Tag: amy adams

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. After the Hunt

3. Jay Kelly

4. Sinners

5. Marty Supreme

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident

7. Sorry, Baby

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. The Secret Agent

10. Ann Lee

11. Rental Family

12. Ella McCay

13. Is This Thing On?

14. Nouvelle Vague

15. A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hamnet

2. Bugonia

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. One Battle After Another

5. No Other Choice

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein

7. Wicked: For Good

8. The Life of Chuck

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Train Dreams

11. Die, My Love

12. Late Fame

13. Highest 2 Lowest

14. Hedda

15. The Smashing Machine

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. The Secret Agent

4. No Other Choice

5. The President’s Cake

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirát

7. Sound of Falling

8. Left-Handed Girl

9. Nouvelle Vague

10. The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2

2. Arco

3. Elio

4. Scarlet

5. In Your Dreams

Other Possibilities:

6. Animal Farm

7. A Magnificent Life

8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

9. KPop Demon Hunters

10. Ne Zha 2

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Seeds

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Cutting Through Rocks

5. Deaf President Now!

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

10. The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. After the Hunt

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Sentimental Value

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly

7. Marty Supreme

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Frankenstein

3. Bugonia

4. Marty Supreme

5. The Rivals of Amziah King

Other Possibilities:

6. F1

7. Sentimental Value

8. Nouvelle Vague

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

10. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

5. Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Lee

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8. Mother Mary

9. Snow White

10. One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Bugonia

5. F1

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt

7. Wicked: For Good

8. One Battle After Another

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later

7. Bugonia

8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Wolf Man

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Bugonia

3. After the Hunt

4. Frankenstein

5. Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another

7. F1

8. Sentimental Value

9. The Rivals of Amziah King

10. Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5. TBD from Zootopia 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

10. TBD from Mother Mary

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia

7. One Battle After Another

8. Marty Supreme

9. The Phoenician Scheme

10. Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Warfare

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

9. Frankenstein

10. Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Superman

4. Frankenstein

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

7. F1

8. How to Train Your Dragon

9. Tron: Ares

10. Sinners

Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

After the Hunt

7 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

6 Nominatons

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominatons

F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 22nd Edition

As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.

While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.

I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.

The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)

17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)

24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sound of Falling

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)

Best Actress

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)

11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)

14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 8th Edition

There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.

With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).

Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)

5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)

13. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (E)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Sinners

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 25th Edition

It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.

This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.

There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.

Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.

Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)

14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)

24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026

Is This Thing On?

Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)

11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jack O’Connell, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, Michael

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (moved to lead actor)

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.

For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.

That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.

I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.

And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.

After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).

This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.

I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.

Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.

Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.

For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.

Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.

Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.

Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: January 10th Edition

    Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.

    Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.

    The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.

    So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.

    There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

    Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).

    More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

    6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

    12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

    8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

    Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    A Different Man

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Hit Man

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked

    Best Costume Design

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Nickel Boys

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

    12 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Conclave

    8 Nominations

    Wicked

    6 Nominations

    Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two

    5 Nominations

    The Substance

    4 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    31st SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

    Nominations for the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards roll out this Wednesday, January 8th. They are, of course, another key precursor before Oscar noms are unveiled January 17th. However, this branch can often go there own way and that’s especially true for lead Actress and the supporting fields. Let’s take a walk through all six feature film categories with my picks, a runner-up possibility, and some commentary.

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    At the last five SAGs, 18 of the 25 nominees matched the Oscar selections. In none of the years did SAG and the Academy match 5 for 5. Therefore, I’m hesitant to project my current Oscar quintet of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Demi Moore (The Substance). I would say Gascón, Madison, and Moore feel relatively safe with Erivo and Jolie (especially after missing the BAFTA long list) vulnerable. Who could spoil the party? I wouldn’t discount Kate Winslet (Lee), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), or Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Yet I just can’t decide who to take out the original group so I’m (reluctantly) sticking with it.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

    Angelina Jolie, Maria

    Mikey Madison, Anora

    Demi Moore, The Substance

    Runner-Up: Kate Winslet, Lee

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    In this contest, SAG and the Academy is more synced up at 22/25 over the past five years and 5 for 5 matches in 2020, 2021, and 2023 and 4 for 5 for 2019 and 2022. That means I’m feeling confident about these four slots that most agree will achieve Oscar status – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). It’s that fifth one that’s a question mark. I currently have Daniel Craig (Queer) clinging to the Academy spot. However, I could see SAG going for either Hugh Grant (Heretic) or Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). I’ll go with the latter.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

    Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Like Actress, there’s an 18 for 25 SAG/Oscar matchup over the previous half decade. In 2020, there was only a 2 for 5 match while it was 5/5 in 2022. I feel like only two performers are safe: Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. Despite the short screen time, Isabella Rossellini in Conclave seems likely. For Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, she needs to show up here and I have her barely making the cut. While I have Felicity Jones currently getting an Oscar nod for The Brutalist, she may be on the outside looking in here. The fifth slot could be Saldaña’s costar Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley in The Substance, or either Elle Fanning or Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown. I’m going to roll the dice with Gomez on this one which would cause Pérez to probably lead all nominated pictures.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

    Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

    Ariana Grande, Wicked

    Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

    Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: Margaret Qualley, The Substance

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    There’s a 17 for 25 SAG/Oscar match here. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has a reserved spot in the five and I feel like SAG won’t ignore Denzel Washington from Gladiator II. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) is probably close to a shoo-in. For the last two spots, I would think they’d go for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing unless they figure an Ensemble nomination is recognition enough. For the five spot, I had it between Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) with the former having the edge. I’ll be honest. I hate that this is my current Oscar quintet but it is what it is. Keep an eye on surprisers like Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), or Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)

    Predicted Nominees:

    Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

    Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

    Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

    Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

    Runner-Up: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    As an annual reminder, SAG isn’t honoring “Best Picture”. It’s their favorite ensemble. Normally there’s at least one nominee that doesn’t get a BP nod from the Academy. Perhaps Saturday Night is that movie, but I’m skeptical. The top 7 possibilities here – Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked – are all serious BP contenders. The Brutalist (despite being first in my Oscar mix at the moment) could be vulnerable due to its smaller cast. It’s a coin flip as to what else comes out, but I’m going with Sing Sing.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Anora

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Emilia Pérez

    Wicked

    Runner-Up: Sing Sing

    Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    Give credit to SAG as they give credit to stunt performers and this sure seems like a competition that’s tailor-made for The Fall Guy in 2024. Other possibilities include Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and maybe even Wicked. I also wouldn’t discount Dev Patel’s Monkey Man. That said, I’m forecasting Deadpool & Wolverine enough though Mr. Pool’s two predecessors didn’t get in here.

    Predicted Nominees:

    Deadpool & Wolverine

    Dune: Part Two

    The Fall Guy

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Gladiator II

    Runner-Up: Monkey Man

    That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

    4 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    3 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Wicked

    2 Nominations

    Anora, The Brutalist, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

    1 Nomination

    The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Maria, Monkey Man, The Piano Lesson, A Real Pain, The Substance

    I’ll have a recap up with how I did on Wednesday!

    82nd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

    The awards season kicks into high gear this Sunday when Nikki Glaser hosts the 82nd Golden Globe Awards on CBS. In several categories, it could be our first clue as to what direction Oscar will go. Perhaps there will be thespians who begin their sweeps. It’s the Globes so surprises could certainly be in order.

    Looking over the nominees, there is a lot of uncertainty in many races. That’s befitting of a year in which there is no clear frontrunner (at least yet) for Best Picture and some acting derbies. Let’s run through each competition and I’ll give you my predicted winner and a runner-up.

    Best Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5

    The lack of a frontrunner begins at the top though this would appear to be between The Brutalist and Conclave (with perhaps Unknown as a spoiler). I’m giving the slight edge to the former, but Conclave emerging could easily occur.

    Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked

    Logic would dictate that the acclaimed Anora stands out front. Yet I can’t escape the fact that the Globes love their musicals and that could benefit Pérez and the box office behemoth Wicked. With ten nominations, Pérez is the most nominated Musical/Comedy in ceremony history. Ultimately I’m playing it safe with Anora, but this is up in the air more than some other prognosticators may feel.

    Predicted Winner: Anora

    Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

    Best Director

    Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

    While the Picture categories are tricky to project, I do feel relatively confident Corbet’s work prevails here.

    Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Substance

    Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)

    If you go by my current forecasted quintet for Actress at the Oscars, I only have Jolie nominated among the six hopefuls here. That puts her out front in my view though Kidman and Torres could spoil.

    Predicted Winner: Angelina Jolie, Maria

    Runner-Up: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    Ugh. This one is tough. Being that I’m predicting The Brutalist as Best Pic, Brody stands an excellent shot. It’s also worth noting that he did not win the Globe for 2002’s The Pianist in which he took the Oscar so this would be his first statue from this branch. Brody is probably the safer selection, but I have a strange hunch that Chalamet (who had a dynamite 2024) ultimately makes the podium walk.

    Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)

    While Erivo, Gascón, and Moore are all feasible upset picks, this might be the easiest of the six acting races to project. Madison is the favorite.

    Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison, Anora

    Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

    And this might be the toughest to project. All six nominees are long shots to make the cut at Oscar. Eisenberg is possible considering A Real Pain is contending elsewhere and he stars in the only film up for Best Pic. Powell is one of the buzziest leading men in recent years. Grant drew raves while Heretic being up in Musical or Comedy is a bit of a stretch. Stan is a double nominee and he’s got no chance in Drama so perhaps he emerges here. This is a four-way coin toss in my estimation.

    Predicted Winner: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

    Runner-Up: Hugh Grant, Heretic

    Best Supporting Actress

    Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    The Globes can provide shockers in this one – Jodie Foster in The Mauritanian, anyone? That’s why Rossellini taking this wouldn’t be a massive surprise. This could, however, come down to Grande vs. Saldaña and I’m leaning toward the latter ever so slightly.

    Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

    Runne-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

    Best Supporting Actor

    Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

    I wouldn’t put it past the Globes to honor Washington, but I have this between Culkin and Pearce. Culkin has picked up a lot of critics prizes and this could be the beginning of a sweep. The same could be said for Pearce if he picks up the hardware. I’ll say Culkin in a close one.

    Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

    Best Screenplay

    Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance

    This could be Conclave‘s strongest shot at a major award, but Anora is where you want to place your bets.

    Predicted Winner: Anora

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    Best Non-English Language Motion Picture

    Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

    Especially considering its director Payal Kapadia is in contention, Light (which India did not select for International Feature Film at the Oscars) could win. Yet the safer pick is the nominations leading Pérez.

    Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

    Best Animated Motion Picture

    Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    While Robot is the leading contender, I have a feeling the Globes may opt for Flow (which is racking up critics prizes left and right) in an upset.

    Predicted Winner: Flow

    Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

    Best Original Score

    Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

    Like Drama, I think this is between Brutalist and Conclave. Like Drama, I have the former victorious.

    Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

    Runner-Up: Conclave

    Best Original Song

    Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Forbidden Road” from Better Man; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

    This might be our first clue as to which Pérez tune is the odds on favorite over the season. This could also be “Kiss the Sky” if the Pérez songs split. This is some straight guesswork here.

    Predicted Winner: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

    Runner-Up: “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

    Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

    Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    This sequel heavy lineup features 2024’s largest earner with Deadpool & Wolverine. It’s Wicked that likely ends up winning considering the nominations elsewhere.

    Predicted Winner: Wicked

    Runner-Up: Deadpool & Wolverine

    And there you have it! My predictions give win totals to these pictures:

    3 Wins

    Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

    1 Win

    A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, Maria, A Real Pain, Wicked

    I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with my take on the ceremony and how I did (spoiler: I’m nervous).

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

    These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

    The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

    Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jon M. Chu, Wicked

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joan Chen, Dídi

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29 –

    4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

    8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

    10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

    8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Anora

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

    Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    8 Nominations

    Conclave

    7 Nominations

    Wicked

    5 Nominations

    Anora, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys

    2 Nominations

    The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 22nd Edition

    My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:

    2024 Oscar Shortlists Reaction

    Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.

    In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.

    You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)

    7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

    8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)

    10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    Wicked

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)

    5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sasquatch Sunset

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nickel Boys

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Forbidden Road” from Better Man

    “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

    “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Substance

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Brutalist

    Nosferatu

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    The Substance

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Substance

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:

    11 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    8 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two, Wicked

    7 Nominations

    Conclave

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II

    3 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    1 Nomination

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper