99th Academy Awards Predictions: November 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for November sees the contenders in Best Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remaining the same. In the supporting fields, there are two changes to report. In Supporting Actress, I’m putting Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) in over Olivia Colman (Elsinore). However, in Supporting Actor, The Odyssey‘s John Leguizamo falls out in favor of Edward Norton (The Invite).

While Best Actor still has the same quintet, I’m putting John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) back in the top spot and that takes Andrew Scott (Elsinore) down to second. Andrew Garfield (Artificial) makes his inaugural appearance in first in Supporting Actor with longtime #1 Paul Giamatti (The Debut) sliding to the runner-up slot.

There’s a notable development in Original Song. As discussed on the blog previously, Diane Warren is a mainstay in this competition with 17 nominations and zero victories. This year, it was assumed that her title track from the Mark Wahlberg crime drama By Any Means would be her tune in contention. Now another song from Warren has entered the chat via “One Right Here” from another crime drama Maserati: The Brothers. Andrea Bocelli and Jennifer Hudson provide the vocals and that star power has me thinking it’ll be the one nominated.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Debut (PR: 8) (E)

9. All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (E)

10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Elsinore (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Artificial (PR: 13) (E)

14. Digger (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fjord

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Luca Guadagnino, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marion Bailey, Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 6) (-2)

9. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)

5. REDACTED, You Can See Everything (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kate O’Flynn, Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (E)

8. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guy Pearce, Ink

Riz Ahmed, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Artificial (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+3)

7. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Elsinore (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Fjord (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ink

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everytime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Woman Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Tangles (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hoppers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. In Waves (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. You Can See Everything (PR: 1) (E)

2. NAZA (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 5) (+1)

5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. One in a Million (PR: 6) (E)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (+1)

8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (-1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)

10. 14th (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)

9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All of a Sudden

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. You Can See Everything (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Debut (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Artificial

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Wicker (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Clayface (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is God Is

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wildwood (PR: 7) (E)

8. You Can See Everything (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Debut

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. “The City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (E)

4. “One Right Here” from Maserati: The Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)

5. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Saddest Song” from Artificial (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“By Any Means” from By Any Means

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Werwulf (PR: 9) (E)

10. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Whalefall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wildwood (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The End of Oak Street (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Disclosure Day

That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:

15 Nominations

The Odyssey

12 Nominations

The Black Ball

8 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

The Debut, The Invite

5 Nominations

All of a Sudden, You Can See Everything

3 Nominations

Digger, Obsession

2 Nominations

Artificial, Godzilla Minus Zero, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Behemoth!, Being Heumann, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Fjord, Iron Boy, Maserati: The Brothers, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Werwulf, Wicker

Oscar Predictions: Mouse

Coming-of-age drama Mouse premiered way back in February at the Berlin Film Festival and is hitting stateside screens in limited fashion this weekend. It is Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2024 indie community theater flick Ghostlight. Sophie Okonedo, Katherine Mallen Kupferer, Chloe Coleman, Tara Mallen, Beck Nolan, Iman Vellani, and David Hyde Pierce make up the ensemble.

Like their predecessor, Mouse has connected with critics with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and 88 on Metacritic. The IFC release might not get enough exposure to be visible to the Academy. The one potential exception (admittedly a reach) could be Okonedo. Nominated 22 years ago in Supporting Actress for Hotel Rwanda, reviews are calling her performance a stand-out. She’s also received kudos for her lead work in this year’s Clarissa. If critics groups start naming her as their pick for Supporting Actress here, maybe it elevates her moving forward. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

How to Rob a Bank Box Office Prediction

Will Amazon MGM’s How to Rob a Bank make off with decent grosses when it opens November 13th? David Leitch (John Wick, Deadpool 2, The Fall Guy) helms the action comedy with Nicholas Hoult starring. The supporting cast includes Zoë Kravitz, Anna Sawai, Rhenzy Feliz, Pete Davidson, John C. Reilly, and Christian Slater.

Originally slated for September, I’m not convinced audience awareness is where it needs to be to meet expectations. Tracking is said to be between $10-15 million. That’s certainly possible and Leitch has had a number of sizable hits. My gut says to take the under for a subpar performance.

How to Rob a Bank opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million

For my Ebenezer prediction, click here:

Ebenezer Box Office Prediction

Ebenezer Box Office Prediction

Paramount is looking for audiences to be in the Christmas spirit, albeit Gothic holiday spirit, when Ebenezer opens November 13th. Also styled as Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (in case you don’t know it’s based on the Charles Dickens classic), this is a departure for director Ti West. Known for the recent trilogy of X horror flicks (X, Pearl, MaXXXine), the darkly comedic fantasy marks a comeback attempt for Johnny Depp in the title role. After a series of controversies, this is Depp’s most high profile leading role in nearly a decade. Costars include Rupert Grint, Andrea Riseborough, Sam Claflin, Daisy Ridley, Arthur Conti, Ellie Bamber, Henry Lloyd-Hughes, Charlie Murphy, Tramell Tillman, and Ian McKellen.

Reportedly made for just under $40 million, that reasonable price could prove fortuitous as this looks to play throughout the holiday season. The review embargo doesn’t lift until the day before. That’s typically not a positive sign, but it could also avoid any poor word-of-mouth if critics say (you guessed it!) bah humbug.

Estimates have been trickling up past $20 million. The opportunity to exceed expectations is there with a worst case scenario probably in the late teens. I’ll say it does get to over half its budget in the initial weekend.

Ebenezer opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million

For my How to Rob a Bank prediction, click here:

How to Rob a Bank Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Cat in the Hat

Based on the Dr. Seuss 1957 children’s book, Warner Bros is hoping family audiences turn out for The Cat in the Hat this weekend. The animated adaptation arrives 23 years after Mike Myers starred in the critically ballyhooed live-action take. This time around, Bill Hader voices the title character. Other cast members include Matt Berry, Quinta Brunson, Xochitl Gomez, Giancarlo Esposito, and America Ferrera. Alessandro Carloni and Erica Rivinoja direct.

There are plenty of titles vying for attention in Best Animated Feature including Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Ray Gunn, Forgotten Island, Iron Boy, Tangles, Hoppers, and Coyote vs. Acme. Sporting a subpar 47 on Metacritic, any thought of including Cat among those contenders should give you serious pause. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

November 6-8 Box Office Predictions

After October closed out with an expected whimper, four movies hope to kickstart a busy November at multiplexes. Toho sequel Godzilla Minus Zero, animated Dr. Seuss adaptation The Cat in the Hat, Indian action fantasy Ramayana: Part 1, and Martin McDonagh’s black comedy Wild Horse Nine all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction
The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction
Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction
Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

There could be a battle for #1, but in the matchup of Godzilla vs. Hat, I’m giving the giant lizard the advantage. Predecessor Godzilla Minus One from 2023 debuted to $11 million. However, its reputation has grown and anticipation for the follow-up might have it tripling that start in the mid 30s.

The Cat in the Hat hopes to play well over the holiday season. I wouldn’t be shocked if my estimate is a tad high though I am giving it the benefit of the doubt with a premiere just over $30 million.

The biggest question mark is Ramayana: Part 1. Pre-sales are encouraging for the highly priced tagged epic. It opens on Thursday and that should contribute to a front-loaded total. I think it gets past $10 million from Friday to Sunday for a third place showing.

As for Wild Horse Nine, it may only get to lower single digits on around 1000 screens. It’ll hope for awards buzz to keep it in venues moving forward. My $3.9 million figure puts it outside the top five.

Holdover and current champ You Can See Everything should drop to fourth. Wildwood is likely to experience a smaller dip than Clayface and allow the former to be fifth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla Minus Zero

Predicted Gross: $32 million

2. The Cat in the Hat

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

3. Ramayana: Part 1

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

5. Wildwood

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. Clayface

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)

In a Halloween frame where no new titles entered the wide release marketplace, buzzy documentary You Can See Everything vaulted to first after two weeks in second. A24’s Oscar contender took in $11.4 million, below my $12.9 million prediction for a three-week total of $64 million. It is doing numbers that the genre doesn’t do.

