20th Century Studios is hopeful that Whalefall makes a splash at the box office this weekend. Adapted from the 2023 novel by Daniel Kraus and directed by Brian Duffield (the two wrote the script together), Austin Abrams stars as a scuba diver stuck in the belly of a sperm whale. The survival thriller is also a family drama with Josh Brolin as his dad. Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd are among the supporting players.
The review embargo is up and mixed to positive notices have greeted it. “A bit too earnest” seems to be a theme. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 62. It won’t enter the discussion for any major award categories but its tech work could get noticed. Critics are being kind to it practical effects so Visual Effects is a possibility. I suspect it will make the shortlist a couple months down the line. There are heavy hitters in VE including Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Godzilla Minus Zero, and almost certainly the unscreened Dune: Part Three. Plenty of movies could be jockeying for one or at best two slots including this. The same logic applies to Best Sound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A quartet of newcomers step into the box office ring this weekend. Video game adaptation Street Fighter looks to lead the pack while survival tale Whalefall, acclaimed documentary You Can See Everything, and the latest adaptation of Jane Austen’s Sense and Sensibility jockey for position in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Arriving 32 years after the Jean-Claude Van Damme version was a considerable bomb, Street Fighter should fare better with a decent if unspectacular mid 20s start. That should easily give it a first place finish.
Whalefall features Resident Evil lead Austin Abrams stuck in the belly of a sperm whale and I have it logging a so-so fourth place start in the high single digits.
You Can See Everything is the major question mark. It made a splash at the Telluride Film Festival and the covering of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes before she entered prison should generate eyeballs. The challenge is that I’ve yet to see a screen count. My higher single digits estimate could put in anywhere from 2nd to 4th depending on the Other Mommy drop.
Jessica Chastain’s horror flick opened in line with expectations (more on that below) but poor reviews and a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade could spell a mid to high 60s percentage decline in weekend #2.
Sense and Sensibility doesn’t seem to have significant buzz and my mid single digits take should have it rounding out the top six just behind Verity‘s third frame.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
2. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
3. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Whalefall
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
5. Verity
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
6. Sense and Sensibility
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (October 9-11)
Audiences were hungry for horror despite a critical drubbing as Other Mommy brought in $27.8 million, on pace with my $27.2 million prediction. As mentioned, even with genre fans craving scares, this should fade quickly.
Verity dropped to second with $12 million, just under my $13.1 million call. The thriller with Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson eased 63% for a two-week total of $54 million.
Resident Evil was third in its fourth frame with $8.5 million compared to my $7.8 million projection. This video game adaptation grew to $138 million.
Heart of the Beast took fourth with $7.4 million (I said $6.6 million) as the Brad Pitt survival tale hit $50 million after three weeks.
Finally, Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning tanked in fifth with $5 million. Taking in just a quarter of what 2010 predecessor The Social Network achieved out of the gate, the tech drama couldn’t match my $7.4 million number.
In the two weeks that have gone by since my last update, the New York and London Film Festivals have given us our first looks at Behemoth!, Artificial, Wildwood, and Ray Gunn. We also had the dismal box office openings and mixed critical reaction for Digger and The Social Reckoning.
So what’s the verdict? Artificial has moved up in my estimation, especially for Andrew Garfield in Supporting Actor where it was recently confirmed he would be placed. Behemoth!, despite some decent buzz, falls out of Best Picture with Elsinore jumping into the BP ten for the first time. The Elsinore bump extends to Andrew Scott who rises to #1 in Best Actor.
Wildwood solidifies itself as the Animated Feature frontrunner with Ray Gunn probably faring well enough to make the quintet of nominees (though not a threat to win).
The Social Reckoning is likely DOA. Digger is more complicated. Yes, the reviews were decidedly all over the place. Yet the actors branch may choose to reward Tom Cruise for his work and, frankly, for taking a giant creative swing. He had moved out of my Best Actor quintet several weeks ago, but now he’s back in at the expense of Robert Pattinson (Primetime).
You can read all the movement below and my next update will be in approximately two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+2)
6. The Debut (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Elsinore (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (E)
12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)
13. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Possible Love (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Digger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (+1)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3.Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (E)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 6) (-4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Club Kid
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Fatherland (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Everytime (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (E)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hoppers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions & Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In Waves
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 5) (-1)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)
8. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. 14th (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Nuisance Bear
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael
The Invite
Digger
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-4)
10. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime
Digger
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wicker (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rose (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Bride! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wildwood (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Didn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write A Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Too Muck to Ask” from Ray Gunn
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Werwulf
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Whalefall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Sheep Detectives
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, The Invite
3 Nominations
Digger, Elsinore, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Disclosure Day, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Fatherland, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Werwulf, Wicker, You Can See Everything
Ever since its surprise premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, Nathan Fielder and Primetime director Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything has been picked up considerable buzz that could translate to impressive box office numbers (especially for its genre). The A24 release finds the filmmakers deeply involved in documenting the life of Theranos founder and convicted swindler Elizabeth Holmes as she awaits her prison stay and beyond.
Clocking in at nearly three hours, Everything is one of 2026’s most acclaimed titles at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 97 on Metacritic. It is rolling out in limited fashion this Friday, October 16th. A theater count has yet to be published which makes a projection tricky.
Everything appears to be playing indie venues and select AMC locations. My local indie theater’s showtimes this coming weekend are filling up quickly while the AMC showings have better availability. With some pundits predicting it could be the first doc to receive a Best Picture nomination, the curiosity factor should be high.
The largest non-concert documentary opening belongs to 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 at nearly $24 million. I don’t believe this challenge that, but the second best is Chimpanzee with $10.6 million. In a best case scenario, Everything might achieve that figure or slightly more.
My forecast could fluctuate once I see a count. For now, I’ll put it a little under $10 million.
You Can See Everything opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million
Stop-motion indie animation studio Laika is 5 for 5 when it comes to nominations for Best Animated Feature and 0 for 5 in podium trips. Each time they have lost to Disney. In 2009, Laika’s inaugural project Coraline went down to Up. Three years later, ParaNorman fell short to Brave while 2014’s The Boxtrolls couldn’t beat out Big Hero 6. In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings didn’t catch Zootopia. Missing Link in 2019 was an honorable mention to Toy Story 4.
That dynamic may finally change in 2026. Travis Knight, who directed Kubo, is back with the studio (months after the live-action Masters of the Universe debacle) via Wildwood. The dark fantasy, based on a 2011 novel, has premiered at the London Film Festival and arrives theatrically on October 23rd. Voiceover artists include Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant.
For the last several weeks on the blog, I’ve had Wildwood listed at #1 in Animated Feature based mostly on hunch. There’s also the matter of Disney’s Toy Story 5 and Hoppers not seeming like win contenders. Early WOM from London encourages my notion. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with several reviews calling it Laika’s strongest entry thus far. I would be surprised if it didn’t remain my frontrunner in the animated field moving forward.
Can Wildwood branch out elsewhere? The short answer is yes. A solid campaign could open up Adapted Screenplay or Visual Effects. The score is being complimented and the Decemberists have an original song titled “The Better Part of Bravery”. I also could see this being a lone Animated Feature player and the first that gets past the Mouse House. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Since Best Animated Feature became a category at the Oscars in 2001, Brad Bird is 3 for 3 in terms of nominations and 2 for 3 in terms of wins. His tenure with Disney/Pixar led to victories for 2004’s The Incredibles and 2007’s Ratatouille while 2018’s Incredibles 2 was in contention but fell short to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. His debut, 1999’s The Iron Giant, would have certainly been up had the competition existed.
Bird’s latest is Ray Gunn and it has premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its December 4th limited theatrical release and December 18th Netflix bow. Said to be the filmmaker’s dream project, the sci-fi noir mystery features the voices of Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Waits, Matt Berry, Bobby Cannavale, Michelle Rodriguez, Matt Jones, Aasif Mandvi, Alan Tudyk, and Kathryn Hunter.
