Tag: Lady Gaga

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Oscar Predictions: The Devil Wears Prada 2

    The Devil Wears Prada 2, despite a two decade long break from its predecessor, seems to be fresh in the consciousness of moviegoers. The sequel is expected to make a killing at the box office with Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci reprising their roles from the 2006 comedy. Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh join the fun with David Frankel back directing.

    Prada part one managed to get awards attention 20 years ago. Meryl Streep landed her 14th nomination for Best Actress (she’s now up to 21), falling short to Helen Mirren as The Queen. The fashion centric flick also contended for Costume Design. At the Golden Globes, Streep won lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy. The pic itself was up for Best Film in that Musical or Comedy derby while Emily Blunt was among the quintet vying for Supporting Actress.

    The original posted scores of 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. The follow-up? 75% on RT with 61 on Metacritic! That tracks with the general consensus that 2 is a worthy if unspectacular continuation for these characters. I doubt Streep gets Academy nod #22 for this but she could certainly get her 35th Golden Globe at-bat. A spot in Best Musical or Comedy will be dependent on level of competition.

    At the Oscars, Costume Design is obviously in play. Then there’s the original song “Runway” from Lady Gaga and Doechii. It could mark the former’s 4th nom in Original Song. She won with “Shallow” from A Star Is Born while “Til It Happens to You” (2015’s The Hunting Ground) and “Hold My Hand” (2022’s Top Gun: Maverick) made the dance. The Prada track is more uptempo and may not be as Academy-friendly as the aforementioned ballads. I still wouldn’t count her out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

    My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

    This third write-up brings us to Best Supporting Actress. If you missed the previous two posts covering Actress and Supporting Actor, you can find them here:

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

    I often refer to the “pen” theory on this blog when discussing my Oscar forecasts. Those are performers and pictures whose nominations can be written in pen. For the 97th Academy Awards in Supporting Actress, I believe there’s two surefire selections.

    Pop star Ariana Grande’s turn as Glinda has bewitched audiences worldwide. She’s received a key quartet of noms at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and the BAFTA long list. Her inclusion appears assured.

    The same can be said for Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and I have her placed in 1st. That’s because Saldaña has also achieved the aforementioned precursors with a victory at the Globes.

    And then it’s a bit of a free for all with 8 performers, in my view, vying for 3 slots. Before we discuss them, let’s take a moment to mention some actresses whose nods once seemed possible. Then their pictures debuted and either the movies were looked at as disappointments or their roles weren’t significant enough to warrant awards buzz. I’m talking about Lady Gaga from Joker: Folie à Deux, Toni Collettee in Juror #2, Lashana Lynch from Bob Marley: One Love, and Hong Chau in Kinds of Kindness, to name a few.

    Despite making the BAFTA long list, don’t look for Adriana Paz in Emilia Pérez to contend with the focus on cast mates Karla Sofia Gascón in lead and Saldaña and Selena Gomez (we’ll get to her shortly) here. Emily Watson also made the BAFTA cut in Small Things like These but isn’t expected to factor into the Academy derby. Same with Michele Austin in Hard Truths.

    The next group were once seen as viable and have not made it to the precursors. Their nominations are not totally impossible. However, they would be rightly seen as major spoilers. I would include Joan Chen (Dídi), Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), and Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) in this lot.

    We return to the 8 performers circling three Oscar chairs. They are: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

    Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown has only popped up in one of the 4 previously discussed precursors. In her favor… it’s the most recent at SAG and Unknown has generally been over performing this season. I don’t have her predicted at press time and she’s 5th out of these 8 possibilities.

    Jamie Lee Curtis, two years after winning this prize for Everything Everywhere All at Once, is in the mix once again for The Last Showgirl. She could also benefit from recency bias. While she didn’t factor in at the Globes or Critics Choice, her name has been called in the last few days with the BAFTA long list and SAG. I have her 6th out of the 8 possibilities.

