Oscar Watch: The Personal History of David Copperfield

In the first of what will be several Oscar Watch posts from screenings at the Toronto Film Festival, we consider The Personal History of David Copperfield. Armando Iannucci serves as director for the Charles Dickens based satire with Dev Patel (Oscar nominee in 2016’s Lion) in the title role. Costars include Tilda Swinton, Hugh Laurie, Peter Capaldi, and Ben Whishaw.

The film is said to be a crowd pleaser. Iannucci has received Academy attention previously with his Original Screenplay for 2009’s In the Loop. Last year’s The Death of Stalin was considered a contender in Adapted Screenplay, though that nod never came. He’s best known stateside for creating HBO’s Veep.

While I don’t foresee Copperfield vying for Picture or any of the acting categories (though Patel is getting raves), Adapted Screenplay could be feasible. That’s with a rather large caveat. A number of the contenders in that race (The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Little Women) are still unseen. That’s changing shortly and we may have a better idea whether there’s any room for this soon. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The 2019 Oscar Season Cometh

As the summer season winds down, the movie industry and this blog’s attention will soon turn to the Oscar race. And if you think it’s too early to do that, consider that less than a month from now – an avalanche of Academy hopefuls will be unveiled at film festivals. Toronto, Venice, Telluride, and the New York festivals are on deck. The programmers behind those events have already released the names of many of the pictures premiering. Here are some of the pictures wishing for Oscar glory that are hitting the circuit:

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Tom Hanks is iconic children’s host Mr. Rogers in director Marielle Heller’s follow-up to last year’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which nabbed nods for Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant. Premiering at Toronto.

Ad Astra

James Gray has made multiple critical darlings, but has yet to pop up on the awards circuit radar screen. Could this sci fi drama with Brad Pitt and Tommy Lee Jones change that? Premiering at Venice.

An Officer and a Spy

It will need serious acclaim to overcome the baggage that comes from its maker Roman Polanski, but this historical thriller will attempt to do so in Venice.

Dolemite Is My Name

Prior to its anticipated Netflix launch, Craig Brewer’s biopic of comedian Rudy Ray Moore portrayed by legendary comic Eddie Murphy will bow at Toronto.

Ema

Pablo Larrain has had his pics No and Jackie attract awards nods and this Chilean drama hopes to follow suit. Premiering at Venice.

Ford v Ferrari

Matt Damon and Christian Bale star in James Mangold’s 1960s set tale of the flashy automotive industry. Premiering at Toronto.

Harriet

Cynthia Erica was a breakout in last year’s Widows. This year she has an Academy baity role as abolitionist Harriet Tubman in this historical epic from Kasi Lemmons. Premiering at Toronto.

Jojo Rabbit

This concoction from Taika Waititi is set during WWII with a dark comedic premise finding a young child with an imaginary friend who happens to be Hitler. The filmmaker himself plays Hitler. Scarlett Johansson and Sam Rockwell are among the cast.

Joker

Heath Ledger won a posthumous gold statue as the comic book villain in The Dark Knight. Joaquin Phoenix will attempt the same here. Premiering at Venice.

Judy

It’s been awhile since Renee Zellweger had a role receiving awards buzz. This biopic of Judy Garland could alter that. Premiering at Toronto.

Just Mercy

This drama about a falsely accused prisoner features Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Foxx, and Brie Larson. Premiering at Toronto.

Knives Out

Rian Johnson’s murder mystery has a sprawling cast of hopefuls including Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Jamie Lee Curtis, Toni Collette, and Michael Shannon. Premiering at Toronto.

Marriage Story

Noah Baumbach is a favorite of the critical community. This drama is headlined by Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver and hits Venice and other fests before its Netflix premiere.

The Goldfinch

Brooklyn director John Crowley adapts this drama based on a well-known 2013 novel. The cast includes Nicole Kidman and Oakes Fegley. Premiering at Toronto.

The Irishman

Rightly kicking off the New York Festival, Martin Scorsese directs this gangster saga starring Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci.

The Laundromat

Oscar winner Steven Soderbergh directs this dramatic thriller with Meryl Streep, Gary Oldman, and Antonio Banderas. Premiering at Venice.

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Lion nominee Dev Patel is the Charles Dickens character with a supporting cast including Tilda Swinton and Hugh Laurie. Premiering at Toronto.

The Two Popes

Jonathan Pryce is Pope Francis and Anthony Hopkins is Pope Benedict in this Netflix effort from director Fernando Meirelles. Premiering at Toronto.

Followers of this blog know that I’ll do Oscar Watch posts on each of these and many others as they screen in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

 

Hotel Mumbai Box Office Prediction

The true life action thriller Hotel Mumbai expands nationwide this weekend after its limited engagement over this past one. Recounting the 2008 Taj Mahal Palace Hotel terror attacks in India, the film marks the directorial debut of Anthony Maras. Dev Patel and Armie Hammer headline with costars including Anupam Kher and Jason Isaacs.

Mumbai was originally screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. Over the weekend, it managed a per theater average of over $20,000 on four screens.

That’s pretty decent, but that average should dip significantly as it’s scheduled to hit about 800 this weekend. The number is lower than other new wide releases like Unplanned and The Beach Bum. However, Mumbai could top the grosses of those titles – making it the biggest earning newcomer that isn’t named Dumbo.

Hotel Mumbai opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Dumbo prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/20/dumbo-box-office-prediction/

For my Unplanned prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/unplanned-box-office-prediction/

For my The Beach Bum prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/24/the-beach-bum-box-office-prediction/

Lion Movie Review

Garth Davis’s Lion, simply by the nature of its true origins, is both heartwarming and heart wrenching. Yet this doesn’t completely excuse some faults in the rendering of its tale. It tells the incredible story of Saroo (Sunny Pawar), a five-year old boy circa 1986 in a poor Indian village who becomes separated from his mother (Divian Ladwa) and older brother Guddu (Abhishek Bharate) one fateful evening.

The lost journey leads the child many miles away in Calcutta where Saroo is placed in an orphanage that is more like a prison. He doesn’t know the language of the new land he’s stranded in and knows his mother only as “mum”. One of the amazing realizations while viewing Lion is the remembrance of lack of technology in the 1980s that basically made it impossible for Saroo to be reunified with his family.

While Calcutta couldn’t be more of a foreign land to him, he’s soon taken to a much more faraway land in Australia when a kind couple (David Wenham and Nicole Kidman) adopt him. They treat him well and he’s a good kid, which isn’t the case with the troubled second child they adopt a year after Saroo.

The film eventually flashes forward to 20 years later and Saroo is now played by Dev Patel. In his late 20s, he still resides in Australia and is embarking on a career in hotel management. Lucy (Rooney Mara) is his American girlfriend. He’s still close with his adoptive parents (though not without some complications) and there’s still issues with his younger brother. The memories of his former life still consume him, however. A chance suggestion of Google Earth now having the ability to possibly locate his Indian village feeds his obsession.

Thus begins Saroo’s journey home. While he focuses myopically on finding his long-lost mother and brother, it has dramatic consequences with the current individuals in his life. Lion‘s plot is inherently fascinating. The screenplay by Luke Davies succeeds better in exploring some relationships than others. Saroo and Lucy’s is rather uninteresting, while his dynamic with Kidman provides some fine moments. Kidman’s mother is complicated and caring and the actress gives a touching performance. The same can be said for both versions of Saroo with Patel and Pawar.

When Lion reaches its conclusion with a moment we’ve been pining for, it is powerful and includes some unexpected revelations. An epilogue left me curious as to whether a documentary about the subjects may have been more potent. The answer is probably yes, but the picture does a competent and admirable job of telling a remarkable story.

*** (out of four)

Todd’s Updated 2016 Oscar Winner Predictions

Good Sunday all! 15 days from today, the Oscars will air and for the next three Sundays, I’ll be giving you my take on where I see each category standing. This means my winner prediction and each nominee listed in order of likelihood to take their prize.

My final predictions will post on Sunday, February 26 prior to the broadcast the next day. Let’s get to it, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight

3) Manchester by the Sea

4) Hidden Figures

5) Lion

6) Arrival

7) Hacksaw Ridge

8) Hell or High Water

9) Fences

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

3) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

4) Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

5) Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

2) Denzel Washington, Fences

3) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

4) Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

5) Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie

3) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

4) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

5) Ruth Negga, Loving

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

2) Dev Patel, Lion

3) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis, Fences

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

4) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight

2) Lion

3) Hidden Figures

4) Fences

5) Arrival

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) La La Land

3) Hell or High Water

4) The Lobster

5) 20th Century Women

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Zootopia

2) Kubo and the Two Strings

3) Moana

4) My Life as a Zucchini

5) The Red Turtle

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Salesman

2) Toni Erdmann

3) Land of Mine

4) A Man Called Ove

5) Tanna

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) I Am Not Your Negro

2) O.J.: Made in America

3) 13th

4) Fire at Sea

5) Life, Animated

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight

3) Arrival

4) Lion

5) Silence

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Jackie

2) La La Land

3) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4) Florence Foster Jenkins

5) Allied

BEST EDITING

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight

3) Arrival

4) Hacksaw Ridge

5) Hell or High Water

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1) Star Trek Beyond

2) Suicide Squad

3) A Man Called Ove

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land

2) Arrival

3) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4) Hail, Caesar!

5) Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land

2) Lion

3) Moonlight

4) Jackie

5) Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) “City of Stars” from La La Land

2) “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

3) “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls

4) “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land

5) “The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) La La Land

2) Hacksaw Ridge

3) Arrival

4) Deepwater Horizon

5) Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land

2) Hacksaw Ridge

3) Arrival

4) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

5) 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book

2) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3) Doctor Strange

4) Kubo and the Two Strings

5) Deepwater Horizon

Next Update will be Be Sunday!

2016 SAG Awards Predictions

The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: La La Land, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.

We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture 

Nominees: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Moonlight

Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if La La doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck

Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman

Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion)

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali

Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for Nocturnal Animals, isn’t present here.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis

Analysis: Another exact match with Oscar and I expect the same result – a win for Ms. Davis. Anything else would be a surprise.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange, Hacksaw Ridge, Jason Bourne, Nocturnal Animals

Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.

And there you have it! Happy watching tonight…

Todd’s 2016 Oscar Nominations Reaction

And… they’re out! After months of predictions and Oscar Watch posts, the 2016 Oscar nominations were announced this morning. Save for a couple of the technical categories, I must say I’m pretty pleased with my results! Per usual, there were a couple of surprising inclusions and omissions.

Let’s go race by race and see how I did, shall we? I am also including my commentary with each category and, for the first time (!) giving my first predictions on who and what will win…

Best Picture

Todd’s Performance: 9/9 (!)

Analysis: Since the Oscars went to the format where 5-10 Pictures can be nominated, 9 has mostly been the magic number and that held true this time around. There were no surprises here, as evidenced by my perfect score with the biggest race of all. The nominees are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

There are 3 films that stand a chance – La La, Manchester, and Moonlight. Yet there’s no denying that Damien Chazelle’s musical is the front runner, as it tied the record of 14 nominations today along with All About Eve and Titanic.  

Best Director

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: There were four easy picks to make and they were all honored: Chazelle (La La), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester), and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival). The fifth slot has consistently been the tricky one in recent weeks and I went with DGA nominee Garth Davis (Lion). The Academy instead brought previous winner Mel Gibson back into their good graces once again for Hacksaw Ridge.

Winner Prediction: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

This one is tougher than Picture. Barry Jenkins has emerged victorious in a number of precursors. Ultimately I’m forecasting that Picture and Director will match in honoring Chazelle’s return to the Hollywood musical.

Best Actor

Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)

Analysis: The five performers recognized today have been the most likely to get in for about a month, at least. They are: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw), Ryan Gosling (La La), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington (Fences). It played out as such.

Winner Prediction: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Actor is essentially a two man race between Affleck and Denzel, but the Manchester lead has racked up the lions share of other awards show and I feel Oscar will follow.

Best Actress

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Let’s get the four women I got right out of the way: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). No surprises there, but what was a bit startling was the omission of Amy Adams in Arrival. I had her ranked third out of five possibilities. Then – my sixth (Annette Bening, 20th Century Women) and seventh (Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train) place alternate picks didn’t make it in. That slot was filled with #8 – Ruth Negga in Loving. Not a huge shock as Actress has been packed for some time, but I thought Negga getting it would replace either Huppert or Streep. Not so.

Winner Prediction: Emma Stone, La La Land

I could see Stone, Portman, and maybe even Huppert taking the statue, but I’ll give Stone the gold.

Best Supporting Actor

Todd’s Performance 5/5 (!)

Analysis: I’ll give myself a hearty pat on the back for this as Supporting Actor was a tough race to wrap your head around this year. The nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals).

Winner Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Ali has won the bulk of precursors and this is the safe pick. That said, this is often a race where upsets happen and I could see Bridges, Patel, and possibly Shannon standing a chance.

Best Supporting Actress 

Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)

Analysis: I’ll give myself a softer pat on the back with this one as the five expected nominees held court. They are: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester).

Winner Prediction: Viola Davis, Fences

Of all the acting races, this is the easiest to project as Davis has been the front runner for months and remains so.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: As expected – Arrival, Fences (which some had on the fence), Lion, and Moonlight are in. I had Nocturnal Animals getting a nod, but the writers chose Hidden Figures instead.

Winner Prediction: Moonlight

The Barry Jenkins picture is a heavy, heavy favorite here.

Best Original Screenplay

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

Analysis: I correctly predicted Hell or High Water, La La Land, and Manchester by the Sea. I was a bit surprised to see Captain Fantastic left off, not as much so for dark horse pick I, Daniel Blake. In their place: The Lobster and 20th Century Women.

Winner Prediction: Manchester by the Sea

Kenneth Lonergan’s script is the favorite, but don’t discount a La La sweep factoring in here. Hell or High Water is a potential upset pick.

Best Animated Feature

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: I went with a bit of an upset pick with Pixar’s Finding Dory… and you usually don’t associate this category not including that studio’s work. Instead, The Red Turtle got in along with predicted nominees Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, and Zootopia. 

Winner Prediction: Zootopia

Disney is likely to see their blockbuster take the prize, though Kubo could be lurking.

Best Documentary Feature

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, and 13th were correct estimates while Fire at Sea nabbed a nod instead of Cameraperson.

Winner Prediction: I Am Not Your Negro

This is a tough one as O.J. and 13th also stand decent chances.

Best Foreign Language Film

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Tanna got in instead of predicted The King’s Choice. Other nominees: Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, and Toni Erdmann.

Winner Prediction: The Salesman

The safe money could be on German comedy Erdmann, but I’m leaning toward Iranian drama The Salesman. I could switch back before showtime.

Best Cinematography

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: My Nocturnal Animals love bore no fruit again as my first alternate Lion was nominated. Other nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Moonlight, and Silence.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

I’ll go with the probable Best Picture winner, but Moonlight and Arrival are possibilities.

Best Costume Design

Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)

Analysis: I guess I know my costumes as I correctly predicted Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, and La La Land.

Winner Prediction: Jackie

The La La love could extend here and possibly even Colleen Atwood’s work for Fantastic Beasts, but I’ll go Jackie.

Best Editing

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Hell or High Water got in as opposed to Manchester. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Moonlight.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

This category often matches Picture and it should here, too. Hacksaw and Arrival have shots.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Todd’s Performance: 1/3

Analysis: Not so good… There were seven possibilities out of three nominees and I only was able to get Star Trek Beyond right. In place of Deadpool and Florence Foster Jenkins are A Man Called Ove and Suicide Squad.

Winner Prediction: Star Trek Beyond

I guess I’ll go with it since it’s the only one I named correctly. This could change…

Best Original Score

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

Analysis: Jackie and a legitimately unforeseen Passengers got in instead of Florence Foster Jenkins and Nocturnal Animals, along with La La Land, Lion, and Moonlight.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

The musical should win here, but Lion could possibly be an upset winner. Not likely though.

Best Original Song

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Expected nominees got in like the two from La La (“Audition” and “City of Stars”), Moana‘s “How Far I’ll Go”, and Justin Timberlake’s Trolls chart topper “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”. I went with “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street but the voters surprisingly chose “”The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story, a tune that was never even on my radar.

Winner Prediction: “City of Stars” from La La Land

It’s won the Golden Globe and should take this one.

Best Production Design

Todd’s Performance: 2/5

Analysis: Damn production designers! This one threw me for a loop as I only got Arrival and La La Land right. I whiffed on Jackie (which I was certain would get in), Nocturnal Animals (again), and Silence. In their place: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar!, and those darn Passengers.

Winner Prediction: La La Land 

La La should have this wrapped up over the competitors.

Best Sound Editing

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Sully got in here instead of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, along with Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, and La La Land.

Winner Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge

Could be La La, Arrival, or even Deepwater, but I’ll give this to Hacksaw for its lone win.

Best Sound Mixing

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Surprise nod here for 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. I had Sully picked. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Rogue One.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

Hard to imagine La La not taking this one.

Best Visual Effects

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

Deepwater Horizon and Kubo and the Two Strings made it in as opposed to Arrival (bit surprised there) and Fantastic Beasts (not as much so). Other nominees: Disney trio Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, and Rogue One.

Winner Prediction: The Jungle Book

This could be a close one with Rogue, but I’ll predict Mowgli and his amazing CG animals pals.

That leaves this official breakdown of nominations:

14 Nominations

La La Land

8 Nominations

Arrival, Moonlight

6 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Manchester by the Sea

4 Nominations

Fences, Hell or High Water

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Jackie

2 Nominations

Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

1 Nomination

Allied, Captain Fantastic, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fire at Sea, Hail, Caesar!, I Am Not Your Negro, Jim: The James Foley Story, The Jungle Book, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, The Lobster, Loving, My Life as a Zucchini, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Sully, Tanna, 13th, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Toni Erdmann, Trolls, 20th Century Women, Zootopia

And HERE is my current WINNER breakdown:

9 Wins

La La Land

2 Wins

Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

1 Win

Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, The Jungle Book, The Salesman, Star Trek Beyond, Zootopia

And that (whew) does it for now! You can rest assure I’ll be back shortly before the big ceremony to make final winner picks. Until then…