Tag: Titanic

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sinners

    As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the ninth candidate in BP and that’s Sinners from Ryan Coogler. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value

    The Case for Sinners:

    The 16 (yes, sixteen) nominations for the vampire saga set a record. Even if the Academy had not added the new Casting race, it still would’ve set the all-time high as the previous best was 14 in a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. Besides Picture, it is up for Coogler’s direction and original screenplay, Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku), Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo), Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Sinners has seen BP nods at all important precursors including the Globes, PGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and best ensemble at SAG Actor. At $280 million in domestic earnings, it is easily the largest grosser of the 10 nominees.

    The Case Against Sinners:

    The movie with the most nominations has only taken BP three out of the past 10 shows (2017’s The Shape of Water, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer in 2023). Sinners has yet to have a signature victory as Hamnet took Best Drama at the Globes and One Battle After Another was victorious at Critics Choice. The Academy has shown reluctance to honor horror flicks.

    The Verdict:

    The 16 nominations changed the dynamic from One Battle being seen as the fairly sturdy frontrunner to what’s now considered a legitimate showdown between Warner Bros properties. If Sinners takes this weekend’s DGA for its maker Coogler, look for this to become the favorite. If it doesn’t achieve that prize, it could still be honored with ensemble as SAG Actor and its momentum could result in Oscar glory. With all that said, Battle is still a strong competitor that may not be denied.

    My Case Of posts will wrap up the BP hopefuls with Train Dreams…

    98th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

    After months of forecasting and scores of individual posts on the movies vying for the attention of Oscar voters, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were unveiled this morning. The ceremony airs March 15th with Conan O’Brien returning to host.

    There is an undeniable headline in that Sinners shattered the record for most noms ever with 16. The previous holders of that title were a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land at 14 apiece. Even without a new race (Casting), Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale still would have broken the record. It is a remarkable achievement that could change the narrative in Best Picture (and others).

    A secondary headline? The complete shutout of Wicked: For Good. Its predecessor from just a year ago landed 10 nominations. No one had it goose egging. I had it marked for four mentions and at one time weeks ago, I think I had it landing 10.

    Overall I went 87 out of 110 in my feature-length projections (or 79%). Documentary Feature, as it has before, was the bane of my prognosticating existence while Visual Effects also tripped me up.

    Some quick fun facts: Stellan Skarsgård is (somehow) the first Supporting Actor contender from a foreign film. The BP nod for One Battle After Another gives Leonardo DiCaprio his 12th BP hopeful. That ties with a record with his This Boy’s Life and Killers of the Flower Moon costar Robert De Niro.

    In a second, we’ll walk through each race with some initial thoughts and how I did. First – a reminder that my Case Of posts will be arriving on the blog in short order. As readers may recall, I do individual posts on each Best Picture contender and the 25 hopefuls in Director and the four acting derbies. With each write-up, I give the case for their victory and against it along with a verdict. Those posts will start with the 10 BP nominees and then alternate alphabetically between the directing and acting personnel.

    Best Picture

    Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

    How I Did: 9/10

    F1, my 2nd runner-up, makes the cut over It Was Just an Accident. My Case Of posts will delve deeper, but I do believe Sinners is now a strong possibility to win in a showdown with fellow Warner Bros release One Battle After Another.

    Best Director

    Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

    How I Did: 4/5

    Runner-up Trier is in over Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). Like BP, this should be between PTA (Battle) and Coogler (Sinners). The former probably has an edge even if Sinners manages the BP victory.

    Best Actress

    Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

    How I Did: 4/5

    Hudson lands her second nomination 25 years after her supporting nod for Almost Famous. I went with Chase Infiniti for Battle. Buckley is the frontrunner.

    Best Actor

    Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    The expected quintet materializes with Chalamet hoping the third time is the charm.

    Best Supporting Actress

    Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

    How I Did: 4/5

    Taylor might be the favorite. However, if Sinners takes BP, I wouldn’t sleep on Mosaku. And I’m saying that having not predicted her though she was my runner-up. I had Marty Supreme‘s Odessa A’Zion in her place. There’s Madigan to consider as well as the Sentimental actresses should vote split.

    Best Supporting Actor

    Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

    How I Did: 4/5

    Lindo is in over Paul Mescal as Hamnet had a couple high profile omissions. Penn may be the only one without a convincing win narrative and this could come down to the wire.

    Best Original Screenplay

    Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    Moon, which I didn’t list as either of my runner-ups, is in over The Secret Agent. Value is viable though Sinners is the safer bet.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    The five Adapted works from BP are in. A pretty easy call for Battle.