    Danielle Deadwyler has the disadvantage of The Piano Lesson not being a Best Picture contender or being a threat for a nomination anywhere else. The SAG nod this week kept her in the conversation and she also received Critics Choice. Two years ago, she was notably snubbed for her lead performance in Till and that could assist her now. I have her 3rd out of the 8 possibilities and just getting in.

    Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Nickel Boys has only shown up at Critics Choice and the movie itself may or may not make the BP dance. While her standing in the eventual quintet looks shaky, I wouldn’t totally discount her and she’s 7th out of the 8 possibilities.

    Selena Gomez is undoubtedly in the shadow of costar Saldaña though she’s in the BAFTA long list and was nominated at the Globes. A SAG nod would have caused her to be higher, but she’s 8th out of the 8 possibilities.

    Felicity Jones made BAFTA and Globes and was a surprise no-show at Critics Choice and SAG. I suspect The Brutalist‘s eventual standing at Oscar helps and I have her 1st among these 8 possibilities.

    Margaret Qualley is nowhere near as guaranteed an Academy invite as her Substance lead Demi Moore. Of the four precursors, she has only missed SAG. I didn’t predict her there and I currently have her 4th of these 8 possibilities. That would leave her barely on the outside looking in.

    Finally, despite a short amount of screen time in Conclave, Isabella Rossellini also only missed SAG. Unlike Qualley, I have her 3rd of the 8 hopefuls and just making the quintet.

    OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a deep dive into Best Actor up next!

    October 11-13 Box Office Predictions

    Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

    A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:

    Saturday Night Box Office Prediction
    Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction
    My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction
    Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction
    The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

    This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.

    If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.

    Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.

    I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.

    Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:

    1. Terrifier 3

    Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

    2. The Wild Robot

    Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

    3. Joker: Folie à Deux

    Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

    4. Saturday Night

    Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

    5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

    6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next

    Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

    7. Piece by Piece

    Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

    8. Transformers One

    Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

    9. The Apprentice

    Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

    Box Office Results (October 4-6)

    Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.

    The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.

    Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.

    Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.

    Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 6th Edition

    At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).

    A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.

    We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

    Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)

    12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)

    8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

    Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Drew Starkey, Queer

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

    The Substance

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Piano Lesson

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dahomey

    Caught by the Tides

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

    3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Separated

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)

    8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)

    7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)

    4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)

    5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Twisters

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Here (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    10 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

    9 Nominations

    Blitz

    6 Nominations

    Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain

    2 Nominations

    The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    October 4-6 Box Office Predictions

    Blogger’s Update (10/03): With the announcement that White Bird is only hitting just over 1000 screens, I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.1 million to $1.5 million

    Warner Bros hopes Joker: Folie à Deux can approach the gargantuan grosses that its predecessor earned five years ago while Lionsgate has the long delayed Wonder prequel White Bird out this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

    Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction
    White Bird Box Office Prediction

    A half decade ago, Joker rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $96 million debut (the best October start of all time), a $335 eventual domestic gross, and an Oscar statue for Joaquin Phoenix. With Lady Gaga joining the mayhem as Harley Quinn, word-of-mouth is more mixed for part Deux and it likely won’t achieve the hotshot premiere of part un. While my mid 50s forecast easily has it topping the charts, that’s over $40 million less out of the gate.

    As for White Bird, I expect it to be another significant under performer for distributor Lionsgate who just saw Megalopolis crash and burn (more on that below). My number for Bird puts it just outside the top five.

    As for holdovers, The Wild Robot might see a mid to high 40s decline after its solid beginning while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and Speak No Evil‘s percentage dips should be smaller. The highest plummet in the top 5 (same as this past frame) should belong to Transformers One.

    Here’s how I see it playing out:

    1. Joker: Folie à Deux

    Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

    2. The Wild Robot

    Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

    3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

    4. Transformers One

    Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

    5. Speak No Evil

    Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

    Box Office Results (September 27-29)

    DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot, with fresh reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, performed impressively with $35.7 million. That’s just ahead of my $33.8 million take and it should play well throughout the next few weeks.

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, after three weeks in 1st, slid to second with $16.2 million. That’s a mere 37% decline and beyond my $14.8 million prediction. The sequel has amassed $250 million in four weeks.

    The news was more distressing for Transformers One as it plummeted 63% in its sophomore frame to $9.1 million. I was more generous at $11.5 million as Hasbro’s latest underwhelming franchise entry has taken in $39 million in ten days.

    Epic Indian Telugu-language action flick Devara: Part 1 opened in fourth with $5.6 million with the second best per screen average in the top 10. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

    Speak No Evil was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $3.4 million). The thriller sits at $28 million after three weeks.

    Finally, Francis Ford Coppola’s self-financed Megalopolis (with a reported $120 million price tag) could not overcome mostly middling reviews and audience ambivalence. It was sixth with $4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. With a D+ Cinemascore, I suspect this falls over 65% in its second weekend. Ouch.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

    When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

    For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

    That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

    It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

    That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

    I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

    This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

    You can all view all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Life of Chuck

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

    Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Life of Chuck

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    All We Imagine as Light

    Pedro Páramo

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Skywalkers: A Love Story

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Conclave

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Nickel Boys

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    The Room Next Door

    The Life of Chuck

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

    “We’re Back” from Moana 2

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Civil War

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

    And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    10 Nominations

    Blitz

    9 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

    6 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    A Real Pain, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction

    Arriving five years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux dances into multiplexes on October 4th. Todd Phillips is back in the director’s chair with Joaquin Phoenix reprising his Oscar-winning role as Arthur Fleck. Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn joins the musical mayhem alongside Catherine Keener, Brendan Gleeson, Zazie Beetz, Harry Lawtey, and Steve Coogan.

    A half decade ago, Joker decimated expectations and set records with a $96 million opening on its way to $335 million domestically. Worldwide it amassed a haul of just over one billion bucks and garnered 11 Academy Awards nominations including Phoenix’s victory.

    Like the original, Deux was first seen at the Venice Film Festival where reaction was decidedly mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 63% with 54 on Metacritic. Tracking suggests the sequel might not be the phenomenon of what we witnessed in 2019.

    This is not expected to top the starting number of Joker. The question is how far it falls under. I suspect the so-so buzz could mean mid 50s and that’s a far cry from its predecessor.

    Joker: Folie à Deux opening weekend prediction: $54.3 million

    For my White Bird prediction, click here:

    White Bird Box Office Prediction

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 21st Edition

    The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.

    There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.

    We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.

    For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)

    14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Queer

    Nosferatu

    The Apprentice

    All We Imagine as Light

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    The Piano Lesson

    Wicked

    Juror No. 2

    His Three Daughters

    A Different Man

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

    James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

    Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

    Luca Guadagnino, Queer

    Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

    Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

    Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

    June Squibb, Thelma

    Zendaya, Challengers

    Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

    Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

    Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

    John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

    Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress

    Lesley Manville, Queer

    Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

    Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

    Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Drew Starkey, Queer

    Harris Dickinson, Blitz

    Mark Eidelstein, Anora

    Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

    John Lithgow, Conclave

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)

    Dropped Out:

    His Three Daughters

    Dídi

    Kinds of Kindness

    A Different Man

    Juror No. 2

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    I’m Still Here

    Gladiator II

    Nightbitch

    Inside Out 2

    Nosferatu

    The Wild Robot

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Simon of the Mountain

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Room Next Door

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Queer

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

    “Why Am I Here” from Shirley

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    A Complete Unknown

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    8 Nominations

    Blitz

    6 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Conclave, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

    To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.

    Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.

    Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.

    There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.

    In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.

    And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.

    Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

    12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)

    14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)

    15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)

    17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)

    18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)

    19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)

    21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)

    22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)

    23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Nightbitch

    Maria

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting

    Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

    14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    André Holland, The Actor

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Kathy Burke, Blitz

    Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)

    Dropped Out:

    Stephen Graham, Blitz

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    The Fire Inside

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)

    5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Count of Monte Cristo

    Cloud

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Queer

    Maria

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Queer

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)

    9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    Blitz

    Nickel Boys

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

    “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

    “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Civil War

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Alien: Romulus

    And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Conclave, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked