Eddie Murphy, winner of tonight’s Cecil B. DeMille lifetime achievement, might have had the best timed Will Smith Oscar slap joke I’ve heard thus far (better than that of host Jerrod Carmichael). Mr. Murphy being funny was not a surprise. And there weren’t a whole lotta surprises for the cinematic victors at the 80th Golden Globes Awards… with a couple of exceptions.
I went 10/14 on my picks, but two of those misses happened to be the biggest prizes of all. After being snubbed for the shortlist of 16 filmmakers for BAFTA’s directing award, Steven Spielberg and his autobiographical The Fabelmans had an impressive and perhaps needed showing this evening. He won Best Director (which I did predict) and he capped the night by taking Best Motion Picture – Drama. I didn’t predict that as I went with Elvis instead.
The picture with tonight’s best showing was The Banshees of Inisherin at three podium trips. As expected, Colin Farrell was named Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy and Martin McDonagh took Best Screenplay. Banshees also emerged in Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy over my favored Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The news wasn’t all bad for Everything as Michelle Yeoh was Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy and Ke Huy Quan is your Best Supporting Actor. The Banshees victory could spawn some prognosticators switching their vote to it winning the BP Oscar. I’m thinking Everything is still very viable and The Fabelmans did what it needed to make this a three-picture race. Had Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick been your Drama pick, it might’ve surged the buzz for them. It wasn’t to be.
Other than the Motion Picture competitions, my other two misses were for Score and Non-English Language Film. In the former, Babylon was selected over my predicted Women Talking. For the latter, it produced the night’s only shocker as Argentina, 1985 was named instead of RRR (what I went with) and All Quiet on the Western Front (what plenty of others went with).
As for the remaining races I got right – Cate Blanchett is Best Actress (Drama) for Tár while Angela Bassett is Supporting Actress for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Austin Butler got the sole Elvis victory as Best Actor (Drama). Guillermo del Toro saw his version of Pinocchio be crowned Animated Feature. Finally, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR is Best Original Song over tunes from heavy hitters like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Lady Gaga.
Bottom line: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Fabelmans have been my top 3 possibilities for Best Picture for many weeks. Nothing that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did tonight changed that dynamic.
We’ve got a busy few days coming up with SAG and DGA nominations tomorrow and Critics Choice Awards airing Sunday. I’ll have my updated Oscar predictions up on Monday!
After controversies kept the 79th ceremony off of the air in 2021, the 80th Golden Golden Awards is set to air on NBC Tuesday night with Jerrod Carmichael hosting. When it comes down to winners for their contribution to film, we can safely bet on one. Eddie Murphy will receive the Cecil B. DeMille Award for his four decades of work onscreen. We can probably safely bet on more than just Eddie (Colin Farrell comes to mind).
Most categories are tougher to project. There are a number of races where I don’t feel confident with my arrived at winner. Quite frankly, if I go 7/14 this year, I’ll be content.
For each category, I’ll give you my pick and my runner-up. Unlike the Oscars, you won’t get detailed analysis though I will say here’s some of the categories that are tough:
Best Motion Picture (Drama) is a four-way race between everything not named Tár while Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) is a genuine two-way competition between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The Fabelmans might be fading with the Academy and that could hinder Spielberg’s chance at Director. The legendary filmmaker was very notably snubbed from the sixteen shortlist possibilities at BAFTA. However, that happened after voting had closed with HFPA. I still give him the slight edge with the Globes, but watch out for the Daniels or Baz Luhrmann.
In the lead acting races, three are easy to pick. Actor in a Drama is not as I think it’s a coin flip between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. My selection comes down to what I chose for Best Picture.
I don’t think Carey Mulligan takes Supporting Actress for She Said. The other four are all viable. While Kerry Condon might be the soft favorite for Oscar, I could see the HFPA going with a more famous performer with a celebrated body of work. Whether that’s Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis is an excellent question.
