Sony is looking for Goat to bring in herds of families to multiplexes this weekend. The animated sports comedy from director Tyree Dillihay features an all-star voice cast including Caleb McLaughlin, Gabrielle Union, Aaron Pierre, Nicola Coughlan, David Harbour, Nick Kroll, Jenifer Lewis, Patton Oswalt, Jelly Roll, Jennifer Hudson, Sherry Cola, Eduardo Franco, Andrew Santino, Bobby Lee, and actual all-star Stephen Curry.
While reviews aren’t great, they certainly aren’t baaaaaad (I’m sorry). Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% while Metacritic (as it often is) shows a more telling 59 number. In my estimation, Best Animated Feature could be a stretch. However, we don’t know at this early juncture how strong the race will be. Kris Bowers, an Original Score nominee for The Wild Robot, is behind the music here. Early critical reaction doesn’t indicate he’ll get a second nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the quintet of Supporting Actor nominees is Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2000: Supporting Actor (Traffic) – WON; 2003: Supporting Actor (21 Grams) – lost to Tim Robbins for Mystic River
The Case for Benicio del Toro:
As sensei Sergio in Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-nominated pic, del Toro would certainly win if this competition were based on internet memes. Outside of that, his third appearance in this category has been preceded with noms everywhere else including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG Actor. If Another takes BP (where it’s the frontrunner), an acting victory seems likely to come with it. del Toro is coming off an impressive 2025 with his work here and as lead in Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme.
The Case Against Benicio del Toro:
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) took Critics Choice and Stellan Skasgård (Sentimental Value) got the Globe while we await SAG Actor and BAFTA. He could vote split with his costar Sean Penn. Teyana Taylor, his cast mate contending in Supporting Actress, appears best poised for a Battle acting win.
The Verdict:
Of the four acting derbies, this might be the most unsettled. I still think Benicio needs SAG or BAFTA (that one seems more out of reach) to have any real shot at Oscar.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first directing nominee and that’s del Toro’s auteur Paul Thomas Anderson…
In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.
Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.
Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.
As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for a bit less with $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday) and $3.3 million (Friday to Monday).
Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.
Here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. Wuthering Heights
Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)
2. Goat
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)
3. Crime 101
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)
4. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)
5. Solo Mio
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)
Box Office Results (February 6-8)
Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.
Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.
Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.
Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.
Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.
The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.
Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value.
Previous Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Elle Fanning:
The 27-year-old has amassed numerous nods for her TV work on The Great, but her appearance in Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama is her first Oscar at bat. She was nominated at Critics Choice and by several regional critics groups. Value also had a slight overperformance with nine mentions from the Academy.
The Case Against Elle Fanning:
She is likely to vote split with her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Fanning did not receive nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG Actor, and wasn’t even shortlisted at BAFTA. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) have taken the Globe and Critics Choice, respectively. The best shot at a victory for this cast is in Supporting Actor with Stellan Skarsgård.
The Verdict:
Most prognosticators did not have Fanning in their quintet. I will give myself a pat on the back for predicting her, but I’m under no illusions that she is a threat to win.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first Supporting Actor write-up and that’s Benicio del Toro from One Battle After Another…
Mixing sci-fi with action and comedy, Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die is out over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend. It will try and carve its niche among a handful of newcomers. Gore Verbinski, known to many moviegoers as the maker of Pirates of the Caribbean entries 1-3, is behind the camera for the first time in nearly a decade since A Cure for Wellness. Sam Rockwell headlines with Haley Lu Richardson, Michael Peña, Zazie Beetz, Asim Chaudhry, Tom Taylor, and Juno Temple providing support.
Fun was initially screened at Fantastic Fest last fall and early reviews are fresh with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Despite the praise, this could face tough odds finding a significant audience. I do have it debuting slightly higher than Cold Storage which will compete for a similar demographic. However, getting to $5 million for over four-day might be a tall order.
