Kelly Reichardt is an acclaimed indie filmmaker behind the recent Certain Women and First Cow. Her latest, which premiered at Cannes, is Showing Up and it casts Michelle Williams as a sculptor in the family drama. Costars include Hong Chau, Judd Hirsch, John Magaro, Andre Benjamin, and James Le Gros.
Reviews say this is a lighter take on Reichardt’s material and the 100% Rotten Tomatoes indicates a winner. In what is becoming a common refrain in these posts, the distributor is A24. It will be a juggling act when it comes to their Oscar campaigns (Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Whale, and Aftersun are just three of their hopefuls).
Williams is drawing early raves. She’s seeking her fifth nomination after two lead nods for 2010’s Blue Valentine and 2011’s My Week with Marilyn and two supporting mentions for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain and 2016’s Manchester by the Sea. While she could draw attention here, there’s also Steven Spielberg’s upcoming The Fabelmans where she could make an appearance in supporting.
It’s important to remember that First Cow starting garnering some awards chatter that ended up petering out. That could happen here but the strong Cannes start helps its case. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
***And a final update for Top Gun: Maverick as my prediction rises again to $113.4 million for the three-day and $138 million for the four-day. That it gives it the #2 all-time Memorial Day for both frames.
***Blogger’s Note: Another day, another significant update raising my Top Gun: Maverick prediction. Now at $103.7M for the three-day and $124.4M for the four-day.
**Blogger’s Note (05/24): My Top Gun: Maverick prediction has risen from a $75.6M and $98.8M three and four-day start to $86.6M and $104.9M
Tom Cruise is poised to land his largest debut of all time over this Memorial Day weekend with the long in development sequel Top Gun: Maverick as the animated The Bob’s Burgers Movie is also served up. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the pair here:
Arriving 36 years after the first entry made Cruise a superstar, Maverick is generating terrific buzz. For the three-day portion of the holiday frame, it needs to surpass the $64 million earned by 2005’s War of the Worlds in order to set a personal best start. I have it achieving that feat with over $10 million to spare with a gross just shy of $100 million for the Friday to Monday haul.
As for Burgers, it could find itself locked in a race with Downton Abbey: A New Era for third.
After a three-week reign atop the charts, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will drop to second with The Bad Guys likely rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see for the four-day frame and I’m throwing in the three-day projections for the newbies:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $138 million (Friday to Monday); **$113.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million
3. The Bob’s Burgers Movie
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (Friday to Monday); **$9.2 million (Friday to Sunday)
4. Downton Abbey: A New Era
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
Box Office Results (May 20-22)
The good doctor held off competition for the third week as Multiverse took in $32.3 million, ahead of my $27.8 million projection. The MCU juggernaut is up to $342 million thus far.
Downton Abbey: A New Era settled for second with $16 million, a bit shy of my $18.4 million take. That’s on the lower end of expectations and significantly under the $31 million that its 2019 predecessor earned out of the gate.
The Bad Guys was third with $6.1 million, in range with my $5.7 million prediction for $74 million overall.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 took fourth with $4 million (I said $3.5 million) to bring its impressive tally to $181 million.
Alex Garland’s Men failed to attract an audience with $3.2 million for fifth. I was a little more generous at $4.1 million. Despite some decent reviews, the Cinemascore grade was a putrid D+.
Everything Everywhere All at Once was sixth with $3.1 million compared to my $2.7 million guesstimate. With $52 million in the bank, it is now A24’s highest domestic earner.
**Blogger’s Update (05/18): It appears as if Alex Garland’s Men will premiere wide on approximately 2500 screens. Due to that, my $4.1 million puts it in fourth place and that change is reflected below. For my detailed prediction post, click here:
Unless it seriously over performs, the sequel should place second to another one – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in its third outing (more on its sophomore frame below). I’m figuring Madness should dip in the mid 50s with Abbey posting a high teens gross.
The rest of the top five should consist of holdovers The Bad Guys, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, and Everything Everywhere All at Once with the bomb Firestarter falling out after its tepid start.
Here’s how I see it looking:
1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. Downton Abbey: A New Era
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
3. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
4. Men
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
Box Office Results (May 13-15)
The MCU kept rolling as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness took in $61.7 million to bring its total to $292 million. In 10 days, it has easily surpassed the $232 million earned domestically by its 2016 predecessor. That said, it fell below my $66.8 million projection and its 67% decline is hefty one for the studio. All in all – Marvel is still minting $$$.
The Bad Guys held the two spot with $7 million, right in line with my $7.1 million estimate for a four-week take of $66 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was third with $4.6 million, on pace with my $4.3 million prediction as it now stands at $175 million.
The aforementioned Firestarter (which was also available on Peacock), a remake of a 1984 pic based on a Stephen King novel, failed to generate any heat. Its fourth place haul was a measly $3.8 million. I was more generous at $6.5 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once rounded out the top five with $3.3 million (I said $3.1 million) as the future Oscar contender has amassed $47 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore was sixth with $2.5 million (I went with $2.7 million) for $90 million as it’s struggling to reach nine digits.
My second round of Oscar predictions in the six biggest races are before you. When I update them next, we’ll be in the midst of the Cannes Film Festival where some of these hopefuls are screening.
As for category placement changes, I’ve moved Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon to Supporting Actor from lead. It remains to be seen which contest he’s placed in. If it is supporting, we shall see if it’s him or Robert De Niro that gets the buzz. I’m betting on the latter at press time.
Let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. She Said (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (E)
17. Tar (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Till (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Armageddon Time (PR: 25) (+6)
20. Elvis (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Woman King (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-6)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-2)
11. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (E)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
Blogger’s Update (05/12): Revising Firestarter down to $6.5 million
A different caped crusader set the 2022 opening weekend record with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness dominating the charts. It will reign supreme in its sophomore frame as only the Stephen King adapted horror reboot Firestarter debuts this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I’m giving Firestarter (also available via Peacock) the benefit of the doubt by putting it in double digits considering its genre often over performs. That should easily give it the #2 slot behind MCU’s mystical doc.
Look for The Bad Guys and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 to slide a spot to 3rd and 4th. The five spot could be close between Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The real question is how far Multiverse drops in its sophomore outing. The Strange sequel received mixed critical reaction that has carried over a bit with audiences. The B+ Cinemascore grade is among the lowest of the franchise. Only Eternals (B) was below it while 2011’s original Thor also received the B+ designation. Due to that factor, I could foresee a low to potentially high 60s range fall.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Predicted Gross: $66.8 million
2. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
3. Firestarter
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
Box Office Results (May 6-8)
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had the #11 largest domestic debut in history, positioning itself between fellow Disney sequels Avengers: Age of Ultron and Incredibles 2. Coming on the heels of Spider-Man: No Way Home, the MCU property amassed $187.4 million. While that didn’t get into top 10 all-time territory like I projected at $208.5 million, it’s still a marvelous haul (especially considering the 2016 original began with $85 million). For the reasons stated above, I do expect a larger than normal MCU decline in the mid 60s.
The Bad Guys, after two weeks in first, was second with $9.5 million. That’s in line with my $10 million estimate as the DreamWorks title has taken in $57 million thus far.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was third with $6 million, a bit under my expected $7.1 million. Overall gross is a sturdy $169 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore continued its underwhelming run with $4.2 million. I was on target as I said $4.3 million. Total is $86 million as it’s hoping to at least eek out $100 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once rounded out the top five with $3.5 million. I projected a little higher with $4.4 million, but its pleasing tally is up to $41 million.
The summer box office season officially kicks off in the manner it has many times lately… with an expected Marvel Cinematic Universe juggernaut. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness looks to accomplish some records after previous franchise entry Spider-Man: No Way Home set plenty of its own. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Benedict Cumberbatch’s return as the mystical doc here:
My estimate would give Multiverse the 7th largest domestic premiere of all time and the highest ever for the month of May (topping The Avengers). It would be #4 in terms of MCU entries – behind Avengers: Endgame, No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War.
No other film is daring to open against this and family friendly entries The Bad Guys (after two weeks on top) and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 should slide a spot. Everything Everywhere All at Once is holding extremely well from week to week and it could rise to fourth over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore.
Here’s how I think the top 5 will look:
1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Predicted Gross: $208.5 million
2. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $10 million
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)
Before Marvel begins its domination, it was a pretty quiet weekend with The Bad Guys repeating in first. The DreamWorks Animation effort made $16.2 million, topping my $14.4 million projection for $44 million in 10 days.
Most holdovers managed to slightly exceed my expectations. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 stayed in second at $11.5 million compared to my $10.8 million call. Total is $161 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore continued its ho-hum run in third with $8.3 million, just above my $7.7 million take. The three-week tally is a disappointing $79 million.
The Northman was fourth in its sophomore outing with $6.3 million. I went with $5.6 million and it’s at $22 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once actually had a 2% increase with $5.5 million to round out the top five (I said $4.2 million). The A24 Oscar hopeful has made an impressive $35 million.
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent was sixth with $3.8 million (I predicted $3.5 million) for $13 million in two weeks.
Finally, Liam Neeson’s streak of low grosses stayed intact as Memory opened in 8th with $3.1 million. That’s in line with his recent (non) earners and just below my $3.3 million projection.
Welcome to the first ranked Oscar predictions of the 2022 season for the 95th Academy Awards! I’ll be doing these every few days (once a week or every two weeks) for the high-profile races of Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. In the fall (maybe earlier), this will expand to all categories covering feature lengths films.
For BP, I will list 25 possibilities with 15 hopefuls in the others. Some quick caveats that always apply – titles of the pictures will change. Just this week, David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass became Amsterdam and Avatar 2 is now Avatar: The Way of Water.
Actors listed in lead will become supporting players and vice versa. Some movies will be pushed to 2023. And, of course, titles listed on the first day of May will become commercial and critical disappointments and drop off the list. Some pics and performances I’m not even considering at the moment will rise during festivals like Cannes, Toronto, Telluride, and Venice.
