Tag Archives: Brian Tyree Henry

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction

An iconic superhero swings into theaters in yet another iteration next Friday when SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse debuts. This time around, the friendly neighborhood character is animated in a world where multiple individuals can don the spandex. Phil Lord (part of the team behind The Lego Movie) shares writing credit along with co-director Peter Ramsey. Shameik Moore and Jake Johnson both provide voice work for Spidey. Other actors behind the mic include Hailee Steinfeld, Mahershala Ali, Liev Schreiber, Brian Tyree Henry, and Lily Tomlin.

Sony Pictures certainly has reviews on their side as this stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics even claim it’s the overall best of the series (this is now the seventh stand-alone entry focused on the Marvel web slinger). It appears destined for an Oscar nod in Best Animated Feature.

I believe the raves and familiarity with its title character should propel this to pleasing returns. With projections in the $30-$40 million range, I’m estimating SpiderVerse will premiere on the high-end of that spectrum and likely top it.

SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse opening weekend prediction: $48.4 million

For my The Mule prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/05/the-mule-box-office-prediction/

For my Mortal Engines prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/06/mortal-engines-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Over the past 16 years, we’ve witnessed numerous iterations of the famed web slinging superhero Spider-Man. From Tobey Maguire to Andrew Garfield to Tom Holland and two franchise reboots, the character has been omnipresent in our multiplexes. So the idea of an animated version might have seemed like overkill when Sony announced SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse, which creates a world in which multiple people can be the iconic character.

Critical reaction out today suggests otherwise. SpiderVerse stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with over 30 reviews in. Some write-ups claim it’s the best Spidey feature since 2004’s SpiderMan 2. Select others claim it’s the best of the whole bunch (this will be seventh stand-alone entry).

Will Oscar notice? It seems highly likely. That would mean a nod in Best Animated Feature. It marks a fourth near “sure thing “ in that race, including current box office champ Ralph Breaks the Internet and Isle of Dogs. The raves bestowed upon this suggests it could even stand a better chance at winning than those pictures. Yet it could be a tall order to overcome the Pixar juggernaut involving other superheroes – Incredibles 2.

Bottom line: SpiderVerse is into the Animated Feature mix in a major way. It’s out stateside on December 14. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Widows Box Office Prediction

Widows is Steve McQueen’s follow-up to 2013’s Oscar winning 12 Years a Slave and it boasts an impressive cast and its own awards buzz. Viola Davis headlines the heist thriller alongside Michelle Rodriguez, Elizabeth Debicki, Cynthia Erivo, Colin Farrell, Brian Tyree Henry, Daniel Kaluuya, Jacki Weaver, Carrie Coon, Robert Duvall, and Liam Neeson.

Opening next weekend, the film sits at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could potentially contend in Best Picture, Actress (Davis), Supporting Actor (Kaluuya) and its Adapted Screenplay from Gone Girl and Sharp Objects writer Gillian Flynn. So how will that translate to box office bucks?

I believe the likelihood is that Widows will succeed in appealing to action fans and manage to bring in a sizable female audience. Yet it should also be the type of performer that experiences solid holds from weekend to weekend and not necessarily have a huge opening. Mid teens appears to be the correct forecast for its start.

Widows opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million

For my Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/06/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-box-office-prediction/

For my Instant Family prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/instant-family-box-office-prediction/

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 18th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Thursday predictions in the major categories for this year’s Oscars! Here’s some tidbits about developments over the past week:

  • Damien Chazelle’s First Man experienced a lackluster liftoff at the box office this past weekend with just $16 million (about $5 million or so below expectations). Will this alter its course for numerous nominations? Short answer: probably not. However, I do have it dropping spots in Picture, Director, and Actor while still predicting nods for all three. Claire Foy remains at #2 behind Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) for Supporting Actress.
  • Speaking of that category, it will finally confirmed this week regarding placement of performers for The Favourite. Olivia Colman will compete in lead Actress with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in Supporting. As I have projected for weeks, I think that bodes well for all three actresses in garnering nods.
  • Beautiful Boy performed very well in limited release last week and I have vaulted Timothee Chalamet back to the #1 spot in the fluid Supporting Actor race.

And with that – here’s where I think Oscar standings are at this moment in time…

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Green Book (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 3)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

11. Widows (PR: 10)

12. The Mule (PR: 12)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)

14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 16)

15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)

16. Boy Erased (PR: 14)

17. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)

18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)

19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)

20. Eighth Grade (PR: 22)

21. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 25)

22. Beautiful Boy (PR: 23)

23. The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Front Runner (PR: 24)

Dropped Out:

At Eternity’s Gate

The Sisters Brothers

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 10)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 13)

12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)

13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

8. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 9)

9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 11)

11. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)

12. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 15)

14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)

15. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk 

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 11)

11. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)

12. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)

13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 14)

14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 13)

15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Keira Knightley, Colette

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)

10. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)

11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

12. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 11)

13. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Bradley Cooper, The Mule

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

7. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 8)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)

12. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 10)

13. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)

14. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)

15. Dianne Wiest, The Mule (PR: 12)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 9)

10. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

11. Beautiful Boy (PR: 14)

12. Black Panther (PR: 11)

13. The Hate U Give (PR: 12)

14. The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Disobedience (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Wildlife

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

5. Vice (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 6)

7. First Reformed (PR: 7)

8. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. The Mule (PR: 8)

11. Private Life (PR: 11)

12. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stan and Ollie (PR: 14)

14. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 12)

15. Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mid90s

Capernaum

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 11th Edition

Back at ya with my weekly Oscar predictions! Here’s some tidbits that have transpired over the past seven days:

  • While the official review embargo has not lifted, Bohemian Rhapsody has screened and early word-of-mouth is out. Reaction for this film itself seems mixed and it has caused the Freddie Mercury biopic to drop to 25th in my BP rankings and out of my Original Screenplay possibilities. On the other hand, chatter about Rami Malek’s performance is terrific. For the first time, he enters my top 5 predicted Actor nominees, knocking out Willem Dafoe’s work in At Eternity’s Gate. One thing seems certain: the lead actor race is looking very crowded at the moment.
  • Speaking of that category, it was confirmed that Stephan James from If Beale Street Could Talk will be campaigned for in that category (I’ve had him listed in Supporting previously).
  • In Best Actress, I have switched Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) back to #1 over runner-up Glenn Close in The Wife. This appears to be a close contest between the two at the moment.
  • There is still uncertainty about category placement for the three women of The Favourite. Some chatter has Emma Stone as the obvious Actress candidate along with Olivia Colman. Everyone seems to agree that Rachel Weisz will land in Supporting Actress. For now, I’m keeping Colman in Actress with Stone/Weisz in Supporting, but changes could happen.
  • Also in Supporting Actress, I am now listing Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) at #1 over Claire Foy (First Man).
  • Widows is just on the outside of my predicted nominees in a number of races including Picture, Actress (Viola Davis), and Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya). I feel it will get nominated for something and I am including it in Adapted Screenplay over First Man.

And with that, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Green Book (PR: 5)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 11)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. The Mule (PR: 15)

13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 16)

14. Boy Erased (PR: 12)

15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)

17. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)

18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 19)

19. Leave No Trace (PR: 23)

20. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 20)

21. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 21)

22. Eighth Grade (PR: 25)

23. Beautiful Boy (PR: 22)

24. The Front Runner (PR: 24)

25. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 18)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)

4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)

10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

11. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 13)

13. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)

14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 12)

15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 15)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 5)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 11)

10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)

11. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)

12. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

13. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 13)

15. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 8)

8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 11)

10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)

11. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)

12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)

13. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 14)

14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 15)

15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 12)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)

10.  Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)

11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)

13. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bradley Cooper, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Jason Clarke, First Man

David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

7. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

9. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)

10. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

11. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

12. Dianne Wiest, The Mule (PR: 15)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)

14. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 12)

15. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

5. Widows (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 4)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 9)

10. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

11. Black Panther (PR: 10)

12. The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Disobedience (PR: 12)

14. Beautiful Boy (PR: 13)

15. Wildlife (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Sisters Brothers

The Mule (Moved to Original Screenplay)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. The Favourite (PR: 1)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Vice (PR: 4)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 6)

7. First Reformed (PR: 7)

8. The Mule (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

10. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 9)

11. Private Life (PR: 11)

12. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)

13. Mid90s (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stan and Ollie (PR: 15)

15. Capernaum (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hereditary

Bohemian Rhapsody

Ben Is Back

Oscar Watch: If Beale Street Could Talk

One of the most eagerly awaited titles screening at the Toronto Film Festival has premiered in the form of If Beale Street Could Talk, the third directorial feature from Barry Jenkins. As you may recall, his second film Moonlight took home the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2016 in rather memorable fashion over La La Land.

Beale Street is based on a James Baldwin novel and set in mid 70s Harlem. The pic sports a large ensemble cast led by Stephan James and Kiki Layne alongside Regina Hall, Colman Domingo, Teyonah Parris, Pedro Pascal, Diego Luna, Ed Skrein, and Dave Franco. Early reviews suggest this could be a player in multiple categories, including Best Picture and Director. In down the line races, it could be recognized for its score from Nicholas Britell as well as Cinematography, Editing, and Production Design. Jenkins could also contend for his Adapted Screenplay. While most critical reaction is strong, some have said it doesn’t quite match up to Moonlight. That said, we shall see if that particular buzz changes in the coming weeks and I feel pretty secure marking it for Picture consideration.

As for the cast, that’s a little murkier. James and Layne are receiving positive notices, but both the lead acting races seem awfully crowded. Both Hall and Parris could contend in Supporting Actress, but that too is far from guaranteed.

Bottom line: If Beale Street Could Talk likely did what it needed to do to be in the Picture and Director mix, while acting nods are a bit less clear.

The film opens domestically on November 30. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

White Boy Rick Box Office Prediction

After a debut at the Telluride Film Festival that garnered mixed reactions, White Boy Rick is out in theaters next weekend. Directed by Yann Demange, it tells the true crime story of 14-year-old Richard Wersche Jr. (Richie Merritt) who became a FBI informant and drug kingpin in Detroit in the 1980s. Matthew McConaughey plays his father with a supporting cast that includes Jennifer Jason Leigh, Bel Powley, Bryan Tyree Henry, Rory Cochrane, Bruce Dern, and Piper Laurie.

As mentioned, festival reaction wasn’t overwhelmingly positive and Rick currently stands at 63% on Rotten Tomatoes. Had the film managed to generate awards buzz, my estimate might be slightly higher than it is. I believe this could struggle to hit double digits out of the gate for a so-so debut.

White Boy Rick opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my The Predator prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/the-predator-box-office-prediction/

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my Unbroken: Path to Redemption prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/unbroken-path-to-redemption-box-office-prediction/