Tag: Anatomy of a Fall

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Oscar Predictions: Rose

    The Berlin Film Festival is underway. Last year, it was where critics and audiences first saw Rose Byrne’s Oscar nominated performance for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. There could be another Best Actress contender for the next ceremony via Rose.

    Sandra Hüller plays the title role of a 17th century woman masquerading as a man for financial purposes. Marcus Schleinzer directs with a supporting cast including Caro Braun, Marisa Growaldt, Godehard Giese, and Robert Gwisdek. The Austrian/German production is slated for European release this spring while stateside distribution is unsettled (though probably not for long).

    Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with much praise going to its star. Hüller was a 2023 nominee for Anatomy of a Fall and she could rise again here. It is also feasible that Austria or Germany might select this as their horse for International Feature Film. If this receives a well-managed campaign, Rose could bloom during the next season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

    As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

    What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

    For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

    Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

    American Fiction

    Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.

    Barbie

    Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.

    The Holdovers

    Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.

    Maestro

    Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.

    Past Lives

    Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.

    Poor Things

    The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.

    The Zone of Interest

    The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.

    And that means my final 2023 five would be:

    American Fiction

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    The Zone of Interest

    I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 25th Edition

    It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.

    This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.

    There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.

    Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.

    Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

    2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

    16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)

    17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)

    18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

    19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)

    20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)

    21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)

    22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

    23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)

    24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)

    25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Highest 2 Lowest

    Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026

    Is This Thing On?

    Alpha

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)

    15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

    Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)

    11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)

    Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

    Andrew Scott, Pressure

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

    Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Greta Lee, Late Fame

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)

    7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Jack O’Connell, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Colman Domingo, Michael

    Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (moved to lead actor)

    Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

    Brendan Fraser, Pressure

    Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

    Neon Lights Up Cannes

    No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.

    Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.

    As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.

    The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).

    Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.

    Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.

    Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.

    Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…

    Oscar Predictions: Sentimental Value

    Distributor Neon has shined brightly at the Cannes Film Festival by releasing the previous five Palme d’Or recipients: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. Only Titane missed a Best Picture nod from the Academy. Parasite and Anora won. That’s one of the reasons Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is considered to be a serious contender for the top prize in France. Another is because it’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2021 effort The Worst Person in the World which reunites him with star Renate Reinsve. The supporting cast includes Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Elle Fanning, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Cory Michael Smith.

    Early festival reaction is effusive and points to Value indeed being a major Palme threat. Neon could guide this to numerous Oscar nods including Picture, Director, Reinsve in Actress, Skasrgård in Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay. Then there’s Supporting Actress and according to reviews, Neon may have a decision to make as Lilleass and Fanning are both being praised. The latter would be a higher profile campaign, but let’s see how it plays out.

    Bottom line: there is no doubt that Sentimental has quickly established itself a potential force at Cannes and beyond. Expect to hear a lot about it this awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    77th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

    This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.

    I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.

    Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.

    That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.

    So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.

    And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.

    DGA Predicted Nominees

    Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

    Sean Baker, Anora

    Edward Berger, Conclave

    Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    Runner-Up: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

    These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

    The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

    Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jon M. Chu, Wicked

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joan Chen, Dídi

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29 –

    4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

    8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

    10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

    8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Anora

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

    Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    8 Nominations

    Conclave

    7 Nominations

    Wicked

    5 Nominations

    Anora, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys

    2 Nominations

    The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

    When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

    For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

    That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

    It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

    That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

    I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

    This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

    You can all view all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Life of Chuck

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

    Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Life of Chuck

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    All We Imagine as Light

    Pedro Páramo

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Skywalkers: A Love Story

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Conclave

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Nickel Boys

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    The Room Next Door

    The Life of Chuck

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    “We’re Back” from Moana 2

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Civil War

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

    And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    10 Nominations

    Blitz

    9 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

    6 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    A Real Pain, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Oscar Predictions: Laapataa Ladies

    The nation of India has seen only one of their features (2001’s Lagaan) nominated for Best International Feature Film in the 21st century. Prior to that, you have to go back to 1988 and Salaam Bombay! Some prognosticators (including this one) thought they had a great shot at inclusion this year via All We Imagine as Light. Payal Kapadia’s acclaimed drama has a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, 93 on Metacritic, and took the Grand Prix (essentially first runner-up) at the Cannes Film Festival behind Anora. There was some suspicion, however, that India might not go with it as their pick due to controversial subject matter.

    That was proven correct today as the selection body went with Laapataa Ladies. From Kiran Rao, the dramedy originally was seen at the 2023 Toronto Film Festival. It came out in April on Netflix. The cast includes Nitanshi Goel, Pratibha Ranta, Sparsh Shrivastava, Chhaya Kadam, and Ravi Kishan.

    Like Light, the Ladies Tomato meter is also perfect. While certainly positive, the reviews are not near as effusive. Last year, France was seen as dropping the ball by choosing The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy of a Fall. If India’s pick ends up making the shortlist, I’ll be singing a different tune. This does potentially appear to be their unforced error for the 97th Academy Awards. It is reminiscent of the 95th ceremony when India inexplicably decided against RRR and it probably would have made the nominated quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…