Continuing on with my first round of Oscar predictions, day two brings us to Best Supporting Actor. In both 2014 and 2015, my late August/early September initial picks yielded two out the eventual five nominees. Last year, these first picks correctly identified winner Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.
There are plenty of contenders to list at this early stage. One of the big question marks in plenty of categories is Martin Scorsese’s Silence, a passion project and historical drama that has yet to release a trailer or announce when it’s coming out. It is assumed that it’ll be out in time for Oscar consideration. If so, Liam Neeson is likely to be a contender in this race (and maybe costar Adam Driver).
As mentioned yesterday with Kristen Stewart in Supporting Actress, Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk appears to be a potential major awards player and the beloved Steve Martin could reap the benefits with his first ever acting nod. Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund are also possibilities.
Michael Shannon could be under consideration for two high-profile fall entries – Jeff Nichols’ Loving or Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.
Barry Jenkins’ indie African-American romantic drama Moonlight is getting attention (I predicted Naomie Harris yesterday for Supporting Actress recognition) and Mahershala Ali (known to many as Remy Danton on Netflix’s “House of Cards”) could find himself in the mix.
Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is also expected to garner Oscar talk (it’ll screen for critics on the festival circuit in days) and it could feature a breakout role for singer John Legend.
And there’s many more possibilities, including Warren Beatty’s return to the silver screen in Rules Don’t Apply. There’s John Goodman’s already acclaimed work in 10 Cloverfield Lane (though the genre could make him a long shot). Or maybe a first nomination for Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins. And there’s two movies that Aaron Eckhart could find himself being considered for.
As always, the list will be updated in the weeks and months ahead, but for now…
TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
John Legend, La La Land
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Liam Neeson, Silence
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Kyle Chandler, Manchester by the Sea
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
Robert De Niro, Hands of Stone
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Adam Driver, Silence
Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Brendan Gleeson, Live by Night
John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Oscar Isaac, The Promise
Nick Offerman, The Founder
Edgar Ramirez, Gold
Michael Shannon, Loving
J.K. Simmons, La La Land
Timothy Spall, Denial
Chris Tucker, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
And there you have it! Best Actress tomorrow…