Oscar Predictions: Paper Tiger


Writer/director James Gray is no stranger to the Cannes Film Festival as his latest Paper Tiger is the sixth effort to play the French Riviera. Others include We Own the Night, The Immigrant, and predecessor Armageddon Time. 80s set crime drama Tiger stars Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and Miles Teller with support from Gavin Goudey, Roman Engel, and Victor Ptak.

Most reviews are of the thumbs up variety with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 84 Metacritic. Gray has yet to have his awards breakout despite acclaim for titles including The Lost City of Z and Ad Astra in addition to some of the aforementioned.

Tiger‘s viability is a question mark. It appears to be getting enough critical acclaim, but it’ll be interesting to see how much distributor Neon pushes it. Driver and Johansson (who were both nominated in 2019 for Marriage Story) could contend in Actor and (probably) Supporting Actress as opposed to lead. Johansson’s performance is being singled out as the best and worst aspect of the cast depending on what you read. She’ll hope for enough of the former to grab her third nomination. It’s entirely possible that Paper Tiger fails to register with the Academy though Cannes reaction is giving it a shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma marks Jane Schoenbrun’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2024 effort I Saw the TV Glow. Serving as the premiere feature for the Un Certain Regard section at the Cannes Film Festival, the satirical sendup of 80s slashers is shaping up to be another critical darling. Hannah Einbinder (of Hacks fame) and Gillian Anderson star with a supporting cast including Amanda Fix, Sarah Sherman, Patrick Fischler, Dylan Baker, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Eva Victor, and Jack Haven.

Reviews are strong with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps an even more notable 91 Metacritic. The mainstream appeal for Miasma could be limited, but distributor Mubi has shown their campaigning prowess previously through The Substance. Under a best case scenario, the Academy could notice Anderson’s lauded supporting work and/or the original screenplay. I think this is more likely to resonate with the Gotham Awards or Indie Spirits where Glow shined two years back. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

Absurdist crime comedy I Love Boosters hopes to make off with respectable box office grosses on May 22nd. This is Boots Riley’s follow-up to 2018’s acclaimed Sorry to Bother You. The eclectic cast includes Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.

The Neon release was first screened at South by Southwest in March to fresh reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes, 73 Metacritic). Debuting over the Memorial Day weekend, the real question is whether this manages to play between the coasts. That could be a challenge.

Budgeted for a reported $20 million, it would exceed expectations if it gets past $5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame. I’m projecting that it will not.

I Love Boosters opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.5 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction

For my Passenger prediction, click here:

Passenger Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Obsession

Curry Barker’s Obsession is out this weekend and exceeding expectations at the box office along with its glowing reviews. The horror flick about a granted wish gone horribly awry stands at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 77 Metacritic. Michael Johnston and Inde Navarrette headline with Cooper Tomlinson, Megan Lawless, and Andy Richter in the supporting cast.

This is not a genre that has historically performed well with awards voters. However, the Academy has shown a willingness to embrace it under the right circumstances. Obsession sports an A- Cinemascore grade. That’s very high for a scary movie and the first to do so since Zach Cregger’s Weapons. I bring it up because that movie ended up being Amy Madigan’s Oscar-winning Supporting Actress turn just two months ago. I suspect it also came close to an Original Screenplay nomination.

If Focus Features mounts a genuine campaign, I wouldn’t totally discount Navarrette’s chances in Best Actress. Her fatally attracted performance is receiving plenty of kudos as is Barker’s original screenplay. Obsession will not reach the financial heights of Cregger’s work even if it plays well throughout the summer. I wouldn’t count on it ultimately being an awards contender, but Weapons proved it’s a possibility at the previous ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: All of a Sudden

Set in the world of the Parisian health care system, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s latest is All of a Sudden with its generous 196 runtime (making Fatherland‘s 82 minutes seem like a YouTube ad). Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto headline the talky drama with Kyozo Nagatsuka, Kodai Kurosaki, Jean-Charles Clichet, and Marie Bunel in support.

In 2021, Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car (a whole 17 minutes shorter than Sudden) premiered at Cannes to rapturous acclaim. It would end up with four major Oscar noms: Picture, Director, Adapted, and International Feature Film (which it won). 2023’s follow-up Evil Does Not Exist received positive reaction but did not register with the Academy.

Sudden has gone the Cannes route and critics are once again effusive in their praise. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. This could pick up the same four nominations that greeted Car and I’m assuming Japan will pick it as their hopeful in IFF. Reviews indicate this is mostly a two-hander between Efira and Okamoto. Neon, who hold North American distribution rights, will have a decision to make. Efira will likely be in the mix for lead actress. Will Okamoto be campaigned in supporting or alongside her costar? You have to go back to 1991 (Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon in Thelma & Louise) to find the last time two women competed in that category from the same film. That leads to me to think the latter will go supporting and both could get in if Sudden is a BP contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Passenger Box Office Prediction

Paramount hopes audiences are in the mood for a scary story to watch in the dark when Passenger arrives in multiplexes on May 22nd. André Øvredal, who directed Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, is behind the camera with Jacob Scipio, Lou Llobell, and Melissa Leo in the cast.

The fright fest boasts an effective trailer and genre fans could turn out over the Memorial Day weekend. However, horror fans have had some options lately and Obsession could still be performing well in its sophomore frame based on word-of-mouth.

A gross above $10 million over the four-day is certainly feasible for its ceiling, but I’m going under.

Passenger opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $7.3 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction

For my I Love Boosters prediction, click here:

I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Parallel Tales

Iranian filmmaker Asghar Farhadi is no stranger to awards success. 2011’s A Separation and 2016’s The Salesman both won the International Feature Film prize at the Oscars. 2021’s A Hero was shortlisted in the same competition and took the Grand Prix prize at Cannes. So it’s understandable that his follow-up Parallel Tales, screening at the French festival this week, would be looked at as something the Academy might be friendly to. The drama features Isabelle Huppert, Virginie Efira (costarring in the buzzy All of a Sudden at Cannes), Vincent Cassel, Pierre Niney, Adam Bessa, Catherine Deneuve, and India Hair.

So while its resume looks strong for their consideration, the screenings tell a different story. The vast majority of critics are calling this a major misfire. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 18%. No amount of salesmanship would put this in the mix for the top foreign category in a few months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction

Following a nearly six and a half year break between big screen releases, the Star Wars franchise blasts back into theaters over the Memorial Day holiday with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Building upon the Disney+ series The Mandalorian that aired from 2019 to 2023, Pedro Pascal returns in the title role with Jeremy Allen White voicing Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver in the human cast. Jon Favreau, who created the TV series, directs.

After Disney prioritized streaming content in the 2020s, this looks to kickstart multiplex studio efforts with Star Wars: Starfighter slated to open next Memorial Day weekend. Grogu is a real test for Star Wars fan loyalty. It can be argued that this would have fared better when the Disney+ show was fresher in the minds of viewers. The last two theatrical efforts -2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story and 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, were considered letdowns critically and commercially.

The best comp is Solo which debuted over the same holiday frame with $84 million from Friday to Sunday and $103 million when factoring Monday. Disney is surely hoping for nine figure bragging rights. I’m putting it under that for what would be considered a so-so start.

The Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend prediction: $80.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $94.7 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Passenger prediction, click here:

Passenger Box Office Prediction

For my I Love Boosters prediction, click here:

I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Fatherland

Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland is one of the most anticipated titles playing Cannes and its French screening today indicates it lives up the hype. Set post-WWII, the black & white historical drama casts Sandra Hüller as novelist Erika Mann on a road trip with renowned father Thomas (Hanns Zischler). Costars include August Diehl, David Striesow, and Anna Madeley.

This is the Polish filmmaker’s first feature since 2018’s Cold War which picked up Academy nods for Best Director, International Feature Film, and Łukasz Żal’s cinematography. Prior to that, 2014’s Ida was the International Feature Film winner and also made cut in cinematography for Żal.

Reviews for the Mubi distributed title (which runs a brisk 82 minutes) stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 92 on Metacritic. Those numbers solidify its awards viability. Assuming Poland submits it as their horse in IFF (and it’s safe to assume that), this should mark the auteur’s third shot in that race in a row. Żal’s camerawork is also being singled out and he could make the quintet there.

While Ida and Cold War didn’t get into the BP ten, Fatherland certainly is a possibility and Pawlikowski is once again a contender for his direction and his original screenplay with Hendrik Handloegten. As far as the leads, Hüller is generating raves. Her potential inclusion in Best Actress is high though not a given. Due to a fresh Academy rules change, she might even compete against herself when factoring her heralded turn in Rose (where she took top prize at the Berlin fest). The vote splitting between both roles will be something to keep in mind. Zischler is more of a question mark. His costar could overshadow the campaign. On paper, Best Actor looks awfully crowded. Could Mubi go supporting instead? However, momentum for the pic could sweep him in under a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Is God Is

Adapting her own critically heralded play, Aleshea Harris’s cinematic directorial debut Is God Is arrives in multiplexes this weekend. The grindhouse tale stars Kara Young and Mallori Johnson as sisters seeking revenge stemming from a family tragedy. The supporting cast includes Sterling K. Brown, Vivica A. Fox, Janelle Monáe, Erika Alexander, Mykelti Williamson, and Josiah Cross.

The Orion release is generating some of the best reviews of 2026 with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 Metacritic. That said, Academy love could be hard to come by given the genre. Adapted Screenplay is worth mentioning and Makeup and Hairstyling is an even better possibility.

Where Is God Is could really shine is at the Indie Spirit Awards, especially for Harris with Best First Feature. I could also see it doing well at the Gothams. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…