Can Chuck Dickens get any awards love from Ti West’s rendering of his classic A Christmas Carol? Ebenezer is out this weekend with Johnny Depp attempting a big screen comeback as the title character. The darkly comedic gothic adaptation costars Rupert Grint, Andrea Riseborough, Sam Claflin, Daisy Ridley, Tramell Tillman, and Ian McKellen.
Critics are not showing their affection with 49% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 46 on Metacritic. That said, its prospects from the Academy are not dead. Costume Design is somewhat feasible. Its strongest chance lies in Makeup and Hairstyling. This is a category where Depp flicks have shown up from time to time: 1990’s Edward Scissorhands (lost to Dick Tracy), 1994’s Ed Wood (won), 2003’s Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (fell short to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End in 2007 (La Vie En Rose won), and even 2013’s box office flop The Lone Ranger which lost to Dallas Buyers Club.
I’ve yet to list Ebenezer in my top 10 possibilities in the Makeup derby though it could certainly make the shortlist. If it does so, this is an unpredictable branch so Depp could see his sixth feature in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving in the same mid-November frame as parts 2-5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping looks to dominate the charts beginning November 20th. Based on the Suzanne Collins novel from last year, Reaping is the sixth picture in the series and fifth in a row since 2013’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire directed by Francis Lawrence. It is a sequel to 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and prequel to 2012’s original. The cast includes Joseph Zada, Jesse Plemons, Ralph Fiennes, Glenn Close, Ben Wang, Kieran Culkin, Elle Fanning, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Whitney Peak, Lili Taylor, and Kelvin Harrison Jr. There’s also the reported inclusion of Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, and Woody Harrelson reprising their roles from the first four Games.
Their participation and advance ticket sales for Lionsgate has led to this being seen as more of a tentpole feature than Songbirds. Three years ago, it had the worst Hunger debut by far with $44 million on its way to a $166 million domestic total. For comparison’s sake, the Lawrence led quartet from 2012-2015 all premiered with over $100 million with the first two making north of $400 million stateside.
Reaping could see a start similar to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 from 2014 and Part 2 in 2015. They had respective openings of $121 million and $102 million. The latter figure is probably the ceiling while the floor could be around $80-85 million. I’ll say this manages nine figures for the shot in the arm that the franchise needs.
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opening weekend prediction: $104.5 million
After nearly a decade away from headlining roles, Johnny Depp hopes to capture the top spot at the box office with the holiday themed Ebenezer. We also have David Leitch’s heist flick How to Rob a Bank hoping to steal away some bucks. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
My estimate has Ebenezer hitting its tracking, but not exceeding expectations at just over $20 million. That should certainly be enough to give Depp his first #1 title since 2018’s Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. Ti West’s take on A Christmas Carol will hope for small declines over the holidays.
Second place could be a battle between the second frames of Godzilla Minus Zero and The Cat in the Hat. The latter should see a lower sophomore frame decline than Zero which opened in line with expectations (more on that below). I’ll still say the green monster manages the runner-up position with Cat in third.
I’m not expecting How to Rob a Bank to reach $10 million and my meager prediction has it in fourth place for a subpar showing.
The top five might be rounded out by You Can See Everything as I anticipate Drummer Boy and Ramayana: Part 1 will fall further in their second outings that the acclaimed doc will in its fifth.
Another newcomer hitting multiplexes is the mid 19th-century set horror title Victorian Psycho. I skipped doing an individual post but I’ll say it makes $3 million.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Ebenezer
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
2. Godzilla Minus Zero
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
3. The Cat in the Hat
Predicted Gross: $12 million
4. How to Rob a Bank
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $6 million
Box Office Results (November 6-8)
Godzilla Minus Zero, the sequel to 2023’s critically heralded Godzilla Minus One, nearly tripled the opening gross of that predecessor with $30.5 million. That’s just under my $32 million projection as the kaiju tale should keep the franchise rolling along for Toho.
The animated rendering of Dr. Seuss’s The Cat in the Hat was second with $20 million, falling a tad below my $22.5 million forecast. Featuring Bill Hader voicing the title role, Warner Bros seeks minimal percentage drops as this plays over Thanksgiving and beyond.
I didn’t give near enough credit to Drummer Boy from Angel Studios. The musical drama, set during the Revolutionary War, was a surprise third at $9.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside of my top five and didn’t even do a prediction post for it.
Hindi-language epic Ramayana: Part 1 completed a top four filled with newbies, whipping up $8.9 million over the traditional weekend and $12.4 million since its Thursday bow. That’s a solid result though I had it managing more with respective estimates of $11.9 million and $17.1 million.
Fifth place went to You Can See Everything with $8.4 million compared to my $7.3 million call. The doc grew to $79 million after four weeks.
Wildwood was sixth with $7.2 million (I said $6 million) as the Laika fantasy fell only 20% in weekend #3 for a tally of $40 million.
Clayface took seventh with $6.7 million, besting my $5.4 million guesstimate. The DC Universe body horror pic stands at $56 million after three weeks.
Finally, Martin McDonagh’s Oscar contender Wild Horse Nine was eighth with $5.9 million, galloping past my $3.9 million forecast. It’ll look for awards buzz to keep it afloat.
My first Oscar predictions for November sees the contenders in Best Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remaining the same. In the supporting fields, there are two changes to report. In Supporting Actress, I’m putting Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) in over Olivia Colman (Elsinore). However, in Supporting Actor, The Odyssey‘s John Leguizamo falls out in favor of Edward Norton (The Invite).
While Best Actor still has the same quintet, I’m putting John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) back in the top spot and that takes Andrew Scott (Elsinore) down to second. Andrew Garfield (Artificial) makes his inaugural appearance in first in Supporting Actor with longtime #1 Paul Giamatti (The Debut) sliding to the runner-up slot.
There’s a notable development in Original Song. As discussed on the blog previously, Diane Warren is a mainstay in this competition with 17 nominations and zero victories. This year, it was assumed that her title track from the Mark Wahlberg crime drama By Any Means would be her tune in contention. Now another song from Warren has entered the chat via “One Right Here” from another crime drama Maserati: The Brothers. Andrea Bocelli and Jennifer Hudson provide the vocals and that star power has me thinking it’ll be the one nominated.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Debut (PR: 8) (E)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (E)
10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Elsinore (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Artificial (PR: 13) (E)
14. Digger (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Luca Guadagnino, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marion Bailey, Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 6) (-2)
9. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. REDACTED, You Can See Everything (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate O’Flynn, Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (E)
8. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guy Pearce, Ink
Riz Ahmed, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+3)
7. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Elsinore (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Fjord (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ink
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everytime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Woman Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Tangles (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hoppers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. In Waves (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. You Can See Everything (PR: 1) (E)
2. NAZA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 5) (+1)
5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 6) (E)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (+1)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 14th (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All of a Sudden
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. You Can See Everything (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Debut (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Artificial
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wicker (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Clayface (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wildwood (PR: 7) (E)
8. You Can See Everything (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “The City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (E)
4. “One Right Here” from Maserati: The Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
5. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. “The Saddest Song” from Artificial (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“By Any Means” from By Any Means
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Werwulf (PR: 9) (E)
10. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Whalefall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wildwood (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The End of Oak Street (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Disclosure Day
That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
12 Nominations
The Black Ball
8 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, The Invite
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, You Can See Everything
3 Nominations
Digger, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Godzilla Minus Zero, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Behemoth!, Being Heumann, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Fjord, Iron Boy, Maserati: The Brothers, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Werwulf, Wicker
Coming-of-age drama Mouse premiered way back in February at the Berlin Film Festival and is hitting stateside screens in limited fashion this weekend. It is Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2024 indie community theater flick Ghostlight. Sophie Okonedo, Katherine Mallen Kupferer, Chloe Coleman, Tara Mallen, Beck Nolan, Iman Vellani, and David Hyde Pierce make up the ensemble.
Like their predecessor, Mouse has connected with critics with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and 88 on Metacritic. The IFC release might not get enough exposure to be visible to the Academy. The one potential exception (admittedly a reach) could be Okonedo. Nominated 22 years ago in Supporting Actress for Hotel Rwanda, reviews are calling her performance a stand-out. She’s also received kudos for her lead work in this year’s Clarissa. If critics groups start naming her as their pick for Supporting Actress here, maybe it elevates her moving forward. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Will Amazon MGM’s How to Rob a Bank make off with decent grosses when it opens November 13th? David Leitch (John Wick, Deadpool 2, The Fall Guy) helms the action comedy with Nicholas Hoult starring. The supporting cast includes Zoë Kravitz, Anna Sawai, Rhenzy Feliz, Pete Davidson, John C. Reilly, and Christian Slater.
Originally slated for September, I’m not convinced audience awareness is where it needs to be to meet expectations. Tracking is said to be around $10 million. That’s certainly possible for a best case and Leitch has had a number of sizable hits. My gut says to take the under for a subpar performance.
How to Rob a Bank opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
Paramount is looking for audiences to be in the Christmas spirit, albeit Gothic holiday spirit, when Ebenezer opens November 13th. Also styled as Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (in case you don’t know it’s based on the Charles Dickens classic), this is a departure for director Ti West. Known for the recent trilogy of X horror flicks (X, Pearl, MaXXXine), the darkly comedic fantasy marks a comeback attempt for Johnny Depp in the title role. After a series of controversies, this is Depp’s most high profile leading role in nearly a decade. Costars include Rupert Grint, Andrea Riseborough, Sam Claflin, Daisy Ridley, Arthur Conti, Ellie Bamber, Henry Lloyd-Hughes, Charlie Murphy, Tramell Tillman, and Ian McKellen.
Reportedly made for just under $40 million, that reasonable price could prove fortuitous as this looks to play throughout the holiday season. The review embargo doesn’t lift until the day before. That’s typically not a positive sign, but it could also avoid any poor word-of-mouth if critics say (you guessed it!) bah humbug.
Estimates have been trickling up past $20 million. The opportunity to exceed expectations is there with a worst case scenario probably in the late teens. I’ll say it does get to over half its budget in the initial weekend.
Ebenezer opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million
Based on the Dr. Seuss 1957 children’s book, Warner Bros is hoping family audiences turn out for The Cat in the Hat this weekend. The animated adaptation arrives 23 years after Mike Myers starred in the critically ballyhooed live-action take. This time around, Bill Hader voices the title character. Other cast members include Matt Berry, Quinta Brunson, Xochitl Gomez, Giancarlo Esposito, and America Ferrera. Alessandro Carloni and Erica Rivinoja direct.
There are plenty of titles vying for attention in Best Animated Feature including Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Ray Gunn, Forgotten Island, Iron Boy, Tangles,Hoppers, and Coyote vs. Acme. Sporting a subpar 47 on Metacritic, any thought of including Cat among those contenders should give you serious pause. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After October closed out with an expected whimper, four movies hope to kickstart a busy November at multiplexes. Toho sequel Godzilla Minus Zero, animated Dr. Seuss adaptation The Cat in the Hat, Indian action fantasy Ramayana: Part 1, and Martin McDonagh’s black comedy Wild Horse Nine all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There could be a battle for #1, but in the matchup of Godzilla vs. Hat, I’m giving the giant lizard the advantage. Predecessor Godzilla Minus One from 2023 debuted to $11 million. However, its reputation has grown and anticipation for the follow-up might have it tripling that start in the mid 30s.
The Cat in the Hat hopes to play well over the holiday season. I wouldn’t be shocked if my estimate is a tad high though I am giving it the benefit of the doubt with a premiere just over $30 million.
The biggest question mark is Ramayana: Part 1. Pre-sales are encouraging for the highly priced tagged epic. It opens on Thursday and that should contribute to a front-loaded total. I think it gets past $10 million from Friday to Sunday for a third place showing.
As for Wild Horse Nine, it may only get to lower single digits on around 1000 screens. It’ll hope for awards buzz to keep it in venues moving forward. My $3.9 million figure puts it outside the top five.
Holdover and current champ You Can See Everything should drop to fourth. Wildwood is likely to experience a smaller dip than Clayface and allow the former to be fifth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Godzilla Minus Zero
Predicted Gross: $32 million
2. The Cat in the Hat
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
3. Ramayana: Part 1
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
5. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)
In a Halloween frame where no new titles entered the wide release marketplace, buzzy documentary You Can See Everything vaulted to first after two weeks in second. A24’s Oscar contender took in $11.4 million, below my $12.9 million prediction for a three-week total of $64 million. It is doing numbers that the genre doesn’t do.
Clayface dropped to second with $11 million, under my $13.5 million projection. The DC Universe body horror flick has made $44 million after two weeks. That’s not bad considering the reported $40 million budget.
Laika Animation’s Wildwood eased only 27% in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million, a tad more than my $8 million take. The critically acclaimed stop-motion effort has $27 million in its coffers.
Wicker with Olivia Colman also held impressively with $4.3 million in weekend #2. I was close at $4 million as the ribald comedy has made $13 million.
Street Fighter rounded out the top five with $3.6 million (I said $4 million). The video game adaptation has $53 million after three weeks.
Wild Horse Nine was trotted out at the Venice Film Festival to Oscar buzz and the black comedy from Martin McDonagh opens theatrically November 6th. The writer/director’s follow-up to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin stars John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Tom Waits, Parker Posey, and Mariana di Girolamo.
With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 on Metacritic, Nine is expected to contend for awards noms like the filmmaker’s predecessors. I’m not sure that translates to notable box office figures. 2022’s Banshees was up for nine Academy Awards, but took in just $10 million domestically. One could argue that COVID was still having an effect at that time.
Nine is rumored to have a smallish wide release around 1000 venues next weekend. That’ll temper its numbers and my estimate puts it just under $4 million for starters. It’ll hope for eventual Oscar attention to keep it afloat.
Wild Horse Nine opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:
