February 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Don’t count on a super weekend at the box office as horror sequel The Strangers – Chapter 3 and Kevin James headlined dramedy Solo Mio compete with the dog days of the season and the Super Bowl. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

The Strangers – Chapter 3 Box Office Prediction
Solo Mio Box Office Prediction

I don’t see either title toppling Send Help in its second weekend. The Sam Raimi pic had a better than expected start (more on that below) and should see a drop in the high 40s or low 50s.

In the runner-up position, I have Solo edging Strangers in a close race for (non) bragging rights. That said, either could over or underperform.

After another better than anticipated debut, Melania should see a significantly smaller sophomore decline than Iron Lung as they battle it out for the four spot. That’s with a caveat that the doc about the First Lady might be more front-loaded than my estimate.

Here’s how I see the high five shaking out:

1. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

2. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

3. The Strangers – Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Melania

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Iron Lung

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Predictions (January 30-February 1)

As much of the nation dug out from a winter snowstorm, more of them headed to theaters than I figured. Three of the four newcomers easily surpassed my forecasts. Send Help, capitalizing on solid reviews, was tops with $19.1 million compared to my $13.5 million prediction. The B+ Cinemascore is promising for its genre though I still think it falls around 50% this coming weekend.

Gamer based Iron Lung was right behind in second with $18.1 million, blowing past my measly $8 million projection. This is widely anticipated to make the bulk of its cash right away and I’m calling for a sophomore plummet close to 80%. It is still a terrific gross given the reported $3 million price tag.

Melania also exceeded its range with $7.1 million as the political documentary played best between the coasts in third. I went lower at $4.2 million.

Holdovers held up well with Zootopia 2 actually gaining 12% over the previous weekend with $5.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside of my top 6. The ten-week tally is $409 million.

Avatar: Fire and Ash rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $4.9 million). After seven weeks, it has amassed $386 million.

Jason Statham action thriller Shelter was not found by many fans in sixth with $5.5 million compared to my $6.9 million take.

Finally, sci-fi courtroom saga Mercy fell 58% and from 1st to 7th with $4.5 million, in line with my $4.7 million guesstimate. The two-week total is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the seventh movie in the big dance and that’s The Secret Agent from Kleber Mendonça Filho. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another

The Case for The Secret Agent:

Filho’s Brazilian political thriller has become a late bloomer in awards season even though it picked up traction last summer at Cannes where it won Actor (Wagner Moura) and director prizes. Agent was still seen as behind Sentimental Value and It Was Just An Accident in International Feature Film, but then it took the foreign prizes at Critics Choice and the Globes. In addition to BP and the International race, Moura is in for lead Actor and it is up for Casting.

The Case Against The Secret Agent:

Note that in the Case for, I never spoke of it being in serious contention for Best Picture. The four nominations are tied for the lowest of the BP hopefuls with three others. It missed key nods in director and screenplay and other tech categories that usually correlate to a victory. Agent underperformed at BAFTA with only two nominations.

The Verdict:

With Value having an impressive Oscar morning, Agent could fall short in IFF and come up empty-handed at the ceremony. It is not a threat for BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sentimental Value…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the sixth contender – Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed my posts covering the previous five nominees, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme

The Case for One Battle After Another:

Since Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-genre mixup premiered in September, it vaulted to the top of the BP rankings. It impressed with 12 additional nominations – PTA in Director and Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor), Supporting Actor (Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn), Casting, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. The precursor love has been strong already with a Best Film (Musical or Comedy) trophy at the Globes and BP victory at Critics Choice. It’s also in contention for SAG Actor Ensemble and highest honors at BAFTA. This is PTA’s fourth title up for BP (the others being There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza) and there could be a feeling that he’s overdue for recognition after 30 years of critically acclaimed projects.

The Case Against One Battle After Another:

Sinners. The fellow Warner Bros release raised eyebrows with a record-breaking 16 nods. That could be hard for the Academy to discount when voting for BP. There was a notable Oscar miss for Teyana Taylor missing the quintet in lead Actress.

The Verdict:

The day before nominations morning, I would have confidently called Battle for the win. The Sinners showing makes it more of a toss-up.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Secret Agent…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the nominee #5 and that’s Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering the previous four contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet

The Case for Marty Supreme:

Academy voters would be selecting one of the most widely seen nominees (it grossed more than arguable frontrunner One Battle After Another). The sports dramedy amassed a laudable eight additional nods including Safdie’s direction, his Original Screenplay with Ronald Bronstein, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, and Production Design. And of course there’s the nod for Marty himself, Timothée Chalamet, in lead Actor. It has landed BP placement in all noteworthy precursors – the Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, for its ensemble at SAG Actor, and Safdie at DGA.

The Case Against Marty Supreme:

It wasn’t as widely seen as the other arguable frontrunner Sinners. Supreme has yet to get a BP victory anywhere and it was a slight surprise that it missed other acting nominations besides Chalamet (supporting players Gwyneth Paltrow and especially Odessa A’Zion were thought to be possibilities).

The Verdict:

Marty Supreme is reminiscent of Hamnet, my previous Case Of post. It received a bounty of mentions but its best (and probably only) chance at gold is in the lead acting field. For Hamnet, it’s with Jessie Buckley in Actress and with Supreme where the third time could definitely be the charm for Chalamet.

My Case Of posts will continue with One Battle After Another…

Solo Mio Box Office Prediction

Embarking on his Italian honeymoon alone after being left at the altar, Kevin James stars in Solo Mio on February 6th. The dramedy is co-directed by siblings Chuck and Dan Kinnane with a supporting cast including Alyson Hannigan, Nicole Grimaudio, Kim Coates, and Jonathan Roumie.

An Angel Studios release, this is James’s first headlining theatrical vehicle in over a decade (think Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2). Most everything in between has gone the streaming route. Can Solo drive any traffic to theaters? With a reported budget of only $4 million, profitability should be achieved.

I’ll say mid single digits is where it lands though it could manage only lower single digits in a worst case scenario.

Solo Mio opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my The Strangers – Chapter 3 prediction, click here:

The Strangers – Chapter 3 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Wicker

Olivia Colman headlines the irreverent and vulgarly romantic Sundance premiere Wicker from co-directors Alex Huston Fischer and Eleanor Wilson. As a Fisherwoman who builds herself a wooden boyfriend, the supporting cast includes Alexander Skarsgård (as said BF), Peter Dinklage, and Elizbeth Debicki.

Currently seeking distribution, Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with 68 on Metacritic for the bawdy concoction. Three-time nominee and one-time winner Colman (for The Favourite) will probably assist in easily securing a release deal. Oscar attention will be harder to achieve though I do wonder if the Globes could bite in their Musical or Comedy competitions if a legit campaign is mounted. If nothing else, the BAFTAs are a possibility (maybe remote dependent on competition) for Colman. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the fourth nominee – Hamnet from Chloé Zhao. If you missed my posts covering the previous three contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein

The Case for Hamnet:

Arriving five years after Zhao’s Nomadland took home Best Picture, Director, and Actress, the filmmaker hopes to do the same with this gut-wrenching historical drama. Besides BP, it’s up in 7 other races including Director, Actress (Jessie Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costume Design, Original Score, and Production Design. The ensemble is nominated at the SAG Actor awards and it made the BP cut at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Perhaps most significantly, it beat out Sinners in a slight upset for Best Drama at the Golden Globes. 3 out of the last BP Academy winners also featured the Best Actress victor and Buckley is definitely the frontrunner.

The Case Against Hamnet:

Despite some decent arguments in the case for, One Battle After Another and Sinners are still seen as the favorites. Hamnet missed some notable competitions at the Oscars – Cinematography, Editing and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal). Even at BAFTA (where it was expected to fare even better), it wasn’t nominated in Cinematography, Editing, or Casting. The Academy could feel they just honored Zhao.

The Verdict:

Buckley is in good shape unless upcoming precursors change the narrative. The movie itself might be in third when it comes to rankings. Despite the Globe win, I’d say it’s a distant third.

My Case Of posts will continue with fifth nominee Marty Supreme…

Oscar Predictions: Once Upon a Time in Harlem

The easiest prediction to make for the 98th Academy Awards is that the winner of Best Documentary Feature is a Sundance Film Festival premiere. Why? All five nominated titles (The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor) were initially screened at the 2025 Park City event. The year before that, it was 4 of the 5 contending Sundance docs.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem is one you’ll be hearing about. David Greaves directs a project that was started over five decades ago by his late father William (a celebrated filmmaker himself). It focuses on a 1970s gathering of 1920s/30s artists from the NYC neighborhood. Early reviews are raves with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 96 on Metacritic. Called a vitally important historical document, this could be nominated and it may emerge victorious.

Having said that, the documentary branch from the Academy can be a head scratching group to nail down. I only managed 1 for 5 in my forecast for this year’s race. Even with that caveat, it would be shocking if Harlem is not in the conversation for the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Strangers – Chapter 3 Box Office Prediction

The Strangers – Chapter 3 is (naturally) the fifth feature in the nearly two-decade old horror franchise and it opens February 6th. To add more context, it is the culmination of this specific trilogy in the series from director Renny Harlin. Chapter 1 arrived in 2024 with Chapter 2 dropping only four months ago. Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso, Ema Horvath, and Richard Brake star.

In 2008, the first Strangers (as in very first) was a sleeper hit that made $20 million in weekend #1 and $52 million domestically. None of the three follow-ups have matched it. 2018’s The Strangers: Prey at Night barely topped $10 million out of the gate with just under $25 million stateside. Chapter 1 managed nearly $12 million and an overall tally of $35 million. Chapter 2 easily saw franchise lows with a $5.8 million start and $15 million total.

Diminishing returns could certainly continue. I see no valid argument why this would top its predecessor and I’ll put it about a million below.

The Strangers – Chapter 3 opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Solo Mio prediction, click here:

Solo Mio Box Office Prediction

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the third nominee in the biggest race of all and that’s Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. If you missed my posts covering Bugonia and F1, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1

The Case for Frankenstein:

Del Toro’s dream project, arriving eight years after The Shape of Water won BP and director, amassed an impressive nine nominations. Those additional 8 mentions are Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. The Netflix production has shown up in significant precursors including SAG Actor ensemble, Critics Choice, PGA, and the Globes. Del Toro is up at DGA and Elordi won Supporting Actor at Critics Choice.

The Case Against Frankenstein:

There are no Picture wins at the aforementioned precursors and it missed the Best Film quintet at BAFTA. The omission from the Brits confirms that Frankenstein is probably 6th among the contending ten. While the nine nominations are noteworthy, Del Toro missing Director and no nod in Film Editing are significant.

The Verdict:

It’s alive in races such as Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Not in Best Picture.

My Case Of posts will continue with Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet…