Tag: Challengers

May 17-19 Box Office Predictions

John Krasinski’s fantastical family flick IF looks to top the box office charts while horror prequel The Strangers: Chapter 1 and the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

IF Box Office Prediction
The Strangers: Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
Back to Black Box Office Prediction

IF is a tricky one to call. It has star power in the form of Ryan Reynolds and plenty of familiar faces voicing the various imaginary friends in the cast. On the other hand, this is original IP and it could struggle to break out with more franchise friendly titles for the fam coming our way this season (The Garfield Movie, Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4). I’m giving it a mid to high 30s start as it will hope to leg out well over the next several weeks.

The runner-up spot should go to current champ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (barring a massive underperformance from IF). The tenth feature overall in the long-running series premiered at highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). Its sophomore dip could be substantial. While 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes fell only 50%, follow-up War for the Planet of the Apes in 2017 tumbled 63%. It didn’t help that War faced direct competition from Dunkirk in its first outing. Then there’s the surprising B Cinemascore grade for Kingdom and that’s low for a blockbuster. Word-of-mouth could be an issue. I have it sliding in the high 50s or low 60s for a low to mid 20s second frame.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 could face the same genre hurdles that other recent titles have including Abigail and The First Omen. My estimate just north of $10 million puts it in third for a muted third place beginning.

The Fall Guy should continue its underwhelming run in fourth with a low to mid 40s ease in weekend #3.

With mostly poor reviews, a mid single digits start for Back to Black would have it rounding out the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. IF

Predicted Gross: $36.3 million

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. The Strangers: Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

4. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Back to Black

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (May 10-12)

It was a wonderful weekend for 20th Century Studios as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes proved the franchise is in good working order. Arriving seven years after predecessor War, it topped that film’s gross with $58.4 million. That’s third in the series only to 2014’s Dawn and Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining and ahead of my $55.2 million call.

The Fall Guy fell to second with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.2 million prediction. The total sits at a ho-hum $49 million after ten days as the summer’s first flop will likely not reach nine figures domestically.

Challengers was third with $4.3 million (I said $4.7 million) as its three-week tally is $37 million.

I did not correctly identify the fourth and fifth place finishers. Why? Well… the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace was down a gargantuan 84% to $1.4 million (to bring its take to $486 million since 1999). I was far more generous and thought it would do $4 million. Oops.

That’s nothing compared to my overestimate of the Tyler Perry filmography spoof Not Another Church Movie. I had it in third place with $4.9 million. Instead it was 13th with a whopping…. $391k. Apparently filmgoers will go to Perry’s pics and do not want to see them made fun of.

Fourth place went to Tarot in its second go-round with $3.4 million. That’s actually a fine hold for horror as it has reached $11.9 million.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $2.6 million to bring its numbers to $191 million after seven weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction
Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.

As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).

There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.

Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million

2. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Not Another Church Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (May 3-5)

Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.

The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.

Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.

Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.

Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Wicked

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Wang, Dídi

Alex Garland, Civil War

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

May 3-5 Box Office Predictions

The summer box office season officially rises with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy as horror pic Tarot is also on deck. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction
Tarot Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/30): A couple hours after posting, per the comments below, I realized the large theatrical output that The Phantom Menance re-release is getting this weekend. My $6.8M projection puts it in third.

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

Loosely based on the 1980s action show, the supporting Oscar nominees from Barbenheimer should dominate the charts with The Fall Guy. This is the rare year in the past decade and a half that the MCU is sitting the first frame of May out. Fall won’t climb anywhere near as high as that franchise does to kick off the season. A best case scenario might be $50 million, but I’ve got it in the high 30s. This should leg out impressively over the coming weeks.

As for Tarot, a mid single digits take should place it fourth behind the second weekend of current champ Challengers and Phantom. Scary movies have struggled lately with recent genre titles failing to reach $10 million out of the box.

The sophomore drop for Challengers could have a somewhat wide range. A low to mid 40s decline would be considered a win. I suspect it might see a fall in the high 40s or low 50s region.

