My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!
Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.
In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).
Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.
In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.
All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.
You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. A Star Is Born
3. Beautiful Boy
4. Roma
5. First Man
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Boy Erased
8. Backseat
9. Peterloo
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Queen of Scots
11. Widows
12. Black Panther
13. The Favourite
14. The Front Runner
15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
17. Crazy Rich Asians
18. Old Man & The Gun
19. Bohemian Rhapsody
20. Destroyer
21. Green Book
22. Mary Poppins Returns
23. At Eternity’s Gate
24. On the Basis of Sex
25. Ben Is Back
Best Director
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Other Possibilities:
6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
7. Adam McKay, Backseat
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
12. Steve McQueen, Widows
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
2. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man
5. Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Backseat
7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
10. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
11. Rory Kinnear, Peterloo
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
13. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Viola Davis, Widows
4. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
5. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary
8. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
9. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
11. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
12. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
13. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
14. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
15. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat
4. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
5. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
7. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
9.. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
10. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
11. Jason Clarke, First Man
12. Sebastian Stan, Destroyer
13. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
14. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots
15. Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman
Best Supporting Actress
1. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Claire Foy, First Man
4. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
5. Amy Adams, Backseat
Other Possibilities:
6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy
7. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy
8. Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun
9. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns
10. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
13. Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer
14. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience
15. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Beautiful Boy
3. Boy Erased
4. A Star Is Born
5. BlacKkKlansman
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man
7. Mary Queen of Scots
8. The Front Runner
9. Crazy Rich Asians
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
11. Old Man & The Gun
12. Widows
13. Disobedience
14. Wildlife
15. The Sisters Brothers
Best Original Screenplay
1. Roma
2. Peterloo
3. Backseat
4. Eighth Grade
5. The Favourite
Other Possibilities:
6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
7. Destroyer
8. Ben Is Back
9. On the Basis of Sex
10. At Eternity’s Gate
11. Green Book
12. Colette
13. A Quiet Place
14. Bohemian Rhapsody
15. Sorry to Bother You