Lukas Dhont’s Coward has drawn attention at the Cannes Film Festival. The World War I drama/love story saw its two leads Valentin Campagne and Emmanuel Macchia share a Best Actor prize. This is Dhont’s follow-up to 2022’s Close which was an Oscar nominee for International Feature Film, falling short to All Quiet on the Western Front.
The 100% Rotten Tomatoes score is more balanced by the 68 on Metacritic. Coward‘s most effusive reviews, however, indicate it has a major shot at inclusion in IFF when Belgium likely makes it the submission. An elevation to Best Picture is a reach for the Mubi distributed title. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As a theater actor in the late 80s dying of the AIDS virus, Rami Malek headlines The Man I Love. It premiered at Cannes Film Festival and is the latest drama from Ira Sachs, maker of the Passages and Peter Hujar’s Day. Costars include Tom Sturridge, Luther Ford, Rebecca Hall, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach.
WME Independent is handling stateside distribution likely for this fall. Don’t be surprised if it pops up at future fests (especially New York’s). With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic, critics are appreciative. However, the buzz doesn’t cause me to believe Best Picture is in play and that it’ll be Sachs’s first major awards breakout.
That is with one possible exception. Malek is drawing particular praise in some write-ups saying it’s a career best performance. Eight years ago, he took home Best Actor as Freddie Mercury in the blockbuster Bohemian Rhapsody. Since then, he’s yet to have a follow-up role that the Academy would notice. If WME can run a worthwhile campaign and if competition isn’t too steep, he could be viable for one of the five spots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This year’s Grand Prix prize at the Cannes Film Festival is the political drama Minotaur. Set against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Andrey Zvyagintsev’s latest looks to join previous features Leviathan (2014) and Loveless (2017) as an International Feature Film nominee at the Oscars. The cast includes Iris Lebedeva, Dmitriy Mazurov, Varvara Shmykova, and Juris Zagars.
The reviews are impressive with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 90 on Metacritic. Essentially marking second place at the French festival, two of the last three Grand Prix victors have scored Best Picture nominations (The Zone of Interest and Sentimental Value). Minotaur is a co-production between France, Latvia, and Germany and any of them could submit it for IFF. The filmmaker’s previously nominated pics were Russian submissions and that won’t be the case this time around. With Mubi handling distribution, I would expect a spirited campaign with a solid likelihood of inclusion in the final quintet for foreign feature. Best Picture is possible, but perhaps more of a reach unless this starts to be seen as a frontrunner to win the international race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
StudioCanal’s Pressure hopes to serve as counterprogramming for adult filmgoers when it lands in theaters May 29th. Focused on the lead-up to D-Day, the World War II drama stars Andrew Scott as Captain James Stagg and Brendan Fraser as then General Dwight D. Eisenhower. The supporting cast includes Kerry Condon, Chris Messina, and Damian Lewis.
I’m a little surprised the distributor didn’t opt to open this over the Memorial Day weekend. Perhaps they thought competition was too much. It is reported that the screen count is approximately 1500 next weekend and that’s low for a summer release.
Last year’s Nuremberg debuted on around 1800 and made just shy of $4 million out of the gate. That might be Pressure‘s initial frame is pointed.
Nate Bargatze is one of the best selling stand-ups in the country and Sony hopes his popularity translates to the big screen when The Breadwinner opens May 29th. With a Mr. Mom-ish premise, the comedian stars and cowrites with Mandy Moore, Colin Jost, Zach Cherry, Kumail Nanjiani, and Will Forte in the supporting cast. Eric Appel directs.
This genre is a tough sell at multiplexes over the last few years as many titles go the streaming route. The Breadwinner has the potential to break out thanks to Bargatze’s following. Anything over $20 million should be considered a massive success and teens is respectable. That’s where I have it landing.
The Breadwinner opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
A nearly 160 minute epic spanning decades of gay history in Spain, Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi’s The Black Ball (or La bola negra in its home language) was greeted with an extended ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. Telling three stories interconnected over 85 years, the cast includes singer Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau, Carlos González, Milo Quifes, Lola Dueñas, Julio Torres, Glenn Close, and Penélope Cruz.
Based on an unfinished play by Federico Garcia Lorca, all eyes are on the Cannes jury to see if Ball picks up a major prize later this weekend. The melodrama is being highly praised with many critics calling it a festival standout. Rotten Tomatoes is at 88% with 85 on Metacritic.
This is exactly the type of ambitious project that the Academy could honor in numerous categories including Best Picture and Director (the filmmakers are collectively known as Los Javis). The buzz reminds me of Emilia Pérez when it was unburdened by the controversies that would eventually follow. We probably have our Spanish submission for International Feature Film where this has immediately become a surefire contender. The reaction also indicates this could play in several down-the-line races like Casting, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.
As for the actors, Casting could be seen as a way to honor them all. Quifes seems to be generating particular attention. With Penélope Cruz, her small but memorable part might be remembered in Supporting Actress where she may also be in contention for this summer’s The Invite. Close’s role sounds too minor.
Just this morning, Netflix won the bidding war for Ball‘s release. Expect them to go all out in their campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A24 looks to achieve its largest opening weekend yet when Backrooms arrives on May 29th. Based on his own highly popular web series, Kane Parsons directs the sci-fi horror flick. Chiwetel Ejiofor leads a cast that includes Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell.
With James Wan, Shawn Levy, and Osgood Perkins among the producers, this looks to capitalize on its YouTube source material which boasts nearly 80 millions views. In order to set a record premiere for its distributor, Backrooms would need to top the $27 million that last December’s Marty Supreme started with.
Even though its earnings might be front-loaded, my hunch is that this has a better shot at exceeding expectations than going under them. I think mid to high 30s is doable and that would probably give it the #1 spot over the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu.
Nearly 20 years ago, Cristian Mungiu’s 4 Months, 3 Weeks and Days won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival. For the 80th edition of the Academy Awards, it was a surprise when it wasn’t shortlisted in International Feature Film despite being the Romanian submission. Oscar voters have a chance to honor the filmmaker at the 99th ceremony with his latest Fjord. It received its first look at Cannes.
Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan star in the family drama and early word-of-mouth is strong if not overly effusive in some cases. Rotten Tomatoes is at 94% with 82 on Metacritic. Neon has picked up distribution rights and it looks to contend for IFF with a strong shot at making the cut.
Getting beyond that race is more of a question mark. Under a best case scenario, Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could be in play for Mungiu. Same goes for the lead performances. Reinsve was nominated last year for Sentimental Value for the first time while Stan got his inaugural nod two years back via The Apprentice. I had Reinsve listed #1 in Best Actress in my early ranked posts with Stan third and the film ranked fifth. They could all still be projected next time around, but don’t be shocked if the numbers fall. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Daniel Roher’s 2022 documentary Navalny made waves with Oscar voters by winning the top prize for its genre. The filmmaker ventures into fictional storytelling with the crime thriller Tuner this weekend. Leo Woodall stars as a piano tuner whose skillset brings him into the world of safecracking. Costars include Havana Rose Liu, Lior Raz, Tovah Feldshuh, Jean Reno, and Dustin Hoffman. Out in limited fashion this weekend, Tuner was first screened last fall at the Telluride and Toronto fests.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic, critics are kind to the caper. This doesn’t seem like an awards contender, but an exception could be made if Black Bear Pictures mounts an effective campaign in Best Sound. It’s a major part of the plot and the Academy could reward the sonic design. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
2008’s animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars is the only LucasFilm entry in nearly 50 years that failed to grab at least one Academy Award mention. The other 11 movies – Episodes I-IX, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Solo: A Star Wars Story – have a combined 37 nominations. The Mandalorian and the Grogu could be the second title not to register with Oscar voters.
A continuation of the Disney Plus series, Jon Favreau directs with Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver headlining and Jeremy Allen White providing voiceover work. A number of reviews are claiming it’s an unimpressive feature in the famed franchise with 61% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54 Metacritic. That’s lower than the numbers that greeted Solo in 2018. It received a sole nomination for Visual Effects. That category and Ludwig Göransson’s score might be Grogu‘s only shots at inclusion, but it is entirely possible it won’t be included in ballots at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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