Coming-of-age drama Mouse premiered way back in February at the Berlin Film Festival and is hitting stateside screens in limited fashion this weekend. It is Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2024 indie community theater flick Ghostlight. Sophie Okonedo, Katherine Mallen Kupferer, Chloe Coleman, Tara Mallen, Beck Nolan, Iman Vellani, and David Hyde Pierce make up the ensemble.
Like their predecessor, Mouse has connected with critics with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and 88 on Metacritic. The IFC release might not get enough exposure to be visible to the Academy. The one potential exception (admittedly a reach) could be Okonedo. Nominated 22 years ago in Supporting Actress for Hotel Rwanda, reviews are calling her performance a stand-out. She’s also received kudos for her lead work in this year’s Clarissa. If critics groups start naming her as their pick for Supporting Actress here, maybe it elevates her moving forward. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Will Amazon MGM’s How to Rob a Bank make off with decent grosses when it opens November 13th? David Leitch (John Wick, Deadpool 2, The Fall Guy) helms the action comedy with Nicholas Hoult starring. The supporting cast includes Zoë Kravitz, Anna Sawai, Rhenzy Feliz, Pete Davidson, John C. Reilly, and Christian Slater.
Originally slated for September, I’m not convinced audience awareness is where it needs to be to meet expectations. Tracking is said to be between $10-15 million. That’s certainly possible and Leitch has had a number of sizable hits. My gut says to take the under for a subpar performance.
How to Rob a Bank opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
Paramount is looking for audiences to be in the Christmas spirit, albeit Gothic holiday spirit, when Ebenezer opens November 13th. Also styled as Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (in case you don’t know it’s based on the Charles Dickens classic), this is a departure for director Ti West. Known for the recent trilogy of X horror flicks (X, Pearl, MaXXXine), the darkly comedic fantasy marks a comeback attempt for Johnny Depp in the title role. After a series of controversies, this is Depp’s most high profile leading role in nearly a decade. Costars include Rupert Grint, Andrea Riseborough, Sam Claflin, Daisy Ridley, Arthur Conti, Ellie Bamber, Henry Lloyd-Hughes, Charlie Murphy, Tramell Tillman, and Ian McKellen.
Reportedly made for just under $40 million, that reasonable price could prove fortuitous as this looks to play throughout the holiday season. The review embargo doesn’t lift until the day before. That’s typically not a positive sign, but it could also avoid any poor word-of-mouth if critics say (you guessed it!) bah humbug.
Estimates have been trickling up past $20 million. The opportunity to exceed expectations is there with a worst case scenario probably in the late teens. I’ll say it does get to over half its budget in the initial weekend.
Ebenezer opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
Based on the Dr. Seuss 1957 children’s book, Warner Bros is hoping family audiences turn out for The Cat in the Hat this weekend. The animated adaptation arrives 23 years after Mike Myers starred in the critically ballyhooed live-action take. This time around, Bill Hader voices the title character. Other cast members include Matt Berry, Quinta Brunson, Xochitl Gomez, Giancarlo Esposito, and America Ferrera. Alessandro Carloni and Erica Rivinoja direct.
There are plenty of titles vying for attention in Best Animated Feature including Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Ray Gunn, Forgotten Island, Iron Boy, Tangles,Hoppers, and Coyote vs. Acme. Sporting a subpar 47 on Metacritic, any thought of including Cat among those contenders should give you serious pause. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After October closed out with an expected whimper, four movies hope to kickstart a busy November at multiplexes. Toho sequel Godzilla Minus Zero, animated Dr. Seuss adaptation The Cat in the Hat, Indian action fantasy Ramayana: Part 1, and Martin McDonagh’s black comedy Wild Horse Nine all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There could be a battle for #1, but in the matchup of Godzilla vs. Hat, I’m giving the giant lizard the advantage. Predecessor Godzilla Minus One from 2023 debuted to $11 million. However, its reputation has grown and anticipation for the follow-up might have it tripling that start in the mid 30s.
The Cat in the Hat hopes to play well over the holiday season. I wouldn’t be shocked if my estimate is a tad high though I am giving it the benefit of the doubt with a premiere just over $30 million.
The biggest question mark is Ramayana: Part 1. Pre-sales are encouraging for the highly priced tagged epic. It opens on Thursday and that should contribute to a front-loaded total. I think it gets past $10 million from Friday to Sunday for a third place showing.
As for Wild Horse Nine, it may only get to lower single digits on around 1000 screens. It’ll hope for awards buzz to keep it in venues moving forward. My $3.9 million figure puts it outside the top five.
Holdover and current champ You Can See Everything should drop to fourth. Wildwood is likely to experience a smaller dip than Clayface and allow the former to be fifth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Godzilla Minus Zero
Predicted Gross: $32 million
2. The Cat in the Hat
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
3. Ramayana: Part 1
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
5. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)
In a Halloween frame where no new titles entered the wide release marketplace, buzzy documentary You Can See Everything vaulted to first after two weeks in second. A24’s Oscar contender took in $11.4 million, below my $12.9 million prediction for a three-week total of $64 million. It is doing numbers that the genre doesn’t do.
