Following its Sundance premiere in January, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist is in actual theaters this weekend. Daniel Roher, who made the 2022 Oscar winning documentary Navalny, co-directs with Charlie Tyrell. Per the title, the Focus Features pickup centers on a hot button issue and should generate a fair amount of attention for its genre.
Whether that translates to any awards focus is a trickier question. While Rotten Tomatoes is at an optimistic 88%, the 57 Metacritic is more glass half empty. The Academy’s branch of doc voters often don’t go with the highest profile titles and the mixed critical reaction can’t help much. That said, I’m sure its distributor will attempt to keep it visible months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Taking a break from their high profile franchises (albeit briefly), Zendaya and Robert Pattinson headline the relationship tale The Drama on April 3rd. Written and directed by Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) and described as both a dark comedy and romantic thriller, it will try and find a large female audience over the Easter holiday. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoë Winters provide support.
The film’s leads will be seen together this December in Dune: Part Three and that will certainly be their biggest 2026 hit. However, The Drama has breakout potential due to its star power and counter programming ability while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary dominate the charts.
A worst case scenario might be low teens and failing to match the $15 million that Zendaya’s Challengers opened with two years ago. A dream scenario would be anything beyond $20 million. I think that’s achievable, but I’ll project higher teens.
The Drama opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
For my The Super Mario Galaxy Movie prediction, click here:
Illumination Entertainment looks to light up the Easter frame with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1st. The animated comedic adventure is the follow-up to 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie which debuted over the same holiday to fantastic results. Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back co-directing with Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan- Michael Key, and Kevin Michael Richardson reprising the voices of their Nintendo character roles. Newcomers behind the mic include Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Issa Rae, Luis Guzmán, and Brie Larson.
As mentioned, 2023’s original was a massive blockbuster. In early April, it too rolled out over an expanded five-day period to top level results. The three-day start was $146.3 million with $204.6 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. It would leg out to $574 million and become the year’s second largest domestic earner behind Barbie.
With a short lag time for the sequel, a best case scenario might be a premiere on par or slightly better than its predecessor. I suspect it might coming in a bit lower, but not by much.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opening weekend prediction: $135.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $182.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Project Hail Mary touched down with fantastic results as it looks to easily repeat in 1st place as March closes out. Horror comedy They Will Kill You is the sole wide release newcomer and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
A best case scenario for They Will Kill You might be a second place finish in the low double digits or low teens. I’m going lower in the mid single digits for a third place start.
Space set Hail Mary opened at the top end of its expected range for 2026’s highest premiere (more on that below). It scored the second largest debut for a non-franchise, non-sequel behind Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling’s second best unveiling after Barbie. I suspect the sophomore dip will be in the mid 40s (similar to Oppenheimer).
Hoppers should remain in the runner-up position as it heads into the Easter frame. The 4-5 spots should be close between Reminders of Him and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come after its meh debut.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
2. Hoopers
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. They Will Kill You
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
4. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
5. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (March 20-22)
Project Hail Mary reached for the stars and achieved a remarkable launch with $80.5 million, zooming beyond my $69 million prediction. With solid reviews and awards buzz, it turned out to be the event film that Amazon MGM was hoping for. The future looks bright as it faces no obstacles topping the charts again.
Hoppers, after two weeks in 1st, was second with $17.8 million. That’s on target with my $18.4 million call as Disney/Pixar’s latest hit $120 million after three weeks.
Indian action sequel Dhurandhar: The Revenge managed bragging rights by outgrossing the Ready or Not follow-up. With the second best per theater average, it made $10 million compared to my $7.8 million forecast with $14 million in the bank since its Wednesday bow.
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come stumbled in fourth with $9 million, under my $11.2 million take. The horror sequel showed that most genre fans fell on the not ready side.
Reminders of Him rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $9.2 million) for a two-week tally of $33 million.
Scream 7 was sixth with $4.3 million. I went with $5.3 million as the latest franchise entry’s four-week earnings rose to $114 million.
