Angel Studios is distributing Andy Serkis’s animated rendering of George Orwell’s novella Animal Farm, out May 1st. With a screenplay from Nicholas Stoller, the third cinematic adaptation of the source material boasts an impressive voice cast including Seth Rogen, Gaten Matarazzo, Kieran Culkin, Glenn Close, Laverne Cox, Steve Buscemi, Woody Harrelson, Jim Parsons, Kathleen Turner, Iman Vellani, and Mr. Serkis himself.
Reviews are not precious. The middling reaction is evidenced by the 36% Rotten Tomatoes score and 42 Metacritic. Those results make it clear that you shouldn’t bet that Farm will be a factor in the animated awards races months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ahead of its weekend release where it’s expected to dominate the charts, the review embargo for musical biopic Michael is up. Critics are saying it’s not thrilling with many calling it… well, bad (I’ll stop with the puns now). From director Antoine Fuqua, the look at Michael Jackson’s life from the mid 60s to late 80s stars the singer’s nephew Jaafar in the title role. Costars include Nia Long, Laura Harrier, Juliano Krue Valdi, and Colman Domingo as the King of Pop’s domineering father Joseph.
The film would love to replicate the box office success of 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody of which it shares producers. That Freddie Mercury biopic nabbed five Oscar nods including Best Picture and a victory in Best Actor for Rami Malek. Based on today’s reaction, I wouldn’t bank on it.
Michael‘s Rotten Tomatoes score is only 30% with 38 on Metacritic. Those numbers will not get you in the Best Picture discussion – full stop. Jafaar Jackson and Colman Domingo are being singled out despite the primarily mediocre buzz. When I did my first ranked predictions post on Sunday, I had Domingo in my Supporting Actor five (listed fourth). That projection would give the performer his third nom in four years after leading mentions for Rustin (2023) and Sing Sing (2024). I don’t think he’s completely out of the race, but I suspect he’ll be dropped from my quintet in my next update a few days from now.
If Michael manages any nominations at the 99th ceremony, it could be in Makeup and Hairstyling or especially Sound. As far as contention in the major races, its chances fell precipitously with the embargo lapse. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.
In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.
As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.
My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.
We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.
And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.
So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.
When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.
You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Fjord
6. No One Cares
7. All of a Sudden
8. Fatherland
9. The Social Reckoning
10. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew
12. A Place in Hell
13. A Long Winter
14. The Entertainment System is Down
15. Being Heumann
16. Cry to Heaven
17. Josephine
18. Werwulf
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20. Michael
21. Paper Tiger
22. Saturn Return
23. Sense and Sensibility
24. Jack of Spades
25. Behemoth!
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
5.Cristian Mingiu, Fjord
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down
12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf
15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares
4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
8. Mason Reeves, Josephine
9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
11. Sandra Hüller, Rose
12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return
15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares
4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Digger
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning
12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
13. Gemma Chan, Josephine
14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey
9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter
11. Jesse Plemons, Digger
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine
13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa
14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down
English writer/director Kirk Jones’s biopic I Swear already made waves (some of them unexpected) at the 79th BAFTAs in February. It hopes to do the same at the 99th Academy Awards a little less than a year from now. The true life story of John Davidson (who has severe Tourette’s) stars Robert Aramayo as the film’s central figure. Maxine Peake, Shirley Henderson, and Peter Mullan costar.
With a U.K. release in October of last year. Swear scored BAFTA nods for Outstanding British Film, Supporting Actor (Mullan), Original Screenplay, and Casting. The fifth nom was the surprising victory for Aramayo in lead actor over Oscar and SAG Actor winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Critics Choice and Golden Globe recipient Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme).
The stateside release for Swear is April 24th. With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic, inclusion in Original Screenplay months down the line (and maybe Casting) isn’t out of the question. Yet Swear‘s best shot at inclusion is for Aramayo. Obviously we don’t yet know how strong that derby will be (it seems there’s plenty of major contenders). I wouldn’t discount the BAFTA winner as a possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy is unwrapped this weekend in theaters with Warner Bros. looking to turn out horror fans for the franchise reboot. From Evil Dead Rise director Cronin, the cast includes Jack Reynor, Laia Costa, May Calamawy, Natalie Grace, and Verónica Falcón.
This is the third take on the series in just over a quarter century. We had the three Brendan Fraser flicks that began in 1999 and the poorly received reimagining with Tom Cruise in 2017. Reviews for this gorier interpretation of the material are so-so reviews with 54% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 46 Metacritic.
Only the first Fraser adventure got the Academy’s attention with a Best Sound nod. There’s one race where Cronin’s pic has a fair shot and that’s Makeup and Hairstyling. That branch of voters showed genre love last year to winner Frankenstein as well as Sinners and (mostly surprisingly) The Ugly Stepsister. If WB mounts a campaign, it’s at least a possibility to make the shortlist and perhaps make the eventual quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
David Lowery’s latest is the psychological drama Mother Mary with Anne Hathaway portraying a pop singer and Michaela Cole as a fashion designer. Hunter Schafer and FKA Twigs are in the supporting cast though most write-ups are describing this as a two-hander. Out this weekend in limited release, the A24 title expands wide April 24th. The writer/director can sometimes be a critical darling with varied projects including Ain’t Them Bodies Saints, A Ghost Story, Pete’s Dragon, and The Green Knight.
Early reviews are as diverse as Lowery’s filmography. The 76% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 60 Metacritic hint at that spectrum. Some critics are claiming it’s among the auteur’s finest works while others are calling it a dud. Hathaway and Cole’s acting is being praised, but awards possibilities are likely limited to their character’s professions: music and costume design. Jack Antonoff and Charli XCX supplied original songs sung by Hathaway. Perhaps lead single “Burial” could be in contention as well as the threads worn throughout. Above the line attention is a long shot at best. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Outcome marks the second directorial feature from Jonah Hill. The dark comedy has premiered on Apple TV this weekend. Keanu Reeves headlines as an actor in hot water with Hill, Cameron Diaz, Matt Bomer, Cary Christopher, David Spade, Laverne Cox, Roy Wood Jr., Susan Lucci, and Martin Scorsese in the eclectic supporting cast.
Critical reaction indicates a sophomore slump for Hill. His behind the camera debut Mid90s (2018) received mostly positive notices. Rotten Tomatoes is 25% with a 37 on Metacritic. The fact that its review embargo didn’t lift until late this week now makes plenty of sense. We can be certain that awards chatter won’t be part of Outcome. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.
This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
After premiering last fall at the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, the latest cinematic version of Hamlet hits stateside venues this weekend. Aneil Karia helms a contemporary retelling of William Shakespeare’s tragedy with Riz Ahmed in the title role. Costars include Morfydd Clark, Joe Alwyn, Sheeba Chaddra, Art Malik, and Timothy Spall.
Critical reaction is varied with a 73% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. A 2020 Best Actor nominee for Sound of Metal, Ahmed is getting some solid ink. However, the high likelihood is that awards chatter for this Hamnet is not to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.
This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 