Halloween is typically a quiet time at the box office and that should play out in 2026 with it falling on a Saturday. There are no significant wide releases other than Christmas at the Kringles. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for the Briarcliff release. The comedic horror flick is slated to release on approximately 1800 screens and I don’t think it’ll make enough cash (maybe $2 to $2.5 million) to place in the top five.
That leaves holdovers for what could be a close contest between current champ Clayface and You Can See Everything, which has held the runner-up spot for two weeks in a row. I have the former dropping in the mid 40s with the latter easing in the mid 30s.
After kicking off on the higher end of its expected range, Wildwood should remain in third with Street Fighter and Wicker in a battle for fourth and fifth position. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
2. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (October 23-25)
Sporting a reported $40 million budget (certainly small for the DC Universe), Clayface made $24 million for a slightly better debut than my $22 million prediction. The R-rated comic book adaptation’s results are alright considering the price tag as it hopes viewers will keep coming during the Halloween frame.
A24’s acclaimed doc You Can See Everything expanded wide and was second with $19.5 million. I went a little higher at $23.8 million though it can boast a better per theater average than Clayface. The probable Oscar contender has amassed $45 million.
Laika Animation’s Wildwood capitalized on rave reviews in third with $12.2 million. That’s still not great when factoring the $100 million plus budget, but it’s stronger than the lower forecasts including my own at $7.2 million.
Video game adaptation Street Fighter was knocked down from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million. That’s a whopping 72% plummet and under my $11.6 million projection. The two-week total is $46 million.
Wicker with Olivia Colman and Alexander Skarsgård built a commendable female following in fifth with $5.7 million. I went with $4.9 million.
Jessica Chastain’s horror pic Other Mommy was sixth with $3.9 million. My guess? $3.9 million! The three-week tally is $51 million.
Seventh place went to Sense and Sensibility as the Jane Austen adaptation made $3.3 million, not matching my $4.2 million call. The ten-day gross is an underwhelming $13 million.
Whalefall sunk to eighth in frame #2 with $3 million (I said $3.7 million). The whale tale is also at $13 million.
Last (and least), Taika Waititi’s Klara and the Sun had a dark debut in 15th (!) with just $701,000 and an average of under $800 per venue. Oof. I said it would do $2.3 million.
Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything has done the kind of box office numbers that documentaries simply don’t do unless it is Fahrenheit 9/11 from 22 years ago. The unconventional look at Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes as she prepares for prison and the aftermath has become a water cooler experience for audiences.
When I did my last predictions update two weeks ago, I did not have Everything listed in my top 15 possibilities for Best Picture. A lot has changed. It now sits at #3. Along with The Odyssey and The Black Ball, I believe a win narrative is present. Fielder and Oppenheim also make their appearance (in third) in the directing quintet. The film rises from #2 to #1 in Documentary Feature. I have it down for an Editing nod and it could get into Cinematography and Original Score.
The Everything love also extends to the acting categories. Due to the doc’s nature, I will not spoil who I’m predicting for a Supporting Actress nomination. Those who’ve seen the pic will understand. That will likely change soon but I’ll be kind enough to put a spoiler alert for readers who haven’t seen it.
Everything‘s rise in Picture takes out Elsinore while Fielder and Oppenheim’s ascension in Director drops Ryusuke Hamaguchi (All of a Sudden). She who shall not be named in Supporting Actress has Lola Dueñas from The Black Ball on the outside looking in. While Dueñas falls, her costar Guitarricadelafuente makes his first appearance in Supporting Actor. That removes Edward Norton (The Invite) from my five in what would be seen as a rather major snub.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (E)
10. Obsession (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Elsinore (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)
13. Artificial (PR: 13) (E)
14. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (-2)
15. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Possible Love
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (E)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. REDACTED, You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+2)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Possible Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ink (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Possible Love (PR:4) (E)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Everytime (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hoppers (PR: 8) (E)
9. In Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (+1)
2. NAZA (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 6) (E)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (+1)
9. 14th (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
When a Witness Recants
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+2)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 6) (-2)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)
9. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I Play Rocky (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicker (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rose (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Clayface (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wildwood (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: 10) (+1)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Artificial
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “The City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Saddest Song” from Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Backrooms (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 7) (E)
8. Whalefall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wildwood (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)
8. Whalefall (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Sheep Detectives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The End of Oak Street
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Three
6 Nominations
The Debut, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite, You Can See Everything
3 Nominations
Digger, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Elsinore, Michael, Rose, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Behemoth!, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Disclosure Day, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Werwulf, Wicker, Wildwood
Nuisance Bear won the Grand Jury Prize for documentaries at the Sundance Film Festival back in January and now A24 is distributing it stateside in Los Angeles in November with a New York release in December. Documenting the migration of polar bears in Canada, the festival crowdpleaser is directed by Gabriela Osio Vanden and Jack Weisman. It adapts their 2021 short film into a feature-length experience.
The truncated version from five years ago made the shortlist for the genre’s category, but didn’t place among the five eventual nominees. The longer Bear has 97% on Rotten Tomatoes though the 65 on Metacritic demonstrates some reserved reactions. As far as Sundance docs that took the Jury Prize, only 2021’s Summer of Soul (which won) and 2024’s Porcelain War have made the quintet in recent years.
Nuisance could make the shortlist too though I’m skeptical it makes the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The latest DC Comics entry veers into full R rated body horror mode via Clayface which opens Friday. James Watkins directs the gory tale with Tom Rhys Harries in the title role and Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan providing support.
With 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic, Clayface is generating varied critical responses. This is not seen as an Oscar player for Warner Bros/DC with a notable exception. Those body horror effects could be rewarded in the Makeup & Hairstyling category. Recent ceremonies have seen the genre become more a player in that race with The Substance winning in 2024 and The Ugly Stepsister landing a nom last year. This could certainly make the contending quintet while a victory is likely out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (10/21): I didn’t do an individual post for Wicker with Olivia Colman, but with the news that it is debuting on over 1400 screens, my $4.9 million puts it in fifth place on my chart.
Clayface from the DC Universe was, until very recently, expected to easily rule the box office charts this weekend. That may be challenged from a previously unanticipated source. We also have Laika Animation’s critically acclaimed Wildwood and Taika Waititi’s far from acclaimed sci-fi dramedy Klara and the Sun starring Jenna Ortega premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Clayface could gross high teens for a floor to possibly mid to high 20s in the best case scenario. My estimate puts it right in the middle of the range in the low 20s. That’s far from impressive but not too shabby considering its reported $40 million budget.
As mentioned, that figure was thought to be enough to give it bragging rights at #1. Then You Can See Everything happened. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about imprisoned Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes exceeded all expectations with a sizzling #2 debut on 855 screens (more on its opening below). It is slated to grow to around 2600 venues this weekend. I think the word-of-mouth could mean a low to mid 20s output in its sophomore frame. That means I’m giving it the edge for the top spot.
Wildwood, despite glowing reviews, may fall under $10 million for a fourth place start. As for Klara, my meager $2.3 million guesstimate might mean it struggles to even make the top 10.
Current champ Street Fighter should be third with a low 60s percentage fall while holdovers Sense and Sensibility, Whalefall, and Other Mommy all post similar grosses.
Here’s how I see it all shaking out:
1. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $22 million
3. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
6. Sense and Sensibility
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
7. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
8. Whalefall
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Video game based Street Fighter kicked off in line with expectations at $30.7 million for first, managing to outdo my $24.5 million take. I look for it to fade quickly.
A24 nailed down the second highest non-concert documentary opening in history behind 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with You Can See Everything. With over $18k per screen, the doc (which no one knew existed until it surprise screened at Telluride) was runner-up with $15.6 million. That’s well beyond my $8.9 million prediction as its future looks rosy.
Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.2 million (a 70% plummet) compared to my $9.1 million call. The horror flick with Jessica Chastain sits at $44 million after two weeks.
Survival tale Whalefall flopped in fourth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2 million projection. Mixed reviews helped sink it.
Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with a respectable $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.3 million forecast. The latest Jane Austen adaptation may hold up fairly in subsequent weekends.
Finally, Verity was sixth with $6 million (I said $5.9 million) as the romantic thriller brought its three-week tally to $65 million.
Taika Waititi’s latest dramedy is Klara and the Sun and it’s out October 23rd. Based on the Kazuo Ishiguro 2021 novel, Jenna Ortega stars in the sci-fi tale with Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne providing support.
After its premiere at the London Film Festival, negative word-of-mouth start peeking out. Sun now sports a 25% Rotten Tomatoes score with 27 on Metacritic. This will struggle mightily to find an audience. There is little hope this will approach the $33 million domestic gross that greeted the filmmaker’s awards player Jojo Rabbit in 2019.
My forecast puts this in line with Waititi’s 2023 predecessor Next Goal Wins. The soccer tale also whiffed with critics and underperformed with a mere $2.5 million in its opening. I don’t see a compelling argument for Sun eclipsing it.
Klara and the Sun opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Stop-motion animated fantasy Wildwood is the latest effort for distributor Laika and their first this decade. Directed by Travis Knight, the voice cast includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant. Following its premiere at the London Film Festival, it hits domestic screens on October 23rd.
Critics are on it side and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature prize at the Oscars. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 86 on Metacritic. Laika’s projects are typically acclaimed and all five previous features have been Academy nominated in its genre category. That hasn’t always translated to box office dollars stateside.
In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings (also directed by Knight) debuted with $12.6 million and that’s under what predecessors Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls started off with. That trio all premiered between $14-17 million. The last Laika tale, 2019’s Missing Link, was a major commercial failure with $5.9 million out of the gate.
I’m expecting Wildwood to do better, but not much better.
It’s been seven years since Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit was an Academy favorite with an Adapted Screenplay win for the filmmaker and five other noms including Best Picture. His follow-ups have been Thor: Love and Thunder (one of the MCU’s lower rated entries) and soccer flick Next Goal Wins which was met with a shrug.
Klara and the Sun, based on Kazuo Ishiguro’s 2021 novel, is his latest. The futuristic sci-fi dramedy stars Jenna Ortega with a supporting cast including Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne. It premiered at the London Film Festival with stateside distribution set for October 23rd.
Critics are taking a dim look at Sun. Rotten Tomatoes is at 27% with Metacritic even worse at 25. Judging from some reviews, this could end up on Worst of 2026 lists. Some write-ups are sparing Ortega from the incoming, but this will not be contending at any awards shows other than perhaps the Razzies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Clayface is not your typical DC Universe flick and it might not reach the numbers of most other entries in the franchise. The R-rated thriller containing elements of body horror comes from director James Watkins with Tom Rhys Harries as the title character. Costars include Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan.
It’s been a rough year for Warner Bros and DC was part of that with the massive underperformance of Supergirl. It opened to a less than expected $38 million and was heavily front-loaded with just $72 million domestically. Guesstimates aren’t as high for Clayface and it only sports a $40 million budget compared to Supergirl‘s (at least) $170 million.
Unless this picks up steam in the coming week, low to mid 20s is the likely result.
20th Century Studios is hopeful that Whalefall makes a splash at the box office this weekend. Adapted from the 2023 novel by Daniel Kraus and directed by Brian Duffield (the two wrote the script together), Austin Abrams stars as a scuba diver stuck in the belly of a sperm whale. The survival thriller is also a family drama with Josh Brolin as his dad. Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd are among the supporting players.
The review embargo is up and mixed to positive notices have greeted it. “A bit too earnest” seems to be a theme. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 62. It won’t enter the discussion for any major award categories but its tech work could get noticed. Critics are being kind to it practical effects so Visual Effects is a possibility. I suspect it will make the shortlist a couple months down the line. There are heavy hitters in VE including Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Godzilla Minus Zero, and almost certainly the unscreened Dune: Part Three. Plenty of movies could be jockeying for one or at best two slots including this. The same logic applies to Best Sound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
