Tag: Ruben Ostlund

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    77th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

    This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.

    I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.

    Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.

    That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.

    So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.

    And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.

    DGA Predicted Nominees

    Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

    Sean Baker, Anora

    Edward Berger, Conclave

    Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    Runner-Up: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

    2023 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

    The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.

    Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).

    I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.

    For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.

    The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.

    In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.

    Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.

    My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.

    Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Teo Yoo, Past Lives

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)

    5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

    7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

    5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

    4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)

    5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Teachers’ Lounge

    Io capitano

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Wish (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Suzume

    Robot Dreams

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Every Body (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. It Ain’t Over (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    American Symphony

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Asteroid City

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Maestro

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Beau is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Nyad (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Oppenheimer

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Killer (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Asteroid City

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “High Life” from Flora and Son

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Wonka

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    The Killer

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)

    That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:

    12 Nominations

    Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

    10 Nominations

    Poor Things

    9 Nominations

    Barbie

    6 Nominations

    The Color Purple, Maestro

    5 Nominations

    Past Lives

    4 Nominations

    The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

    3 Nominations

    Anatomy of a Fall

    2 Nominations

    Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

    1 Nomination

    About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

    Best Picture 2022: The Final Five

    We are caught up and have reached 2022 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

    What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

    For the ceremony that occurred less than three months ago, we know Everything Everywhere All at Once would land a spot. To say it was the big winner on Oscar night is an understatement. The multi-genre hit made off with 7 trophies – Picture, Director (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay (also the Daniels), and Film Editing. It was nominated for four more – Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu), Costume Design, Original Score, and Original Song.

    Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five was no easy feat, but here’s my best speculation!

    Well… almost. Before we get to that, this particular series will now become a yearly occurrence where I give you my final five in the coming years. However, stay tuned for the reverse of these write-ups. Starting soon and beginning with 2008 (the last year there were five nominees), I’ll give you speculation on which pictures I believe would be nominated if there were ten contending films.

    Back to the Oscars that just happened…

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Edward Berger’s World War I epic was one of the easiest picks on Oscar night to win the International Feature Film trophy. It also took home Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design and received noms for Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. The quartet of victories was second best to Everything.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes, despite surprising misses for its Director and in Film Editing. I still think the 9 nine total nods (also second best to Everything) puts it in the quintet.

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    As anticipated, James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to the 2009 box office behemoth was a victor in Visual Effects. It also got nods in Production Design and Sound.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. Water logged less than half of its predecessor’s nine mentions and Cameron himself didn’t make the directorial derby.

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Martin McDonagh’s black comedy clocked nine nominations with the others being for the director and screenwriter (both McDonagh), Actor (Colin Farrell), two Supporting Actor bids (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon), Film Editing, and Original Score. It ended up going 0 for 8.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes. The winning percentage of zero was due to the Everything love, but it still would’ve found a slot among the five.

    Elvis

    Baz Luhrmann’s lavish musical biopic of The King shimmied to 8 nods including Actor (Austin Butler), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound. Like Banshees, it left the building with no statues.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. Had Elvis garnered wins in some of the below-the-line races (which it was expected to) or for Butler, I may have a different answer in this case. Yet it wasn’t to be.

    The Fabelmans

    Steven Spielberg’s most personal work to date saw 7 nominations for the director and screenwriter (both Spielberg with Tony Kushner co-scribing), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Original Score, and Production Design. In what’s starting to sound like a broken record, it failed to capitalize on any of its nominations.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes though I struggled with this one. Missing editing (a good harbinger of a BP nod) was a surprise and same goes for the cinematography. Ultimately the power of Spielberg might’ve reserved this for the fourth or fifth spot.

    Tár

    Todd Field’s profile of a complicated EGOT winner generated six mentions for its director and screenwriter (both Field), Actress (Cate Blanchett), Cinematography, and Film Editing. Once again – any potential victory was thwarted by Everything as it went 0/6.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes. I must say that I really went back and forth on this (more so than with The Fabelmans). Yet it managed to score inclusions in the precursors that matter most and it gets the edge for it.