Clayface dropped to second with $11 million, under my $13.5 million projection. The DC Universe body horror flick has made $44 million after two weeks. That’s not bad considering the reported $40 million budget.
Laika Animation’s Wildwood eased only 27% in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million, a tad more than my $8 million take. The critically acclaimed stop-motion effort has $27 million in its coffers.
Wicker with Olivia Colman also held impressively with $4.3 million in weekend #2. I was close at $4 million as the ribald comedy has made $13 million.
Street Fighter rounded out the top five with $3.6 million (I said $4 million). The video game adaptation has $53 million after three weeks.
Wild Horse Nine was trotted out at the Venice Film Festival to Oscar buzz and the black comedy from Martin McDonagh opens theatrically November 6th. The writer/director’s follow-up to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin stars John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Tom Waits, Parker Posey, and Mariana di Girolamo.
With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 on Metacritic, Nine is expected to contend for awards noms like the filmmaker’s predecessors. I’m not sure that translates to notable box office figures. 2022’s Banshees was up for nine Academy Awards, but took in just $10 million domestically. One could argue that COVID was still having an effect at that time.
Nine is rumored to have a smallish wide release around 1000 venues next weekend. That’ll temper its numbers and my estimate puts it just under $4 million for starters. It’ll hope for eventual Oscar attention to keep it afloat.
Wild Horse Nine opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:
With a reported budget of half a billion dollars for part 1 and its sequel, Ramayana: Part 1 hits domestic venues on November 5th hoping to make some impressive figures stateside while earning the bulk of its bucks overseas. The Indian Hindi-language fantasy epic comes from Nitesh Tiwari with a cast including Ranbir Kapoor, Yash, Sai Pallavi, Ravi Dubey, and Sunny Deol. Legendary composer Hans Zimmer shares score duties with A.R. Rahman in the latter’s first contribution to Indian cinema.
Leading into Diwali week, preview sales are encouraging as this looks to place third behind other newcomers Godzilla Minus Zero and The Cat in the Hat. One comparison is 2017’s Baahubali 2: The Conclusion which kicked off with $10 million.
Grosses should be front-loaded for Ramayana and that might apply to the Thursday number (including Wednesday night screenings). I’ll say this gets beyond $10 million for the traditional weekend with mid single digits for Thursday itself.
Ramayana: Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:
Mountain climbing romance Everest: The Other Side played the trio of fall fests (Venice, Telluride, Toronto) prior to its release this weekend. The documentary comes from Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin in conjunction with National Geographic. It arrives eight years after the filmmakers won Documentary Feature at the Oscars for Free Solo. Their non-documentary debut, 2023’s Nyad, scored acting nods for Annette Bening and Jodie Foster.
Everest’s reviews don’t match Solo‘s with a still solid 86% Rotten Tomatoes rating and less enthusiastic 66 on Metacritic. With more acclaimed docs in the marketplace, this faces an uphill climb for Academy voter attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Recounting a famous gridiron game played during World War II, Peter Berg’s The Mosquito Bowl is in theaters this weekend before its Netflix release over Thanksgiving. Based on the novel by Buzz Bissinger (he also wrote the source material for Friday Night Lights), the cast is led by Nicholas Galitzine, Bill Skarsgård, Ray Nicholson, and Tom Francis.
This is the first Peter Berg directed effort to not star Mark Wahlberg since 2012’s Battleship. The actor turned filmmaker’s efforts have managed some tech category attention from the Academy in the past. 2013’s Lone Survivor was nominated in Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (before the Oscars combined those races into one Sound competition). 2014’s Deepwater Horizon contended for Sound Editing and Visual Effects.
With 40% on Rotten Tomatoes and a matching score on Metacritic, don’t expect Mosquito to bowl over voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Three years after Godzilla Minus One was a critical darling and an Oscar winner for its visuals, Toho looks to post a monster number for follow-up Godzilla Minus Zero starting November 6th. Takashi Yamazaki is back in the director’s chair along with returning cast members Ryunosuke Kamiki, Minami Hamabe, Hidetaka Yoshioka, Yuki Yamada, Kuranosuke Sasaki, Sakura Ando, and Miou Tanka. Newcomers to the franchise (going strong for over 70 years) include Min Tanaka, Masami Nagasawa, and Jun Kunimura.
Zero debuted at the New York Film Festival late last month. The reception was similar to its predecessor’s with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. 2023’s Minus One has had time to build an even bigger following since its theatrical performance. Back in December of that year, it opened with $11.4 million and legged out impressively to $57 million. That made it the highest grossing live-action Japanese feature of all time stateside.
The sequel should surpass that with little trouble. I believe $30 plus million out of the gate is achievable with room to spare.
Godzilla Minus Zero opening weekend prediction: $32 million
