Will audiences flock to The Sheep Detectives on May 8th? Amazon MGM hopes so with the family friendly tale based on a 2005 Leonie Swann novel. Mixing mystery with comedy, Hugh Jackman leads the human cast alongside Nicholas Braun, Nicholas Galitzine, Molly Gordon, Hong Chau, and Emma Thompson. Voicing the crime solving title creatures are Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Bryan Cranston, Chris O’Dowd, Regina Hall, Patrick Stewart, Bella Ramsey, and Brett Goldstein. Kyle Balda, a veteran of the Despicable Me and Minions franchises, directs.
Critics are being kind with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 66 Metacritic. That could assist with parents taking the kids even though the source material is not huge IP domestically. A best case scenario could be a start in the high teens though I’m buying the projections in the lower to mid teens.
The Sheep Detectives opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
Animated fantasy Swapped is streaming on Netflix today from Nathan Greno, best known for co-directing Disney’s Tangled. The body swap tale features Michael B. Jordan in a voiceover role and this is notably his first project since last year’s Oscar juggernaut Sinners and its record 16 nominations (including Jordan’s Best Actor victory). Other thespians behind the mic include Juno Temple, Tracy Morgan, Cedric the Entertainer, and Justina Machado.
The review embargo lifted on the same day of release. While some critics are praising the animation itself, write-ups aren’t overly wowed with the final results. Rotten Tomatoes is at 60% with 52 on Metacritic. Those numbers indicate the combined number of Academy mentions for Sinners and Swapped will be 16 as I don’t see this is a threat in Best Animated Feature. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving in theaters five years after its predecessor, video game based Mortal Kombat II hopes to kick off with big numbers on May 8th. The martial arts sequel is actually the fourth overall feature in a franchise that began over 30 years ago, but was reinvigorated in April of 2021. Simon McQuoid returns as director with returning cast members Jessica McNamee, Josh Lawson, Ludi Lin, Mehcad Brooks, Lewis Tan, Damon Herriman, Chin Han, Tadanobu Asano, Joe Taslim, and Hiroyuki Sanada. New faces to the series include Karl Urban, Adeline Rudolph, and Tati Gabrielle.
The Warner Bros/New Line production is banking on the follow-up improving on the last entry. Keep in mind that 2021’s Kombat debuted in the midst of COVID closures and was released simultaneously on HBO Max. It still managed to exceed expectations with a $23 million premiere. That start was front-loaded with an eventual domestic tally of $42 million (the sophomore frame drop was a whopping 73%).
Even with that in mind, the outlook looks rosy that fans of the IP will be game for part II. I’m projecting it matches or comes close to matching part 1’s overall take in the first weekend.
Mortal Kombat II opening weekend prediction: $41.2 million
For my The Sheep Detectives prediction, click here:
The Devil Wears Prada 2, despite a two decade long break from its predecessor, seems to be fresh in the consciousness of moviegoers. The sequel is expected to make a killing at the box office with Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci reprising their roles from the 2006 comedy. Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh join the fun with David Frankel back directing.
Prada part one managed to get awards attention 20 years ago. Meryl Streep landed her 14th nomination for Best Actress (she’s now up to 21), falling short to Helen Mirren as The Queen. The fashion centric flick also contended for Costume Design. At the Golden Globes, Streep won lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy. The pic itself was up for Best Film in that Musical or Comedy derby while Emily Blunt was among the quintet vying for Supporting Actress.
The original posted scores of 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. The follow-up? 75% on RT with 61 on Metacritic! That tracks with the general consensus that 2 is a worthy if unspectacular continuation for these characters. I doubt Streep gets Academy nod #22 for this but she could certainly get her 35th Golden Globe at-bat. A spot in Best Musical or Comedy will be dependent on level of competition.
At the Oscars, Costume Design is obviously in play. Then there’s the original song “Runway” from Lady Gaga and Doechii. It could mark the former’s 4th nom in Original Song. She won with “Shallow” from A Star Is Born while “Til It Happens to You” (2015’s The Hunting Ground) and “Hold My Hand” (2022’s Top Gun: Maverick) made the dance. The Prada track is more uptempo and may not be as Academy-friendly as the aforementioned ballads. I still wouldn’t count her out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two decades after the original was a blockbuster that showed staying power, The Devil Wears Prada 2 should fashion an impressive start to kick off May. We also have haunted house horror flick Hokum and Andy Serkis directed animated adaptation of Animal Farm debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and others are back for Prada 2 in a sequel that seems to have audiences with a genuine eagerness to revisit the characters. The original opened to $27 million, but the follow-up is expected to triple those numbers. A best case scenario could be nine digits. I have it in the mid 80s as nostalgia and a high female turnout should push it to a runaway #1 debut.
Expectations are more tempered with other newbies. My mid single digits projection for the well-reviewed Hokum with Adam Scott should mean a fifth place showing.
As for Animal Farm from Angel Studios, meh reviews and a quiet marketing campaign could put this in low single digits. My $2.7 million forecast certainly leave it outside of the high five.
Besides the Prada premiere, the second major storyline is how Michael will perform in its sophomore frame after a sizzling beginning (more on that below). The musical biopic wasn’t a hit with many critics (38% on Rotten Tomatoes), but patrons are digging it as evidenced by the 97% audience score on the same site. Encouraging word-of-mouth might result in a drop in the 40% range. That’s similar to where Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis eased in their second weekends. However, due to the sheer size of its performance, I will hedge and say a mid to high 40s drop could occur.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary should respectively move down a slot to third and fourth and add to their considerable hauls.
