2019 Midyear Oscar Report

We are officially at the midpoint of this thing called 2019 and that means a midyear Oscar report is before you today on the blog. First things first: as awards watchers already know, the bulk of the eventual nominees will come your way in the second half of the year. It will likely be festivals such as Toronto and Venice that produce their initial screenings.

We have, however, already had Cannes and Sundance producing first looks at some contenders. The most high profile is Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which is out July 26 but debuted in the French Riviera. The celebrated auteur’s ninth feature immediately became a player in Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Leonardo DiCaprio (Actor), Brad Pitt (probably Supporting Actor), and Margot Robbie (Supporting Actress), as well as down the line tech races.

Cannes also served as the launching point for two contenders in the newly termed Best International Feature Film. They are Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite, which won the Palme d’Or. With Glory, expect lots of chatter for its star Antonio Banderas to receive his first nod in Actor.

As for other possibilities in the lead Actor derby, we have Taron Egerton’s portrayal of Elton John in Rocketman. If Rami Malek could take home the gold last year for Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s certainly feasible that Egerton will have his supporters. Cannes also debuted  the horror pic The Lighthouse with raves for Willem Dafoe. And though it’s a reach, there could be a push for Robert Downey Jr. to garner recognition for his decade plus embodiment of Tony Stark/Iron Man in Avengers: Endgame.

When it comes to Endgame, I would anticipate talk for a Picture nod, especially after Black Panther became the first comic book pic to get one last year. At this juncture, I’ll say it gets plenty of chatter and no nomination. Yet that paradigm could shift.

Sundance gave us the true life political drama The Report. That pic features both Adam Driver and Annette Bening in roles that drew acclaim. It’s out stateside in late September and is one to keep an eye on.

2019 has produced numerous female lead performances that could all be classified as dark horse contenders. The list includes Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Julianne Moore (Gloria Bell), Awkwafina (The Farewell), Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell), Elle Fanning (Teen Spirit), Florence Pugh (Midsommar), and Jessie Buckley (Wild Rose).

Despite its disappointing box office grosses, Olivia Wilde’s coming of age comedy Booksmart might be considered in Original Screenplay. Same goes for The Farewell ahead of its release in a couple weeks.

For Best Animated Feature, Toy Story 4 looks to be a slam dunk for a nomination and that also holds true for How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. Already released titles such as Missing Link and The Secret Life of Pets 2 are likely on the outside looking in.

As for documentaries, keep an eye on Apollo 11, The Biggest Little Farm, and Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese. I would say Apollo is a strong contender for inclusion.

And that’s your report, ladies and gentlemen! Get ready for a whole bunch of Oscar speculation in the second half of the year…

Oscar Watch: Gloria Bell

After premiering last autumn at the Toronto Film Festival, Gloria Bell hits theaters in limited fashion on Friday. The film is a remake of Sebastian Lelio’s 2013 Chilean comedic drama that was met with acclaim. Those strong reviews have greeted the American version (100% on Rotten Tomatoes), which again features Lelio behind the camera. It’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2017’s A Fantastic Woman, which won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Feature.

Julianne Moore plays the title role and critics have lavished praise for her work. Costars include John Turturro, Michael Cera, Brad Garrett, Holland Taylor, Sean Astin, Jeanne Tripplehorn, and Rita Wilson.

A24 acquired Gloria after its screening up north. Even with the March release, it’s likely that the studio will make a significant push for Moore to receive her sixth Oscar nod. Her fifth nomination was the lucky one in 2014 when took the statue in Best Actress for Still Alice. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the sole focus is on Moore being recognized, similar to Glenn Close in 2018 for The Wife.

Bottom line: it’s early, but Moore could be in the mix yet again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Best Actress: A Look Back

Back at it again with my look back at major Oscar races from 1990 to the present! We’ve arrived at Best Actress. If you missed my previous posts covering the Supporting performers, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/25/best-supporting-actor-a-look-back/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/20/best-supporting-actress-a-look-back/

As I did with those posts, I’m selecting my top 3 least surprising winners and top 3 upsets. I’m also giving you my personal pick for strongest and weakest fields from the past 28 years.

For starters, here’s the list of winners from 1990 to now:

1990 – Kathy Bates, Misery

1991 – Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs

1992 – Emma Thompson, Howards End

1993 – Holly Hunter, The Piano

1994 – Jessica Lange, Blue Sky

1995 – Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking

1996 – Frances McDormand, Fargo

1997 – Helen Hunt, As Good As It Gets

1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love

1999 – Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry

2000 – Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich

2001 – Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball

2002 – Nicole Kidman, The Hours

2003 – Charlize Theron, Monster

2004 – Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

2005 – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

2006 – Helen Mirren, The Queen

2007 – Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

2008 – Kate Winslet, The Reader

2009 – Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

2010 – Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2011 – Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

2012 – Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

2013 – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

2014 – Julianne Moore, Still Alice

2015 – Brie Larson, Room

2016 – Emma Stone, La La Land

2017 – Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

When it comes to Best Actress, I must say it’s probably the race with the least amount of genuine upsets. Nearly every year, there’s a pretty strong front-runner and they win – even more so than in Actor and the Supporting players. Of many non-surprises, here’s my top ones:

3. Holly Hunter, The Piano

Hunter’s work as a mute piano player in Jane Campion’s period piece was the clear favorite over significant competition that included Angela Bassett in What’s Love Got to Do With It? and the previous year’s winner Emma Thompson in The Remains of the Day. 

2. Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich

One of Hollywood’s biggest stars had already received nods for Steel Magnolias and Pretty Woman and there was little question that Brockovich would earn Roberts her first and only (so far) trip to the Oscar stage.

1. Charlize Theron, Monster

Theron’s metamorphosis into serial killer Aileen Wuornos swept all precursors. The rest of the field was also fairly weak that year, making her the obvious victor.

And now the “upsets”…

3. Kate Winslet, The Reader

While not a surprise when she won Oscar night, the multi-nominated Winslet was expected for much of the year to get a nod for Revolutionary Road instead. Yet it was this Stephen Daldry drama that was selected instead.

2. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

This was a two-way contest between Cotillard and veteran Julie Christie for Away from Her, with many believing the latter had the edge. It didn’t turn out that way.

1. Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry and Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

This #1 comes with a caveat. It wasn’t much of an upset by the time Swank won her double Oscars. What’s interesting here is that she single-handedly denied two prime opportunities for the winless Annette Bening to get a statue for American Beauty and Being Julia. 

We move to the fields. For weakest field, I’m selecting 1994 when Jessica Lange won for the little-seen Blue Sky. Other nominees were Jodie Foster in Nell, Miranda Richardson in Tom&Viv, Winona Ryder for Little Women, and Susan Sarandon in The Client. 

Strongest group in my opinion goes to 2010 with Natalie Portman’s victorious role in Black Swan. The rest of that impressive field is Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence’s first nomination in Winter’s Bone, and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).

Best Actor is next, folks! Stay tuned…

Gotham Awards Reaction 2018

It’s only mid-October, but the first significant precursor of awards season rolled out nominations today in the form of the Gotham Awards. If you’re not familiar, the Gothams honor independent film in a limited number of categories.

While not as prolific as the Golden Globes or SAG nominations, there has been a correlation with movies and performers nominated here getting Oscar attention. Let’s take a look at the past five Gotham awards nominees and how they matched up with the Academy:

In 2013, 12 Years a Slave was nominated for Best Feature and went on to win the Oscar. In the Best Actor race, eventual Academy winner Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) was victorious here and Chiwetel Ejiofor (Slave) also was nominated for both. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) was nominated here and went on to win the gold statue. It’s worth noting that the Gothams do not have supporting acting categories (we’ll get to that in a minute).

In 2014, three movies that got Best Picture nods were honored here: Birdman (Oscar winner), Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. In the acting races, Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Oscar/Gotham winner Julianne Moore (Still Alice) were included.

For 2015, no Best Actor nominees for the Gothams correlated to Oscars. However, there were actress match-ups with Oscar winner Brie Larson (Room) and Cate Blanchett (Carol). Also – the Gotham and Oscar Best Picture winners were the same – Spotlight.

That happened once again in 2016 as Moonlight won the Oscar and the Gotham. Manchester by the Sea was also nominated for both. Casey Affleck’s work in that film won Best Actor at both ceremonies. For Actress, Natalie Portman as Jackie got double nods.

Last year, two Gotham Film nominees got Best Picture recognition: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. In Actor, it was Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out as a double recipient. In Actress, same goes for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya). And coming back to the fact that there’s no supporting races, Willem Dafoe received an Actor nomination at the Gothams for The Florida Project while being recognized for Supporting Actor at the Oscars.

So, as you can see, there’s usually some overlap for the two ceremonies. And that brings us to today’s nominees and how I think that overlap will occur this year:

In the Gotham Best Feature race, the nominees are:

The Favourite

First Reformed

If Beale Street Could Talk

Madeline’s Madeline

The River

The average number of Gotham/Oscar film nominees lately has been two and that likely holds true here with The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk. The other three are highly unlikely to get Academy recognition.

In the Best Actor race, the nominees are:

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

LaKeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You

Grant is probably this year’s Willem Dafoe and will be recognized by the Academy in Supporting Actor. Adam Driver falls in the same category, but is more of a long shot. Stanfield is out of the running for Actor at the Oscars, while Foster and Hawke remain possibilities. That said – like 2015 – this could well be a year where there’s no matches.

That is not the case with Actress and the nominees are:

Glenn Close, The Wife

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Kathryn Hahn, Private Life

Regina Hall, Support the Girls

Michelle Pfeiffer, Where is Kyra?

Collette is a possible nominee, but it’s Close that seems a near lock for Oscar attention and a possible win. The others? Not so much.

