The Supporting Actress derby is up next for my deep dives in the six major categories (Picture, Director, the 4 acting competitions). If you missed my current take on Supporting Actor, it’s here:
With two months left to go in the calendar year, it’s a good time to take stock in where we stand in 2022 with the various hopefuls. In 2019 and 2020 in late October, I correctly identified 3 of the 5 eventual nominees in Supporting Actress. Three years ago, that included eventual winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell). I had Scarlett Johansson listed in Other Possibilities for Jojo Rabbit while not having Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) yet on the radar. A year later, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were already in my top five. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) took the gold. Both she and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were tagged in Other Possibilities.
The ratio dropped in 2021. I named 2 of the 5 women with Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (who won) and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. 2 nominees – Judi Dench (Belfast) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) – were in Other Possibilities while Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) wasn’t in my listed ten.
We arrive at 2022 where Ms. Buckley is in the mix again. She appears in Women Talking alongside a large ensemble of additional actresses. This film gives us the highest probability of seeing double nominees from the same picture. It’s happened three times since 2010. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams were up for The Fighter that year with Leo emerging victorious. In 2011, Octavia Spencer took the statue for The Help with Jessica Chastain also making the cut. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were both in the mix for 2018’s The Favourite.
With Women Talking, the Academy could dive a tad deeper with Judith Ivery and Sheila McCarthy (who are standouts). I suspect they’ll go with Buckley and Claire Foy (who was notably snubbed three years ago for First Man). I’ve had the latter listed in first place as she’s got a slightly meatier role.
That brings us to a key caveat in this race. A few weeks back, there was the unexpected announcement that Michelle Williams in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in lead actress. She could’ve easily been placed here. If the studio had done that, I would continue to have Williams at #1 and feel confident that she’d win her first Oscar. However, in the Best Actress competition, I only have her in fourth position as of my last forecast.
Back to performers who are eligible in this. As long as The Banshees of Inisherin performs well with voters (and it should), Kerry Condon should make the quintet and could be a threat to win. Truth be told, this seems like a wide open competition without Williams. I could see either Women Talking actress at the podium or Condon. Same goes for Hong Chau as Brendan Fraser’s caretaker in The Whale or Stephanie Hsu as the world altering daughter in Everything Everywhere All at Once. That film offers the possibility of an additional double nomination with Jamie Lee Curtis’s nearly unrecognizable role. As for The Whale, I think Chau is far more likely than costar Sadie Sink.
I’m not as sold on Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, which may not make a dent at the ceremony. The many negative reviews for The Son have me questioning the viability of Vanessa Kirby or Laura Dern. Cha Cha Real Smooth might be too small for Dakota Johnson to nab her first Academy mention. Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King seems like a stretch. There’s unseen performances that could rise up like Kate Winslet (Avatar: The Way of Water) or Jean Smart (Babylon). Of all those choices, only Smart is in the top ten.
Critics groups may be integral in weeding out the nominees. This is where we could see Nina Hoss (Tár) or Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) rise up. Or we could get a nominee from a forthcoming hit such as Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) or Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Over the past couple of months, all of my five nominees have come from films that I have in my 1o Best Picture hopefuls. That also holds true for Supporting Actor. And, frankly, that usually doesn’t happen. This is partly why I’m putting Carey Mulligan (She Said) in my projections after the studio announced she’ll vie for supporting instead of lead. I’ve got She Said barely missing a BP nod.
Bottom line: nothing is close to being settled in Supporting Actress and the talking about these women could change as we get closer to nomination time.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
Elvis has left the top ten predicted nominees in my Best Picture rankings and it’s Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave back in the mix. The good news continues for Leave as it returns to #1 in International Feature Film over its close competitor All Quiet on the Western Front.
While the directing and lead acting derbies remain the same, there are changes in both supporting races. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is back in Supporting Actress over Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness). Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) falls out of the Supporting Actor quintet with Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) moving up.
Another picture increasing its nomination count is Living. I already had Bill Nighy in the Best Actor five and I’m now putting it in Adapted Screenplay while removing White Noise. Living also makes its debut in Costume Design for a total of three nods.
Later this week, I’ll have State of the Race detailed posts on the six major competitions (Picture, Director, the 4 acting contests).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Tár (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)
12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elvis (PR: 9) (-3)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Till
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Strange World (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alcarras (PR: 8) (E)
9. Klondike (PR: 6) (-3)
10. EO (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1 . All the Beautyand the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Aftershock (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emancipation
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Corsage (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-2)
10. X (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Blonde
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tár (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)
4.“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 9) (E)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Is Not Love” from Bros
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Bardo
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
5 Nominations
Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living
2 Nominations
Bardo, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing
On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.
Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).
I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.
Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.
She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.
In other developments:
I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)
12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sr.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Thirteen Lives
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis
5 Nominations
Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise
In the past week, the biggest Oscar news was the announcement that Emancipation with Will Smith will debut in December and therefore be eligible for consideration. You can read my thoughts on that here:
As you’ll see below, Emancipation doesn’t make much of an impact anywhere in my estimates. However, I am putting Will Smith in at 10th for Best Actor. Part of that is the fairly weak field for lead actor (especially compared to Actress). Do I think Smith will get a nod? No, but it’s not entirely out of the question if his performance is critically hailed.
My BP lineup has one change with Triangle of Sadness back in the top ten over Decision to Leave.
In other developments:
Todd Field (Tar) returns to the directorial quintet and that removes Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front.
While the Best Actress field remains the same, Danielle Deadwyler’s work in Till rises to 2nd place after rave notices at the New York Film Festival.
Brad Pitt (Babylon), who’s been subject to some bad press this week, falls out of my Supporting Actor five in favor of Ben Whishaw for Women Talking.
Babylon has also been taken out of my Original Screenplay selections with Tar being elevated.
There’s a new #1 in Documentary Feature with Descendant nabbing the slot over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Elvis (PR: 13) (E)
14. Till (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Woman King (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Broker (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Bros
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Till (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (E)
7. Argetina, 1985 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Klondike (PR: 8) (E)
9. Alcarras (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
EO
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Descendant (PR: 3) (+2)
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. Corsage (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Living (PR: 9) (E)
10. Amsterdam (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
8. X (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Vegas” from Elvis
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nope (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. RRR (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light
2 Nominations
Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Till, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
For the time being at least, I’m settling on Edward Berger’s antiwar epic All Quiet on the Western Front as Netflix’s strongest contender. It moves into my predicted BP hopefuls for the first time and that takes out Triangle of Sadness. Additionally, Berger is in the quintet for Director and it’s Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) that drops. The Quiet love shows up in International Feature Film where it moves to first place with Leave sliding to runner-up status.
We also have a category placement change to discuss. While nothing has been announced, it makes a lot of sense for Babylon‘s Margot Robbie to move to Supporting Actress after Michelle Williams (rather inexplicably) elevated to Best Actress for The Fabelmans. Robbie moves there (hopefully Paramount lets us know soon) so Danielle Deadwyler is back in Best Actress. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is now on the outside looking in for supporting.
There’s a change in Actor as I’m finally putting Diego Calva (Babylon) in over Bill Nighy (Living). In Original Screenplay, The Fabelmans is now #1 over Everything.
The New York Film Festival starts this weekend. By the time of my next update, we will know what the real prospects are for Till with She Said soon to follow.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Whale (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Elvis (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Empire of Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon – moved to Supporting Actress
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)
10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Best Actress
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Vanessa Kirby, The Son
Jean Smart, Babylon
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Judd Hirsch, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bros (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Living (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
9. EO (PR: 9) (E)
10. Alcarras (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Eight Mountains
Plan 75
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. Navalny (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Descendant (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All That Breathes (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 6) (E)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Riotsville, U.S.A.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tar
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Corsage (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. X (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tar (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)
4. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Vegas” from Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
“Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)
8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Batman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nope (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (-3)
10. RRR (PR: 9) (-1)
And that equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Women Talking
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
3 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Tar
2 Nominations
Decision to Leave, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, The Batman, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Marry Me, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strangle World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
Viola Davis is the most nominated actress in history with four to her credit and one victory for 2016’s Fences. In The Woman King, the EOT recipient (missing that Grammy!) is in action heroine mode in this historical epic set in 19th century West Africa. Gina Prince-Bythewood directs with a supporting cast including Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim, and John Boyega.
