Best Picture 2018: The Final Five


We have reached 2018 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-17, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

2018 is a tricky year to winnow down. In fact, all 8 nominees have strong cases to make the final five. Only one thing is for sure. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book is one of the five considering it won Best Picture. It stands as one of the more surprising (and derided) victors in recent years. The race relations drama went an impressive 3/5 on its nominations – taking Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay and missing Actor (Viggo Mortensen) and Film Editing.

So what of the other seven hopefuls? Here’s my speculation:

Black Panther

The only MCU flick (and for that matter comic book adaptation) to score a BP nom was Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon with Chadwick Boseman as the title character. Its seven nominations included three wins for Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Besides BP, the other six mentions were all technical. It missed directing, any acting inclusions, screenplay, and even editing. It’s hard to leave this out though that’s the case with everything here.

BlacKkKlansman

Spike Lee received his first and only Oscar for his adapted screenplay. That’s the only victory of the night among its six total nods as Lee did make the quintet for direction. The others were Supporting Actor (Adam Driver), Score, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Had this not taken Adapted Screenplay, I’d leave this off. Yet that win has me (somewhat reluctantly) leaving it in.

Bohemian Rhapsody

Rami Malek was crowned Best Actor for his performance as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury in the biopic. Despite mixed reviews, Rhapsody was successful in four of its five noms. Picture is the only race it didn’t win as it took Actor, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. That 80% ratio solidifies it even without attention for the direction or screenplay.

The Favourite

The period piece from Yorgos Lanthimos tied all nominees with 10. The lone victory was an unexpected one as Olivia Colman took Best Actress over the favored Glenn Close (The Wife).

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Despite the 10% ratio, it still led all contenders with key placements in Director, two Supporting Actress bids (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), Original Screenplay, and Editing.

Roma

Alfonso Cuaron was your Best Director in the Mexican drama that was the other picture with 10 nods. It also won Foreign Language Film and Cinematography while contending in Actress (Yalitza Aparicio), Supporting Actress (Marina de Tavira), Original Screenplay, both Sound competitions, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and easily. The Netflix property was supposed to be the streamer’s first BP (they’re still waiting) and was favored before that Book upset.

A Star Is Born

Bradley Cooper’s version of the frequently remade melodrama achieved 8 nominations and one win for the director’s duet with costar Lady Gaga “Shallow” in Original Song. Both Cooper and Gaga were up for their acting as was Sam Elliot in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but another tough call. Star‘s shine with voters seemed to dim as the season wore on. This is evidenced by it missing directing and editing.

Vice

This is a good time to point out that all 8 BP hopefuls won at least one statue. Adam McKay’s biopic of former Vice President Cheney (played by Christian Bale) took home the Makeup and Hairstyling award. Other noms were for the direction, Bale, Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell), Supporting Actress (Amy Adams), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No and I really struggled here. Vice landed mentions everywhere it needed to. The so-so critical reaction made it a tad easier to leave it out. Simply put, this could’ve been in over BlacKkKlansman or Bohemian, but I had to make the judgment call.

So that means my 2018 final five is:

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

I’ll have my post for 2019 up soon! The 2009-17 write-ups are here:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Review

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever does a commendable job in its treatment of Chadwick Boseman’s 2020 passing. What remains in the sequel feels bloated (161 minutes) and is a significant decline from its 2018 predecessor. The MCU in 2022 has been in a relative rut (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse and Thor: Love and Thunder) and Forever extends that.

I will start by accentuating the aforementioned positive. Director and co-writer Ryan Coogler and his team were obviously faced with a sad and unenviable task of handling the title character’s real life death. King T’Challa’s absence is addressed immediately. The departure is the emotional ripple that causes genuine waves of emotion in the beginning and especially the end.

However, we are left to wonder if the filmmakers would’ve been better off recasting the role. Boseman’s presence and the idea of having a central protagonist is missed in the follow-up. The narrative of Wakanda often feels pulled into too many directions. I found myself wishing to untangle it and cut loose ends.

The plot comes into focus one year after T’Challah’s funeral. Sister Shuri (Letitia Wright) is haunted that her tech skills couldn’t save her sibling. Queen Ramonda (Angela Bassett) rules the country with an iron fist. Other nations, including the United States, are jealous of their vibranium hoarding ways. It turns out the precious metal is also present under the surface in the underwater land of Talokan. Their ruler is Namor (Tenoch Huerta) and his legion of Avatar looking subjects are grappling with how to handle their valuable commodity. Namor decides that Wakanda either needs to join him in declaring war on the rest of the world (who want that sweet vibranium) or become a nemesis of the subsurface society.

Namor, as written, is a fairly decent antagonist. Like Michael B. Jordan’s Killmonger in the original, his motives to be “the bad guy” are rather understandable. The Marvel Cinematic Universe has had plenty of forgettable villains. Namor isn’t one, but Huerta also isn’t much of a threatening presence. This is especially true when comparing Namor to Killmonger as there is no comparison.

My biggest gripe is the one item that also hindered the third act of 2018’s adventure. The action sequences are frequently handled in clumsy fashion. They are too dimly lit or the CG happenings are confusing.

There are some welcome returns with Winston Duke as the warrior M’Baku and Danai Gurira as Okoye, leader of Wakanda’s all female fighting force. Lupita Nyong’o is back as Nakia, T’Challah’s love interest. She is summoned back to her native land by Ramonda and Bassett is given a couple of potent monologues as the mourning Queen.

Then there’s Martin Freeman back on duty as CIA agent Everett Ross. This time around, he’s teamed with his boss and ex-wife Val (Julia Louis-Dreyfus) as they are at odds in their views on how to deal with Wakanda. The screenwriters should have dealt them off the page. They could have been eliminated altogether and the only difference would be a thankfully shorter runtime.

For all the working in water happening during Wakanda Forever, the real waterworks occur as Mr. Boseman is honored and those are powerful moments. Too much of the rest doesn’t work at all.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hopes to land the biggest opening of 2022 when it debuts this weekend. Disney would also love to see the MCU sequel to 2018’s cultural phenomenon achieve the awards love that its predecessor got. It’s not out of the question that it could.

The review embargo is up today and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is an impressive 90% (under part 1’s 96%). Critics are praising the film’s treatment of the loss of its star Chadwick Boseman in 2020. There is some griping about it being overlong. Few reviews are saying it surpasses the original in terms of quality.

The first Panther was nominated for 7 Academy Awards including Best Picture. Still the only superhero pic to make the BP cut, it took 3 of 7 (Score, Production Design, Costume Design). The other nods were Original Song (“All the Stars” from Kendrick Lamar) and Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (these categories have since been combined).

All 3 races where it won four years ago could pop up this time around. Production Design and Costume Design seem like givens. Sound appears a fairly safe bet. Same with Original Song as Rihanna’s closing credits ballad “Lift Me Up” is a threat to win. Ironically, Mr. Lamar lost in 2018 to Lady Gaga and “Shallow”. Gaga could strike again with “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick.

Panther did miss Visual Effects four years back and there were grumbles about the quality. The general consensus is that Wakanda‘s effects are a step up. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to make the VE quintet. However, I do think it has the best shot of the MCU’s 2022 slate (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder are the others).

As for performances, I could see Angela Bassett nabbing some ink. Ultimately I don’t see a second nom materializing nearly 30 years after her first one for What’s Love Got to Do with It.

Now the major question – can Wakanda Forever get a BP nomination? Short answer is yes. Longer answer is more complicated. With Maverick, there’s already one sequel that looks pretty safe. We still have Avatar: The Way of Water and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery waiting in the wings. I think it’s logical to say we won’t see four sequels in BP. Three seems like a stretch. While I wouldn’t discount Wakanda in the big race, I believe the more feasible scenario is tech nods and possibly 5 to even 7 of them. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/09): I am revising my estimate down from $205.2M to $195.2M. As opposed to the narrative below, that would now give it the #9 opening of all time behind its 2018 predecessor.

On November 11th, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever looks to score the second largest opening of the young decade and add another MCU pic to the top 10 debuts of all time. The sequel to 2018’s phenomenon has Ryan Coogler returning to the director’s chair. Early reactions are very positive saying that part 2 pays touching tribute to Chadwick Boseman, who played the title character in the original and passed away in 2020. Letitia Wright, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Winston Duke, Dominique Thorne, Tenoch Huerta, Martin Freeman, and Angela Bassett are among the large cast.

Wakanda is not expected to approach the $260 million that Spider-Man: No Way Home made out of the gate last December. It should, however, get beyond the $191 million that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earned in May. If it does, it would land the #2 opening of the decade and the pandemic era.

In February of 2018, Black Panther rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $202 million start over the Friday to Sunday portion of President’s Day weekend. For the four-day frame, it topped out at $242 million before eventually grossing $700 million domestically. The three-day premiere still stands at #8 all-time while the overall haul is 6th.

I do believe that all the Wakanda stars are lining up for a Friday to Sunday take that surpasses the original by a small margin. My estimate would give the new Panther the #8 opening while moving its predecessor down to ninth. Time will tell if it eventually approaches the $700 million that the first part amassed.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opening weekend prediction: $195.2 million

Oscar Watch: Just Mercy

Just Mercy has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival ahead of its stateside Christmas release. Early reviews indicate the true life courtroom drama is a crowd pleasing tearjerker that has the potential for acting nominations and maybe more.

