2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Director)

This blogger’s first take on the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you didn’t catch my early glimpses for the acting races, you can find them linked at the bottom.

When I made my initial projections for the recently aired 95th Oscars back in April 2022, it correctly identified one of the eventual nominees: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. The eventual winners – the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once – were mentioned in Other Possibilities.

I’ll have Best Picture up later this evening!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR

Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Air

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

Todd Haynes, May December

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Jeymes Samuel, The Book of Clarence

Oscar Predictions: Tetris

Tetris is not your typical blockbuster based on a video game, but instead a look behind the curtain at the iconic creation which burst onto the scene in the late 80s. Jon S. Baird (who previously made Stan & Ollie) directs Taron Egerton as the Dutch inventor who must face off with Soviets in the Cold War era to bring it to the masses. Costars include Toby Jones, Nikita Yefremov, Roger Allam, and Anthony Boyle.

Apple TV begins airing this on March 31st after it premiered at South by Southwest. It would seem that a corresponding theatrical output is not occurring. That would mean game over for its Oscar prospects from the get-go. This makes sense given the 81% Rotten Tomatoes is solid though most reviews aren’t outright raves. The streamer is far more likely to concentrate on the upcoming Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon (and potentially others) anyway.

Even without the ineligibility factor, Tetris doesn’t seem to have the pieces put together for a legit campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

**Blogger’s Note – shortly after posting, I was informed that this will have a limited L.A. theatrical run and is likely therefore eligible for consideration. It doesn’t change my underlying thoughts on the viability.

Best Picture 2019: The Final Five

We have reached 2019 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

In 2019, there were nine films vying for the prize. We know one thing for sure. Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite is in since it made history and became the first non-English language title to take Best Picture. It had a big night as it also won Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film.

There’s 8 others to consider. Only half make cut. Let’s get into it!

Ford v Ferrari

James Mangold’s 1960s set sports drama starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale had four total nominations and won 2 of them (Sound Editing and Film Editing). It wasn’t as fortunate in Picture or Sound Mixing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. I say this knowing the Film Editing victor usually lands a BP nod (though not the case with 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum and 2011’s The Girl with Dragon Tattoo). However, Ford achieved the least number of overall mentions among the 9 contenders and missed key races including Director, any acting derbies, and screenplay.

The Irishman

Martin Scorsese’s return to the Mob genre was Netflix’s highest profile Oscar player yet. It earned ten overall nods including for Scorsese, two Supporting Actor bids for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, and Adapted Screenplay. Going 0 for 10, Robert De Niro was a somewhat surprising omission for his lead work.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Despite the lack of wins, the sheer number of inclusions indicate the legendary filmmaker and cast would vie for the top award.

Jojo Rabbit

Taika Waititi’s unique take on WWII was up for 6 races including Scarlett Johansson for Supporting Actress and Film Editing. The sole victory (a major one) was Adapted Screenplay where it beat out three other BP nominees.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but this was easily the hardest to leave off. The Screenplay win suggests it certainly could have. A miss in Director was a deciding factor and the fact that I couldn’t omit any of the final five I ended up going with.

Joker

Warner Bros. had unexpected bragging rights as this Scorsese inspired take on the DC Comics villain had the best haul with 11 nods. This includes Todd Phillips in Director and key precursors like Editing and Adapted Screenplay. The two wins came courtesy of Joaquin Phoenix in the title role and in Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Usually the leader of the pack does and this popped up in categories it originally wasn’t anticipated to.

Little Women

Greta Gerwig’s acclaimed version of the classic Louisa May Alcott novel was also up for Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Supporting Actress (Florence Pugh), Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Costume Design (which was its only victory).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Simple math here. If I didn’t put Jojo in (which won Adapted Screenplay), I can’t justify vaulting this over it.

Marriage Story

Just like Little Women, Noah Baumbach’s drama was up for six and managed one. The win was Laura Dern (who was also in Women) in Supporting Actress while it also vied for Actor (Adam Driver), Actress (double nominee Scarlett Johansson), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Just like Little Women – no. Like Women, not making the Director race and not winning screenplay make this a fairly easy forecast.

