Tag: The Apprentice

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

    Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It begins with Supporting Actor.

    I published my first preview of the Supporting Actor field on April 5th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

    Colman Domingo, Michael

    Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

    Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

    Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

    Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

    Let’s dispense with some of those names. Domingo’s work as the Jackson family patriarch in Michael won’t be seen until 2026 after the studio delayed it.

    The Life of Chuck, despite winning the coveted audience prize at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival, never picked up steam as a contender when it opened this summer. Hamill would desperately need a Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nom to have any shot at the big dance. I don’t see it happening.

    Then there’s Garfield. In April, I envisioned Luca Guadagnino’s Hunt as a surefire player in several races. Yet it’s become a critical and commercial disappointment and I suspect it could be completely blanked come nomination morning.

    As for the 10 other possibilities, those names:

    Joe Alwyn, Hamnet

    Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

    Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

    Brendan Fraser, Pressure

    Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

    LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love

    Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

    Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

    Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

    Brendan Fraser’s work as Dwight Eisenhower in the war drama Pressure is looking like a 2026 release. When it comes to Alwyn in Hamnet, I was assuming that Paul Mescal’s performance in that pic was going to be a lead actor submission. It has just recently been confirmed that Mescal will go supporting and it is he and not Alwyn who’s viable.

    Denzel Washington is definitely a lead contender for Lowest and we’ll address his chances in that post. As for Cooper, Stanfield, Tyler, the Creator, and Wright – that quartet of performances did not garner awards buzz upon their unveilings.

    So let’s talk about who is viable, shall we? In my estimation, there are three hopefuls whose nominations seem assured or darn close to it.

    One Battle After Another will receive a BP nod and it has a real chance of winning. Two-time winner in lead Actor Sean Penn should be up for his villainous turn, marking his seventh overall at bat and first in the supporting field. It’s actually been 17 years since his last nom when he took gold for Milk.

    Stellan Skarsgård is the name in my original top five that I’m still confident remains. Sentimental Value, while possibly losing a little luster in recent weeks, should make the BP cut and his work is arguably the most heralded.

    The third performer I’m convinced of is Paul Mescal. Like Battle and Value, Hamnet is looking solid in BP. His costar Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner in Actress and he should come along for the ride.

    Then it gets complicated. Adam Sandler has been in my #4 spot for a few weeks. The SNL alum has not seen his name called by the Academy despite chatter for Punch-Drunk Love and especially Uncut Gems. This offers a legit opportunity for voters to honor him. However, Sandler’s fortunes could be tied to whether Jay Kelly makes BP and that’s very much in question. As for now, I have him in but it’s far from assured.

    Jeremy Strong was up last year in this category for The Apprentice. He could make it two years in a row as The Boss’s longtime manager Jon Landau in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. I’m less convinced the biopic makes BP than any of the other pictures above. He’s still a strong (no pun intended) possibility to join his costar Jeremy Allen White on the red carpet.

    So, at the moment, my five would consist of Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, Sandler and Strong (in that order). Who could change that dynamic?

    Benicio del Toro could. 25 years years after he emerged victorious in Supporting Actor for Traffic, his comic relief as the helpful sensei in One Battle After Another is quite memorable. If the movie is indeed the BP force it might be, the coattails could leave room for him. The Academy has had a habit of nominating two performances from the same film here. From 2017 to 2022, it happened at every ceremony but one:

    2017 – Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Rockwell won)

    2019 – Al Pacino and Joe Pesci from The Irishman

    2020 – Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield from Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya won)

    2021 – Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog

    2022 – Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin

    I came very close to putting him in over Strong in my update a week ago.

    In 2020, Delroy Lindo was expected to be up for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods but he was snubbed. Members could give him his first nom for Sinners, which is another likely BP nominee. I like his chances better than costars Miles Caton or Jack O’Connell though they’ve been mentioned too.

    Ethan Hawke’s lead work in Blue Moon is being predicted by more prognosticators recently and that includes me. He could bring costar Andrew Scott along with him.

    If Frankenstein makes BP, it increases the chances that Jacob Elordi’s portrayal of The Monster is alive in the minds of those filling out ballots.

    A couple of other possibilities to address. While Josh O’Connor grew raves at screenings for the upcoming Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, I’m not buying him being the franchise’s first acting nominee. Rental Family doesn’t appear to be a threat in BP and that hurts Akira Emoto’s inclusion. The mixed reaction to Anemone might leave Daniel Day-Lewis out of Best Actor. That makes the chances of Sean Bean making the quintet remote at best.

    The only unseen performance worth mentioning in my view is Jonathan Bailey in Wicked: For Good. He managed a SAG nod as Fiyero in part 1 last year. If part 2 is generally perceived as equal to what preceded it, the cast could be rewarded beyond Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.

    So there you have it, readers! I would say Penn, Skargård and Mescal are in with Sandler, Strong, del Toro, Lindo, Scott, Elorodi and Bailey battling for the remaining two slots. Let’s see if and how that changes as the weeks roll along. My in-depth look at Supporting Actress is up next!

    Oscar Predictions – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Awards prospects for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are no longer a complete unknown now that it has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 24th domestic bow. Chronicling the making of his 1982 album Nebraska during a tumultuous personal period, Jeremy Allen White headlines as the legendary Boss in the Scott Cooper directed effort. Jeremy Strong (as longtime manager Jon Landau), Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron, and David Krumholtz costar.

    As reviews trickle in from Colorado, some common themes have emerged. Critics are praising its focus on a particular time in Springsteen’s legendary career and avoiding musical biopic cliches. Word-of-mouth indicates this could fare well with Academy voters like last year’s Bob Dylan centered A Complete Unknown. That includes viability in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and down-the-line races like Casting, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Sound. Cooper probably is a long shot for his direction though it is worth noting that James Mangold was a bit of a surprise nominee for Unknown.

    As for the performances, White (a two-time Emmy winner for The Bear) seems poised for his first Oscar recognition. In the supporting derbies, it sounds like Strong is the better bet over Graham. Prognosticators have been wondering who would emerge between the two. If the Succession thespian makes the Supporting Actor quintet, it would be his second nom in a row after last year’s The Apprentice. While Odessa Young is being singled out in some write-ups, I doubt she materializes in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

    We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We arrive at Best Actor. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I correctly picked two of the eventual nominees with Colman Domingo in Sing Sing and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) was listed in Other Possibilities. At that early juncture, the eventual winner Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and his probable runner-up Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) weren’t on the radar.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. For example, one year ago, Chalamet’s work as Bob Dylan was not expected to come out in 2024.

    This premiere post projects a second nom in a row for Mr. Chalamet as well as return engagements for past winners George Clooney (a Supporting victory 20 years ago for Syriana) and Matthew McConaughey (lead for 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club). Unlike most prognosticators, I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actress up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

    George Clooney, Jay Kelly

    Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

    Paul Mescal, Hamnet

    Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Other Possibilities:

    Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

    Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

    Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

    Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

    Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

    Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

    Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

    Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

    Andrew Scott, Pressure

    98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

    We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

    It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Colman Domingo, Michael

    Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

    Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

    Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

    Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

    Other Possibilities:

    Joe Alwyn, Hamnet

    Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

    Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

    Brendan Fraser, Pressure

    Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

    LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love

    Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

    Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

    Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

    97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

    This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

    After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

    After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

    After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

    These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

    We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

    BEST PICTURE

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

    Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

    Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

    It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

    PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

    Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

    Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

    Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

    PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

    Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

    This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

    Runner-Up: A Real Pain

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

    Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

    PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

    Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

    PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

    Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

    PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

    Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

    The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

    PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

    Runner-Up: Porcelain War

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

    Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Nosferatu

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

    Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

    PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

    Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

    PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

    Runner-Up: Anora

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    All signs point to The Substance.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

    Runner-Up: Wicked

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

    Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

    PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

    Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

    If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

    PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST SOUND

    A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

    Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

    This should be Dune‘s other victory.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

    Runner-Up: Better Man

    And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

    4 Wins

    The Brutalist

    2 Wins

    Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

    1 Win

    Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain

    Oscars: The Case of Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.

    Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

    None

    The Case for Jeremy Strong:

    As Donald Trump’s attorney and fixer Roy Cohn, Strong flexed his acting muscle and it resulted in nominations at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards.

    The Cast Against Jeremy Strong:

    He missed the cut at Critics Choice. Most importantly, Strong’s Succession costar Kieran Culkin has swept the season with his performance in A Real Pain.

    The Verdict:

    There will be almost certainly be a Succession actor winning Supporting Actor on Sunday night. It almost certainly will not be Strong.

    My Case Of posts will conclude with the final hopeful in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown…

    Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora
    Oscars: The Case of Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
    Oscars: The Case of Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown
    Oscars: The Case of Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

    Oscars: The Case of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other Actor nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.

    Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

    None

    The Case for Sebastian Stan:

    As Donald Trump building out his real estate career, Stan embodied the future President with BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations in tow.

    The Case Against Sebastian Stan:

    Making the Oscar quintet was a question mark since he probably split votes with his other heralded 2024 work in A Different Man. For that role, he took home the Golden Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy) while losing the Actor in a Drama prize and the BAFTA to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Stan did not make the cut at Critics Choice or SAG.

    The Verdict:

    Brody and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) are out front and Stan is not considered a threat to either of them.

    My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Supporting Actress and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez…

    Oscars: The Case of Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
    Oscars: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
    Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
    Oscars: The Case of Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

    31st SAG Awards Winner Predictions

    The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.

    That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.

    At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.

    Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.

    PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

    Runner-Up: Anora

    Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

    This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.

    PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

    Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

    Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.

    PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

    Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.

    PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

    Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.

    PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

    Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked

    This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.

    PREDICTED WINNER: THE FALL GUY

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    78th BAFTA Winner Predictions

    The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.

    I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.

    That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.

    BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.

    Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!

    BEST FILM

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

    Predicted Winner: Conclave

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

    Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

    Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance

    Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

    Predicted Winner: Anora

    Runner-Up: The Brutalist

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

    Predicted Winner: Conclave

    Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

    BEST ANIMATED FILM

    Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    Runner-Up: Flow

    BEST DOCUMENTARY

    Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

    Predicted Winner: No Other Land

    Runner-Up: Daughters

    BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

    All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: I’m Still Here

    BEST CASTING

    Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

    Predicted Winner: Conclave

    Runner-Up: Anora

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

    Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

    Predicted Winner: Wicked

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST EDITING

    Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

    Predicted Winner: Conclave

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST MAKE UP & HAIR

    Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    Predicted Winner: The Substance

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

    Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

    Predicted Winner: Wicked

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    BEST SOUND

    Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

    Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two

    Runner-Up: Wicked

    BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

    Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

    Predicted Winner: Better Man

    Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

    Outstanding British Film

    Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    Predicted Winner: Conclave

    Runner-Up: Kneecap

    Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

    Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

    Predicted Winner: Kneecap

    Runner-Up: Santosh

    Best Children’s & Family Film

    Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot

    Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    EE Rising Star Award

    Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan

    Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison

    Runner-Up: Marisa Abela

    And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:

    5 Wins

    Conclave

    4 Wins

    The Brutalist

    2 Wins

    Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

    1 Win

    Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot