All five nominated pictures for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards premiered at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival. So it’s obvious that we look to the 2026’s fest for possibilities at the 99th ceremony. I already wrote about Once Upon a Time in Harlem (which could be a frontrunner) and The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist.
Attention is now turned to The History of Concrete from John Wilson. The host of the HBO docuseries How To with John Wilson, the filmmaker’s feature-length directorial debut has a fascinating concept. Wilson applies lessons learned from a workshop about making a Hallmark movie to attempting a documentary about what the title suggests.
Sundance critics appreciated it to the scores of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic with particular praise going to its comedic aspects. Magnolia Pictures snatched up distribution rights. Academy voters could focus their attention on more serious docs, but Concrete at least has the foundation to be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adapted from Homer’s ancient Greek works, The Odyssey looks to make a lot of dough when it opens July 17th. Undoubtedly one of 2026’s most anticipated releases, Christopher Nolan directs the fantasy action epic with Matt Damon headlining a packed cast. That includes Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Samantha Morton, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.
The first feature to be shot entirely on 70 mm IMAX cameras, showings on those giant screens are already sold out or filling up for the three-hour experience. Nolan’s stock is incredibly high right now. This is his follow-up to the 2023 Oscar juggernaut Oppenheimer which nearly grossed a billion dollars worldwide. No other director is more bankable than him.
With known source material, a spirited marketing campaign, and a plum mid-July release date that Nolan favors (it’s when Oppenheimer, The Dark Knight, and The Dark Knight Rises premiered), that should be a winning combo. Official reviews aren’t out yet, but early word-of-mouth is strong and it’s expected to be a major Oscar contender.
The Odyssey should surpass the $82.5 million that greeted Oppenheimer. I think it can get past $100 million even though I’m not buying the rosiest forecasts of $130 million or so (at least not yet).
The Odyssey opening weekend prediction: $106.2 million
Arriving in theaters this weekend and not even a decade behind the animated original, Disney’s live-action version of Moana hopes for smooth sailing at the box office. Broadway vet Thomas Kail makes his directorial debut with Dwayne Johnson headlining and Catherine Laga’aia in the title role. Costars include Rena Owen, John Tui, Frankie Adams, and Jemaine Clement.
In 2016, the Mouse House had a commercial and critical darling with the animated pic. The Rotten Tomatoes score was 95% with Metacritic at 81. A Best Animated Feature nomination followed (losing to the studio’s own Zootopia) along with an Original Song mention for “How Far I’ll Go” (written by Lin-Manuel Miranda). Reviews were not as strong for the 2024 sequel (61% RT, 58 MC) and no Oscar attention was paid.
The downward trend continues with this live-action rendering. The Tomato meter is a lowly 36% with Metacritic at 45. Even though Miranda contributes an Original Song, it’s safe to assume this Moana will not be an awards player in any way. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney’s live-action version of Moana should top the charts, but it could face choppy waters in a marketplace with competition for kiddos and their parents. We also have Evil Dead Burn, the latest entry in that 45-year-old horror franchise and the nationwide expansion of Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The Mouse House will easily achieve #1 but not bragging rights for Moana. My mid 50s forecast would cook up a disappointing start for Dwayne Johnson’s latest and that would mark the second lowball family flick debut in as many weekends.
I am referring to Minions & Monsters. Its unimpressive rollout (more on that below) was a Fourth of July surprise. If it eases in the mid 40s, the latest animated adventure in the series may have to settle for third.
That’s because Evil Dead Burn seeks a runner-spot slot as it hopes to post a $20M+ opening like its predecessors. I’m projecting it will get there.
Toy Story 5 and Young Washington should round out the top five and I have each declining in the mid 40s range.
As for The Invite, a mid single digits result in its nationwide expansion should mean sixth place.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Moana
Predicted Gross: $54.3 million
2. Evil Dead Burn
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
3. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $20 million
4. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
5. Young Washington
Predicted Gross: $11 million
6. The Invite
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (July 3-5)
With Minions & Monsters, Illumination Entertainment experienced the smallest debut of the seven Despicable Me/Minions movies with a far less than anticipated $37 million from Friday to Sunday and $62 million since its Wednesday bow. To put it mildly, I was more optimistic with respective estimates of $66.4 million and $106.5 million. The studio was obviously banking on more fireworks at the multiplex as this received stronger reviews than its predecessors.
Toy Story 5 slid to second after two weeks in 1st with $30.3 million, under my $35.4 million call. The three-week tally builds to $365 million.
Young Washington from Angel Studios took advantage of the holiday with its historical subject and earned $19.3 million in third. That’s on par with my $18.5 million take.
Supergirl crash landed once again in its sophomore weekend with a 77% fall to $8.6 million. I thought it might only crater in the mid 60s and went with $13.2 million. Summer’s biggest bomb has collected a piddly $57 million domestically.
Disclosure Day rounded out the top five with a 30% ease and $5.7 million. I incorrectly had Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi tale on the outside looking in and it crossed the century mark at $105 million after four weeks.
Obsession finally performed like a normal summer pic by decreasing 46% in sixth with $5.2 million (I said $6.8 million). The eight-week tally is $245 million.
Remaking the 2020 Spanish comedy The People Upstairs, Olivia Wilde is drawing acclaim for her third directorial feature The Invite. Currently in limited release, it’s out wide on July 10th. The four-hander stars Seth Rogen, Wilde, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton.
After its first screenings at Sundance back in January, a bidding war ensued with A24 winning out. On the Fourth of July weekend, The Invite welcomed crowds at 28 venues across New York, L.A., and other big cities. It even managed to crack the top ten in 10th with $800,000 plus for a noteworthy per screen average.
With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic, Wilde’s latest is starting to generate awards buzz. Her 2019 behind the camera debut Booksmart did the same while 2022’s Don’t Worry Darling was a critical and commercial letdown.
Like many platform titles, The Invite should play stronger in large markets. I do think this can manage mid single digits on approximately 1600 screens.
The Invite opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.
This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.
When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.
I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.
I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)
13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)
18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)
21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Club Kid
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Zendaya, The Drama
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)
11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)
14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)
10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor
15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Milo Quifes, The Black Ball
Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotuar
5. Coward
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland
7. Possible Love
8. Mimesis
9. Rose
10. The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood
2. Toy Story 5
3. Ray Gunn
4. Tangles
5. Hoppers
Other Possibilities:
6. In Waves
7. Forgotten Island
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
9. Iron Boy
10. Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. Nuisance Bear
3. To Hold a Mountain
4. The History of Concrete
5. When a Witness Recants
Other Possibilities:
6. American Doctor
7. One in a Million
8. Time and Water
9. Rehearsals for a Revolution
10. Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord
7. The Debut
8. Dune: Part Three
9. Cry to Heaven
10. Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Digger
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven
7. Fatherland
8. Werwulf
9. Disclosure Day
10. Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2
8. Jack of Spades
9. Wuthering Heights
10. I Love Boosters
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Wild Horse Nine
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Fjord
9. Obsession
10. Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Cry to Heaven
9. The Bride!
10. Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Disclosure Day
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Digger
8. Wild Horse Nine
9. Wildwood
10. The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from The Black Ball
3. TBD from The Debut
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights
8. TBD from Hexed
9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger
7. Werwulf
8. Jack of Spades
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
10. Backrooms
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Project Hail Mary
4. The Black Ball
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Digger
9. Werwulf
10. Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Godzilla Minus Zero
5. Whalefall
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday
7. Disclosure Day
8. Wildwood
9. The End of Oak Street
10. The Sheep Detectives
And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Black Ball, The Odyssey
10 Nominations
Digger, White Horse Nine
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut
4 Nominations
Cry to Heaven
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood
In a summer where horror pics have lit up the box office, Warner Bros hopes that Evil Dead Burn continues that trend on July 10th. The sixth overall feature in a franchise that Sam Raimi started in the early 80s, this serves as a stand-alone continuation to 2013’s Evil Dead and 2023’s Evil Dead Rise. Sébastien Vaniček takes over directorial duties. The cast includes Souheila Yacoub, Tandi Wright, Hunter Doohan, and Luciane Buchanan.
Ten years ago, Evil Dead kicked off with a front-loaded $25.7 million on its way to a domestic gross of $54 million. A decade after that, Evil Dead Rise made a slightly lower $24.5 million out of the gate. However, it had stronger legs and ended up with $67 million. That goodwill from its predecessor and the genre’s overall strength in the marketplace could push Burn to the largest debut of the three.
In a best case scenario, that could mean a premiere approaching $30 million. Yet I’ll say the recent trend of underperformance applies here and this has the lowest opening of the trio.
Evil Dead Burn opening weekend prediction: $21.9 million
Out July 10th and arriving nearly a decade behind the original, Moana is Disney’s latest live-action rendering of their animated blockbusters. The musical adventure marks the directorial debut of Broadway vet Thomas Kail with Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as Maui and Catherine Laga’aia making her big screen debut in the title role. Costars include John Tui, Frankie Adams, Jemaine Clement, and Rena Owen.
In 2016, Moana kicked off with $56 million over the traditional Thanksgiving weekend and $82 million over the five-day holiday frame. The domestic haul was an eventual $248 million. Over Turkey Day in 2024, Moana 2 tremendously exceeded expectations with $139 million from Friday to Sunday, $225 million for the five-day, and $460 million overall.
The Mouse House wasted no time with this live-action version to capitalize on the franchise’s viability. An argument could be made that the eight-year wait between the first two Moana‘s helped with anticipation. That may not be the case for this version considering that two years hasn’t even lapsed. Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 are still offering competition for family crowds. That could spell trouble for Moana and I’m projecting only mid 50s for what would be seen as a major letdown.
It’s not often that the seventh feature in a franchise is considered to be the strongest (sorry Diamonds Are Forever and Saw: The Final Chapter). However, plenty of critics are claiming that to be the case for Minions & Monsters. Out today and prepared to rule the Fourth of July holiday weekend, this is Illumination Entertainment’s latest entry in their blockbuster animated comedic adventures. Pierre Coffin directs and voices the adorable little yellow creatures once again. Familiar faces providing behind the mic contributions include Trey Parker, Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jesse Eisenberg, Jeff Bridges, Zoey Deutch, and Bobby Moynihan.
This is the third feature with the Minions moniker after the 2015 original and 2022 sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru. The series got started sixteen summers ago with Despicable Me and its three follow-ups. An ode to Hollywood in the 1920s, Monsters stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the freshest RT score of the septet, topping Despicable Me‘s 80% and well ahead of Minions (55%) and Rise of Gru (70%). The 67 Metacritic lags only behind the first Despicable at 72.
The franchise’s Oscar track record got off to a promising start and then leveled off. In 2010, Despicable Me landed a Best Animated Feature nod. In 2013, the sequel was up in that race and also for the inescapable ditty “Happy” from Pharrell Williams in Original Song. None of those nominations resulted in victories and the four pics since haven’t received any recognition.
Monsters has the potential to change that with its better than expected reviews. A Best Animated Feature slot in the quintet is not out of the question. That said, competition is a factor. I’d put it behind Disney’s Hoppers and Toy Story 5 and upcoming releases like Wildwood, Ray Gunn, and Tangles are anticipated to contend. Time will tell if there’s room for the Minions and it might be an uphill battle. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Animation domination looks to be in order over the holiday weekend with Minions & Monsters debuting and Toy Story 5 sliding to the runner-up slot. Angel Studios is also releasing Young Washington focused on the formative years of America’s 1st POTUS. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The seventh feature in Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me/Minions franchise, Monsters is unleashed on Wednesday. The Fourth of July falls on a Saturday where many families will opt for literal fireworks instead of causing financial ones at the multiplex. I’ll project mid 60s for Friday to Sunday while topping nine digits over the five-day rollout.
Young Washington‘s projections are all over the map with some as low as $10 million and others in the $30 million range. The timing of release is hopefully shrewd for its studio. I’m basically splitting the difference with a high teens gross and that should be good for third.
Toy Story 5 may lose around 50% of its audience (especially with the Minions competition) for second place. The sophomore frame decline for Supergirl should be far more significant after a weak opening (more on that below). I have it plummeting in the mid 60s for low teens while Obsession should round out the top five.
Here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Toy Story5
Predicted Gross: $35.4 million
3. Young Washington
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. Supergirl
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
5. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (June 26-28)
Toy Story 5 fell an understandable 56% in weekend #2 to $70.8 million after a franchise best start. I had it holding stronger at $80.6 million though Disney/Pixar is perfectly happy with the $298 million in its domestic coffers.
The story of the week was the collective meh that audiences and critics greeted Supergirl with. The second pic in the newly configured DC Universe after last summer’s Superman, the stand-alone effort for the Man of Steel’s cousin brought in only $37.1 million compared to my $44.5 million call. To put that in perspective, Superman from last summer started off with $125 million.
Obsession was third with $9.7 million, a touch more than my $9 million forecast. The horror sensation has amassed $233 million after seven weeks.
No previous Jackass flick has earned less than $20 million out of the gate before now. However, series finale Jackass: Best and Last ensured it probably will be the swan song. It opened in fourth with a disappointing $8.4 million, under my $11.3 million projection.
Disclosure Day was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $8.4 million) for an underwhelming three-week take of $94 million.
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