Spider-Man: Brand New Day appears poised to swing the best opening of 2026 when it debuts this weekend. Marking the 38th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth stand-alone Spidey entry starring Tom Holland, Destin Daniel Cretton takes over directorial duties from Jon Watts. Zendaya and Jacob Batalon reprise their roles with MCU regulars Mark Ruffalo as Hulk and Jon Bernthal as The Punisher appearing. Other costars include Sadie Sink, Tramell Tillman, and Michael Mando.
Going back to 2002 when Sam Raimi’s Spidey flick with Tobey Maguire set box office records, the 21st century tales of Mr. Parker have a limited Oscar history. The ’02 version landed Sound and Visual Effects mentions. The 2004 sequel (considered by many to be the strongest of all films featuring the character) won Visual Effects and was up for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Then there was a Spidey drought with 2007’s Spider-Man 3, 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man and its 2014 follow-up (with Andrew Garfield), and Holland’s Spider-Man: Homecoming from 2017 and 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home not receiving any recognition. Predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) got into the Visual Effects derby, losing to Dune.
While there’s been inconsistency during awards season, there’s been plenty of consistency in the reviews for Holland’s quartet. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores are as follows:
Spider-Man: Homecoming: 92% RT, 73 MC
Spider-Man: Far From Home: 91% RT, 69 MC
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 93%, 71 MC
Spider-Man: Brand New Day: 90% RT, 70 MC
Despite the mostly appreciative critical reaction, I expect this to generate no nominations. No Way Home benefitted from a year where there weren’t as many blockbusters with pricey special effects (COVID was limiting theatrical engagements). There are gripes about New Day‘s inconsistent VE. With Project Hail Mary and The Odyssey probably already having two spots locked up and others like Dune: Part Three on the way, my sense is that this goes home empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:
The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).
After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.
The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters with Hadestown: The Musical in that mix and perhaps staying in third. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $251 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $48.5 million
3. Hadestown: The Musical
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. Moana
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
6. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (July 24-26)
The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.
Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.
Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.
Danish auteur Nicolas Winding Refn generated critical acclaim early in his career for the Pusher trilogy, Bronson, and stateside breakthrough Drive with Ryan Gosling in 2011. His footprint with Academy voters, however, is limited to Drive‘s lone Sound Editing nom. The filmmaker’s follow-ups Only God Forgives and The Neon Demon received mixed to negative reactions.
His latest is Her Private Hell and it’s out this weekend in limited engagements. The sci-fi thriller stars Sophie Thatcher and Charles Melton with a supporting cast including Havana Rose Liu, Kristine Froseth, Shioli Kutsana, Aoi Yamada, Dougray Scott, Diego Calva, and Hidetoshi Nishijima.
Hell was met with far from a heavenly reception when it premiered at Cannes. With 48% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 44 Metacritic, it represents the weakest overall numbers for Refn. Any hopes of being an awards contender in any fashion evaporated immediately. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 38th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the fourth entry in Tom Holland’s take on the web slinger, Spider-Man: Brand New Day swings into multiplexes on July 31st. It is highly unlikely that audiences will forget to check in. Destin Daniel Cretton, who helmed Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings for the studio, directs. Zendaya and Jacob Batalon reprise their roles from the franchise with Mark Ruffalo’s Hulk and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher in the mix. Other cast members include Sadie Sink, Tramell Tillman, and Michael Mando.
It’s been four and a half years since Spider-Man: No Way Home became 2021’s biggest grosser and sixth largest earner of all time domestically. The high profile joining of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield’s Spideys with Holland’s (and the villains who populated earlier movies) proved irresistible to audiences. Home kicked off with $260 million (the second best MCU start behind Avengers: Endgame) and $814 million stateside when all was said and done.
Expectations aren’t quite as high for Brand New Day, but they’re not far behind. This MCU adventure should easily post 2026’s top domestic opening currently held by Toy Story 5 ($159 million). In a best case scenario, it could achieve the third most impressive MCU premiere and surpass Avengers: Infinity War‘s $257 million. I’ve got it fourth and believe the floor is $230 million with a ceiling right around No Way Home‘s haul.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day opening weekend prediction: $251 million
Blogger’s Update (07/22): Hadestown: The Musical, captures a live recording of the Tony award winning smash and has a five-day theatrical run beginning Friday. I did not do an individiual prediction post for it since I am still unaware of its theater count. That said, pre-sales look strong so I’m projecting it falls just under $10 million for fifth place. Under the right circumstances, it could be as high as second.
