Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, psychological thriller Verity looks to top the box office this weekend over Tom Cruise’s Digger. All signs are indicating that it will. Michael Showalter directs with Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson, and Josh Hartnett headlining.
While it may double the opening performance of Cruise and company (that’s what I’m projecting), reviews for both features are not great. Verity is at 47% on Rotten Tomatoes with 44 on Metacritic (Digger currently has the exact same MC score).
This is Hathaway’s fifth theatrical release of 2026. The Odyssey gives her a great opportunity for a second Supporting Actress try and possible win 14 years after her podium trip for Les Miserables. The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mother Mary are both possibilities for Costume Design while The End of Oak Street hopes to get in for Visual Effects. Verity is the only Hathaway flick that appears to have no chance at awards consideration. To be fair, Amazon MGM didn’t make it for that and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For the first time in nearly a decade, Tom Cruise headlines a picture that isn’t an action sequel via Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s satire Digger. Cruise and company will need to fend off a challenge from Verity, a psychological thriller based on Colleen Hoover’s novel starring the inescapable Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Truth be told, I think Ms. Hathaway easily holds the advantage. Verity should be able to bring in a decent (especially female) crowd familiar with the source material. Mid teens could be the floor though I have this in the mid 20s for a first place showing.
I would’ve pegged Digger for a similar start a couple of weeks back. However, reviews are subpar and this is not your typical Cruise content that audiences have grown accustomed to recently. My projection has steadily declined and my barely double digits forecast could put it anywhere from second place to fifth. That would be a disastrous kickoff for the satire with a $125 million budget.
Holdovers Avengers Endgame: Encore, Resident Evil, and Heart of the Beast may all be in the same range. I have #s 2-5 separated by a mere $2 million and here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Verity
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
2. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Digger
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. Avengers Endgame: Encore
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (September 25-27)
Not long after Spider-Man relinquished the top spot, the MCU returned to #1 with the re-release (with some extra footage) of 2019’s Avengers: EndgameEncore. Meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, the epic comic book experience accomplished its mission and added $26.1 million to its coffers. That’s beyond my $22.6 million take as its domestic total ballooned to $884 million.
Resident Evil, after a terrific debut, slid to second with an understandable 62% dip to $23 million. I was on target with a $24 million prediction as the franchise reboot passed the century mark after ten days with $103 million.
Three newcomers filled with the rest of the top five with Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast in third. With a German Shepherd as his costar, the survival drama earned $20 million, surpassing my $16.8 million call. That gross would be more notable if not for its $80M+ budget, but it’s still at the high end of its anticipated range.
Primetime starring Robert Pattinson rode a wave of favorable buzz to $19.1 million in fourth compared to my $14.5 million prediction. Lots of audience members chose to have a seat for the A24 title which has a lowly $15 million price tag.
The news was not as positive for DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island. Despite fresh critical reaction, the family friendly tale was fifth with $13 million (I went higher at $17.2 million). It’ll hope for families to catch up in subsequent weekends though it’s undoubtedly a flat result.
The onslaught of 2026 Anne Hathaway movies continues with Verity, based on the novel by It Ends with Us author Colleen Hoover. Out October 2nd, Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett costar in the psychological thriller directed by Michael Showalter.
Originally slated for May, this becomes Hathaway’s fifth pic of the year behind Mother Mary, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Odyssey, and The End of Oak Street. As far as opening weekends, it could land right in the middle and certainly behind Prada and Odyssey. It might also fall a tad behind Oak‘s $21 million premiere.
Hoover’s built-in audience should mean a decent female turnout. While I don’t see this approaching the $50 million that It Ends with Us scored out of the gate, a start in the mid 20s seems doable. That could put it in a close race for #1 with Tom Cruise’s Digger (Hathaway will team up with Cruise for summer 2028’s Days of Thunder 2).
Michael Angelo Covino cowrites, directs, and costars in the rom com Splitsville, out this weekend in limited form and widely on September 5th from distributor Neon. It premiered at Cannes back in May. Dakota Johnson headlines along with her filmmaker, Adria Arjona, Kyle Marvin, Nicholas Braun, David Castaneda, O-T Fagbenie, and Charlie Gillespie.
Johnson’s second genre exercise this season (Materialists being the other), Splitsville is drawing mostly positive critical reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is 86% with Metacritic at 75. I do think Golden Globe attention in Best Musical/Comedy is at least a possibility, but the Academy is unlikely to consider it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zombie threequel 28 Years Later from Danny Boyle and Disney/Pixar’s sci-fi adventure Elio debut this weekend and look to challenge How to Train Your Dragon from a second weekend atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
28 Years could over perform and challenge Dragon for box office bragging rights. $40M+ isn’t out of the question, but I’m projecting low to mid 30s.
The Dragon competition could be detrimental to Elio. Pixar has had luck with recent sequels like Inside Out 2. However, original content such as Elemental has struggled out of the gate. I’m estimating Elio premieres in the mid 20s and that would probably mean third place.
If Dragon declines around 50%, low 40s is where it would land and that would mean hitting #1 again after its fiery debut (more on that below).
Lilo & Stitch should be fourth while fifth could be a photo finish between the sophomore frame of Materialists and fifth frame of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million
2. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Elio
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
4. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Predictions (June 13-15)
Friday the 13th certainly wasn’t unlucky for the live-action version of 2010’s How to Train Your Dragon. With mostly solid reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, the fourth flick in the series easily set a franchise high with $84.6 million. That’s right on track with my $84.3 million prediction and it is the fourth largest domestic kickoff of 2025. A sequel was already in the works.
Lilo & Stitch slipped to second after three weeks in 1st with $15.7 million, on pace with my $15.6 million call. The four-week tally is $366 million.
Celine Song’s Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans slightly exceeded expectations with $12 million in third. That’s right in the neighborhood of my $11.4 million estimate as the rom com hopes to play well throughout the coming weeks. The B- Cinemascore could be cause for concern.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was fourth with $10.5 million (I went lower at $9 million) for $166 million in four weeks.
At $9.7 million, John Wick spinoff Ballerina sputtered in weekend #2 with a 60% plummet for fifth. I was slightly more generous at $10.5 million.
A live-action remake of an animated hit looks to replace another live-action remake of an animated hit for box office supremacy this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon debuts. We also have the rom com Materialists entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers at these links:
Dragon, which updates DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 original, is expected to have a fiery start. At best, it could approach $100 million. I’m playing it a little safe and projecting mid 80s for what would easily be a franchise best kickoff after three previous animated offerings.
Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans could reach $10M+ and I’ve got it just over that for third place. It could debut anywhere between 3-5 as it’ll hope to leg out well in subsequent weekends based on solid reviews.
As for holdovers, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will relinquish its crown after three weeks atop the charts. The Dragon competition could mean a 50% range drop.
Ballerina didn’t impress in its opening (more on that below) and I’m guesstimating a mid to high 50s slide in its sophomore frame. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning should remain in the high five.
Here’s how I envision it playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $84.3 million
2. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
4. Ballerina
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $9 million
Box Office Results (June 6-8)
Lilo & Stitch once again held bragging rights as the family tale held in first with $32.3 million, in line with my $31.9 million call. The Mouse House hit has amassed $335 million after three weeks.
That means my prediction that John Wick spinoff Ballerina would be #1 was off base. The action extravaganza with Ana de Armas stalled in second with $24.5 million, well under my $36.8 million take. It’s a rare financial misstep for a series that had yet to experience such a thing.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was third with $14.8 million, nearly matching my $15 million forecast as Tom Cruise’s eighth appearance as Ethan Hunt has made $149 million after its third outing.
Karate Kid: Legends was fourth with $8.5 million. My guess? $8.5 million! The 58% decline in its second weekend means the sequel has kicked up an unimpressive $35 million.
Final Destination Bloodlines rounded out the top five with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The four-week tally is $123 million.
That’s because I had Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme performing better. The auteur’s latest was sixth at $6.2 million. I went higher for the national expansion with $8.7 million. Counting its coastal release the previous weekend, Scheme stands at $7 million.
Celine Song’s 2023 debut Past Lives was a Best Picture and Original Screenplay nominee and her sophomore feature Materialists arrives in theaters this weekend. A rom com with considerable emotional heft according to reviews, it stars Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans.
The word-of-mouth for the A24 release indicates there’s no sophomore slump for Song with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. If the Academy considers Materialists their material, Original Screenplay is a possibility. Chris Evans is also getting some of the best notices of his career.
Yet I suspect its distributor could focus more on its fall slate, namely Marty Supreme. If A24 slots this into the Musical/Comedy competitions at the Golden Globes, it could contend in that Best Picture race with Johnson as a Best Actress hopeful. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A24 rom com Materialists is writer/director Celine Song’s follow-up to 2023 Best Picture nominee Past Lives. Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and Pedro Pascal headline the summer counter programming offering that looks to bring in a respectable female crowd.
While official reviews aren’t yet released, early word-of-mouth from screenings indicates this could be a winner. Audience familiarity with its trilogy of leads could assist. Tracking currently has this at high single digits. I think this could slightly outdo that range and reach low double digits.
Materialists opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my How to Train Your Dragon prediction, click here:
Christy Hall’s Daddio isn’t out in theaters until June 28th, but festival goers in Telluride and Toronto checked out the two-hander last fall. Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn make up the cast with the latter playing an NYC cabbie and the former as his fare. It marks the debut for the director who also scripted.
Picked up by Sony Pictures Classics, plenty of critics are hailing both performances as well as Hall’s screenplay. The RT score is 83%. I’m just not convinced this will stick with voters come nomination time. Penn, a two-time winner for Mystic River and Milk, and Johnson (yet to be in contention) could get campaigns. I wouldn’t count on them taking a ride to the 97th ceremony (though Johnson has a better shot with this over Madame Web). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:
With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.
I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).
The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.
While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.
Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.
Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:
1. Bob Marley: One Love
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
3. Ordinary Angels
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. Madame Web
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $3 million
6. Migration
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
7. Drive-Away Dolls
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (February 16-19)
The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.
Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.
Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.
The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.
Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.
