Welcome to my first edition of my weekly Oscar predictions where I’ll be ranking my top 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 contenders in the directing, acting, and screenplay categories!
The dawn of my rankings coincides with the start of film festival season as Venice is in full swing with Telluride and Toronto on deck. Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story has already screened in Italy and solidified its status as a serious contender in numerous races. There’s a whole bunch of movies premiering in the coming days so expect the picture to become a wee bit clearer. That said, I’ve learned a lot of things from years of past predicting when it comes to this time of the year:
- Movies thought to be contenders will fail to live up to their buzz
- Movies will be pushed back to 2020 and render them ineligible
- Leading actor and actress candidates will be moved to supporting and vice versa
- Screenplays considered Adapted will become Original and vice versa
- Sleepers not currently on the radar will rise up… think last year’s Best Picture winner Green Book
With all those caveats, let’s get to it! And expect updates every Thursday on the blog…
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. 1917
5. Little Women
6. The Farewell
7. Parasite
8. The Laundromat
9. The Report
Other Possibilities:
10. Jojo Rabbit
11. Ford v Ferrari
12. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
13. Bombshell
14. Harriet
15. Joker
16. Pain and Glory
17. Dark Waters
18. Booksmart
19. A Hidden Life
20. Just Mercy
21. The Lighthouse
22. Rocketman
23. Ad Astra
24. Avengers: Endgame
25. The Goldfinch
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Sam Mendes, 1917
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
5. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women
7. Steven Soderbergh, The Laundromat
8. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
9. Lulu Wang, The Farewell
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
12. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
13. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
14. Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
15. Kasi Lemmons, Harriet
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
4. Robert DeNiro, The Irishman
5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
9. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
10. Adam Driver, The Report
11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
12. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
14. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
2. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
4. Awkwafina, The Farewell
5. Renee Zellweger, Judy
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Bombshell
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
11. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
12. Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky
13. Felicity Jones, Aeronauts
14. Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
15. Kristen Stewart, Seberg
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
3. Gary Oldman, The Laundromat
4. Al Pacino, The Irishman
5. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell
10. Jamie Bell, Rocketman
11. Ray Liotta, Marriage Story
12. Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
13. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
14. Leslie Odom, Jr., Harriet
15. Timothee Chalamet, Little Women
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Annette Bening, The Report
2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story
3. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell
4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Other Possibilities:
6. Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
10. Janelle Monae, Harriet
11. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
12. Anna Paquin, The Irishman
13. Jennifer Hudson, Cats
14. Catherine Deneuve, The Truth
15. Nicole Kidman, The Goldfinch
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. The Laundromat
3. Little Women
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Dark Waters
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7. Joker
8. Toy Story 4
9. Just Mercy
10. Ford v Ferrari
11. The Goldfinch
12. The Good Liar
13. Judy
14. Motherless Brooklyn
15. Avengers: Endgame
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. The Farewell
4. The Report
5. Parasite
Other Possibilities:
6. Booksmart
7. Pain and Glory
8. 1917
9. Bombshell
10. Dolemite Is My Name
11. Harriet
12. The Lighthouse
13. Ad Astra
14. Us
15. Queen and Slim
And that does it for my inaugural ranked predictions! Keep an eye on the blog daily for ongoing developments…