99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 28th Edition

As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.

Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.

We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.

Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.

Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.

Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.

You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)

12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)

14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)

17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)

22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)

15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven

Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)

9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)

11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Disclosure Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (E)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tony

Young Washington Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios hopes audiences will seek a Founding Father drama over the Independence Day weekend when Young Washington debuts on July 3rd. Directed by Jon Erwin (I Can Only Imagine, American Underdog), William Franklyn-Miller plays our first POTUS in his formative years. Costars include Mary-Louise Parker, Kelsey Grammer, Andy Serkis, and Ben Kingsley.

Three summers ago, Sound of Freedom from the same studio shocked box office prognosticators with a Fourth of July frame gross of over $40 million for the extended six-day earnings. July 4th was on a Tuesday that year and its traditional Friday to Sunday gross was $19 million. It would be a heavenly result for Angel to repeat that same magic. However, with the 4th on the Saturday, the dynamic has changed. Projections for Young Washington are all over the map with some as low as $10 million from Friday to Sunday and the most optimistic topping $30 million.

I am not falling on the side of the high end estimates though the timing of the release is shrewd and this distributor has certainly exceeded expectations before. On the flip side, they’ve had a number of so-so performances since Freedom. I’ll say high teens is where it lands.

Young Washington opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million

For my Minions & Monsters prediction, click here:

Minions & Monsters Box Office Prediction

Minions & Monsters Box Office Prediction

Looking to set off fireworks over the long holiday weekend, Minions & Monsters attacks multiplexes on July 1st. The seventh overall feature in the Despicable Me/Minions sagas, the animated comedy finds creator Pierre Coffin directing and voicing the beloved animated yellow creatures. The Illumination Entertainment production also features vocal contributions from Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Zoey Deutch, Bobby Moynihan, and Trey Parker.

A prequel set in the 1920s (nearly a half century before 2015’s Minions), Monsters should stay the course for a remarkably durable franchise. Early critical response is thumbing up as kids and parents should turn out in droves. That said, the seventh offering (behind four Despicable Me entries and two Minions flicks) is unlikely to threaten series best figures. There’s also Toy Story 5 in its third outing and it should still be performing well.

Illumination has made it a habit to open these pics in the 4th of July corridor or a tad later in the month. Minions hold the highest overall 3-day debut at $115 million right after the holiday. 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru opened on July 1 with a three-day take of $107 million. For this one, a Wednesday beginning is occurring. The Fourth of July is landing on a Saturday. Based on historical precedence, that should mean a dip in earnings on that date since plenty of families will be preoccupied with the 250th celebration. It also means the Wednesday and Thursday numbers should play like a traditional weekend date.

I’ll project a mid 60s gross from Friday to Sunday while it gets above nine digits for the five-day.

Minions & Monsters opening weekend prediction: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Young Washington prediction, click here:

Young Washington Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Couture

As a director battling an illness while in Paris for Fashion Week, Angelina Jolie headlines Couture. Out in limited release this weekend, Alice Winocour writes and directs with a supporting cast including Louis Garrel, Ella Rumpf, and Garance Marillier.

Couture was first screened at the Toronto Film Festival last September where it failed to fashion much buzz for itself. Critics are unimpressed with 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 49 Metacritic. While some reviews are being kind to Jolie, this appears to be an awards non-starter. That even includes in Best Costume Design despite taking its title from the high-end brand. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Supergirl

Supergirl marks the second feature in the new James Gunn curated iteration of the DC Universe behind last summer’s Superman reboot. Directed by Craig Gillespie, Milly Alcock (who briefly appeared in the Man of Steel’s 2025 adventure) plays the title character. David Corenswet appears as Supes with the supporting cast including Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, and Jason Momoa as bad guy Lobo (not Aquaman).

Box office expectations aren’t near as high for this DC effort compared to what was happening a year ago. Reviews were mixed on Superman. However, reaction to Supergirl is more negative. While Alcock is getting some decent ink, Rotten Tomatoes is at 57% with 48 on Metacritic.

The only awards races worth considering are Visual Effects, Sound, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Superman didn’t get into any of those despite being shortlisted in the first two. Supergirl‘s best shot might be in Makeup and Hairstyling where Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy trilogy managed three nominations. Interestingly critics are comparing Supergirl less with Guardians and more with Mad Max flicks. Like 2024’s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, the chances are strong this will receive zero noms. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

June 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Supergirl will attempt to fly high and challenge Toy Story 5 for box office bragging rights as June closes out, but it faces considerable odds. The DC Studios adventure opens alongside Johnny Knoxville and his band of pranksters in Jackass: Best and Last. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Supergirl Box Office Prediction
Jackass: Best and Last Box Office Prediction

The rosiest estimates have Supergirl approaching $60 million. Even if that occurs, it’s probably not enough to catch Toy Story 5 which should ease in the mid 40s-50 percent range. I’m taking the under with Supergirl and projecting mid 40s. That would leave it well behind in the runner-up position.

Jackass: Best and Last should the first of the five big screen franchise entries to open under $20 million. My low teens forecast would mean a third place showing as the series may be running out of steam with the alleged final edition.

Holdovers Obsession and Disclosure Day may flip spots as the former should have a smaller decline.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $80.6 million

2. Supergirl

Predicted Gross: $44.5 million

3. Jackass: Best and Last

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $9 million

5. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

Box Office Results (June 19-21)

Toy Story 5 had the second best Disney/Pixar sequel opening in history. That also means it had the second strongest beginning for any animated feature behind Incredibles 2. The return of Woody and Buzz kicked off in line with expectations at $159.6 million. I was a bit more generous with $166.8 million, but this is still a massively pleasing result for the Mouse House.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, after a premiere at the bottom end of its anticipated range, fell a troubling 60% in its sophomore outing to $17.7 million. I figured it would hold a bit better at $21.5 million. That B Cinemascore grade is evidenced by the performance.

Obsession made $13.3 million in third as it’s finally starting to drop from week to week. I had it at $15.2 million and the horror phenomenon has hauled in $215 million after six weeks.

A24 smash Backrooms was fourth with $7.1 million (I said $6.6 million) for a four-week tally of $175 million. The news wasn’t good for A24 everywhere (more on that in a second).

Scary Movie rounded out the top five with $6.3 million, on target with my $6.1 million call. The spoof sequel is near nine digits with $97 million in three weeks.

That aforementioned A24 bad news came from The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman. With middling reviews and non-existent buzz, it bombed in 8th place with $2.8 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Leviticus

In a summer dominated by one massive low-budget horror success story, Leviticus is quietly making its own impression. The Australian coming-of-age supernatural tale marks the directorial debut of Adrian Chiarella. Joe Bird and Stacey Clausen headline with a supporting cast including Jeremy Blewitt, Ewen Leslie, and Mia Wasikowska. The film premiered at Sundance back in January with Neon snatching up stateside distribution rights for $5 million.

Out this weekend on just over 1000 screens, Leviticus might make close to that pickup tag right away (and outgross the higher profile The Death of Robin Hood). Mixing a queer love story with religious overtones and horror elements, critics have been praising Chiarella’s first feature. Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with an 83 on Metacritic.

I could see the Indie Spirit Awards paying attention, but the Academy could be a stretch unless Neon pushes a campaign in Original Screenplay. I suspect Oscar voters will instead look to Obsession to honor the genre. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Jackass: Best and Last Box Office Prediction

The merrily sadistic stunt performers led by Johnny Knoxville return to multiplexes for the final time via Jackass: Best and Last on June 26th. Spawned from the MTV smash show that premiered in 2000, series co-creator Jeff Tremaine directs. In addition to Knoxville, original Jackassers Steve-O, Chris Pontius, Wee Man, Preston Lacy, Dave England, and Danger Ehren are back putting their bodies in harm’s way. Newer cast members Poopies (marking the first time I’ve uttered that word on the blog), Zach Holmes, Rachel Wolfson, and Jasper Dolphin round out the cast.

This is the fifth official entry (excluding successful 2013 spin-off Bad Grandpa) in the cinematic franchise and each has taken in $20M+ out of the gate. 2002’s Jackass: The Movie debuted to $22 million with 2006 follow-up Jackass: Number Two starting at $29 million. In 2010, Jackass 3D set high marks for its premiere ($50 million) and overall domestic haul ($117 million). 2022’s Jackass Forever kicked off in line with the first two ($23 million). However, its $57 million stateside gross is the lowest of the quartet.

Unless interest is higher due to the finale status, Best and Last should continue the downward trend. The older this franchise gets, the less younger viewers there are with a nostalgic fondness for it. This could be the first Jackass flick to fall under that $20 million figure and by quite a bit.

Jackass: Best and Last opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million

For my Supergirl prediction, click here:

Supergirl Box Office Prediction

Supergirl Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros looks for Supergirl to fly high on June 26th as the second feature since James Gunn and Peter Safran took over the DC Studios. Hitting multiplexes a year after Superman had solid if not otherworldly box office results, Craig Gillespie directs Milly Alcock in the title role. Costars include Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, Emily Beecham, David Corenswet (reprising his turn as the Man of Steel), and Jason Momoa (not as Aquaman but as the villainous Lobo).

Last year, Superman took in $125 million in its opening weekend with $354 million overall domestically. Expectations are nowhere near that range for the second feature about Kal-El’s cousin. The first arrived in 1984 with Helen Slater portraying the title character. It was a significant flop.

Supergirl will try to avoid being the same. Estimates are in the mid 50s range. Anything above $60 million would be considered a pleasant surprise. I’m taking the under and going mid 40s.

Supergirl opening weekend prediction: $44.5 million

For my Jackass: Best and Last prediction, click here:

Jackass: Best and Last Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Toy Story 5

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story franchise has had a storied history at the Oscars and it would be more impressive had the Best Animated Feature category existed prior to 2001. The original from 1995 and its 1999 sequel would have been near certainties for that statue (even with part two facing serious competition from The Iron Giant, South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut, and Princess Mononoke). In 2010, Toy Story 3 not only won the animated race, but was up for Best Picture. Nine years later, the fourth feature didn’t nab a BP slot but did take the animation prize.

That brings us to Toy Story 5, out this weekend. Andrew Stanton, who’s already taken Best Animated Feature twice for Finding Nemo and Wall-E, finally takes over directorial duties after co-creating the series over 30 years ago. Tom Hanks and Tim Allen are back voicing the iconic characters of Woody and Buzz along with returnees Joan Cusack, Tony Hale, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn, Blake Clark, Annie Potts, Bonnie Hunt, Melissa Villaseñor, Kristen Schaal, Keanu Reeves, and Ally Maki. Newcomers behind the mic include Greta Lee, Conan O’Brien, Craig Robinson, Ernie Hudson, Bad Bunny, and Alan Cumming.

Unsurprisingly, reviews for Toy Story 5 are just fine… with a caveat. While the Rotten Tomatoes meter is 94%, Metacritic is at 74. That’s easily the lowest of the quintet with second lowest being #4 at 84. For that matter, that RT score is the “lowest” as well with the next being the fourth again at 97%.

Why is this important? I think it tells us that, like #4, a Best Picture nomination isn’t happening. Nor is this in the mix for Adapted Screenplay where #3 competed. It also opens the door to #5 not being a shoo-in to win Animated Feature though we’ll see what competition arises in the months to come. Recent examples of Mouse House sequels not taking that trophy are Incredibles 2, Inside Out 2 and Zootopia 2.

Every previous Toy Story flick has seen an Original Song nominated with Randy Newman’s “We Belong Together” victorious for #3. It’s hard to imagine Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” not getting one of the five spots. It’s already a radio mainstay and would mark the pop star’s first Oscar nod. This is a golden opportunity for the Academy to have her perform at the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…