In the spring of 1997, 20th Century Fox re-released the original Star Wars trilogy to impressive box office numbers. Timed to the 20th anniversary of Episode IV, it helped build already sky high anticipation for 1999’s Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace. Now 25 years after its debut, Disney/20th Century Studios has it back in multiplexes.
George Lucas’s return behind the camera was probably the most breathlessly awaited movie of all time a quarter century ago. It broke records in its initial release and ended up with a domestic haul of $431 million. A 3D re-release in 2012 pushed it to $474 million.
Carefully timed so that the Saturday falls on May 4th (a sacred day for followers of the franchise), Phantom will try to push its stateside total to nearly half a billion. Of course, Menace is not beloved in the way that episodes 4-6 are. Back in ’97, the Star Wars re-release took in nearly $36 million out of the gate. A few weeks later, The Empire Strikes Back debuted to $21.9 million while Return of the Jedi made off with $16.2 million.
Phantom is not expected to reach those figures and may even struggle to hit double digits. Yet with a reported 2600 screens, it should manage a second or third place premiere and I’ll give it mid single digits.
Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
The summer box office season officially rises with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy as horror pic Tarot is also on deck. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Blogger’s Update (04/30): A couple hours after posting, per the comments below, I realized the large theatrical output that The Phantom Menance re-release is getting this weekend. My $6.8M projection puts it in third.
Loosely based on the 1980s action show, the supporting Oscar nominees from Barbenheimer should dominate the charts with The Fall Guy. This is the rare year in the past decade and a half that the MCU is sitting the first frame of May out. Fall won’t climb anywhere near as high as that franchise does to kick off the season. A best case scenario might be $50 million, but I’ve got it in the high 30s. This should leg out impressively over the coming weeks.
As for Tarot, a mid single digits take should place it fourth behind the second weekend of current champ Challengers and Phantom. Scary movies have struggled lately with recent genre titles failing to reach $10 million out of the box.
The sophomore drop for Challengers could have a somewhat wide range. A low to mid 40s decline would be considered a win. I suspect it might see a fall in the high 40s or low 50s region.
Another question mark is the percentage reduction for faith-based drama Unsung Hero in weekend #2. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, audiences are liking what they see and should be recommending to friends and, in this case, fellow parishioners. It might only witness a 25-35% decrease and has a decent shot at being fourth if Tarot comes in under my meager projection.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should round out the high six and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
3. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Tarot
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Unsung Hero
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (April 26-28)
Zendaya and company fought off all competitors as Challengers served up $15 million in its opening. The well-reviewed love triangle didn’t quite match my $16.2 million forecast. It ended up right in its anticipated range.
Unsung Hero was runner-up with a solid $7.7 million, besting my $5.9 million call. In its first weekend it made back its tiny $6 million price tag and, as mentioned, should hold up well in the near future.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third in weekend #5 at $7.2 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall take is a roaring $181 million.
Civil War plummeted from 1st to 4th with $7 million while still topping my $6.3 million projection. The three-week tally is $56 million.
Abigail rounded out the top five in its sophomore go-round at $5.2 million (I was close at $5.4 million). Total is $18 million.
Finally, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare was sixth with $3.8 million. I was higher at $5.2 million as it dove a hefty 57% in its second weekend.
Sam H. Freeman and Ng Choon Ping’s LGBTQ+ revenge thriller Femme first screened at the Berlin Film Festival back in February 2023 with a U.K. premiere in December. After a limited stateside release in March, it hits streaming services tomorrow. The recipient of 11 British Independent Film Awards, the sole win was for its two leads Nathan Stewart-Jarrett and George MacKay in Best Joint Lead Performance. It is a feature-length adaptation of a BAFTA nominated short film from 2021.
Unlike like their Independent counterparts, the BAFTAs ignored the full-length Femme despite strong reviews (94% on RT). 1917 star MacKay made the long list for Best Actor, but didn’t place among the 6 eventual nominees. Though it should be eligible for this year’s Oscars due to the spring release, the Academy is unlikely to put it in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Caitlin Cronenberg has entered the feature film family business with the release of Humane over the weekend. The horror thriller stars Jay Baruchel, Emily Hampshire, Peter Gallagher, Enrico Colantoni, and Sebastian Chacon.
Judging by the reaction, Cronenberg is playing in the same genre pool as her dad David and brother Brandon. As with the majority of her brood’s recent works, the verdict is mixed with a RT score of 69%.
That means Oscar attention should be non-existent. David’s Crimes of the Future did manage to make the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist in 2022, but missed the final cut. Brandon’s Infinity Pool also drew a variety of opinions with no awards buzz. The same should hold true here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
If the Oscars ever do bring in a Best Stunt Ensemble race at their ceremony, perhaps a post for something like Boy Kills World would feel more appropriate. This is the latest John Wick style action thriller marking the directorial debut of Moritz Mohr. Bill Skarsgård is the central character in revenge mode after his family bites the dust. Costars include Jessica Rothe, Michelle Dockery, Famke Janssen, Sharlto Copley, Brett Gelman, Isaiah Mutafa, and Andrew Koji.
Out this weekend, this failed to generate any box office heat with less than $2 million. Critics were a tad kinder with a meh 61% RT score. The Wick pics get buzz for potential Sound or VE nods that do not materialize. If they can’t manage it, these perceived knock-offs are far behind. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers swings and lands and swings and misses and misses and lands and repeats. Strengths become flaws as the EDM score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross is a charge to hear until it isn’t. The non-linear structure of the love triangle provides glimpses of high-powered melodrama, but it’s also distractingly messy in at least equal measure. Where I find no fault was in the performances even if I wish the script from Justin Kuritzkes served them better.
Volleying between 2006 and 2019 and significant points in between, we are introduced to BFF’s Art (Mike Faist) and Patrick (Josh O’Connor) as tennis juniors champs at the US Open. Along with the rest of the sports world, they are smitten by highly touted prospect Tashi (Zendaya) who is biding her going pro jump until the right moment. A late night meeting at a hotel on the day of the boys’ introduction to her provides fireworks that will complicate and influence their dynamic for the next decade plus.
It is 13 years after that encounter that Art and Patrick, long estranged, hurdle toward a match at a Challenger event. Tashi’s go pro unveiling never came into focus, but she and Art have formed a potent partnership while Patrick’s career has stalled. Flashbacks fill in other pertinent details and haphazardly at times. Despite its 131 minutes of action, characterizations of the players can run frustratingly thin.
Tashi seems to hold a lot of power over the gents and Zendaya’s work sells it. She cannot impose her will on the court and strives to do so with those competing on it via other methods. Kudos to the Dune heroine for nailing this unlikable character that should have been more fleshed out. O’Connor and Faist also excel with the former perhaps more of a breakout.
There’s really no one to root for in Challengers by design as this less than holy trinity think far more about themselves than others. You may find yourself calculating who among them is the worst offender. Guadagnino turns the aforementioned score and soap opera vibes up loudly. It works often as a pure guilty pleasure. By its conclusion, however, I might’ve been laughing at the stylistic flourishes and not with it.
Based on the early 90s novel Horrorscope from Nicholas Adams, Tarot is the latest scary movie hoping to bring in genre enthusiasts. Spenser Cohen and Anna Halberg share directorial duties with a cast including Harriet Slater, Adain Bradley, Avantika Vandanapu, Wolfgang Novogratz, and Jacob Batalon.
Moviegoers have been caught in a web of horror titles over the last several weeks. From Imaginary to The First Omen to Abigail, grosses have been unimpressive as all three of those pics have debuted in the $8-10 million range.
Tarot might be lucky to do that. Plenty of potential viewers will be preoccupied with The Fall Guy. That’s in addition to the aforementioned oversaturated market as of late. I say mid single digits is (yes…) in the cards.
For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.
This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).
Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).
I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.
The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million
For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:
Stress Positions marks the feature-length debut for filmmaker and musician Thea Hammel. Set in the early days of COVID, the dramedy stars John Early, Qaher Harhash, Faheem Ali, and Amy Zimmer, and Hammel herself. After a Sundance premiere, it was released in limited fashion last weekend.
The Neon distributed effort has generated some glowing notices, but they’re mixed with some so-so takes. It stands at 68% on Rotten Tomatoes. That puts Stress in a non-position for awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After hitting Cannes last May and debuting in European markets in the fall, Jessica Hausner’s dark satire Club Zero is rolling out in limited fashion stateside. Mia Wasikowska plays a boarding school teacher leading a handful of students down an eating disorder rabbit hole. Costars include Sidse Babett Knudsen, Elsa Zylberstein, Mathieu Demy, and Amir El-Masry.
Zero failed to generate significant buzz on the festival circuit and that may explain the time it took for domestic distribution. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mixed 66%. Despite a lot of praise for Wasikowska in particular, this April premiere indicates little faith that awards buzz will come its way. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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