Michael B. Jordan plays a lawyer attempting to free Jamie Foxx’s wrongfully imprisoned murder convict. Brie Larson costars in this effort from Destin Daniel Cretton, who’s worked with the actress twice before in Short Term 12 and The Glass Castle.

Yet it’s Jordan and Foxx getting the bulk of attention. Despite acclaimed work in Fruitvale Station, Creed, and Black Panther (all from Ryan Coogler), Jordan hasn’t scored an Oscar nod. The lead actor race is looking crowded, but he could have a shot. Foxx might have a better chance in supporting. It’s been 15 years since he’s been in the awards mix. In 2004, he won Best Actor in Ray and nabbed a Supporting Actor nod simultaneously for Collateral. This could be the type of comeback role the Academy notices.

If Mercy manages to score with audiences (which it most certainly could do), recognition in  Best Picture or for its Adapted Screenplay may factor in as well. Bottom line: this pic increased its visibility playing in our neighbor to the north. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 17th Edition

It’s been two weeks since I’ve made Oscar predictions and it’s fair to say a lot has happened since then. The show never did find a host, but a host of significant precursors happened. There were the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The Directors Guild named their five nominees and they typically nail four of the five eventual nominees in that race. The last 14 days of action have changed my #1 rankings in some very big categories:

  • After consistently being ranked at #1, A Star Is Born now falls to second behind Roma.
  • Keeping with the theme, Christian Bale’s work in Vice vaults to first in Actor ahead of Bradley Cooper in Star.
  • Once again, a Star dips from the top spot as Glenn Close (The Wife) is first in Actress above Lady Gaga.
  • After Globe and Critics victories, SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse is #1 in Animated Feature instead of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.

You can can read all the rankings below and on Sunday, I will reveal my final picks for nominees ahead of Tuesday morning’s announcements!

Best Picture

1. Roma (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Green Book (PR: 4)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Black Panther (PR: 6)

6. The Favourite (PR: 3)

7. Vice (PR: 8)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. First Man (PR: 9)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)

12. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

13. First Reformed (PR: 15)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Eighth Grade

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

7. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Best Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 10)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

10. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: 10)

9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

7. Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 9)

10. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Hate U Give

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. First Reformed (PR: 4)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Cold War (PR: 10)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

10. Private Life (PR: 8)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 4)

5. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Capernaum (PR: 5)

7. The Guilty (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse (PR: 2)

2. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 8)

8. The Grinch (PR: 7)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 10)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. RBG (PR: 6)

4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 4)

5. Shirkers (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Minding the Gap (PR: 3)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

8. On Her Shoulders (PR: 10)

9. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 4)

7. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Cold War (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. The Rider (PR: 9)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Roma (PR: 5)

4. First Man (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

5. Border (PR: 3)

6. Suspiria (PR: 7)

7. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: ImpossibleFallout (PR: 6)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 8)

8. Mission: ImpossibleFallout (PR: 7)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Black Panther (PR: 3)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 1)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)

8. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 7)

10. AntMan and the Wasp (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Vice (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Ready Player One

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

5. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. “OYAHYTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)

And that equates to the following movies getting these numbers when it comes to nominations:

10 Nominations

A Star Is Born, The Favourite

9 Nominations

Black Panther, First Man, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice

3 Nominations

Bohemian Rhapsody, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

Cold War, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Burning, Crazy Rich Asians, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Never Look Away, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

The DGA Puts Oscars in Sharper Focus

The Director’s Guild of America is a reliable guide as to who the Academy may nominate come Oscar time. The consistency in the DGA selections has been remarkable over the last five years. In that time, the DGA’s picks match the Academy’s selections at a ratio of 4/5 every single year. And their picks definitely mean a whole lot as to whether the filmmaker’s movie will get a Best Picture nod.

Today the DGA unveiled their five directors nominated and they are:

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Let’s begin with the Best Picture race. Looking over the films made by each director that’s been nominated for the past five years, all 20 of them went on to receive a Best Picture nod. Bottom line: all five of the movies listed above appear to be locks in the 5-10 pictures that will be honored.

In my view – Cooper, Cuaron, and Lee are virtual certainties for inclusion in the Academy’s directing race. When I made my latest round of weekly Oscar predictions last Thursday, I did not have Farrelly or McKay in. Instead, I went with Ryan Coogler for Black Panther and Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite. 

That forecast runs contrary to the 4/5 ratio that we’ve witnessed for the last half decade. That means adjustments might be made in my next estimates this Thursday. I’m starting to think Farrelly may have a better shot at this juncture than McKay. Of Lanthimos and Cooper being the odd DGA man out who gets in the Oscar pool, that’s an awfully close call and I’ll probably debate that until post time.

