Lisa Frankenstein hopes to bring the box office to life when it opens February 9th. The horror comedy marks the directorial debut of Zelda Williams with a script from Juno and Jennifer’s Body scribe Diablo Coby. Kathryn Newton and Cole Sprouse headline with a supporting cast including Liza Soberano, Henry Eikenberry, Joe Chrest, and Carla Gugino.
The Focus Features production seeks out teens and horror fans, but could have trouble finding them. While the marketplace is starved for product at the moment, I don’t expect this to break the financial spell.
With a reported budget of only $13.5 million, Lisa should still manage about half of that figure for its start. I’m skeptical that it hits double digits out of the gate.
Lisa Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP lineup. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Bradley Cooper’s Maestro.
The Case for Maestro:
Marking the filmmaker’s second behind the camera effort after 2018’s A Star is Born, the Leonard Bernstein biopic landed BP nods at Critics Choice and the Globes. Cooper and costar Carey Mulligan have been a fixture in the lead acting derbies. Its seven total nominations matched and arguably even exceeded expectations. The other nods (Star managed one better at 8): the aforementioned Cooper and Mulligan in their respective races, Original Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound.
The Case Against Maestro:
It hasn’t won any of those BP competitions. The 80% Rotten Tomatoes score is actually the lowest of the ten hopefuls. BAFTA didn’t recognized it for Best Film. There were key misses in Director (just as Cooper missed that category for Star five years back) and Film Editing.
The Verdict:
Maestro has a solid chance at taking Makeup and Hairstyling. Everything else looks questionable and BP looks totally out of reach.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first four pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, and The Holdovers. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is up next for your consideration. Let’s get into it.
The Case for Killers of the Flower Moon:
Ranking third in number of nominations with 10 (behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things), Scorsese’s sprawling epic has earned BP mentions at BAFTA, Critics Choice, the Globes, and for its Ensemble at SAG. The other nominations are for Scorsese in Director, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. The legendary filmmaker achieves his 10th movie up for the big prize with 2006’s The Departed being the sole victor. Perhaps voters will feel it’s time to honor his work again.
The Case Against Killers of the Flower Moon:
The precursors certainly haven’t treated this as any sort of career achievement prize. Oppenheimer took the highest honors at Critics Choice and the Globes. Additionally, Moon experienced some loud snubs with Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor and especially Adapted Screenplay.
The Verdict:
Once seen as a serious threat for the gold, Killers might be lucky to win anything. The best chance lies with Gladstone. Everything else is a long shot.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first three pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, and Barbie. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Behind door #4 is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers.
The Case for The Holdovers:
With a 97% rating, it is #1 on the Tomato-meter (just edging the 96% of Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall). The 70s set Christmas dramedy is Payne’s fourth feature to nab a BP nod after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and this might be his most appreciated work yet. It has scored BP nods at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Paul Giamatti is a threat to win Best Actor and Da’Vine Joy Randolph is absolutely the frontrunner in Supporting Actress. The Holdovers may also take Original Screenplay. If it emerges in all 3 of those races, that’s a nice little formula for a BP victory.
The Case Against The Holdovers:
It hasn’t won any of the aforementioned BP derbies (Globes, Critics) and it’s unlikely to take BAFTA. Payne missed the quintet in Director. In the 21st century, only 3 movies (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have been named BP without their maker being nominated. And then there’s the fact that Oppenheimer is simply a heavy favorite.
The Verdict:
An argument can be made that The Holdovers is #2 in the BP sweepstakes. However, Payne’s omission in Director sticks out and topping Oppenheimer is a potentially insurmountable challenge.
My Case Of posts will continue with Killers of the Flower Moon…
Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded spy comedy Argylle will end the Mean Girls three-week reign atop the charts as February kicks off at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
After a dreadful end to January where filmgoers were especially preoccupied with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Brock Purdy, Lions, and Ravens, a low 20s start for Argylle should inject at least some life into multiplexes.
The runner-up spot could be another newcomer. Christian series The Chosen is debuting the first three episodes of its fourth season beginning on Thursday. I didn’t do an individual write-up for it, but the Friday to Sunday portion should get to mid or even high single digits. That would likely give it the 2 slot.
Holdovers will populate the rest of the top five. I’m assuming The Beekeeper and Wonka will have smaller declines than current champ Mean Girls. If my estimates pan out, that could mean a 1st to 5th place drop for said Girls.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
2. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (January 26-28)
As mentioned, it was a tepid end to January as studios sat the weekend out. In fact, it was the weakest frame in nearly two years. The top five features did all manage to slightly exceed my projections.
Mean Girls took in $6.9 million for subdued bragging rights over my $6 million call. The three-week tally is $60 million as it hopes to match the $86 million earned by the original 20 years ago (not adjusted for inflation).