    Top Gun: Maverick

    The moneymaking monolith of 2022 had a total of six nominations with Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects on the menu. It emerged victorious in Sound (Everything and Western Front didn’t take them all).

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. I went back and forth between this and Tár for #5. The latter got in where it matters. Maverick, despite being the people’s champ, missed key races like Director (Joseph Kosinski), Actor (Tom Cruise), and Cinematography.

    Triangle of Sadness

    The Palme d’or recipient at Cannes was awarded an unexpected directing nod for Ruben Östlund and an expected screenwriting mention for him. The count for was 0 for 3.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. Östlund’s surprise nomination for his behind the camera was a pleasant surprise, but a final five slot would be an even bigger shocker.

    Women Talking

    Director Sarah Polley won for her Adapted Screenplay and that marks Women‘s only other nom. That means the sprawling cast that included Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, and Jessie Buckley were all left out.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. Despite the screenplay award, the aforementioned facts make this the easiest of the bunch to leave out (especially considering its two nods were the smallest of the group).

    And that means my 2022 final five is:

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Fabelmans

    Tár

    Stay tuned for the inverse of these posts beginning with 2008!

    If you missed my write-ups in the series covering 2009-21, you can access them right here:

    Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2017: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2018: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2019: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2020: The Final Five
    Best Picture 2021: The Final Five

    2023 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

    As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.

    One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.

    Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.

    Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.

    Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.

    For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.

    Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).

    Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.

    In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.

    OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)

    8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)

    16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)

    17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)

    18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)

    19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)

    20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)

    21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)

    22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)

    23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)

    24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)

    25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Strangers

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)

    15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Todd Haynes, May December

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Regina King, Shirley

    Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

    11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Andrew Scott, Strangers

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Claire Foy, Strangers

    Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)

    2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)

    4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilties:

    6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)

    11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jeremy Strong, Maestro

    FINAL Oscar Predictions: 95th Academy Awards

    After nearly a year of speculation on the blog and the new podcast (look up Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite pod platform, folks!), the time has come to make my final picks for the winners at the 95th Academy Awards. The ceremony comes our way Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel hosting and here’s hoping the presenters are given the correct envelopes and that no one gets slapped.

    For some context, here’s how I did in the previous four Oscars (note that there were 21 races through 2019 because the sound competitions were divided into Editing and Mixing until their combination).

    2018: 14/21

    2019: 18/21

    2020: 13/20

    2021: 17/20

    Note that I seem to do better in the odd numbered years. That could repeat for 2022 as three of the four acting derbies are highly tricky to pick and there are other down-the-line competitions that could go in different directions. As for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, and International Feature Film… not so much.

    Let’s go through them one by one and I’ll give you my winner and runner-up projection!

    Best Picture

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

    The tricky part isn’t picking the victor. It’s picking the runner-up. That’s because Everything has taken, well, nearly everything. PGA. DGA. WGA. SAG Ensemble. Critics Choice.

    OK, so All Quiet received the BAFTA and The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were your respective Drama and Musical/Comedy recipients at the Golden Globes. Yet the momentum has been with Everything for some time and it is the easy pick for the biggest prize of the night.

    Given that a screenplay and acting statue are legitimately in play, Banshees has the strongest argument for a package of trophies that could include BP. It’s a distant runner-up.

    Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Director

    Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

    I suppose the voters could go the Globe route and bestow their honor on the legendary Spielberg. Doubtful. Look for the Academy to match the DGA and Critics Choice selections of Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.

    Predicted Winner: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Runner-Up: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

    Best Actress

    Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Now it gets tough. Blanchett’s towering work could be undeniable as it was to BAFTA and Critics Choice (similar to how Anthony Hopkins from The Father managed a win over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom two years ago). The BP momentum and SAG could push Yeoh over the line. This is a coin flip and I’m siding with the momentum.

    Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Runner-Up: Cate Blanchett, Tár

    Best Actor

    Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

    A three-person race dwindled when Farrell lost the BAFTA. It went instead to Butler and he also won the Globe (over Fraser). SAG and Critics Choice went to Fraser. I have gone back and forth on this endlessly. If Fraser won, he would break a precedent of the victorious Actor’s movie being up for Best Picture. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) to find the last one whose film wasn’t in the BP lineup. I cannot stress enough that this is 50.5/49.5.

    Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

    Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

    Best Supporting Actress

    Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Unlike Actress and Actor, this is between three nominees. Curtis surprisingly nabbed SAG while Bassett took Critics Choice and the Globe. Both are actresses whose wins could double as career achievement honors. I have a suspicion that the Academy may instead look at BAFTA winner Condon as their best opportunity to throw Banshees a bone.

    Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Best Supporting Actor

    Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Keoghan is the #2 since he unexpectedly won BAFTA. That said, this is the simplest acting race to project as Quan has won everything everywhere else.

    Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

    If All Quiet over performs (and it might), it could emerge here. The smart money is on Sarah Polley and WGA honored script for Talking.

    Predicted Winner: Women Talking

    Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Best Original Screenplay

    The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

    Here’s another category where voters could single out Banshees. Still – I’m not going against the strong BP frontrunner.

    Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Animated Feature

    Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

    del Toro’s version of the classic tale has taken all precursors that matter. This is one of the uncomplicated calls.

    Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

    Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

    Best International Feature Film

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl

    This might even be more automatic than Animated Feature. As your lone BP contestant, All Quiet will make noise here.

    Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Runner-Up: Argentina, 1985

    Best Documentary Feature

    All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny

    Tough pick. Breathes and Beauty are viable. I’ve picked Fire of Love over Navalny twice in Critics Choice and PGA and missed both times. Not again.

    Predicted Winner: Navalny

    Runner-Up: Fire of Love

    Best Cinematography

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár

    When perceived favorite Top Gun: Maverick shockingly failed to make this quintet, the race opened up. Elvis could make history and have the first female winner in Mandy Walker. It’s tempting to pick her, but I’ll go with Quiet.

    Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Runner-Up: Elvis

    Best Costume Design

    Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

    On the other hand, here’s one where Elvis could take the gold. I wouldn’t count out Panther or even Everything if its sweep branches into upsets.

    Predicted Winner: Elvis

    Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Best Film Editing

    The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

    Maverick is in the mix, but Everything should extend its haul.

    Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale

    The Whale and Western are possible. I’m giving this one to The King, however.

    Predicted Winner: Elvis

    Runner-Up: The Whale

    Best Original Score

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

    This is one of the most open categories. I don’t see Banshees landing this. All 4 others are possible. Babylon or Western might be the smart pick, but this is the one true upset I’m selecting and projecting a Fabelmans/John Williams appreciation victory.

    Predicted Winner: The Fabelmans

    Runner-Up: Babylon

    Best Original Song

    “Tell It Like a Woman” from Applause, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

    I don’t believe this is cut and dry. The star power of Gaga and Rihanna or an Everything expansion everywhere could make it interesting. “Naatu Naatu” has dominated the precursors and I’m not going with two upsets in the musical competitions.

    Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

    Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Production Design

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

    This is where Babylon should be Oscar winner Babylon though Elvis lurks.

    Predicted Winner: Babylon

    Runner-Up: Elvis

    Best Sound

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

    And this is where Top Gun: Maverick should get its Oscar. Yet I’m going with a minor upset pick with Western. That means I’m projecting Maverick ends up 0 for 6.

    Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

    Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Visual Effects

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick

    No real Maverick shot in VE because Avatar is one of the automatic category picks.

    Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

    Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

    That equates to these movies achieving these numbers of wins:

    6 Wins

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    3 Wins

    All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis

    1 Win

    Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Navalny, RRR, Women Talking

    I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening or Monday on the blog and the podcast!

    2022 DGA Winner Prediction

    How reliable is the Director Guild of America (DGA) recipient as it pertains to the eventual Oscar winner for Best Director? In the 21st century, the match has been 19 of 22 times. In 2000, Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) took DGA and the Academy Award went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic. Ben Affleck was the DGA recipient in 2012 for Argo though he didn’t get an Oscar nod. Ang Lee, for Life of Pi, took the gold instead. Sam Mendes (1917) was DGA in 2019, but Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) was the Academy’s choice. All others years corresponded in the century corresponded.

