Best Director is on deck for my closeup looks at six major categories at the Oscars. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can find them here:
As I have with the other competitions, let’s see how accurate my estimates were from 2019-21 at the same early November time period. In 2019, I correctly had 4 of the 5 eventual directors: winner Bong Joon-ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), and Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Todd Phillips (Joker) was identified in Other Possibilities. 2020 was a trickier year due to COVID complications and I had 2 of the contenders rightly pegged: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (who won) and David Fincher for Mank. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) was in Other Possibilities while Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) and Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) were not yet in my top ten. Last year, I had 3 of 5 with the victorious Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza). Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) was in Other Possibilities and I didn’t have Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) yet in the mix.
I don’t have Spielberg down as an Other Possibility in 2022. This time around, he could be in line for his third Best Director statue behind 1993’s Schindler’s List and 1998’s Saving Private Ryan. It would mark his ninth overall nom. If he wins, he would become only the fourth filmmaker with three or more victories. John Ford has 4 while Frank Capra and William Wyler have 3.
The last four years have given us a nominee with an International Feature Film contender. In addition to Joon-ho in 2019 and Vinterberg and Hamaguchi the following years, Alfonso Cuaron took the prize in 2018 for Roma. There are two in 2022 that stand the best shot: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave). If you want to be brave and predict an out of nowhere selection (like Vinterberg kinda was in 2020), look to Lukas Dhont (Close) or Jerzy Skolimowski (EO). Maybe even Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Bardo though he faces a tough road due to mixed critical reception.
However, I’m not quite ready to elevate any of them to the forecasted quintet. Damien Chazelle’s Babylon will soon screen prior to its December bow. It has the looks of a contender and he’s in unless the buzz tells me differently in a few days.
I’m also feeling good about the Daniels (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Same goes for Sarah Polley (Women Talking). Both appear to be surefire BP selections and would mark the Academy’s first mentions for them in this race.
As for the fifth spot, there’s plenty of names beyond the aforementioned international auteurs. Todd Field for Tár tops that list with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) not far behind. If Avatar: The Way of Water approaches the reception that the original received, James Cameron could enter the conversation.
If She Said or The Whale pick up even more steam in BP, I wouldn’t discount Maria Schrader or Darren Aronofsky respectively. That same logic applies to Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. I’ve had him in my five previously.
Perhaps the voters will honor the maker of the year’s biggest blockbuster with Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick. The more likely path is a BP nom and a few tech inclusions.
This race can and will evolve over the next couple of months. Here’s the state of the race right now:
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
In an alternative universe, Emancipation might be in my top 10 predicted Best Picture nominees. I could potentially be discussing Will Smith’s chances of being the first back to back acting winner since Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.
I didn’t think this alternative universe could be a potential reality in the 2022 awards season. In 2021, Apple TV beat Netflix and others to the punch as CODA was the inaugural streaming Best Picture winner. For a while, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon appeared to be Apple’s best shot at making it two years in a row. That’s until it got pushed to 2023. In recent weeks, there was speculation that Ridley Scott’s Napoleon starring Joaquin Phoenix could make a jump to 2022. It wasn’t to be.
This has left Apple without a legit across the board Oscar player… until maybe today. Why? The streamer announced that Antoine Fuqua’s historical drama Emancipation will hit theaters for an awards qualifying run on December 2nd and then be available for home viewing on December 9th. The trailer was unveiled this morning.
And in case you’re still wondering why I’m skeptical… two words: The Slap. Yes, the slap heard around the globe when Chris Rock presented Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards and cracked a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith. And, of course, slap provider Will Smith giving his acceptance speech a few minutes later when he was victorious in Best Actor for King Richard.
Since then, many of Smith’s planned projects have entered turnaround status. Emancipation, in which he plays a slave who joins the Union Army, was already filmed. And Apple made the surprising decision in early October to get it out two months later. This surely means Smith will be subject to interviews where he’ll address The Slap sooner than later.
So… the obvious question: can Smith get nominated? Can the film itself do so in other categories? Even though the star resigned from the Academy in the aftermath of the incident, he can still be nominated (and he can attend if invited by other members). So while the short answer is yes… the real answer is more complicated.
My gut is that Smith’s work in Emancipation would have to be undeniably awards worthy to make the final five. Even that could be a stretch. Time heals controversies and not much time has passed. As for the film itself, it could surely garner nods from Best Picture on down (I’m curious if Ben Foster gets any chatter for Supporting Actor). Yet it starts off at a unique disadvantage.
We won’t know until reviews start surfacing and that could be a few weeks. I can only assume Apple will give this a major push for consideration. It’s a campaign that is an uphill battle for reasons unfathomable just a few months ago.
My blog series continues with speculation on what a Best Picture lineup of five would have looked like in the years since the format changed to up to 10 nominees. That began in 2009 and if you missed my previous posts covering 2009-2012, you can peruse them here:
In our year of 2013, the magic number was 9 contenders. We know that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave would have been included since a win in Best Picture was among its nine nominations. It also took Director, Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o), and Adapted Screenplay. So what else would’ve made the cut? Let’s speculate, shall we?
American Hustle
David O. Russell’s disco era crime pic tied for the most nods with 10, including Director and four acting mentions for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence. Despite the double digit nomination haul, it ended the night with zero victories.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Even with the goose egg, the sheer number of nods indicates making the quintet.
Captain Phillips
With Tom Hanks as the title character in the true life Somali pirate drama, Paul Greengrass’s tense thriller scored 6 overall nods. In addition to Pic, Supporting Actor (Barkhad Abdi), Adapted Screenplay, both Sound races, and Film Editing were in the mix. Like Hustle, there were no wins.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. With no nods for directing or Hanks’s performance (which was a huge snub), I think this would’ve been on the outside looking in.
Dallas Buyers Club
While our first two selections went 0 for 16, this mid 80s set AIDS drama won half of its six nominations – Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), and Makeup and Hairstyling. The other two mentions were Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but it’s a close call. The three gold statues put it over the edge in my opinion despite not landing a directing slot for the late Jean-Marc Vallee.
Gravity
Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller tied Hustle with 10 nominations. Unlike Hustle, it won 70% of its possibilities: Director, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. Sandra Bullock was nominated for Best Actress and it got a Production Design nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Even without a screenplay nom, this would’ve been in contention and it was probably the runner-up to Slave considering the Cuaron win.
Her
Spike Jonze’s quirky romantic drama won Original Screenplay and was up for Score, Song, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No because it missed out on key precursors including Director, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Film Editing.
Nebraska
Alexander Payne’s B&W road dramedy nabbed five other nods for direction, Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. It didn’t emerge victorious for any.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I struggled with this one (it’s sixth). Film Editing is often the biggest indicator of a BP nom and that’s part of the reason I gave Dallas Buyers Club a slight edge.
Philomena
Judi Dench received a Best Actress nod for this adoption drama. Adapted Screenplay and Score were the other mentions as its four overall are the least of the BP hopefuls.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. The Academy loves Dench. However, that wouldn’t have been enough for this to survive a cut to five.
The Wolf of Wall Street
Martin Scorsese’s raunchy tale of 80s excess landed Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill acting spots. The direction and Adapted Screenplay were up as well. It won none.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I will say I don’t think it’s automatic. Wolf‘s complete lack of nominations in the tech categories is a bit of a surprise, but ultimately I don’t think the voters would’ve ignored this.
As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.
Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not come out until 2023. Variety and Deadline essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to include Killers in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. If Killers ends up back on the 2022 calendar, Variety and Deadline have some explaining to do…
Another development is that Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.
The Killers announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winner Triangle of Sadness replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice opener White Noise replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room for Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally, She Said rises in Adapted Screenplay.
That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’s Babylon ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to go all the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. That was 16 years ago. Babylon could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.
I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes. The Son is now first in Adapted Screenplay since Killers has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano from The Fabelmans.
Another alteration – Empire of Light falls out of Original Screenplay with The Banshees of Inisherin in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.
That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!
The release schedule for 2022 is always shifting (though thankfully not as much as in 2020 and 2021). This week, there were reports that Netflix’s Rustin will be pushed to 2023. While this isn’t 100% confirmed, it’s enough that I’ve moved it out of contention and that’s significant. I had it pegged for a Best Picture nomination as well as Actor (Colman Domingo) and Supporting Actress (Audra McDonald) in my post from 7 days ago.
The beneficiary of Rustin falling out of contention? None other than Top Gun: Maverick. Let me be clear – I’m very skeptical that it receives a nod in the biggest race of all. Yet it’s hard to ignore the potency of its box office supremacy over the summer. Oscar voters will know that audiences will root for its inclusion. And that could be enough to push it past the finish line.
