Tag: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Wicked

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Wang, Dídi

Alex Garland, Civil War

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Sing Sing

5. The End

6. Queer

7. The Fire Inside

8. Bird

9. Kinds of Kindness

10. Dídi

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux

12. The Apprentice

13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

15. Civil War

16. Maria

17. Megalopolis

18. The Piano Lesson

19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

20. A Real Pain

21. Here

22. The Nickel Boys

23. Hard Truths

24. Wicked

25. Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

12. Sean Wang, Dídi

13. Alex Garland, Civil War

14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

5. Tilda Swinton, The End

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

13. Zendaya, Challengers

14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

4. Daniel Craig, Queer

5. André Holland, The Actor

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

7. George MacKay, The End

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joan Chen, Dídi

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

4. Lesley Manville, Queer

5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

8. Drew Starkey, Queer

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

11. John Lithgow, Conclave

12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

My very first glimpse of the acting races, Director, and Picture for the 97th Academy Awards reaches Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

When I did my initial speculation for this competition in 2023 (just about a year ago), it yielded one eventual nominee and that was Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers in addition to fellow nominee Jodie Foster (Nyad). I did not identify Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) or America Ferrera (Barbie) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Performers listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress.

This premiere post highlights plenty of veteran thespians with previous noms. It is worth noting that none of them are previous victors. We also have some newcomers to the awards scene.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Joan Chen, Dídi

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Lesley Manville, Queer

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Other Possibilities:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Renate Reinsve, A Different Man

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Actor is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Exhibiting Forgiveness

Exhibiting Forgiveness marks the directorial debut of Titus Kaphar and it was unveiled at Sundance over the weekend. The family drama stars André Holland, John Earl Jelks, Andra Day, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.

Sporting a 100% RT rating, Forgiveness could be a real contender in some top tier races a year from now. With the right campaign, Picture and Original Screenplay are feasible. Holland could be a factor in lead Actor. With acclaimed turns in Moonlight and Passing, it could be time for major awards exposure (he also has a potentially baity part in The Actor in 2024). Jelks also is generating praise for his supporting work. This is one to keep an eye on throughout the long upcoming season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

96th Academy Awards FINAL Nominations Predictions

Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.

And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.

The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Color Purple

2nd Alternate: Saltburn

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives

2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

1st Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

2nd Alternate: Julianne Moore, May December

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

1st Alternate: Maestro

2nd Alternate: Air

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Origin

Best International Feature

Fallen Leaves

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

Tótem

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Taste of Things

2nd Alternate: The Teachers’ Lounge

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Suzume

1st Alternate: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2nd Alternate: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

20 Days in Mariupol

Beyond Utopia

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

1st Alternate: American Symphony

2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project

Best Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Barbie

2nd Alternate: El Conde

Best Costume Design

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Napoleon

2nd Alternate: Maestro

Best Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Barbie

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Society of the Snow

2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Best Original Score

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony

2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

Best Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Asteroid City

Best Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Best Visual Effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem

Is Origin An Oscar Sleeper?

Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.

Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.

That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.

Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.

Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.

I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…

Gotham Nominations: A Notebook Report

The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.

That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.

We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.

This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).

Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.

In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.

The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.

Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).

How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.

2023 Oscar Predictions: September 23rd Edition

To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.

In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).

Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.

Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.

For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.

As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.

Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.

With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.

A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.

Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay

2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

Napoleon

The Boy and the Heron

The Book of Clarence

The Iron Claw

A Thousand and One

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predited Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay

One Life

BlackBerry

Next Goal Wins

The Nickel Boys

Dumb Money

The Killer

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

The Boy and the Heron

La Chimera

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Suzume (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia

They Shot the Piano Player

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Every Body (PR: 4) (-5)

10. It Ain’t Over (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Life

The Deepest Breath

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

The Killer

The Color Purple

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Priscilla (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Golda (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Beau is Afraid

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

One Life

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)

8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)

10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Steal the Show” from Elemental

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Creator

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

The Little Mermaid

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple

6 Nominations

Maestro

4 Nominations

The Holdovers

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actress Race (September 14th)

My closer looks at six of the major Oscar categories turns to Best Actress. If you missed my posts covering the other three acting derbies, you can access them right here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)
Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have made a couple of things clearer, as they usually do. While reviews for her were solid, I think Kate Winslet in Lee is now a long shot for inclusion in the final five. On the other hand, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Origin is more of a possibility than I would’ve originally thought. I do, however, think the film will need to make its mark elsewhere and I’m a little skeptical at the moment.

In Venice, the Best Actress prize went to Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla and that certainly helps her stock. I’m not prepared to put her into the final quintet. The soft frontrunner is probably Emma Stone in the rapturously received Poor Things. It could put her in line to take this race seven years after her victory in La La Land. She skyrockets to fifth to first.

Other strong hopefuls are Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, Natalie Portman in May December, and Greta Lee for Past Lives. Annette Bening could find herself in the mix as Nyad. An “overdue for a win” narrative could give her statue, but I could also see her being left out completely.

Then there’s Margot Robbie who is, of course, headlining 2023’s largest hit with Barbie. Some might say there’s no way she gets left out. I would remind people about Tom Cruise’s non-nomination for Top Gun: Maverick. Yet she could absolutely end up making the cut.

I’ve included Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) in the quintet since I began predicting months ago. Her work is the only one mentioned here still unseen. She clings to the five spot for now.

As with the other acting races, I’m winnowing the field from 15 possibilities to 10 and here’s how I see it right now:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 2) (-3)

4. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Kate Winslet, Lee

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Regina King, Shirley

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Saoirse Ronan, Foe

Best Director is up next!

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)

My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).

One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).

We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.

At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin

Best Actor is up next!