Arthur Harari’s psychological thriller The Unknown premiered at Cannes and is working its way through the festival circuit with stops planned in Toronto and New York. The director is best known for cowriting the Oscar winning screenplay for 2022’s Anatomy of a Fall. The body swapping tale stars Léa Seydoux with a supporting cast including Niels Schneider, Victoire Du Bois, and Radu Jude.
Reaction from the French Riviera was tempered in its praise. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with 62 on Metacritic. I don’t see this as an awards contender and any attention for Seydoux’s acting will probably be for Gentle Monster (another Cannes debut with mixed notices). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II is an FBI agent teaming up with Mark Wahlberg’s former mobster turned informant in the 1960s set crime thriller By All Means, which opens over Labor Day weekend. Elegance Bratton directs with a supporting cast including Nicole Beharie, Giancarlo Esposito, Josh Lucas, and David Strathairn.
This end of summer holiday frame usually isn’t a fruitful one for newcomers and I’m doubtful this Paramount release will break out. Wahlberg has mostly been seen on the streaming premiere circuit as of late and viewers may simply wait until Paramount+ to check it out. The studio should consider it a plus if it tops $10 million over the four-day frame and I’ll put it a tad under.
By All Means opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
While Ridley Scott hasn’t had a major Oscar player in over a decade (2015’s The Martian), three out of his last five features have received at least one nomination. Christopher Plummer was up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s All the Money in the World, 2021’s House of Gucci got a nod in Makeup & Hairstyling, and 2023’s Napoleon scored three mentions (Costume Design, Production Design, Visual Effects). 2021’s The Last Duel and 2024’s Gladiator II went empty-handed even though both were considered possibilities in some acting and tech races.
His latest is The Dog Stars and the post-apocalyptic thriller is out this weekend. Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Allison Janney, Guy Pearce, and Benedict Wong fill out the cast. It is expected to struggle at the box office and critical reaction is weak. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 45% with Metacritic at 51. While Scott’s previous pics have at least contended or been in contention for awards, Dog won’t be expected to pop up anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
August at the box office should close out like July did with Spider-Man: Brand New Day ruling the charts. Coyote vs. Acme, the live-action/animated hybrid with a bumpy journey to theaters and Ridley Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama The Dog Stars are the fresh challengers to the throne and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Warner Bros axed Coyote as a tax write-off as the Looney Tunes tale (shot in 2022) finally was picked up by Ketchup Entertainment. They hope to squeeze an opening weekend in the high teens though my low teens projection could mean third place.
That’s because the MCU’s Spidey adventure should see a fifth weekend in 1st with a drop in the low to mid 40s. The Odyssey could rise from third to second as Insidious: Out of the Further could see a sophomore frame plummet in the 60% range.
I’m putting Further in a close race with The Dog Stars for fourth place as I don’t see the latter finding much of an audience.
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. Coyote vs. Acme
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. The Dog Stars
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Box Office Results (August 21-23)
The sixth entry of the Insidious horror franchise was no match for Tom Holland as Brand New Day spent a fourth weekend as the champ. Spidey took in $39 million, just ahead of my $38 million prediction for $854 million total. This week it will become the second highest grossing domestic feature in history (unadjusted for inflation) behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million).
Insidious: Out of the Further settled for second with $25.1 million, under my $29.7 million call. While its numbers are just fine considering the reported $18 million budget, it did not match the $33 million that predecessor The Red Door opened to in 2023.
The Odyssey was third with $19.7 million compared to my $17.1 million take as the epic adventure has amassed $539 million in six weeks. It has now surpassed The Dark Knight ($534 million) to become Christopher Nolan’s largest stateside earner.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth in weekend #2 with $9.1 million, in line with my $9.6 million forecast. The animated sequel stands at $35 million.
The End of Oak Street, another dino movie, rounded out the top five with $8.7 million (I said $8.2 million) for $37 million after two weeks.
Jason Statham’s Mutiny was sixth with $7.7 million as the star’s latest action thriller premiered close to my $7.7 million projection.
Tony, focused on a formative summer in the life of Anthony Bourdain, expanded nationwide and was seventh with $5 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall tally is $6.6 million.
Finally, comedy Spa Weekend fizzled in ninth with $3 million though that is ahead of my $2.3 million prognosis.
Based on Enid Blyton’s fantasy children’s books that started hitting bookshelves nearly 90 years ago, The Magic Faraway Tree made its way to British theaters in March and domestic venues over the weekend. Ben Gregor directs with a cast including Andrew Garfield, Claire Foy, Nonso Anozie, Nicola Coughlan, Jessica Gunning, Jennifer Saunders, and Rebecca Ferguson.
The film has performed well enough in the U.K. that sequels are planned. However, in the U.S., audiences stayed far away from it with a teensy $1.3 million gross out of the gate. The per-theater average was just over $800. Reviews are pretty decent if not impressive with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic. This is not an Oscar contender anywhere, but I will note that BAFTA could nominate it in their Best Children’s & Family Film race. My Oscar Prediction (or in this case BAFTA) posts will continue…
Despite drawing winning critical reactions, Coyote vs. Acme may face an uphill battle at the box office when it debuts August 28th. The comedic live-action/animation hybrid was famously shelved by Warner Bros. (think Batgirl) but was rescued by Ketchup Entertainment. Shot in 2022 with an initial planned release in 2023, Dave Green directs with a cast including Will Forte, Lana Condor, Tone Bell, Luis Guzmán, Martha Kelly, P.J. Byrne, and John Cena.
In March 2025, Ketchup also tried to squeeze some money out of The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie. It premiered to just $3.2 million with a final domestic take under $10 million. Coyote has 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic, but I’m skeptical family audiences will show up in huge numbers in this back to school time frame. While industry followers may be familiar with its struggles to reach the big screen, a large portion of its target audience is likely oblivious.
This still could open with more than what Earth made in total.
Coyote vs. Acme opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
Adapting Peter Heller’s 2012 novel, the post-apocalyptic tale The Dog Stars arrives in theaters August 28th. Still going strong at age 88, Ridley Scott directs a cast led by Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Allison Janney, Guy Pearce, and Benedict Wong.
Originally slated for March, Stars hits multiplexes at a sleepier box office time with summer winding down. Sporting a reported budget north of $100 million, profitability could be a challenge for 20th Century Studios production. I can’t imagine this getting over $15 million out of the gate.
I suspect this may not even reach double digits unless buzz picks up considerably in the coming days. I’ll put it in high single digits for a rough start.
The Dog Stars opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million
For the first time in several weeks, we could have a competition for the #1 spot with Insidious: Out of the Further potentially challenging Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s fourth frame at the box office. We also have Mutiny with Jason Statham hoping to land in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The sixth entry in a 13-year-old steady horror franchise, Further could scare up the mid 30s or higher in a best case scenario. If so, Spidey could be prevented from a fourth weekend atop the charts. Yet my near $30 million projection should put it in the runner-spot assuming Tom Holland’s hero sees a decline in the mid 40s to 50% range.
Mutiny could make $10 million or so if it hits the top end of its range, but my estimate would put it in sixth. I didn’t do individual posts predicting the opening grosses for Spa Weekend (a comedy with Leslie Mann and Isla Fisher) or the nationwide expansion of Anthony Bourdain early years biopic Tony. I don’t figure either will place higher than 6th. I’ll say $6 million for Tony and just $2.3 million for Spa.
The Odyssey should drop to 3rd after three weeks in 2nd in the high teens with PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie and dino movie The End of Oak Street in 4th and 5th. As for the latter, it may suffer a significant decline considering the meh B Cinemascore grade.
Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $38 million
2. Insidious: Out of the Further
Predicted Gross: $29.7 million
3. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
5. The End of Oak Street
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
6. Mutiny
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (August 14-16)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieved the second best third outing at domestic multiplexes ever with $70.7 million, swinging beyond my $60.2 million call. That’s well behind the $90 million third weekend for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and just in front of Avatar‘s $68 million. The MCU’s return to dominance stands at $786 million stateside thus far.
The Odyssey, despite serious competition, held in second with $23.6 million and ahead of my $21 million prediction. The epic tale grew to $505 million after five weeks.
David Robert Mitchell’s The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and lots of CG prehistoric creatures had a softish landing in third with $21 million, easily under my $31.1 million take. As mentioned, so-so word-of-mouth might cause faster extinction in theaters.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth with $20.2 million, a tad below predecessor The Mighty Movie though ahead of my $18.7 million projection.
Katseye: Wild Hearts was fifth with $3.9 million. It admittedly was not on my radar and I didn’t do a prediction post for the documentary about the L.A. based pop group.
Finally, The Brink of War from Angel Studios faltered in seventh with $2.6 million (I said $4.5 million). Older audiences didn’t turn up for the drama about Reagan and Gorbachev’s 1986 summit in Iceland.
Documentarian Poh Si Teng’s feature-length debut American Doctor follows three American physicians into Gaza and it is being heralded as a viscerally emotional and effective work. Like most docs that generate awards buzz, it debuted at the Sundance Film Festival and is in limited release as of this past weekend.
Since its Park City premiere, it played South by Southwest and other fests to additional acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 87. This is near the top of possibilities for recognition from the Academy. In my latest predictions post published yesterday, I ranked it second to Once Upon a Time in Harlem. While the Academy is known for high-profile snubs when it comes to documentaries, expect to see plenty of prognosticators prescribing a nomination for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Jason Statham reunites with his Plane director Jean-François Richet for action thriller Mutiny on August 21st. Costarring Annabelle Wallis, Jason Wong, Roland Møller, Arnas Fedaravicius, and Adrian Lester, Lionsgate hopes for a midsize hit like other Statham efforts.
Originally slated for January, it follows the lead’s Shelter which did come out in January. While 2024’s The Beekeeper collected $16.6 million out of the gate ($66 million total domestic) and 2025’s A Working Man did $15.5 million and $37 million overall, Shelter faltered. It debuted to only $5.5 million and then $12 million all in.
I think Mutiny manages to get beyond Shelter, but not double digits like the aforementioned flicks.
Mutiny opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
For my Insidious: Out of the Further prediction, click here:
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