Nearly 20 years ago, Cristian Mungiu’s 4 Months, 3 Weeks and Days won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. For the 80th edition of the Academy Awards, it was a surprise when it wasn’t shortlisted in International Feature Film despite being the Romanian submission. Oscar voters have a chance to honor the filmmaker at the 99th ceremony with his latest Fjord. It received its first look at Cannes.
Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan star in the family drama and early word-of-mouth is strong if not overly effusive in some cases. Rotten Tomatoes is at 94% with 82 on Metacritic. Neon has picked up distribution rights and it looks to contend for IFF with a strong shot at making the cut.
Getting beyond that race is more of a question mark. Under a best case scenario, Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could be in play for Mungiu. Same goes for the lead performances. Reinsve was nominated last year for Sentimental Value for the first time while Stan got his inaugural nod two years back via The Apprentice. I had Reinsve listed #1 in Best Actress in my early ranked posts with Stan third and the film ranked fifth. They could all still be projected next time around, but don’t be shocked if the numbers fall. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Daniel Roher’s 2022 documentary Navalny made waves with Oscar voters by winning the top prize for its genre. The filmmaker ventures into fictional storytelling with the crime thriller Tuner this weekend. Leo Woodall stars as a piano tuner whose skillset brings him into the world of safecracking. Costars include Havana Rose Liu, Lior Raz, Tovah Feldshuh, Jean Reno, and Dustin Hoffman. Out in limited fashion this weekend, Tuner was first screened last fall at the Telluride and Toronto fests.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic, critics are kind to the caper. This doesn’t seem like an awards contender, but an exception could be made if Black Bear Pictures mounts an effective campaign in Best Sound. It’s a major part of the plot and the Academy could reward the sonic design. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
2008’s animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars is the only LucasFilm entry in nearly 50 years that failed to grab at least one Academy Award mention. The other 11 movies – Episodes I-IX, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Solo: A Star Wars Story – have a combined 37 nominations. The Mandalorian and the Grogu could be the second title not to register with Oscar voters.
A continuation of the Disney Plus series, Jon Favreau directs with Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver headlining and Jeremy Allen White providing voiceover work. A number of reviews are claiming it’s an unimpressive feature in the famed franchise with 61% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54 Metacritic. That’s lower than the numbers that greeted Solo in 2018. It received a sole nomination for Visual Effects. That category and Ludwig Göransson’s score might be Grogu‘s only shots at inclusion, but it is entirely possible it won’t be included in ballots at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Mandalorian and Grogu marks the first Star Wars theatrical entry in six years and it should easily rule the Memorial Day weekend charts. We also have horror flick Passenger and Boots Riley’s absurdist comedy I Love Boosters premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
While Mandolarian will certainly have no trouble placing first, the opening could be rather weak by Star Wars standards. I am forecasting that the continuation of the Disney Plus series will fall under $100 million for the four-day and that would be considered an unimpressive start.
Passenger could fall victim to the buzz surrounding fellow scary movie Obsession in its sophomore outing (more on its debut below). I have it outside of the top five.
Same goes for Boosters which could be looking at eighth place in the lower to mid single digits. I’m not convinced that mostly solid reviews will cause it to exceed expectations.
As for holdovers, there could be a close race for second. Current champ Michael might be the safe bet. However, Obsession may not see much of a drop at all in weekend #2 thanks to word-of-mouth and an A- Cinemascore (very high for its genre). In fact, I have it slightly increasing.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Sheep Detectives, and Mortal Kombat II should be 4-6 and here’s how I see the 3-day and 4-day grosses shaking out:
1. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $80.3 million (Fri-Sun); $94.7 million (Fri-Mon)
2. Michael
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (Fri-Sun); $23.9 million (Fri-Mon)
3. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Fri-Sun); $22.9 million (Fri-Mon)
4. The Devil Wears Prada 2
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Fri-Sun); $12.6 million (Fri-Mon)
5. The Sheep Detectives
Predicted Gross: $7 million (Fri-Sun); $8.9 million (Fri-Mon)
6. Passenger
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (Fri-Sun); $7.3 million (Fri-Mon)
7. Mortal Kombat II
Predicted Gross: $6 million (Fri-Sun); $7.2 million (Fri-Mon)
8. I Love Boosters
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million (Fri-Sun); $4.5 million (Fri-Mon)
Box Office Results (May 15-17)
Michael made a return to the top spot in its fourth week with $26.1 million, right on target with my $25.8 million call. The King of Pop biopic has (moon)walked away with $282 million in domestic dollars thus far.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, after two weeks in first, fell to second with $17.8 million. That 57% decline is steeper than my $23 million estimate though it’s grown to $175 million total.
Obsession is the story of the weekend. Budgeted at a reported $1 million and purchased by Focus Features for approximately $15 million, it slayed in third with $17.1 million. That’s well beyond my meager $9.6 million projection as it looks to play well throughout the season.
In fourth, Mortal Kombat II plummeted 65% in weekend #2 to $13.4 million. My prediction? $13.4 million! The martial arts sequel stands at $62 million.
The Sheep Detectives was fifth with $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for a decent two-week tally of $29 million.
Finally, Guy Ritchie’s In the Grey starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal was a dud in ninth with $2.9 million. I was generous at $5.9 million.
Writer/director James Gray is no stranger to the Cannes Film Festival as his latest Paper Tiger is the sixth effort to play the French Riviera. Others include We Own the Night, The Immigrant, and predecessor Armageddon Time. 80s set crime drama Tiger stars Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller with support from Gavin Goudey, Roman Engel, and Victor Ptak.
Most reviews are of the thumbs up variety with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 84 Metacritic. Gray has yet to have his awards breakout despite acclaim for titles including The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra in addition to some of the aforementioned.
Tiger‘s viability is a question mark. It appears to be getting enough critical acclaim, but it’ll be interesting to see how much distributor Neon pushes it. Driver and Johansson (who were both nominated in 2019 for Marriage Story) could contend in Actor and (probably) Supporting Actress as opposed to lead. Johansson’s performance is being singled out as the best and worst aspect of the cast depending on what you read. She’ll hope for enough of the former to grab her third nomination. It’s entirely possible that Paper Tiger fails to register with the Academy though Cannes reaction is giving it a shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma marks Jane Schoenbrun’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2024 effort I Saw the TV Glow. Serving as the premiere feature for the Un Certain Regard section at the Cannes Film Festival, the satirical sendup of 80s slashers is shaping up to be another critical darling. Hannah Einbinder (of Hacks fame) and Gillian Anderson star with a supporting cast including Amanda Fix, Sarah Sherman, Patrick Fischler, Dylan Baker, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Eva Victor, and Jack Haven.
Reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps an even more notable 91 Metacritic. The mainstream appeal for Miasma could be limited, but distributor Mubi has shown their campaigning prowess previously through The Substance. Under a best case scenario, the Academy could notice Anderson’s lauded supporting work and/or the original screenplay. I think this is more likely to resonate with the Gotham Awards or Indie Spirits where Glow shined two years back. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Absurdist crime comedy I Love Boosters hopes to make off with respectable box office grosses on May 22nd. This is Boots Riley’s follow-up to 2018’s acclaimed Sorry to Bother You. The eclectic cast includes Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
The Neon release was first screened at South by Southwest in March to fresh reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes, 73 Metacritic). Debuting over the Memorial Day weekend, the real question is whether this manages to play between the coasts. That could be a challenge.
Budgeted for a reported $20 million, it would exceed expectations if it gets past $5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame. I’m projecting that it will not.
I Love Boosters opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.5 million (Friday to Monday)
For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:
Curry Barker’s Obsession is out this weekend and exceeding expectations at the box office along with its glowing reviews. The horror flick about a granted wish gone horribly awry stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 77 Metacritic. Michael Johnston and Inde Navarrette headline with Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter in the supporting cast.
This is not a genre that has historically performed well with awards voters. However, the Academy has shown a willingness to embrace it under the right circumstances. Obsession sports an A- Cinemascore grade. That’s very high for a scary movie and the first to do so since Zach Cregger’s Weapons. I bring it up because that movie ended up being Amy Madigan’s Oscar-winning Supporting Actress turn just two months ago. I suspect it also came close to an Original Screenplay nomination.
If Focus Features mounts a genuine campaign, I wouldn’t totally discount Navarrette’s chances in Best Actress. Her fatally attracted performance is receiving plenty of kudos as is Barker’s original screenplay. Obsession will not reach the financial heights of Cregger’s work even if it plays well throughout the summer. I wouldn’t count on it ultimately being an awards contender, but Weapons proved it’s a possibility at the previous ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Set in the world of the Parisian health care system, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s latest is All of a Sudden with its generous 196 runtime (making Fatherland‘s 82 minutes seem like a YouTube ad). Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto headline the talky drama with Kyozo Nagatsuka, Kodai Kurosaki, Jean-Charles Clichet, and Marie Bunel in support.
In 2021, Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car (a whole 17 minutes shorter than Sudden) premiered at Cannes to rapturous acclaim. It would end up with four major Oscar noms: Picture, Director, Adapted, and International Feature Film (which it won). 2023’s follow-up Evil Does Not Exist received positive reaction but did not register with the Academy.
Sudden has gone the Cannes route and critics are once again effusive in their praise. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. This could pick up the same four nominations that greeted Car and I’m assuming Japan will pick it as their hopeful in IFF. Reviews indicate this is mostly a two-hander between Efira and Okamoto. Neon, who hold North American distribution rights, will have a decision to make. Efira will likely be in the mix for lead actress. Will Okamoto be campaigned in supporting or alongside her costar? You have to go back to 1991 (Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon in Thelma & Louise) to find the last time two women competed in that category from the same film. That leads to me to think the latter will go supporting and both could get in if Sudden is a BP contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount hopes audiences are in the mood for a scary story to watch in the dark when Passenger arrives in multiplexes on May 22nd. André Øvredal, who directed Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, is behind the camera with Jacob Scipio, Lou Llobell, and Melissa Leo in the cast.
The fright fest boasts an effective trailer and genre fans could turn out over the Memorial Day weekend. However, horror fans have had some options lately and Obsession could still be performing well in its sophomore frame based on word-of-mouth.
A gross above $10 million over the four-day is certainly feasible for its ceiling, but I’m going under.
Passenger opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $7.3 million (Friday to Monday)
For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:
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