Critically hailed horror flick Obsession and Guy Ritchie’s action thriller In the Grey hope for breakout performances as holdovers look to rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Obsession is a genuine question mark with solid reviews on its side and a chance to exceed expectations. I’m playing it safe and putting it just under double digits and that likely would mean a fifth place showing. However, a best case scenario could be a debut in third.
I don’t see In the Grey outdoing estimates and my mid single digits projection leaves Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal’s latest in sixth.
Mother’s Day weekend saw The Devil Wears Prada 2 hold up better than I assumed (more on that below). This weekend, I think Michael has a terrific shot at jumping from third to first. The musical biopic may only ease in the low 30s while Prada should decline over 40%.
Mortal Kombat II‘s plummet should be more severe in the mid 60s while The Sheep Detectives could experience a meager dip with family audiences catching up in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. Michael
Predicted Gross: $25.8 million
2. The Devil Wears Prada 2
Predicted Gross: $23 million
3. Mortal Kombat II
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. The Sheep Detectives
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
5. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
6. In the Grey
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
Box Office Results (May 8-10)
The Devil Wears Prada 2 took advantage of the Mother’s Day frame with a second weekend in 1st at $41.6 million. The sequel bested my $36 million prediction for a commendable two-week total of $143 million. It has already (not adjusted for inflation) topped the 2006 original’s $124 million domestic haul.
Mortal Kombat II kicked off at the lower end of prognoses with $38.5 million in the runner-up spot, not matching my kinder $43.1 million call. While the martial arts action sequel’s performance surpassed the $23 million that its 2021 predecessor debuted with, COVID complications and a simultaneous HBO Max release make that comparison tricky.
Michael was third in weekend #3 with $37.9 million, on target with my $37.6 million take. The record-setter for its genre grew to $241 million stateside.
The Sheep Detectives was fourth with $15 million, in line with my $14.6 million forecast. While parents and kiddos didn’t exactly (apologies) flock to it, the road ahead looks bright with encouraging word-of-mouth.
James Cameron’s concert doc Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) rounded out the top five at $7 million, not quite reaching my $8.3 million projection.
The prolific Guy Ritchie’s latest action thriller is In the Grey. The Black Bear distributed production looks to make its mark at multiplexes on May 15th. Henry Cavill and Eiza González (who costarred in the filmmaker’s 2024 effort The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare) headline here along with Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant lead Jake Gyllenhaal. The supporting cast also includes Kristopher Hivji, Fisher Stevens, and Rosamund Pike.
Those aforementioned earlier Ritchie pics (his last two titles to hit theaters) could be decent comps. Warfare slightly exceeded expectations with a $9 million start in 2024. In 2023, The Covenant performed in line with its anticipated range at just over $6 million. I don’t see anything from Grey‘s advertising that indicates it’ll break out. This could’ve easily been a streaming debut like Ritchie’s Apple TV adventure Fountain of Youth from last year.
I’ll project this fall slightly under what The Covenant achieved.
In the Grey opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million
Focus Features looks for genre fans to lock in on Obsession when it debuts May 15th. From writer/director Curry Barker, who will soon be taking over The Texas Chainsaw Massacre franchise, the horror flick originally premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Michael Johnston, Inde Navarrette, Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter lead the cast.
With a teensy budget of around $1 million, Obsession captured the attention of patrons at TIFF during midnight showings. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Focus reportedly bought the rights for $15 million with hopes of a sleeper hit.
The optimistic projections have this managing $10 million to low teens. I’m not sure the awareness factor will allow for that so I’ll go just under double digits.
Obsession opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
Video game based martial arts sequel Mortal Kombat II looks to kick off in the #1 spot while family friendly mystery The Sheep Detectives and concert pic Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
2021’s Mortal Kombat franchise reboot faced hurdles from COVID related closures, but still managed to significantly top expectations with a $21 million start. It is anticipated that the sequel could double that figure and that’s where I’m projecting it. If it underwhelms and doesn’t match my prediction, a #1 debut could be in jeopardy.
That’s because holdovers The Devil Wears Prada and Michael loom. The former performed in line with its general anticipated range (more on that below) while Michael showed sturdy legs in its sophomore outing. I do believe the former will be more front-loaded with a drop over 50% (though the Mother’s Day audience could help). If Michael falls less than 35% (definitely achievable), it could stay in the runner-up position.
The other newbies should follow. The Sheep Detectives with Hugh Jackman appears headed for a fourth place showing in the lower teens. I have the Billie Eilish concert film (directed by James Cameron!) just under double digits and rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Mortal Kombat II
Predicted Gross: $43.1 million
2. Michael
Predicted Gross: $37.6 million
3. The Devil Wears Prada 2
Predicted Gross: $36 million
4. The Sheep Detectives
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
5. Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D)
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Box Office Results (May 1-3)
While not quite beginning in grand fashion and exceeding expectations like Michael did, The Devil Wears Prada 2 still easily ruled the charts. With Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others reprising their roles from 20 years ago, the sequel hauled in $76.7 million. While that’s below my $86.5 million prediction, it is still a laudable figure. As mentioned above, the opening could be somewhat top heavy.
Michael showed commendable movement in second with a 44% decline at $54.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $51 million take as the record-setting biopic has earned $184 million in two weeks.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was third with $12.6 million, in line with my $12.1 million projection. The animated sequel crossed a milestone after five weeks with $402 million.
Project Hail Mary was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.2 million) for a seven-week tally of $318 million.
Haunted house horror flick Hokum, sporting fresh reviews, was fifth with $6.4 million. The Adam Scott headlined feature managed to outdo my $4.2 million forecast.
Finally, Andy Serkis’s animated rendering of Animal Farm flopped in sixth place with only $3.3 million though it did get beyond my $2.7 million estimate.
Songstress Billie Eilish and her sibling/producing partner Finneas O’Connell team with a rather well-known auteur for her latest concert feature when the generously titled Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) hits multiplexes on May 8th. Said director is James Cameron, taking a break from his Avatar pics in a somewhat unexpected venture (though he’s certainly familiar with 3D).
Expectations for two-time Best Song Oscar winner Eilish are obviously less than Taylor Swift’s Eras movie. The unlikely best case scenario might be the $21 million start achieved by Beyoncé’s Renaissance experience. I’m skeptical. I think it falls under double digits.
Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million
Will audiences flock to The Sheep Detectives on May 8th? Amazon MGM hopes so with the family friendly tale based on a 2005 Leonie Swann novel. Mixing mystery with comedy, Hugh Jackman leads the human cast alongside Nicholas Braun, Nicholas Galitzine, Molly Gordon, Hong Chau, and Emma Thompson. Voicing the crime solving title creatures are Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Bryan Cranston, Chris O’Dowd, Regina Hall, Patrick Stewart, Bella Ramsey, and Brett Goldstein. Kyle Balda, a veteran of the Despicable Me and Minions franchises, directs.
Critics are being kind with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 66 Metacritic. That could assist with parents taking the kids even though the source material is not huge IP domestically. A best case scenario could be a start in the high teens though I’m buying the projections in the lower to mid teens.
The Sheep Detectives opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
Animated fantasy Swapped is streaming on Netflix today from Nathan Greno, best known for co-directing Disney’s Tangled. The body swap tale features Michael B. Jordan in a voiceover role and this is notably his first project since last year’s Oscar juggernaut Sinners and its record 16 nominations (including Jordan’s Best Actor victory). Other thespians behind the mic include Juno Temple, Tracy Morgan, Cedric the Entertainer, and Justina Machado.
The review embargo lifted on the same day of release. While some critics are praising the animation itself, write-ups aren’t overly wowed with the final results. Rotten Tomatoes is at 60% with 52 on Metacritic. Those numbers indicate the combined number of Academy mentions for Sinners and Swapped will be 16 as I don’t see this is a threat in Best Animated Feature. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving in theaters five years after its predecessor, video game based Mortal Kombat II hopes to kick off with big numbers on May 8th. The martial arts sequel is actually the fourth overall feature in a franchise that began over 30 years ago, but was reinvigorated in April of 2021. Simon McQuoid returns as director with returning cast members Jessica McNamee, Josh Lawson, Ludi Lin, Mehcad Brooks, Lewis Tan, Damon Herriman, Chin Han, Tadanobu Asano, Joe Taslim, and Hiroyuki Sanada. New faces to the series include Karl Urban, Adeline Rudolph, and Tati Gabrielle.
The Warner Bros/New Line production is banking on the follow-up improving on the last entry. Keep in mind that 2021’s Kombat debuted in the midst of COVID closures and was released simultaneously on HBO Max. It still managed to exceed expectations with a $23 million premiere. That start was front-loaded with an eventual domestic tally of $42 million (the sophomore frame drop was a whopping 73%).
Even with that in mind, the outlook looks rosy that fans of the IP will be game for part II. I’m projecting it matches or even exceeds part 1’s overall take in the first weekend.
Mortal Kombat II opening weekend prediction: $43.1 million
For my The Sheep Detectives prediction, click here:
The Devil Wears Prada 2, despite a two decade long break from its predecessor, seems to be fresh in the consciousness of moviegoers. The sequel is expected to make a killing at the box office with Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci reprising their roles from the 2006 comedy. Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh join the fun with David Frankel back directing.
Prada part one managed to get awards attention 20 years ago. Meryl Streep landed her 14th nomination for Best Actress (she’s now up to 21), falling short to Helen Mirren as The Queen. The fashion centric flick also contended for Costume Design. At the Golden Globes, Streep won lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy. The pic itself was up for Best Film in that Musical or Comedy derby while Emily Blunt was among the quintet vying for Supporting Actress.
The original posted scores of 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. The follow-up? 75% on RT with 61 on Metacritic! That tracks with the general consensus that 2 is a worthy if unspectacular continuation for these characters. I doubt Streep gets Academy nod #22 for this but she could certainly get her 35th Golden Globe at-bat. A spot in Best Musical or Comedy will be dependent on level of competition.
At the Oscars, Costume Design is obviously in play. Then there’s the original song “Runway” from Lady Gaga and Doechii. It could mark the former’s 4th nom in Original Song. She won with “Shallow” from A Star Is Born while “Til It Happens to You” (2015’s The Hunting Ground) and “Hold My Hand” (2022’s Top Gun: Maverick) made the dance. The Prada track is more uptempo and may not be as Academy-friendly as the aforementioned ballads. I still wouldn’t count her out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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