Oscar Nominations: The Case of Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final director for consideration is Chloé Zhao for Hamnet. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Previous Directing Nominations:

2020: Nomadland (WON)

The Case for Chloé Zhao:

For the tearjerking historical drama, she could make history by becoming the first female to win this twice (only two others have taken the gold). Hamnet is the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. Zhao was nominated everywhere that matters, however…

The Case Against Chloé Zhao:

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has taken all notable precursors – Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the highly predictive DGA. Ryan Coogler (Sinners) has emerged as the competition if Sinners manages a mild BP upset.

The Verdict:

Zhao is not going to achieve filmmaking Oscar #2 though she’s likely to have directed another Best Actress winner via Jessie Buckley with Frances McDormand in Nomadland being the first.

And that concludes for Case Of write-ups for the 98th Academy Awards! FINAL predictions on the winners will be up on the blog in short order…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final entrant in Best Supporting Actor is Swedish veteran Stellan Skarsgård in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. If you missed my posts covering the others, they can found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Delroy Lindo in Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Stellan Skarsgård:

He’s a well-respected thespian who finally nabbed a role with big screen awards attention. As film director Gustav Borg, Skarsgård joins costars Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass as nominees. He received the Golden Globe where seven of the past ten winners have matched with Oscar. Additionally, nominations came at Critics Choice and BAFTA.

The Case Against Stellan Skarsgård:

Surprisingly, he did not make the cut at SAG Actor. The last Oscar winner to not show up at SAG was Christoph Waltz for 2012’s Django Unchained. That’s the only time where the Academy’s honoree didn’t contend at SAG. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) has the momentum with prizes at BAFTA and SAG while Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) took Critics Choice.

The Verdict:

Skarsgård could pull the upset, but he’s behind Penn for sure. While he might have the best shot among the Value quartet, he’s still a long shot.

My Case Of posts will continue the fifth contender in Best Director – Chloé Zhao for Hamnet…

March 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Two new features vie for audience attention as romantic drama Reminders of Him and low-budget Canadian horror flick Undertone make their way to multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Reminders of Him Box Office Prediction
Undertone Box Office Prediction

It is highly unlikely that either comes close to bouncing Hoppers from a repeat performance in first. Reminders, based on a Colleen Hoover novel, should be second though I have it just topping $10 million for a subpar start.

I’m not expecting much from Undertone, but it could manage a 4th or 5th place showing considering The Bride! should plummet out of the top 5 after a dismal debut (more on that below).

Hoppers, as mentioned, should be #1 assuming a slide in the high 30s or low 40s with Scream 7 and Goat placing third and fourth.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million

2. Reminder of Him

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

3. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. Undertone

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Goat

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

6. The Bride!

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (March 6-8)

Disney/Pixar had a commendable opening for an original title as Hoppers earned $45.3 million, slightly topping my $43.6 million prediction. That’s a cut above recent studio originals Elemental and Elio which both failed to reach $30 million in their unveilings.

Scream 7 was runner-up and dropped a severe 73% in weekend #2 to $17 million, under my $19.5 million call. The latest franchise entry is up to $93 million.

The Bride!, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s monster mash with Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale, failed to collect RSVPs with only $7 million in third. I projected more at $10.3 million. With a reported $85 million price tag, this is a costly dud for Warner Bros.

Goat was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $5.8 million) as the animated tale has amassed $83 million in four weeks.

Wuthering Heights rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in range with my $3.4 million forecast. The period romance, in its fourth week, stands at $78 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Project Hail Mary

Project Hail Mary touches down in theaters March 20th looking to score impressive box office numbers. The sci-fi adventure comes from filmmakers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, best known for their involvement in the Lego, 21/22 Jump Street, and Spider-Verse franchises. Ryan Gosling headlines with Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub providing support.

Early reviews are encouraging with many critics calling this a big-hearted popcorn feast reminiscent of Spielberg. Rotten Tomatoes is fresh at 96% with Metacritic at 80. If Mary pops with audiences and becomes a financial hit, that could help with awards attention. Down the line nods including Daniel Pemberton’s score, Editing, Production Design, and especially Sound and Visual Effects are all possibilities.

How it fares in the major races is more of an open question. Under a best case scenario, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by Drew Goddard from the Andy Weir novel) could happen. This logic also applies to Best Picture like other space tales Gravity and The Martian (also based on a Weir story). It could also miss the big dance like other genre titles Interstellar and Gosling’s First Man. The leading man could make a play for a fourth acting mention.

The bottom line is that this Project could be one that Oscar voters notice. To what level remains to be seen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Undertone Box Office Prediction

A24 is looking for Undertone to scare up some business with the low-budget (reportedly $500k) Canadian horror pic dropping on March 13th. From writer/director Ian Tuason and starring Nina Kiri and Adam DiMarco, the distributor picked up the title after its premiere last summer at Fantasia Fest. At that time, it landed mostly solid reviews with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 68 Metacritic.