    Best International Feature Film

    It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

    How I Did: 4/5

    Second runner-up Rajab instead of No Other Choice, which was blanked. This is a fascinating category as Agent vs. Value could be the showdown.

    Best Animated Feature

    Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    This has been the anticipated lineup for several weeks with KPop in the pole position.

    Best Documentary Feature

    The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

    How I Did: 1/5 (ugh)

    The Doc race strikes again and hurts my numbers. I only had Neighbor (the frontrunner… I guess) correctly named as I went with Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and 2000 Meters to Andrivka.

    Best Casting

    Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    Hamnet (my runner-up) instead of Frankenstein. This should also come down to Battle v. Sinners and I’m leaning toward the latter.

    Best Cinematography

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

    How I Did: 4/5

    Marty Supreme (my runner-up) instead of Hamnet (another notable miss). A broken record as this is also between Battle and Sinners.

    Best Costume Design

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    A genuine shocker with Avatar in. Its two predecessors didn’t even make this category. I had Wicked: For Good instead (get used to hearing that). Frankenstein is out front, but a Sinners over performance could happen.

    Best Film Editing

    F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    Value instead of Hamnet. Once again, Battle or Sinners.

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

    How I Did: 4/5

    2nd runner-up Stepsister is in contention over Wicked. Frankenstein shouldn’t have any trouble here.

    Best Original Score

    Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    Bugonia, which I didn’t list in the runners-up, over Sirāt. This is likely to be a Sinners prize.

    Best Original Song

    “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “I Lied to You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

    How I Did: 4/5

    The Verdi! is very much an unexpected inclusion. I had “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. I’ll also note neither shortlisted Wicked track made it. Unless the Academy decides to finally honor Diane Warren in a competitive race or a Sinners sweep happens, KPop should be golden.

    Best Production Design

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    Runner-Up Battle over (you got it) Wicked. Another potential W for Frankenstein.

    Best Sound

    F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

    How I Did: 4/5

    Runner-up Frankenstein instead of Avatar. This could be between F1 and Sinners with Sirāt as an upset possibility.

    Best Visual Effects

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

    How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)

    Like Documentary, the VE voters can be unpredictable and they went with Jurassic (first nod in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost World), Bus, and Sinners (getting that historic 16th mention) over Frankenstein, Superman, and (say it with me!) Wicked. The winner isn’t hard to project as Avatar looks to go 3 for 3.

    Besides the aforementioned Wicked and No Other Choice, two other notable pics that you won’t find among the nominees are Jay Kelly and The Testament of Ann Lee.

    Here is how the nominations did shake out:

    16 Nominations (!)

    Sinners

    13 Nominations

    One Battle After Another

    9 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value

    8 Nominations

    Hamnet

    4 Nominations

    Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

    2 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, Sirāt

    1 Nomination

    The Alabama Solution, Arco, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, The Ugly Stepsister, Viva Verdi!, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Weapons, Zootopia 2

    Keep an eye out for the Case Of posts as we march toward final predictions in March!

    Oscar Predictions: One Battle After Another

    Based on the first trailer five months ago, I didn’t know what to make of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had it parked in 11th (just on the outside looking in) in Best Picture for weeks. A few days ago, early word-of-mouth emerged that it was something special and today’s lapsing of the review embargo accentuates the buzz. Out September 26th, Battle has established itself as a major awards player. Leonardo DiCaprio headlines a cast including Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti in her first big screen role.

    A mix of different genres including action, comedy and thriller fused with political commentary, Battle stands at a noteworthy 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 97 on Metacritic. It is highly possible this will be the best reviewed picture of 2025. When I updated my predictions four days ago, I ranked this 1st in Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Nothing I see today changes that dynamic. Instead it enhances it. This would mark Anderson’s fourth BP nominee with the others being 2007’s There Will Be Blood, 2017’s Phantom Thread and 2021’s Licorice Pizza (he was nominated for his direction with all three as well). Anderson would be up for his sixth screenwriting prize after Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Blood, Inherent Vice and Pizza. He has yet to take home gold and that may be about to change.

    Nominations down the line in Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Original Score (by Jonny Greenwood) and perhaps Sound could be in the mix. Warner Bros is going to have their hands full campaigning for this and Sinners in multiple races against one another. The studio may end up racking up a host of victories between the two.

    Moving to the ensemble, DiCaprio will be vying for his seventh at bat (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). His placement in lead Actor is not guaranteed. Simply put, plenty of voters may take him for granted. He wasn’t nominated for his two titles that won BP (Titanic and The Departed). Nevertheless the film’s momentum may get him in the quintet.

    For months, prognosticators have wondered whether Hall, Taylor or Infiniti will be the smart play in Supporting Actress. Reaction suggests Taylor is the most likely to make the cut, but that Infiniti could do so as well.

    Mr. Penn (a two-time Best Actor recipient for 2003’s Mystic River and 2008’s Milk) looks to nab his inaugural Supporting Actor mention and sixth nom overall. It would be his first since Milk seventeen years ago.

    Bottom line: it could be said that Sinners, Hamnet and Sentimental Value all have win narratives for the biggest prize of all. Now we certainly have Another. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

    We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

    I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

    Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

    Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

    As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

    Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

    9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

    16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

    17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

    18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

    19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

    21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

    22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

    23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

    24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

    25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Smashing Machine

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

    12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

    Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

    10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

    11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

    12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

    15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Akira Emoto, Rental Family

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value

    2. After the Hunt

    3. Jay Kelly

    4. Sinners

    5. Marty Supreme

    Other Possibilities:

    6. It Was Just an Accident

    7. Sorry, Baby

    8. The Rivals of Amziah King

    9. The Secret Agent

    10. Ann Lee

    11. Rental Family

    12. Ella McCay

    13. Is This Thing On?

    14. Nouvelle Vague

    15. A House of Dynamite

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Hamnet

    2. Bugonia

    3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    4. One Battle After Another

    5. No Other Choice

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein

    7. Wicked: For Good

    8. The Life of Chuck

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. Train Dreams

    11. Die, My Love

    12. Late Fame

    13. Highest 2 Lowest

    14. Hedda

    15. The Smashing Machine

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value

    2. It Was Just an Accident

    3. The Secret Agent

    4. No Other Choice

    5. The President’s Cake

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sirát

    7. Sound of Falling

    8. Left-Handed Girl

    9. Nouvelle Vague

    10. The Love That Remains

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zootopia 2

    2. Arco

    3. Elio

    4. Scarlet

    5. In Your Dreams

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Animal Farm

    7. A Magnificent Life

    8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

    9. KPop Demon Hunters

    10. Ne Zha 2

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor

    2. Seeds

    3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

    4. Cutting Through Rocks

    5. Deaf President Now!

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

    7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

    8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

    9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

    10. The Librarians

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. After the Hunt

    3. Wicked: For Good

    4. Sentimental Value

    5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jay Kelly

    7. Marty Supreme

    8. The Rivals of Amziah King

    9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Bugonia

    4. Marty Supreme

    5. The Rivals of Amziah King

    Other Possibilities:

    6. F1

    7. Sentimental Value

    8. Nouvelle Vague

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    10. Wicked: For Good

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Sinners

    4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    5. Hamnet

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ann Lee

    7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    8. Mother Mary

    9. Snow White

    10. One Battle After Another

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Marty Supreme

    3. Sentimental Value

    4. Bugonia

    5. F1

    Other Possibilities:

    6. After the Hunt

    7. Wicked: For Good

    8. One Battle After Another

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. The Rivals of Amziah King

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein

    2. Wicked: For Good

    3. Sinners

    4. The Smashing Machine

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. 28 Years Later

    7. Bugonia

    8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    10. Wolf Man

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners

    2. Bugonia

    3. After the Hunt

    4. Frankenstein

    5. Wicked: For Good

    Other Possibilities:

    6. One Battle After Another

    7. F1

    8. Sentimental Value

    9. The Rivals of Amziah King

    10. Marty Supreme

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    5. TBD from Zootopia 2

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

    7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

    9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

    10. TBD from Mother Mary

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked: For Good

    2. Frankenstein

    3. Sinners

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Bugonia

    7. One Battle After Another

    8. Marty Supreme

    9. The Phoenician Scheme

    10. Ann Lee

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1

    2. Sinners

    3. Wicked: For Good

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    5. Warfare

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

    9. Frankenstein

    10. Superman

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

    2. Wicked: For Good

    3. Superman

    4. Frankenstein

    5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    7. F1

    8. How to Train Your Dragon

    9. Tron: Ares

    10. Sinners

    Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

    14 Nominations

    Sinners

    11 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    9 Nominations

    Sentimental Value

    8 Nominations

    After the Hunt

    7 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

    6 Nominatons

    Bugonia

    4 Nominations

    Hamnet, Jay Kelly

    3 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    2 Nominatons

    F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

    Oscar Predictions: Jurassic World Rebirth

    None of the five follow-ups to Steven Spielberg’s 1993 classic Jurassic Park generated much awards attention. Will that change with the sixth? Jurassic World Rebirth hits theaters on Wednesday with Gareth Edwards handling directorial duties and Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo starring.

    The original over three decades ago won all 3 Oscars it was up for – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing (back when the sound races were separated). 1997 sequel The Lost World: Jurassic Park landed a sole VE nom, but lost to Titanic. The next four entries – Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Jurassic World: Dominion – garnered a total of zero Academy mentions.

    Reviews for Rebirth are mixed to negative. While certainly stronger than Dominion‘s 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 38 Metacritic, the 56% RT and 53 Meta are nothing to roar about. Edwards has seen two pics in his filmography contend in Visual Effects – 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2023’s The Creator. I doubt his first dino adventure will bring the series back into that category for the first time this century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: Sinners (Take II)

    On rare occasions, the need arises to update my Oscar prognosis on a particular picture if warranted. When I penned my post for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners on April 13th, I didn’t discount its awards potential. I wrote of its solid chances in down-the-line competitions including Ludwig Goransson’s lauded score and the sound and production design.

    However, I also wrote this:

    So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead.

    I don’t need to wait until the months ahead to revise my remarks. Sinners has taken the box office by storm in addition to its critical acclaim. When my initial write-up was published nearly three weeks ago, the vampire drama stood at 100% on RT. It barely lost any steam with 98% at press time, a 97% audience score and 84 on Metacritic.

    On the financial front, Coogler’s latest has taken in $123 million domestically after less than two weeks and it should reach $250 million or higher. Sinners has become part of the cultural zeitgeist and that’s a recipe for a strong showing this awards season.

    So what’s the best case scenario for this? The ceiling has undeniably gotten higher. I now believe that Sinners will be nominated for Best Picture with Director and Original Screenplay as major possibilities. In addition to the aforementioned Score, Production Design, and Sound, there are other below the line categories where it could pop up. That includes the new Casting race, Original Song (where the track “I Lied to You” from cast member Miles Caton might stand the best shot), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Regarding that new casting competition, I’m confident this will be in a sturdy position to vie for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards next year.

    I didn’t discuss the actors involved in mid-April because I wasn’t seriously considering their inclusion. That has changed. Michael B. Jordan could factor into the Best Actor race. In Supporting Actress, it could be Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku (with the former probably having an edge to nab her second nod after 2010’s True Grit). For Supporting Actor, there’s Delroy Lindo, Caton, or Jack O’Connell. Some of this may come down to who Warner Bros mounts campaigns for. The narrative for Lindo might be tempting. Five years ago, he probably narrowly missed the cut for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. He’s a well-respected veteran actor who’s never been nominated and the Academy could look to rectify that.

    Back to that best case scenario. If all went perfectly, that would be 16 nominations and the record stands at 14 (shared by Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land). Do I think that’ll happen? No. Would 12 or 13 nods surprise me? No.

    Some prognosticators may think it’s too early to think anything has secured one of the ten BP slots. And there’s always the matter of a horror movie making the cut. Yet Get Out and The Substance brought the genre into the big dance in the past decade. As for the timeline, it was rather clear that Dune: Part Two was going to be a Warner Bros hopeful at this juncture in 2024 and that turned out to be accurate. Another counterargument is that WB will focus on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Time will tell on that one, but there’s no reason the studio can’t have two contenders and I’m skeptical (based on the trailer) that Battle is a surefire play over Sinners.

    Three weeks ago I wasn’t predicting Sinners for BP and beyond “at the moment”. That moment arrived quickly for me to reconsider. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    February 10-12 Box Office Predictions

    Channing Tatum sashays back into multiplexes in his star making role with threequel Magic Mike’s Last Dance while Titanic re-releases on the occasion of its 25th anniversary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

    Magic Mike’s Last Dance Box Office Prediction
    Titanic 25th Anniversary Box Office Prediction

    In what could be considered an upset, I have Titanic edging Mike for the top spot. Here’s why. There are reports that the latter is only releasing on approximately 1500 screens. If that holds true, it would significantly impact its earning power. When I assumed Mr. Tatum would arrive in the typical 3000 venues, I had it making just under $18 million. I now have it notably under that projection.

    That may clear the way for the Titanic re-release to be #1 (giving James Cameron the first place picture in eight out of the past nine weekends). Valentine’s Day audiences and the nostalgia factor could get it there.

    As for holdovers, M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin definitely came in at the lower end of its anticipated range (more on that below). I believe it could plummet from first to fifth with 80 for Brady and Avatar: The Way of Water each slipping only one spot. Cabin might even fall outside of the high five depending on the eighth frame dip for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

    Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

    1. Titanic 25th Anniversary

    Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

    2. Magic Mike’s Last Dance

    Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

    3. 80 for Brady

    Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

    4. Avatar: The Way of Water

    Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

    5. Knock at the Cabin

    Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

    6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

    Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

    Box Office Results (February 3-5)

    As mentioned, Knock at the Cabin had a fairly soft entry on the charts with $14.1 million. While it managed to knock Avatar from its seven-week reign on the throne, it fell far under my $23.6 million forecast. The glass half full? It cost a meager $20 million to make. The glass half empty? With a C Cinemascore grade, I foresee a sophomore plummet close to 60%. In the summer of 2021, Shyamalan’s predecessor Old managed to top Cabin with just under $17 million. Simply put, this should’ve done more considering it had less competition and better reviews.

    80 for Brady had a respectable start in second with $12.7 million. Released a day after Tom Brady announced his retirement (again), the legend packed octogenarian comedy couldn’t match my $15.5 million take. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends ahead.

    Avatar: The Way of Water was third with $11.3 million, in line with my $11.8 million prediction. After its eighth outing, the gargantuan tally grew to $636 million.

    Fourth place belonged to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with $7.8 million (I said $8.9 million) for an impressive $151 million after seven weeks.

    I incorrectly had the concert pic BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas outside of the top five with no projection. It was fifth with $5.1 million.

    A Man Called Otto was sixth with $4.3 million compared to my $4.8 million. The gross is a solid $53 million.

    Finally, while I’m in predictin’ mode – Eagles 38, Chiefs 24. That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

    Titanic 25th Anniversary Box Office Prediction

    On February 10th, we will see if audiences are ready to go back to Titanic. The James Cameron romance pic/disaster flick is being re-released on the occasion of its 25th anniversary. This is just as Avatar: The Way of Water wraps up its seven-week #1 domestic stand with $2 billion+ worldwide run at multiplexes.

    The movie that made Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet icons currently stands as the 8th largest stateside earner in history. At the time of its release, it vaulted to first place. With $659 million overall (and that includes some previous re-releases), it could jump a spot over Avengers: Infinity War ($678 million). Worldwide it is #3 ($2.2 billion) with Water ($2.1 billion) hot on its heels. And, yes, Cameron does now have three of the four all-time global grossers with Avatar ($2.8 billion) atop that chart.

    Speaking of the original Avatar, it was put back in theaters last September a few months before the sequel was unleashed. It made $10.5 million in its first frame of re-issuance. I could see Titanic matching or maybe slightly exceeding that figure.

    Titanic 25th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million

    For my Magic Mike’s Last Dance prediction, click here:

    Magic Mike’s Last Dance Box Office Prediction

    Magic Mike’s Last Dance Box Office Prediction

    **Blogger’s Update (02/03): There are reports that the film is only releasing on around 1500 screens. Therefore I am revising my estimate down significantly from $17.7M to $10.7M. If the theater count changes, I will update accordingly.

    A decade after they turned a meagerly budgeted $7 million dramedy into a $100M+ hit, Magic Mike’s Last Dance is the third iteration (or gyration) of Steven Soderbergh and Channing Tatum’s franchise. The former returns to direct after sitting out 2015’s sequel Magic Mike XXL after helming the 2012 original. The latter is back in the role that turned him into a superstar. His costars from the first two are MIA, but Salma Hayek Pinault, Ayub Khan Din, and Caitlin Gerard join the fun.

    After being absent onscreen for several years, Tatum returned to multiplexes in 2022 with his directorial debut Dog ($61 million domestic gross) and The Lost City alongside Sandra Bullock ($105 million stateside). Last Dance was originally slated for an HBO Max premiere before Warner Bros opted for the theatrical output.

    It’s worth noting that Magic Mike XXL couldn’t match part 1. The 2012 model made $113 million. XXL generated half of that with $66 million. The diminishing returns could continue unless female moviegoers are feeling especially nostalgic. That’s possible, but I’m skeptical. Some of that demographic may opt for the Titanic re-release instead. Low teens is probably the floor and I don’t believe this surpasses $20 million out of the gate.

    Magic Mike’s Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million

    For my Titanic 25th Anniversary prediction, click here:

    Titanic 25th Anniversary Box Office Prediction