For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.
This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).
Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).
I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.
The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million
For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. DÃdi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, DÃdi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and Director and they can be perused here:
We now move to the big prize. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded half of the eventual nominees: the winner Oppenheimer in addition to Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Barbie and The Holdovers. I did not identify American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, or The Zone of Interest at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
It is a safe assumption that the year’s biggest grosser thus far – Dune: Part Two – has punched its ticket to contention. Everything else, frankly, is guesswork right now. With Cannes coming up, some questions will be answered soon. Followers of the blog, however, know this is a months long process in the BP puzzle. It starts today.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
Bird
Blitz
Conclave
DÃdi
Dune: Part Two
The End
The Fire Inside
Kinds of Kindness
Queer
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
The Apprentice
Civil War
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator 2
Hard Truths
Horizon: Am America Saga – Chapter 2
Joker: Folie à Deux
Megalopolis
The Nickel Boys
Nightbitch
The Piano Lesson
A Real Pain
Wicked
I’ll have my first rankings in the six major categories up in short order!
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
And here we go! We are about four weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded two nominees: winner Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer and Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Colman Domingo in Rustin and Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers I did not identify Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actor.
My first projections give Colman Domingo a second shot in a row in this competition. Cillian Murphy could be back as well. They also open up the possibility of Joaquin Phoenix’s return as Joker giving him another statue in the role. In 2023, I listed Kingsley Ben-Adir in Bob Marley: One Love as one of my predicted quintet. Now he’s an Other Possibility (and a somewhat remote one at that).
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
My very first glimpse of the acting races, Director, and Picture for the 97th Academy Awards reaches Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it here:
When I did my initial speculation for this competition in 2023 (just about a year ago), it yielded one eventual nominee and that was Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers in addition to fellow nominee Jodie Foster (Nyad). I did not identify Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) or America Ferrera (Barbie) at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Performers listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress.
This premiere post highlights plenty of veteran thespians with previous noms. It is worth noting that none of them are previous victors. We also have some newcomers to the awards scene.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.
This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
South by Southwest is happening now and giving us some potential awards players (keep an eye out for my imminent Civil War post for example). It was at last year’s SXSW that festival goers were first exposed to Late Night with the Devil. Australian brothers Colin and Cameron Cairnes direct the 1970s set found footage horror flick with David Dastmalchian as a talk show host showcasing some demonic guests. Laura Gordon, Ian Bliss, and Fayssal Bazzi costar.
Devil is finally slated for stateside distribution on March 22nd with a Shudder streaming bow on April 19th. Many reviews are raves and it sports a 100% RT score. Dastmalchian, a memorable character who you may recognize from Prisoners, The Suicide Squad, Dune, and Oppenheimer, is being praised for this rare lead role.
That said, this is not the kind of material that awards voters notice… at least at the big dance. Perhaps the Indie Spirit Awards will be more attuned to its scare tactics. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ryan Gosling (fresh off his third Oscar nom for Barbie) and Emily Blunt (just up for her first with Oppenheimer) lead the cast of The Fall Guy, slated for May 3rd. We are a month and a half away from that release, but it had a splashy debut at South by Southwest and the buzz is substantial. David Leitch (the man behind John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, and Bullet Train) directs with a supporting cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Stephanie Hsu, and Hannah Waddingham.
Based on the 1980s action TV series starring Lee Majors, Gosling plays a stunt man once again after portraying the same profession in The Place Beyond the Pines and Drive. Critics are calling it a lovingly crafted and quite funny and romantic homage to the cinematic workers who put themselves in danger for our entertainment. It stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While we wait for the Academy to develop a category honoring stunt performers (like SAG does), The Fall Guy‘s best and perhaps only hope at recognition is in tech races like Sound (feasible) and Visual Effects (maybe more of a reach). Assuming Universal campaigns for it in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, its luck could be better with potential nods in Film, Actor, and Actress. And, yes, its chances for inclusion in the SAG Stunt Ensemble race seems like a no brainer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For his performance as Rustin, Colman Domingo was up for his first Oscar nomination last night as he ultimately fell short as expected to Cillian Murphy’s Oppenheimer. He could see a return to the ceremony quickly with Sing Sing. Greg Kwedar’s drama is based on a real life arts program from the maximum security prison in the title. Domingo leads a cast that includes Paul Raci (nominated for Supporting Actor in 2020 for Sound of Metal) and actual former inmates.
The film was screened in Toronto all the way back in September of last year. A24 snatched up the rights based on the north of the border acclaim (the RT rating is 95%) and have slated a July release. If the studio mounts a spirited campaign (and they probably will), Sing Sing could be an across the board contender in Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and perhaps Original Score (where Bryce Dessner’s work is being singled out). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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