While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million, my low to mid 30s projection gives it a second place showing.
The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.
The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.
As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $60.2 million
2. The End of Oak Street
Predicted Gross $32.6 million
3. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
5. The Brink of War
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.
The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.
Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.
Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.
Angel Studios hopes to attract an older crowd with The Brink of War on August 14th. Recounting the Reykjavik Summit of 1986, the political drama casts Jeff Daniels as Ronald Reagan with Jared Harris portraying Mikhail Gorbachev. Michael Russell Gunn makes his directorial debut with the supporting cast including J.K. Simmons as Secretary of State George Schultz and Hope Davis as Nancy Reagan. **Fun fact: this is Davis’s second portrayal of a First Lady as she inhabited Hillary Clinton in 2010’s HBO pic The Special Relationship.
War‘s recounting of a major event in the tenure of America’s 40th President is unlikely to approach Angel’s summer flick about the formative days of the 1st POTUS. Young Washington premiered to nearly $20 million with a shrewd Fourth of July holiday release. This might be lucky to take in a quarter of those debut earnings.
The Brink of War opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million
For my The End of Oak Street prediction, click here
If youngsters aren’t quite ready for the prehistoric creatures inhabiting The End of Oak Street starting August 14th, parents have a more kid friendly option via PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie. The third feature stemming from the Canadian animated series, Cal Brunker returns as director. Among the voice artists are Carter Young, Mckenna Grace, Terry Crews, Jennifer Hudson, Jameela Jamil, Paris Hilton, and Snoop Dogg.
Five years ago, PAW Patrol: The Movie opened while COVID closures were still a reality. It made just over $13 million in its debut with $40 million eventually in its domestic coffers. Two years later, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie fared better with a near $23 million start and $65 million overall. This tale of 65 million year old characters should get closer to Mighty than the original. I’ll say it falls just under $20 million.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million
For my The End of Oak Street prediction, click here:
Warner Bros looks for audiences to travel to The End of Oak Street beginning August 14th. The sci-fi thriller stars Anne Hathaway, Ewan McGregor, Maisy Stella, Christian Convery, and some prehistoric creatures menacing a 1980s suburban neighborhood. David Robert Mitchell, best known for 2014’s acclaimed horror pic It Follows, directs.
Originally slated for May of last year and then spring 2026, the studio is banking on moviegoers making it a late summer blockbuster. Hathaway is suddenly everywhere this year. This is her fourth release since April with another flick coming this fall. Perhaps her exposure from seasonal hits The Devil Wears Prada 2 and The Odyssey will help.
Buzz seems somewhat muted but awareness appears to be picking up. In a best case scenario, the tale of menacing dinos might score $40-45 million. The floor could be $25 million. I’ll say it gets toward the middle of that range in the low to mid 30s.
The End of Oak Street opening weekend prediction: $32.6 million
For my PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie prediction, click here:
A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.
Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.
Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.
Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $153 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $31.6 million
3. One Night Only
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Super Troopers 3
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.
The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.
Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.
Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.
Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.
As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.
There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.
On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.
We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.
You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)
25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
Cry to Heaven
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)
12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)
12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)
7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)
13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Place in Hell
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)
3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)
4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)
7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)
10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rehearsals for a Revolution
Time and Water
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Best Cinemtography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Disclosure Day
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)
10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Black Ball
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Odyssey
TBD from Wildwood
TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Mandalorian and Grogu
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
10 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
9 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Behemoth!, Fjord
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, The Invite
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood
Will Gluck, a veteran of the rom com genre with Easy A and Anyone but You to his credit, directs One Night Only which hits multiplexes on August 7th. The high concept love story stars Monica Barbaro (best known for her Oscar nominated work in A Complete Unknown) and Callum Turner. The eclectic supporting cast includes Maya Hawke, Julia Fox, King Princess, Ben Marshall, Ziwe, Molly Ringwald, and LeVar Burton.
The Universal production seems to be flying under the radar though female audiences could turn out in unexpected numbers. Under no circumstances will this approach the earnings of sleeper hit Anyone but You ($88 million domestic). Night could manage a gross of $10 million plus and hope that word-of-mouth keeps it performing decently throughout August. In the worst case scenario, it could flop like Turner’s Eternity did last November. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where it starts.
One Night Only opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Nearly 25 years ago, Super Troopers from the Broken Lizard comedy troupe became a cult classic comedy. A 2018 sequel performed stronger out of the gate than anticipated and Super Trooper 3 rolls into multiplexes on August 6th. Jay Chandrasekhar returns to direct and star alongside Kevin Heffernan, Paul Soter, Steve Lemme, Erik Stolhanske, Brian Cox, Marisa Coughlan, Nat Faxon, Chace Crawford, Andrew Dismukes, and Hannah Simone.
Just over eight years ago, the first follow-up was estimated to take in under $10 million during its first outing. It managed $15.2 million before losing 75% of its audience during the sophomore frame. Part 2 ended up with $30 million domestically.
While ardent fans of Troopers should turn up, I suspect this one will earn under $10 million though this comedy team has beaten projections before.
Super Troopers 3 opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
Concentrating on a formative year in the mid 1970s for the late chef and travel show host Anthony Bourdain, biopic Tony has a limited theatrical engagement beginning August 7th before nationwide expansion on August 21st. Matt Johnson (BlackBerry) directs with Dominic Sessa in the title role. Costars include Emilia Jones, Dagmara Dimińczyk, Rich Sommer, Stavros Halkias, Leo Woodall, and Antonio Banderas.
Many reviews are praising unconventionality in an often conventional genre with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic. The latter score is more indicative of limited awards prospects. A24 might be more preoccupied with Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Olivia Wilde’s The Invite. Sessa, who garnered acclaim for his big screen debut in 2023’s The Holdovers, is once again getting high marks. However, the distributor would have to really push him in a Best Actor derby that is already looking crowded. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Spider-Man: Brand New Day appears poised to swing the best opening of 2026 when it debuts this weekend. Marking the 38th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth stand-alone Spidey entry starring Tom Holland, Destin Daniel Cretton takes over directorial duties from Jon Watts. Zendaya and Jacob Batalon reprise their roles with MCU regulars Mark Ruffalo as Hulk and Jon Bernthal as The Punisher appearing. Other costars include Sadie Sink, Tramell Tillman, and Michael Mando.
Going back to 2002 when Sam Raimi’s Spidey flick with Tobey Maguire set box office records, the 21st century tales of Mr. Parker have a limited Oscar history. The ’02 version landed Sound and Visual Effects mentions. The 2004 sequel (considered by many to be the strongest of all films featuring the character) won Visual Effects and was up for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Then there was a Spidey drought with 2007’s Spider-Man 3, 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man and its 2014 follow-up (with Andrew Garfield), and Holland’s Spider-Man: Homecoming from 2017 and 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home not receiving any recognition. Predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) got into the Visual Effects derby, losing to Dune.
While there’s been inconsistency during awards season, there’s been plenty of consistency in the reviews for Holland’s quartet. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores are as follows:
Spider-Man: Homecoming: 92% RT, 73 MC
Spider-Man: Far From Home: 91% RT, 69 MC
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 93%, 71 MC
Spider-Man: Brand New Day: 90% RT, 70 MC
Despite the mostly appreciative critical reaction, I expect this to generate no nominations. No Way Home benefitted from a year where there weren’t as many blockbusters with pricey special effects (COVID was limiting theatrical engagements). There are gripes about New Day‘s inconsistent VE. With Project Hail Mary and The Odyssey probably already having two spots locked up and others like Dune: Part Three on the way, my sense is that this goes home empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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