RRR could take Non-English Language Film and Song though the runners-up are both strong spoilers. Women Talking, The Fabelmans, and Babylon are all totally feasible for Score.
All right – enough talk! Time to (yikes) choose…
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Babylon
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s say Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
Predicted Winner: RRR
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Fabelmans
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers in terms of wins:
3 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Wins
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, RRR
1 Win
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking
This year’s crop of Supporting Actress hopefuls is a vast one and easily the toughest to predict of the four acting races. Earlier in the week, the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards named their nominees. For Supporting Actress, only three performers managed nods in both: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin, and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Additional contenders for the Globe are Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Carey Mulligan (She Said). For Critics Choice – it is Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Of the 8 actresses vying for victory, there are two surprising women not being talked about. Hong Chau (The Whale) and Claire Foy (Women Talking) were snubbed by the Globes and Critics Choice. I have had Foy listed at #1 in my Oscar picks for many weeks and I’ve had Chau in and out of my high five. Their double omissions put them at a disadvantage. There are only six Supporting Actress Oscar nominees in the past decade who missed both the Globes and Critics Choice: Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Laura Dern (Wild), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), and Marina de Tavira (Roma). It is worthy of note the other two were from just last year – Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) and Judi Dench (Belfast). None of them won the Oscar so you can bet Foy will at least drop from #1 when I update my predictions this weekend.
On the flip side, there are also 6 women who did land Globe and Critics mentions and were ignored by the Academy. They are Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year, Helen Mirren from Trumbo, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, and Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.
The two I’m holding back on are quite interesting…
Hong Chau in 2017’s Downsizing and Claire Foy in 2018’s First Man. They were both expected to pick up nods from the Oscar voters and didn’t. In 2022, they find themselves in the opposite situation. After being left off the ballots for two major precursors, they could miss a nomination and no one would be taken aback. Yet as the Academy showed with Foy’s Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley last year and Dame Judi, this branch could go their own way and include either (especially after noticeably ignoring them a few years back).
I’d rather be Bassett, Condon, and Curtis right now when it comes to viability. For Chau and Foy – the odds aren’t in their favor like they were five and four years back. Those odds didn’t help them then. Perhaps their longer ones will prove to their benefit this time around.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after a controversial couple of years which resulted in no aired telecast for the last ceremony, is moving forward with Jerrod Carmichael hosting the show on NBC in a month. The nominations for the 14 cinematic races were unveiled this morning.
I went 54 for 70 on my picks – an improvement over my previous 2021 performance of 49/70. The big winner: Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Its 8 nods led all pictures and landed mentions everywhere it was expected to.
On the flip side, it was a disappointing day for Women Talking. Sarah Polley’s expected Oscar contender managed two nods (Screenplay and Score) and missed out on several races where it was thought to be viable.
Let’s take the competitions one by one with my thoughts, shall we?
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Per above, the surprise here is Women Talking not making the cut. I had it in instead of Avatar (which is proving itself to be a highly likely hopeful for Oscar’s BP derby). While The Fabelmans could be considered a soft frontrunner, I would say everything but Tár has a shot to win.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 4/5
I went with The Menu over Triangle but the latter’s inclusion was not unexpected. This is almost certainly a battle between Banshees and Everything.
Best Director
Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Like in Best Drama, I went with Women Talking and its maker Sarah Polley instead of James Cameron. Also like that race, Spielberg might be favored but the others could upset the legend.
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Danielle Deadwyler (Till) failing to make the quintet is unexpected as is de Armas’s nod in the Marilyn Monroe biopic (which garnered plenty of poor reviews). You’re going to want to bet on Blanchett in this one.
