Tag: Adam Driver

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

    He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

    We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

    John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

    For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

    The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    Tom Cruise, Digger

    Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

    Andrew Garfield, Artificial

    Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

    Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    Will Poulter, Saturn Return

    Dominic Sessa, Tony

    Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Oscar Predictions: Father Mother Sister Brother

    Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother is your surprise Venice Golden Lion winner (top prize) for 2025. The dramedy anthology from the veteran indie filmmaker boasts a cast featuring Cate Blanchett, Adam Driver, Tom Waits, Vicky Krieps, Mayim Bialik, Charlotte Rampling, Indya Moore, Luka Sabbat, and Sarah Greene.

    The three act pic is being distributed by Mubi with a stateside release on Christmas Eve. While Italian reaction was positive, it would seem the jury’s verdict was even more effusive. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 79 on Metacritic.

    Five of the last 10 Lion recipients have gone onto a Best Picture nomination from the Academy – The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (which also won), and Poor Things. Jarmusch has never been a fixture with Oscar voters. Despite the Venice boost, I doubt that will change with Original Screenplay perhaps being the only realistic possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

    My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

    The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

    Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.

    However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).

    Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).

    There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).

    That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

    Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.

    Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.

    Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.

    Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.

    For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.

    OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!

    The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 49 – Chloe Fineman

    They’re not all former cast members on my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time list as #49 is Chloe Fineman, who just began her sixth season on the iconic sketch show. She’s proven herself to be one of the program’s strongest impressionists including Meryl Streep, Scarlett Johansson, and Drew Barrymore. That’s in addition to dancing alongside Julia Stiles in a Save the Last Dance inspired Update bit and uproariously understudying fellow cast members in a digital short. Her take on con artist Anna Delvey is another example of her versatility as Fineman is one of SNL’s current bright spots.

    #48 will be posted soon!

    Chloe Fineman

    Year on the Show: 2019-Present

    Megalopolis Box Office Prediction

    Financed on his own dime for $120 million, legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola brings his passion project Megalopolis to the big screen on September 27th. The sci-fi epic has a sprawling cast to match its budget including Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Laurence Fishburne, Talia Shire, Jason Schwartzman, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.

    This is only Coppola’s fourth feature in the 21st century and his first in 13 years (since the little seen Twixt). Cinephiles should have an interest on that fact alone, but there should be struggles for this to have any sort of mainstream breakthrough. When Megalopolis premiered at Cannes, it did so with mixed to negative reactions (the RT score is 52 and Metacritic is 59). It may not help that Coppola was recently subject to news stories about unprofessional behavior on set.

    Lionsgate picked up distribution and they’ve had a string of failures in recent weeks including Borderlands and The Crow. This may turn out to be the biggest bomb of all. Tracking is suggesting only mid single digits and I don’t see it getting beyond that.

    Megalopolis opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

    For my The Wild Robot prediction, click here:

    The Wild Robot Box Office Prediction

    Oscar Predictions: Heretic

    A24 has premiered Heretic at the Toronto Film Festival before it hits multiplexes on November 15th. The psychological horror pic casts Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door. Scott Beck and Bryan Woods co-direct. They are best known for penning the wildly successful A Quiet Place in 2018. On the flip side, they helmed and scripted Adam Driver’s dino adventure 65 last year. It was a box office and critical failure.

    Early reaction from Canada indicates that Heretic mostly succeeds. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89 with Metacritic at 67. Critics are certainly directing their applause to Grant in his creepy role. Despite four Golden Globe nominations for feature films (all in Musical/Comedy and he won for 1994’s Four Weddings and a Funeral), the Academy has yet to mention his name. That won’t change here as this genre rarely gets noticed by the voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: Megalopolis

    Instead of saying it’s made with spirit, you can accurately say Megalopolis was made with spirits. As in wine because legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola reportedly sold a hefty portion of that business to finance the $120 million production. This is Coppola’s dream project (in development since the late 1970s) and the sci-fi drama influenced by the fall of the Roman Empire has premiered at Cannes. The large cast includes Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Jason Schwartzman, Talia Shire, Grace VanderWaal, Laurence Fishburne, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.

    Some reaction from the Riviera is heaping praise on the long gestating picture. There’s plenty more calling it a mess (though a wildly ambitious one) and you can see it in the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

    At 85, Coppola is rightfully regarded as one of cinema’s most important figures. That said, for every The Godfather, The Conversation, and Apocalypse Now, there’s some flops and flicks that received middling reviews. His 2011 predecessor Twixt, for example, came and went with scant fanfare.

    Despite the high profile surroundings with this unveiling, awards prospects are shaky and that might be generous. I suppose tech races like Production Design or Costume Design could happen, but I think it’s entirely possible the Academy ignores this altogether. One might think Visual Effects is doable yet that aspect is receiving its share of disparagement. The large cast should come up empty-handed too. The three Godfather sagas saw 10 performers get nominated. Based on the write-ups I’ve seen, I don’t see any of the thespians here contending. Same goes for Coppola and his movie. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

    Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

    Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

    Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

    Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

    Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

    13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

    15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

    16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

    17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

    18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

    19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

    20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

    22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

    23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

    24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

    25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Here

    Wicked

    Gladiator II

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sean Wang, Dídi

    Alex Garland, Civil War

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

    3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

    4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

    15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

    9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

    Adam Driver, Megalopolis

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

    3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

    11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

    12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

    13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

    Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

    Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

    13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

    Paul Raci, Sing Sing

    Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

    Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

    A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

    Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

    Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

    You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

    With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz

    2. Dune: Part Two

    3. Conclave

    4. Sing Sing

    5. The End

    6. Queer

    7. The Fire Inside

    8. Bird

    9. Kinds of Kindness

    10. Dídi

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux

    12. The Apprentice

    13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    15. Civil War

    16. Maria

    17. Megalopolis

    18. The Piano Lesson

    19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

    20. A Real Pain

    21. Here

    22. The Nickel Boys

    23. Hard Truths

    24. Wicked

    25. Gladiator II

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave

    4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

    5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

    7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

    8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

    9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

    10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

    11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    12. Sean Wang, Dídi

    13. Alex Garland, Civil War

    14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

    15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

    3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

    4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

    5. Tilda Swinton, The End

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

    8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

    10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

    12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    13. Zendaya, Challengers

    14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

    4. Daniel Craig, Queer

    5. André Holland, The Actor

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

    7. George MacKay, The End

    8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

    10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

    12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

    13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

    14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

    15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Joan Chen, Dídi

    2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

    3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

    4. Lesley Manville, Queer

    5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

    7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

    8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

    9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

    10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

    11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

    12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

    13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

    14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

    15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

    3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

    8. Drew Starkey, Queer

    9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

    10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

    11. John Lithgow, Conclave

    12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

    13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

    14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

    15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

    As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!