99th Academy Awards Predictions: October 25th Edition

Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything has done the kind of box office numbers that documentaries simply don’t do unless it is Fahrenheit 9/11 from 22 years ago. The unconventional look at Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes as she prepares for prison and the aftermath has become a water cooler experience for audiences.

When I did my last predictions update two weeks ago, I did not have Everything listed in my top 15 possibilities for Best Picture. A lot has changed. It now sits at #3. Along with The Odyssey and The Black Ball, I believe a win narrative is present. Fielder and Oppenheim also make their appearance (in third) in the directing quintet. The film rises from #2 to #1 in Documentary Feature. I have it down for an Editing nod and it could get into Cinematography and Original Score.

The Everything love also extends to the acting categories. Due to the doc’s nature, I will not spoil who I’m predicting for a Supporting Actress nomination. Those who’ve seen the pic will understand. That will likely change soon but I’ll be kind enough to put a spoiler alert for readers who haven’t seen it.

Everything‘s rise in Picture takes out Elsinore while Fielder and Oppenheim’s ascension in Director drops Ryusuke Hamaguchi (All of a Sudden). She who shall not be named in Supporting Actress has Lola Dueñas from The Black Ball on the outside looking in. While Dueñas falls, her costar Guitarricadelafuente makes his first appearance in Supporting Actor. That removes Edward Norton (The Invite) from my five in what would be seen as a rather major snub.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)

9. All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (E)

10. Obsession (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Elsinore (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)

13. Artificial (PR: 13) (E)

14. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Possible Love

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (E)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. REDACTED, You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+2)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 9) (E)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Artificial (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)

8. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)

9. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Possible Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ink (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Primetime

Wildwood

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Possible Love (PR:4) (E)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coward (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Everytime (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Hoppers (PR: 8) (E)

9. In Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (+1)

2. NAZA (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One in a Million (PR: 6) (E)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)

8. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (+1)

9. 14th (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

When a Witness Recants

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+2)

8. I Play Rocky (PR: 6) (-2)

9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)

9. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Fjord

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Fjord

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. You Can See Everything (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. I Play Rocky (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicker (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rose (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Clayface (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Bride!

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wildwood (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: 10) (+1)

10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Artificial

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. “The City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Saddest Song” from Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Backrooms (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 7) (E)

8. Whalefall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wildwood (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)

8. Whalefall (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Sheep Detectives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The End of Oak Street

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

15 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Three

6 Nominations

The Debut, Wild Horse Nine

5 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, You Can See Everything

3 Nominations

Digger, Obsession

2 Nominations

Artificial, Elsinore, Michael, Rose, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Behemoth!, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Disclosure Day, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Werwulf, Wicker, Wildwood

Oscar Predictions: Nuisance Bear

Nuisance Bear won the Grand Jury Prize for documentaries at the Sundance Film Festival back in January and now A24 is distributing it stateside in Los Angeles in November with a New York release in December. Documenting the migration of polar bears in Canada, the festival crowdpleaser is directed by Gabriela Osio Vanden and Jack Weisman. It adapts their 2021 short film into a feature-length experience.

The truncated version from five years ago made the shortlist for the genre’s category, but didn’t place among the five eventual nominees. The longer Bear has 97% on Rotten Tomatoes though the 65 on Metacritic demonstrates some reserved reactions. As far as Sundance docs that took the Jury Prize, only 2021’s Summer of Soul (which won) and 2024’s Porcelain War have made the quintet in recent years.

Nuisance could make the shortlist too though I’m skeptical it makes the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Clayface

The latest DC Comics entry veers into full R rated body horror mode via Clayface which opens Friday. James Watkins directs the gory tale with Tom Rhys Harries in the title role and Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan providing support.

With 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic, Clayface is generating varied critical responses. This is not seen as an Oscar player for Warner Bros/DC with a notable exception. Those body horror effects could be rewarded in the Makeup & Hairstyling category. Recent ceremonies have seen the genre become more a player in that race with The Substance winning in 2024 and The Ugly Stepsister landing a nom last year. This could certainly make the contending quintet while a victory is likely out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

October 23-25 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (10/21): I didn’t do an individual post for Wicker with Olivia Colman, but with the news that it is debuting on over 1400 screens, my $4.9 million puts it in fifth place on my chart.

Clayface from the DC Universe was, until very recently, expected to easily rule the box office charts this weekend. That may be challenged from a previously unanticipated source. We also have Laika Animation’s critically acclaimed Wildwood and Taika Waititi’s far from acclaimed sci-fi dramedy Klara and the Sun starring Jenna Ortega premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction
Wildwood Box Office Prediction
Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Clayface could gross high teens for a floor to possibly mid to high 20s in the best case scenario. My estimate puts it right in the middle of the range in the low 20s. That’s far from impressive but not too shabby considering its reported $40 million budget.

As mentioned, that figure was thought to be enough to give it bragging rights at #1. Then You Can See Everything happened. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about imprisoned Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes exceeded all expectations with a sizzling #2 debut on 855 screens (more on its opening below). It is slated to grow to around 2600 venues this weekend. I think the word-of-mouth could mean a low to mid 20s output in its sophomore frame. That means I’m giving it the edge for the top spot.

Wildwood, despite glowing reviews, may fall under $10 million for a fourth place start. As for Klara, my meager $2.3 million guesstimate might mean it struggles to even make the top 10.

Current champ Street Fighter should be third with a low 60s percentage fall while holdovers Sense and Sensibility, Whalefall, and Other Mommy all post similar grosses.

Here’s how I see it all shaking out:

1. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $23.8 million

2. Clayface

Predicted Gross: $22 million

3. Street Fighter

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Wildwood

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Wicker

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

6. Sense and Sensibility

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

7. Other Mommy

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

8. Whalefall

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (October 16-18)

Video game based Street Fighter kicked off in line with expectations at $30.7 million for first, managing to outdo my $24.5 million take. I look for it to fade quickly.

A24 nailed down the second highest non-concert documentary opening in history behind 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with You Can See Everything. With over $18k per screen, the doc (which no one knew existed until it surprise screened at Telluride) was runner-up with $15.6 million. That’s well beyond my $8.9 million prediction as its future looks rosy.

Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.2 million (a 70% plummet) compared to my $9.1 million call. The horror flick with Jessica Chastain sits at $44 million after two weeks.

Survival tale Whalefall flopped in fourth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2 million projection. Mixed reviews helped sink it.

Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with a respectable $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.3 million forecast. The latest Jane Austen adaptation may hold up fairly in subsequent weekends.

Finally, Verity was sixth with $6 million (I said $5.9 million) as the romantic thriller brought its three-week tally to $65 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Taika Waititi’s latest dramedy is Klara and the Sun and it’s out October 23rd. Based on the Kazuo Ishiguro 2021 novel, Jenna Ortega stars in the sci-fi tale with Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne providing support.

After its premiere at the London Film Festival, negative word-of-mouth start peeking out. Sun now sports a 25% Rotten Tomatoes score with 27 on Metacritic. This will struggle mightily to find an audience. There is little hope this will approach the $33 million domestic gross that greeted the filmmaker’s awards player Jojo Rabbit in 2019.

My forecast puts this in line with Waititi’s 2023 predecessor Next Goal Wins. The soccer tale also whiffed with critics and underperformed with a mere $2.5 million in its opening. I don’t see a compelling argument for Sun eclipsing it.

Klara and the Sun opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Clayface prediction, click here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction

For my Wildwood prediction, click here:

Wildwood Box Office Prediction

Wildwood Box Office Prediction

Stop-motion animated fantasy Wildwood is the latest effort for distributor Laika and their first this decade. Directed by Travis Knight, the voice cast includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant. Following its premiere at the London Film Festival, it hits domestic screens on October 23rd.

Critics are on it side and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature prize at the Oscars. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 86 on Metacritic. Laika’s projects are typically acclaimed and all five previous features have been Academy nominated in its genre category. That hasn’t always translated to box office dollars stateside.

In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings (also directed by Knight) debuted with $12.6 million and that’s under what predecessors Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls started off with. That trio all premiered between $14-17 million. The last Laika tale, 2019’s Missing Link, was a major commercial failure with $5.9 million out of the gate.

I’m expecting Wildwood to do better, but not much better.

Wildwood opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Clayface prediction, click here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction

For my Klara and the Sun prediction, click here:

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Klara and the Sun

It’s been seven years since Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit was an Academy favorite with an Adapted Screenplay win for the filmmaker and five other noms including Best Picture. His follow-ups have been Thor: Love and Thunder (one of the MCU’s lower rated entries) and soccer flick Next Goal Wins which was met with a shrug.

