AFI Recap: Yes on Nope and Nope on Babylon

The American Film Institute (AFI) said yes to Nope and nope to The Whale and Babylon today as they named their top ten movies of 2022. Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror tale was perhaps the biggest surprise of the bunch.

The AFI list, in the previous decade, typically gives us seven of the eventual Best Picture contenders at the Oscars. In other words, they’re worth paying attention to. Coupled with Wednesday’s National Board of Review selections, there’s much to discuss. First, here’s the full AFI Ten:

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Nope

She Said

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

It’s key to remember that only U.S. made pictures are eligible. That means titles like All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, RRR, and The Banshees of Inisherin were not in the mix. However, Banshees received a Special Award similar to what eventual Academy hopefuls like Roma and Parasite nabbed.

I went 7 for 10 on my predictions. I correctly named Avatar, Elvis, Everything Everywhere…, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. I didn’t name Nope, She Said, and Tár. Instead I picked Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. For She Said and Tár especially, these were important nods considering they missed NBR (as did Nope).

Let’s start with the films that made the AFI and NBR lists. I’m counting Banshees with its AFI Special Award shout-out and there’s six more: Avatar: The Way of Water, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. This is a list you want to be on when it comes to an Oscar BP nom.

In the previous five years, ten pictures that made AFI and NBR were ignored by the Academy. They are 2017’s The Florida Project, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade (all from 2018), Knives Out and Richard Jewell from 2019, Da 5 Bloods and Soul in 2020, and last year’s The Tragedy of Macbeth.

If history is our guide, at least one of the seven from 2022 will miss out. Looking at the list, The Woman King is probably most vulnerable. That said, I’ve yet it to include it in my Oscar ten and the stock is rising.

In the past five years, only five pics have missed AFI and NBR (including Special Awards) and received a BP nod from the Academy. They are Darkest Hour from 2017, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice in 2018, The Father in 2020, and last year’s Drive My Car.

What about the movies that didn’t make AFI or NBR in 2022? That list includes Babylon, The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, All Quiet o the Western Front, and Decision to Leave. The last two weren’t eligible for AFI. Nevertheless this isn’t a list you want to be on though the outlook isn’t completely dire.

If history guides us again, 2 of the aforementioned 2022 titles could still get love from Oscar. Perhaps Monday’s Golden Globes nods will save some of them. There’s no doubt that Babylon and The Whale are looking shakier for Academy inclusion after this week. They need some attention from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

I’ll have my Golden Globe nominations recap up Monday and if you missed my predictions on them, you can find them here:

Updated Oscar predictions will be on the blog Tuesday!

AFI Top Ten Predictions 2022

The American Film Institute announces their top ten pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a good indication of half or more of the eventual BP contenders at the Oscars.

Keep in mind that American product only is eligible for this particular group. Since this list began in 2000, the Academy’s BP recipient has only missed here five times. Four of those occasions were due to the whole country of origin thing – 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King Speech, The Artist in 2011, and Parasite from 2019. The Departed in 2006 also didn’t make the cut. This means you shouldn’t expect Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Decision to Leave, or RRR to surface here.

So what will? The AFI ten and the Oscar ten had a solid match last year at 8. Tick, Tick… Boom! and The Tragedy of Macbeth were the AFI inclusions that didn’t make it with the Academy. They went with two features from outside the U.S. in Belfast and Drive My Car. In recent years, the match number is usually 6 or 7.

It’s not uncommon for AFI to pick blockbusters or animated fare that the Academy does not. Recent examples include Soul, Knives Out, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, Zootopia, Inside Out, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and Straight Outta Compton.

Let’s talk of the pics I have just missing the cut. It was hard to leave off Tár. If it fails to be named tomorrow, that would be two disappointing days in a row after it surprisingly missed the National Board of Review (NBR) list today. Same goes for She Said and The Whale while Till did make NBR. More popcorn flavored flicks like The Batman, Nope, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are all viable contenders.

We shall see if any of them get in. Avatar, Babylon, Elvis, Glass Onion, Pinocchio, and The Woman King all feel like pics that should make it here if they have any hope of making the Academy’s cut. It is rare for the Oscars to nominate a more mainstream title that AFI doesn’t.

I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with commentary and how I did!

AFI Top Predictions

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

The NBR Flies With Maverick

The National Board of Review, a group of cinephiles out of New York City, bestows its best of every year in early December. Their selections certainly don’t forecast who and what the Academy will eventually name. They do, like many critics organizations, give us potential hints as to who and what’s hot and not as Oscar voters ready their ballots.

For 2022, the NBR went with the year’s most popular picture in Top Gun: Maverick. Named Best Film, Maverick is expected to land a spot in the Academy’s BP ten. Picking it to win is risky business. Of the last 10 NBR victors, only one went on to win BP at the big dance – 2018’s Green Book (and that was a surprise). The last three recipients were The Irishman, Da 5 Bloods, and Licorice Pizza. On the other hand, one three NBR winning films in the 21st century didn’t score an Oscar BP nomination: 2000’s Quills, 2014’s A Most Violent Year, and the aforementioned Bloods from 2020.

The directing prize went to Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. He’s ranked #1 in my Oscar picks and has been for quite some time. If he takes Oscar, he’d be the first NBR victor to do so since 2006 when Martin Scorsese won for The Departed.

The matches don’t improve much in the acting derbies. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) was crowned Best Actress. Three of the past 10 winners achieved Oscar glory: Julianne Moore for Still Alice, Brie Larson in Room, and Renee Zellweger as Judy. On a side note, a Cate Blanchett Tàr prize here would’ve been the easy bet. That picture was ignored by NBR even in their selections for the 10 greatest films not named Top Gun: Maverick (more on that below).

Colin Farrell nabbed another lead Actor honor for The Banshees of Inisherin. Two of the previous 10 NBR gentleman made a podium trip at the Oscars: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea and Will Smith last year for King Richard (remember that?). Farrell is emerging as a major threat as is Austin Butler for Elvis (which received no love from this board). Along with Brendan Fraser in The Whale (who needs some critic groups love awfully soon), they make up a three-way tussle for Best Actor.

Janelle Monae is your Best Supporting Actress as her stock is rising. Yet only two of the past 10 winners match Oscar with Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk and Youn Yuh-Jung for Minari. Brad Pitt is the only Supporting Actor NBR/Academy match of the last decade for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Brendan Gleeson in The Bansees of Inisherin will try and join that small club as he emerged over frontrunner Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere.

Original Screenplay went to Banshees while All Quiet on the Western Front was a surprise recipient in Adapted Screenplay over Women Talking (which is widely favored to catch the Academy’s attention).

Other pics making their mark today were Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Animated Feature, Close in International Feature Film, and Sr. for Documentary Feature. All are expected to vie for consideration at the Oscars.

Finally, the NBR chooses 10 additional features on their best of list. This year they were Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, RRR, Till, The Woman King, and Women Talking. In addition to Tár and Elvis – you also won’t find The Whale or Babylon or Triangle of Sadness among the picks. Same with She Said and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.

From 2019-2021, the winning pictures and ten other NBR picks equated to between 5-7 of the Academy’s BP contenders. Right now, I have six of these 2022 films in my Oscar 10: Maverick, Avatar, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, and Women Talking. That corresponds to what usually occurs between NBR and Oscar.

All in all, a good day for Maverick and company. That said – if you think it is now cruising to Best Picture, history suggests otherwise.

2022 Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

After a couple years of major controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s big shindig is back on your television screens with the 80th Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony honoring the year’s best in film and TV returns to NBC on January 10th and the nominations are out on Monday, December 12th.

Readers of my blog are aware that I update my Oscar predictions every week to two weeks. With the Globes, it’s just one shot. As an aside, I don’t forecast the small screen races.

There are 14 categories to consider. As you may recall, the Globes split Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture and the lead acting derbies. This is not the case with director or supporting. Furthermore, this ceremony has a sole Screenplay race while the Academy differentiates between original and adapted works.

Let’s get to it! For each competition, I’m also giving you my alternate. On Monday, I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts on the nominations and how I performed.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The Menu

Alternate: Triangle of Sadness

Best Director

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Alternate: Todd Field, Tár

Best Actress – Drama

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Best Actor – Drama

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

Alternate: Hugh Jackman, The Son

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

Keke Palmer, Nope

Margot Robbie, Babylon

Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

Diego Calva, Babylon

Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto

Alternate: Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Supporting Actress

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Claire Foy, Women Talking

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks, Elvis

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Best Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Women Talking

Alternate: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Animated Motion Picture

The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Alternate: My Father’s Dragon

Best Foreign Language Motion Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Bardo

Decision to Leave

RRR

Alternate: Saint Omer

Best Original Score

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Women Talking

Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Song

“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red

Alternate: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing

And that means I’m projecting the following number of mentions for these pictures:

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

5 Nominations

Babylon, Women Talking

4 Nominations

Elvis

3 Nominations

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Menu, Tár

2 Nominations

RRR, Turning Red, The Whale

1 Nomination

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, A Man Called Otto, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Till, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.

While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.

That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.

Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)

12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)

7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)

10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Smith, Emancipation

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)

10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Menu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (E)

9. Strange World (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joyland (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. Descendant (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sr. (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Retrograde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flight Home

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emancipation

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elvis (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. X (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

She Said

White Noise

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Stand Up” from Till

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)

8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:

11 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

10 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Babylon, Women Talking

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Whale

4 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár

2 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King

December 2-4 Box Office Predictions

After a historically weak Thanksgiving frame that left moviegoers hungry for other options, the first weekend of December should be rather quiet at multiplexes as well. The lone wide release is Violent Night with David Harbour as a gun toting Santa. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Night, even though I have it falling under $10 million, should slide into the runner-up position behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The MCU sequel looks to four-peat and should have no trouble doing so. A low to mid 50s drop would put it over $20 million. It’s likely to be #1 for five weekends until Avatar: The Way of Water arrives on December 16th.

After a disastrous opening (more on that below), Strange World should fall to third. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, the Disney animated flop could experience a plummet in the mid to high 50s. Who knows? Maybe even higher.

The four and five spots could be close between the second and third frames of Devotion and The Menu. Both should see dips in the mid 40s.

Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

5. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)

The Turkey Day holiday didn’t bring in the masses as the weekend fell under $100 million. That’s despite plenty of new releases for crowds to chew on.

Strangely enough, the biggest winner belonged to a streamer. Netflix doesn’t officially report numbers. They put Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, the acclaimed sequel to 2019’s blockbuster, on just under 700 screens. Word is out that it did approximately $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $13.3 million since the Wednesday start. That per theater average of over $13k is easily the best of the bunch. Onion is scheduled to leave its venues tomorrow before it hits Netflix on December 23rd.

Now back to the movies that do report official tallies. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever easily stayed atop the charts with $45.5 million, besting my $37.9 million prediction in weekend #3. The 17-day total is $367 million.

The story of the holiday was the dismal Strange World performance. The Mouse Factory had a disappointing result over the summer with Lightyear. This made it look like a phenomenon. World took in an embarrassing $12.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.8 million in the five-day. I said it would manage $19.3 million and $26.7 million, respectively. Simply put, Disney animated efforts aren’t supposed to do those anemic figures.

I suppose technically Glass Onion was third, so the war saga Devotion was fourth. Despite mostly decent reviews, it was a flop considering the reported $90 million budget. The Friday to Sunday take was $5.9 million with $9 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. I went higher with $7.2 million and $10.7 million.

The Menu rounded out the top five at $5.4 million (I said $6.4 million) to bring the two-week gross to $18 million.

Black Adam was sixth with $3.2 million, on target with my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $162 million.

Steven Spielberg’s awards hopeful The Fabelmans was on 638 screens and was seventh with $2.2 million ($3.1 million for the five-day). That’s under my guesstimates of $2.8 million and $4.1 million. While that’s easily the second best average of the newbies (after Onion), it’s still not too impressive. It will hope to develop legs during awards season.

The cannibalistic romance Bones and All wasn’t a recipe for success with an 8th place showing. The $2.2 million and $3.6 million three and five day earnings couldn’t match my $3.5 and $5.3 million projections.

Ticket to Paradise was ninth with $1.8 million (I went with $2.3 million) as the rom com is up to $65 million.

Fathom Event The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 was 10th as it dove 81% to $1.5 million. I was more giving at $2.4 million. In ten days, it’s made $13 million.

Finally, She Said was 11th after its poor premiere last weekend. With $1.1 million (I said $1.6 million), it’s at a lowly $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping audiences mix a trip to the multiplex in their holiday plans. We have a slew of new releases, but it should be a three-week old leftover topping the Turkey weekend charts. Disney’s animated Strange World, aerial adventure Devotion, cannibalistic romance Bones and All, and Steven Spielberg’s coming-of-age awards hopeful The Fabelmans all debut or expand. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Let’s begin with a title you don’t see. Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is the eagerly awaited and well-reviewed follow-up to Knives Out, which opened over the same holiday three years ago. Netflix is the distributor and it will be before our streaming eyes for Christmas. Onion is hitting approximately 600 venues for a sneak preview from Wednesday to Sunday. It is not expected that Netflix will report its financials. That’s why you won’t find it in the top 10. If they do end up deciding to do so, I imagine it’ll do quite well (and be either third or fourth).

Back to movies where we expect box office grosses! Strange World is the Mouse Factory’s latest animated offering to be unveiled over Thanksgiving. Yet the marketing campaign has been weak. My high teens three-day and mid 20s five-day is very subpar for the studio. On the bright side, they’ll certainly have numbers 1-2 as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever should three-peat with a drop in the low 40s range.

Devotion could over perform if enough older moviegoers check in. I have it settling for a so-so third place in the high single digits for the traditional frame and low double digits for the Wednesday to Sunday portion.

