The Critics Choice Is Roma

The Critics Choice Awards aired last night and the ceremony has been a harbinger at times for the Oscar race ahead. Notably the show in 2017 ended up matching the Academy’s winners in all major races. So what message did reviewers send yesterday? Well some of it was mixed and some of it solidified certain selections in their positions come gold statue time.

It was a very good evening for Roma. The Mexican drama won Best Picture and its filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron won for his direction and cinematography. In those latter two races, Cuaron is the strong favorite to take the Oscar. Picture is still not assured as it faces competition from A Star Is Born and maybe BlacKkKlansman (which did go home empty-handed yesterday). I’ve had Star placed at #1 consistently in my Oscar rankings. Don’t be surprised if Roma grabs that slot this week when I update my predictions.

Christian Bale was victorious in Actor for Vice. Coupled with his Golden Globe win the week prior, it could give him a slight edge over Bradley Cooper in Star and Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. Yet it’s competitive.

So is Best Actress and last night proved it. There was the rare tie and it was between Lady Gaga in Star and Glenn Close as The Wife. I’d say it’s a coin flip between them at the Oscars and I wouldn’t totally count out Olivia Colman in The Favourite.

The supporting winners matched the Golden Globes with Mahershala Ali (Green Book) and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk). Even though King was surprisingly not nominated at the upcoming SAG Awards, both actors look like front-runners in their respective categories.

Beale Street also took Adapted Screenplay, giving it a boost in that race over the slightly more favored BlacKkKlansman. In Original Screenplay, Paul Schrader notched a big win for First Reformed. I’m feeling more confident it makes the final five for the Academy.

The Critics Choice voters also chose SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse over Pixar’s Incredibles 2 in Animated Film like the Globes did. That’s more fuel to the fire that Spidey could get that Oscar win and give Pixar a rare loss in that race.

Finally, Black Panther had a solid showing – winning Visual Effects, Production Design, and Costume  Design. First Man took Editing while Vice was honored for its Makeup.

I’ll have my updates Oscar predictions up later this week with final estimates up on Sunday prior to Tuesday’s announcement. Stay tuned!

Will A Star Still Shine at the Oscars?

One week ago, we had a Golden Globes surprise when A Star Is Born had an unexpectedly bad night. The Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody was a hit with the Hollywood Foreign Press and that was much to the detriment of Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut. Rhapsody took Best Picture (Drama) and Rami Malek won Actor in the drama category over Cooper. Furthermore, it was Glenn Close winning Actress for The Wife over Lady Gaga. The only race Star won was Best Original Song for the Cooper/Gaga duet “Shallow”.

The next question is obvious: do the Globe snubs hurt Oscar chances? The quick answer: perhaps not. It’s worth noting that in this decade, the Best Picture Drama recipient from the Globes has matched the Best Picture Academy winner three out of eight times (Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Moonlight).

I have had Star ranked as my #1 choice in my weekly forecasts for Oscar nominees since I started doing it in late August. It’s never changed. That said, it’s always been a soft front-runner. I do not think Bohemian will win the Oscar for Best Picture. It’s only in recent days that I’ve come to believe it’ll definitely be nominated.

The brightest challenger, in my view, is Roma. Alfonso Cuaron won the Globe for his direction over Cooper. I believe he is looking solid for the Oscar victory. One thing to keep an eye on this evening is the Critics Choice Awards. They matched the Oscar in every major category last year. If Star has another sub par evening there, look for even more chatter about its prospects dimming.

For the moment, the Globes could prove to be an anomaly for the film’s possibilities with the Academy. However, it’s well worth monitoring how these other precursors play out.

 

The DGA Puts Oscars in Sharper Focus

The Director’s Guild of America is a reliable guide as to who the Academy may nominate come Oscar time. The consistency in the DGA selections has been remarkable over the last five years. In that time, the DGA’s picks match the Academy’s selections at a ratio of 4/5 every single year. And their picks definitely mean a whole lot as to whether the filmmaker’s movie will get a Best Picture nod.

Today the DGA unveiled their five directors nominated and they are:

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Let’s begin with the Best Picture race. Looking over the films made by each director that’s been nominated for the past five years, all 20 of them went on to receive a Best Picture nod. Bottom line: all five of the movies listed above appear to be locks in the 5-10 pictures that will be honored.

In my view – Cooper, Cuaron, and Lee are virtual certainties for inclusion in the Academy’s directing race. When I made my latest round of weekly Oscar predictions last Thursday, I did not have Farrelly or McKay in. Instead, I went with Ryan Coogler for Black Panther and Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite. 

That forecast runs contrary to the 4/5 ratio that we’ve witnessed for the last half decade. That means adjustments might be made in my next estimates this Thursday. I’m starting to think Farrelly may have a better shot at this juncture than McKay. Of Lanthimos and Cooper being the odd DGA man out who gets in the Oscar pool, that’s an awfully close call and I’ll probably debate that until post time.

The DGA, if history proves true, provided us with five movies that are in the Oscar race. As for the final five for Director, that’s in question. However, it’s probably wise to think four of them get in.

2018 Golden Globes Reaction

Wow. Well, the Golden Globes were going according to script for the vast majority of its running time… until the last 20 minutes or so. It was a huge night for both Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book, with the former’s final win being quite the shocker.

The Queen biopic won in an upset for Best Film (Drama) over the heavily favored A Star Is Born. Less surprising was its star Rami Malek’s Best Actor (Drama) victory, though I picked Bradley Cooper.

In the other upset, Glenn Close took Best Actress (Drama) for The Wife over Lady Gaga in Star. While the Cooper/Gaga musical drama predictably won Best Song for “Shallow”, that was the only statue for it. That’s surprising.

All in all, I went 10/14 on my picks. I was chugging right along until the Close, Malek, and Bohemian victories.

The other race I missed was Green Book taking Screenplay over The Favourite. The race relations pic also won for Best Film (Musical/Comedy) and Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali.

As for the other categories I correctly called:

Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Actor (Musical/Comedy): Christian Bale, Vice (it’s only win despite a leading six nods)

Actress (Musical/Comedy: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Foreign Language Film: Roma

Animated Film: SpiderMan: Into the SpiderVerse

Score: First Man

So… what does this mean for the Oscars? It could mean a lot. I have felt that A Star Is Born and Cooper and Gaga were the soft favorites. That could still be true. I’m still a bit skeptical Malek wins the Oscar, but Bale is a different story. Bottom line: Best Actor is a competitive three-way race.

So is Best Actress. Close’s win could mean the Academy’s race will end up closer than anticipated. And Colman is a factor, too.

Ali and King helped solidify their status as supporting front-runners. So did Cuaron in the directing race.

To Best Picture… I believe the unexpected Star loss could ironically boost its Oscar chances for the big prize. Perhaps the Academy voters will feel they wish to go a different way. As for Rhapsody, I had yet to predict it would even get a nomination. You can definitely expect that to change come Thursday in my weekly predictions. I feel the biggest Star competition is Roma rather than Green Book at the moment.

So that’s my first blush reaction on a night when Bohemian was a champion. And finally – I want to hang out with Carol Burnett. That’s all for now, folks!

The Rider Takes The Film Critics Cup

The National Society of Film Critics bestowed their best of 2018 awards today and it showcases another victory for Chloe Zhao’s western drama The Rider. The indie pic already won Best Picture at the Gotham Awards over some higher profile competition. With two top prize victories, is there any chance The Rider could gallop into Oscar contention?

That seems doubtful, but you never know. This particular critics branch has previously honored movies that the Academy ignored. Recent examples include 2013’s Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers and 2014’s Goodbye to Language from legendary French filmmaker Jean-Luc Godard. It is worth noting that the winners in 2015 and 2016 (Spotlight, Moonlight) won the Oscar and last year’s Lady Bird was nominated.

In the Director race, it was another trophy for Alfonso Cuaron’s work in Roma. He already has achieved status as the Academy favorite. He also won for his cinematography.

Ethan Hawke received yet another critics prize here for Actor in First Reformed, as did Olivia Colman in Actress for The Favourite. The latter’s Oscar chances seem assured while Hawke is more of a mystery (I’ve got him in currently). Regina King’s SAG snub is seeming less and less important as she got another honor in Supporting Actress for If Beale Street Could Talk. And Steven Yeun added to his reviewer group awards here with his Supporting Actor role in Burning. He’s racked several up, but still appears to be a long shot for Academy inclusion. Same goes for Screenplay as the Society went with The Death of Stalin. I’ve yet to include it in my Adapted Screenplay projections. It’s possible, but it probably won’t get in.

So while it was another good day for The Rider, I’m still skeptical that will equate to Oscar attention.

 

2018 Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The highest profile Oscar precursor airs this Sunday with Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh sharing hosting duties. That means it’s time to roll out my predictions on who and what will win in the film categories. Truth be told, some of these races are fairly easy to pick. Others… not so much. Let’s break each category down with my final picks on the victors.

Best Drama

The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born

It was an interesting decision for Warner Bros. to place Star here instead of in Musical/Comedy. Even with that, I believe anything else winning would be an upset (BlacKkKlansman may have the best remote shot). Star is looked at as a soft front-runner at the big show down the line. I feel a win here will help solidify that.

Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born

Best Musical/Comedy

The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice

Unlike Drama, this race is considerably tougher to project. Vice received the most nominations of any picture and that could mean something. However, critical reaction has been more mixed than originally anticipated. Mary Poppins Returns now seems to be a legitimate question mark as to Oscar inclusion for Picture and the competition is steep. The reward for Crazy Rich Asians is its nomination.

So, for me, this comes down to Green Book and The Favourite and it’s seriously a coin flip. I am giving a tiny edge to Green Book since it received a directing nomination, unlike The Favourite. 

Predicted Winner: Green Book

Best Director

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)

A win for Cooper or Lee is not out of the question, but Cuaron is the odds on favorite (as he is for the Academy). Roma was not eligible for inclusion in Drama since it’s a foreign pic. It will (spoiler alert for below!) be honored there and here.

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

Best Actor (Drama)

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

The Best Actor drama race comes down to two performers who used their musical skills to dramatic effect: Cooper and Malek. I would not at all be surprised to see Malek’s Freddie Mercury pick up the trophy, but I’ll say the Star love extends here.

Predicted Winner: Cooper

Best Actress (Drama)

The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)

Not long ago, the Globes bestowed Lady Gaga with an unexpected win for her TV work in “American Horror Story”. If they did that, I’ll say they honor her here for her breakthrough film role. Close is the only actress that provides potential competition.

Predicted Winner: Gaga

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

If the Hollywood Foreign Press goes crazy for Green Book, Mortensen could be a benefactor. Yet I suspect this is the most obvious category to give Vice a win for Bale’s acclaimed performance.

Predicted Winner: Bale

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), Charlize Theron (Tully), Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

This is Blunt v. Colman. With Poppins not quite getting all the box office/critics love that was expected, I lean Colman.

Predicted Winner: Colman

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

The HFPA has had shockers in this race… Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals being a recent example. This is a tricky one. Other than Rockwell, I could see any name being called. I’m tempted to pick Grant, but I’ll go with Ali for a more safe choice (especially since it was Taylor-Johnson that unexpectedly beat him in 2016 for his Oscar-winning part in Moonlight).

Predicted Winner: Ali

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

These are the five women I currently have down for Oscar nods. I suspect The Favourite ladies will cancel themselves out. Foy would be an upset. Could the several Vice nods mean Adams is a factor? It certainly could, but I believe King’s performance in Beale (not withstanding her SAG snub) will emerge.

Predicted Winner: King

Best Screenplay

The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice

Unlike the Oscar, the Globes do not divide this race between adapted and original screenplays. A Roma or Book win is feasible, but I’ll say The Favourite is the choice in this case.

Predicted Winner: The Favourite

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters

As already discussed, this is going to be Roma. Not much left to say.

Predicted Winner: Roma

Best Animated Feature Film

The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

It’s generally not wise to bet against Pixar and Incredibles 2 stands an excellent shot. I’m thinking the Globes may go against the grain though as Spidey is peaking at the right time with its very recent raves.

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Original Score

The Nominees: Black Panther, First Man, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place

Once again, I’m tempted to go with Disney and their iconic nanny as this is the only musical on here. However, I’ll say Justin Hurwitz’s acclaimed score for First Man lands the win.

Predicted Winner: First Man

Best Original Song

The Nominees: “All the Stars” from Black Panther, “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin, “Requiem for a Private War” from A Private War, “Revelation” from Boy Erased, “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

It was unexpected that Poppins made no showing here (part of the reason I’m picking against it in Score). Regardless, there is an extremely obvious front-runner here and it’s Cooper and Gaga’s duet.

Predicted Winner: “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

My projections give Star a bright evening with four victories, with The Favourite, Green Book, and Roma all picking up two. I’ll have analysis up shortly after the ceremony as to how I did. Stay tuned!

 

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 3rd Edition

We are now 19 days away from Oscar nominations as the major precursors are set to air in short order. It begins with the Golden Globes on Sunday (look for my winner predictions for that ceremony on the blog tomorrow). My updated rankings this week reflect the following changes:

  • Emily Blunt’s starring role in Mary Poppins Returns is back in my predicted top five, ousting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma
  • In Documentary Feature, RBG falls out of my nominees for the first time and makes way for Shirkers
  • In Editing, it’s Black Panther in for BlacKkKlansman. This contributes to my tally of Panther getting the most nominations of any picture for the first time (over A Star Is Born)
  • In Makeup and Hairstyling, Border crosses the top 3 with Mary Queen of Scots on the outside looking in

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)

13. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

14. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

15. First Reformed (PR: 15)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

10. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Widows

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 7)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 10)

10. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 9)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

10. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Guilty (PR: 6)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 4)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)

10. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. Minding the Gap (PR: 4)

4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

5. Shirkers (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. RBG (PR: 5)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 6)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)

10. On Her Shoulders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dark Money 

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Black Panther (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

8. Widows (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cold War (PR: 6)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

9. The Rider (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

9. Colette (PR: 10)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (PR: 2)

2. Black Panther (PR: 1)

3. Border (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

7. Suspiria (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

5. Roma (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 7)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 5)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 10)

8. Roma (PR: 6)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 4)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 8)

8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 7)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

10. Vice (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 10)

9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

And that breaks down to these movies getting the following number of nods:

12 Nominations

Black Panther

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Roma

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 27th Edition

It’s my final Oscar predictions of 2018 as the nominations draw closer (with the Golden Globes airing next Sunday)! And, yes, we’re seeing some changes:

  • First Man is back in my predicted nine with Mary Poppins Returns out. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to rise and is inching closer to possible inclusion.
  • In Best Director, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) is in with Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) out.
  • In Best Actress, Yalitza Aparicio returns to my top 5 with Emily Blunt’s title role in Mary Poppins Returns falling.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 5)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

13. A Quiet Place (PR: 14)

14. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

15. First Reformed (PR: 15)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 9)

8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

9. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 10)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

7. First Man (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Widows (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

5. First Reformed (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Private Life (PR: 8)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Sorry to Bother You

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 5)

5. Capernaum (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Guilty (PR: 8)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

4. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 8)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

4. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

5. RBG (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

7. Shirkers (PR: 8)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 10)

10. Dark Money (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Green Book (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

10. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cold War (PR: 5)

7. Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 5)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)

7. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Vice (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Border (PR: 5)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

7. Suspiria (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Roma (PR: 4)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

7. Ready Player One (PR: 5)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 8)

10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 4)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 2)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)

8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 9)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 7)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 6)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet 

And that adds up to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born, Black Panther

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man, Roma

6 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 20th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions are here again and there’s been some developments to discuss:

  • Earlier this week, a number of categories released their shortlists: Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Original Score, Original Song. As you’ll see, those picks reflect the new landscape for those races.
  • I’m going back to picking nine Best Picture selections and that means that First Man is out for the first time.
  • Black Panther is a predicted nominee in Adapted Screenplay, making its inaugural appearance. It replaces Crazy Rich Asians.
  • In Original Screenplay, Eighth Grade is back in over Vice.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Green Book (PR: 4)

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. First Man (PR: 10)

11. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)

14. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

15. First Reformed (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Crazy Rich Asians

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

9. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

10. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparacio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 9)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

10. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Natalie Portman, Vox Lux

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Widows (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. Green Book (PR: 2)

4. First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

10. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Capernaum (PR: 5)

5. Burning (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

8. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ayka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Girl

Border

I Am Not a Witch

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 7)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 9)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 8)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 4)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 3)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 9)

8. Shirkers (PR: 8)

9. Dark Money (PR: 7)

10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Science Fair

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. First Man (PR: 2)

4. The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk 

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Cold War (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Vice

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 8)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Colette (PR: 6)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Vice (PR: 3)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

5. Border (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

7. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Colette

A Star Is Born

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

4. Roma (PR: 5)

5. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 5)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Incredibles 2

Aquaman

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

A Quiet Place

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. BlackKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Incredibles 2

Colette

Suspiria 

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

9. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 8)

10. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex

And that gives these pictures the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

A Star Is Born, The Favourite

9 Nominations

Black Panther

8 Nominations

First Man, Mary Poppins Returns

7 Nominations

Roma

6 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Cold War, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs, Ready Player One, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 14th Edition

A day late, but my weekly Oscar predictions are up for your review! Enjoy…

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

7. Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Vice (PR: 7)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

13. First Reformed (PR: 12)

14. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 10)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

3. Sam Ellliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marina De Tavira, Roma

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. First Man (PR: 5)

8. Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. Widows (PR: 7)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Vice (PR: 4)

5. First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

8. Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Private Life (PR: 7)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ben Is Back

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 6)

5. Capernaum (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

7. Girl (PR: 5)

8. Border (PR: 8)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

7. Early Man (PR: 8)

8. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. RBG (PR: 4)

4. Free Solo (PR: 3)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Shirkers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 8)

10. Science Fair (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Quincy

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Green Book (PR: 9)

7. Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 7)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Vice (PR: 10)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 3)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. Roma (PR: 5)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bohemian Rhapsody 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

3. Vice (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

7. Colette (PR: 6)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Deadpool 2

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 5)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

8. Aquaman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

7. Black Panther (PR: 9)

8. Isle of Dogs (PR: 6)

9. Colette (PR: 7)

10. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

5. “Girl at the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

8. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born 

And that equates to the following films getting these numbers for nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, First Man

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Burning, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, RBG, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’