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
How I Did: 3/5
Jackman and Pope in over my selections of Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Mr. Cruise whiffing is noticeable. Perhaps the HFPA is still salty about him giving back his Globes during the height of their controversies. Elvis is the only picture in this group that received more than 1 nomination and Butler could certainly emerge victorious. So could Fraser.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywher All at Once)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This went as anticipated and should continue that way with Yeoh taking the trophy in January.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) instead of Driver. It doesn’t matter much who the other four gentlemen are. This is Farrell’s to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
How I Did: 2/5 (ouch)
Supporting Actress has been a head scratcher all year as I’ve done Oscar projections. That proved true today with my poor performance. I went with Hong Chau (The Whale), Claire Foy (Women Talking), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) instead of Bassett, de Leon, and Mulligan. I’d say any of these contestants could win in this wide open field.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
How I Did: 3/5
I had Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Tom Hanks (yet again for Elvis), but Koeghan and Redmayne made it. Quan is probably out front but I wouldn’t rule Gleeson out.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Finally we get something for Women Talking. Yet this race (like Musical/Comedy) is probably either Banshees or Everything.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-Oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Inu-Oh is the surprise (I said The Bad Guys instead). Pinocchio is favored but I wouldn’t discount Marcel (which is picking up critics prizes).
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: All Quiet on theWestern Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
How I Did: 4/5
This could be a fascinating one. I don’t see Argentina or Close winning (which I left out for Bardo). The other 3 could.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
How I Did: 4/5
This is where I should’ve left Avatar out as Banshees got in instead. This could be a close one and I’m not ready to pick a leader.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
How I Did: 4/5
Pop superstar Billie Eilish and “Nobody Like U” was left off for pop superstar Taylor Swift and “Carolina”. Don’t be shocked if this comes down to pop superstars Lady Gaga for “Hold My Hand” and Rihanna for “Lift Me Up”.
That means the following features nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
5 Nominations
Babylon, The Fabelmans
3 Nominations
Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Menu, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Close, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Good Nurse, The Inspection, Inu-Oh, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, She Said, The Son, Turning Red, The Whale, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
After a couple years of major controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s big shindig is back on your television screens with the 80th Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony honoring the year’s best in film and TV returns to NBC on January 10th and the nominations are out on Monday, December 12th.
Readers of my blog are aware that I update my Oscar predictions every week to two weeks. With the Globes, it’s just one shot. As an aside, I don’t forecast the small screen races.
There are 14 categories to consider. As you may recall, the Globes split Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture and the lead acting derbies. This is not the case with director or supporting. Furthermore, this ceremony has a sole Screenplay race while the Academy differentiates between original and adapted works.
Let’s get to it! For each competition, I’m also giving you my alternate. On Monday, I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts on the nominations and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Menu
Alternate: Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor – Drama
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate: Hugh Jackman, The Son
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
Alternate: Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Women Talking
Alternate: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Animated Motion Picture
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate: My Father’s Dragon
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Decision to Leave
RRR
Alternate: Saint Omer
Best Original Score
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Song
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Alternate: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
And that means I’m projecting the following number of mentions for these pictures:
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
5 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Elvis
3 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Menu, Tár
2 Nominations
RRR, Turning Red, The Whale
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, A Man Called Otto, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Till, The Woman King
This evening’s Golden Globes ceremony was certainly like no other in recent history. Due to controversies that have fallen upon the Hollywood Foreign Press Association in the past couple of years, the show was not broadcast, not streaming, and no celebrities attended. Reveals of the winners were available via Twitter.
The Globes could still provide a window for what might occur when Oscar nods are out next month. If so, there could be good things coming to the big winners of the evening – West Side Story and The Power of the Dog. They are likely the two that stand the greatest chance to take Best Picture (along with Belfast) and each had key wins tonight. And while Belfast only landed one victory, it was a rather key one.
So how’d I do with my predictions? 9 for 14. That’s about how I thought I’d perform to be honest as the HFPA is a little unpredictable.
Let’s start with what I got right:
West Side Story won Best Musical/Comedy and Ariana DeBose took Supporting Actress.
Kodi-Smit McPhee is Best Supporting Actor for The Power of the Dog. For DeBose and McPhee, it could be the start of healthy runs throughout the season.