Clayface dropped to second with $11 million, under my $13.5 million projection. The DC Universe body horror flick has made $44 million after two weeks. That’s not bad considering the reported $40 million budget.

Laika Animation’s Wildwood eased only 27% in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million, a tad more than my $8 million take. The critically acclaimed stop-motion effort has $27 million in its coffers.

Wicker with Olivia Colman also held impressively with $4.3 million in weekend #2. I was close at $4 million as the ribald comedy has made $13 million.

Street Fighter rounded out the top five with $3.6 million (I said $4 million). The video game adaptation has $53 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

Wild Horse Nine was trotted out at the Venice Film Festival to Oscar buzz and the black comedy from Martin McDonagh opens theatrically November 6th. The writer/director’s follow-up to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin stars John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Tom Waits, Parker Posey, and Mariana di Girolamo.

With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 on Metacritic, Nine is expected to contend for awards noms like the filmmaker’s predecessors. I’m not sure that translates to notable box office figures. 2022’s Banshees was up for nine Academy Awards, but took in just $10 million domestically. One could argue that COVID was still having an effect at that time.

Nine is rumored to have a smallish wide release around 1000 venues next weekend. That’ll temper its numbers and my estimate puts it just under $4 million for starters. It’ll hope for eventual Oscar attention to keep it afloat.

Wild Horse Nine opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million

For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction

For my The Cat in the Hat prediction, click here:

The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction

For my Ramayana: Part 1 prediction, click here:

Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction

With a reported budget of half a billion dollars for part 1 and its sequel, Ramayana: Part 1 hits domestic venues on November 5th hoping to make some impressive figures stateside while earning the bulk of its bucks overseas. The Indian Hindi-language fantasy epic comes from Nitesh Tiwari with a cast including Ranbir Kapoor, Yash, Sai Pallavi, Ravi Dubey, and Sunny Deol. Legendary composer Hans Zimmer shares score duties with A.R. Rahman in the latter’s first contribution to Indian cinema.

Leading into Diwali week, preview sales are encouraging as this looks to place third behind other newcomers Godzilla Minus Zero and The Cat in the Hat. One comparison is 2017’s Baahubali 2: The Conclusion which kicked off with $10 million.

Grosses should be front-loaded for Ramayana and that might apply to the Thursday number (including Wednesday night screenings). I’ll say this gets beyond $10 million for the traditional weekend with mid single digits for Thursday itself.

Ramayana: Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction

For my The Cat in the Hat prediction, click here:

The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction

For my Wild Horse Nine prediction, click here:

Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Everest: The Other Side

Mountain climbing romance Everest: The Other Side played the trio of fall fests (Venice, Telluride, Toronto) prior to its release this weekend. The documentary comes from Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin in conjunction with National Geographic. It arrives eight years after the filmmakers won Documentary Feature at the Oscars for Free Solo. Their non-documentary debut, 2023’s Nyad, scored acting nods for Annette Bening and Jodie Foster.

Everest’s reviews don’t match Solo‘s with a still solid 86% Rotten Tomatoes rating and less enthusiastic 66 on Metacritic. With more acclaimed docs in the marketplace, this faces an uphill climb for Academy voter attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Mosquito Bowl

Recounting a famous gridiron game played during World War II, Peter Berg’s The Mosquito Bowl is in theaters this weekend before its Netflix release over Thanksgiving. Based on the novel by Buzz Bissinger (he also wrote the source material for Friday Night Lights), the cast is led by Nicholas Galitzine, Bill Skarsgård, Ray Nicholson, and Tom Francis.

This is the first Peter Berg directed effort to not star Mark Wahlberg since 2012’s Battleship. The actor turned filmmaker’s efforts have managed some tech category attention from the Academy in the past. 2013’s Lone Survivor was nominated in Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (before the Oscars combined those races into one Sound competition). 2014’s Deepwater Horizon contended for Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

With 40% on Rotten Tomatoes and a matching score on Metacritic, don’t expect Mosquito to bowl over voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…