The Venice Film Festival kicks off today with Telluride and Toronto soon to follow. Danny Boyle’s Ink is the Italian fest’s opening feature. The filmmaker’s Slumdog Millionaire was the Best Picture honoree in 2008. Based on the 2017 stage play, the film recounts the founding and evolution of British tabloid The Sun from the late 1960s to the 1980s. Jack O’Connell, Claire Foy, and Guy Pearce (as Rupert Murdoch) headline the cast. Ink is slated for a limited and Oscar-qualifying theatrical engagement on December 11th before a Netflix bow on January 8th.
Sometimes a festival premiere will greatly increase or decrease a pic’s awards viability. The initial reaction to Ink pretty much puts it where I assumed it was. With 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, reviews are generally praising many aspects without going overboard.
I’ve had Ink just on the outside looking in for Best Picture contention. My update three days ago had it 11th. Netflix faces a choice with how hard they go in their campaign as The Black Ball will likely be their main focus. Right now my hunch that it misses the BP cut feels correct.
The buzz from Venice also indicates that O’Connell, Foy, and Pearce all deliver fine performances. However, only Pearce seems truly viable for consideration in the Supporting Actor field. The veteran performer landed his first nom two years ago for The Brutalist and was arguably runner-up for the win. He is nowhere near a shoo-in to make the final five though I suspect he’ll be in the mix in a way his costars are not.
Ink could also play in Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. For the latter, that may apply only if it sneaks into the BP race. That is certainly a possibility, but I’m leaning the other way as the ink figuratively dries on this write-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.
September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.
Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.
Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.
There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).
You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)
16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fatherland
Artificial
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Artificial
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sense and Sensibility
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)
10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)
3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)
4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
When a Witness Recants
Musk
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“La Playa” from The Black Ball
TBD from Hexed
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
12 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood
Based on Enid Blyton’s fantasy children’s books that started hitting bookshelves nearly 90 years ago, The Magic Faraway Tree made its way to British theaters in March and domestic venues over the weekend. Ben Gregor directs with a cast including Andrew Garfield, Claire Foy, Nonso Anozie, Nicola Coughlan, Jessica Gunning, Jennifer Saunders, and Rebecca Ferguson.
The film has performed well enough in the U.K. that sequels are planned. However, in the U.S., audiences stayed far away from it with a teensy $1.3 million gross out of the gate. The per-theater average was just over $800. Reviews are pretty decent if not impressive with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic. This is not an Oscar contender anywhere, but I will note that BAFTA could nominate it in their Best Children’s & Family Film race. My Oscar Prediction (or in this case BAFTA) posts will continue…
It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.
There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.
Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).
Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
I Play Rocky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Fatherland
I Play Rocky
Josephine
Misty Green
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Prima Facie
A Long Winter
Minotaur
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)
3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
11 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
5 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
4 Nominations
Behemoth!, Michael
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood
As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.
There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.
On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.
We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.
You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)
25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
Cry to Heaven
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)
12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)
7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)
13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)
3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)
4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)
10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rehearsals for a Revolution
Time and Water
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Best Cinemtography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Disclosure Day
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)
10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Odyssey
TBD from Wildwood
TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Mandalorian and Grogu
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
10 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
9 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Behemoth!, Fjord
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, The Invite
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood
Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.
This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.
Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.
Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.
The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.
You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)
13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)
16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)
18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Werwulf
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Rami Malek, The Man I Love
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Debut
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)
11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)
12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
Jesse Plemons, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)
14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Long Winter
Best International Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)
3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)
4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Hexed
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Digger, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite,A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood
Some reviews indicate that Claire Foy and Richard E. Grant might be having more fun than the audience will in Savage House. The 18th century set British black comedy is from writer/director Peter Glanz with a supporting cast including Kila Lord Cassidy, Bel Powley, and Jack Farthing. Out this weekend in limited fashion, the Paramount release was originally slated for late 2024.
With 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, most of the praise is going to Foy (never nominated for an Oscar) and Grant (a 2018 supporting contender for Can You Ever Forgive Me?). Yet the mixed reaction means the Academy is likely to ignore it unless the studio can manage noms that can greet this genre like Costume Design (more likely) and Production Design (less). I wouldn’t bet on it and I doubt the Globes or BAFTAs take notice either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:
We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).
For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!
Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Make-Up & Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Napoleon
Runner-Up: The Creator
Outstanding British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex
Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Rising Star
Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde
Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi
Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce
That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
5 Wins
Poor Things
2 Wins
Anatomy of a Fall
1 Win
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.
Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/6
Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.
Actress
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 3/6
More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
How I Did: 4/6
Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 5/6
Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 4/6
Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
How I Did: 2/5
Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 3/4
As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.
British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 9/10
My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.
Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
How I Did: 1/5
Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did 4/5
Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is Oppenheimer.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.
That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:
13 Noininations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
9 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro
6 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall
5 Nominations
Barbie, Saltburn
4 Nominations
Napoleon
3 Nominations
How to Have Sex, Past Lives
2 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka
I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 