Tag: Jessica Lange

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 27th Edition

We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.

The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.

Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.

The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.

You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)

12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Michael

Ink

Club Kid

You Can See Everything

The Social Reckoning

Werwulf

Being Heumann

Primetime

Josephine

Sense and Sensibility

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

Curry Barker, Obsession

Danny Boyle, Ink

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Seth Rogen, The Invite

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Eva Victor, Behemoth!

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

John Goodman, Digger

Skyler Gisondo, Primetime

Riz Ahmed, Digger

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Silent Friend

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All of a Sudden

Fjord

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

You Can See Everything

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Horse Nine

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)

4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

10 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite

5 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

Oscar Predictions: Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Based on the Eugene O’Neill play that debuted 70 years ago, Long Day’s Journey Into Night has faced its own long journey to awards consideration. Directed by Jonathan Kent, the family drama has hit screens in limited fashion after filming four years ago. Jessica Lange, Ed Harris, Ben Foster, and Colin Morgan star.

After debuting at the Dublin Film Festival a year and a half ago, Quiver Distribution has at last put it out for stateside viewing. A search of their library for awards contenders will not be a fruitful exercise. A two-time Oscar winner, Lange has been in and out of my possibilities for Day since 2023. The few reviews that are out indicate her performance is terrific and she hasn’t been nominated by the Academy since her lead Actress victory for 1994’s Blue Sky.

If another distributor were handling the campaign, I think Lange (and probably only Lange) would be in the conversation. I’m just not sold that Night is getting enough exposure for voters to notice it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.

So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).

In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.

In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.

John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.

The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.

You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)

13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)

16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)

18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)

19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)

23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)

24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Disclosure Day

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)

14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lance Oppenheim, Primetime

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Ink

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Ink

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Mimesis

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hexed

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)

4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)

8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The History of Concrete

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Invite

Elsinore

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Is God Is

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wildwood

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Whalefall

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

The Debut

6 Nominations

The Invite, Wild Horse Nine

5 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession

2 Nominations

Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?

Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.

Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.

The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.

Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.

While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.

And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.

All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.

Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.

Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.

Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.

When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.

Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.

There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.

Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.

My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 24th Edition

We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.

Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.

On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.

Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:

  • The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
  • Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
  • The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
  • Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.

You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)

22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)

24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

F1

The Life of Chuck

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)

14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)

13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)

7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)

10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All That’s Left of You

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Come See Me in the Good Light

Architection

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wolf Man

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)

9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

TBD from Zootopia 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mickey 17

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

3 Nominations

Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.

Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)

23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)

24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)

13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ella McKay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)

3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timestamp

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Frankenstein

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Mother Mary

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family

3 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

There are changes to discuss:

  1. In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
  2. In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
  3. In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
  4. A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Alabama Solution

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mother Mary

“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein

6 Nominations

After the Hunt

5 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.

In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.

Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)

23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)

12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)

15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)

12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)

5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Six Billion Dollar Man

The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)

9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)

8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sinners

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

14 Nomnations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

After the Hunt, Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Bugonia

5 Nominations

Hamnet

4 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominatons

Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. After the Hunt

3. Jay Kelly

4. Sinners

5. Marty Supreme

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident

7. Sorry, Baby

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. The Secret Agent

10. Ann Lee

11. Rental Family

12. Ella McCay

13. Is This Thing On?

14. Nouvelle Vague

15. A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hamnet

2. Bugonia

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. One Battle After Another

5. No Other Choice

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein

7. Wicked: For Good

8. The Life of Chuck

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Train Dreams

11. Die, My Love

12. Late Fame

13. Highest 2 Lowest

14. Hedda

15. The Smashing Machine

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. The Secret Agent

4. No Other Choice

5. The President’s Cake

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirát

7. Sound of Falling

8. Left-Handed Girl

9. Nouvelle Vague

10. The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2

2. Arco

3. Elio

4. Scarlet

5. In Your Dreams

Other Possibilities:

6. Animal Farm

7. A Magnificent Life

8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

9. KPop Demon Hunters

10. Ne Zha 2

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Seeds

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Cutting Through Rocks

5. Deaf President Now!

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

10. The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. After the Hunt

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Sentimental Value

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly

7. Marty Supreme

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Frankenstein

3. Bugonia

4. Marty Supreme

5. The Rivals of Amziah King

Other Possibilities:

6. F1

7. Sentimental Value

8. Nouvelle Vague

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

10. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

5. Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Lee

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8. Mother Mary

9. Snow White

10. One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Bugonia

5. F1

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt

7. Wicked: For Good

8. One Battle After Another

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later

7. Bugonia

8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Wolf Man

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Bugonia

3. After the Hunt

4. Frankenstein

5. Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another

7. F1

8. Sentimental Value

9. The Rivals of Amziah King

10. Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5. TBD from Zootopia 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

10. TBD from Mother Mary

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia

7. One Battle After Another

8. Marty Supreme

9. The Phoenician Scheme

10. Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Warfare

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

9. Frankenstein

10. Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Superman

4. Frankenstein

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

7. F1

8. How to Train Your Dragon

9. Tron: Ares

10. Sinners

Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

After the Hunt

7 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

6 Nominatons

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominatons

F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 22nd Edition

As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.

While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.

I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.

The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)

17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)

24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sound of Falling

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)

Best Actress

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)

11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)

14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another