1917

The World War I epic from Sam Mendes boasted 10 nominations with 3 statues for Sound Mixing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects. The Editing miss was obvious since the picture famously used few cuts.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. In fact, this was likely the runner-up to Parasite. It went into the evening as the favorite for BP and Director until Joon-ho’s film made its history.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Quentin Tarantino’s ninth feature was slotted for 10 categories including QT for director, Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor, and Original Screenplay where its two-time winning scribe lost to Joon-ho. The two victories were Brad Pitt in Supporting Actor and Production Design.

Does It the Final Five?

Yes though I admit the Editing snub had me questioning it. An argument can be made for Jojo, but I ultimately think Quentin and company get in.

So that means your 2019 Final Five is:

The Irishman

Joker

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

I will note that this quintet mirrors the individuals who were up for Best Director. That is typically not a 5/5 match. It happened occasionally when there were 5 BP nominees and I feel this is a time where it would’ve.

2020 will be up soon and if you missed the posts covering 2009-18, they can be accessed here:

The NBR Flies With Maverick

The National Board of Review, a group of cinephiles out of New York City, bestows its best of every year in early December. Their selections certainly don’t forecast who and what the Academy will eventually name. They do, like many critics organizations, give us potential hints as to who and what’s hot and not as Oscar voters ready their ballots.

For 2022, the NBR went with the year’s most popular picture in Top Gun: Maverick. Named Best Film, Maverick is expected to land a spot in the Academy’s BP ten. Picking it to win is risky business. Of the last 10 NBR victors, only one went on to win BP at the big dance – 2018’s Green Book (and that was a surprise). The last three recipients were The Irishman, Da 5 Bloods, and Licorice Pizza. On the other hand, one three NBR winning films in the 21st century didn’t score an Oscar BP nomination: 2000’s Quills, 2014’s A Most Violent Year, and the aforementioned Bloods from 2020.

The directing prize went to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. He’s ranked #1 in my Oscar picks and has been for quite some time. If he takes Oscar, he’d be the first NBR victor to do so since 2006 when Martin Scorsese won for The Departed.

The matches don’t improve much in the acting derbies. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) was crowned Best Actress. Three of the past 10 winners achieved Oscar glory: Julianne Moore for Still Alice, Brie Larson in Room, and Renee Zellweger as Judy. On a side note, a Cate Blanchett TĆ r prize here would’ve been the easy bet. That picture was ignored by NBR even in their selections for the 10 greatest films not named Top Gun: Maverick (more on that below).

Colin Farrell nabbed another lead Actor honor for The Banshees of Inisherin. Two of the previous 10 NBR gentleman made a podium trip at the Oscars: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea and Will Smith last year for King Richard (remember that?). Farrell is emerging as a major threat as is Austin Butler for Elvis (which received no love from this board). Along with Brendan Fraser in The Whale (who needs some critic groups love awfully soon), they make up a three-way tussle for Best Actor.

Janelle Monae is your Best Supporting Actress as her stock is rising. Yet only two of the past 10 winners match Oscar with Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk and Youn Yuh-Jung for Minari. Brad Pitt is the only Supporting Actor NBR/Academy match of the last decade for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Brendan Gleeson in The Bansees of Inisherin will try and join that small club as he emerged over frontrunner Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere.

Original Screenplay went to Banshees while All Quiet on the Western Front was a surprise recipient in Adapted Screenplay over Women Talking (which is widely favored to catch the Academy’s attention).

Other pics making their mark today were Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Animated Feature, Close in International Feature Film, and Sr. for Documentary Feature. All are expected to vie for consideration at the Oscars.

Finally, the NBR chooses 10 additional features on their best of list. This year they were Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, Till, The Woman King, and Women Talking. In addition to TĆ”r and Elvis – you also won’t find The Whale or Babylon or Triangle of Sadness among the picks. Same with She Said and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.

From 2019-2021, the winning pictures and ten other NBR picks equated to between 5-7 of the Academy’s BP contenders. Right now, I have six of these 2022 films in my Oscar 10: Maverick, Avatar, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, and Women Talking. That corresponds to what usually occurs between NBR and Oscar.

All in all, a good day for Maverick and company. That said – if you think it is now cruising to Best Picture, history suggests otherwise.

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Best Director Race

Best Director is on deck for my closeup looks at six major categories at the Oscars. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can find them here:

As I have with the other competitions, let’s see how accurate my estimates were from 2019-21 at the same early November time period. In 2019, I correctly had 4 of the 5 eventual directors: winner Bong Joon-ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), and Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Todd Phillips (Joker) was identified in Other Possibilities. 2020 was a trickier year due to COVID complications and I had 2 of the contenders rightly pegged: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (who won) and David Fincher for Mank. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) was in Other Possibilities while Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) and Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) were not yet in my top ten. Last year, I had 3 of 5 with the victorious Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), and Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza). Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) was in Other Possibilities and I didn’t have Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) yet in the mix.

I don’t have Spielberg down as an Other Possibility in 2022. This time around, he could be in line for his third Best Director statue behind 1993’s Schindler’s List and 1998’s Saving Private Ryan. It would mark his ninth overall nom. If he wins, he would become only the fourth filmmaker with three or more victories. John Ford has 4 while Frank Capra and William Wyler have 3.

The last four years have given us a nominee with an International Feature Film contender. In addition to Joon-ho in 2019 and Vinterberg and Hamaguchi the following years, Alfonso Cuaron took the prize in 2018 for Roma. There are two in 2022 that stand the best shot: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave). If you want to be brave and predict an out of nowhere selection (like Vinterberg kinda was in 2020), look to Lukas Dhont (Close) or Jerzy Skolimowski (EO). Maybe even Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Bardo though he faces a tough road due to mixed critical reception.

However, I’m not quite ready to elevate any of them to the forecasted quintet. Damien Chazelle’s Babylon will soon screen prior to its December bow. It has the looks of a contender and he’s in unless the buzz tells me differently in a few days.

I’m also feeling good about the Daniels (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Same goes for Sarah Polley (Women Talking). Both appear to be surefire BP selections and would mark the Academy’s first mentions for them in this race.

As for the fifth spot, there’s plenty of names beyond the aforementioned international auteurs. Todd Field for TĆ”r tops that list with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) not far behind. If Avatar: The Way of Water approaches the reception that the original received, James Cameron could enter the conversation.

If She Said or The Whale pick up even more steam in BP, I wouldn’t discount Maria Schrader or Darren Aronofsky respectively. That same logic applies to Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. I’ve had him in my five previously.

Perhaps the voters will honor the maker of the year’s biggest blockbuster with Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick. The more likely path is a BP nom and a few tech inclusions.

This race can and will evolve over the next couple of months. Here’s the state of the race right now:

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, TƔr (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Picture is up next, folks! Stay tuned…

Emancipation Enters the Oscar Race

In an alternative universe,Ā EmancipationĀ might be in my top 10 predicted Best Picture nominees. I could potentially be discussing Will Smith’s chances of being the first back to back acting winner since Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.

I didn’t think this alternative universe could be a potential reality in the 2022 awards season. In 2021, Apple TV beat Netflix and others to the punch asĀ CODAĀ was the inaugural streaming Best Picture winner. For a while, Martin Scorsese’sĀ Killers of the Flower MoonĀ appeared to be Apple’s best shot at making it two years in a row. That’s until it got pushed to 2023. In recent weeks, there was speculation that Ridley Scott’sĀ NapoleonĀ starring Joaquin Phoenix could make a jump to 2022. It wasn’t to be.

This has left Apple without a legit across the board Oscar player… untilĀ maybeĀ today. Why? The streamer announced that Antoine Fuqua’s historical dramaĀ EmancipationĀ will hit theaters for an awards qualifying run on December 2nd and then be available for home viewing on December 9th. The trailer was unveiled this morning.

And in case you’re still wondering why I’m skeptical… two words: The Slap. Yes, the slap heard around the globe when Chris Rock presented Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards and cracked a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith. And, of course, slap provider Will Smith giving his acceptance speech a few minutes later when he was victorious in Best Actor forĀ King Richard.

Since then, many of Smith’s planned projects have entered turnaround status.Ā Emancipation,Ā in which he plays a slave who joins the Union Army, was already filmed. And Apple made the surprising decision in early October to get it out two months later. This surely means Smith will be subject to interviews where he’ll address The Slap sooner than later.

So… the obvious question: can Smith get nominated? Can the film itself do so in other categories? Even though the star resigned from the Academy in the aftermath of the incident, he can still be nominated (and he can attend if invited by other members). So while the short answer is yes… the real answer is more complicated.