The Menu should be fourth after an appetizing start (more on that below). I think it’ll only fall in the high 20s or low 30s for the sophomore outing. Bones and All could round out the top five. Its gory subject matter could prevent crowds from perusing its gruesome menu.

Spielberg’s The Fabelmans is out on just 600 screens. That limits the potential and I have a gut feeling it may fall short of expectations anyway. I have it pegged for 7th place as it hopes that Oscar buzz improves its earnings in later weekends.

Here’s how I envision the top 10 looking with 3 and 5 day estimates for the newcomers:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $37.9 million

2. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Bones and All

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

7. The Fabelmans

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

9. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $2.3 million

10. She Said

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (November 18-20)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever didn’t quite drop as far as MCU predecessors Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness or Thor: Love and Thunder, but it was still a steep decline. The sequel to 2018’s phenomenon slid 63% in weekend 2 with $66.4 million, under my $70.3 million projection. The ten-day tally is $287 million.

The Menu was the rare pic for the grown-ups that performed admirably. The culinary satire was runner-up with $9 million, a bit ahead of my $8.2 million prediction. Look for it for to hold well over Thanksgiving.

The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 had its core audience believing as the Fathom Events experience was third with $8.7 million (topping my $7.5 million estimate). Last December, Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers had a 71% plummet in its second weekend. Expect similar results here.

Black Adam was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.3 million) as the superhero pic is up to $157 million after four weeks.

Ticket to Paradise rounded out the top five at $3.1 million, below my $4.1 million prediction. The rom com has grossed $61 million.

Finally, She Said was a dud. Focused on the journalistic journey to expose Harvey Weinstein, it was a quiet sixth at $2.2 million. I went with $3.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a Happy Thanksgiving!!

2022 Oscar Predictions: November 20th Edition

Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).

This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.

Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.

There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.

In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).

There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jean Smart, Babylon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)

9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Broker

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)

4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)

10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. EO (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Klondike

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)

8. X (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Thousand Years of Longing

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)

8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Bardo

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)

7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)

9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Fabelmans

9 Nominations

Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking

6 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale

4 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár

3 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King

Oscar Predictions – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hopes to land the biggest opening of 2022 when it debuts this weekend. Disney would also love to see the MCU sequel to 2018’s cultural phenomenon achieve the awards love that its predecessor got. It’s not out of the question that it could.

The review embargo is up today and the Rotten Tomatoes meter is an impressive 90% (under part 1’s 96%). Critics are praising the film’s treatment of the loss of its star Chadwick Boseman in 2020. There is some griping about it being overlong. Few reviews are saying it surpasses the original in terms of quality.

The first Panther was nominated for 7 Academy Awards including Best Picture. Still the only superhero pic to make the BP cut, it took 3 of 7 (Score, Production Design, Costume Design). The other nods were Original Song (“All the Stars” from Kendrick Lamar) and Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (these categories have since been combined).

All 3 races where it won four years ago could pop up this time around. Production Design and Costume Design seem like givens. Sound appears a fairly safe bet. Same with Original Song as Rihanna’s closing credits ballad “Lift Me Up” is a threat to win. Ironically, Mr. Lamar lost in 2018 to Lady Gaga and “Shallow”. Gaga could strike again with “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick.

Panther did miss Visual Effects four years back and there were grumbles about the quality. The general consensus is that Wakanda‘s effects are a step up. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to make the VE quintet. However, I do think it has the best shot of the MCU’s 2022 slate (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder are the others).

As for performances, I could see Angela Bassett nabbing some ink. Ultimately I don’t see a second nom materializing nearly 30 years after her first one for What’s Love Got to Do with It.

Now the major question – can Wakanda Forever get a BP nomination? Short answer is yes. Longer answer is more complicated. With Maverick, there’s already one sequel that looks pretty safe. We still have Avatar: The Way of Water and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery waiting in the wings. I think it’s logical to say we won’t see four sequels in BP. Three seems like a stretch. While I wouldn’t discount Wakanda in the big race, I believe the more feasible scenario is tech nods and possibly 5 to even 7 of them. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2022 Oscar Predictions: November 6th Edition

Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:

The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.

There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Babylon

4. Women Talking

5. The Banshees of Inisherin

6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. Tár

8. The Whale

9. Triangle of Sadness

10. She Said

Other Possibilities:

11. All Quiet on the Western Front

12. Decision to Leave

13. Avatar: The Way of Water

14. Elvis

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

5. Todd Field, Tár

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

9. Adam Driver, White Noise

10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

8. Nina Hoss, Tár

9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. Jean Smart, Babylon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon

8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Armageddon Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Son

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)

4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)

8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)

9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aftershock

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. X (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“On My Way” from Marry Me

“At the Automat” from The Automat

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking

7 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

6 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

4 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said

2 Nominations

Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild