Oscar Predictions: Being Heumann

Five years ago, Sian Heder’s Apple TV dramedy CODA achieved “little movie that could” status by winning all three Oscars it was nominated for – Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur), and Adapted Screenplay. Focused on a teen growing up in a deaf family, the film beat out heavyweights including The Power of the Dog and Dune in the biggest race of all. Heder’s follow-up is Being Heumann and it serves as the opening night selection for the Toronto Film Festival. It has a theatrical release on November 6th before streaming on Apple the following week.

Ruth Madeley stars as activist Judith Heumann in the 1970s set true story about achieving rights for the disabled. The supporting cast includes Mark Ruffalo, Dylan O’Brien, Rob Delaney, and Ray Fisher. With a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 Metacritic, scores are actually similar to CODA‘s (94% RT, 72 MC). Yet I’m not convinced that Heder’s latest will be a contender in BP unless its crowdpleaser status gets it there. If so, another Adapted Screenplay nod could occur.

There are, however, some races where it has a better shot. Best Casting is a possibility. Many performers in the ensemble are part of the community whose rights are focused on. I could see it making the cut in Casting without any other noms.

In Best Actress, Julianne Moore (The Debut) and arguably Inde Navarrette (Obsession) and Olivia Wilde (The Invite) appear to be holding punched tickets. Madeley is generating great notices in the central role and I wouldn’t count her out. I’m not sure I’ll have her in the final five in my next update (out Sunday), but she might rank higher than 10th. That’s where I had her listed in my latest update at the end of August. On the other hand, Ruffalo has been listed as a possibility in my 15 Supporting Actor slots (last time in 13th position). Toronto WOM indicates he’ll be a non-factor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: NAZA

Two years after No Other Land won Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars, filmmakers Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor could be in contention again for NAZA. Shot in Tel Aviv during the ongoing Gaza war, it premiered in Venice and will also play the New York Film Festival.

While I normally don’t mention the length of standing ovations at screenings, it’s worth noting that NAZA appears to have the longest one in Venice’s history at 24 minutes. Critical acclaim is high with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 96 Metacritic. NAZA joins Once Upon a Time in Harlem, American Doctor, and You Can See Everything as the likeliest docs to make the Academy’s cut and a threat to win. I’ll also note that the doc branch is capable of shocking omissions in past years but NAZA seems like a title that won’t miss. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Oasis: Don’t Look Back in Anger

Oasis: Don’t Look Back in Anger is out in theaters after premiering at the Venice Film Festival. The documentary from Will Lovelace and Dylan Southern takes us behind the scenes for the reunion and tour of brothers Noel and Liam Gallagher’s legendary band (a reunion considered by most to be unfathomable before it happened).

Anger is slated to be available on Hulu/Disney+ later in the year. Critics are being kind with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and 79 on Metacritic. As I’ve written about many times on the blog, celeb focused docs face an uphill battle for the Academy’s recognition. Don’t count on the documentary branch to look back on this and include it in their five contenders. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Resident Evil Box Office Prediction

Adapted from the video games that kicked off 30 years ago, Resident Evil is rebooted for the second time on the big screen starting September 18th. It has the advantage of being directed by Zach Cregger. His Barbarian was a critical favorite in 2022 followed by the massive box office success ($150 million) of Weapons last year. Austin Abrams (who memorably appeared in Weapons) stars alongside Zach Cherry, Kali Reis, and Paul Walter Hauser.

Starting in 2002, Milla Jovovich headlined six Evil entries. The top opener was #4, Resident Evil: Afterlife and it took in $26 million for starters. Three others (parts 2, 3, 5) managed $20M+ out of the gate. However, audiences weren’t checking in by part 6 (The Final Chapter) which premiered with $13 million.

2021’s reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City brought the pics to new lows with a debut just north of $5 million and $17 million overall stateside (both easy franchise lows). The tide should turn here in major fashion for the action horror series.

In a best case scenario, Cregger’s participation and a hunger from genre fans for fresh product could not only set an Evil best for opening weekends. That shouldn’t be an issue. This has the possibility of grossing $60M+ from Friday to Sunday and that would be more in three days than any Evil movie has made domestically in total. I think mid 50s is where it lands but don’t be too afraid to consider the over.

Resident Evil opening weekend prediction: $55.8 million

Oscar Predictions: A Long Winter

Andrew Haigh has been a critics darling over the past decade plus with 45 Years, Lean on Pete, and All of Us Strangers. He’s yet to have a major Oscar breakout (though Charlotte Rampling was up in Actress for 45 Years). His latest is the coming-of-age drama A Long Winter which premiered at Telluride and soon moves to the Toronto and New York fests. Fred Hechinger, Kit Connor, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitriona Balfe, and D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai make up the ensemble.

With Metacritic at 79, reviews are respectful but I don’t think they go far enough for this to contend in Best Picture. Hechinger and Balfe are receiving decent notices. However, Winter‘s only shot seems to be in Cinematography and I’m not convinced a major campaign will be mounted for it to sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Uprising

Paul Greengrass directed movies have occasionally resonated with the Academy from a Best Picture nom for 2013’s Captain Phillips to a directing nod for 2006’s United 93 to tech recognition for 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum, 2020’s News of the World, and last year’s The Lost Bus.

The Englishman’s latest project is the 14th century set period drama The Uprising starring Andrew Garfield and featuring Jamie Bell, Stephen Dillane, Tom Hollander, Cosmo Jarvis, Thomasin McKenzie, Woody Norman, and Katherine Waterston. The Focus Features project is out this weekend where it’s expected to struggle at the box office.

