Tag: A Different Man

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

    This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

    After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

    After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

    After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

    These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

    We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

    BEST PICTURE

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

    Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

    Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

    It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

    PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

    Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

    Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

    Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

    PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

    Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

    This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

    Runner-Up: A Real Pain

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

    Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

    PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

    Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

    PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

    Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

    PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

    Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

    The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

    PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

    Runner-Up: Porcelain War

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

    Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Nosferatu

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

    Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

    PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

    Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

    PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

    Runner-Up: Anora

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    All signs point to The Substance.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

    Runner-Up: Wicked

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

    Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

    PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

    Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

    If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

    PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST SOUND

    A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

    Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

    This should be Dune‘s other victory.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

    Runner-Up: Better Man

    And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

    4 Wins

    The Brutalist

    2 Wins

    Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

    1 Win

    Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain

    Oscars: The Case of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other Actor nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.

    Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

    None

    The Case for Sebastian Stan:

    As Donald Trump building out his real estate career, Stan embodied the future President with BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations in tow.

    The Case Against Sebastian Stan:

    Making the Oscar quintet was a question mark since he probably split votes with his other heralded 2024 work in A Different Man. For that role, he took home the Golden Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy) while losing the Actor in a Drama prize and the BAFTA to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Stan did not make the cut at Critics Choice or SAG.

    The Verdict:

    Brody and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) are out front and Stan is not considered a threat to either of them.

    My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Supporting Actress and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez…

    Oscars: The Case of Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
    Oscars: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
    Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
    Oscars: The Case of Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

    30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

    The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

    For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

    Picture: 5/10

    Director: 8/10

    Actress: 6/10

    Actor: 6/10

    Supporting Actress: 8/10

    Supporting Actor: 9/10

    Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

    Best Picture

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Anora

    Best Director

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

    PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

    PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

    Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

    PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

    PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

    PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

    Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

    All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

    Runner-Up: Flow

    BEST COMEDY

    Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

    PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

    Runner-Up: Saturday Night

    BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

    Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

    PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

    Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

    BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

    Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST EDITING

    Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

    PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

    Runner-Up: Wicked

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST SCORE

    The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

    PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST SONG

    “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

    PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

    PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

    Runner-Up: Better Man

    That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

    4 Wins

    The Brutalist

    3 Wins

    Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    2 Wins

    A Real Pain

    1 Win

    Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

    97th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

    Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.

    As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.

    Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?

    BEST PICTURE

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

    How I Did: 9/10

    The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

    How I Did: 4/5

    DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

    How I Did: 5/5

    The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    How I Did: 5/5

    The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    How I Did: 5/5

    Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    How I Did: 5/5

    Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

    How I Did: 5/5

    This is where Anora is expected to shine.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

    How I Did: 5/5

    This is where Conclave is expected to shine.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    How I Did: 3/5

    After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 5/5

    This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

    How I Did: 3/5

    Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

    How I Did: 3/5

    My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

    How I Did: 4/5

    Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    How I Did: 3/5

    I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    How I Did: 5/5

    This is where The Substance could materialize.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 3/5

    It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

    How I Did: 3/5

    “Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

    How I Did: 5/5

    This could be a Wicked win.

    BEST SOUND

    A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 3/5

    My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

    How I Did: 4/5

    My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?

    And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.

    Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:

    13 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Wicked

    8 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave

    6 Nominations

    Anora

    5 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    97th Academy Awards: FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

    And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.

    Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.

    Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.

    BEST PICTURE

    Anora

    The Brutalist

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Dune: Part Two

    Emilia Pérez

    Nickel Boys

    A Real Pain

    The Substance

    Wicked

    Runner-Up: Sing Sing

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

    Sean Baker, Anora

    Edward Berger, Conclave

    Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

    Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

    Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

    Mikey Madison, Anora

    Demi Moore, The Substance

    Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

    Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

    Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

    Ariane Grande, Wicked

    Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

    Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

    Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Yura Borisov, Anora

    Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

    Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora

    The Brutalist

    A Real Pain

    September 5

    The Substance

    Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Emilia Pérez

    Nickel Boys

    Sing Sing

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Emilia Pérez

    I’m Still Here

    Kneecap

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    Vermiglio

    Runner-Up: Flow

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flow

    Inside Out 2

    Memoir of a Snail

    Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    The Wild Robot

    Runner-Up: Moana 2

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Daughters

    No Other Land

    Porcelain War

    Sugarcane

    Will & Harper

    Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Dune: Part Two

    Nosferatu

    Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    A Complete Unknown

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Nosferatu

    Wicked

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Brutalist

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Dune: Part Two

    Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: Anora

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    A Different Man

    Emilia Pérez

    Nosferatu

    The Substance

    Wicked

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist

    Challengers

    Conclave

    Emilia Pérez

    Nosferatu

    Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

    “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

    “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

    “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

    “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist

    Conclave

    Dune: Part Two

    Nosferatu

    Wicked

    Runner-Up: Gladiator II

    BEST SOUND

    Blitz

    A Complete Unknown

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Wicked

    Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Alien: Romulus

    Better Man

    Dune: Part Two

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    Twisters

    Runner-Up: Wicked

    That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave

    7 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two, Wicked

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance

    3 Nominations

    A Real Pain

    2 Nominations

    The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio

    I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

    My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

    The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

    Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.

    However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).

    Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).

    There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).

    That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

    Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.

    Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.

    Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.

    Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.

    For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.

    OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

    My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

    The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

    Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.

    There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.

    So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.

    That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.

    There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.

    With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

    Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.

    Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.

    Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.

    Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.

    Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

    There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: January 10th Edition

    Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.

    Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.

    The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.

    So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.

    There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

    Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).

    More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

    6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

    12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

    8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

    Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    A Different Man

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Hit Man

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked

    Best Costume Design

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Nickel Boys

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

    12 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Conclave

    8 Nominations

    Wicked

    6 Nominations

    Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two

    5 Nominations

    The Substance

    4 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    82nd Golden Globes Awards Reaction

    Before we get to the headlines (and certainly there are), let’s dispense with some quick takes on the 82nd Golden Globes Awards ceremony. Nikki Glaser did a very good job hosting and I’d expect to see her back. Seth Rogen correctly pointed out that the camera angle on the presenters tonight was awkward. And Vin Diesel made the evening awkward too when he said hi from the stage to Dwayne Johnson. They famously did not get along working together on Fast and Furious franchise features.

    Back to the awards. I went 9 for 15 in my picks. Quite frankly, I would’ve been pleased with getting over half in this unpredictable ceremony and I did so I’ll take it. Emilia Pérez had a big night with four victories. So did The Brutalist with three. Anora… not so much.

    Jacques Audiard’s Pérez took three prizes I predicted it would in Non-English Language Film, Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), and Original Song (“El Mal”). Yet I had it falling short to Sean Baker’s Anora for Best Musical/Comedy and it prevailed. Has Pérez‘s stock risen? Probably.

    Those who have followed my Oscar predictions on the blog will notice I’ve never had Anora listed in first in Best Picture. A lot of other prognosticators have. I’m not patting myself on the back. This is one of the more unpredictable seasons in memory. I’ve just never bought the narrative that Anora will take the grand prize and tonight fuels it.

    A bigger surprise than Anora losing Musical/Comedy, in my view, was Mikey Madison not taking Actress. That went instead to Demi Moore in The Substance, who gave the strongest acceptance speech of the night. You have to wonder if this makes Moore the frontrunner. I have had Madison listed for weeks in 1st place for the Academy’s Actress statue and that could change when I update my picks in the next couple of days (hopefully tomorrow). Anora also didn’t get Screenplay and I thought it would. That went instead to Conclave.

    After Conclave‘s screenplay award, I thought maybe it would go onto take Best Drama. However, Globe voters opted for The Brutalist (which my was pick). Its maker Brady Corbet won Director. I also had it forecasted for Original Score but that went to Challengers in a surprise call. I’ve had The Brutalist placed in 1st for months in BP for the Oscars. Interestingly, in the previous ten years, only 3 GG Drama winners correlated with Oscar (Moonlight, Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). I still think it’s the odds on favorite.

    Adrien Brody did give The Brutalist a third Globe in Best Actor and I went with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. This could signal Brody’s performance will be favored in ceremonies to come. I also missed Best Actress (Drama). I went with Angelina Jolie in Maria while my runner-up Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) made the podium walk.

    With Moore and Torres victorious over Madison and Jolie, the Oscar Best Actress is looking wide open with several hopefuls jockeying for position.

    Let’s run down some races I got right. Kieran Culkin is your Supporting Actor for A Real Pain. The hard to figure out Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy derby is one I was lucky with when Sebastian Stan in A Different Man was picked. Wicked took the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award. And I will pat myself on the back for going with Flow in Animated Feature instead of The Wild Robot.

    So where do we stand now with Oscar as I prepare a new forecast? Anora is down. Emilia is up. The Brutalist holds strong. Demi Moore could be a real threat in Actress. And I think Dwayne Johnson still dislikes Vin Diesel…