Tag: amy adams

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

    My first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards are underway!

    We are not even a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation. These are my opening glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Actress. When I presented my first picks in April of 2025, it produced the most eventual nominees among the quartet of acting races. At this impossibly early stage, I correctly had the eventual winner Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) in the quintet. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were listed in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) was not mentioned.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This inaugural post has Renate Reinsve getting a second nod in a row for Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Julianne Moore (No One Cares) contending for the first time since her victory in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Mikey Madison, I’m projecting 2024’s victor in the category for Anora will be up again for The Social Reckoning. Then there’s Sandra Hüller. She’s a threat to get in for Fatherland or Rose (for which she’s already won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival). At press time, I’ve got her making the cut for the latter. That’s in addition to my forecast that Hüller nabs a Supporting Actress nomination for Digger.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    Sandra Hüller, Rose

    Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    Amy Adams, At the Sea

    Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    Penélope Cruz, Bunker

    Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

    Mason Reeves, Josephine

    Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Oscar Predictions: At the Sea

    Kornél Mundruczó’s drama At the Sea casts Amy Adams as a fresh out of rehab woman adjusting to family life. Costars include Murray Bartlett, Brett Goldstein, Chloe East, Dan Levy, Jenny Slate, and Rainn Wilson. Sea premiered at the Berlin Film Festival where Rose Byrne won Best Actress last year for If I Had Legs I’d Lick You before nabbing an Oscar nod.

    Adams is a six-time nominee at the Academy with five supporting mentions for Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter, The Master, and Vice. Her sole leading try came in 2013 for American Hustle. She probably came darn close to another nom for 2016’s Arrival but was surprisingly snubbed. Recent starring turns in The Woman in the Window and Nightbitch have fizzled with awards voters.

    That should hold true with Sea. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is a lowly 38% and this should be lost in the shuffle when the Academy is filling out ballots next year. A long sought victory for Adams will have to wait. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

    Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:

    98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

    I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

    Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

    Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

    Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

    Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

    Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

    Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.

    After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.

    The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.

    Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.

    Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.

    My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:

    Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

    Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

    Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

    America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

    Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

    Greta Lee, Late Fame

    Nia Long, Michael

    Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Emily Watson, Hamnet

    Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:

    2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous

    2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park

    2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago

    2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

    2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt

    2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

    2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter

    2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help

    2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

    Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.

    A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.

    Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.

    Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.

    Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.

    One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.

    So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 10th Edition

    My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.

    Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)

    13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)

    16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)

    17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)

    18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)

    19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)

    20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)

    21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)

    22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)

    23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)

    24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)

    25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Die, My Love

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)

    13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Amy Adams, At the Sea

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)

    11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

    11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Ella McKay

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

    5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)

    11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

    3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Timestamp

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    The Rivals of Amziah King

    Wicked: For Good

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Snow White

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked: For Good

    Frankenstein

    A House of Dynamite

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Superman

    Mother Mary

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    F1

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Fantastic Four: First Steps

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

    That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    14 Nominations

    Sinners

    11 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    8 Nominations

    Sentimental Value

    7 Nominations

    After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme

    6 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

    4 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family

    3 Nominations

    It Was Just an Accident

    2 Nominations

    Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

    Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

    There are changes to discuss:

    1. In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
    2. In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
    3. In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
    4. A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

    16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

    17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

    18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

    19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

    20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

    21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

    22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

    23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

    24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

    25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

    Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

    13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

    11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

    15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

    11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

    13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

    14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nouvelle Vague

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

    15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Highest 2 Lowest

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

    3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

    4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Alabama Solution

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

    4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    F1

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

    10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jay Kelly

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Marty Supreme

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jay Kelly

    Marty Supreme

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

    4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

    7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    TBD from Mother Mary

    “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    One Battle After Another

    The Phoenician Scheme

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    One Battle After Another

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

    And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    14 Nominations

    Sinners

    10 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    9 Nominations

    Sentimental Value

    7 Nominations

    Bugonia, Frankenstein

    6 Nominations

    After the Hunt

    5 Nominations

    Marty Supreme, Rental Family

    4 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

    3 Nominations

    One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    2 Nominations

    F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

    While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.

    In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.

    Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)

    16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)

    17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)

    18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)

    19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)

    21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)

    22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)

    23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)

    24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

    25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Lucy Liu, Rosemead

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

    5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)

    12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

    Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)

    11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

    13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Hedda

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

    3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)

    10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Love That Remains

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Six Billion Dollar Man

    The Librarians

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Sentimental Value

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    One Battle After Another

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Bugonia

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

    4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)

    7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Marty Supreme

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sinners

    And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

    14 Nomnations

    Sinners

    10 Nominations

    Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

    8 Nominations

    After the Hunt, Frankenstein

    7 Nominations

    Marty Supreme

    6 Nominations

    Bugonia

    5 Nominations

    Hamnet

    4 Nominations

    Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    3 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

    2 Nominatons

    Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

    We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

    I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

    Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

    Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

    As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

    Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

    9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

    16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

    17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

    18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

    19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

    21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

    22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

    23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

    24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

    25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Smashing Machine

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

    12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

    Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

    10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

    11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

    12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

    15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Akira Emoto, Rental Family

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value

    2. After the Hunt

    3. Jay Kelly

    4. Sinners

    5. Marty Supreme

    Other Possibilities:

    6. It Was Just an Accident

    7. Sorry, Baby

    8. The Rivals of Amziah King

    9. The Secret Agent

    10. Ann Lee

    11. Rental Family

    12. Ella McCay

    13. Is This Thing On?

    14. Nouvelle Vague

    15. A House of Dynamite

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Hamnet

    2. Bugonia

    3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    4. One Battle After Another

    5. No Other Choice

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein

    7. Wicked: For Good

    8. The Life of Chuck

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. Train Dreams

    11. Die, My Love

    12. Late Fame

    13. Highest 2 Lowest

    14. Hedda

    15. The Smashing Machine

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value

    2. It Was Just an Accident

    3. The Secret Agent

    4. No Other Choice

    5. The President’s Cake

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sirát

    7. Sound of Falling

    8. Left-Handed Girl

    9. Nouvelle Vague

    10. The Love That Remains

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zootopia 2

    2. Arco

    3. Elio

    4. Scarlet

    5. In Your Dreams

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Animal Farm

    7. A Magnificent Life

    8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

    9. KPop Demon Hunters

    10. Ne Zha 2

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor

    2. Seeds

    3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

    4. Cutting Through Rocks

    5. Deaf President Now!

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

    7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

    8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

    9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

    10. The Librarians

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. After the Hunt

    3. Wicked: For Good

    4. Sentimental Value

    5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jay Kelly

    7. Marty Supreme

    8. The Rivals of Amziah King

    9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Bugonia

    4. Marty Supreme

    5. The Rivals of Amziah King

    Other Possibilities:

    6. F1

    7. Sentimental Value

    8. Nouvelle Vague

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    10. Wicked: For Good

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Sinners

    4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    5. Hamnet

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ann Lee

    7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    8. Mother Mary

    9. Snow White

    10. One Battle After Another

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Marty Supreme

    3. Sentimental Value

    4. Bugonia

    5. F1

    Other Possibilities:

    6. After the Hunt

    7. Wicked: For Good

    8. One Battle After Another

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein

    2. Wicked: For Good

    3. Sinners

    4. The Smashing Machine

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. 28 Years Later

    7. Bugonia

    8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. Wolf Man

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Bugonia

    3. After the Hunt

    4. Frankenstein

    5. Wicked: For Good

    Other Possibilities:

    6. One Battle After Another

    7. F1

    8. Sentimental Value

    9. The Rivals of Amziah King

    10. Marty Supreme

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    5. TBD from Zootopia 2

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

    7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

    9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

    10. TBD from Mother Mary

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Sinners

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Bugonia

    7. One Battle After Another

    8. Marty Supreme

    9. The Phoenician Scheme

    10. Ann Lee

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1

    2. Sinners

    3. Wicked: For Good

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    5. Warfare

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    9. Frankenstein

    10. Superman

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    2. Wicked: For Good

    3. Superman

    4. Frankenstein

    5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    7. F1

    8. How to Train Your Dragon

    9. Tron: Ares

    10. Sinners

    Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

    14 Nominations

    Sinners

    11 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    9 Nominations

    Sentimental Value

    8 Nominations

    After the Hunt

    7 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

    6 Nominatons

    Bugonia

    4 Nominations

    Hamnet, Jay Kelly

    3 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    2 Nominatons

    F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 22nd Edition

    As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.

    While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.

    I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.

    The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

    10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)

    15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)

    16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)

    17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)

    18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

    19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)

    20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)

    21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

    22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

    23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)

    24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)

    25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Sound of Falling

    Nouvelle Vague

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

    14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)

    Best Actress

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)

    14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

    Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)

    10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Emily Watson, Hamnet

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

    Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another