In 2010, David Fincher’s The Social Network was an awards powerhouse with 10 nominations including Best Picture, Director, and Jesse Eisenberg in Actor (it would lose all three to The King’s Speech). It did emerge victorious for its Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Original Score. Fincher and Eisenberg are not involved in the sequel The Social Reckoning which releases this weekend. Network‘s writer Aaron Sorkin returns in that role and in the director’s chair. Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White, Bill Burr, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, and Billy Magnussen lead the cast with Jeremy Strong taking over from Eisenberg as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.
With the review embargo having lifted just a day before its theatrical debut, it seems like Reckoning will not resonate with awards voters. Rotten Tomatoes is at 70% with Metacritic only at 50. Madison and Strong are getting by relatively unscathed (the same cannot be said for Sorkin’s script according to several critics). However, I don’t see Madison (in her first role since her Oscar-winning lead performance in 2024’s Anora), Strong, or anyone else generating much chatter for their work. A nominee two years ago for The Apprentice, I’ve had Strong listed in my Supporting Actor possibilities in the top 10 for months (though not as a nominee). There’s a good chance he drops out of contention altogether. I’m struggling to see Social getting in anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Recounting the company history of OpenAI, Artificial is a new tale involving a web-related reckoning from director Luca Guadagnino. Originally an Amazon MGM release, the studio controversially dropped the feature after it was completed with Neon eventually snatching the rights. Said to be a dark comedy, Andrew Garfield is OpenAI CEO Sam Altman with Yura Borisov as the company’s cofounder. The supporting cast includes Monica Barbaro, Cooper Hoffman, Jason Schwartzman, Chris O’Dowd, Ike Barinholtz, and Mark Rylance. It premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its Christmas Day theatrical bow.
Based on initial reaction, Artificial could enter the chat as an awards contender in several races. That begins with Best Picture. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 92% with Metacritic at 76. I view this as a hopeful in the 9-10 range of the 10 BP possibilities though it certainly may miss the cut entirely. An Original Screenplay nod is also feasible.
An announcement earlier this week confirmed that Borisov will be submitted in lead Actor with Barbaro vying for Supporting Actress. Both were nominees two years ago in the supporting fields for Anora and A Complete Unknown respectively. I am skeptical either get in. Garfield is another story. He’s a two-time nominee in Best Actor for 2016’s Hacksaw Ridge and 2021’s Tick, Tick… Boom! Neon is campaigning him in Supporting Actor and I do believe he stands a solid shot at making that quintet. I’ve yet to predict Garfield, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update for what sounds like a juicy role. As for the down-the-line attention, the score from Blur/Gorillaz frontman Damon Albarn is getting noticed.
While Challengers and Queer and After the Hunt ultimately became non-factors with the Academy, Artificial seems like Guadagnino’s first real shot at multiple noms since 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Horror looks to rule the charts with Jessica Chastain as the creepy Other Mommy while Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:
With an effective trailer and a likely hunger for scary material as we’re into the month of October, my high 20s projection for Mommy easily gives it the victory.
The Social Reckoning may have to settle for anywhere between third and fifth place. A sort of sequel to 2010’s acclaimed The Social Network, this updated look at Facebook/Meta isn’t carrying the type of buzz that greeted its predecessor. I have this making only a third of what Network achieved over a decade and a half ago.
As for holdovers, Verity had a fantastic opening (more on that below). The C+ Cinemascore grade is a bit troubling and a 60% sophomore dip would put it in a distant second. With my soft outlook for Reckoning, I’ll say that Resident Evil narrowly edges it out for third with Heart of the Beast rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $29.2 million
2. Verity
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. Resident Evil
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. The Social Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Heart of the Beast
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (October 2-4)
A couple weeks back, I couldn’t have imagined not discussing where Digger would place in the top five in its sophomore frame, but here we are.
We will get to Tom Cruise’s box office disaster shortly though we’ll start with positive results. Verity, based on the Colleen Hoover novel, opened at the highest end of expectations with $32 million. The thriller starring Anne Hathaway (in her fifth 2026 flick) and Dakota Johnson blew past my $20.4 million prediction. As mentioned, it should see a large decline this weekend but this is a fine result for Amazon MGM.
Resident Evil stayed in second place with $12.6 million, in range with my $12 million projection. The video game based horror tale has taken in $125 million after three weeks.
Heart of the Beast was third with $10.8 million, on pace with my $11.2 million call. The Brad Pitt/German Shepherd survival tale is up to $38 million in two weeks.
Digger was fourth and marked Tom Cruise’s lowest opening since 2007’s Lions for Lambs (in which he was a supporting player). With mixed reviews and a C+ Cinemascore, audiences and critics were divided and the result was only $8 million compared to my $10.3 million forecast. Warner Bros as we know it (after Paramount’s acquisition) goes out with a whimper as this will be a significant money loser for the studio.
Primetime rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. Also with $8 million, the two-week tally is $34 million.
Finally, last week’s #1 Avengers: Endgame Encore fell a lot further than I figured in seventh with $4.4 million. That’s an 83% decline and I was far more generous at $10 million. Don’t feel bad for the MCU, however, as its overall gross since 2019 ballooned to $894 million.
True life mountain climbing drama Tenzing has played the Telluride and Toronto festivals prior to a limited theatrical engagement next weekend and an Apple TV streaming release on October 16th. Jennifer Peedom, known for most nature related docs, directs. Genden Phuntsok plays the title role (known to be the first individual to ascend Mount Everest) alongside Sir Edmund Hillary (Tom Hiddleston). Willem Dafoe and Caitriona Balfe costar.
