99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

Oscar Predictions: The Odyssey

One of the biggest pieces of the Oscar predicting puzzle came into greater focus today with the review embargo having lifted for Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. The fantasy based on Homer’s ancient epic debuts this weekend with grand box office hopes for Universal. It has long been anticipated to be a major awards player with Matt Damon leading a massive cast that includes (deep breath) Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Samantha Morton, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.

The reported $250 million production is Nolan’s hotly awaited follow-up to 2023’s Oppenheimer. That nearly billion dollar grossing biopic was an Oscar juggernaut with 13 nominations and 7 victories including Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). The Odyssey seeks to become Nolan’s fourth feature in contention for BP joining 2010’s Inception, 2017’s Dunkirk, and the aforementioned Oppenheimer.

Let’s dispense with the drama. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 Metacritic, The Odyssey‘s journey to a Best Picture nomination looks assured and it is a threat to win. Same goes for Nolan’s direction and a number of other categories including Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. That’s 11 noms in the bag already. Makeup and Hairstyling and Original Song (a new tune by Travis Scott and James Blake closes the three-hour experience) are possibilities with the latter perhaps a long shot.

As for the actors, some of my early predictions may have to shift. For weeks, I’ve had Matt Damon on the inside in fifth or on the outside looking in at sixth. That forecast seems accurate though I’m leaning toward him making the cut in what should be a crowded field. Obviously that could change as various works from competitors like Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) are screened. It would be Damon’s fourth acting nod behind Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian if he gets in.

Gunning for her third attempt at gold is Anne Hathaway behind 2008’s Rachel Getting Married and a Supporting Actress victory for 2012’s Les Miserables. The buzz indicates that her supporting work is the most assured of inclusion. I’ve her outside of the top 5 most of the time in the past couple of months. Look for that to change in my next round of predictions this weekend.

As for Supporting Actor, there was some chatter for Robert Pattinson and Tom Holland. If either get in, I’d say Pattinson is more likely than Holland. There’s also lots of love for John Leguizamo, but Universal would need to make a conscientious effort to campaign for him. Same goes for Samantha Morton in Supporting Actress. She’s getting raves. However, her performance is limited to one scene and Hathaway may get the sole push.

In a best case scenario, The Odyssey could surpass Oppenheimer‘s nomination haul and even get in the range of the record-setting 16 that Sinners received last year. I suspect my next projections will give it 13-15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Christopher Nolan’s eagerly awaited epic The Odyssey looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Perched in what has become the bankable filmmaker’s typical mid-July release date, it is the only new picture out wide and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Odyssey Box Office Prediction

The range for The Odyssey is all over the map for the adaptation of Homer’s tale. On the low end we are talking $80 million while the rosiest expectations have it landing around $130 million. My projection gives it nine digits out of the gate for what should be a healthy summer run.

Holdover family friendly flicks should populate spots 2-4. Disney’s Moana did not have a splashy start (more on that below) and we could see a mid 50s decline to just below $20 million. Animated efforts Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 should follow.

After a subpar premiere, Evil Dead Burn is likely to round out the top five with a hefty decline typical for horror fare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $106.2 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (July 10-12)

A lot of parents and kids sat out the live-action rendering of Disney’s Moana. With mediocre reviews and quiet buzz, the musical adventure starring Dwayne Johnson brought in $43.1 million. With a reported $250 million price tag, that’s a huge letdown for the Mouse Hunt and well under my $54.3 million prediction.

After a less than anticipated rollout over the Fourth of July frame, Minions & Monsters dropped to second with $21.1 million. That’s in range with my $20 million call as Illumination Entertainment’s latest animated comedy declined 43%. The two-week take is $108 million as it is poised to become the lowest grossing domestic earner of the seven Despicable Me/Minions sagas.

Toy Story 5 was third with $19 million, ahead of my $16.2 million forecast. The fifth feature in the Pixar franchise sits at $404 million after four weeks.