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $4 million (Friday to Monday)
Emerald Fennell’s loose interpretation of Emily Brontë’s nearly 180-year-old romance Wuthering Heights is out Friday and expected to do brisk business at the box office. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi (currently up for Supporting Actor in Frankenstein) headline with Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell costarring.
Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. In 2020, Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five Oscar nominations – Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), and Film Editing with a victory for the auteur in Original Screenplay. 2023 follow-up Saltburn drew reviews more in line with Heights and landed zero mentions by the Academy.
Fennell’s third feature might split the difference. I do not anticipate nods in the major races considering the more divisive word-of-mouth. It could, however, show up in down-the-line competitions like Costume Design (where inclusion seems likely), Production Design, or one of the original songs from Charli XCX. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
While his Stranger Things costars Caleb McLaughlin and David Harbour provide voiceover work for Goat next weekend, Joe Keery is part of the cast for horror comedy Cold Storage. Opening February 13th, Jonny Campbell directs with a script from veteran scribe David Koepp. Besides Keery, Georgina Campbell, Sosie Bacon, Vanessa Redgrave, Lesley Manville, and Liam Neeson appear.
With solid reviews thus far, Storage will attempt to stake its claim among numerous competitors debuting over the Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. It might have a tricky time finding its niche. Outside of some franchise stalwarts, mixing these two genres is a risky gambit.
I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my forecast. My hunch is it doesn’t even reach mid single digits over the three or four-day premiere.
Cold Storage opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $3.3 million (Friday to Monday)
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the Best Actor five is on the table and it’s Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2017 – Actor (Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour; 2024 – Actor (A Complete Unknown) – lost to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
The Case for Timothée Chalamet:
After likely being runner-up last year, Chalamet has drawn career best reviews as the singularly focused ping pong player in Josh Safdie’s sports drama. Precursor appreciation has followed with victories at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice while he awaits the BAFTAs and SAG Actor. While he’s only 30, Chalamet’s body of work in recent years is seen as worthy of recognition and Marty is a supreme vehicle for it.
The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:
The Academy left his costars out of contention including Odessa A’Zion (who I predicted for inclusion). A domino effect for either One Battle After Another or Sinners could create an opening for Leonardo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan, respectively.
The Verdict:
Unless one of the upcoming precursors provides an upset, it appears the third time is probably going to be the charm for Chalamet.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actress and that’s Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the Best Actress quintet is up for consideration and that’s Jessie Buckley in Hamnet.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2021 – Supporting Actress (The Lost Daughter) – lost to Ariana DeBose for West Side Story
The Case for Jessie Buckley:
As Agnes, the grief stricken spouse of William Shakespeare, Buckley’s weighty role has been seen as a major contender since the project was announced. The buzz intensified after its Telluride premiere in early fall. Buckley has already picked up hardware at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice and is awaiting word on potential victories at BAFTA and SAG Actor.
The Case Against Jessie Buckley:
Hamnet had a couple of unexpected misses on Oscar nomination morning including the omission of her costar Paul Mescal in Supporting Actor. Sentimental Value did slightly better than expected and its potential momentum could benefit Renate Reinsve.
The Verdict:
Of the four acting competitions, a Buckley win might be the easiest to call. Four years ago, she was a surprise nominee in supporting for The Lost Daughter. A loss for her first shot in lead would also be surprising unless there’s an upset at SAG or BAFTA.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme…
Thor, Storm, Hulk, and Joan Baez populate the cast of Bart Layton’s thriller Crime 101 out February 13th. Looking to serve as counterprogramming to Wuthering Heights and Goat during the Valentine’s/President’s Day long weekend, the Amazon MGM production stars Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Barry Keoghan, Monica Barbaro, Corey Hawkins, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Nick Nolte, and Halle Berry.
Originally slated for release last year, 101 is the type of project that just as easily could’ve premiered via streaming. A worst case scenario would be a debut below $10 million. However, movies tend to exceed expectations and not underwhelm during this particular weekend.
I am taking the over and projecting a three-day in the low teens with a couple million extra when counting Monday.
Crime 101 opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $15.2 million (Friday to Monday)
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