Disclosure Day, which returns Steven Spielberg to the extraterrestrial genre, marks the 34th feature from the iconic filmmaker. Of the previous 33, only five failed to receive at least Oscar nomination: 1974’s The Sugarland Express, 1989’s Always, 2004’s The Terminal, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and 2016’s The BFG. That’s one heckuva percentage with the Academy and it’s highly unlikely that Disclosure Day will become the sixth to blank with voters.
Out this weekend, the sci-fi tale reunites the director with his frequent screenwriter David Koepp. Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Wyatt Russell, and Colman Domingo headline the cast. The review embargo is up with an encouraging 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic.
Finding Spielberg back in the blockbuster territory for the first time since 2018’s Ready Player One, this is not as Oscar baity as his last two projects (West Side Story and The Fabelmans). As far as Disclosure‘s Best Picture prospects, the possibility is there under a best case scenario. However, other mass appeal pics like Project Hail Mary (which has probably punched its BP ticket) and the upcoming The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three loom. If it manages to get into BP, Spielberg could follow suit in director. Original Screenplay might be more of a challenge.
It’s no surprise that the film’s strongest chances lie below the line, particularly in Sound and Visual Effects. Then there’s John Williams. Spielberg’s most frequent collaborator could manage an Original Score mention. He would be 95 when the 99th ceremony airs and it would mark his 55th (!) nomination with five victories to his legendary name.
As far as the cast, Firth is getting good ink. Yet it’s Blunt who could make the cut in Best Actress. Competition will clearly be key, but she is being heralded in what some critics are calling career-best work. She is nowhere near as guaranteed to get in as her The Fall Guy costar Ryan Gosling is for Hail Mary, but Blunt definitely has a prayer. If so, it would mark only her second attempt at Academy gold after being up in Supporting Actress for 2023’s Oppenheimer.
Bottom line: Disclosure Day will keep its maker’s popularity with the Academy intact. The number of nominations is the real mystery. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Steven Spielberg’s latest alien tale Disclosure Day looks to open impressively as the only new release in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the legendary filmmaker’s latest here:
With solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign, Spielberg’s return to the extraterrestrial genre will have no trouble topping the charts. I do not, however, think it’ll surpass the anticipated premiere range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. I’m putting it smack dab in the middle of those figures.
The last three Scary Movie flicks have all fallen in the high 50s during their sophomore outings. After a terrific opening (more on that below), I don’t see why the sixth installment wouldn’t do the same and it might even approach 60%.
That could mean Obsession, the little horror movie that could, rises from 4th to 2nd in its fifth weekend assuming it only drops around 10% with current champ Scary Movie dropping to third. I’m estimating that Masters of the Universe and Backrooms see declines in the mid 50s and place fourth and fifth.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Disclosure Day
Predicted Gross: $51.6 million
2. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $22.8 million
3. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $22 million
4. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
4. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
Box Office Results (June 5-7)
Scary Movie reenergized a franchise that had been dormant for 13 years and set a series best start with $54.3 million, besting my $47.5 million projection. The spoof flicks that have been around since the beginning of the 21st century looks good to go for an eventual seventh entry and I doubt a decade plus wait will occur.
Masters of the Universe did not have the power of box office potency in second with $29.4 million, on target with my $29.8 million call. Considering the reported budget approaching $200 million, that’s a weak debut for the second big screen adaptation of the 80s Saturday morning animated show.
Backrooms was third with a considerable but understandable 68% sophomore slide. The low-budget horror hit took in $26.2 million compared to my $30.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is a fantastic $135 million.
Obsession continued its historic run in weekend #4 in fourth with $25.3 million, surpassing my $23.4 million estimate. The really low-budget horror hit grew to $151 million.
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, featuring episodes of the hit web series, rounded out the top five with $12.3 million, in line with my $13.1 million take. Since its Thursday start, the gross is $20.2 million.
The Mandalorian and Grogu, the summer’s most notable disappointment (more than He-Man), was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $11 million). The three-week earnings of $155 million is low for its storied franchise.
Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas (despite decent critical reaction) bombed in 12th with only $1.2 million. I thought it might strike a higher chord at $4.2 million.
Some reviews indicate that Claire Foy and Richard E. Grant might be having more fun than the audience will in Savage House. The 18th century set British black comedy is from writer/director Peter Glanz with a supporting cast including Kila Lord Cassidy, Bel Powley, and Jack Farthing. Out this weekend in limited fashion, the Paramount release was originally slated for late 2024.
With 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, most of the praise is going to Foy (never nominated for an Oscar) and Grant (a 2018 supporting contender for Can You Ever Forgive Me?). Yet the mixed reaction means the Academy is likely to ignore it unless the studio can manage noms that can greet this genre like Costume Design (more likely) and Production Design (less). I wouldn’t bet on it and I doubt the Globes or BAFTAs take notice either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Léa Seydoux was working double duty at the Cannes Film Festival this year with The Unknown (look for that individual post shortly) and the family drama Gentle Monster. The co-production between Austria, France, Germany, and Sweden is the latest feature from Corsage director Marie Kreutzer. Jella Haase, Laurence Rupp, and Catherine Deneuve are among the supporting players.
Both pics for the headlining French actress have the commonality of Seydoux being praised with the film drawing more of a mixed reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is at 59% with the somewhat rare occurrence of Metacritic being higher at 70.
The only feasible awards play is Best Actress. Netflix has reportedly picked up distribution rights. They would need a robust campaign. I would also say Monster needs to pick up steam by playing fall fests and hoping the buzz gets stronger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
John Turturro has had a decades long critically acclaimed career with memorable performances in Do the Right Thing, Miller’s Crossing, Barton Fink, Quiz Show, and O Brother Where Art Thou to name a handful. He has not found a role that has given him an Oscar nomination. Could that change with The Only Living Pickpocket in New York?
The crime thriller debuted in Sundance back in January and made a festival stop in Berlin. Noah Segan directs with Turturro as the title character and a supporting cast including Giancarlo Esposito, Tatiana Maslany, Will Price, Steve Buscemi, Lori Tan Chinn, Karina Arroyave, Victoria Moroles, and Jamie Lee Curtis. Impressive reviews greeted it with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic. Sony Pictures Classics picked up distribution rights with a planned release for the fall. With a robust campaign, Original Screenplay could be a (somewhat remote) possibility. Yet the studio may focus solely on getting Turturro that first shot with the Academy.
On paper, Best Actor is looking crowded with potential heavy hitters like Tom Cruise (Digger), Matt Damon (The Odyssey), and John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) on deck and Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) probably with a reserved slot. However, I wouldn’t discount the overdue narrative helping to get Turturro firmly in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Steven Spielberg is back in familiar alien territory when Disclosure Day opens June 12th. The sci-fi saga centered on extraterrestrial revelations finds the Close Encounters of the Third, E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, and War of the Worlds maker in summer blockbuster mode for the first time in years. Emily Blunt and Josh O’Connor star with Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Colman Domingo, and Wyatt Russell in support. David Koepp, a frequent collaborator of the director who penned Jurassic Park and War of the Worlds, scripts.
The trailers have done a decent job at keeping Spielberg’s wishes to not spoil the plot. The pic’s biggest selling point is indeed the man behind the camera. You can’t say that about many directors though Christopher Nolan certainly comes to mind recently. As mentioned, you have to go back to 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for Mr. Spielberg’s last proper popcorn flick in this season.
Forthcoming reviews could help or hinder the turnout and let’s see if I adjust my figure next week when the buzz is louder. Current estimates have this between $40-$50 million with the possibility of an uptick seeming likelier than the alternative. Considering that many movies are exceeding expectations, I’ll go with the slight over.
Disclosure Day opening weekend prediction: $51.6 million
Masters of the Universe hopes to have the power of box office potency when it debuts this weekend. As I wrote in my financial prediction post, that could be a challenge. This is the second big screen treatment for the animated series and toy line behind 1987’s dud with Dolph Lundgren as He-Man. Nicholas Galitzine takes over the role almost four decades later with Jared Leto as Skeletor. The supporting cast includes Camila Mendes, Alison Brie, James Purefoy, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Kristin Wiig (providing voiceover work), Morena Baccarin, and Idris Elba. Travis Knight, no stranger to adapting 80s material with Bumblebee, directs.
Several critics are being kind and calling it entertaining summer fluff. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 74%. The 53 Metacritic is more indicative of some negative critical reaction as well. The mid 80s Masters actually received a Razzie nomination in Supporting Actor for Billy Barty. The new Masters probably won’t show up there. With Visual Effects as the only remote possibility, I can’t imagine it showing up at the Academy Awards either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.
While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.
The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.
Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?
After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $47.5 million
2. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
4. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
6. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $11 million
Box Office Results (May 29-31)
Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.
Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.
A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.
Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.
Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.
Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.
It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.
Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.
Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.
The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)
15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)
18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hope
Paper Tiger
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Na Hong-jin, Hope
James Gray, Paper Tiger
Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)
13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning
Adam Driver, Paper Tiger
Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)
Bringing IP to the screen that’s been dormant for nearly 40 years, Masters of the Universe hopes to kickstart a new franchise when it debuts June 5th. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon franchise that began in the early 80s, Travis Knight (Bumblebee) directs with Nicholas Galitzine as hero Adam/He-Man and Jared Leto as the villainous Skeletor. The supporting cast includes Camila Mendes, Alison Brie, James Purefoy, Morena Baccarin, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, and Idris Elba. Kristin Wiig provides voiceover work.
While the film has been in development for many years, you have to go back to 1987 to find the first (and last) time these characters appeared in theaters. That was with Dolph Lundgren as He-Man, Frank Langella as Skeletor, and Courteney Cox in the middle of the action. It was a critical and financial dud and the new Masters hopes to avoid the same fate.
There are challenges. First and foremost, younger viewers may not be as familiar with the source material. Older viewers who did watch the animated series decades ago might not be clamoring for the update. The studio is banking on parents and their kids turning out.
Knight exceeded expectations with Bumblebee and Amazon MGM looks for buzz to increase with his latest. I’m still skeptical this meets its somewhat meager expectations in the mid 30s. I’m taking the under for a rocky beginning.
Masters of the Universe opening weekend prediction: $29.8 million
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