What are the awards possibilities for Lee Chanh-dong’s Possible Love now that it has premiered in Venice? The South Korean drama is the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2018’s Burning which was selected by its nation as their International Feature Film pick but failed to make the final cut. Jeon Do-yeon, Sul Kyung-gu, Zo In-sung, and Cho Yeo-jeong star with a stateside release for October 23rd and a Netflix streaming bow on November 6th.
Early reviews are impressive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a perhaps more notable 96% on Metacritic. Even with that rapturous reaction, one wonders how much room for international product could make up the 10 Best Picture nominees. Love will need to compete with The Black Ball (which has likely punched its ticket) and potentially the Cannes winner Fjord and All of a Sudden. It is a legit question whether Netflix will throw most of the campaigning behind Ball.
If Love were to take the top prize at Venice, chances in the big dance would immediately rise. However, as of now, I think International Feature Film is perhaps the sole nomination with an outside shot at Original Screenplay. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Na Hong-jin’s South Korean action sci-fi spectacle Hope looks to post impressive domestic grosses when it debuts September 9th. Reportedly the widest stateside release from its nation since 2019’s Parasite, the film originally premiered at Cannes before hitting South Korean venues in July. Hwang Jung-min, Zo In-sung, and Hoyean lead the cast along with Taylor Russell, Cameron Britton, Alicia Vikander, and Michael Fassbender.
Hope drew passionate reactions at Cannes with many reviews lauding the filmmaker’s directorial flourishes while being more critical of other aspects. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 68 Metacritic. Neon is handling North American distribution. With a Wednesday start, I could see its grosses being front-loaded and I think the five-day could approach $10 million.
Hope opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Arthur Harari’s psychological thriller The Unknown premiered at Cannes and is working its way through the festival circuit with stops planned in Toronto and New York. The director is best known for cowriting the Oscar winning screenplay for 2022’s Anatomy of a Fall. The body swapping tale stars Léa Seydoux with a supporting cast including Niels Schneider, Victoire Du Bois, and Radu Jude.
Reaction from the French Riviera was tempered in its praise. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with 62 on Metacritic. I don’t see this as an awards contender and any attention for Seydoux’s acting will probably be for Gentle Monster (another Cannes debut with mixed notices). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Danish auteur Nicolas Winding Refn generated critical acclaim early in his career for the Pusher trilogy, Bronson, and stateside breakthrough Drive with Ryan Gosling in 2011. His footprint with Academy voters, however, is limited to Drive‘s lone Sound Editing nom. The filmmaker’s follow-ups Only God Forgives and The Neon Demon received mixed to negative reactions.
His latest is Her Private Hell and it’s out this weekend in limited engagements. The sci-fi thriller stars Sophie Thatcher and Charles Melton with a supporting cast including Havana Rose Liu, Kristine Froseth, Shioli Kutsana, Aoi Yamada, Dougray Scott, Diego Calva, and Hidetoshi Nishijima.
Hell was met with far from a heavenly reception when it premiered at Cannes. With 48% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 44 Metacritic, it represents the weakest overall numbers for Refn. Any hopes of being an awards contender in any fashion evaporated immediately. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.
This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.
Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.
Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.
The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.
You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)
13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)
16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)
18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Werwulf
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Rami Malek, The Man I Love
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Debut
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)
11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)
12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
Jesse Plemons, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)
14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Long Winter
Best International Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)
3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)
4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Hexed
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Digger, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite,A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood
At last month’s Cannes Film Festival, Jordan Firstman’s feature length directorial debut Club Kid was a crowd favorite that sparked a bidding war won by A24. Firstman, known best for his Instagram posts, also penned the screenplay and stars as a party promoter unexpectedly forced to grow up. The dramedy’s supporting cast includes Cara Delevingne, Diego Calva, and Reggie Absolom.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 85 on Metacritic, A24 shelled out $17 million for distribution rights with a release expected in the fall. This could be a sleeper hit with the right promotion by the parties involved. I would expect an awards campaign with the likeliest shot being Original Screenplay and Best Picture and Firstman’s lead performance as longer shots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Léa Seydoux was working double duty at the Cannes Film Festival this year with The Unknown (look for that individual post shortly) and the family drama Gentle Monster. The co-production between Austria, France, Germany, and Sweden is the latest feature from Corsage director Marie Kreutzer. Jella Haase, Laurence Rupp, and Catherine Deneuve are among the supporting players.
Both pics for the headlining French actress have the commonality of Seydoux being praised with the film drawing more of a mixed reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is at 59% with the somewhat rare occurrence of Metacritic being higher at 70.
The only feasible awards play is Best Actress. Netflix has reportedly picked up distribution rights. They would need a robust campaign. I would also say Monster needs to pick up steam by playing fall fests and hoping the buzz gets stronger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.
Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.
Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.
The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)
15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)
18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hope
Paper Tiger
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Na Hong-jin, Hope
James Gray, Paper Tiger
Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)
13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning
Adam Driver, Paper Tiger
Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)
Lukas Dhont’s Coward has drawn attention at the Cannes Film Festival. The World War I drama/love story saw its two leads Valentin Campagne and Emmanuel Macchia share a Best Actor prize. This is Dhont’s follow-up to 2022’s Close which was an Oscar nominee for International Feature Film, falling short to All Quiet on the Western Front.
The 100% Rotten Tomatoes score is more balanced by the 68 on Metacritic. Coward‘s most effusive reviews, however, indicate it has a major shot at inclusion in IFF when Belgium likely makes it the submission. An elevation to Best Picture is a reach for the Mubi distributed title. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As a theater actor in the late 80s dying of the AIDS virus, Rami Malek headlines The Man I Love. It premiered at Cannes Film Festival and is the latest drama from Ira Sachs, maker of the Passages and Peter Hujar’s Day. Costars include Tom Sturridge, Luther Ford, Rebecca Hall, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach.
WME Independent is handling stateside distribution likely for this fall. Don’t be surprised if it pops up at future fests (especially New York’s). With 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic, critics are appreciative. However, the buzz doesn’t cause me to believe Best Picture is in play and that it’ll be Sachs’s first major awards breakout.
That is with one possible exception. Malek is drawing particular praise in some write-ups saying it’s a career best performance. Eight years ago, he took home Best Actor as Freddie Mercury in the blockbuster Bohemian Rhapsody. Since then, he’s yet to have a follow-up role that the Academy would notice. If WME can run a worthwhile campaign and if competition isn’t too steep, he could be viable for one of the five spots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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