With epic hit The Odyssey entering a fruitful second frame and Spider-Man: Brand New Day hitting on July 31st, studios are avoiding any significant wide releases this weekend.
Christopher Nolan’s awards contender based on Homer’s Greek works exceeded expectations (more on that below). Along with critics, moviegoers are on its side with an A Cinemascore grade and 97% audience score on RT. The filmmaker’s Oscar-winning predecessor Oppenheimer declined 43% in its sophomore outing and I could see a similar result here. In fact, I think it might witness a smaller percentage drop. That would mean a gross nearing or at $75 million.
Disney should once again hold spots 2-3 with Moana and Toy Story 5 while Illuminations Entertainment’s Minions & Monsters places fourth. The grosses for the three family offerings could be close and that makes the rankings slightly tricky to call.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $74.6 million
2. Moana
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
4. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $9 million
5. Hadestown: The Musical
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
Box Office Results (July 17-19)
As mentioned, The Odyssey began its powerful and likely long cinematic journey to grand results with $123.5 million. That’s ahead of my $106.2 million prediction and boasts the third highest domestic Nolan debut behind The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight. It is also the greatest foreign start for any feature from the auteur.
Moana fell a steep but anticipated 58% to second with $17.9 million compared to my $19.1 million projection. The underwhelming two-week results for the Mouse House are $81 million.
Toy Story 5 was third with $13.7 million, a tad more than my $12.4 million forecast. Disney is not underwhelmed in this case with $429 million in five weeks.
Minions & Monsters was right behind in fourth with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.7 million estimate. The three-week tally is $136 million.
Finally, Evil Dead Burn was fifth with $4.7 million (I said $5.5 million) with a 65% drop in weekend #2. The total is $23 million.
Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.
This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.
Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.
Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.
The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.
You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)
13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)
16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)
18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Werwulf
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Rami Malek, The Man I Love
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Debut
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)
11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)
12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
Jesse Plemons, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)
14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Long Winter
Best International Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)
3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)
4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Hexed
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Digger, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite,A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood
One of the biggest pieces of the Oscar predicting puzzle came into greater focus today with the review embargo having lifted for Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. The fantasy based on Homer’s ancient epic debuts this weekend with grand box office hopes for Universal. It has long been anticipated to be a major awards player with Matt Damon leading a massive cast that includes (deep breath) Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Samantha Morton, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.
The reported $250 million production is Nolan’s hotly awaited follow-up to 2023’s Oppenheimer. That nearly billion dollar grossing biopic was an Oscar juggernaut with 13 nominations and 7 victories including Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). The Odyssey seeks to become Nolan’s fourth feature in contention for BP joining 2010’s Inception, 2017’s Dunkirk, and the aforementioned Oppenheimer.
Let’s dispense with the drama. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 Metacritic, The Odyssey‘s journey to a Best Picture nomination looks assured and it is a threat to win. Same goes for Nolan’s direction and a number of other categories including Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. That’s 11 noms in the bag already. Makeup and Hairstyling and Original Song (a new tune by Travis Scott and James Blake closes the three-hour experience) are possibilities with the latter perhaps a long shot.
As for the actors, some of my early predictions may have to shift. For weeks, I’ve had Matt Damon on the inside in fifth or on the outside looking in at sixth. That forecast seems accurate though I’m leaning toward him making the cut in what should be a crowded field. Obviously that could change as various works from competitors like Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) are screened. It would be Damon’s fourth acting nod behind Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian if he gets in.
Gunning for her third attempt at gold is Anne Hathaway behind 2008’s Rachel Getting Married and a Supporting Actress victory for 2012’s Les Miserables. The buzz indicates that her supporting work is the most assured of inclusion. I’ve her outside of the top 5 most of the time in the past couple of months. Look for that to change in my next round of predictions this weekend.
As for Supporting Actor, there was some chatter for Robert Pattinson and Tom Holland. If either get in, I’d say Pattinson is more likely than Holland. There’s also lots of love for John Leguizamo, but Universal would need to make a conscientious effort to campaign for him. Same goes for Samantha Morton in Supporting Actress. She’s getting raves. However, her performance is limited to one scene and Hathaway may get the sole push.
In a best case scenario, The Odyssey could surpass Oppenheimer‘s nomination haul and even get in the range of the record-setting 16 that Sinners received last year. I suspect my next projections will give it 13-15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Christopher Nolan’s eagerly awaited epic The Odyssey looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Perched in what has become the bankable filmmaker’s typical mid-July release date, it is the only new picture out wide and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The range for The Odyssey is all over the map for the adaptation of Homer’s tale. On the low end we are talking $80 million while the rosiest expectations have it landing around $130 million. My projection gives it nine digits out of the gate for what should be a healthy summer run.
Holdover family friendly flicks should populate spots 2-4. Disney’s Moana did not have a splashy start (more on that below) and we could see a mid 50s decline to just below $20 million. Animated efforts Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 should follow.
After a subpar premiere, Evil Dead Burn is likely to round out the top five with a hefty decline typical for horror fare.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $106.2 million
2. Moana
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
3. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
5. Evil Dead Burn
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (July 10-12)
A lot of parents and kids sat out the live-action rendering of Disney’s Moana. With mediocre reviews and quiet buzz, the musical adventure starring Dwayne Johnson brought in $43.1 million. With a reported $250 million price tag, that’s a huge letdown for the Mouse Hunt and well under my $54.3 million prediction.
After a less than anticipated rollout over the Fourth of July frame, Minions & Monsters dropped to second with $21.1 million. That’s in range with my $20 million call as Illumination Entertainment’s latest animated comedy declined 43%. The two-week take is $108 million as it is poised to become the lowest grossing domestic earner of the seven Despicable Me/Minions sagas.
Toy Story 5 was third with $19 million, ahead of my $16.2 million forecast. The fifth feature in the Pixar franchise sits at $404 million after four weeks.
Evil Dead Burn was not a hot commodity in fourth with just $13.7 million compared to my generous $21.9 million take. The third entry in this current iteration of Dead series came in well below the mid 20s debuts of its predecessors.
Young Washington proved to be a Fourth of July play with a considerable 64% plummet in its sophomore weekend. At $6.9 million, it failed to reach my $11 million projection. The two-week total is a laudable $33 million for the Angel Studios production.
Finally, Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite expanded nationwide and was sixth with $5.7 million (I said $6.4 million). It has made $7.3 million when factoring in the limited engagements that started a couple weeks back.
All five nominated pictures for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards premiered at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival. So it’s obvious that we look to the 2026’s fest for possibilities at the 99th ceremony. I already wrote about Once Upon a Time in Harlem (which could be a frontrunner) and The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist.
Attention is now turned to The History of Concrete from John Wilson. The host of the HBO docuseries How To with John Wilson, the filmmaker’s feature-length directorial debut has a fascinating concept. Wilson applies lessons learned from a workshop about making a Hallmark movie to attempting a documentary about what the title suggests.
Sundance critics appreciated it to the scores of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic with particular praise going to its comedic aspects. Magnolia Pictures snatched up distribution rights. Academy voters could focus their attention on more serious docs, but Concrete at least has the foundation to be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adapted from Homer’s ancient Greek works, The Odyssey looks to make a lot of dough when it opens July 17th. Undoubtedly one of 2026’s most anticipated releases, Christopher Nolan directs the fantasy action epic with Matt Damon headlining a packed cast. That includes Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Samantha Morton, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.
The first feature to be shot entirely on 70 mm IMAX cameras, showings on those giant screens are already sold out or filling up for the three-hour experience. Nolan’s stock is incredibly high right now. This is his follow-up to the 2023 Oscar juggernaut Oppenheimer which nearly grossed a billion dollars worldwide. No other director is more bankable than him.
With known source material, a spirited marketing campaign, and a plum mid-July release date that Nolan favors (it’s when Oppenheimer, The Dark Knight, and The Dark Knight Rises premiered), that should be a winning combo. Official reviews aren’t out yet, but early word-of-mouth is strong and it’s expected to be a major Oscar contender.
The Odyssey should surpass the $82.5 million that greeted Oppenheimer. I think it can get past $100 million even though I’m not buying the rosiest forecasts of $130 million or so (at least not yet).
The Odyssey opening weekend prediction: $106.2 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 