It’s also unlikely to resonate with awards voters. Rotten Tomatoes is at 54% with a 53 on Metacritic. I’m skeptical it even gets serious consideration (and may not make shortlists) for down the line categories that are friendly to the genre (Production Design, Sound, Costume Design). The Uprising faces an uphill battle. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Musk

Does Musk smell like an Oscar contender? The documentary is bound to be one of the higher profile genre entries of 2026 with Alex Gibney directing a near four hour look at Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a lightning rod for controversy.

It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and was a bit overshadowed by the unexpected debut of You Can See Everything, another buzzy doc that made a splash at Telluride. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 77 on Metacritic.

Gibney’s Taxi to the Dark Side was the Documentary Feature victor in 2007 and he has helmed numerous acclaimed flicks on the big and small screen. Musk could definitely get in the five nominated docs, but I think it’s less likely than others like Once Upon a Time in Harlem and the aforementioned Everything.

Musk could miss Documentary Feature and still get into Original Song where David Byrne has written and sung the track “Let Me Sell You a Dream”. The former Talking Heads frontman is an Academy recipient for his score to 1987’s The Last Emperor and was nominated four years back in Original Song for “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Spidey’s reign atop the box office charts looks to end this weekend with the release of Practical Magic 2. We also have the South Korean sci-fi action epic Hope and period action drama The Uprising out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Practical Magic 2 Box Office Prediction
Hope Box Office Prediction
The Uprising Box Office Prediction

Reuniting Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman 26 years after their witchy original, Practical Magic 2 has a nostalgia factor and an appeal to a female audience that could mean an impressive start. My high 40s projection gives it (unadjusted for inflation) more in its first frame than the 1998 original made in its entire domestic run.

Hope is a wild card as the South Korean release boasts the widest opening from its country since 2019’s Parasite. The Wednesday bow has me thinking it’ll manage a fifth place start over the traditional weekend with nearly $10 million over the five-day.

My hunch is that The Uprising from Paul Greengrass and starring Andrew Garfield will struggle. Out on a smallish 1500 reported screens, my mid single digits estimate should mean a premiere just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Spider-Man: Brand New Day may still manage double digits as it finally moves to the runner-up spot while The Odyssey and Coyote vs. Acme should be third and fourth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Practical Magic 2

Predicted Gross: $43.5 million

2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

4. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. Hope

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. The Uprising

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

Capping off a fruitful summer, the Labor Day weekend was a winner for the MCU as Spider-Man: Brand New Day put up $23.7 million from Friday to Monday. That’s right on pace with my $23 million prediction with the juggernaut hitting $923 million after six weeks. It is now just $13 million away from the all-time domestic record of $936 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That record looks to fall in the coming days.

The Odyssey was once again #2 with $17.2 million, eclipsing my $14.8 million projection. Christopher Nolan’s all-time largest earner grew to $588 million after eight weeks.

Coyote vs. Acme held up impressively in third for its sophomore outing with $16.1 million compared to my $13.2 million call. The tally is $38 million for the live-action/animated hybrid that nearly didn’t see the light of day.

The holiday weekend’s top grossing newcomer was By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg. The crime thriller was fourth with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.8 million forecast.

Disney/Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-release of Cars rounded out the top five with $8 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the top half of the chart.

Insidious: Out of the Further placed sixth and also took in $8 million (I said $7.5 million). The horror sequel has scared up $55 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Bunker

Florian Zeller had an Oscar hit right out of the gate with his debut 2020 feature The Father. Nominated for six Academy Awards including Best Picture, it would win Zeller an Adapted Screenplay trophy (adapting his own play) as well as Anthony Hopkins taking home Best Actor. It received a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. The filmmaker’s 2023 follow-up The Son with Hugh Jackman? 28%.

That’s the definition of a sophomore slump and lots of curiosity greets third pic Bunker. It has screened at the Venice Film Festival prior to its anticipated release later this year. The psychological drama stars real life spouses Penélope Cruz and Javier Bardem with support from Stephen Graham, Paul Dano, and Patrick Schwarzenegger. The RT score sits at a middling 55% and 46 Metacritic. The MC number is only one point above The Son.

In other words, Bunker‘s Oscar chances equal Zeller’s predecessor at non-existent. For Cruz, she will likely be walking the red carpet next year anyway with a supporting nod for either The Invite or The Black Ball (or both based on a fresh rule change). Her husband has more of an outside shot in lead Actor for The Beloved. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: You Can See Everything

The Telluride Film Festival was abuzz with word that a nearly three hour documentary screening would be unveiled yesterday from A24. That doc turned out to be You Can See Everything from Canadian comedian Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim (also doing the fest circuit for directing Primetime).

In Everything, the filmmakers are granted access to Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she begins serving an 11 year prison sentence for fraud. While Holmes’s story and legal activity has been covered in an HBO doc and in the acclaimed limited series The Dropout with Amanda Seyfried, Everything received kudos at Telluride. It promises to be one of the highest profile docs of 2026 when it comes out in October.

The early WOM and anticipated wide exposure could certainly mean it grabs one of the five slots in Best Documentary Feature. I will warn that this branch of the Academy can be unpredictable. I’m not sure Everything is ahead of my current frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Harlem and perhaps not others like American Doctor. I am sure that it has one of the creepiest teasers I’ve witnessed that isn’t a horror flick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…