April 3-5 Box Office Predictions

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should play to domestic and worldwide domination over the Easter holiday as April dawns. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel debuts alongside Zendaya and Robert Pattinson in The Drama. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction
The Drama Box Office Prediction

Three Easters back, The Super Mario Bros. Movie blew past expectations with nearly $150 million from Friday to Sunday and over $200 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Galaxy is smartly following the same release pattern. While I don’t think the results will be quite as much, it should surpass Project Hail Mary as the year’s largest premiere.

Speaking of Mary, there’s something about its second weekend that was remarkable (more on that below). The sci-fi tale with Ryan Gosling should have no trouble being strong in the runner-up position after two weeks on top.

As for The Drama, it’s more of a question mark. It looks to draw upon the star appeal of its young leads. I have it earning a tad more than Zendaya’s Challengers from 2024 in the mid teens for a third place showing.

Holdovers Hoppers and Reminders of Him should round out the top five and here’s how I have it rolling out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $171.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

3. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Reminders of Him

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (March 27-29)

Amazon MGM had a banner sophomore frame with Project Hail Mary. After launching to $80 million, the acclaimed adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel declined a meager 33% to $54 million for a two-week haul of $163 million. Eclipsing my $44.8 million prediction, a domestic end run of over $300 million appears to be happening as the crowd favorite builds Oscar steam.

Hoppers remained in second with $12.1 million, right in line with my $12 million call. Disney/Pixar’s original story has risen to $138 million after four weeks.

Comedic horror entry They Will Kill You was DOA in its unveiling. With $4.9 million in third, the Warner Bros release failed to hit my $6.3 million forecast. Look for it to fade fast.

Reminders of Him was fourth with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.3 million estimate. The romantic drama has made a respectable $41 million after three weeks.

Dhurandhar: The Revenge was right behind in fifth with $4.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the high five. The total is $22 million after two weeks.

Also in its second outing, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come fell 54% to $4.1 million (I said $4.2 million). The underwhelming sequel sits at $16 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Halle Bailey, No One Cares

Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

Claire Foy, Ink

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Michaela Coel, Mother Mary

Olivia Colman, Elsinore

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada 2

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I made my first picks in 2025, my projected quintet yielded just one eventual nominee in Stellan Skasgård for Sentimental Value. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly identified Sean Penn for One Battle After Another who would win his third statue. The other three nominees – Benicio del Toro in One Battle, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, and Delroy Lindo in Sinners were not named.

An interesting factoid about this particular acting race: 18 of the last 20 hopefuls come from Best Picture nominees. That’s certainly something to keep in mind when making these initial forecasts.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

Last year, I projected Colman Domingo making the cut as Jackson family patriarch Joseph Jackson in Michael. That film ended up getting pushed to this April. This time around, I don’t have him in my five but he’s hanging around in other possibilities.

As for other names to keep an eye on, Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine) and John Goodman (Digger) could be looking at their first noms after long and respected careers. Buscemi may face competition from his costar Sam Rockwell. It is currently unknown what the category placement will be for Rockwell, but I’ll slot him here for now. There’s more than one possibility in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey with Tom Holland appearing as the most high profile. Guy Pearce (Ink) will vie for his second go-round in this category two years after The Brutalist.

Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

John Goodman, Digger

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Guy Pearce, Ink

Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

Colman Domingo, Michael

Ciarán Hinds, Cry to Heaven

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Miles Teller, Paper Tiger

D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

Oscar Predictions – The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist

Following its Sundance premiere in January, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist is in actual theaters this weekend. Daniel Roher, who made the 2022 Oscar winning documentary Navalny, co-directs with Charlie Tyrell. Per the title, the Focus Features pickup centers on a hot button issue and should generate a fair amount of attention for its genre.

Whether that translates to any awards focus is a trickier question. While Rotten Tomatoes is at an optimistic 88%, the 57 Metacritic is more glass half empty. The Academy’s branch of doc voters often don’t go with the highest profile titles and the mixed critical reaction can’t help much. That said, I’m sure its distributor will attempt to keep it visible months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Drama Box Office Prediction

Taking a break from their high profile franchises (albeit briefly), Zendaya and Robert Pattinson headline the relationship tale The Drama on April 3rd. Written and directed by Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) and described as both a dark comedy and romantic thriller, it will try and find a large female audience over the Easter holiday. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoë Winters provide support.

The film’s leads will be seen together this December in Dune: Part Three and that will certainly be their biggest 2026 hit. However, The Drama has breakout potential due to its star power and counter programming ability while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary dominate the charts.

A worst case scenario might be double digits or low teens and failing to match the $15 million that Zendaya’s Challengers opened with two years ago. A dream scenario would be anything beyond $20 million. I think that’s achievable, but I’ll project mid to higher teens.

The Drama opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my The Super Mario Galaxy Movie prediction, click here:

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction

Illumination Entertainment looks to light up the Easter frame with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1st. The animated comedic adventure is the follow-up to 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie which debuted over the same holiday to fantastic results. Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back co-directing with Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan- Michael Key, and Kevin Michael Richardson reprising the voices of their Nintendo character roles. Newcomers behind the mic include Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Issa Rae, Luis Guzmán, and Brie Larson.

