Tag: Claire Foy

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 16th Edition

It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.

There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.

Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).

Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

I Play Rocky

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Fatherland

I Play Rocky

Josephine

Misty Green

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Prima Facie

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Wildwood

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)

3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Bride!

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

11 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

5 Nominations

Fjord, The Invite

4 Nominations

Behemoth!, Michael

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 2nd Edition

As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.

There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.

On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.

We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.

You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)

18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)

20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)

25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

Cry to Heaven

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)

7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)

12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)

7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)

13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)

3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)

4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)

10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rehearsals for a Revolution

Time and Water

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Best Cinemtography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Disclosure Day

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)

10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Odyssey

TBD from Wildwood

TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Mandalorian and Grogu

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

10 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

9 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Behemoth!, Fjord

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, The Invite

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

Oscar Predictions: Savage House

Some reviews indicate that Claire Foy and Richard E. Grant might be having more fun than the audience will in Savage House. The 18th century set British black comedy is from writer/director Peter Glanz with a supporting cast including Kila Lord Cassidy, Bel Powley, and Jack Farthing. Out this weekend in limited fashion, the Paramount release was originally slated for late 2024.

With 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, most of the praise is going to Foy (never nominated for an Oscar) and Grant (a 2018 supporting contender for Can You Ever Forgive Me?). Yet the mixed reaction means the Academy is likely to ignore it unless the studio can manage noms that can greet this genre like Costume Design
(more likely) and Production Design (less). I wouldn’t bet on it and I doubt the Globes or BAFTAs take notice either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Halle Bailey, No One Cares

Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

Claire Foy, Ink

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Michaela Coel, Mother Mary

Olivia Colman, Elsinore

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada 2

77th BAFTA Winner Predictions

Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).

For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Make-Up & Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Napoleon

Runner-Up: The Creator

Outstanding British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex

Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Rising Star

Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde

Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi

Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce

That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

5 Wins

Poor Things

2 Wins

Anatomy of a Fall

1 Win

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

77th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.

Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/6

Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.

Actress

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 3/6

More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

How I Did: 4/6

Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/6

Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

How I Did: 2/5

Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 3/4

As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.

British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 9/10

My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.

Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

How I Did: 1/5

Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did 4/5

Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is Oppenheimer.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.

That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:

13 Noininations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

9 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

6 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall

5 Nominations

Barbie, Saltburn

4 Nominations

Napoleon

3 Nominations

How to Have Sex, Past Lives

2 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka

I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.

77th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

This Thursday, nominations for the British Academy Film Awards (commonly known as BAFTA) will be unveiled prior to its February 18th airdate. After a busy precursor frame this past week, all eyes will be on BAFTA as we finalize our Oscar forecast for the big announcement in seven days.

As I do with other precursors, I’m giving you my picks along with an alternate. With the BAFTAs, there’s a mix of numbers for the races. Most are five though directing and the acting derbies are six with ten for Outstanding British Film and 4 for Animated Feature.

Got all that? Let’s get to it!

Film

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Alternate: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flowe Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Margot Robbie, Barbie

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Past Lives

Saltburn

Alternate: How to Have Sex

Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Casting

All of Us Strangers

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Saltburn

Alternate: The Holdovers

Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

British Film

All of Us Strangers

How to Have Sex

Napoleon

One Life

Poor Things

Rye Lane

Saltburn

Scrapper

Wonka

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Old Oak

Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The End We Start From

How to Have Sex

Polite Society

Rye Lane

Scrapper

Alternate: Is There Anybody Out There?

Film Not in English Language

Anatomy of a Fall

The Boy and the Heron

Fallen Leaves

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Society of the Snow

Documentary

20 Days in Mariupol

American Symphony

Beyond Utopia

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Wham!

Alternate: The Pigeon Tunnel

Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Maestro

Costume Design

Barbie

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Wonka

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Barbie

Makeup and Hair

Barbie

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Original Score

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Saltburn

Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Special Visual Effects

The Creator

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

That works out to the following number of nominations for these films:

15 Nominations

Oppenheimer

13 Nominations

Poor Things

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Barbie

6 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon

3 Nominations

The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, One Life, Rye Lane, Scrapper, Wonka

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Color Purple, The Creator, The End We Start From, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Nimona, Polite Society, Priscilla, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Gotham Nominations: A Notebook Report

The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.

That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.

We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.

This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).

Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.

In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.

The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.

Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).

How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)

My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:

Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).

One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).

We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.

At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin

Best Actor is up next!