In 1995, Ang Lee’s take on Jane Austen’s early 19th-century novel Sense and Sensibility picked up seven Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Actress (Emma Thompson), and Supporting Actress (Kate Winslet). It would win Adapted Screenplay for Emma Thompson’s treatment of the source material.
Over two decades later, Georgia Oakley (director of 2022’s acclaimed Blue Jean) is making her version with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles playing the respective roles that Thompson and Winslet were up for. Costars include Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw. It hits U.K. venues this Friday with the U.S. premiere on October 16th.
Reviews are calling this a mostly successful retelling of Austen’s work with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. The general consensus seems to be that it doesn’t match what Lee and Thompson accomplished. However, if the box office is strong, I could see it at least being a possibility in the same major races as 1995’s Sense. This includes Edgar-Jones in lead Actress though I feel Creed-Miles has a better chance in Supporting Actress (which is a bit of a head scratcher competition at the moment).
Tech categories such as Costume Design and Production Design are more likely and it’s entirely possible that this version only pops up there. The score is also getting some shoutouts. My sense at the moment is putting it in BP seems like a bit of a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival is a truly predictive bellwether for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? Thirteen of the past fourteen winners of the Canadian prize have nabbed a BP mention. That extends to sixteen of the last eighteen including the following Academy winners for the highest prize: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. Movies that took People’s Choice and were nominated for BP include Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jojo Rabbit, American Fiction, and last year’s Hamnet. Since 2012, only Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck took the PCA award and did not receive a BP nom from the Academy.
Additionally, the runner-up and second runner-up designation at TIFF is filled with Best Picture winners and nominees in the 21st century. That list includes Juno, Argo, Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, The Power of the Dog, The Holdovers, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Frankenstein.
So… this is kind of a big deal. For six years in a row, two of the three People Choice’s selections from each year were honored with BP mentions from the Academy.
That’s why The Black Ball (La bola negra in Spanish) unquestionably punched its ticket to a Best Picture nod and a chance to emerge victorious. Truth be told, it was there already. The international drama (a near shoo-in winner for International Feature Film in a few months) was TIFF’s top choice. I’ve had it ranked 2nd behind Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for months. An argument can be made (especially now) to rank the Netflix property in first. Don’t be surprised if I still roll with Odyssey but Ball upped its opportunity even more so with today’s annoucement.
Many assumed Ball would get TIFF’s International People’s Choice prize but that surprisingly went to Simon Stone’s Elsinore with Andrew Scott (in what is anticipated to be a Best Actor nominated performance). This is a nice prize for Elsinore‘s chances in BP.
The real intrigue lies with TIFF’s runner-up selections: Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Sian Heder’s Being Heumann. The former was tagged as a crowd pleaser upon its screening though reviews were mixed. The latter is Heder’s follow-up to her Best Picture winning CODA from 2021. If this is the seventh year where two out of three make the Oscar BP cut, I haven’t had either of these in my top ten. The streak could be broken this year, but I’d say Rocky has a better shot than Heumann.
It is worth noting some contenders that didn’t make the top 3 from the festival going voters. Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine were both strong possibilities. I have both in my BP ten and today’s developments are unlikely to take either out. One film that could have benefited more had it been included is Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid. A People’s Choice shoutout would’ve increased its visibility and now I think it might not be a major campaigning priority for A24 (who have other hopefuls to champion).
Bottom line: The Black Ball is rolling and should continue to do so as the season begins in earnest.
Israeli filmmaker Guy Nattiv is an Oscar winner for his 2018 short film Skin and he hopes to be back in the awards conversation with his feature-length drama The Liberation. It premiered at Telluride before its limited November release and wide January rollout via Bleecker Street.
Carrie Coon stars in the 1980s set tale of a woman lured into a cult. The supporting cast includes Bella Ramsey, Odessa Young, Lily James, and Coon’s real-life hubby Tracy Letts. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with a 73 on Metacritic.
Much of the critical praise is trained on Coon, who has picked up Critics Choice awards and Emmy nods for her TV work in The Leftovers, Fargo, The Gilded Age, and The White Lotus. She has yet to get the Academy’s attention. Her performance here could be that ticket, but I’m not confident Bleecker Street will mount the campaign necessary for that to occur. Coon will need a precursor or two to increase her visibility. If that happens, I wouldn’t discount her though I’ve yet to have her anywhere near my predicted five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom hopes to become the third feature in a row in the franchise to nab an Animated Feature mention at the Oscars. Based on the TV series spun off from Wallace & Gromit, Steve Cox and Matthew Walker take over directorial duties for the stop-motion hijinks. The voiceover cast includes Justin Fletcher, John Sparkes, Kate Harbour, Dani Dyer, and Nina Sosanya. GKIDS is handling domestic distribution with a limited release this weekend.
Previous Sheep sagas have lost to Pixar pics. 2015’s Shaun the Sheep Movie fell short to Inside Out while 2020’s Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon couldn’t catch Soul. Reviews for third tale are favorable with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic.