As mentioned, 2023’s original was a massive blockbuster. In early April, it too rolled out over an expanded five-day period to top level results. The three-day start was $146.3 million with $204.6 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. It would leg out to $574 million and become the year’s second largest domestic earner behind Barbie.

With a short lag time for the sequel, a best case scenario might be a premiere on par or slightly better than its predecessor. I suspect it might coming in lower, but still with impressive numbers.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opening weekend prediction: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $172.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Drama prediction, click here:

The Drama Box Office Prediction

March 27-29 Box Office Predictions

Project Hail Mary touched down with fantastic results as it looks to easily repeat in 1st place as March closes out. Horror comedy They Will Kill You is the sole wide release newcomer and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:

They Will Kill You Box Office Prediction

A best case scenario for They Will Kill You might be a second place finish in the low double digits or low teens. I’m going lower in the mid single digits for a third place start.

Space set Hail Mary opened at the top end of its expected range for 2026’s highest premiere (more on that below). It scored the second largest debut for a non-franchise, non-sequel behind Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling’s second best unveiling after Barbie. I suspect the sophomore dip will be in the mid 40s (similar to Oppenheimer).

Hoppers should remain in the runner-up position as it heads into the Easter frame. The 4-5 spots should be close between Reminders of Him and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come after its meh debut.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

2. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $12 million

3. They Will Kill You

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

4. Reminders of Him

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

5. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (March 20-22)

Project Hail Mary reached for the stars and achieved a remarkable launch with $80.5 million, zooming beyond my $69 million prediction. With solid reviews and awards buzz, it turned out to be the event film that Amazon MGM was hoping for. The future looks bright as it faces no obstacles topping the charts again.

Hoppers, after two weeks in 1st, was second with $17.8 million. That’s on target with my $18.4 million call as Disney/Pixar’s latest hit $120 million after three weeks.

Indian action sequel Dhurandhar: The Revenge managed bragging rights by outgrossing the Ready or Not follow-up. With the second best per theater average, it made $10 million compared to my $7.8 million forecast with $14 million in the bank since its Wednesday bow.

Ready or Not 2: Here I Come stumbled in fourth with $9 million, under my $11.2 million take. The horror sequel showed that most genre fans fell on the not ready side.

Reminders of Him rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $9.2 million) for a two-week tally of $33 million.

Scream 7 was sixth with $4.3 million. I went with $5.3 million as the latest franchise entry’s four-week earnings rose to $114 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Weight

Ethan Hawke, fresh off his third acting Oscar nod for Blue Moon, headlines the 1930s set survival drama The Weight. Directed by Padraic McKinley and scheduled for domestic release in September, it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and has also played Berlin. Costars include Julia Jones, Austin Amelio, and Russell Crowe.

Plenty of reviews are praising this as an old-fashioned yarn with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 70 on Metacritic is more indicative of positive write-ups expressing some reservations. A lot of the kudos are going to Hawke’s performance.

Indie outlet Vertical picked up distribution rights. This is not a company who’ve successfully played much in the awards campaigning space. They’ll need to up their game for Hawke to be in contention for a back-to-back nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

They Will Kill You Box Office Prediction

Atlanta and Joker star Zazie Beetz gets a headlining role in They Will Kill You on March 27th. The horror comedy debuted at South by Southwest and is directed and cowritten by Kirill Sokolov. Set at a hotel with its set of literal demons, the supporting cast includes Myha’la, Paterson Joseph, Tom Felton, Heather Graham, and Patricia Arquette.

Fans of the genre have had plenty to feast on lately via Scream 7 and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come the prior weekend. Reviews thus far give it a reassuring 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. I do struggle to sense any breakout potential. High single digits might be its ceiling, but I’m inclined to think mid single digits with a gross similar to last year’s Death of a Unicorn.

They Will Kill You opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million

Oscar Predictions: Power Ballad

Power Ballad is the latest musical dramedy in the genre that Irish filmmaker John Carney specializes in. Slated for a June 5th stateside bow, the Lionsgate release features Paul Rudd as a wedding singer who scores an unexpected hit via a fading boy band star (Nick Jonas). The supporting cast includes Peter McDonald, Marcella Plunkett, Haley Rose Liu, and Jack Reynor. Months before the summer premiere, it has been screened this month at the Dublin International Film Festival and South by Southwest.

Carney is best known for 2007’s Once with follow-ups including Begin Again and Sing Street. It sounds like he might have another crowdpleaser on deck. Ballad has scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 82% on Metacritic. Some reviews are calling it one of Rudd’s strongest performances.

While awards prospects are likely limited, both Once and Begin Again landed Original Song noms at the Oscars. The song at the center here is “How To Write a Song (Without You)” and it could be a track worth monitoring several months down the line. If Lionsgate puts up a decent campaign in Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes (where Sing Street vied for Best Motion Picture), both the movie and Rudd could contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…