Mountain climbing romance Everest: The Other Side played the trio of fall fests (Venice, Telluride, Toronto) prior to its release this weekend. The documentary comes from Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin in conjunction with National Geographic. It arrives eight years after the filmmakers won Documentary Feature at the Oscars for Free Solo. Their non-documentary debut, 2023’s Nyad, scored acting nods for Annette Bening and Jodie Foster.
Everest’s reviews don’t match Solo‘s with a still solid 86% Rotten Tomatoes rating and less enthusiastic 66 on Metacritic. With more acclaimed docs in the marketplace, this faces an uphill climb for Academy voter attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards were unveiled this morning with some surprises and other categories generally going as planned. As expected and as I projected, One Battle After Another (the unquestionable Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture) led the nominations count with 9 followed by Sentimental Value with 8, Sinners with 7, and Hamnet with 6. All of those pics have likely punched their Academy BP ticket.
While it was a good day for them, you can’t say the same for Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, and some others. Overall I went 78 for 92 in my predictions (about par for the course). Let’s walk through each category with the nominees and how I did with some quick commentary.
Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
The expected six with an international flavor as three of the nominees are surefire hopefuls for Best International Feature at the Oscars (Accident, Agent, Value). The winner, however, should come down to Hamnet or Sinners.
Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another
How I Did: 3/6
First things first – Battle is likely going to emerge victorious. As far as the contenders, Jay Kelly missing was a legit shocker and the same could be said for Wicked: For Good. I had them in along with The Testament of Ann Lee instead of Choice and the one-two directorial combo of Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague from Richard Linklater.
Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 5/6
Mr. del Toro makes the sextet instead of Josh Safdie, whose Marty Supreme had a less than anticipated showing with 3 nods. Anderson is the favorite though I wouldn’t discount Coogler or Panahi.
Actress – Drama
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
How I Did: 5/6
Victor is in over my somewhat upset pick of Jodie Foster in A Private Life. This is one of the easiest to predict with Buckley.
Actor – Drama
Nominees: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Not as easy to predict as Actress (Drama) with the Oscar heavy hitters in Actor slotted in Musical or Comedy. This could be a close one between Jordan and Moura.
Actress – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
The expected six, but this is a tough one to call. Precursors may help with my eventual prediction though I’d say everyone but Hudson at least has a chance here. Byrne is perhaps the soft frontrunner.
Actor – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
My alternate Byung-hun over Brendan Fraser (Rental Family). Like the Oscars, this could be a supreme battle between Chalamet and DiCaprio with Hawke as potential spoiler.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 5/6
Blunt is one of the genuine shockers as she’s in instead of Supreme‘s Gwyneth Paltrow. This is a tricky category to pinpoint and we’re going to need precursors to help sort it out.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
This seems like a race where Value could pick up a trophy with Skarsgård, but both Battle actors are viable.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Another competition where Value is possible though Battle and Sinners might have the edge in that order. I wouldn’t rule out Accident either.
Motion Picture – Non-English Language
Nominees: It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirât, The Voice of Hind Rajab
How I Did: 5/6
Rajab gets the call over Sound of Falling as Value could have the best shot, but Accident is a real threat as is Agent.
Motion Picture – Animated
Nominees: Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 5/6
Demon Slayer instead of Ne Zha 2 (which I also incorrectly predicted for Critics Choice). The voters could go with phenom KPop though Rain and Zootopia are in the hunt.
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 7/8
This silly little three-year-old category is something the Globes should jettison. After all, Avatar hasn’t even opened and it’s being nominated for its box office achievement? Perhaps Sinners, a truly unanticipated smash hit, takes this. I had Superman up instead of Reckoning.
Original Score
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât
How I Did: 4/6
F1 (which also got a CCA mention) and Sirât contend over my picks of Bugonia and Marty Supreme. I think Sinners is out front with OBAA threatening.
Original Song
Nominees: “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 4/6
Well, at least Wicked got two songs nominated, eh? “No Place Like Home” and “Train Dreams” are balloted instead of “Drive” from F1 and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners. “Golden” could be just that on Globes night.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, adds up to these movies generating numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Sinners
6 Nominations
Hamnet
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Bugonia, KPop Demon Hunters, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, Jay Kelly, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Train Dreams, Weapons, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
After the Hunt, Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Sorry, Baby, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab
I”ll have predictions up for the show shortly before the January 11th telecast and keep an eye on the blog for updated Oscar projections!
Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).
In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.
Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Testament of Ann Lee
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Jodie Foster, A Private Life
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Best Film Screenplay
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Non-English Language Film
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirât
Sound of Falling
Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Animated Feature
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Ne Zha 2
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Scarlet
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
“Drive” from F1
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
KPop Demon Hunters
Sinners
Superman
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Zootopia 2
Alternate – AMinecraft Movie
That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value, Sinners
6 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Jodie Foster, A Private Life
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?
Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.
Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.
The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.
Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.
While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.
And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.
All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.
Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.
Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.
Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.
When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.
Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.
There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.
Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.
My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!
Sometimes my Oscar Predictions write-ups are actually Golden Globe Predictions and that would apply to Freakier Friday. Out Friday, this is the sequel to the 2003’s Freaky Friday which itself was a remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy that was actually based on a 1972 book. Got all that? Nisha Ganatra directs with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan back headlining. Costars include Mark Harmon, Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, Manny Jacinto, Chad Michael Murray, and Rosalind Chao.
No, Freakier Friday won’t contend for the Academy’s attention. However, the Friday features have a history with the Globes. In Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, both Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris were nominated for the ’76 version (they lost to Barbra Streisand for A Star Is Born). Bonus fun fact: Harris was a double nominee in that category as she was also up for Alfred Hitchcock’s final film Family Plot. In 2003, Jamie Lee Curtis was a hopeful in the same race for the remake and fell short to Diane Keaton for Something’s Gotta Give.
Early reviews for Freakier are pretty decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. That’s lower than Curtis/Lohan’s tale from 22 years ago. If competition is light, it’s not impossible that Curtis could find herself in the Globes mix again. Her chances are certainly less than they were in the earlier part of the century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving 22 years after the critically acclaimed remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy with Jodie Foster is Freakier Friday on August 8th. Nisha Ganatra takes over the directorial reins from Mark Waters with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan returning to headline. Other returnees from 2003 include Mark Harmon, Chad Michael Murray, Rosalind Chao, and Ryan Malgarini plus newbies Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, and Manny Jacinto joining.
With the source material originating from a 1972 kids novel, Curtis/Lohan’s take received stronger reviews than the original cinematic version. Curtis was even nominated for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. The box office was equally impressive with a $22 million premiere and $110 million overall domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that debut would be close to $40 million today.
Freakier has a number of pluses going for it. There’s a nostalgia factor, the narrative of a Lohan comeback, and a dearth of female driven material this summer. Then there’s the Mouse House marketing. All of that combined could get this mean low 30s and maybe even higher.
Freakier Friday opening weekend prediction: $32.5 million
While the picture itself is drawing more assorted reactions (80% currently on RT), Cannes viewers are praising Jodie Foster’s lead work in A Private Life. She plays an emotionally challenged psychiatrist investigating a crime in the dramedy from Rebecca Zlotowski. Costars include Daniel Auteuil, Virginie Efira, and Mathieu Amalric. Sony Pictures Classics holds the stateside distribution rights with a release date TBD.
Foster is no stranger to awards love with five Oscar noms including lead Actress victories for 1988’s The Accused and 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs. Her last nod came just two years ago in supporting for Nyad. I don’t see the legendary performer grabbing her sixth for this.
The Golden Globes could be a different story. If Sony campaigns for Foster in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy), she could be in line for her 8th GG try when counting her TV work. That particular branch loves her as she’s taken home 4 trophies from the group formerly known as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar (and Globe) prediction posts will continue…
In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.
My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)
18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)
20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)
21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)
22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)
24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)
13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, Vie privée
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Nia Long, Michael
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)
A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.
Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).
Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.
You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).
This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.
With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Sinners
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. Hamnet
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Life of Chuck
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another
12. Frankenstein
13. Bugonia
14. Deliver Me from Nowhere
15. The Smashing Machine
16. No Other Choice
17. The Ballad of a Small Player
18. Michael
19. Die, My Love
20. Highest 2 Lowest
21. Kiss of the Spider Woman
22. F1
23. Is This Thing On?
24. Ann Lee
25. Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere
14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead
15. Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player
10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
12. Emily Watson, Hamnet
13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
14. Nia Long, Michael
15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.
This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