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:
1. The Devil Wears Prada 2
Predicted Gross: $86.5 million
2. Michael
Predicted Gross: $51 million
3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
4. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
5. Hokum
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (April 24-26)
Michael wanted to be startin’ with the greatest opening ever for its genre and it achieved that and then some. The look at Michael Jackson’s first two decades of massive fame stunned with $97.2 million compared to my $81 million prediction. That blows away the former musical biopic record of $60 million held by Straight Outta Compton. It will need $216 million to claim the largest domestic take for that genre held by Bohemian Rhapsody. That should happen.
After three weeks in the pole position, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie was second with $20.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.9 million take as the animated sequel grew to $385 million. A gross over $400 million is set to arrive by this weekend.
Project Hail Mary was third with $12.8 million as its 37% fall in weekend #6 was more Earth bound than previous meager declines. The sci-fi awards hopeful sits at $305 million.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy held a bit better in frame #2 than I figured with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million call. The poorly received attempted franchise reboot has made only $23 million after two weeks.
The Drama rounded out the top five with $2.6 million (I said $2.8 million) for a four-week total of $44 million.
A family-friendly comedy and a whodunit, The Sheep Detectives arrives in theaters May 8th. Kyle Balda, a veteran of animated features including Minions and Despicable Me 3, directs. The live-action cast is led by Hugh Jackman with Nicholas Braun, Nicholas Galitzine, Molly Gordon, Hong Chau, and Emma Thompson providing support. Voicing the wooly creatures involved are Julia Louis-Dreyus, Bryan Cranston, Chris O’Dowd, Regina Hall, Patrick Stewart, Bella Ramsey, and Brett Goldstein.
Critics are being kind with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score and more down-to-earth 67 Metacritic. Amazon MGM are hoping kids flock to it though this shouldn’t be an awards player despite a smattering of Babe comparisons. There could be one exception as the BAFTAs could put it up in their Best Children’s & Family Film category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sophy Romvari directs the semi-autobiographical family drama Blue Heron which became a festival darling prior to its Canadian debut this month. The cast includes Eylul Guven, Amy Zimmer, Ádám Tompa, and Iringó Réti. At last year’s Toronto Film Festival, Heron picked up a Best Canadian Discovery prize. That same city’s critics association bestowed their Best First Feature award to Romvari’s feature-length debut.
As more reviews have come in, the Rotten Tomatoes score has stayed at 100% with Metacritic at a noticeable 93. Janus Films is handling stateside distribution. Canada and Hungary are the two countries that handled financial backing. If either one of them select this as their candidate for International Feature Film at the Oscars, it could certainly be in the mix.
Don’t be surprised if our neighbor to the north does so. 2003’s The Barbarian Invasions is the only Canadian title to win IFF. Four other pics from that nation have made the quintet in the 21st century with 2012’s War Witch as the last nominee.
The Hungarians also have a track record with 2015’s Son of Saul as their sole 21st century winner while 2017’s On Body and Soul was nominated. Either nation could have a genuine contender with Blue Heron and this is one to keep on your list for consideration. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Unless I’m vastly underestimating the number of toddlers clamoring for George Orwell adaptations, Animal Farm could face a tough road when it opens May 1st. Based on the author’s 1945 dystopian fable, Andy Serkis directs the animated treatment with an all-star voice cast. That includes Seth Rogen, Gaten Matatrazzo, Kieran Culkin, Glenn Close, Laverne Cox, Steve Buscemi, Woody Harrelson, Jim Parsons, Kathleen Turner, Iman Vellani, and Serkis himself voicing multiple parts.
Precious dollars might be hard to secure. Angel Studios is handling distribution duties and their marketing footprint appears light. Buzz is also quiet and the mostly mediocre reviews (36% Rotten Tomatoes, 40 Metacritic) should give parents pause to take the kiddos. Add all that up and this Farm might yielded a return in the low single digits.
Animal Farm opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million
For my The Devil Wears Prada 2 prediction, click here:
After a South by Southwest premiere that yielded positive word-of-mouth, Damian McCarthy’s Hokum is out May 1st. The Irish set haunted house tale features Adam Scott, better known for his TV work in Parks and Recreation and Succession. Costars include Peter Coonan, David Wilmot, Florence Ordesh, and Austin Amelio.
The Neon distributed effort truly has critics on its side with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes rating and a 79 Metacritic. The awareness factor, however, for this scary movie appears low. A best case scenario could be an overperformance in the higher single digits, but I’m skeptical. A low bar could be an opening similar to Presence, another Neon fright fest from last year. It made $3.3 million for its start. I’ll give Hokum a bit more.
Hokum opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million
For my The Devil Wears Prada 2 prediction, click here:
Angel Studios is distributing Andy Serkis’s animated rendering of George Orwell’s novella Animal Farm, out May 1st. With a screenplay from Nicholas Stoller, the third cinematic adaptation of the source material boasts an impressive voice cast including Seth Rogen, Gaten Matarazzo, Kieran Culkin, Glenn Close, Laverne Cox, Steve Buscemi, Woody Harrelson, Jim Parsons, Kathleen Turner, Iman Vellani, and Mr. Serkis himself.
Reviews are not precious. The middling reaction is evidenced by the 36% Rotten Tomatoes score and 42 Metacritic. Those results make it clear that you shouldn’t bet that Farm will be a factor in the animated awards races months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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