Klara and the Sun, based on Kazuo Ishiguro’s 2021 novel, is his latest. The futuristic sci-fi dramedy stars Jenna Ortega with a supporting cast including Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne. It premiered at the London Film Festival with stateside distribution set for October 23rd.

Critics are taking a dim look at Sun. Rotten Tomatoes is at 27% with Metacritic even worse at 25. Judging from some reviews, this could end up on Worst of 2026 lists. Some write-ups are sparing Ortega from the incoming, but this will not be contending at any awards shows other than perhaps the Razzies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Clayface Box Office Prediction

Clayface is not your typical DC Universe flick and it might not reach the numbers of most other entries in the franchise. The R-rated thriller containing elements of body horror comes from director James Watkins with Tom Rhys Harries as the title character. Costars include Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan.

It’s been a rough year for Warner Bros and DC was part of that with the massive underperformance of Supergirl. It opened to a less than expected $38 million and was heavily front-loaded with just $72 million domestically. Guesstimates aren’t as high for Clayface and it only sports a $40 million budget compared to Supergirl‘s (at least) $170 million.

Unless this picks up steam in the coming week, low to mid 20s is the likely result.

Clayface opening weekend prediction: $22 million

For my Wildwood prediction, click here:

Wildwood Box Office Prediction

For my Klara and the Sun prediction, click here:

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Whalefall

20th Century Studios is hopeful that Whalefall makes a splash at the box office this weekend. Adapted from the 2023 novel by Daniel Kraus and directed by Brian Duffield (the two wrote the script together), Austin Abrams stars as a scuba diver stuck in the belly of a sperm whale. The survival thriller is also a family drama with Josh Brolin as his dad. Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd are among the supporting players.

The review embargo is up and mixed to positive notices have greeted it. “A bit too earnest” seems to be a theme. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 62. It won’t enter the discussion for any major award categories but its tech work could get noticed. Critics are being kind to it practical effects so Visual Effects is a possibility. I suspect it will make the shortlist a couple months down the line. There are heavy hitters in VE including Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Godzilla Minus Zero, and almost certainly the unscreened Dune: Part Three. Plenty of movies could be jockeying for one or at best two slots including this. The same logic applies to Best Sound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

October 16-18 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers step into the box office ring this weekend. Video game adaptation Street Fighter looks to lead the pack while survival tale Whalefall, acclaimed documentary You Can See Everything, and the latest adaptation of Jane Austen’s Sense and Sensibility jockey for position in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Street Fighter Box Office Prediction
Whalefall Box Office Prediction
You Can See Everything Box Office Prediction
Sense and Sensibility Box Office Prediction

Arriving 32 years after the Jean-Claude Van Damme version was a considerable bomb, Street Fighter should fare better with a decent if unspectacular mid 20s start. That should easily give it a first place finish.

Whalefall features Resident Evil lead Austin Abrams stuck in the belly of a sperm whale and I have it logging a so-so fourth place start in the high single digits.

You Can See Everything is the major question mark. It made a splash at the Telluride Film Festival and the covering of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes before she entered prison should generate eyeballs. The challenge is that I’ve yet to see a screen count. My higher single digits estimate could put in anywhere from 2nd to 4th depending on the Other Mommy drop.

Jessica Chastain’s horror flick opened in line with expectations (more on that below) but poor reviews and a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade could spell a mid to high 60s percentage decline in weekend #2.

Sense and Sensibility doesn’t seem to have significant buzz and my mid single digits take should have it rounding out the top six just behind Verity‘s third frame.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Street Fighter

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

2. Other Mommy

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

3. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Whalefall

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. Verity

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

6. Sense and Sensibility

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (October 9-11)

Audiences were hungry for horror despite a critical drubbing as Other Mommy brought in $27.8 million, on pace with my $27.2 million prediction. As mentioned, even with genre fans craving scares, this should fade quickly.

Verity dropped to second with $12 million, just under my $13.1 million call. The thriller with Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson eased 63% for a two-week total of $54 million.

Resident Evil was third in its fourth frame with $8.5 million compared to my $7.8 million projection. This video game adaptation grew to $138 million.

Heart of the Beast took fourth with $7.4 million (I said $6.6 million) as the Brad Pitt survival tale hit $50 million after three weeks.

Finally, Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning tanked in fifth with $5 million. Taking in just a quarter of what 2010 predecessor The Social Network achieved out of the gate, the tech drama couldn’t match my $7.4 million number.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…