My gut is that Smith’s work inĀ EmancipationĀ would have to be undeniably awards worthy to make the final five. Even that could be a stretch. Time heals controversies and not much time has passed. As for the film itself, it could surely garner nods from Best Picture on down (I’m curious if Ben Foster gets any chatter for Supporting Actor). Yet it starts off at a unique disadvantage.

We won’t know until reviews start surfacing and that could be a few weeks. I can only assume Apple will give this a major push for consideration. It’s a campaign that is an uphill battle for reasons unfathomable just a few months ago.

Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

My blog series continues with speculation on what a Best Picture lineup of five would have looked like in the years since the format changed to up to 10 nominees. That began in 2009 and if you missed my previous posts covering 2009-2012, you can peruse them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

In our year of 2013, the magic number was 9 contenders. We know that Steve McQueen’sĀ 12 Years a SlaveĀ would have been included since a win in Best Picture was among its nine nominations. It also took Director, Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o), and Adapted Screenplay. So what else would’ve made the cut? Let’s speculate, shall we?

American Hustle

David O. Russell’s disco era crime pic tied for the most nods with 10, including Director and four acting mentions for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence. Despite the double digit nomination haul, it ended the night with zero victories.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Even with the goose egg, the sheer number of nods indicates making the quintet.

Captain Phillips

With Tom Hanks as the title character in the true life Somali pirate drama, Paul Greengrass’s tense thriller scored 6 overall nods. In addition to Pic, Supporting Actor (Barkhad Abdi), Adapted Screenplay, both Sound races, and Film Editing were in the mix. LikeĀ Hustle,Ā there were no wins.

Does It Make theĀ Final Five?

No. With no nods for directing or Hanks’s performance (which was a huge snub), I think this would’ve been on the outside looking in.

Dallas Buyers Club

While our first two selections went 0 for 16, this mid 80s set AIDS drama won half of its six nominations – Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), and Makeup and Hairstyling. The other two mentions were Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but it’s a close call. The three gold statues put it over the edge in my opinion despite not landing a directing slot for the late Jean-Marc Vallee.

Gravity

Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller tiedĀ HustleĀ with 10 nominations. UnlikeĀ Hustle,Ā it won 70% of its possibilities: Director, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. Sandra Bullock was nominated for Best Actress and it got a Production Design nod.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Even without a screenplay nom, this would’ve been in contention and it was probably the runner-up toĀ SlaveĀ considering the Cuaron win.

Her

Spike Jonze’s quirky romantic drama won Original Screenplay and was up for Score, Song, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No because it missed out on key precursors including Director, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Film Editing.

Nebraska

Alexander Payne’s B&W road dramedy nabbed five other nods for direction, Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. It didn’t emerge victorious for any.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I struggled with this one (it’s sixth). Film Editing is often the biggest indicator of a BP nom and that’s part of the reason I gaveĀ Dallas Buyers ClubĀ a slight edge.

Philomena

Judi Dench received a Best Actress nod for this adoption drama. Adapted Screenplay and Score were the other mentions as its four overall are the least of the BP hopefuls.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. The Academy loves Dench. However, that wouldn’t have been enough for this to survive a cut to five.

The Wolf of Wall Street

Martin Scorsese’s raunchy tale of 80s excess landed Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill acting spots. The direction and Adapted Screenplay were up as well. It won none.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes though I will say I don’t think it’s automatic.Ā Wolf‘s complete lack of nominations in the tech categories is a bit of a surprise, but ultimately I don’t think the voters would’ve ignored this.

So my quintet for 2013 would be:

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

The Wolf of Wall Street

2014 is up next and will be on the blog soon!

2022 Oscar Predictions: July 31st Edition

As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.

Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’sĀ Killers of the Flower MoonĀ will not come out until 2023.Ā VarietyĀ andĀ DeadlineĀ essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to includeĀ KillersĀ in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. IfĀ KillersĀ ends up back on the 2022 calendar,Ā VarietyĀ andĀ DeadlineĀ have some explaining to do…

Another development is that Ron Howard’sĀ Thirteen LivesĀ was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.

TheĀ KillersĀ announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winnerĀ Triangle ofĀ SadnessĀ replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice openerĀ White NoiseĀ replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room forĀ Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally,Ā She SaidĀ rises in Adapted Screenplay.

That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’sĀ BabylonĀ ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to goĀ allĀ the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’sĀ The Departed.Ā That was 16 years ago.Ā BabylonĀ could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’sĀ The FabelmansĀ (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.

I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes.Ā The SonĀ is now first in Adapted Screenplay sinceĀ KillersĀ has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano fromĀ The Fabelmans.Ā 

Another alteration –Ā Empire of LightĀ falls out of Original Screenplay withĀ The Banshees of InisherinĀ in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.

That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!

Best PictureĀ 

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā The FabelmansĀ (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2.Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 1) (-1)

3.Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 4) (+1)

4.Ā BardoĀ (PR: 6) (+2)

5.Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 5) (E)

6.Ā The SonĀ (PR: 7) (+1)

7.Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 8) (+1)

8.Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 9) (+1)

9.Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 10) (+1)

10.Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11.Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12.Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 12) (E)

13.Ā TarĀ (PR: 13) (E)

14.Ā Avatar: The Way of WaterĀ (PR: 14) (E)

15.Ā ElvisĀ (PR: 16) (+1)

16.Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 19) (+3)

17.Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 18) (+1)

18.Ā TheĀ Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 20) (+2)

19.Ā TillĀ (PR: 17) (-2)

20.Ā Bones and AllĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

21.Ā AmsterdamĀ (PR: 23) (+2)

22.Ā Black Panther: Wakanda ForeverĀ (PR: 24) (+2)

23.Ā The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: 25) (+2)

24.Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: 21) (-3)

25.Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower MoonĀ 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu,Ā BardoĀ (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Daniels,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sarah Polley, Women TalkingĀ (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:Ā 

6. Sam Mendes,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ruben Ostlund,Ā TriangleĀ of SadnessĀ (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Florian Zeller,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Cameron,Ā Avatar: The Way ofĀ WaterĀ (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Darren Aronofsky,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Park Chan-wook,Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Noah Baumbach,Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Todd Field,Ā TarĀ (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Hirokazu Kore-eda,Ā BrokerĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Maria Schrader,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Martin Scorsese,Ā Killers of the Flower Moon

Chinoye Chukwu,Ā Till

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cate Blanchett,Ā TarĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler,Ā TillĀ (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina King,Ā ShirleyĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ana de Armas,Ā BlondeĀ (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Viola Davis,Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Naomi Ackie,Ā I Wanna Dance with SomebodyĀ (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Carey Mulligan,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Chastain,Ā The Good NurseĀ (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Helen Mirren,Ā GoldaĀ (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Jennifer Lawrence,Ā CausewayĀ (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Florence Pugh,Ā Don’t WorryĀ DarlingĀ (PR: 14) (E)

15. Emma Corrin,Ā Lady Chatterley’s LoverĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frances McDormand,Ā Women TalkingĀ 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser,Ā TheĀ WhaleĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler,Ā ElvisĀ (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho,Ā BardoĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Adam Driver,Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 6) (+1)

OtherĀ Possibilities:

6. Song Kang-ho,Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Diego Calva,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colin Farrell,Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bill Nighy,Ā LivingĀ (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tom Cruise,Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Timothee Chalamet,Ā Bones and AllĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 12) (E)

13. Paul Mescal,Ā AftersunĀ (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Christian Bale,Ā The Pale Blue EyeĀ (PR: 14) (E)

15. Viggo Mortensen,Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Leonardo DiCaprio,Ā Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Vanessa Kirby,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Jessie Buckley,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Zoe Kazan,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Stephanie Hsu,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Griselda Sicillani,Ā BardoĀ (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Jean Smart,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sadie Sink,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 10) (E)

11. Patricia Clarkson,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12. Nina Hoss,Ā TarĀ (PR: 12) (E)

13. Dakota Johnson,Ā Cha Cha Real SmoothĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Angela Bassett,Ā Black Panther: WakandaĀ ForeverĀ (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Samantha Morton,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Gladstone,Ā Killers of the Flower Moon

Whoopi Goldberg,Ā TillĀ 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Paul Dano,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Brad Pitt,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Colin Firth,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Woody Harrelson,Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 8) (+3)

OtherĀ Possibilities:

6. Zen McGrath,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Brendan Gleeson,Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Ralph Fiennes,Ā The MenuĀ (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Michael Ward,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Seth Rogen,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Don Cheadle,Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Russell Crowe,Ā The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Anthony Hopkins,Ā Armageddon TimeĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tom Hanks,Ā ElvisĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons,Ā Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert De Niro,Ā Killers of the Flower Moon

Colin Farrell,Ā Thirteen LivesĀ 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2.Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3.Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4.Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5.Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:Ā 

6.Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 4) (-2)

7.Ā BardoĀ (PR: 6) (-1)

8.Ā TarĀ (PR: 7) (-1)

9.Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 9) (E)

10.Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 10) (E)

11.Ā The MenuĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12.Ā AmsterdamĀ (PR: 12) (E)

13.Ā BrosĀ (PR: 14) (+1)

14.Ā Don’t WorryĀ DarlingĀ (PR: 13) (-1)

15.Ā Cha Cha Real SmoothĀ (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā The SonĀ (PR: 2) (+1)

2.Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 3) (+1)

3.Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 4) (+1)

4.Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5.Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6.Ā Bones and AllĀ (PR: 13) (+7)

7.Ā TillĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8 .The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: 11) (+3)

9.Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 10) (+1)

10.Ā Glass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryĀ (PR: 12) (+2)

11.Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 9) (-2)

12.Ā The Good NurseĀ (PR: 14) (+2)

13.Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: 8) (-5)

14.Ā LivingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15.Ā BlondeĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

ElvisĀ 

2022 Oscar Predictions: July 24th Edition

The release schedule for 2022 is always shifting (though thankfully not as much as in 2020 and 2021). This week, there were reports that Netflix’sĀ RustinĀ will be pushed to 2023. While this isn’t 100% confirmed, it’s enough that I’ve moved it out of contention and that’s significant. I had it pegged for a Best Picture nomination as well as Actor (Colman Domingo) and Supporting Actress (Audra McDonald) in my post from 7 days ago.

The beneficiary ofĀ RustinĀ falling out of contention? None other thanĀ Top Gun: Maverick.Ā Let me be clear – I’mĀ veryĀ skeptical that it receives a nod in the biggest race of all. Yet it’s hard to ignore the potency of its box office supremacy over the summer. Oscar voters will know that audiences will root for its inclusion. And that could be enough to push it past the finish line.

In Actor,Ā Bardo‘s Daniel Gimenez Cacho replaces Domingo while Zoe Kazan (She Said) rises to the final five in Supporting Actress. There’s another change in Actress as I’m putting Cate Blanchett (Tar) in the mix over Regina King (Shirley). The latter is another Netflix effort where the release date seems uncertain. If they verify 2022 in the near future, she could (and probably would) get back in the mix.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā BabylonĀ (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2.Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3.Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4.Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5.Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 5) (E)

6.Ā BardoĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7.Ā TheĀ SonĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8.Ā Empire ofĀ LightĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9.Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 9) (E)

10.Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11.Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12.Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 14) (+2)

13.Ā TarĀ (PR: 13) (E)

14.Ā Avatar: The Way of WaterĀ (PR: 15) (+1)

15.Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 18) (+3)

16.Ā ElvisĀ (PR: 16) (E)

17.Ā TillĀ (PR: 21) (+4)

18.Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 19) (+1)

19.Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 22) (+3)

20.Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 20) (E)

21.Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

22.Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 17) (-5)

23.Ā AmsterdamĀ (PR: 23) (E)

24.Ā Black Panther: WakandaĀ ForeverĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

25.Ā The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

The Killer

Don’t WorryĀ DarlingĀ 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu,Ā BardoĀ (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8. Florian Zeller,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9. Darren Aronofsky,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 9) (E)

10. James Cameron,Ā Avatar: The Way of WaterĀ (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ruben Ostlund,Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12. Park Chan-wook,Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Noah Baumbach,Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Todd Field,Ā TarĀ (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Chinoye Chukwu,Ā TillĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hirokazu Kore-ada,Ā BrokerĀ 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler,Ā TillĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Cate Blanchett,Ā TarĀ (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina King,Ā ShirleyĀ (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Viola Davis,Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8. Naomi Ackie,Ā I Wanna Dance with SomebodyĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ana de Armas,Ā BlondeĀ (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Carey Mulligan,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helen Mirren,Ā GoldaĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frances McDormand,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 12) (E)

13. Jessica Chastain,Ā The Good NurseĀ (PR: 13) (E)

14. Florence Pugh,Ā Don’t Worry DarlingĀ (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jennifer Lawrence,Ā CausewayĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annette Bening,Ā NyadĀ 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Austin Butler,Ā ElvisĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Daniel Gimenez Cacho,Ā BardoĀ (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver,Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Song-Kang Ho,Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Diego Calva,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colin Farrell,Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bill Nighy,Ā LivingĀ (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Tom Cruise,Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12. Gabriel LaBelle,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Viggo Mortensen,Ā ThirteenĀ LivesĀ (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Christian Bale,Ā The Pale Blue EyeĀ (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Paul Mescal,Ā AftersunĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo,Ā RustinĀ 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vanessa Kirby,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Zoe Kazan,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:Ā 

6. Hong Chau,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stephanie Hsu,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jean Smart,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Sadie Sink,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Patricia Clarkson,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Nina Hoss,Ā TarĀ (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Griselda Sicillani,Ā BardoĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Whoopi Goldberg,Ā TillĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Angela Bassett,Ā BlackĀ Panther: Wakanda ForeverĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Audra McDonald,Ā Rustin

Dakota Johnson,Ā Cha Cha Real Smooth

Jodie Foster,Ā NyadĀ 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Dano,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jesse Plemons,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ke Huy Quan,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Brad Pitt,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Colin Firth,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Zen McGrath,Ā The SonĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Robert De Niro,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woody Harrelson,Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Ben Whishaw,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Michael Ward,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Brendan Gleeson,Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Ralph Fiennes,Ā The MenuĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Colin Farrell,Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Russell Crowe,Ā The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Glynn Turman,Ā RustinĀ 

Anthony Hopkins,Ā Armageddon TimeĀ 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2.Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3.Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4.Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5.Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:Ā 

6.Ā BardoĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7.Ā TarĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8.Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9.Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 11) (+2)

10.Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 10) (E)

11.Ā The MenuĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

12.Ā AmsterdamĀ (PR: 13) (+1)

13.Ā Don’t Worry DarlingĀ (PR: 14) (+1)

14.Ā BrosĀ (PR: 15) (+1)

15.Ā Cha Cha Real SmoothĀ (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

RustinĀ 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2.Ā The SonĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3.Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4.Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5.Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 5) (E)

OtherĀ Possibilities:Ā 

6.Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7.Ā TillĀ (PR: 8) (+1)

8.Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: 12) (+4)

9.Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 7) (-2)

10.Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 11) (+1)

11.Ā The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: 9) (-2)

12.Ā Glass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

13.Ā Bones and AllĀ (PR: 13) (E)

14.Ā The Good NurseĀ (PR: 10) (-4)

15.Ā ElvisĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Close

The Killer

2022 Oscar Predictions: July 17th Edition

For my mid-July Oscar predictions, the Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remain intact (with some ranking maneuvering). Same goes for the Screenplay races. However, there are some significant changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, I’ve moved Audra McDonald (Rustin) and Vanessa Kirby (The Son) in the final five while taking Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) out. For Supporting Actor, I’ve had Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) perched in #1 for many weeks. With this update, he drops all the way out of the top 5 with Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) now in first position. This moves Colin Firth (Empire of Light) into the predicted quintet.

As for other news, Taika Waititi’s sports picĀ Next Goal WinsĀ appears to have pushed to 2023 (it was originally slated for 202o) and that explains it dropping out of contention. And for those who haven’t caught the recently released trailers forĀ She SaidĀ andĀ Amsterdam, you can find them below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā BabylonĀ (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2.Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3.Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4.Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5.Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 5) (E)

6.Ā BardoĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7.Ā The SonĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8.Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 9) (+1)

9.Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 8) (-1)

10.Ā RustinĀ (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11.Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12.Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 13) (+1)

13.Ā TARĀ (PR: 14) (+1)

14.Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 12) (-2)

15.Ā Avatar: The Way of WaterĀ (PR: 15) (E)

16.Ā ElvisĀ (PR: 17) (+1)

17.Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 19) (+2)

18.Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 21) (+3)

19.Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 16) (-3)

20.Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 22) (+2)

21.Ā TillĀ (PR: 24) (+3)

22.Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 23) (+1)

23.Ā AmsterdamĀ (PR: 20) (-3)

24.Ā The KillerĀ (PR: 25) (+1)

25.Ā Don’t WorryĀ DarlingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Next Goal WinsĀ 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu,Ā BardoĀ (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8. Florian Zeller,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 10) (+2)

9.Ā Darren Aronofsky,Ā TheĀ WhaleĀ (PR: 8) (-1)