In Actor, Bardo‘s Daniel Gimenez Cacho replaces Domingo while Zoe Kazan (She Said) rises to the final five in Supporting Actress. There’s another change in Actress as I’m putting Cate Blanchett (Tar) in the mix over Regina King (Shirley). The latter is another Netflix effort where the release date seems uncertain. If they verify 2022 in the near future, she could (and probably would) get back in the mix.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Elvis (PR: 16) (E)
17. Till (PR: 21) (+4)
18. Broker (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 22) (+3)
20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 20) (E)
21. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Amsterdam (PR: 23) (E)
24. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
The Killer
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (E)
12. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chinoye Chukwu, Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
For my mid-July Oscar predictions, the Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remain intact (with some ranking maneuvering). Same goes for the Screenplay races. However, there are some significant changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, I’ve moved Audra McDonald (Rustin) and Vanessa Kirby (The Son) in the final five while taking Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) out. For Supporting Actor, I’ve had Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) perched in #1 for many weeks. With this update, he drops all the way out of the top 5 with Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) now in first position. This moves Colin Firth (Empire of Light) into the predicted quintet.
As for other news, Taika Waititi’s sports pic Next Goal Wins appears to have pushed to 2023 (it was originally slated for 202o) and that explains it dropping out of contention. And for those who haven’t caught the recently released trailers for She Said and Amsterdam, you can find them below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (+1)
13. TAR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. White Noise (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (E)
16. Elvis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 21) (+3)
19. Broker (PR: 16) (-3)
20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Till (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Decision to Leave (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Amsterdam (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Killer (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Next Goal Wins
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Todd Field, TAR (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
George C. Wolfe, Rustin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, TAR (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Michelle Williams, Showing Up
Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Christian Bale, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Nina Hoss, TAR (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (E)
12. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, Amsterdam
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Tar (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Good Nurse (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bones and All (PR: 13) (E)
14. Close (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Next Goal Wins
The Pale Blue Eye
You can anticipate the next update around the first of August!
It’s been a week and a half since I updated my estimates in the current eight Oscar races that I’m prognosticating. As July dawns, not much has changed. It’s still the same 10 Best Pic nominees though the ranking numbers have ebbed and flowed a bit.
The only actual shift is in Supporting Actress where I’m putting Zoe Kazan (She Said) back in over Audra McDonald (Rustin).
However, if you look below the predicted five in the acting derbies, you’ll see some names for the first time. They include Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water), and Dolly De Leon and Woody Harrelson (both for Triangle of Sadness).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Son (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Tar (PR: 17) (+3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Broker (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Elvis (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Amsterdam (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (-4)
24. Till (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 25) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (E)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (-3)
My final Oscar predictions for the month of June comes with some news out today that Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is likely delayed until 2023. While I didn’t have it being nominated in any of the major races, it was listed in other possibilities in Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (for Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo), and Adapted Screenplay.
As for other shifts, I’m putting Empire of Light back in the 10 BP nominees and that’s to the detriment of She Said. In Supporting Actress, I’m dropping Zoe Kazan in She Said from the high five in favor of Rustin‘s Audra McDonald.
I’ll additionally note that Top Gun: Maverick continues to rise as it flies to the #12 slot. Its continued box office domination increases the chances for BP inclusion. Time will tell if it breaks the top 10 or eventually falls out of favor. However, I have no doubt now that Paramount will mount a robust campaign considering its phenomenon status.
In Best Actor, the #1 position is back to Hugh Jackman (The Son) over Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Speaking of the former pic, I’ve moved Laura Dern’s work to supporting instead of lead.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 18) (+6)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Broker (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Tar (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Elvis (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Till (PR: 25) (+1)
25. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (E)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Todd Field, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Laura Dern, The Son (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Actress)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Broker (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)
11. Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Armageddon Time
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Nope
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Till (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bones & All (PR: 12) (+3)
10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+5)
11. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (E)
14. Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
The Banshees of Inisherin (moved to Original Screenplay)
My updated weekly Oscar predictions goes from 6 categories to 8 with the inclusion of both screenplay derbies! It’s the first time we’ve seen some titles in my possibilities such as Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Nope, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and Bones & All.
As for changes in the other races, I’m putting Rustin back in BP and that means Empire of Light drops from the top ten. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) returns to my top five in Actress over Cate Blanchett in Tar.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 10) (-1)
12. White Noise (PR: 20) (+8)
13. Broker (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Tar (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Elvis (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Next Goal Wins (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Till (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+1)
My first Oscar predictions in the six major categories for the month of June sees Top Gun: Maverick rising 3 spots to #17 in the BP derby. My ten predicted nominees remain the same as do the five estimated individuals in Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. There are changes in Actress with Cate Blanchett (Tar) in my five over Danielle Deadwyler (Till) and in Supporting Actress with Hong Chau (The Whale) being elevated over Vanessa Kirby in The Son. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 9)
9. The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 11) (E)
12. Broker (PR: 12) (E)
13. Poor Things (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Tar (PR: 24) (+8)
17. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 16) (-3)
20. White Noise (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Elvis (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Aftersun (PR: 25( +2)
24. Till (PR: 22) (-2)
25. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
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