99th Academy Awards Predictions: October 12th Edition

In the two weeks that have gone by since my last update, the New York and London Film Festivals have given us our first looks at Behemoth!, Artificial, Wildwood, and Ray Gunn. We also had the dismal box office openings and mixed critical reaction for Digger and The Social Reckoning.

So what’s the verdict? Artificial has moved up in my estimation, especially for Andrew Garfield in Supporting Actor where it was recently confirmed he would be placed. Behemoth!, despite some decent buzz, falls out of Best Picture with Elsinore jumping into the BP ten for the first time. The Elsinore bump extends to Andrew Scott who rises to #1 in Best Actor.

Wildwood solidifies itself as the Animated Feature frontrunner with Ray Gunn probably faring well enough to make the quintet of nominees (though not a threat to win).

The Social Reckoning is likely DOA. Digger is more complicated. Yes, the reviews were decidedly all over the place. Yet the actors branch may choose to reward Tom Cruise for his work and, frankly, for taking a giant creative swing. He had moved out of my Best Actor quintet several weeks ago, but now he’s back in at the expense of Robert Pattinson (Primetime).

You can read all the movement below and my next update will be in approximately two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+2)

6. The Debut (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Elsinore (PR: 14) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (E)

12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)

13. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Possible Love (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Digger

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (+1)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (E)

5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 6) (-4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Club Kid

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Being Heumann (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Fatherland (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Everytime (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (E)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hoppers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Minions & Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

In Waves

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. One in a Million (PR: 5) (-1)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)

8. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)

10. 14th (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Nuisance Bear

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael

The Invite

Digger

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-4)

10. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Primetime

Digger

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wicker (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rose (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Bride! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wildwood (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Didn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write A Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Too Muck to Ask” from Ray Gunn

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Debut

Werwulf

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Whalefall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Sheep Detectives

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

15 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, The Invite

3 Nominations

Digger, Elsinore, Obsession

2 Nominations

Artificial, Disclosure Day, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Fatherland, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Werwulf, Wicker, You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

Ever since its surprise premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, Nathan Fielder and Primetime director Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything has been picked up considerable buzz that could translate to impressive box office numbers (especially for its genre). The A24 release finds the filmmakers deeply involved in documenting the life of Theranos founder and convicted swindler Elizabeth Holmes as she awaits her prison stay and beyond.

Clocking in at nearly three hours, Everything is one of 2026’s most acclaimed titles at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 97 on Metacritic. It is rolling out in limited fashion this Friday, October 16th. A theater count has yet to be published which makes a projection tricky.

Everything appears to be playing indie venues and select AMC locations. My local indie theater’s showtimes this coming weekend are filling up quickly while the AMC showings have better availability. With some pundits predicting it could be the first doc to receive a Best Picture nomination, the curiosity factor should be high.

The largest non-concert documentary opening belongs to 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 at nearly $24 million. I don’t believe this challenge that, but the second best is Chimpanzee with $10.6 million. In a best case scenario, Everything might achieve that figure or slightly more.

My forecast could fluctuate once I see a count. For now, I’ll put it a little under $10 million.

You Can See Everything opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million

For my Street Fighter prediction, click here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

For my Whalefall prediction, click here:

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

For my Sense and Sensibility prediction, click here:

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Wildwood

Stop-motion indie animation studio Laika is 5 for 5 when it comes to nominations for Best Animated Feature and 0 for 5 in podium trips. Each time they have lost to Disney. In 2009, Laika’s inaugural project Coraline went down to Up. Three years later, ParaNorman fell short to Brave while 2014’s The Boxtrolls couldn’t beat out Big Hero 6. In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings didn’t catch Zootopia. Missing Link in 2019 was an honorable mention to Toy Story 4.

That dynamic may finally change in 2026. Travis Knight, who directed Kubo, is back with the studio (months after the live-action Masters of the Universe debacle) via Wildwood. The dark fantasy, based on a 2011 novel, has premiered at the London Film Festival and arrives theatrically on October 23rd. Voiceover artists include Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant.

For the last several weeks on the blog, I’ve had Wildwood listed at #1 in Animated Feature based mostly on hunch. There’s also the matter of Disney’s Toy Story 5 and Hoppers not seeming like win contenders. Early WOM from London encourages my notion. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with several reviews calling it Laika’s strongest entry thus far. I would be surprised if it didn’t remain my frontrunner in the animated field moving forward.

Can Wildwood branch out elsewhere? The short answer is yes. A solid campaign could open up Adapted Screenplay or Visual Effects. The score is being complimented and the Decemberists have an original song titled “The Better Part of Bravery”. I also could see this being a lone Animated Feature player and the first that gets past the Mouse House. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ray Gunn

Since Best Animated Feature became a category at the Oscars in 2001, Brad Bird is 3 for 3 in terms of nominations and 2 for 3 in terms of wins. His tenure with Disney/Pixar led to victories for 2004’s The Incredibles and 2007’s Ratatouille while 2018’s Incredibles 2 was in contention but fell short to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. His debut, 1999’s The Iron Giant, would have certainly been up had the competition existed.

Bird’s latest is Ray Gunn and it has premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its December 4th limited theatrical release and December 18th Netflix bow. Said to be the filmmaker’s dream project, the sci-fi noir mystery features the voices of Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Waits, Matt Berry, Bobby Cannavale, Michelle Rodriguez, Matt Jones, Aasif Mandvi, Alan Tudyk, and Kathryn Hunter.

Word-of-mouth across the pond gives Gunn a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. A closer look at the write-ups reveal plenty of recommendations with reservations. Bird’s first effort in nearly a decade should have enough goodwill to get in the Animated Feature quintet, but I’m skeptical that a win narrative exists. There’s another London premiere that does have that narrative and its Oscar Prediction post is imminent.

Netflix will campaign the song “Too Muck to Ask” (performed by Johansson in the pic) in Original Song and Michael Giacchino is behind the score. Both are worth considering if they manage to make their respective shortlists though I’ve yet to seriously consider either for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility is the latest update to Jane Austen’s 215-year-old novel and it arrives stateside on October 16th. The director’s follow-up to the acclaimed British debut Blue Jean, Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles lead the cast with supporting turns from Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw.

The romantic drama is the first major retelling of the source material since Ang Lee’s rendering in 1995 with Emma Thompson and Kate Winslet. It was an awards hit with seven Oscar noms including Best Picture. The box office was strong with just over $40 million domestically and $135 million worldwide.

While reviews are respectful for Oakley’s take, they’re not as glowing as what preceded it three decades ago. Rotten Tomatoes is at 78% with 72 on Metacritic. This is not expected to be a significant Oscar player and that could have assisted with increased word-of-mouth.

I imagine the most dedicated Austen faithful will turn up and that could mean mid single digits.

Sense and Sensibility opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million

For my Street Fighter prediction, click here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

For my Whalefall prediction, click here:

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

For my You Can See Everything prediction, click here:

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Love of Your Life

Love of Your Life is Oscar nominated cinematographer Rachel Morrison’s second directorial effort behind 2024’s The Fire Inside. The romantic drama premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last month and is currently in limited release prior to its Amazon Prime bow on October 14th. The cast is led by Margaret Qualley, Aaron Pierre, Patrick Schwarzenegger, Gabriel Basso, and Catherine Keener.

The film, like Fire, generated a mostly muted response upon its festival premiere. Reviews are respectful but far from glowing with 76% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. Awards voters should greet this similarly to the Toronto crowd with ambivalence. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

Fresh off his role fighting zombies in the blockbuster video game adaptation Resident Evil, Austin Abrams deals with a different dangerous creature in Whalefall starting October 16th. The survival thriller features Abrams as a scuba diver trapped in the belly of a sperm whale. Based on the novel by Daniel Kraus, Brian Duffield directs with Josh Brolin, Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd in the supporting cast.