Finally, a Special Jury prize was initiated that honors the three actresses from The Favourite. That would be Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz and all three could find themselves in the mix at Oscar time. The Gothams did the same jury designation for 2014’s Foxcatcher and 2015’s Spotlight. 

So there you have it! My take on how the Gotham Awards will relate to the biggest awards show of all…

 

Oscar Watch: Colette

The first major distribution deal at the Sundance Film Festival transpired this weekend when Bleecker Street and 30WEST acquired the rights to Colette. The biopic focuses on acclaimed French novelist Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette, played by Keira Knightley in a performance that has critics raving. Costars include Dominic West and Fiona Shaw. The pic is directed by Wash Westmoreland, who last helped guide Julianne Moore to a Best Actress Oscar in Still Alice.

It’s safe to assume the studios who payed for Colette will be making a push for Knightley to nab her second nomination after Pride and Prejudice in 2005. Her inclusion will depend on the competition over the next year and how well the film is marketed to audiences.

Bottom line: there’s enough buzz out of Utah to justify Knightley as one to watch in 2018.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Todd’s Weekly 2017 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.

Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:

  • The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
  • The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
  • Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
  • Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
  • Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.

You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 7)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mudbound (PR: 8)

11. Get Out (PR: 11)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. Detroit (PR: 13)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 5)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)

7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)

8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)

10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

3. Mudbound (PR: 2)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

7. Wonder (PR: 7)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Get Out (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)

3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Despicable Me 3

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)

3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)

4. In the Fade (PR: 2)

5. The Insult (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. The Square (PR: 5)

8. Loveless (PR: 7)

9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Happy End

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

4. Icarus (PR: 3)

5. Faces Places (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 8)

7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

8. Risk (PR: 7)

9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Step

The Final Year

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 4)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Mudbound (PR: 10)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonder (PR: 7)

10. It (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Thor: Ragnarok

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Beauty and the Beast

Best Sound Mixing 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

5. Detroit (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)

And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:

11 Nominations

Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Phantom Thread

6 Nominations

Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

1 Nomination

Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall. 

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 27th Edition

I’m back at it again with my post Turkey Day Oscar predictions. The winner of this particular week is Phantom Thread, which has held screenings. While reviews are under strict embargo until next week, there is some positive word emanating from the Twitterverse. It’s buzz could certainly change once official reviews are released, but for now I’ve got it in Best Picture for the first time and that means The Florida Project has been taken out. Additionally, Phantom has gone from an estimated four nods last week to seven today. 

Steven Spielberg’s The Post is also gaining traction even though official reviews aren’t yet out. It’s doubled my predicted nomination count from 4 to 8 this week.

If there’s a loser this week, it’s Darkest Hour. I had it at 10 nominations last week and now I have it at 6.

Some other developments:

Best Director has two newbies: Spielberg and Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. That means Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) and Dee Rees (Mudbound) are currently out.

In Best Actor, I’ve removed Andrew Garfield (Breathe) in favor of James Franco (The Disaster Artist).

Changes in both Supporting races as I’ve put Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) in and taken Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) out. In Supporting Actress, I’ve vaulted Lesley Manville’s (there’s buzz) work in Phantom Thread in, therefore removing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.

Here’s how I’ve got it all playing out!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. Lady Bird (PR: 7)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. The Post (PR: 8)

8. Mudbound (PR: 5)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

Other Possibilities:

10. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

11. Get Out (PR: 10)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

13. Detroit (PR: 14)

14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 15)

15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri  (PR: 4)

4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

7. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Sean Baker, The Florida Project

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 3)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)

7. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 5)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 10)

10. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

7. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)

9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)

9. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)

5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)

7. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 10)

8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

9. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Breathe

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

7. Wonder (PR: 10)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

9. First, They Killed My Father (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Stronger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Get Out (PR: 4)

5. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

9. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

3. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)

5. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

9. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Girl Without Hands

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. In the Fade (PR: 2)

3. Foxtrot (PR: 5)

4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)

5. The Square (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. Loveless (PR: 7)

8. The Divine Order (PR: 9)

9. The Insult (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Happy End (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Tom of Finland

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 2)

2. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)

3. Icarus (PR: 3)

4. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Step (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Risk (PR: 7)

8. Strong Island (PR: 5)

9. Faces Places (PR: 10)

10. The Final Year (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kedi

Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 7)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

8. Lady Bird (PR: 6)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Get Out

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 6)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

9. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mudbound (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

4. The Post (PR: 7)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 3)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Murder on the Orient Express 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. I, Tonya (PR: 7)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

10. It (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)

7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)

9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 10)

8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)

9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Coco

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)

8. Detroit (PR: 7)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Darkest Hour

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 6)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)

3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 3)

7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 4)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“Jump” from Step

And that tallies up the following nominations for each film:

13 Nominations

The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

Dunkirk

8 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Phantom Thread

6 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

5 Nominations

Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049

4 Nominations

Beauty and the Beast

3 Nominations

Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, Baby Driver

1 Nomination

Stronger, The Florida Project, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Cars 3, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Jane, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall

I’ll be back at it next Monday with updated predictions!