Another question mark is the percentage reduction for faith-based drama Unsung Hero in weekend #2. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, audiences are liking what they see and should be recommending to friends and, in this case, fellow parishioners. It might only witness a 25-35% decrease and has a decent shot at being fourth if Tarot comes in under my meager projection.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should round out the high six and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $38.3 million

2. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

3. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

4. Tarot

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Unsung Hero

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

Box Office Results (April 26-28)

Zendaya and company fought off all competitors as Challengers served up $15 million in its opening. The well-reviewed love triangle didn’t quite match my $16.2 million forecast. It ended up right in its anticipated range.

Unsung Hero was runner-up with a solid $7.7 million, besting my $5.9 million call. In its first weekend it made back its tiny $6 million price tag and, as mentioned, should hold up well in the near future.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third in weekend #5 at $7.2 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall take is a roaring $181 million.

Civil War plummeted from 1st to 4th with $7 million while still topping my $6.3 million projection. The three-week tally is $56 million.

Abigail rounded out the top five in its sophomore go-round at $5.2 million (I was close at $5.4 million). Total is $18 million.

Finally, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare was sixth with $3.8 million. I was higher at $5.2 million as it dove a hefty 57% in its second weekend.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Challengers Review

Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers swings and lands and swings and misses and misses and lands and repeats. Strengths become flaws as the EDM score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross is a charge to hear until it isn’t. The non-linear structure of the love triangle provides glimpses of high-powered melodrama, but it’s also distractingly messy in at least equal measure. Where I find no fault was in the performances even if I wish the script from Justin Kuritzkes served them better.

Volleying between 2006 and 2019 and significant points in between, we are introduced to BFF’s Art (Mike Faist) and Patrick (Josh O’Connor) as tennis juniors champs at the US Open. Along with the rest of the sports world, they are smitten by highly touted prospect Tashi (Zendaya) who is biding her going pro jump until the right moment. A late night meeting at a hotel on the day of the boys’ introduction to her provides fireworks that will complicate and influence their dynamic for the next decade plus.

It is 13 years after that encounter that Art and Patrick, long estranged, hurdle toward a match at a Challenger event. Tashi’s go pro unveiling never came into focus, but she and Art have formed a potent partnership while Patrick’s career has stalled. Flashbacks fill in other pertinent details and haphazardly at times. Despite its 131 minutes of action, characterizations of the players can run frustratingly thin.

Tashi seems to hold a lot of power over the gents and Zendaya’s work sells it. She cannot impose her will on the court and strives to do so with those competing on it via other methods. Kudos to the Dune heroine for nailing this unlikable character that should have been more fleshed out. O’Connor and Faist also excel with the former perhaps more of a breakout.

There’s really no one to root for in Challengers by design as this less than holy trinity think far more about themselves than others. You may find yourself calculating who among them is the worst offender. Guadagnino turns the aforementioned score and soap opera vibes up loudly. It works often as a pure guilty pleasure. By its conclusion, however, I might’ve been laughing at the stylistic flourishes and not with it.

**1/2 (out of four)

April 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Zendaya hopes to serve up healthy box office numbers as her sports drama Challengers debuts this weekend. We also have the faith-based drama Unsung Hero out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Challengers Box Office Prediction
Unsung Hero Box Office Prediction

With impressive reviews and Zendaya hot off Dune: Part Two, Challengers should face no challenge in topping the charts. $20M+ is within the realm of possibility, but so is low teens. I’m in the middle of that range.

The numbers for slots 2-6 should be close. Unsung Hero is of a genre that can often surprise. However, my sub $6M projection puts it in fourth.

A mid 40s drop for Civil War would drop it to second after two weeks in first. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire could hold in third with Abigail falling to fifth in its sophomore frame after a lackluster start (more on that below). That leaves The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare rounding out the top six after its mediocre premiere.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

2. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

3. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $6 million

4. Unsung Hero

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Abigail

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (April 19-21)

Civil War managed to stay at #1 in its second weekend despite a 56% plummet. Alex Garland’s dystopian action flick made $11.1 million, close to my $11.8 million prediction. The two-week gross is $44 million.

