Ethan Hawke, fresh off his third acting Oscar nod for Blue Moon, headlines the 1930s set survival drama The Weight. Directed by Padraic McKinley and scheduled for domestic release in September, it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and has also played Berlin. Costars include Julia Jones, Austin Amelio, and Russell Crowe.
Plenty of reviews are praising this as an old-fashioned yarn with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 70 on Metacritic is more indicative of positive write-ups expressing some reservations. A lot of the kudos are going to Hawke’s performance.
Indie outlet Vertical picked up distribution rights. This is not a company who’ve successfully played much in the awards campaigning space. They’ll need to up their game for Hawke to be in contention for a back-to-back nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Atlanta and Joker star Zazie Beetz gets a headlining role in They Will Kill You on March 27th. The horror comedy debuted at South by Southwest and is directed and cowritten by Kirill Sokolov. Set at a hotel with its set of literal demons, the supporting cast includes Myha’la, Paterson Joseph, Tom Felton, Heather Graham, and Patricia Arquette.
Fans of the genre have had plenty to feast on lately via Scream 7 and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come the prior weekend. Reviews thus far give it a reassuring 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. I do struggle to sense any breakout potential. High single digits might be its ceiling, but I’m inclined to think mid single digits with a gross similar to last year’s Death of a Unicorn.
They Will Kill You opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
Power Ballad is the latest musical dramedy in the genre that Irish filmmaker John Carney specializes in. Slated for a June 5th stateside bow, the Lionsgate release features Paul Rudd as a wedding singer who scores an unexpected hit via a fading boy band star (Nick Jonas). The supporting cast includes Peter McDonald, Marcella Plunkett, Haley Rose Liu, and Jack Reynor. Months before the summer premiere, it has been screened this month at the Dublin International Film Festival and South by Southwest.
Carney is best known for 2007’s Once with follow-ups including Begin Again and Sing Street. It sounds like he might have another crowdpleaser on deck. Ballad has scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 82% on Metacritic. Some reviews are calling it one of Rudd’s strongest performances.
While awards prospects are likely limited, both Once and Begin Again landed Original Song noms at the Oscars. The song at the center here is “How To Write a Song (Without You)” and it could be a track worth monitoring several months down the line. If Lionsgate puts up a decent campaign in Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes (where Sing Street vied for Best Motion Picture), both the movie and Rudd could contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (03/19): Upping my Project Hail Mary prediction from $59 million to $69 million and adding Dhurandharthe Revenge to the #5 spot at $7.8 million.
Amazon MGM space adventure Project Hail Mary looks to dominate the box office this weekend while Searchlight searches for horror fans to boost Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With high star reviews, Mary appears poised for an impressive showing out of the gate (it will need it with the reported $200M+ budget). My prediction has it reaching nearly $60 million as it hopes for a long run in the coming weeks.
Barring a significant overperformance, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come should place third in low double digits behind the third frame of current champ Hoppers.
The remainder of the top five should go to holdovers Reminders of Him in its sophomore frame (more on its solid performance below) and Scream 7.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $69 million
2. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
3. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Dhurandhar The Revenge
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
6. Scream 7
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (March 13-15)
As anticipated, Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers stayed in 1st place while newcomers managed to outdo my projections. Hoppers made off with $28.6 million, just ahead of my $27.2 million prediction. The two-week earnings jumped to $86 million.
Reminders of Him, the romantic drama based on the Colleen Hoover novel, came in at the high end of expectations with $17.9 million in second. That’s well beyond my $10.4 million call. Look for it to drop in the high 40s in its second week.
Low-budget Canadian horror pic Undertone was third with $9.3 million. Like Reminders, it started out at the top of its expected range and past my meager $4.9 million take. I do think it will drop out of the top 5 this weekend with a percentage dip in the high 50s or more.
Scream 7 was fourth with $8.5 million, ahead of my $6.9 million forecast for a three-week tally of $106 million. It will match the $108 million take of its 2023 predecessor this week.
Goat rounded out the top five with $4.6 million (I said $4.3 million) as the animated sports tale is nearly at nine digits with $90 million.
Finally, The Bride! plummeted 70% in weekend #2 with just $2 million. I was more generous at $2.6 million. The two-week total for the WB flop is $11 million.
After months of pontificating and countless posts on what might happen, the 98th Academy Awards are in the rearview with one movie being the clear winner. That’s One Battle After Another from Paul Thomas Anderson. PTA, with three decades of giving us great movies, went into the evening 0 for 11 in previous ceremonies. He is now a three-time Oscar recipient with Battle collecting six of its thirteen nominations.
Overall I went 16 for 21 in my picks. It was a night of no major upsets. For the six categories I got wrong, my runner-up emerged victorious. And, yes, I whiffed on the big one. I thought Ryan Coogler’s Sinners might squeak by with a slightly surprising victory. That Best Picture honor went to the favored Battle.
I correctly forecasted PTA’s latest for Director, Supporting Actor (a no-show Sean Penn becoming just the eighth thespian to nab 3 acting gold statues), and Adapted Screenplay. Yet Battle‘s gains were losses for Sinners elsewhere in my projections. I had Sinners taking Film Editing and Casting but it was Battle.
In Cinematography, I went with Battle and the Academy rolled with Sinners. This provided some history with Autumn Durald Arkapaw becoming the first female to win that prize. Sinners would take home three more awards which I predicted – Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor in a contest where Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was the frontrunner until the past couple of weeks, Original Screenplay, and Original Score. There’s little doubt that Sinners was #2 in ballots for BP.
Here’s where I else I got it right and we’ll start with the obvious. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) made it clean sweep for Best Actress. Sentimental Value is your International Feature Film with KPop Demon Hunters grabbing Animated Feature and Original Song (“Golden”).
Frankenstein was successful in its trio of tech races (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design). F1 placed first in Sound with Avatar: Fire and Ash making it three in a row for James Cameron’s franchise in Visual Effects.
Where I got it wrong is my Sinners coattails caused me to predict Wunmi Mosaku, but it was Critics Choice and SAG Actor winner Amy Madigan (Weapons) in Supporting Actress. Her podium trip comes 40 years after her first nomination for Twice in a Lifetime. BAFTA documentary winner Mr. Nobody Against Putin is now the top Oscar doc over The Perfect Neighbor.
Fun fact regarding precursors: the Golden Globes only matched this year’s Oscars in the acting races at a 1 for 4 margin (Jessie Buckley only). SAG Actor? 4 for 4.
As for the ceremony itself? Conan O’Brien is a solid host though his material seemed to be stronger last year. The show (no surprise here) was a bit of a slog. The highlight might have been the dignified In Memoriam with tributes to legends lost in the past 12 months including Rob Reiner, Diane Keaton, and Robert Redford.
For those keeping score, here’s the final victory tally:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Sentimental Value, Weapons
The 98th Academy Awards will be known for PTA finally getting one Oscar after another after another. Keep an eye on the blog as speculation will soon begin on the 99th…
It might be Oscar weekend, but it’s also time for South by Southwest which is premiering numerous movies and TV shows. The Austin fest isn’t really a breeding ground for eventual Academy fare though 2022’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once did kick off there.
SXSW is known more for showcasing odder and independent spirited movies. The Oscar bait usually saves itself for Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Nevertheless Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is an eagerly awaited title that served as opening selection.
This is the rapper and political activist turned filmmaker’s sophomore feature after his acclaimed 2018 debut Sorry to Bother You. The satire centers on a group of shoplifters boasts an eclectic cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
Early buzz indicates Riley has another critical hit with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Reviews also infer that it’s far out there similar to Bother. Perhaps Original Screenplay could be in play at the Oscars, but this might be more tailored to the Independent Spirit Awards or the Gothams (two ceremonies where Riley’s inaugural effort showed up). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
On the eve of the 98th Academy Awards, let’s ponder what five would have done so at the 97th. One is for certain. We know that Sean Baker’s Anora has a reserved slot. It won five out of six awards it was up for – Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less clear. Here’s my best speculation.
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama scored ten nods and won three for Adrien Brody’s lead performance, Original Score, and Cinematography. Other nods went to the director, Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and it can certainly be argued that it was second in the BP voting.
A Complete Unknown
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet landed a laudable eight nominations – BP, Director, Actor, Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. It was one of two BP nominees that went home empty-handed.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I don’t think it’s automatic but yes. Despite the 0 for 8 tally, the fact that it made the directing five puts it over the edge.
Conclave
Edward Berger’s drama about the search a new Pope also landed eight mentions with the others coming in Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. It won for the script.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Like Unknown, not automatic but I’m going with yes because of the screenplay victory.
Dune: Part Two
The Denis Villeneuve sequel managed five nominations with two victories in Sound and Visual Effects and at bats for Cinematography and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That handful is nods is only half of what the 2021 predecessor achieved and Villeneuve’s omission is telling.
Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard’s crime musical easily led the ceremony with 13 nominations. There were victories in Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña) and Original Song. Other noms were for directing, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, another Original Song, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. As you may recall, Gascón’s controversial comments likely sunk the pic’s chances at International Feature Film where I’m Still Here would emerge. However, at the time of the nominations, I feel Pérez still would’ve made it in the top half of contention.
I’m Still Here
The Brazilian political drama from Walter Salles was the beneficiary of Emilia backlash when it took the IFF prize. It was also up for Actress (Fernanda Torres).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Even with the late breaking international prize, the three noms are second lowest of the lot.
Nickel Boys
RaMell Ross’s drama is the only pic with two nominations with the other coming in Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and the question was pretty much answered above.
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat was nominated for director in her wild anti-aging body horror saga that won Makeup and Hairstyling and was up for Actress (Demi Moore) and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
This was the toughest one to leave off, but no. I’d have it sixth. Had Moore received Best Actress, it might be a different story.
Wicked
With 10 noms, the adaptation of the acclaimed Broadway musical won Costume Design and Production Design. It additionally made the ballot for Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Sound, and Visual Effects.
Does It Make the Final Five?
The case could certainly be made, but I’m going no. No direction or screenplay inclusions make the call a bit easier.
That means my 2024 final five consists of the alphabetically top heavy:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The 98th Academy Awards air tomorrow and down the line, I’ll give you my top 5 for that show!
Fox Searchlight looks for horror fans to make a return engagement with Ready or Not 2: Here I Come on March 20th. Combining laughs with gore, Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett return to this scary franchise after making a detour rebooting the Scream series. Samara Weaving is back headlining with a new supporting cast including Kathryn Newton, Sarah Michelle Gellar, Shawn Hatosy, David Cronenberg (!), and Elijah Wood.
Back in late summer 2019, the eat the rich first edition made $8 million in its opening frame ($11 million over the five-day as it debuted on a Wednesday). It held up decently for its genre with $28 million domestically. I’m a little unsure if audiences are clamoring for a sequel. Unlike the recent Scream 7, I don’t look for this to exceed expectations.
I’ll say this gets beyond $10 million for starters though not by much.
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
Project Hail Mary looks to throw down impressive grosses for Amazon MGM when it debuts March 20th. Drew Goddard adapts Andy Weir’s 2021 novel with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directing. The sci-fi adventures stars Ryan Gosling with a supporting cast including Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub.
Critics have complimented the production on its Spielberg vibes with Rotten Tomatoes at 95% and 80 on Metacritic. With a reported budget north of $200 million, the studio is hoping for a high launch. Encouraging early word-of-mouth should assist.
One scenario is that it plays similar to 2015’s The Martian which is also based on a Weir book. That space tale with Matt Damon opened to $54 million. A best case might be closer to $80 million, but I’ll hedge and say high 60s is likelier.
Project Hail Mary opening weekend prediction: $69 million
For my Ready or Not 2: Here I Come prediction, click here:
Canadian horror flick Undertone was made for a teensy reported budget of $500k with the A24 pickup arriving in theaters this weekend. It marks the directorial debut Ian Tuason with Nina Kiri and Adam DiMarco starring.
While its distributor hopes to turn a nifty profit considering the price tag, Undertone is worthy of an Oscar Predictions post for one specific reason. While the 78% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 67 Metacritic are fine, Undertone‘s plot centers on paranormal noises and other auditory aspects.
That raises the possibility of this scoring a Sound nomination. The question is whether the Academy’s voters remember it. That might depend on A24’s campaign. The biggest challenge might be making the shortlist of ten for consideration. Heavy hitters such as The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three loom. If Undertone does get named among the ten, a spot in the top five seems likely. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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