Encanto is Best Animated Feature and Drive My Car took Foreign Film. I have both in my #1 positions for the Oscars.
Dune received Best Score and “No Time to Die” won Original Song. At the Academy Awards, I expect Billie vs. Beyonce (for “Be Alive” from King Richard). In round 1, Billie is victorious.
Will Smith’s turn as King Richard is your Best Actor (Drama) while Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick… Boom! is Best Actor (Musical/Comedy). Both were widely expected and the two are anticipated to easily make the cut at the Oscars.
Where I went wrong:
My one true upset pick was Emma Stone in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) for Cruella. I went with the upset because I couldn’t choose between Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) or Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). Zegler took the prize.
I did have Pizza being delivered a Screenplay win, but that went to Belfast. I thought that early award might forecast its win for Best Drama (I picked it) but…
The Power of the Dog won and that’s a pretty significant boost for its Oscar chances. Its maker Jane Campion also was named Best Director and I went with Steven Spielberg for West Side Story.
And perhaps the only true surprise of the evening was Best Actress (Drama) though I did make a point to say that any could win. I predicted Kristen Stewart in Spencer, but Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos was awarded. This points to a real competition at the other shows to come.
Quick take – Dog and Story had solid nights. Smith, DeBose, and Smit-McPhee may have solidified their frontrunner statuses. And Best Actress might be wide open.
I’m used to saying the Golden Globes will air Sunday evening, but that’s not the case in 2022. The ceremony honoring the best of 2021 will come to us in an as yet undetermined format. This is due to various controversies brought to light recently about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and NBC’s decision not to broadcast the show.
However, the show will go on (possibly streaming on your computer) and the Globes still serve as a barometer for what Oscar voters could be thinking in coming weeks. That said, the HFPA is certainly capable of providing surprises. Just last year, Andra Day’s victory in Best Actress (Drama) for The United States vs. Billie Holiday and Jodie Foster as Supporting Actress for The Mauritanian were legitimate upsets.
As a reminder, the Globes split their picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy though not with the supporting derbies or screenplay. I will be making my picks along with runner-up selections while also providing numbers showing the correlation of Globe winners to Oscar recipients in each respective category for the last ten years.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 4 out of last 10 years
Commentary: The HFPA competition for the drama prize is the first major showdown between Oscar frontrunners Belfast and The Power of the Dog. With the international flavor and feel good vibes of the former, I’m picking Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama to come out ahead. If there’s a shocker in store, it could be CODA (which seems to picking up more steam on a weekly basis).
I will admit that picking Belfast to win Drama and take no other awards (as you’ll see below) feels strange. There is recent precedent, however, with 2016’s Moonlight.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner: West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner ratio: 2 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: I wouldn’t count out Licorice Pizza but its miss in Best Director could be telling. West Side Story should be right up HFPA’s alley and its the only feature where its maker made the director cut.
Best Director
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is a tough one. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nod for The Lost Daughter was unexpected and she’s the only contender that I feel stands no chance of winning. Branagh could certainly ride a wave of Belfast love. Villeneuve could be honored for the technical mastery of Dune. And Campion is the hopeful picking up the bulk of critics prizes. Yet I’ll go with the HFPA honoring the legendary Spielberg.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This is the first test to see whether Stewart really is the frontrunner that could sweep through the season. I’m skeptical and I honestly believe any of the performers could take this (I struggled to pick the runner-up as it could be any of them). I wouldn’t put money on it, but I’ll say Stewart manages to nab the crown.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: As you can see, this is a rather reliable predictor of where the Academy could go. For 2021’s features, the ceremonies should boil down to Smith v. Cumberbatch. I don’t think HFPA will pass up a chance to honor one of cinema’s most durable draws for the last 25 years in one of his most acclaimed performances.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)
Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Cruella
Runner-Up: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 3 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: There was an upset last year when Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) emerged over the favored Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. The West Side love extending to Zegler is probably the smartest pick to make. Alana Haim’s work in Pizza could deliver her a victory and she probably should be listed as the runner-up. Yet if there’s any upset, I could see Stone surprising and there’s almost always one during the Globes. Perhaps against my better judgment, I’m going with it.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)
Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
Predicted Winner: Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 1 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Dinklage is a threat though I’ll go with DiCaprio as the runner-up since he’s arguably the biggest star in Hollywood. That said, Garfield (he’s likely #3 in the Oscar contest at the moment) is the most likely winner.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actress)
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Jodie Foster’s win for 2020 came out of nowhere so who really knows? I’ll go with a West Side pick and DeBose. Other than Negga, I could foresee any of these candidates making (theoretical) podium trips.
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Actor)
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 8 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another tricky one in a race where the Globes and Academy typically match. Assuming the Belfast boys split and Affleck isn’t a factor, this comes down to Smit-McPhee vs. Kotsur. A win for either could propel them to a glorious season ahead. I’m really tempted to go with Kotsur, but I’ll say this marks the best opportunity for HFPA to bestow an honor for Dog. This is a coin flip.
Best Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up: Belfast
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 5 out of the last 10 years (counting both Original and Adapted Screenplays at the Oscars)
Commentary: Your guess is as good as mine here. I’m going with a bit of an upset with Pizza, but the smart money is probably on Belfast or Dog. I also wouldn’t count out Aaron Sorkin for Ricardos (he took this category last year for The Trial of the Chicago 7). And Adam McKay could be called up for Don’t Look Up which (despite its mixed reviews) is drawing plenty of ink.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner: Encanto
Runner-Up: Flee
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last years
Commentary: The Globes are capable of unexpected picks here (2019’s Missing Link for example). Don’t be surprised if Flee from Iran gets this, but I’ll go with Disney’s likeliest hopeful of its trio of nominees and that’s Encanto.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
A Hero
Parallel Mothers
Predicted Winner: Drive My Car
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Watch out for Mothers to pull off an upset, but this is Drive My Car‘s race to lose. The Japanese drama has established itself as the frontrunner in international competitions at all ceremonies.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner: Dune
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 7 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: Another race that Mothers could unexpectedly take, I also wouldn’t discount Dispatch or Dog. This should be Dune‘s best opportunity to take a prize though.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Here I Am” from Respect
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Be Alive” from King Richard
Globe Winner to Oscar Winner Ratio: 6 out of the last 10 years
Commentary: This should be the battle of Billie (Eilish) for “Die” vs. Beyonce (it’s just Beyonce) for “Alive” and that should be the dynamic for the Oscars. The HFPA has honored the last two Bond themes for Skyfall and Spectre. I’ll give it a very slight edge.
And there you have it! The Golden Globes will air, err happen, Sunday. I’ll have reaction up on the blog shortly thereafter.
Under a cloud of controversy and uncertainty as to what their January 9th ceremony will even look like (it won’t be on NBC), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominees this morning for the 79th Annual Golden Globe Awards.
Per usual, there were some surprises though no Kate Hudson for Best Actress in Music level one like in 2020. Overall I went 49/70 in my picks for the 14 cinematic races – going perfect in just one derby while striking out 2/5 in two others.
Let’s break them down one by one with some commentary and my initial thoughts on who/what could win:
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Belfast, CODA, Dune, King Richard, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: No shockers here as my runner-up CODA got in over Nightmare Alley. Guillermo del Toro’s noir thriller got zero love from the HFPA and it’ll need to rally with Oscar voters. Belfast and Dog led all nods with seven apiece. Both could vie for the victory with the former perhaps having a slight edge.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, Tick Tick… Boom!, West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Comments: The real mystery here was whether Cyrano or In the Heights would be the third musical of the bunch. I picked correctly. Seeing that Steven Spielberg is the only director in this race nominated, it’s hard to imagine West Side Story not emerging victorious here.
Best Director
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Gyllenhaal’s inclusion was not anticipated and she got in over my selection of Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley. Truth be told, I could see any of the other four hopefuls taking this prize.
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Colman in over Jennifer Hudson (Respect). This could absolutely be the Oscar five. Stewart is the soft frontrunner with any other of the performers viable.
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: Bardem getting in is not all that unexpected but I didn’t see Ali coming. They make the cut over Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley) and Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). This one should boil down to Smith and Cumberbatch.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Marion Cotillard (Annette), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up), Emma Stone (Cruella), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Cotillard over Haley Bennett for Cyrano. As for the favorite, expect West Side Story to carry Zegler.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick… Boom!), Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), Anthony Ramos (In the Heights)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: I went a little out there with my fifth pick of Ryan Reynolds in Free Guy. Hoffman is here instead. Garfield is out in front in this one.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing)
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Negga gets a needed boost (I had Meryl Streep for Don’t Look Up in her slot). If Jodie Foster could win an upset victory last year here for The Mauritanian, any of these performers could win.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: The Golden Globes often go for big names so the fact that Kotsur got in with HFPA bodes well for his Oscar chances. He and Affleck make it over my picks of Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Jared Leto (House of Gucci). Conversely I’d argue that if Leto can’t make it here, his Academy prospects look shaky. Smit-McPhee is picking up critics prizes but this race is wide open in my view.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: The HFPA loves them some Aaron Sorkin and his Ricardos script triumphs over West Side Story. This could be Belfast, Pizza, or Power.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, My Sunny Maad, Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: My Sunny Maad came out of nowhere. Not so much with Raya. They’re in instead of The Mitchells vs. the Machines (which I’m genuinely surprised missed) and Vivo (which I’m not). Don’t discount Flee, but Encanto is the likely winner.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Compartment No. 6, Drive My Car, The Hand of God, A Hero, Parallel Mothers
How I Did: 2/5
Comments: Ouch. Only got Drive My Car and A Hero correct (and they could duke it out for the prize). On the cutting room floor: Flee, Titane, and The Worst Person in the World. Mothers could contend here as well.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Dune, Encanto, The French Dispatch, Parallel Mothers, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 2/5
Comments: The pain continues as I only called Dune and Power correctly. The others are in over Nightmare Alley, Spencer, and The Tragedy of Macbeth. This should be Dune, but Power is possible too.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Be Alive” from King Richard, “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, “Down to Joy” from Belfast, “Here I Am” from Respect, “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
How I Did: 3/5
Comments: The Encanto and Respect cuts make it instead of “Every Letter” from Cyrano and “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. Like the Oscars, this could be a battle between Beyonce (“Be Alive”) and Billie Eilish (“No Time to Die”).
That means the following films garnered these numbers with their nominations:
7 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Dune, Encanto
2 Nominations
CODA, Cyrano, The Lost Daughter, Parallel Mothers, Tick Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
Annette, Compartment No. 6, Cruella, Drive My Car, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The French Dispatch, The Hand of God, A Hero, House of Gucci, In the Heights, Luca, My Sunny Maad, No Time to Die, Passing, Raya and the Last Dragon, Respect, Spencer, Swan Song, The Tender Bar, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Let’s begin with this blanket statement… I’m basically flying a bit blind with my predictions for the Golden Globe Awards, which will be revealed tomorrow morning. For those who don’t follow the awards derbies closely like I do, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been in some considerable hot water for the last couple of years. So much so that NBC has decided they won’t air the January 9th ceremony due to lack of diversity for its voting membership. There were genuine questions as to whether the HFPA would even hold an event for their 79th awards, but they are pushing forward amidst the controversy.
Then there’s the simply the matter of the Globes being quite unpredictable. We tend to see a shocker nomination at least once a year… remember Kate Hudson’s nod in Actress (Musical/Comedy) for the barely seen and critically reviled Sia directed Music in 2020? Then the voters went ahead and nominated the picture itself!
Last year in Supporting Actress, Jodie Foster scored a surprise nomination and win for The Mauritanian. The Academy didn’t even bother to nominate her. In Supporting Actor, both Jared Leto (The Little Things) and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) made the cut in Supporting Actor though not at the Oscars. This is why my general rule at the Globes is to fill in bigger names when I’ve got a spot or two left over in an acting race.
The HFPA’s method of dividing Drama and Musical/Comedy always creates category questions and that holds true in 2021. Where’s CODA? Or House of Gucci and C’Mon C’Mon? Or Being the Ricardos. We don’t know. For prediction purposes, I’m putting them in Drama. Obviously, if they’re not, that would alter my estimates and make some of my calls moot.
Let’s take go through the categories one by one and see how this guesswork turns out, shall we? I’ll do a runner-up and second alternate for each race as well.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
King Richard
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: CODA
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary – At this point, Belfast, Dune, King Richard, and Power of the Dog seem like pretty safe bets. Any one of them missing out would be considered a significant snub. The fifth slot is wide open in my view. The surging CODA (if it’s placed in Drama) could certainly make the cut. Tragedy is a strong possibility and I wouldn’t count out Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon and House of Gucci (if they’re in Drama), The Last Duel, or Spencer. Despite some critical reservations, I’ll go with Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley. It’s important to remember that foreign films are relegated to their own category at the Globes. That’s why Parasite didn’t show up here two years ago and it’s why A Hero or Drive My Car won’t contend in this competition.
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tick Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Runner-Up: In the Heights
Second Alternate: Cruella
Commentary – The Musical/Comedy derby actually has a bunch of musicals to choose from in 2021 and West Side Story and Tick Tick… Boom! especially seem like surefire additions. Between In the Heights and Cyrano, I’m giving the latter a slight edge (though both could make it). Licorice Pizza should get in though I’m a tad more unsure about Don’t Look Up. I would generally say the top six listed here will be duking it out for five slots (Cruella is kind of a throwaway addition but if Music could get in…)
**Note that pics like CODA, Gucci, or Being the Ricardos could be campaigned for here and not Drama and that could change the dynamic.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Commentary – Feeling good about Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve. The 5 spot is tougher but I’ll give del Toro the nod over Anderson (who, somehow, has never been nominated for a Globe).
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Second Alternate: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Commentary – So here’s when it gets truly complicated as Gaga, Hudson, and Kidman could all theoretically wind up in Musical/Comedy. If not, both Gaga and Kidman seem like likely nominees in Drama. So do Chastain and Stewart. I’m picking Hudson over considerable competition that includes Colman, Comer, Emilia Jones in CODA (if placed here), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), and Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers).
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Commentary – Cumberbatch, Smith, and Washington are obvious choices. The other two slots – not so much. Phoenix could be in Musical/Comedy, but I’ll give the benefit of the doubt and put him here. Same with runner-up Bardem. As much as I’d like to anoint Cage for Pig, I’ll hedge with Cooper in Alley. Super dark horse choice: Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey.
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)
Predicted Nominees:
Haley Bennett, Cyrano
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Melissa Barrera, In the Heights
Second Alternate: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Once again – there’s some women I have in Drama that might shift over this way (Gaga, Hudson, Kidman, Jones). That would make this category more interesting as, right now, this is Zegler’s to lose based on my current composition. If serious hopefuls like Gaga and Kidman stay in Drama, this race could be ripe for an out of nowhere pick (I’m thinking either Annie Mumolo or Kristin Wiig in Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar).
Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)
Predicted Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
Ryan Reynolds, Free Guy
Runner-Up: Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Simon Rex, Red Rocket
Commentary – The first four seem probable and the safer choice for #5 would be Hoffman (that’s if Joaquin Phoenix or Javier Bardem don’t play here). I gotta pick at least one head scratcher though so let’s throw in Reynolds for the hit Free Guy!
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Supporting Actress)
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Runner-Up: Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Commentary – Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, and Ellis are likely. If any of that quartet miss, it could be Dunst. I’m utilizing my aforementioned big name theory by picking Streep in the five spot. Could be Moreno or Blanchett and the star power could overshadow other possibilities like Ruth Negga (Passing) or Ann Dowd (Mass).
Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Supporting Actor)
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Mike Faist, West Side Story
Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Commentary – No one can really make heads or tails of Supporting Actor in 2021 so there’s some winging it happening. I’ll say both Belfast boys get in while HFPA recognizes Cooper’s limited screen time in Pizza and Leto’s out there performance in Gucci. Smit-McPhee has been picking up critics awards and that could get him in. Truth be told… anything could happen in this one.
Best Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: Being the Ricardos
The one I’m uncertain about is Don’t Look Up with its many lackluster reviews, but I’ll go for it over Richard. I also wouldn’t completely dismiss Ricardos due to the Aaron Sorkin factor.
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Vivo
Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon
Second Alternate: Belle
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
A Hero
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: The Hand of God
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: The French Dispatch
Second Alternate: Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Every Letter” from Cyrano
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Second Alternate: “So May We Start” from Annette
My picks equate to the following scorecard in terms of total nominations:
7 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
West Side Story
4 Nominations
Cyrano, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Dune
2 Nominations
Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Drive My Car, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Free Guy, A Hero, In the Heights, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Respect, Titane, Vivo, The Worst Person in the World
I’ll have a post up later tomorrow with my results! Critics Choice predictions are next…
I half jokingly said I would be happy if I got half of my Golden Globe predictions correct due to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s unpredictable nature. And that’s exactly what happened as this blogger went 7/14.
The show provided some genuine whoppers when it came to upsets and the three biggest ones undoubtedly happened in the three actress races.
First things first. It was a good night for Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland, which took Best Picture (Drama) and Director. I predicted Zhao’s victory, but had The Trial of the Chicago 7 taking Picture. As for Aaron Sorkin’s Netflix drama, it won only in Screenplay (which I projected). This could give Nomadland the edge now at the Oscars and it turbo charges the narrative that Zhao is going to sweep the director categories with upcoming shows.
In the lead actor races, I went 2 for 2 with Chadwick Boseman in Drama for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Sacha Baron Cohen in Musical/Comedy for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, which also took Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) as was expected.
However, Maria Bakalova’s victory for Actress in Borat didn’t happen as Rosamund Pike scored a surprising win for I Care A Lot. That doesn’t bode well for Bakalova’s Supporting Actress nod from the Academy.
Speaking of Supporting Actress… whoa! Jodie Foster took the trophy for The Mauritanian and I challenge you to find anyone who saw that occurring. Foster won over my pick of Amanda Seyfried in Mank. I have yet to have Foster in my top five for the Oscars and perhaps that will change when I update my estimates tomorrow.
Yet the biggest Actress shocker was in Drama with Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (I said Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman). This is another race where nobody foresaw this development.
I thought Baron Cohen might be a double winner, but he lost Supporting Actor to Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. This is not unexpected as I had Kaluuya as my runner-up and his chances at Oscar gold are looking pretty solid.
The only slight upset in my projections was Another Round taking Foreign Language Film over Minari. It didn’t as Minari was victorious. As expected, Soul took Animated Film and Score and was the only picture to win two Globes other than Nomadland and Borat.
My runner-up “lo Si” from The Life Ahead was Best Song over “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami. So, as previously mentioned, I got precisely half of my selections right. Oof.
So what’s this all mean? The Golden Globes created some real head scratchers in the Actress fields and I would say there’s no certainly no Academy frontrunner at the moment for Actress and Supporting Actress. Nomadland did what it needed to do. Trial had a disappointing evening while solidifying its status as the Original Screenplay heavy favorite. Kaluuya is now the odds on pick in Supporting Actor and so is Boseman for Actor. As for Twitter… look for Jason Sudeikis’s hoodie to get the most attention.
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