I have yet to put Bottom in my top five in the animated race. I’m questioning whether I’m underestimating it. I kind of figured voters may glaze over it. However, if titles like Ray Gunn and Wildwood don’t meet their potential this fall, this could definitely nab a spot in the quintet and it might anyway. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
With Robert Pattinson headlining as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, Primetime is exposed in multiplexes starting September 25th. Lance Oppenheim, a documentarian making his narrative feature debut, directs (he’s got the buzzy doc You Can See Everything out in October). Costars include Merritt Wever, Skyler Gisondo, Phoebe Bridgers, Bokeem Woodbine, Anna Faris, and Tony Revolori.
Primetime picked up mostly positive buzz after its unveiling at the Venice Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 73. There is chatter for the busy Pattinson nabbing his first Oscar nomination. Will that translate to lots of moviegoers having a seat in theaters?
A solid result would be anything north of $10 million and I think that is achievable. I’ll go a bit over as it hopes WOM keeps it afloat moving forward.
Primetime opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million
For my Avengers Endgame: Encore prediction, click here:
Forgotten Island from DreamWorks Animation is the fairly rare wholly original feature from a genre often reliant on sequels and other known IP. Joel Crawford (who last helmed Puss in Boots: The Last Wish) and Januel Mercado direct with a voice cast including H.E.R., Liza Soberano, Dave Franco, Jenny Slate, Manny Jacinto, Dolly de Leon, Jo Koy, Ronny Chieng, and Lea Salonga.
The fantastical comedy hopes to bring in kids (particular young girls) and their parents in a market devoid of much family programming. However, general lack of awareness and minimal buzz for the 1990s Philippines set tale could limit its potential.
Animated flicks can always exceed expectations and the ceiling could be an opening in the $25 million neighborhood. I’m more skeptical and projecting high teens.
Forgotten Island opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million
For my Avengers Endgame: Encore prediction, click here:
2026’s edition of the Toronto Film Festival continues through the weekend while Jonatan Etzler’s black comedy Bad Apples is out today after premiering after last year’s festival. Saoirse Ronan stars as a schoolteacher unconventionally dealing with an unruly student. The supporting cast includes Eddie Waller, Nia Brown, Jacob Anderson, Rakie Ayola, Robert Emms, and Sean Gilder.
With Republic Pictures handling distribution rights, Apples was finally picked for stateside distribution a year following its Canadian debut. Some reviews are praising its originality and Ronan’s work. It has 82% on Rotten Tomatoes with a more tempered 65 Metacritic.
A four-time Academy nominee, Ronan’s latest didn’t generate awards buzz in 2025 and is having a quiet rollout in 2026. Don’t expect this to pick up any traction in the season ahead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Brad Pitt reunites with his Fury director David Ayer for the survival tale Heart of the Beast on September 25th. While J.K. Simmons and Anna Lambe costar, Pitt’s main companion is German Shepherd Uber as Odin. The story centers around a Special Forces member and his combat dog stranded in the wilderness following a plane crash.
Beast could benefit from being Pitt’s first feature since last summer’s smash F1. A best case scenario could land it close to $20 million. A disappointing result would be in the lower double digits. I’ve got this right in the middle of that range for a respectable debut as Paramount hopes strong WOM will carry it in the future weekends.
Heart of the Beast opening weekend prediction: $15.7 million
For my Avengers: Endgame Encore prediction, click here:
Based on the acclaimed stage play that won Jodie Comer a Tony Award, Prima Facie has played at the Toronto Film Festival as domestic distribution remains up in the air. Susanna White directs with Cynthia Erivo (replacing Comer) in the central role. The supporting cast includes Daniel Ings, Simon Russell Beale, Elizabeth Dulau, and Norma Dumezweni.
Critics are being complimentary of Erivo’s work. The actress/singer is a two-time lead Actress nominee for 2019’s Harriet and 2024’s Wicked. However, reviews for the pic itself are primarily negative with only 27% on Rotten Tomatoes. I wouldn’t completely discount Erivo’s chances to be in the conversation in Best Actress, but the smartest verdict for the legal drama is that it comes up empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Before this week, the highest Rotten Tomatoes score among the seven Resident Evil pictures belonged to 2016’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter at a whopping 37%. Of course, it was not the final chapter for the video game based franchise. Zach Cregger’s reboot opens this weekend where Evil is expected to post good grosses. Austin Abrams stars with a supporting cast including Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, and Paul Walter Hauser.
To say the Tomato record is broken is understatement as it sports 96% with Metacritic at 80 (Final Chapter also held the MC best at 49). Cregger’s predecessor Weapons was an unexpected summer smash in 2025 that won Amy Madigan a Supporting Actress Oscar as the witchy Aunt Gladys. The pic itself likely came close to nabbing Best Picture and Original Screenplay mentions.
Evil is not your typical awards player though Makeup & Hairstyling and Visual Effects are at least worthy of bringing up. Weapons might’ve come close to getting in for the latter. Despite the much better than expected critical reaction, I doubt this gets in those tech competitions but the shortlists will be worth monitoring down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