The DGA, if history proves true, provided us with five movies that are in the Oscar race. As for the final five for Director, that’s in question. However, it’s probably wise to think four of them get in.

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 3rd Edition

We are now 19 days away from Oscar nominations as the major precursors are set to air in short order. It begins with the Golden Globes on Sunday (look for my winner predictions for that ceremony on the blog tomorrow). My updated rankings this week reflect the following changes:

  • Emily Blunt’s starring role in Mary Poppins Returns is back in my predicted top five, ousting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma
  • In Documentary Feature, RBG falls out of my nominees for the first time and makes way for Shirkers
  • In Editing, it’s Black Panther in for BlacKkKlansman. This contributes to my tally of Panther getting the most nominations of any picture for the first time (over A Star Is Born)
  • In Makeup and Hairstyling, Border crosses the top 3 with Mary Queen of Scots on the outside looking in

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)

13. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

14. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

15. First Reformed (PR: 15)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

10. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Widows

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 7)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 10)

10. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 9)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

10. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Guilty (PR: 6)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 4)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)

10. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. Minding the Gap (PR: 4)

4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

5. Shirkers (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. RBG (PR: 5)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 6)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)

10. On Her Shoulders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dark Money 

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Black Panther (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

8. Widows (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cold War (PR: 6)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

9. The Rider (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

9. Colette (PR: 10)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (PR: 2)

2. Black Panther (PR: 1)

3. Border (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

7. Suspiria (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

5. Roma (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 7)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 5)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 10)

8. Roma (PR: 6)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 4)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 8)

8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 7)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

10. Vice (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 10)

9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

And that breaks down to these movies getting the following number of nods:

12 Nominations

Black Panther

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Roma

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 27th Edition

It’s my final Oscar predictions of 2018 as the nominations draw closer (with the Golden Globes airing next Sunday)! And, yes, we’re seeing some changes:

  • First Man is back in my predicted nine with Mary Poppins Returns out. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to rise and is inching closer to possible inclusion.
  • In Best Director, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) is in with Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) out.
  • In Best Actress, Yalitza Aparicio returns to my top 5 with Emily Blunt’s title role in Mary Poppins Returns falling.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 5)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

13. A Quiet Place (PR: 14)

14. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

15. First Reformed (PR: 15)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 9)

8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

9. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 10)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

7. First Man (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Widows (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

5. First Reformed (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Private Life (PR: 8)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Sorry to Bother You

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 5)

5. Capernaum (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Guilty (PR: 8)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

4. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 8)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

4. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

5. RBG (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

7. Shirkers (PR: 8)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 10)

10. Dark Money (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Green Book (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

10. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cold War (PR: 5)

7. Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 5)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)

7. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Vice (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Border (PR: 5)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

7. Suspiria (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Roma (PR: 4)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

7. Ready Player One (PR: 5)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 8)

10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 4)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 2)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)

8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 9)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 7)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 6)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet 

And that adds up to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born, Black Panther

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man, Roma

6 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018: The Year of Ryan Coogler

To kick off my series on the people that made significant contributions in cinema for 2018, the first post is the easiest to choose from. In a year filled with many successful tales, Black Panther is undoubtedly THE story. The Marvel Cinematic Universe saga took a superhero not nearly as known as others and the result was a surprising and smashing record breaker.

The man behind it is Ryan Coogler. A 32-year-old Oakland native, Coogler made his directorial debut with 2013’s acclaimed Fruitvale Station. Two years later, he invigorated another franchise with Creed. And in February of this year, Panther was unleashed worldwide. With Chadwick Boseman in the title role, Michael B. Jordan as one of the MCU’s most memorable villains, and Lupita Nyong’o and Letitia Wright providing dynamic support, the film immediately struck a chord with moviegoers and critics. With a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score, Panther took in $700 million domestically at the box office.

Let us count the records, shall we? That’s the top hit of the year. It’s the third biggest domestic grosser of all time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. Obviously, that designation means it’s Marvel’s #1 earner. One year ago, if anyone had told you this would make more than Avengers: Infinity War (which followed a few weeks later), you wouldn’t have believed it.

For Coogler, he’s made the biggest comic book adaptation ever in a century filled with them. The sky is the limit for him as he’s likely being offered every tent pole project in sight. He’s already struck a deal to direct the Panther sequel. Additionally, this stands an excellent chance to be the first pic of its genre to receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars.

In 2018, Coogler made history by making the #1 picture ever directed by an African-American and introduced a hero already beloved by all. He’s an unquestionable entry in the people that mattered onscreen this year.