Tag: Lily Gladstone

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

    As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

    What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

    For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

    Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

    American Fiction

    Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.

    Barbie

    Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.

    The Holdovers

    Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.

    Maestro

    Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.

    Past Lives

    Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.

    Poor Things

    The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.

    The Zone of Interest

    The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.

    And that means my final 2023 five would be:

    American Fiction

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    The Zone of Interest

    I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!

    Oscar Predictions: The Wedding Banquet

    Rom com remake The Wedding Banquet opens in theaters on Easter weekend from director Andrew Ahn. Arriving 22 years after Ang Lee’s acclaimed pic (which was nominated in the international race at the Oscars), the new version stars Bowen Yang, Lily Gladstone, Kelly Marie Tran, Han Gi-chan, Joan Chen, and Minari Supporting Actress winner Youn Yuh-jung.

    After its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in January, critical reaction was encouraging. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 97% with 72 on Metacritic. I don’t see this as an Academy contender for Bleecker Street (a distributor with a rough record at awards campaigning). Maybe they’ll give it a shot in the Musical/Comedy race at the Golden Globes, but they better up their game. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

    These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

    The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

    Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jon M. Chu, Wicked

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joan Chen, Dídi

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29 –

    4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

    8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

    10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

    8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Anora

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

    Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    8 Nominations

    Conclave

    7 Nominations

    Wicked

    5 Nominations

    Anora, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys

    2 Nominations

    The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 13th Edition

    We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.

    A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.

    We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).

    I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).

    While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.

    You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)

    15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)

    16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)

    17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)

    18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)

    19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)

    20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)

    21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)

    22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)

    23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)

    24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)

    25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    We Live in Time

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)

    12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

    11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting

    Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

    Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Tom Hanks, Here

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

    5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)

    10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. The End (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)

    12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

    14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Maria

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

    13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez

    2. I’m Still Here

    3. The Count of Monte Cristo

    4. Uprising

    5. Grand Tour

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Simon of the Mountain

    7. Evil Does Not Exist

    8. Emmanuelle

    9. Kneecap

    10. The Girl with the Needle

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2

    2. The Wild Robot

    3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    4. Flow

    5. Memoir of a Snail

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Moana 2

    7. Savages

    8. The Most Precious of Cargoes

    9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

    10. Orion and the Dark

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Black Box Diaries

    2. Daughters

    3. Sugarcane

    4. No Other Land

    5. Will & Harper

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

    8. Gaucho Gaucho

    9. Union

    10. Frida

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two

    2. Blitz

    3. Nosferatu

    4. Anora

    5. Gladiator II

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez

    7. Conclave

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux

    9. Queer

    10. Maria

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked

    2. Dune: Part Two

    3. Gladiator II

    4. Nosferatu

    5. Blitz

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

    7. Maria

    8. Megalopolis

    9. Conclave

    10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two

    2. Blitz

    3. Sing Sing

    4. Anora

    5. Emilia Pérez

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

    8. Gladiator II

    9. Challengers

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two

    2. Nosferatu

    3. A Different Man

    4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story

    5. Maria

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    7. Joker: Folie à Deux

    8. Sasquatch Sunset

    9. Longlegs

    10. Nightbitch

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two

    2. Joker: Folie à Deux

    3. Sing Sing

    4. Queer

    5. Emilia Pérez

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz

    7. Gladiator II

    8. Nickel Boys

    9. Nosferatu

    10. Challengers

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Emilia Pérez

    2. TBD from Sing Sing

    3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

    4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    5. TBD from Moana 2

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

    7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

    8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

    9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow

    10. “Release” from Trap

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two

    2. Blitz

    3. Gladiator II

    4. Nosferatu

    5. Wicked

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    7. Joker: Folie à Deux

    8. Conclave

    9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice

    10. Queer

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two

    2. Gladiator II

    3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    4. Blitz

    5. Emilia Pérez

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters

    7. Wicked

    8. A Quiet Place: Day One

    9. Civil War

    10. Nosferatu

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two

    2. Gladiator II

    3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    4. Mufasa: The Lion King

    5. Here

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    7. Blitz

    8. Twisters

    9. Nosferatu

    10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

    And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:

    10 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Blitz, Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    6 Nominations

    Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer

    3 Nominations

    Nickel Boys

    2 Nominations

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked

    1 Nomination

    The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 4th Edition

    Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.

    That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.

    The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.

    Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.

    Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.

    Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.

    You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)

    10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)

    13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)

    16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)

    17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)

    18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)

    19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)

    20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)

    21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)

    22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)

    23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)

    24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Hit Man

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

    9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)

    15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)

    11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Tilda Swinton, The End

    Tessa Thompson, Hedda

    Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)

    12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)

    2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)

    5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)

    10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)

    11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)

    13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)

    15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress

    Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)

    11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)

    12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)

    14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Michael Shannon, The End

    Barry Keoghan, Bird

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

    5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)

    9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

    8. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. The Collaboration (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-4)

    15. Here (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    The Actor

    Oscar Predictions: Fancy Dance

    Lily Gladstone’s work in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon last year was met with nominations across the awards spectrum with victories at the Golden Globes and SAG. Yet she came up short (and was almost certainly runner-up) at the Academy Awards when Emma Stone took Best Actress for Poor Things.

    She may have another at bat with Fancy Dance. The drama/mystery from Erica Tremblay casts Gladstone as an Oklahoman searching for her missing sister while caring for her niece. Isabel DeRoy-Olson, Ryan Begay, and Shea Whigham costar. After its premiere at Sundance in January, Dance is in theaters on a limited basis June 21st before an Apple TV streaming start on June 28th.

    Reviews out of Park City were impressive and this stands at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is not as high profile a project as Gladstone’s preceding picture. Apple will need to put together an aggressive campaign for its lead to contend in Actress for a second year in a row. Her chances are lower this time around to make the Academy’s dance, but it’s possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

    A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

    Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

    Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

    You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

    With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz

    2. Dune: Part Two

    3. Conclave

    4. Sing Sing

    5. The End

    6. Queer

    7. The Fire Inside

    8. Bird

    9. Kinds of Kindness

    10. Dídi

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux

    12. The Apprentice

    13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    15. Civil War

    16. Maria

    17. Megalopolis

    18. The Piano Lesson

    19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

    20. A Real Pain

    21. Here

    22. The Nickel Boys

    23. Hard Truths

    24. Wicked

    25. Gladiator II

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave

    4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

    5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

    7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

    8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

    9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

    10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

    11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    12. Sean Wang, Dídi

    13. Alex Garland, Civil War

    14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

    15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

    3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

    4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

    5. Tilda Swinton, The End

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

    8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

    10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

    12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    13. Zendaya, Challengers

    14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

    4. Daniel Craig, Queer

    5. André Holland, The Actor

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

    7. George MacKay, The End

    8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

    10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

    12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

    13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

    14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

    15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Joan Chen, Dídi

    2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

    3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

    4. Lesley Manville, Queer

    5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

    7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

    8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

    9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

    10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

    12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

    13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

    14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

    15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

    3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

    8. Drew Starkey, Queer

    9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

    11. John Lithgow, Conclave

    12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

    13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

    14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

    15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

    As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!

    97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

    We are about a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and Best Actor and they can be perused here:

    97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We now move to Actress. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Emma Stone for Poor Things. I will note that her main competitor – Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon – was listed at that time as a Supporting Actress contender and not lead. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Annette Bening in Nyad and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. I did not identify Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) at that early juncture.

    Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actress (the vice versa of Gladstone).

    Speaking of Gladstone, she could make a return appearance with Fancy Dance. So could Ms. Stone though I do wonder if the anthology format of Kinds of Kindness slots her here or in lead. Other possibilities include the return of Angelina Jolie to the awards conversation as opera legend Maria Callas in Maria and Lady Gaga as Joker’s muse Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux.

    Here’s the first snapshot:

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

    Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

    Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Angelina Jolie, Maria

    Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

    Other Possibilitities:

    Glenn Close, The Summer Book

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

    Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

    Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

    Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

    Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    Tilda Swinton, The End

    Zendaya, Challengers

    Best Director is up next!