Word-of-mouth across the pond gives Gunn a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. A closer look at the write-ups reveal plenty of recommendations with reservations. Bird’s first effort in nearly a decade should have enough goodwill to get in the Animated Feature quintet, but I’m skeptical that a win narrative exists. There’s another London premiere that does have that narrative and its Oscar Prediction post is imminent.
Netflix will campaign the song “Too Muck to Ask” (performed by Johansson in the pic) in Original Song and Michael Giacchino is behind the score. Both are worth considering if they manage to make their respective shortlists though I’ve yet to seriously consider either for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility is the latest update to Jane Austen’s 215-year-old novel and it arrives stateside on October 16th. The director’s follow-up to the acclaimed British debut Blue Jean, Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles lead the cast with supporting turns from Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw.
The romantic drama is the first major retelling of the source material since Ang Lee’s rendering in 1995 with Emma Thompson and Kate Winslet. It was an awards hit with seven Oscar noms including Best Picture. The box office was strong with just over $40 million domestically and $135 million worldwide.
While reviews are respectful for Oakley’s take, they’re not as glowing as what preceded it three decades ago. Rotten Tomatoes is at 78% with 72 on Metacritic. This is not expected to be a significant Oscar player and that could have assisted with increased word-of-mouth.
I imagine the most dedicated Austen faithful will turn up and that could mean mid single digits.
Sense and Sensibility opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million
Love of Your Life is Oscar nominated cinematographer Rachel Morrison’s second directorial effort behind 2024’s The Fire Inside. The romantic drama premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last month and is currently in limited release prior to its Amazon Prime bow on October 14th. The cast is led by Margaret Qualley, Aaron Pierre, Patrick Schwarzenegger, Gabriel Basso, and Catherine Keener.
The film, like Fire, generated a mostly muted response upon its festival premiere. Reviews are respectful but far from glowing with 76% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. Awards voters should greet this similarly to the Toronto crowd with ambivalence. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Fresh off his role fighting zombies in the blockbuster video game adaptation Resident Evil, Austin Abrams deals with a different dangerous creature in Whalefall starting October 16th. The survival thriller features Abrams as a scuba diver trapped in the belly of a sperm whale. Based on the novel by Daniel Kraus, Brian Duffield directs with Josh Brolin, Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd in the supporting cast.
Buzz seems encouraging for the whale tale and this could be a word-of-mouth sleeper. In a best case scenario, it could approach the $20 million that Heart of the Beast premiered with. I suspect the combo of Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd could be far more potent. I’ll say a high single digits to possibly low digits start is where this lands as it hopes for staying power in subsequent frames.
Whalefall opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
It can be said that four of Ben Affleck’s previous five directorial efforts attracted awards attention. His 2007 debut Gone Baby Gone received a Supporting Actress nod for Amy Ryan while 2010’s follow-up The Town saw Jeremy Renner nab a supporting mention. 2012’s Argo was the Best Picture winner in addition to Adapted Screenplay and Editing victories (though Affleck was not up for his directing). Four years later, Live by Night was a critical and commercial failure that is the outlier as far as Oscar prospects. While 2023’s Air didn’t end up with any noms, it was in the conversation for some.
Affleck’s sixth behind the camera effort Animals is out with a limited theatrical engagement (I guess for Academy eligibility) this weekend along with a Netflix streaming bow. The crime thriller stars Affleck, Gillian Anderson, Kerry Washington, Steven Yeun, Luis Gerardo Méndez, and Adriana Paz.
Critical reaction is even softer than what greeted Live by Night. Rotten Tomatoes is at 35% with Metacritic at an even worse 31. The review embargo didn’t lift until hours before it was available to millions of Netflix viewers. That was a big hint that Animals chances in the awards conversation were DOA and that’s been proven true. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
