The People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival is a truly predictive bellwether for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? Thirteen of the past fourteen winners of the Canadian prize have nabbed a BP mention. That extends to sixteen of the last eighteen including the following Academy winners for the highest prize: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. Movies that took People’s Choice and were nominated for BP include Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jojo Rabbit, American Fiction, and last year’s Hamnet. Since 2012, only Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck took the PCA award and did not receive a BP nom from the Academy.

Additionally, the runner-up and second runner-up designation at TIFF is filled with Best Picture winners and nominees in the 21st century. That list includes Juno, Argo, Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, The Power of the Dog, The Holdovers, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Frankenstein.

So… this is kind of a big deal. For six years in a row, two of the three People Choice’s selections from each year were honored with BP mentions from the Academy.

That’s why The Black Ball (La bola negra in Spanish) unquestionably punched its ticket to a Best Picture nod and a chance to emerge victorious. Truth be told, it was there already. The international drama (a near shoo-in winner for International Feature Film in a few months) was TIFF’s top choice. I’ve had it ranked 2nd behind Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for months. An argument can be made (especially now) to rank the Netflix property in first. Don’t be surprised if I still roll with Odyssey but Ball upped its opportunity even more so with today’s annoucement.

Many assumed Ball would get TIFF’s International People’s Choice prize but that surprisingly went to Simon Stone’s Elsinore with Andrew Scott (in what is anticipated to be a Best Actor nominated performance). This is a nice prize for Elsinore‘s chances in BP.

The real intrigue lies with TIFF’s runner-up selections: Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Sian Heder’s Being Heumann. The former was tagged as a crowd pleaser upon its screening though reviews were mixed. The latter is Heder’s follow-up to her Best Picture winning CODA from 2021. If this is the seventh year where two out of three make the Oscar BP cut, I haven’t had either of these in my top ten. The streak could be broken this year, but I’d say Rocky has a better shot than Heumann.

It is worth noting some contenders that didn’t make the top 3 from the festival going voters. Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine were both strong possibilities. I have both in my BP ten and today’s developments are unlikely to take either out. One film that could have benefited more had it been included is Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid. A People’s Choice shoutout would’ve increased its visibility and now I think it might not be a major campaigning priority for A24 (who have other hopefuls to champion).

Bottom line: The Black Ball is rolling and should continue to do so as the season begins in earnest.