Watching the recipients of the 81st Golden Globe Awards try to make their way to the stage through a tricky seating chart generated humorous moments of suspense this evening. As far as the winner themselves, there were less surprises. The show, however, wasn’t completely devoid of unexpected victors in the cinematic races. I’ll also add that Will Ferrell and Kristen Wiig’s musical related bit before they presented was easily the comedic highlight in a rather dull show (with some weak hosting from Jo Koy).
I went 12 for 15 in my picks as it turned out not to be the Barbenheimer show. The latter portion of that fresh word in the lexicon was correct as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer was the most celebrated picture with five Globes: Best Film (Drama), Director (Nolan), Actor in a Drama (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), and Original Score. I correctly picked all of those (as I did all the acting derbies I might add). There’s certainly no reason to think anything has changed with my longtime feeling that Oppenheimer is #1 in the Oscar BP rankings where it has been perched for months.
Four other movies posted two wins. Anatomy of a Fall was responsible for one of my misses as it won Best Screenplay over my Barbie call. That was genuinely unanticipated while its victory for Non-English Language Film was not. This is a nice show for the French mystery as it’s considered a question mark for the Academy’s BP race (tonight helps).
Poor Things took Best Film (Musical/Comedy) in another race where I selected Barbie. As anticipated, Emma Stone was the Musical/Comedy actress winner.
The Holdovers was recognized in Musical/Comedy for Actor (Paul Giamatti) and Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph). For the latter, this could be the start of several podium trips.
Barbie also took a pair of prizes. Yet it didn’t emerge in its highest profile categories. Instead it took Best Song and the newly (and oddly) coined Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. In short, it was not an overly successful evening for Greta Gerwig’s phenomenon.
Lily Gladstone is your Best Actress (Drama) for Killers of the Flower Moon and you can expect future awards shows will be a showdown between her and Emma Stone.
Finally, my other miss was The Boy and the Heron being named Animated Feature over the favored Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I still think Spidey is out front for the Oscar, but it could be a real competition.
All in all: a great evening for “enheimer” and Ferrell/Wiig dance moves. Not as much for “Barb”.
In addition to moving to CBS, the 81st Golden Globe Awards also moves to six nominees in their cinematic races this Sunday. Jo Koy hosts the 81st annual telecast with what could be the Barbenheimer broadcast.
There’s a new category via Cinematic and Box Office Achievement with its eight contenders (the rest have the aforementioned six as opposed to a previous quintet).
Readers of the blog know that I spend a whole lot of space speculating on the Oscars. Not so much with the Globes, but I’ll make some quick observations before making my picks along with a runner-up selection.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s divide of Drama and Musical & Comedy indeed allows Oppenheimer and Barbie to both emerge as victors. The latter seems highly likely to take Musical/Comedy while Oppenheimer faces stiff competition from Killers of the Flower Moon.
In the acting categories, we could find out if certain performers begin a run of domination. This includes Bradley Cooper (Maestro) or Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) for Actor, Lily Gladstone (Killers) or Emma Stone (Poor Things) in Actress, Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) for Supporting Actor, and Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) or Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) in Supporting Actress.
Of course, we can always count on surprises from the Globes. Let’s get to the predictions and I’ll have a recap up after the show!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Motion Picture(Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Best Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)
PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Barbie
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Past Lives
Best Non-English Language Motion Picture
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: Past Lives
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Best Original Score
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
That means that I am picking a Barbenheimer heavy program with these movies winning these numbers of Globes:
5 Wins
Oppenheimer
4 Wins
Barbie
2 Wins
The Holdovers
1 Win
Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards (airing January 7th) were unveiled this morning. As always, there were some surprises and it was a particularly weak day for one hopeful. That said, a lot of what transpired went according to plan. I went 74 for 92 on my picks (I’ll take it!).
Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my initial take on who or what may emerge victorious.
Best Motion Picture Drama
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Nailed the Drama category as this probably will come down to Oppenheimer vs. Killers.
Best Motion Picture Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Air, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, May December, Poor Things
How I Did: 5/6
In what might be the most surprising omission of the morning, The Color Purple didn’t make the cut. I (along with everyone else) had it in. I didn’t have Air though it was my alternate. Barbie is the frontrunner though Poor Things is viable.
Best Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Celine Song (Past Lives)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Just as in Motion Picture Drama, Nolan vs. Scorsese might be the showdown with Gerwig as a potential spoiler.
Best Actress Drama
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
I wouldn’t discount Hüller or Mulligan as slight upset picks, but Gladstone looks to be the favorite.
Best Actor Drama
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Like the Oscar race, this could end up as a contest between Cooper vs. Murphy.
Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings), Natalie Portman (May December), Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 4/6
Pöysti is an out of nowhere selection while Lawrence was my alternate. They get in over Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings). This is either Stone (probably) or Robbie (maybe).
Best Actor Musical/Comedy
Nominee: Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario), Timothee Chalamet (Wonka), Matt Damon (Air), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Joaquin Phoenix (Beau Is Afraid), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 5/6
Phoenix in over Gael Garcia Bernal for Cassandro. Wright has a shot, but this is Giamatti’s category to lose in my view.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 5/6
I would’ve picked Brooks as the likely winner until Purple‘s poor performance today. Now I think this acting race, perhaps more than any other, is wide open. I had Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) in instead of Pike.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/6
Had Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) and not Dafoe. Downey Jr. is the probable selection though I wouldn’t discount Gosling or Melton.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/6
I did not have Anatomy or Past Lives. Their inclusion is by no means shocking, but I am genuinely surprised The Holdovers did not make the list (neither did American Fiction). This is another race where the voters could go several directions with Barbie perhaps having an ever so slight edge.
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Oppenheimer, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
How I Did: 7/8
This new category can correctly be called the “Barbenheimer” award or the “Let’s Get Taylor Swift To The Ceremony Trophy”. I didn’t have Reckoning and instead had Elemental. Hard to imagine this not going to Barbie.
Best Non-English Motion Picture
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Fallen Leaves, Io Capitano, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/6
Here’s where I screwed up. Didn’t have Leaves, Capitano, or Past Lives (which is considered non-English for some reason here). Instead I had Perfect Days, The Taste of Things, and The Teachers’ Lounge. This should come down to Anatomy vs. Zone and I’m currently expecting the former to emerge.
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume, Wish
How I Did: 4/6
Suzume and Wish get in over Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Nimona. Some others were blindsided that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem didn’t make it. Boy vs. Spidey is the showdown.
Best Original Score
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 5/6
Zone makes the derby instead of Nyad. This should be Oppenheimer.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me, “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 3/6
Well, I got half and those were the Barbie tracks. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple, and “A World of Your Own” from Wonka were my picks instead of “Addicted to Romance” (which could mean Bruce Springsteen shows up), “Peaches”, and “Road to Freedom”. I’d say “What Was I Made For?” or “I’m Just Ken” win.
And there you have it. I’ll have final predictions for the Globes up shortly before airtime. Keep an eye on the blog for all things Oscar!
Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.
As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.
Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.
Motion Picture (Drama)
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Saltburn
Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
May December
Poor Things
Alternate: Air
Film Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Actress (Film Drama)
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Cailee Spaney, Priscilla
Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
Actor (Film Drama)
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw
Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings
Natalie Portman, May December
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings
Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro
Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario
Timothee Chalamet, Wonka
Matt Damon, Air
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Best Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: May December
Cinematic and Box Office Achievment
Barbie
Elemental
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Alternate: The Little Mermaid
Motion Picture (Non-English Language)
Anatomy of a Fall
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Promised Land
Motion Picture (Animated)
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Alternate: Wish
Original Score
The Boy and the Heron
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Elemental
Original Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“A World of Your Own” from Wonka
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
Barbie
8 Nominations
Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
6 Nominations
Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
4 Nominations
Maestro, May December
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings
Eddie Murphy, winner of tonight’s Cecil B. DeMille lifetime achievement, might have had the best timed Will Smith Oscar slap joke I’ve heard thus far (better than that of host Jerrod Carmichael). Mr. Murphy being funny was not a surprise. And there weren’t a whole lotta surprises for the cinematic victors at the 80th Golden Globes Awards… with a couple of exceptions.
I went 10/14 on my picks, but two of those misses happened to be the biggest prizes of all. After being snubbed for the shortlist of 16 filmmakers for BAFTA’s directing award, Steven Spielberg and his autobiographical The Fabelmans had an impressive and perhaps needed showing this evening. He won Best Director (which I did predict) and he capped the night by taking Best Motion Picture – Drama. I didn’t predict that as I went with Elvis instead.
The picture with tonight’s best showing was The Banshees of Inisherin at three podium trips. As expected, Colin Farrell was named Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy and Martin McDonagh took Best Screenplay. Banshees also emerged in Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy over my favored Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The news wasn’t all bad for Everything as Michelle Yeoh was Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy and Ke Huy Quan is your Best Supporting Actor. The Banshees victory could spawn some prognosticators switching their vote to it winning the BP Oscar. I’m thinking Everything is still very viable and The Fabelmans did what it needed to make this a three-picture race. Had Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick been your Drama pick, it might’ve surged the buzz for them. It wasn’t to be.
Other than the Motion Picture competitions, my other two misses were for Score and Non-English Language Film. In the former, Babylon was selected over my predicted Women Talking. For the latter, it produced the night’s only shocker as Argentina, 1985 was named instead of RRR (what I went with) and All Quiet on the Western Front (what plenty of others went with).
As for the remaining races I got right – Cate Blanchett is Best Actress (Drama) for Tár while Angela Bassett is Supporting Actress for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Austin Butler got the sole Elvis victory as Best Actor (Drama). Guillermo del Toro saw his version of Pinocchio be crowned Animated Feature. Finally, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR is Best Original Song over tunes from heavy hitters like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Lady Gaga.
Bottom line: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Fabelmans have been my top 3 possibilities for Best Picture for many weeks. Nothing that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did tonight changed that dynamic.
We’ve got a busy few days coming up with SAG and DGA nominations tomorrow and Critics Choice Awards airing Sunday. I’ll have my updated Oscar predictions up on Monday!
After controversies kept the 79th ceremony off of the air in 2021, the 80th Golden Golden Awards is set to air on NBC Tuesday night with Jerrod Carmichael hosting. When it comes down to winners for their contribution to film, we can safely bet on one. Eddie Murphy will receive the Cecil B. DeMille Award for his four decades of work onscreen. We can probably safely bet on more than just Eddie (Colin Farrell comes to mind).
Most categories are tougher to project. There are a number of races where I don’t feel confident with my arrived at winner. Quite frankly, if I go 7/14 this year, I’ll be content.
For each category, I’ll give you my pick and my runner-up. Unlike the Oscars, you won’t get detailed analysis though I will say here’s some of the categories that are tough:
Best Motion Picture (Drama) is a four-way race between everything not named Tár while Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) is a genuine two-way competition between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The Fabelmans might be fading with the Academy and that could hinder Spielberg’s chance at Director. The legendary filmmaker was very notably snubbed from the sixteen shortlist possibilities at BAFTA. However, that happened after voting had closed with HFPA. I still give him the slight edge with the Globes, but watch out for the Daniels or Baz Luhrmann.
In the lead acting races, three are easy to pick. Actor in a Drama is not as I think it’s a coin flip between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. My selection comes down to what I chose for Best Picture.
I don’t think Carey Mulligan takes Supporting Actress for She Said. The other four are all viable. While Kerry Condon might be the soft favorite for Oscar, I could see the HFPA going with a more famous performer with a celebrated body of work. Whether that’s Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis is an excellent question.
RRR could take Non-English Language Film and Song though the runners-up are both strong spoilers. Women Talking, The Fabelmans, and Babylon are all totally feasible for Score.
All right – enough talk! Time to (yikes) choose…
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Babylon
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s say Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
Predicted Winner: RRR
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Fabelmans
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers in terms of wins:
3 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Wins
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, RRR
1 Win
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking
This year’s crop of Supporting Actress hopefuls is a vast one and easily the toughest to predict of the four acting races. Earlier in the week, the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards named their nominees. For Supporting Actress, only three performers managed nods in both: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin, and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Additional contenders for the Globe are Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Carey Mulligan (She Said). For Critics Choice – it is Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Of the 8 actresses vying for victory, there are two surprising women not being talked about. Hong Chau (The Whale) and Claire Foy (Women Talking) were snubbed by the Globes and Critics Choice. I have had Foy listed at #1 in my Oscar picks for many weeks and I’ve had Chau in and out of my high five. Their double omissions put them at a disadvantage. There are only six Supporting Actress Oscar nominees in the past decade who missed both the Globes and Critics Choice: Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Laura Dern (Wild), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), and Marina de Tavira (Roma). It is worthy of note the other two were from just last year – Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) and Judi Dench (Belfast). None of them won the Oscar so you can bet Foy will at least drop from #1 when I update my predictions this weekend.
On the flip side, there are also 6 women who did land Globe and Critics mentions and were ignored by the Academy. They are Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year, Helen Mirren from Trumbo, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, and Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.
The two I’m holding back on are quite interesting…
Hong Chau in 2017’s Downsizing and Claire Foy in 2018’s First Man. They were both expected to pick up nods from the Oscar voters and didn’t. In 2022, they find themselves in the opposite situation. After being left off the ballots for two major precursors, they could miss a nomination and no one would be taken aback. Yet as the Academy showed with Foy’s Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley last year and Dame Judi, this branch could go their own way and include either (especially after noticeably ignoring them a few years back).
I’d rather be Bassett, Condon, and Curtis right now when it comes to viability. For Chau and Foy – the odds aren’t in their favor like they were five and four years back. Those odds didn’t help them then. Perhaps their longer ones will prove to their benefit this time around.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after a controversial couple of years which resulted in no aired telecast for the last ceremony, is moving forward with Jerrod Carmichael hosting the show on NBC in a month. The nominations for the 14 cinematic races were unveiled this morning.
I went 54 for 70 on my picks – an improvement over my previous 2021 performance of 49/70. The big winner: Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Its 8 nods led all pictures and landed mentions everywhere it was expected to.
On the flip side, it was a disappointing day for Women Talking. Sarah Polley’s expected Oscar contender managed two nods (Screenplay and Score) and missed out on several races where it was thought to be viable.
Let’s take the competitions one by one with my thoughts, shall we?
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Per above, the surprise here is Women Talking not making the cut. I had it in instead of Avatar (which is proving itself to be a highly likely hopeful for Oscar’s BP derby). While The Fabelmans could be considered a soft frontrunner, I would say everything but Tár has a shot to win.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 4/5
I went with The Menu over Triangle but the latter’s inclusion was not unexpected. This is almost certainly a battle between Banshees and Everything.
Best Director
Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Like in Best Drama, I went with Women Talking and its maker Sarah Polley instead of James Cameron. Also like that race, Spielberg might be favored but the others could upset the legend.
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Danielle Deadwyler (Till) failing to make the quintet is unexpected as is de Armas’s nod in the Marilyn Monroe biopic (which garnered plenty of poor reviews). You’re going to want to bet on Blanchett in this one.
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
How I Did: 3/5
Jackman and Pope in over my selections of Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Mr. Cruise whiffing is noticeable. Perhaps the HFPA is still salty about him giving back his Globes during the height of their controversies. Elvis is the only picture in this group that received more than 1 nomination and Butler could certainly emerge victorious. So could Fraser.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywher All at Once)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This went as anticipated and should continue that way with Yeoh taking the trophy in January.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) instead of Driver. It doesn’t matter much who the other four gentlemen are. This is Farrell’s to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
How I Did: 2/5 (ouch)
Supporting Actress has been a head scratcher all year as I’ve done Oscar projections. That proved true today with my poor performance. I went with Hong Chau (The Whale), Claire Foy (Women Talking), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) instead of Bassett, de Leon, and Mulligan. I’d say any of these contestants could win in this wide open field.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
How I Did: 3/5
I had Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Tom Hanks (yet again for Elvis), but Koeghan and Redmayne made it. Quan is probably out front but I wouldn’t rule Gleeson out.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Finally we get something for Women Talking. Yet this race (like Musical/Comedy) is probably either Banshees or Everything.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-Oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Inu-Oh is the surprise (I said The Bad Guys instead). Pinocchio is favored but I wouldn’t discount Marcel (which is picking up critics prizes).
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: All Quiet on theWestern Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
How I Did: 4/5
This could be a fascinating one. I don’t see Argentina or Close winning (which I left out for Bardo). The other 3 could.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
How I Did: 4/5
This is where I should’ve left Avatar out as Banshees got in instead. This could be a close one and I’m not ready to pick a leader.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
How I Did: 4/5
Pop superstar Billie Eilish and “Nobody Like U” was left off for pop superstar Taylor Swift and “Carolina”. Don’t be shocked if this comes down to pop superstars Lady Gaga for “Hold My Hand” and Rihanna for “Lift Me Up”.
That means the following features nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
5 Nominations
Babylon, The Fabelmans
3 Nominations
Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Menu, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Close, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Good Nurse, The Inspection, Inu-Oh, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, She Said, The Son, Turning Red, The Whale, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
After a couple years of major controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s big shindig is back on your television screens with the 80th Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony honoring the year’s best in film and TV returns to NBC on January 10th and the nominations are out on Monday, December 12th.
Readers of my blog are aware that I update my Oscar predictions every week to two weeks. With the Globes, it’s just one shot. As an aside, I don’t forecast the small screen races.
There are 14 categories to consider. As you may recall, the Globes split Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture and the lead acting derbies. This is not the case with director or supporting. Furthermore, this ceremony has a sole Screenplay race while the Academy differentiates between original and adapted works.
Let’s get to it! For each competition, I’m also giving you my alternate. On Monday, I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts on the nominations and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Menu
Alternate: Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actress – Drama
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor – Drama
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate: Hugh Jackman, The Son
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
Alternate: Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Women Talking
Alternate: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Animated Motion Picture
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate: My Father’s Dragon
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Decision to Leave
RRR
Alternate: Saint Omer
Best Original Score
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Song
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Alternate: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
And that means I’m projecting the following number of mentions for these pictures:
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
5 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Elvis
3 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Menu, Tár
2 Nominations
RRR, Turning Red, The Whale
1 Nomination
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, A Man Called Otto, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Till, The Woman King
This evening’s Golden Globes ceremony was certainly like no other in recent history. Due to controversies that have fallen upon the Hollywood Foreign Press Association in the past couple of years, the show was not broadcast, not streaming, and no celebrities attended. Reveals of the winners were available via Twitter.
The Globes could still provide a window for what might occur when Oscar nods are out next month. If so, there could be good things coming to the big winners of the evening – West Side Story and The Power of the Dog. They are likely the two that stand the greatest chance to take Best Picture (along with Belfast) and each had key wins tonight. And while Belfast only landed one victory, it was a rather key one.
So how’d I do with my predictions? 9 for 14. That’s about how I thought I’d perform to be honest as the HFPA is a little unpredictable.
Let’s start with what I got right:
West Side Story won Best Musical/Comedy and Ariana DeBose took Supporting Actress.
Kodi-Smit McPhee is Best Supporting Actor for The Power of the Dog. For DeBose and McPhee, it could be the start of healthy runs throughout the season.
Encanto is Best Animated Feature and Drive My Car took Foreign Film. I have both in my #1 positions for the Oscars.
Dune received Best Score and “No Time to Die” won Original Song. At the Academy Awards, I expect Billie vs. Beyonce (for “Be Alive” from King Richard). In round 1, Billie is victorious.
Will Smith’s turn as King Richard is your Best Actor (Drama) while Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick… Boom! is Best Actor (Musical/Comedy). Both were widely expected and the two are anticipated to easily make the cut at the Oscars.
Where I went wrong:
My one true upset pick was Emma Stone in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) for Cruella. I went with the upset because I couldn’t choose between Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) or Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). Zegler took the prize.
I did have Pizza being delivered a Screenplay win, but that went to Belfast. I thought that early award might forecast its win for Best Drama (I picked it) but…
The Power of the Dog won and that’s a pretty significant boost for its Oscar chances. Its maker Jane Campion also was named Best Director and I went with Steven Spielberg for West Side Story.Â
And perhaps the only true surprise of the evening was Best Actress (Drama) though I did make a point to say that any could win. I predicted Kristen Stewart in Spencer, but Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos was awarded. This points to a real competition at the other shows to come.
Quick take – Dog and Story had solid nights. Smith, DeBose, and Smit-McPhee may have solidified their frontrunner statuses. And Best Actress might be wide open.
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