And a new day has dawned on this blog of mine as the 2020 Oscar Predictions begin!
To put it mildly, this is a challenge in 2020. The obvious hindrance is the COVID-19 pandemic that has shut theaters down for the past nearly five months and prevented scores of titles from their release.
It doesn’t stop there. I always do my early prediction posts in the later part of August when significant film festivals are about to get underway. The coronavirus has altered that dynamic as well. The Toronto and Venice festivals will operate in a much different fashion with some releases getting remote screenings and you should expect quite a few Oscar Watch posts in the coming weeks. However, it’s not nearly the volume of previous years. I have chosen to push up these early prediction posts because… well, I don’t have much else to write about!
To add to the mayhem – we have understandably seen a year in which release dates are constantly changing. Some of the pictures mentioned here may not see the light of day by February 2021. That, by the way, is the month the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have extended eligibility to for the upcoming ceremony. A good example: Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch (which has seen its date pushed back more than once) is now a TBD release. We’ve grown accustomed to that lately. For this reason, I am not including it in my inaugural round of predictions.
One potential beneficiary to all of this is Netflix. The streaming giant has loaded up on awards contenders for the season. Three of them in particular – David Fincher’s Mank, Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, and Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 – boasts multiple performers who could see their work recognized in this particular category. In fact, four of the five early predicted nominees here are for Netflix properties.
As with any other year, these first projections are done with another degree of uncertainty and that’s category placement. It is inevitable that some performances in the supporting field could move to lead and vice versa. These decisions will become clearer as time goes along and will certainly shift my predictions in the future. For instance, Delroy Lindo seems bound for a nod in Da 5 Bloods. The smart money is that he’ll be campaigned for in Best Actor, but it’s in the realm of possibility that he could be a Supporting Actor contender.
Looking back at my early 2019 predictions in this category nearly a year ago, only one of my five projected nominees got through the process. It was, however, the winner with Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. For context, I predict my top 5 and then list ten other possibilities. All four other eventual nominees (Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for The Irishman), were all listed as possibilities.
So… let’s get to it with my very speculative first look at which gentlemen could contend in the supporting field!
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Tom Burke, Mank
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
David Strathairn, Nomadland
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Charles Dance, Mank
Lucas Hedges, French Exit
Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Forest Whitaker, Respect
I’ll have Supporting Actress up next! Until then…