    The DGA Award is revealed tomorrow night and here’s your nominees:

    Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Todd Field, Tár

    Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

    Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

    There’s a 4/5 correlation with the Oscar nominees (par for the course). Kosinski is not in the Academy’s quintet while Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) is. Therefore it’s safe to rule the Maverick maker out.

    Neither Field nor McDonagh have taken any major precursors. The Daniels and Spielberg have. For the Daniels, they were the Critics Choice victors. At the Golden Globes, it was Spielberg. To call this is a two-person (or three technically) race seems accurate. Anyone else winning would be a considerable upset.

    A little less than a month before the Oscar ceremony, I do believe Everything stands as your soft Oscar frontrunner. Spielberg saw a surprising omission at the BAFTAs where he didn’t even make their shortlist. Due to his legendary status, it would be foolish to discount him. However, I believe the momentum lies with Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert so…

    Predicted DGA Winner(s):

    The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    I’ll make my DGA commentary part of my recap post for the BAFTAs on Sunday evening. Stay tuned!

    Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness

    Ruben Östlund’s Triangle of Sadness is the penultimate Case Of post for the ten Best Picture nominees at this year’s Academy Awards.

    The Case for Triangle of Sadness:

    The Swedish filmmaker’s satire targeting the mega-rich began gathering buzz when it played at Cannes and received the Palme d’Or. That made it just the second feature in the 21st century to receive the top Cannes prize and nab a BP nod. The other is Parasite and it won BP three years ago. Östlund was a surprise nominee in Director which could indicate this is stronger than anticipated.

    The Case Against Triangle of Sadness:

    It hasn’t exactly cleaned up in the precursors. At Critics Choice, it had a sole mention for Best Comedy. There were two Globe noms for Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy and Dolly de Leon in Supporting Actress (the Academy left her off). The three BAFTA inclusions (de Leon, Original Screenplay, Casting) don’t include Picture. Furthermore, Triangle has yet to win any of these.

    Other Nominations:

    Director (Östlund), Original Screenplay

    The Verdict:

    Despite its maker unexpectedly making the directorial quintet, Triangle appears on course for an 0 for 3 performance on Oscar night.

    My Case Of posts will continue with Women Talking!

    Previous write-ups for the BP hopefuls can be accessed here:

    Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
    Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water
    Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
    Oscars: The Case of Elvis
    Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once
    Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans
    Oscars: The Case of Tár
    Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick
    Oscars: The Case of Women Talking

    95th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

    It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.

    There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.

    As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.

    Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?

    Best Picture

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

    How I Did: 8/10

    No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.

    As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).

    Best Director

    The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

    How I Did: 4/5

    The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.

    Best Actress

    The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    How I Did: 3/5

    In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.

    Best Actor

    The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).

    Best Supporting Actress

    The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    How I Did: 4/5

    Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.

    Best Supporting Actor

    The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    How I Did: 4/5

    Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.

    Best Original Screenplay

    The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

    How I Did: 3/5

    Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.

    Best Animated Feature

    The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

    How I Did: 4/5

    Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.

    Best International Feature Film

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl

    How I Did: 3/5

    Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.

    Best Documentary Feature

    The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny

    How I Did: 4/5

    Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.

    Best Cinematography

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár

    How I Did: 3/5

    Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.

    Best Costume Design

    The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

    How I Did: 4/5

    Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.

    Best Film Editing

    The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

    How I Did: 3/5

    In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale

    How I Did: 4/5

    Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.

    Best Original Score

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

    How I Did: 3/5

    Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.

    Best Original Song

    The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

    How I Did: 4/5

    Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.

    Best Production Design

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

    How I Did: 4/5

    A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.

    Best Sound

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

    How I Did: 4/5

    The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.

    Best Visual Effects

    The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick

    How I Did: 3/5

    Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.

    That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    9 Nominations

    All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin

    8 Nominations

    Elvis

    7 Nominations

    The Fabelmans

    6 Nominations

    Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

    5 Nominations

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    4 Nominations

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    3 Nominations

    Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

    2 Nominations

    Living, Women Talking

    1 Nomination

    Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red

    So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!