So let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Son
5. Women Talking
6. She Said
7. Bardo
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. The Whale
10. Rustin
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam
12. White Noise
13. Poor Things
14. Tar
15. Till
16. Empire of Light
17. Avatar: The Way of Water
18. Don’t Worry Darling
19. Next Goal Wins
20. Thirteen Lives
21. The Banshees of Inisherin
22. Elvis
23. The Woman King
24. Three Thousand Years of Longing
25. Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Florian Zeller, The Son
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
9. Maria Schrader, She Said
10. George C. Wolfe, Rustin
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise
14. David O. Russell, Amsterdam
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon
2. Regina King, Shirley
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Carey Mulligan, She Said
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things
10. Laura Dern, The Son
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King
12. Greta Gerwig, White Noise
13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Before Doctor Strange and his Marvel friends dominate the box office next weekend, it should be an unmemorable one as April closes out. The only new release is Liam Neeson’s action thriller Memory and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My meager $3.3 million estimate for Memory (in line with recent Neeson pics) could leave it outside the top five with the family friendly holdovers maintaining the 1-2-3 positions.
The Bad Guys got off to a terrific start (more on that below) and it should easily maintain first position with a drop potentially in the 45-50% range. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore should follow and the 4-5 spots may again be held by The Northman and The Incredible Weight of Massive Talent. Depending on how far Talent falls, it may find itself in a battle for 5th with Memory. However, we also have Everything Everywhere All at Once and it could nab the 5 spot with another meager decline.
And with that, ny take on the weekend’s top 7:
1. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
4. The Northman
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
6. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
7. Memory
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (April 22-24)
DreamWorks Animation had an even bigger than anticipated hit on their hands as The Bad Guys did good business at $23.9 million, easily surpassing my $16.7 million projection. As mentioned, it should have little trouble stealing a second weekend at #1 before the Doctor arrives in May.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 held in second with $15.6 million, right in line with my $15.5 million call. The blockbuster sequel has amassed $146 million in its three weeks of release.
The news got worse for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. It fell from first to third with a steep 67% sophomore drop at $14 million. I was a tad higher at $15.1 million. In what should be the franchise’s last installment (it’s hard to justify fourth and fifth chapters as originally planned), the two-week tally is a mere $67 million. Reaching $100 million domestically is a stretch.
The Viking action drama The Northman slightly exceeded most prognosticators with $12.2 million in fourth. The Robert Eggers directed tale sailed ahead of my $10.3 million prediction. Problem is – its budget is reportedly a massive $90 million.
Nicolas Cage’s meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent opened in fifth with a muted $7.1 million, not quite matching my $7.9 million estimate. Despite glowing reviews, it couldn’t quite branch out beyond cinephiles who attended.
It’s likely to be a top heavy family friendly box office chart this weekend as DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys makes a play for the #1 spot. The well-reviewed action comedy could find itself in a battle with the second weekend of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (after a lackluster start) and the third frame of Sonic the Hedgehog 2. The adults have fresh product to choose from as well. There’s the Viking epic The Northman from director Robert Eggers and Nicolas Cage headlining the meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. My detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies can be accessed here:
Considering Beasts easily had a Wizarding World franchise low opening (more on that below), even a mid teens start for The Bad Guys could mean it’ll manage to nab first place. If Sonic fell nearly 60% in its sophomore frame, I’m saying Beasts plummets in the mid 60s and it could be a close contest for second between the two holdovers.
The Northman and Talent should hold the four and spots and maybe not in that order. That’s how I have it, however, with Northman just surpassing double digits and Talent falling just under. Both features have solid critical support and could overperform, but I’m being cautious with each.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $15.1 million
4. The Northman
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (April 15-17)
It was an Easter to forget for Warner Bros as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore remained a secret to many. The third entry in the series took in a lowly $42.1 million, below my $48.1 million projection. That’s about $20 million under 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald and it genuinely brings into question whether the studio will move forward with planned fourth and fifth installments.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 dropped to second with $29.3 million and a larger than anticipated 59% drop. I was more generous at $35.8 million. The video game based sequel is up to a nevertheless impressive $118 million after 10 days.
The Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum rom com The Lost City was third with $6.2 million, on target with my $6.3 million take. Total is $78 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once increased its screen count by nearly 1000 venues and boasted a 2% increase in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $5.5 million). The potential awards contender has made $17 million.
Mark Wahlberg’s faith-based and fact based drama Father Stu opened in fifth with a muted $5.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $7.7 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s on pace with my respective takes of $5.7 million and $8.5 million.
Morbius was sixth with $4.7 million, a tad ahead of my $4.3 million prediction for $65 million overall.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s Ambulance continued to stall with $4 million (I went with $4.5 million) for a two-week tally of only $15 million.
My initial early take on the Oscar landscape in the major categories brings us to Best Picture! If you missed my posts covering Director and the four acting races, they’re here:
At this early stage in the proceedings, it’s a whole lotta guesswork going on. Some of these titles could end up getting pushed back to 2023. There’s no doubt some of these will fail to garner the critical raves they require to contend.
Yet we have to start somewhere so here’s the first look at my 10 projected BP nominees and 15 other possibilities!
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