Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility is the latest update to Jane Austen’s 215-year-old novel and it arrives stateside on October 16th. The director’s follow-up to the acclaimed British debut Blue Jean, Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles lead the cast with supporting turns from Caitriona Balfe, Frank Dillane, Herbert Nordrum, George MacKay, and Fiona Shaw.
The romantic drama is the first major retelling of the source material since Ang Lee’s rendering in 1995 with Emma Thompson and Kate Winslet. It was an awards hit with seven Oscar noms including Best Picture. The box office was strong with just over $40 million domestically and $135 million worldwide.
While reviews are respectful for Oakley’s take, they’re not as glowing as what preceded it three decades ago. Rotten Tomatoes is at 78% with 72 on Metacritic. This is not expected to be a significant Oscar player and that could have assisted with increased word-of-mouth.
I imagine the most dedicated Austen faithful will turn up and that could mean mid single digits.
Sense and Sensibility opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
Love of Your Life is Oscar nominated cinematographer Rachel Morrison’s second directorial effort behind 2024’s The Fire Inside. The romantic drama premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last month and is currently in limited release prior to its Amazon Prime bow on October 14th. The cast is led by Margaret Qualley, Aaron Pierre, Patrick Schwarzenegger, Gabriel Basso, and Catherine Keener.
The film, like Fire, generated a mostly muted response upon its festival premiere. Reviews are respectful but far from glowing with 76% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. Awards voters should greet this similarly to the Toronto crowd with ambivalence. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Fresh off his role fighting zombies in the blockbuster video game adaptation Resident Evil, Austin Abrams deals with a different dangerous creature in Whalefall starting October 16th. The survival thriller features Abrams as a scuba diver trapped in the belly of a sperm whale. Based on the novel by Daniel Kraus, Brian Duffield directs with Josh Brolin, Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd in the supporting cast.
Buzz seems encouraging for the whale tale and this could be a word-of-mouth sleeper. In a best case scenario, it could approach the $20 million that Heart of the Beast premiered with. I suspect the combo of Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd could be more potent. I’ll say a low double digits to possibly low teens start is where this lands as it hopes for staying power in subsequent frames.
Whalefall opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
It can be said that four of Ben Affleck’s previous five directorial efforts attracted awards attention. His 2007 debut Gone Baby Gone received a Supporting Actress nod for Amy Ryan while 2010’s follow-up The Town saw Jeremy Renner nab a supporting mention. 2012’s Argo was the Best Picture winner in addition to Adapted Screenplay and Editing victories (though Affleck was not up for his directing). Four years later, Live by Night was a critical and commercial failure that is the outlier as far as Oscar prospects. While 2023’s Air didn’t end up with any noms, it was in the conversation for some.
Affleck’s sixth behind the camera effort Animals is out with a limited theatrical engagement (I guess for Academy eligibility) this weekend along with a Netflix streaming bow. The crime thriller stars Affleck, Gillian Anderson, Kerry Washington, Steven Yeun, Luis Gerardo Méndez, and Adriana Paz.
Critical reaction is even softer than what greeted Live by Night. Rotten Tomatoes is at 35% with Metacritic at an even worse 31. The review embargo didn’t lift until hours before it was available to millions of Netflix viewers. That was a big hint that Animals chances in the awards conversation were DOA and that’s been proven true. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount looks for Street Fighter to kick off with impressive earnings beginning October 16th. Based on the video game series that started nearly 40 years ago, it arrives 32 years after the Jean-Claude Van Damme version was a box office flop. Kitao Sakurai, best known for making the 2021 Eric André hidden cam comedy Bad Trip, directs. The cast includes Noah Centineo, Andrew Koji, Callina Liang, Roman Reigns, David Dastmalchian, Cody Rhodes, the filmmaker’s buddy Eric André, Andrew Schulz, Vidyut Jammwal, Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson, and Jason Momoa.
I definitely think this will fare better than what greeted Mr. Van Damme in 1994. Originally slated for March, video game adaptations have become a financially potent genre lately with examples including the Super Mario and Sonic pics, A Minecraft Movie, and, most recently, Resident Evil. The best comp might come from earlier this year via Mortal Kombat II and its $38.5 million debut. That’s probably the ceiling and I have Fighter behind in the upper 20s instead of high 30s.
Street Fighter opening weekend prediction: $28.5 million
In 2010, David Fincher’s The Social Network was an awards powerhouse with 10 nominations including Best Picture, Director, and Jesse Eisenberg in Actor (it would lose all three to The King’s Speech). It did emerge victorious for its Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Original Score. Fincher and Eisenberg are not involved in the sequel The Social Reckoning which releases this weekend. Network‘s writer Aaron Sorkin returns in that role and in the director’s chair. Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White, Bill Burr, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, and Billy Magnussen lead the cast with Jeremy Strong taking over from Eisenberg as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.
With the review embargo having lifted just a day before its theatrical debut, it seems like Reckoning will not resonate with awards voters. Rotten Tomatoes is at 70% with Metacritic only at 50. Madison and Strong are getting by relatively unscathed (the same cannot be said for Sorkin’s script according to several critics). However, I don’t see Madison (in her first role since her Oscar-winning lead performance in 2024’s Anora), Strong, or anyone else generating much chatter for their work. A nominee two years ago for The Apprentice, I’ve had Strong listed in my Supporting Actor possibilities in the top 10 for months (though not as a nominee). There’s a good chance he drops out of contention altogether. I’m struggling to see Social getting in anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Recounting the company history of OpenAI, Artificial is a new tale involving a web-related reckoning from director Luca Guadagnino. Originally an Amazon MGM release, the studio controversially dropped the feature after it was completed with Neon eventually snatching the rights. Said to be a dark comedy, Andrew Garfield is OpenAI CEO Sam Altman with Yura Borisov as the company’s cofounder. The supporting cast includes Monica Barbaro, Cooper Hoffman, Jason Schwartzman, Chris O’Dowd, Ike Barinholtz, and Mark Rylance. It premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its Christmas Day theatrical bow.
Based on initial reaction, Artificial could enter the chat as an awards contender in several races. That begins with Best Picture. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 92% with Metacritic at 76. I view this as a hopeful in the 9-10 range of the 10 BP possibilities though it certainly may miss the cut entirely. An Original Screenplay nod is also feasible.
An announcement earlier this week confirmed that Borisov will be submitted in lead Actor with Barbaro vying for Supporting Actress. Both were nominees two years ago in the supporting fields for Anora and A Complete Unknown respectively. I am skeptical either get in. Garfield is another story. He’s a two-time nominee in Best Actor for 2016’s Hacksaw Ridge and 2021’s Tick, Tick… Boom! Neon is campaigning him in Supporting Actor and I do believe he stands a solid shot at making that quintet. I’ve yet to predict Garfield, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update for what sounds like a juicy role. As for the down-the-line attention, the score from Blur/Gorillaz frontman Damon Albarn is getting noticed.
While Challengers and Queer and After the Hunt ultimately became non-factors with the Academy, Artificial seems like Guadagnino’s first real shot at multiple noms since 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Horror looks to rule the charts with Jessica Chastain as the creepy Other Mommy while Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:
With an effective trailer and a likely hunger for scary material as we’re into the month of October, my mid 20s projection for Mommy easily gives it the victory.
The Social Reckoning may have to settle for anywhere between third and fifth place. A sort of sequel to 2010’s acclaimed The Social Network, this updated look at Facebook/Meta isn’t carrying the type of buzz that greeted its predecessor. I have this making only a third of what Network achieved over a decade and a half ago.
As for holdovers, Verity had a fantastic opening (more on that below). The C+ Cinemascore grade is a bit troubling and a 60% sophomore dip would put it in a distant second. With my soft outlook for Reckoning, I’ll say that Resident Evil narrowly edges it out for third with Heart of the Beast rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $27.2 million
2. Verity
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. The Social Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (October 2-4)
A couple weeks back, I couldn’t have imagined not discussing where Digger would place in the top five in its sophomore frame, but here we are.
We will get to Tom Cruise’s box office disaster shortly though we’ll start with positive results. Verity, based on the Colleen Hoover novel, opened at the highest end of expectations with $32 million. The thriller starring Anne Hathaway (in her fifth 2026 flick) and Dakota Johnson blew past my $20.4 million prediction. As mentioned, it should see a large decline this weekend but this is a fine result for Amazon MGM.
Resident Evil stayed in second place with $12.6 million, in range with my $12 million projection. The video game based horror tale has taken in $125 million after three weeks.
Heart of the Beast was third with $10.8 million, on pace with my $11.2 million call. The Brad Pitt/German Shepherd survival tale is up to $38 million in two weeks.
Digger was fourth and marked Tom Cruise’s lowest opening since 2007’s Lions for Lambs (in which he was a supporting player). With mixed reviews and a C+ Cinemascore, audiences and critics were divided and the result was only $8 million compared to my $10.3 million forecast. Warner Bros as we know it (after Paramount’s acquisition) goes out with a whimper as this will be a significant money loser for the studio.
Primetime rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. Also with $8 million, the two-week tally is $34 million.
Finally, last week’s #1 Avengers: Endgame Encore fell a lot further than I figured in seventh with $4.4 million. That’s an 83% decline and I was far more generous at $10 million. Don’t feel bad for the MCU, however, as its overall gross since 2019 ballooned to $894 million.
True life mountain climbing drama Tenzing has played the Telluride and Toronto festivals prior to a limited theatrical engagement next weekend and an Apple TV streaming release on October 16th. Jennifer Peedom, known for most nature related docs, directs. Genden Phuntsok plays the title role (known to be the first individual to ascend Mount Everest) alongside Sir Edmund Hillary (Tom Hiddleston). Willem Dafoe and Caitriona Balfe costar.
Tenzing managed a respectful reception on the fest circuit. While Rotten Tomatoes is at 100%, the Metacritic is a more grounded 65. While critics are praising some technical aspects, I doubt this climbs into the awards conversation on any level. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two decades plus after receiving a Supporting Actress nomination for Hotel Rwanda, Sophie Okonedo is picking up raves for her lead work in Clarissa. Updating Virginia Woolf’s Mrs. Dalloway, the Nigerian set drama comes from directors and twin brothers Arie and Chuko Esiri. The supporting cast includes David Oyelowo, Toheeb Jimoh, India Amarteifio, Nikki Amuka-Bird, and Ayo Edebiri.
Clarissa premiered at Cannes with its stateside unveiling last week at the New York festival. Neon is planning a limited theatrical engagement on December 11th. Reviews are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 87 on Metacritic. I just wonder if exposure will be wide enough for Okonedo to nab her second try at gold. I suspect she’ll need some precursors or critics’ groups love to get the Academy’s attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