Ethan Hawke, fresh off his third acting Oscar nod for Blue Moon, headlines the 1930s set survival drama The Weight. Directed by Padraic McKinley and scheduled for domestic release in September, it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and has also played Berlin. Costars include Julia Jones, Austin Amelio, and Russell Crowe.
Plenty of reviews are praising this as an old-fashioned yarn with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 70 on Metacritic is more indicative of positive write-ups expressing some reservations. A lot of the kudos are going to Hawke’s performance.
Indie outlet Vertical picked up distribution rights. This is not a company who’ve successfully played much in the awards campaigning space. They’ll need to up their game for Hawke to be in contention for a back-to-back nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Atlanta and Joker star Zazie Beetz gets a headlining role in They Will Kill You on March 27th. The horror comedy debuted at South by Southwest and is directed and cowritten by Kirill Sokolov. Set at a hotel with its set of literal demons, the supporting cast includes Myha’la, Paterson Joseph, Tom Felton, Heather Graham, and Patricia Arquette.
Fans of the genre have had plenty to feast on lately via Scream 7 and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come the prior weekend. Reviews thus far give it a reassuring 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. I do struggle to sense any breakout potential. High single digits might be its ceiling, but I’m inclined to think mid single digits with a gross similar to last year’s Death of a Unicorn.
They Will Kill You opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
Power Ballad is the latest musical dramedy in the genre that Irish filmmaker John Carney specializes in. Slated for a June 5th stateside bow, the Lionsgate release features Paul Rudd as a wedding singer who scores an unexpected hit via a fading boy band star (Nick Jonas). The supporting cast includes Peter McDonald, Marcella Plunkett, Haley Rose Liu, and Jack Reynor. Months before the summer premiere, it has been screened this month at the Dublin International Film Festival and South by Southwest.
Carney is best known for 2007’s Once with follow-ups including Begin Again and Sing Street. It sounds like he might have another crowdpleaser on deck. Ballad has scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 82% on Metacritic. Some reviews are calling it one of Rudd’s strongest performances.
While awards prospects are likely limited, both Once and Begin Again landed Original Song noms at the Oscars. The song at the center here is “How To Write a Song (Without You)” and it could be a track worth monitoring several months down the line. If Lionsgate puts up a decent campaign in Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes (where Sing Street vied for Best Motion Picture), both the movie and Rudd could contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (03/19): Upping my Project Hail Mary prediction from $59 million to $69 million and adding Dhurandharthe Revenge to the #5 spot at $7.8 million.
Amazon MGM space adventure Project Hail Mary looks to dominate the box office this weekend while Searchlight searches for horror fans to boost Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With high star reviews, Mary appears poised for an impressive showing out of the gate (it will need it with the reported $200M+ budget). My prediction has it reaching nearly $60 million as it hopes for a long run in the coming weeks.
Barring a significant overperformance, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come should place third in low double digits behind the third frame of current champ Hoppers.
The remainder of the top five should go to holdovers Reminders of Him in its sophomore frame (more on its solid performance below) and Scream 7.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $69 million
2. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
3. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Dhurandhar The Revenge
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
6. Scream 7
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (March 13-15)
As anticipated, Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers stayed in 1st place while newcomers managed to outdo my projections. Hoppers made off with $28.6 million, just ahead of my $27.2 million prediction. The two-week earnings jumped to $86 million.
Reminders of Him, the romantic drama based on the Colleen Hoover novel, came in at the high end of expectations with $17.9 million in second. That’s well beyond my $10.4 million call. Look for it to drop in the high 40s in its second week.
Low-budget Canadian horror pic Undertone was third with $9.3 million. Like Reminders, it started out at the top of its expected range and past my meager $4.9 million take. I do think it will drop out of the top 5 this weekend with a percentage dip in the high 50s or more.
Scream 7 was fourth with $8.5 million, ahead of my $6.9 million forecast for a three-week tally of $106 million. It will match the $108 million take of its 2023 predecessor this week.
Goat rounded out the top five with $4.6 million (I said $4.3 million) as the animated sports tale is nearly at nine digits with $90 million.
Finally, The Bride! plummeted 70% in weekend #2 with just $2 million. I was more generous at $2.6 million. The two-week total for the WB flop is $11 million.
After months of pontificating and countless posts on what might happen, the 98th Academy Awards are in the rearview with one movie being the clear winner. That’s One Battle After Another from Paul Thomas Anderson. PTA, with three decades of giving us great movies, went into the evening 0 for 11 in previous ceremonies. He is now a three-time Oscar recipient with Battle collecting six of its thirteen nominations.
Overall I went 16 for 21 in my picks. It was a night of no major upsets. For the six categories I got wrong, my runner-up emerged victorious. And, yes, I whiffed on the big one. I thought Ryan Coogler’s Sinners might squeak by with a slightly surprising victory. That Best Picture honor went to the favored Battle.
I correctly forecasted PTA’s latest for Director, Supporting Actor (a no-show Sean Penn becoming just the eighth thespian to nab 3 acting gold statues), and Adapted Screenplay. Yet Battle‘s gains were losses for Sinners elsewhere in my projections. I had Sinners taking Film Editing and Casting but it was Battle.
In Cinematography, I went with Battle and the Academy rolled with Sinners. This provided some history with Autumn Durald Arkapaw becoming the first female to win that prize. Sinners would take home three more awards which I predicted – Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor in a contest where Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was the frontrunner until the past couple of weeks, Original Screenplay, and Original Score. There’s little doubt that Sinners was #2 in ballots for BP.
Here’s where I else I got it right and we’ll start with the obvious. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) made it clean sweep for Best Actress. Sentimental Value is your International Feature Film with KPop Demon Hunters grabbing Animated Feature and Original Song (“Golden”).
Frankenstein was successful in its trio of tech races (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design). F1 placed first in Sound with Avatar: Fire and Ash making it three in a row for James Cameron’s franchise in Visual Effects.
Where I got it wrong is my Sinners coattails caused me to predict Wunmi Mosaku, but it was Critics Choice and SAG Actor winner Amy Madigan (Weapons) in Supporting Actress. Her podium trip comes 40 years after her first nomination for Twice in a Lifetime. BAFTA documentary winner Mr. Nobody Against Putin is now the top Oscar doc over The Perfect Neighbor.
Fun fact regarding precursors: the Golden Globes only matched this year’s Oscars in the acting races at a 1 for 4 margin (Jessie Buckley only). SAG Actor? 4 for 4.
As for the ceremony itself? Conan O’Brien is a solid host though his material seemed to be stronger last year. The show (no surprise here) was a bit of a slog. The highlight might have been the dignified In Memoriam with tributes to legends lost in the past 12 months including Rob Reiner, Diane Keaton, and Robert Redford.
For those keeping score, here’s the final victory tally:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Sentimental Value, Weapons
The 98th Academy Awards will be known for PTA finally getting one Oscar after another after another. Keep an eye on the blog as speculation will soon begin on the 99th…
It might be Oscar weekend, but it’s also time for South by Southwest which is premiering numerous movies and TV shows. The Austin fest isn’t really a breeding ground for eventual Academy fare though 2022’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once did kick off there.
SXSW is known more for showcasing odder and independent spirited movies. The Oscar bait usually saves itself for Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Nevertheless Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is an eagerly awaited title that served as opening selection.
This is the rapper and political activist turned filmmaker’s sophomore feature after his acclaimed 2018 debut Sorry to Bother You. The satire centers on a group of shoplifters boasts an eclectic cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
Early buzz indicates Riley has another critical hit with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Reviews also infer that it’s far out there similar to Bother. Perhaps Original Screenplay could be in play at the Oscars, but this might be more tailored to the Independent Spirit Awards or the Gothams (two ceremonies where Riley’s inaugural effort showed up). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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