20th Century Studios is back in the monkey business this weekend with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Wes Ball takes over the directorial reins for the 56-year-old franchise with Owen Teague, Freya Allan, Kevin Durand, Peter Macon, and William H. Macy among the cast.
This is the 10th feature in the series and the previous nine entries netted six total Academy nominations. Three of them went to the 1968 original with nods for its Score and Costume Design as well as an honorary Oscar for its revolutionary makeup artist John Chambers.
Following that, there was a long break between awards mentions. None of the four sequels to Planet (Beneath the Planet of the Planet, Escape from the Planet of the Apes, Conquest of the Planet of the Apes, Battle for the Planet of the Apes) contended in any races. Neither did Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining of part 1.
It took Rise of the Planet of the Apes in 2011 and sequels Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014) and War for the Planet of the Apes (2017) to get back in the Oscar mix. All 3 were up for their fantastic Visual Effects. The win tally was 0 for 3 as they respectively lost to Hugo, Interstellar, and Blade Runner 2049. Despite high praise for Michael Giacchino’s score and Andy Serkis’s lauded motion capture work as Caesar in that trilogy, VE was the only derby that the Apes ran in.
Kingdom (set many years after the events of War) is perched at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s just ahead of Rise‘s 82% while a bit behind War‘s 94% and Dawn‘s 91%. Some reviews say its visuals don’t quite match what we witnessed in the previous decade. Yet this seems poised for a fourth nomination in a row in that competition. Like its predecessors, a victory seems unlikely as Dune: Part Two may already have it wrapped up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.
Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.
Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.
Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.
Here’s how I have it shaking out now!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)
23. DÃdi (PR: 10) (-13)
24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)
25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Wicked
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Wang, DÃdi
Alex Garland, Civil War
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. DÃdi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, DÃdi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Critics are leaving their negative marks on Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon – Part Two: The Scargiver. Out on Netflix today, the sci-fi epic follows up Part One: A Child of Fire. It debuted on the streamer right before Christmas last year. The sequel features returning cast members Sofia Boutella, Djimon Hounsou, Ed Skrein, Michel Huisman, Doona Bae, Ray Fisher, Staz Nair, Fra Fee, Cary Elwes, and Anthony Hopkins.
Reviews for Part One were pretty brutal at 22% on Rotten Tomatoes. Scargiver‘s score is even worse at 16%. Nevertheless Child of Fire did make the shortlist of ten for Visual Effects at the Academy Awards. When final nominations came out, it missed the cut of five.
I’m skeptical that Part Two will even make the shortlist at year’s end. There will a Part Two among the VE contenders. It’ll be of the Dune variety and probably not the Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and Director and they can be perused here:
We now move to the big prize. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded half of the eventual nominees: the winner Oppenheimer in addition to Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Barbie and The Holdovers. I did not identify American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, or The Zone of Interest at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
It is a safe assumption that the year’s biggest grosser thus far – Dune: Part Two – has punched its ticket to contention. Everything else, frankly, is guesswork right now. With Cannes coming up, some questions will be answered soon. Followers of the blog, however, know this is a months long process in the BP puzzle. It starts today.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
Bird
Blitz
Conclave
DÃdi
Dune: Part Two
The End
The Fire Inside
Kinds of Kindness
Queer
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
The Apprentice
Civil War
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator 2
Hard Truths
Horizon: Am America Saga – Chapter 2
Joker: Folie à Deux
Megalopolis
The Nickel Boys
Nightbitch
The Piano Lesson
A Real Pain
Wicked
I’ll have my first rankings in the six major categories up in short order!
Luca Guadagnino’s sports love triangle Challengers hopes to serve up winning box office numbers when it opens April 26th. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist headline the critically hailed pic that was originally slated for last fall until the actors strike pushed it to spring.
Zendaya is hot off Dune: Part Two and buzz for this follow-up is impressive. The RT score is a sizzling 96%. It will need to make its money off star power as romantic dramas can be a tough sell.
I suspect the worst case scenario is a debut in the low double digits while the rosiest result could be a premiere in the low 20s. My forecast puts it in the mid to high teens.
Challengers opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
Three fresh titles attempt to prevent Civil War from a second weekend atop the charts after a strong premiere. We have vampire flick Abigail, Guy Ritchie’s spy action comedy The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the anime spy action comedy Spy x Family Code: White rolling out. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be found here:
It could be a genuine photo finish for the top spot. I spy Civil War dropping in the mid 50s as a hefty fall seems likely given the weaker B- Cinemascore grade. That could allow any of the newbies to compete for #1. I’m giving it to Abigail for what would be a so-so start.
Spy x Family Code: White could threaten in the low double digits, but I have it just under $10 million for a third place showing.
As for Warfare, I’m expecting Ritchie’s latest to be a flop despite pretty decent reviews. I have it rounding out the top five behind the fourth frame of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.
Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:
1. Abigail
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
2. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. Spy x Family Code: White
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (April 12-14)
Alex Garland’s buzzy Civil War opened near the higher end of its anticipated range with $25.7 million, besting my $18 million forecast. That’s a record for A24 whose previous largest beginning was held by 2018’s Hereditary in the low teens.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire slipped to second after two weeks in 1st with $15.5 million, on target with my $15.9 million take. The monster mash has amassed $158 million thus far.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $5.7 million (I was right there at $5.6 million) for $96 million in its four weeks of release.
Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth as it added $5.5 million to its now $173 million haul. I projected $5.1 million.
Dune: Part Two rounded out the top five with $4.3 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The seven week tally is $272 million.
Finally, Monkey Man fell a steep 60% in its sophomore frame to $4 million (I went with $4.9 million) for $17 million overall.
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
Nicolas Cage’s movie this month is the post-apocalyptic horror tale Arcadian from director Ben Brewer. Out this weekend, it costars Jaeden Martell of It fame and Maxwell Jenkins as Cage’s twin sons. It was first screened at South by Southwest to mostly complimentary notices. The RT score is 85%.
The trio must battle dangerous creatures when the sun sets. Some reviews say the monstrous visual effects are its strongest feature. Yet I question whether Arcadian will still be in the minds of voters for that category many months down the road. And there will likely be potential heavy hitters in VE coming our way this summer and beyond. That’s in addition to Dune: Part Two which is already the frontrunner. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Luca Guadagnino’s love triangle/sports drama Challengers was expected to open the Venice Film Festival last September and have a plum awards-friendly fall release date for 2023. The actors strike changed that dynamic and now it’s slated for April 26th. Could it still make a racket at the Oscars and beyond?
It might get some love in some categories. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist make up the aforementioned triangle. Reviews are strong with 96% on RT and critics praising their work. If any of the trio enter the mix, Zendaya seems to have the best shot. She’s said to serve up a career best performance according to several critics. The Dune: Part Two star was in the mix for 2021’s Malcolm & Marie, but ultimately didn’t make the cut. Her chances are fair though obviously lots of competition will come in the next several months.
A Best Picture nom may be a stretch. I wouldn’t totally discount it. However, Guadagnino has the historical drama Queer later in the year and it seems poised for a campaign in multiple categories. As for Challengers, Original Screenplay is a possibility. The race where do I expect a play is the Original Score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross as it’s being pointed out as a highlight frequently. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…