That said, it’s hard to envision this having mass appeal as it should cater strictly to attentive genre followers. With no star power driving it and muted buzz, I suspect a debut under $5 million sounds about right.

Undertone opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Reminders of Him prediction, click here:

Reminders of Him Box Office Prediction

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our final entrant among the Supporting Actress nominees is Teyana Taylor in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed the previous posts in this race, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Amy Madigan in Weapons
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Teyana Taylor:

The multi-faceted entertainer received raves as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in the potential BP winner. Taylor has been nominated in all key precursors and was victorious at the Golden Globes. That race has matched the Oscars in Supporting Actress for seven out of the past ten years. She joins costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn in vying for attention. While her screen time is limited, Taylor’s presence is felt throughout the film.

The Case Against Teyana Taylor:

Any momentum has been stalled since the Globes. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took Critics Choice and SAG Actor while Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) is the BAFTA recipient. Sean Penn has arguably emerged as the thespian most likely to take gold for PTA’s latest.

The Verdict:

Supporting Actress has no clear frontrunner. If Battle is your BP and Director victor, that increases the chances for Taylor to make a podium trip. There’s also no doubt that Madigan and Mosaku have strong cases.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The Best Actor derby’s final entrant is Wagner Moura in Kieber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent. If you missed my posts covering the other leading men, they can be found here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Wagner Moura:

For the Brazilian political thriller, Moura took home the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. That particular race has matched Oscar 11 out of the last 13 years. It helps that the Academy has a larger international contingent than some of the other awards bodies. The Narcos star also got the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival and was nominated at Critics Choice.

The Case Against Wagner Moura:

No nods at BAFTA or SAG Actor. For SAG Actor (which began in 1994), there has never been an Oscar winner in this lead race that wasn’t nominated there. At BAFTA, you have to go back to 2013 and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club).

The Verdict:

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) is the Globe winner in a Musical or Comedy while Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) picked up momentum at SAG Actor. The case for Moura is somewhat compelling but that SAG Actor stat in particular is tough to ignore. A victory is not impossible, but it would be an upset and a fairly bold pick.

My Case Of posts will continue with the last Supporting Actress to consider and that’s Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another…

Reminders of Him Box Office Prediction

Out Friday, romantic drama Reminders of Him is the latest entry in the expanding Colleen Hoover cinematic universe. Based on a 2022 novel by the YA author, Vanessa Caswill directs a cast led by Maika Monroe and Tyriq Withers. Costars include Rudy Pankow, country artist Lainey Wilson, Lauren Graham, and Bradley Whitford.

In 2024, the adaptation of Hoover’s best known work It Ends with Us was a scorching success. It debuted to $50 million on its way to $148 million domestically (and plenty of tabloid ink after its release thanks to Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni). Last fall, Regretting You (from a 2019 Hoover story) saw notably smaller numbers with a $13.7 million start and $49 million overall stateside.

The buzz for Him seems quiet and I’m estimating the downward trend will continue. I’ll project it barely tops $10 million.

Reminders of Him opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million

For my Undertone prediction, click here:

Undertone Box Office Prediction

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Emma Stone in Bugonia

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our final performer in Best Actress is Emma Stone for Bugonia. If you missed my posts covering the others, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value

Previous Acting Nominations:

2014 (Supporting Actress) – Birdman – lost to Patricia Arquette in Boyhood; 2016 (Actress) – La La Land (WON); 2018 (Supporting Actress) – The Favourite – lost to Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk; 2023 (Actress) – Poor Things (WON)

The Case for Emma Stone:

She’s won the other two times she was up in the lead competition and her collaborations with Yorgos Lanthimos have attracted lots of Oscar attention. For her work in Bugonia, she was nominated at key precursors SAG Actor, BAFTA, the Golden Globes, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Emma Stone:

Best Actress is the one acting category where a sweep is expected to occur thanks to Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. Her performance has won everywhere and the Academy could certainly feel that Stone has been well-rewarded in recent years. Her costar Jesse Plemons couldn’t manage a nod.

The Verdict:

Stone will not be making a third trip to the stage.

My Case Of posts will continue the last Best Actor contender – Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth director for consideration is Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Joachim Trier:

The Dutch auteur’s family drama exceeded expectations on nominations morning with nine including another at bat for his Original Screenplay with Eskil Vogt. BAFTA and Golden Globe nods preceded the Oscar mention.

The Case Against Joachim Trier:

Trier didn’t make the cut at Critics Choice and, most importantly, Academy bellwether DGA. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has swept the season thus far with Ryan Coogler (Sinners) seen as the only threat.

The Verdict:

Trier might have a slightly stronger shot for his cowriting (though Sinners is looking likely there). A directing victory isn’t happening.

My Case Of posts will continue with the final entrant in Best Actress – Emma Stone in Bugonia…