Prior to its September 16th premiere, King has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival and there’s not a negative review to be found. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a clean 100%. Per usual, plenty of praise is going to Davis and it’s certainly possible she could join the five-timers club. I don’t believe that’s automatic as competition could be as fierce as the warrior she portrays.
A lot of King‘s feasibility for Oscar noms could come down to whether this hits at the box office. That remains to be seen. If so, we could see Davis in lead and either Mbedu or Lynch in supporting (both are being talked up for their contributions). I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for Best Picture to be a realistic nod. Tech nods are doable regardless like Costume Design and Production Design. It’s also just as possible that this is a solid genre flick that won’t catch the Academy’s attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Viola Davis headlines the 19th century set African action epic The Woman King on September 16th. It comes from director Gina Prince-Bythewood, who recently helmed the Charlize Theron Netflix flick The Old Guard. Based on a story co-written by actress Maria Bello, the supporting cast includes Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim, and John Boyega.
With a reported midsize budget of roughly $50 million, King premieres at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. That’s where buzz will begin to circulate and that could help or hinder its domestic box office prospects. With the barren landscape of new material out there, this should easily premiere in first place. However, I’m skeptical this reaches the higher end of its range ($20 million). A lower teens start seems more feasible unless the chatter picks up considerably.
The Woman King opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million
As May comes to a close and the Cannes Film Festival wraps up, I’m giving you a fresh update in the six major Oscar categories!
In Best Picture, I’m elevating Empire of Light from Sam Mendes into the top ten and that takes Rustin out. The Daniels from Everything Everywhere All at Once vault into Director to the detriment of Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
Empire of Light also benefits in Best Actress with Olivia Colman in over Carey Mulligan from She Said. While Actor and Supporting Actress remain unchanged, there’s two alterations in Supporting Actor with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere…) and Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) in over John David Washington (Amsterdam) and Tom Hanks (Elvis).
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. She Said (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-3)
15. White Noise (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+5)
17. Elvis (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Poor Things (PR: 14) (-4)
19. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Armageddon Time (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Till (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Tar (PR: 17) (-7)
25. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Hirokazu Kore’eda, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 8) (-4)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
George C. Wolfe, Rustin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7 (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Disappointment Blvd.
Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Margaret Qualley, Poor Things
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+4)
My second round of Oscar predictions in the six biggest races are before you. When I update them next, we’ll be in the midst of the Cannes Film Festival where some of these hopefuls are screening.
As for category placement changes, I’ve moved Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon to Supporting Actor from lead. It remains to be seen which contest he’s placed in. If it is supporting, we shall see if it’s him or Robert De Niro that gets the buzz. I’m betting on the latter at press time.
Let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. She Said (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (E)
17. Tar (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Till (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Armageddon Time (PR: 25) (+6)
20. Elvis (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Woman King (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-6)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-2)
11. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (E)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
Welcome to the first ranked Oscar predictions of the 2022 season for the 95th Academy Awards! I’ll be doing these every few days (once a week or every two weeks) for the high-profile races of Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. In the fall (maybe earlier), this will expand to all categories covering feature lengths films.
For BP, I will list 25 possibilities with 15 hopefuls in the others. Some quick caveats that always apply – titles of the pictures will change. Just this week, David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass became Amsterdam and Avatar 2 is now Avatar: The Way of Water.
Actors listed in lead will become supporting players and vice versa. Some movies will be pushed to 2023. And, of course, titles listed on the first day of May will become commercial and critical disappointments and drop off the list. Some pics and performances I’m not even considering at the moment will rise during festivals like Cannes, Toronto, Telluride, and Venice.
So let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Son
5. Women Talking
6. She Said
7. Bardo
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. The Whale
10. Rustin
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam
12. White Noise
13. Poor Things
14. Tar
15. Till
16. Empire of Light
17. Avatar: The Way of Water
18. Don’t Worry Darling
19. Next Goal Wins
20. Thirteen Lives
21. The Banshees of Inisherin
22. Elvis
23. The Woman King
24. Three Thousand Years of Longing
25. Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Florian Zeller, The Son
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
9. Maria Schrader, She Said
10. George C. Wolfe, Rustin
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise
14. David O. Russell, Amsterdam
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon
2. Regina King, Shirley
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Carey Mulligan, She Said
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things
10. Laura Dern, The Son
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King
12. Greta Gerwig, White Noise
13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
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