Evil Dead Burn was not a hot commodity in fourth with just $13.7 million compared to my generous $21.9 million take. The third entry in this current iteration of Dead series came in well below the mid 20s debuts of its predecessors.

Young Washington proved to be a Fourth of July play with a considerable 64% plummet in its sophomore weekend. At $6.9 million, it failed to reach my $11 million projection. The two-week total is a laudable $33 million for the Angel Studios production.

Finally, Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite expanded nationwide and was sixth with $5.7 million (I said $6.4 million). It has made $7.3 million when factoring in the limited engagements that started a couple weeks back.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The History of Concrete

All five nominated pictures for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards premiered at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival. So it’s obvious that we look to the 2026’s fest for possibilities at the 99th ceremony. I already wrote about Once Upon a Time in Harlem (which could be a frontrunner) and The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist.

Attention is now turned to The History of Concrete from John Wilson. The host of the HBO docuseries How To with John Wilson, the filmmaker’s feature-length directorial debut has a fascinating concept. Wilson applies lessons learned from a workshop about making a Hallmark movie to attempting a documentary about what the title suggests.

Sundance critics appreciated it to the scores of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic with particular praise going to its comedic aspects. Magnolia Pictures snatched up distribution rights. Academy voters could focus their attention on more serious docs, but Concrete at least has the foundation to be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Odyssey Box Office Prediction

Adapted from Homer’s ancient Greek works, The Odyssey looks to make a lot of dough when it opens July 17th. Undoubtedly one of 2026’s most anticipated releases, Christopher Nolan directs the fantasy action epic with Matt Damon headlining a packed cast. That includes Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Samantha Morton, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.

The first feature to be shot entirely on 70 mm IMAX cameras, showings on those giant screens are already sold out or filling up for the three-hour experience. Nolan’s stock is incredibly high right now. This is his follow-up to the 2023 Oscar juggernaut Oppenheimer which nearly grossed a billion dollars worldwide. No other director is more bankable than him.

With known source material, a spirited marketing campaign, and a plum mid-July release date that Nolan favors (it’s when Oppenheimer, The Dark Knight, and The Dark Knight Rises premiered), that should be a winning combo. Official reviews aren’t out yet, but early word-of-mouth is strong and it’s expected to be a major Oscar contender.

The Odyssey should surpass the $82.5 million that greeted Oppenheimer. I think it can get past $100 million even though I’m not buying the rosiest forecasts of $130 million or so (at least not yet).

The Odyssey opening weekend prediction: $106.2 million

Oscar Predictions: Moana (2026)

Arriving in theaters this weekend and not even a decade behind the animated original, Disney’s live-action version of Moana hopes for smooth sailing at the box office. Broadway vet Thomas Kail makes his directorial debut with Dwayne Johnson headlining and Catherine Laga’aia in the title role. Costars include Rena Owen, John Tui, Frankie Adams, and Jemaine Clement.

In 2016, the Mouse House had a commercial and critical darling with the animated pic. The Rotten Tomatoes score was 95% with Metacritic at 81. A Best Animated Feature nomination followed (losing to the studio’s own Zootopia) along with an Original Song mention for “How Far I’ll Go” (written by Lin-Manuel Miranda). Reviews were not as strong for the 2024 sequel (61% RT, 58 MC) and no Oscar attention was paid.

The downward trend continues with this live-action rendering. The Tomato meter is a lowly 36% with Metacritic at 45. Even though Miranda contributes an Original Song, it’s safe to assume this Moana will not be an awards player in any way. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Disney’s live-action version of Moana should top the charts, but it could face choppy waters in a marketplace with competition for kiddos and their parents. We also have Evil Dead Burn, the latest entry in that 45-year-old horror franchise and the nationwide expansion of Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction
Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction
The Invite Box Office Prediction

The Mouse House will easily achieve #1 but not bragging rights for Moana. My mid 50s forecast would cook up a disappointing start for Dwayne Johnson’s latest and that would mark the second lowball family flick debut in as many weekends.

I am referring to Minions & Monsters. Its unimpressive rollout (more on that below) was a Fourth of July surprise. If it eases in the mid 40s, the latest animated adventure in the series may have to settle for third.

That’s because Evil Dead Burn seeks a runner-spot slot as it hopes to post a $20M+ opening like its predecessors. I’m projecting it will get there.

Toy Story 5 and Young Washington should round out the top five and I have each declining in the mid 40s range.

As for The Invite, a mid single digits result in its nationwide expansion should mean sixth place.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $20 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

5. Young Washington

Predicted Gross: $11 million

6. The Invite

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (July 3-5)

With Minions & Monsters, Illumination Entertainment experienced the smallest debut of the seven Despicable Me/Minions movies with a far less than anticipated $37 million from Friday to Sunday and $62 million since its Wednesday bow. To put it mildly, I was more optimistic with respective estimates of $66.4 million and $106.5 million. The studio was obviously banking on more fireworks at the multiplex as this received stronger reviews than its predecessors.

Toy Story 5 slid to second after two weeks in 1st with $30.3 million, under my $35.4 million call. The three-week tally builds to $365 million.

Young Washington from Angel Studios took advantage of the holiday with its historical subject and earned $19.3 million in third. That’s on par with my $18.5 million take.

Supergirl crash landed once again in its sophomore weekend with a 77% fall to $8.6 million. I thought it might only crater in the mid 60s and went with $13.2 million. Summer’s biggest bomb has collected a piddly $57 million domestically.

Disclosure Day rounded out the top five with a 30% ease and $5.7 million. I incorrectly had Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi tale on the outside looking in and it crossed the century mark at $105 million after four weeks.

Obsession finally performed like a normal summer pic by decreasing 46% in sixth with $5.2 million (I said $6.8 million). The eight-week tally is $245 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Invite Box Office Prediction

Remaking the 2020 Spanish comedy The People Upstairs, Olivia Wilde is drawing acclaim for her third directorial feature The Invite. Currently in limited release, it’s out wide on July 10th. The four-hander stars Seth Rogen, Wilde, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton.

After its first screenings at Sundance back in January, a bidding war ensued with A24 winning out. On the Fourth of July weekend, The Invite welcomed crowds at 28 venues across New York, L.A., and other big cities. It even managed to crack the top ten in 10th with $800,000 plus for a noteworthy per screen average.

With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic, Wilde’s latest is starting to generate awards buzz. Her 2019 behind the camera debut Booksmart did the same while 2022’s Don’t Worry Darling was a critical and commercial letdown.

Like many platform titles, The Invite should play stronger in large markets. I do think this can manage mid single digits on approximately 1600 screens.

The Invite opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million

For my Moana prediction, click here:

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction

For my Evil Dead Burn prediction, click here:

Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction

In a summer where horror pics have lit up the box office, Warner Bros hopes that Evil Dead Burn continues that trend on July 10th. The sixth overall feature in a franchise that Sam Raimi started in the early 80s, this serves as a stand-alone continuation to 2013’s Evil Dead and 2023’s Evil Dead Rise. Sébastien Vaniček takes over directorial duties. The cast includes Souheila Yacoub, Tandi Wright, Hunter Doohan, and Luciane Buchanan.

Ten years ago, Evil Dead kicked off with a front-loaded $25.7 million on its way to a domestic gross of $54 million. A decade after that, Evil Dead Rise made a slightly lower $24.5 million out of the gate. However, it had stronger legs and ended up with $67 million. That goodwill from its predecessor and the genre’s overall strength in the marketplace could push Burn to the largest debut of the three.

In a best case scenario, that could mean a premiere approaching $30 million. Yet I’ll say the recent trend of underperformance applies here and this has the lowest opening of the trio.

Evil Dead Burn opening weekend prediction: $21.9 million

For my Moana prediction, click here:

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction

For my The Invite prediction, click here:

The Invite Box Office Prediction