The Beekeeper nearly grabbed the top spot at $6.6 million, dipping a mere 22% in its third outing. I went lower at $5.1 million. Its better than anticipated gross is $41 million.
Wonka was third with $5.6 million, in range with my $5.3 million call. The seven-week take for the largest holiday hit is $194 million. It should hit $200 million later this week.
Migration was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $4.5 million) as it crossed the century mark after six weeks with $101 million.
Anyone but You rounded out the top five as it continued its impressive run at $4.6 million (I forecasted $4.2 million). The rom com is up to $71 million since its Christmas bow.
Writer/director Sean Wang is having a nice week. His live-action short film Nai Nai & Wai Po made the contending five in that category during Tuesday morning’s Oscar nominations. Three days later, his feature-length dramedy Dìdi won the U.S. Dramatic Audience Award at Sundance, in addition to the Ensemble prize. The coming-of-age tale stars Izaac Wang, Shirley Chen, Chang Li Hua, and Joan Chen.
With a 91% RT rating, reviews indicate this is a crowdpleaser with a memorable performance from young Wang. Don’t be surprised if a Critics Choice nom for Young Actor/Actress comes his way. The eventual distributor will need to mount a great campaign for this to generate Academy attention. It’s possible, but the critical reaction indicates it isn’t automatic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Director Susanna Fogel and star Emilia Jones of CODA fame teamed up last year at Sundance with the thriller Cat Person. Any Oscar buzz petered out upon its unveiling with an eventual 46% RT rating and very limited theatrical release. They are back at Sundance ’24 with Winner, a black comedy costarring Kathryn Newton, Connie Britton, Zach Galifianakis, and Danny Ramirez.
Winner refers to Reality Winner, Jones’s real-life character who became known for leaking intelligence about Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential election. Like Cat, the premiere of this title came and went without much fanfare. The RT score is 60% and there’s no indication that this will be in the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall and you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third contestant for BP glory is a little picture called Barbie. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Let’s get into it.
The Case for Barbie:
If Oscar voters go with the most popular and seen choice, Greta Gerwig’s fantasy dramedy based on the Mattel doll is your selection. The pic became 2023’s largest earner last summer to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion worldwide and $636 million domestically. It landed BP nods at key precursors including SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. In addition to BP, there are seven other nods: Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, and 2 possibilities in Original Song (“I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For?”), making it the fourth most nominated feature behind Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon.
The Case Against Barbie:
Despite the 8 total nominations, there were significant snubs (in case you haven’t read the news this week). Greta Gerwig did not make the quintet in Director and Margot Robbie (despite making all the major precursors) missed in Actress. It is rare (only thrice this century) for a BP recipient to have its filmmaker not even nominated. Barbie didn’t turn up in the final five at BAFTA.
The Verdict:
One could argue that the widely publicized news of Gerwig and Robbie’s exclusions could cause Academy voters to honor it here. I wouldn’t bank on it. Barbie is unlikely to go home empty-handed (victories in Production Design and Original Song are probably happening and Costume Design and Adapted Screenplay are doable). As for BP, Barbie‘s roadblock is the movie it will forever be linked with: Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. They opened the same day, crushed the box office charts together, and coined the Barbenheimer phenomenon. It is Oppenheimer way out in front in the big race.
My Case Of posts will continue with The Holdovers…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicked it off and now we arrive at Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall. If you missed my facts and opinions about Fiction, you can find it here:
The awards buzz for the French legal drama began when it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last summer and it never let up. Fall ended up nabbing 5 overall Academy noms – the others being Triet in Director, Sandra Hüller in Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing. In addition to the Cannes love, it took the foreign feature prize at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Anatomy of a Fall:
Due to a French blunder, it did not receive six nominations. That’s because the nation submitted The Taste of Things as their entry for International Feature Film. Oscar voters didn’t put Taste in their contending quintet. Had they gone with Anatomy, it would be the frontrunner or at worst co-frontrunner for that race over The Zone of Interest. That unforced error caused many to wonder whether this would even make the top ten in BP. Another obvious reason against: Parasite is the sole international title to take BP.
The Verdict:
Anatomy has a shot at Original Screenplay (it impressively took Screenplay at the Globes). As covered, it had a terrific shot at being the IFF recipient. It will not win Best Picture.
Gaucho is the seventh studio offering by the great Steely Dan (it’s got “Hey Nineteen” on it)! Gaucho Gaucho, on the other hand, is Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2021 documentary The Truffle Hunters. Focused on the title character community of Argentine cowboys, it has been unveiled at Sundance.
With an 86% RT score, the lions share of the praise is going to the B & W cinematography. Truffle, which received stronger reviews, didn’t make the Academy’s cut in Doc Feature. I’m skeptical this will be able to rustle up a nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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