Tenzing managed a respectful reception on the fest circuit. While Rotten Tomatoes is at 100%, the Metacritic is a more grounded 65. While critics are praising some technical aspects, I doubt this climbs into the awards conversation on any level. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two decades plus after receiving a Supporting Actress nomination for Hotel Rwanda, Sophie Okonedo is picking up raves for her lead work in Clarissa. Updating Virginia Woolf’s Mrs. Dalloway, the Nigerian set drama comes from directors and twin brothers Arie and Chuko Esiri. The supporting cast includes David Oyelowo, Toheeb Jimoh, India Amarteifio, Nikki Amuka-Bird, and Ayo Edebiri.
Clarissa premiered at Cannes with its stateside unveiling last week at the New York festival. Neon is planning a limited theatrical engagement on December 11th. Reviews are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 87 on Metacritic. I just wonder if exposure will be wide enough for Okonedo to nab her second try at gold. I suspect she’ll need some precursors or critics’ groups love to get the Academy’s attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In his first directorial project since 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! has premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its December 4th stateside bow. The Searchlight property from the Michael Clayton filmmaker casts Pedro Pascal as a cello prodigy returning home to his native L.A. The drama costars Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor, Will Arnett, and Hank Azaria.
I’ve had Behemoth! in my top 10 projected Best Picture nominees (usually in the 8-9 slot range) for awhile now. Now that it’s been seen, I’m less confident it makes the cut. Some reviews are quite laudatory but the 81% Rotten Tomatoes and 73 Metacritic also indicates mixed notices. I expect it will drop from BP when I do my next update.
The pic could still factor into other races. Wilde is getting some nice ink though I’m skeptical a Supporting Actress nom would occur, especially because she’s likely to get an Actress nod for The Invite. Pascal is another story. He could contend for his first Actor mention. Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Andrew Scott (Elsinore) seem like safe bets for inclusion in the quintet. That leaves two slots with several vying for attention. Pascal’s notices are solid enough that he belongs in that group along with Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary, who I’m more confident about than others), Robert Pattinson (Primetime), Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York), Jaafar Jackson (Michael) and, yes, Tom Cruise in Digger.
Behemoth!‘s best shot might be in Best Original Score where nine individuals contributed including celebrated composers like James Newton Howard, Michael Giacchino, and Alan Silvestri. Critics especially took notice of that aspect. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sixteen years after its predecessor became an Oscar player and one of the best regarded pictures of the 21st century, The Social Reckoning posts up in theaters on October 9th. A sequel of sorts to The Social Network, the main participant from that movie returning is writer/director Aaron Sorkin. He penned the screenplay for Network and takes over directorial duties from David Fincher. None of the original cast return with Jeremy Strong as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg in place of Jesse Eisenberg. The legal thriller’s cast also includes Mikey Madison (in her first major role since her Oscar-winning turn in Anora), Jeremy Allen White, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, Billy Magnussen, and Bill Burr.
The buzz for Reckoning seems considerably lower than what greeted Network in 2010. Trailers have been met with a collective shrug. Unlike Network, awards talk isn’t really occurring. The review embargo is still up but early word-of-mouth equals the trailer reaction.
The Social Network kicked off with $22.4 million and I suspect the follow-up will be lucky to make half or even a third of that figure for starters.
The Social Reckoning opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
Austrian filmmaker Sandra Woller premiered psychological drama Everytime at the Cannes Film Festival where it won top honors in the Un Certain Regard section. Birgit Minichmayr, Tristán Lopez, Lotte Shirin Keiling, and Carla Hütterman lead the ensemble.
The pic is bouncing around the festival circuit and it’ll play the currently occurring New York event. Reviews put it at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. Germany has announced Everytime as the hopeful for International Feature Film. In this decade, half of their picks have made the final cut.
In 2022, All Quiet on the Western Front nabbed the gold. The following year, The Teachers’ Lounge was nominated with The Seed of the Sacred Fig achieving the same the year after that. Everytime will compete for attention with higher profile entries including The Black Ball, All of a Sudden, Fjord, Possible Love, and Fatherland. Yet I wouldn’t discount the possibility of this managing to sneak in. I haven’t predicted it yet, but I think it belongs in the top 10 contenders worth mentioning. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
Other Mommy looks to make lots of money for Universal when it debuts October 9th. Based on the 2024 novel by Josh Malerman (who also wrote the source material for the Netflix hit Bird Box), Jessica Chastain stars in the supernatural horror flick. The supporting cast includes Jay Duplass, Arabella Olivia Clark, Dichen Lachman, Arian Moayed, and Karen Allen. Rob Savage, maker of 2023’s ambivalently received The Boogeyman, directs.
She may be an Oscar winner, but Chastain is no stranger to the genre with Mama and It Chapter Two in her filmography. Scary movies have been hot in 2026 and a genuinely unsettling trailer should help Mommy score an easy #1 debut.
This should double the $12 million that greeted Savage’s Boogeyman and it could have room to spare. I’m projecting it’ll premiere with a mid to high 20s start.
Other Mommy opening weekend prediction: $29.2 million
For my The Social Reckoning prediction, click here:
Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, psychological thriller Verity looks to top the box office this weekend over Tom Cruise’s Digger. All signs are indicating that it will. Michael Showalter directs with Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson, and Josh Hartnett headlining.
While it may double the opening performance of Cruise and company (that’s what I’m projecting), reviews for both features are not great. Verity is at 47% on Rotten Tomatoes with 44 on Metacritic (Digger currently has the exact same MC score).
This is Hathaway’s fifth theatrical release of 2026. The Odyssey gives her a great opportunity for a second Supporting Actress try and possible win 14 years after her podium trip for Les Miserables. The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mother Mary are both possibilities for Costume Design while The End of Oak Street hopes to get in for Visual Effects. Verity is the only Hathaway flick that appears to have no chance at awards consideration. To be fair, Amazon MGM didn’t make it for that and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