While the rollout didn’t totally suck, Abigail‘s #2 posting lacked bite. The vampire story scored solid reviews, but started on the lowest end of its anticipated range with $10.2 million. I gave it a bit more credit with a $13.1 million projection.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third with $9.5 million, just ahead of my $8.7 million call. The monster mashup has amassed $171 million after four weeks.

Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare took in a ho-hum $8.9 million for fourth position. It did manage to outdo my $7.6 million forecast.

Crunchyroll’s latest anime offering Spy x Family Code: White rounded out the top five with an unremarkable $4.8 million. That’s below the studio’s latest domestic outputs and well under my $9.8 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Sing Sing

5. The End

6. Queer

7. The Fire Inside

8. Bird

9. Kinds of Kindness

10. Dídi

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux

12. The Apprentice

13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

15. Civil War

16. Maria

17. Megalopolis

18. The Piano Lesson

19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

20. A Real Pain

21. Here

22. The Nickel Boys

23. Hard Truths

24. Wicked

25. Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

12. Sean Wang, Dídi

13. Alex Garland, Civil War

14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

5. Tilda Swinton, The End

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

13. Zendaya, Challengers

14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

4. Daniel Craig, Queer

5. André Holland, The Actor

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

7. George MacKay, The End

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joan Chen, Dídi

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

4. Lesley Manville, Queer

5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

8. Drew Starkey, Queer

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

11. John Lithgow, Conclave

12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!

Challengers Box Office Prediction

Luca Guadagnino’s sports love triangle Challengers hopes to serve up winning box office numbers when it opens April 26th. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist headline the critically hailed pic that was originally slated for last fall until the actors strike pushed it to spring.

Zendaya is hot off Dune: Part Two and buzz for this follow-up is impressive. The RT score is a sizzling 96%. It will need to make its money off star power as romantic dramas can be a tough sell.

I suspect the worst case scenario is a debut in the low double digits while the rosiest result could be a premiere in the low 20s. My forecast puts it in the mid to high teens.

Challengers opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million

For my Unsung Hero prediction, click here:

Unsung Hero Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: La chimera

After playing the festival circuit beginning in Cannes nearly a year ago and releasing overseas in autumn 2023, Alice Rohrwacher’s 1980s set romantic dramady La chimera is at last out in limited fashion domestically. Josh O’Connor (soon to be seen in the buzzy Challengers), Carol Duarte, Vincenzo Nemolato, Alba Rohrwacher (younger sibling of the director), and Isabella Rossellini star.

While chimera received a fine response in France and beyond (the RT score is 91%), the Italians chose Io capitano as their submission for International Feature Film at last year’s Oscars. Their choice paid off as it was one of the five nominated pics. Perhaps chimera would’ve made the cut though we’ll never know. Despite its Neon stateside distribution in 2024, this was eligible for the 96th Academy Awards so contention is moot for the 97th. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Challengers

Luca Guadagnino’s love triangle/sports drama Challengers was expected to open the Venice Film Festival last September and have a plum awards-friendly fall release date for 2023. The actors strike changed that dynamic and now it’s slated for April 26th. Could it still make a racket at the Oscars and beyond?

It might get some love in some categories. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist make up the aforementioned triangle. Reviews are strong with 96% on RT and critics praising their work. If any of the trio enter the mix, Zendaya seems to have the best shot. She’s said to serve up a career best performance according to several critics. The Dune: Part Two star was in the mix for 2021’s Malcolm & Marie, but ultimately didn’t make the cut. Her chances are fair though obviously lots of competition will come in the next several months.

A Best Picture nom may be a stretch. I wouldn’t totally discount it. However, Guadagnino has the historical drama Queer later in the year and it seems poised for a campaign in multiple categories. As for Challengers, Original Screenplay is a possibility. The race where do I expect a play is the Original Score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross as it’s being pointed out as a highlight frequently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…