Buzz seems encouraging for the whale tale and this could be a word-of-mouth sleeper. In a best case scenario, it could approach the $20 million that Heart of the Beast premiered with. I suspect the combo of Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd could be more potent. I’ll say a low double digits to possibly low teens start is where this lands as it hopes for staying power in subsequent frames.

Whalefall opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million

For my Street Fighter prediction, click here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

For my Sense and Sensibility prediction, click here:

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

For my You Can See Everything prediction, click here:

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Animals

It can be said that four of Ben Affleck’s previous five directorial efforts attracted awards attention. His 2007 debut Gone Baby Gone received a Supporting Actress nod for Amy Ryan while 2010’s follow-up The Town saw Jeremy Renner nab a supporting mention. 2012’s Argo was the Best Picture winner in addition to Adapted Screenplay and Editing victories (though Affleck was not up for his directing). Four years later, Live by Night was a critical and commercial failure that is the outlier as far as Oscar prospects. While 2023’s Air didn’t end up with any noms, it was in the conversation for some.

Affleck’s sixth behind the camera effort Animals is out with a limited theatrical engagement (I guess for Academy eligibility) this weekend along with a Netflix streaming bow. The crime thriller stars Affleck, Gillian Anderson, Kerry Washington, Steven Yeun, Luis Gerardo Méndez, and Adriana Paz.

Critical reaction is even softer than what greeted Live by Night. Rotten Tomatoes is at 35% with Metacritic at an even worse 31. The review embargo didn’t lift until hours before it was available to millions of Netflix viewers. That was a big hint that Animals chances in the awards conversation were DOA and that’s been proven true. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction

Paramount looks for Street Fighter to kick off with impressive earnings beginning October 16th. Based on the video game series that started nearly 40 years ago, it arrives 32 years after the Jean-Claude Van Damme version was a box office flop. Kitao Sakurai, best known for making the 2021 Eric André hidden cam comedy Bad Trip, directs. The cast includes Noah Centineo, Andrew Koji, Callina Liang, Roman Reigns, David Dastmalchian, Cody Rhodes, the filmmaker’s buddy Eric André, Andrew Schulz, Vidyut Jammwal, Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson, and Jason Momoa.

I definitely think this will fare better than what greeted Mr. Van Damme in 1994. Originally slated for March, video game adaptations have become a financially potent genre lately with examples including the Super Mario and Sonic pics, A Minecraft Movie, and, most recently, Resident Evil. The best comp might come from earlier this year via Mortal Kombat II and its $38.5 million debut. That’s probably the ceiling and I have Fighter behind in the upper 20s instead of high 30s.

Street Fighter opening weekend prediction: $28.5 million

For my Whalefall prediction, click here:

Whalefall Box Office Prediction

For my Sense and Sensibility prediction, click here:

Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

For my You Can See Everything prediction, click here:

You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Social Reckoning

In 2010, David Fincher’s The Social Network was an awards powerhouse with 10 nominations including Best Picture, Director, and Jesse Eisenberg in Actor (it would lose all three to The King’s Speech). It did emerge victorious for its Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Original Score. Fincher and Eisenberg are not involved in the sequel The Social Reckoning which releases this weekend. Network‘s writer Aaron Sorkin returns in that role and in the director’s chair. Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White, Bill Burr, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, and Billy Magnussen lead the cast with Jeremy Strong taking over from Eisenberg as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.

With the review embargo having lifted just a day before its theatrical debut, it seems like Reckoning will not resonate with awards voters. Rotten Tomatoes is at 70% with Metacritic only at 50. Madison and Strong are getting by relatively unscathed (the same cannot be said for Sorkin’s script according to several critics). However, I don’t see Madison (in her first role since her Oscar-winning lead performance in 2024’s Anora), Strong, or anyone else generating much chatter for their work. A nominee two years ago for The Apprentice, I’ve had Strong listed in my Supporting Actor possibilities in the top 10 for months (though not as a nominee). There’s a good chance he drops out of contention altogether. I’m struggling to see Social getting in anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…