10. James Cameron,Ā Avatar: The Way of WaterĀ (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Ruben Ostlund,Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Noah Baumbach,Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hirokazu Kore-ada,Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Park Chan-wook,Ā Decision toĀ LeaveĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Todd Field,Ā TARĀ (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

George C. Wolfe,Ā RustinĀ 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Regina King,Ā ShirleyĀ (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler,Ā TillĀ (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cate Blanchett,Ā TARĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis,Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Naomi Ackie,Ā I Wanna Dance with SomebodyĀ (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Carey Mulligan,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ana de Armas,Ā BlondeĀ (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helen Mirren,Ā GoldaĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frances McDormand,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jessica Chastain,Ā The Good NurseĀ (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Annette Bening,Ā NyadĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Florence Pugh,Ā Don’t Worry DarlingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lesley Manville,Ā Mrs. Harris Goes toĀ ParisĀ 

Michelle Williams,Ā Showing Up

Jennifer Lawrence,Ā Red, White, and WaterĀ 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo,Ā RustinĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Austin Butler,Ā ElvisĀ (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver,Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho,Ā BardoĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8. Diego Calva,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 8) (E)

9. Song Kang-Ho,Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Colin Farrell,Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 10) (E)

11. Tom Cruise,Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Viggo Mortensen,Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bill Nighy,Ā LivingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Gabriel LaBelle,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 14) (E)

15. Christian Bale,Ā The Pale Blue EyeĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael Fassbender,Ā Next Goal Wins

Christian Bale,Ā AmsterdamĀ 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4. Audra McDonald,Ā RustinĀ (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Vanessa Kirby,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 12) (+7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Zoe Kazan,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Stephanie Hsu,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sadie Sink,Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Laura Dern,Ā The SonĀ (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Jean Smart,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Patricia Clarkson,Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Nina Hoss,Ā TARĀ (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dakota Johnson,Ā Cha Cha Real SmoothĀ (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jodie Foster,Ā NyadĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dolly De Leon,Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Dano,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ke Huy Quan,Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Brad Pitt,Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jesse Plemons,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Colin Firth,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro,Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 1) (-5)

7. Glynn Turman,Ā RustinĀ (PR: 7) (E)

8. Michael Ward,Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ben Whishaw,Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Woody Harrelson,Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Colin Farrell,Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 11) (E)

12. Seth Rogen,Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Brendan Gleeson,Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Russell Crowe,Ā The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Anthony Hopkins,Ā Armageddon TimeĀ (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington,Ā AmsterdamĀ 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā Everything Everywhere All at OnceĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2.Ā The FabelmansĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3.Ā BabylonĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4.Ā Empire of LightĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5.Ā Triangle of SadnessĀ (PR: 5) (E)

OtherĀ Possibilities:Ā 

6.Ā BardoĀ (PR: 7) (+1)

7.Ā TarĀ (PR: 10) (+3)

8.Ā The Banshees of InisherinĀ (PR: 6) (-2)

9.Ā RustinĀ (PR: 8) (-1)

10.Ā BrokerĀ (PR: 9) (-1)

11.Ā Decision to LeaveĀ (PR: 13) (+2)

12.Ā Cha Cha Real SmoothĀ (PR: 14) (+2)

13.Ā AmsterdamĀ (PR: 11) (-2)

14.Ā Don’t Worry DarlingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15.Ā BrosĀ (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

AftersunĀ 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1.Ā Killers of the Flower MoonĀ (PR: 1) (E)

2.Ā The SonĀ (PR: 2) (E)

3.Ā Women TalkingĀ (PR: 3) (E)

4.Ā The WhaleĀ (PR: 4) (E)

5.Ā White NoiseĀ (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6.Ā She SaidĀ (PR: 6) (E)

7.Ā Thirteen LivesĀ (PR: 8) (+1)

8.Ā TillĀ (PR: 9) (+1)

9.Ā The Greatest Beer Run EverĀ (PR: 10) (+1)

10.Ā The Good NurseĀ (PR: 11) (+1)

11.Ā Top Gun: MaverickĀ (PR: 15) (+4)

12.Ā The Woman KingĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

13.Ā Bones and AllĀ (PR: 13) (E)

14.Ā CloseĀ (PR: Not Ranked)

15.Ā The KillerĀ (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Next Goal Wins

The Pale Blue EyeĀ 

You can anticipate the next update around the first of August!