Tag: Lesley Manville

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Cold Storage Box Office Prediction

    While his Stranger Things costars Caleb McLaughlin and David Harbour provide voiceover work for Goat next weekend, Joe Keery is part of the cast for horror comedy Cold Storage. Opening February 13th, Jonny Campbell directs with a script from veteran scribe David Koepp. Besides Keery, Georgina Campbell, Sosie Bacon, Vanessa Redgrave, Lesley Manville, and Liam Neeson appear.

    With solid reviews thus far, Storage will attempt to stake its claim among numerous competitors debuting over the Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. It might have a tricky time finding its niche. Outside of some franchise stalwarts, mixing these two genres is a risky gambit.

    I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my forecast. My hunch is it doesn’t even reach mid single digits over the three or four-day premiere.

    Cold Storage opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $2 million (Friday to Monday)

    For my Wuthering Heights prediction, click here:

    Wuthering Heights Box Office Prediction

    For my Goat prediction, click here:

    Goat Box Office Prediction

    For my Crime 101 prediction, click here:

    Crime 101 Box Office Prediction

    For my Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die prediction, click here:

    Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die Box Office Prediction

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 21st Edition

    The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.

    There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.

    We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.

    For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)

    14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Queer

    Nosferatu

    The Apprentice

    All We Imagine as Light

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    The Piano Lesson

    Wicked

    Juror No. 2

    His Three Daughters

    A Different Man

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

    James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

    Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

    Luca Guadagnino, Queer

    Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

    Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

    Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

    June Squibb, Thelma

    Zendaya, Challengers

    Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

    Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

    Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

    John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

    Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress

    Lesley Manville, Queer

    Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

    Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

    Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Drew Starkey, Queer

    Harris Dickinson, Blitz

    Mark Eidelstein, Anora

    Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

    John Lithgow, Conclave

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)

    Dropped Out:

    His Three Daughters

    Dídi

    Kinds of Kindness

    A Different Man

    Juror No. 2

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    I’m Still Here

    Gladiator II

    Nightbitch

    Inside Out 2

    Nosferatu

    The Wild Robot

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Simon of the Mountain

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Room Next Door

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Queer

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

    “Why Am I Here” from Shirley

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    A Complete Unknown

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    8 Nominations

    Blitz

    6 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Conclave, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

    To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.

    Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.

    Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.

    There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.

    In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.

    And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.

    Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

    12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)

    14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)

    15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)

    17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)

    18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)

    19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)

    21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)

    22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)

    23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Nightbitch

    Maria

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting

    Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

    14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    André Holland, The Actor

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Kathy Burke, Blitz

    Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)

    Dropped Out:

    Stephen Graham, Blitz

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    The Fire Inside

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)

    5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Count of Monte Cristo

    Cloud

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Queer

    Maria

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Queer

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)

    9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    Blitz

    Nickel Boys

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

    “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

    “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Civil War

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Alien: Romulus

    And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Conclave, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked

    Oscar Predictions: The Critic

    I have been penning a number of posts in the past few days based on reactions to screenings from the Toronto Film Festival. Anand Tucker’s The Critic is another, but it premiered at last year’s TIFF and is finally hitting theaters in the UK this weekend. Ian McKellen headlines the thriller as the London theater title character engaged in a blackmail scheme. Gemma Arterton, Mark Strong, Ben Barnes, Alfred Enoch, and Lesley Manville costar.

    The film has taken its time finding a release schedule. That’s probably because reaction was decidedly mixed upon its Canadian unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 45% with a Metacritic score of 53. Despite some expected compliments for Mr. McKellen, this Critic will not be considered by voters in awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 3rd Edition

    You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.

    Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.

    The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.

    Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.

    The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.

    Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).

    In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.

    The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.

    You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)

    13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)

    15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)

    17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)

    18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)

    19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)

    20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)

    21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)

    22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

    23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)

    25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Hard Truths

    The End

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

    7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)

    14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

    Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)

    8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)

    11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)

    14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)

    5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)

    11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Valeria Golino, Maria

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)

    9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)

    10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)

    13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)

    15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)

    Dropped Out:

    Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

    11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The End

    Maria

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Evil Does Not Exist

    Simon of the Mountain

    Uprising

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)

    8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Most Precious of Cargoes

    Transformers One

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Union

    Gaucho Gaucho

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Conclave

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    A Complete Unknown

    Queer

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    Sasquatch Sunset

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Here

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    TBD from Wicked

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Queer

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    A Quiet Place: Day One

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

    And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Blitz

    8 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    6 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Conclave

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Maria, A Real Pain

    1 Nomination

    Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    Oscar Predictions: Queer

    Daniel Craig veers far from his James Bond/Benoit Blanc personas in Queer from Luca Guadagnino. Based on a 1985 novel from William S. Burroughs, essentially plays the author as an expat in Mexico City who falls for a younger man (Drew Starkey). Lesley Manville and Jason Schwartzman costar. A24 has it planned for a late calendar release and it has premiered at the Venice Film Festival.

    Guadagnino, whose Call Me by Your Name received four Oscar nods in 2017 including Best Picture, directs his second feature of 2024 behind Challengers. This was looked at as the more probable awards contender. Reaction from Italy may change that dynamic with one exception.

    The Rotten Tomatoes score is 75%. That’s fair, but word-of-mouth indicates polarizing reactions are to be expected. Inclusion in the ten BP nominees seems like more of a reach than it did yesterday. Queer has been in my projected 10 all year. I anticipate it won’t be when my forthcoming update arrives. Viability in Adapted Screenplay also appears shaky. So do down the line mentions in tech competitions (though maybe the score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross could still contend).

    As for the cast, Manville is actually getting the second best notices but I doubt she makes the Supporting Actress cut. Mr. Craig might be the pic’s only nom and I no longer think his spot in the quintet is secure. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 20th Edition

    In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.

    As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.

    The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.

    This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.

    You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)

    13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)

    16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)

    17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)

    18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)

    19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)

    20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)

    21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)

    23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)

    25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    The Fire Inside

    Here

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)

    Dropped Out:

    Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

    Marielle Heller, Nightbitch

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Zendaya, Challengers

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Tom Hanks, Here

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Glenn Close, The Deliverance

    Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Paul Raci, Sing Sing

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    A Different Man

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)

    13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Kneecap

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)

    5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    A Complete Unknown

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Nightbitch

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    The Piano Lesson

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

    3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Maria

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Emilia Pérez

    Twisters

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Blitz

    8 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    6 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

    2 Nominations

    A Different Man, A Real Pain

    1 Nomination

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: August 5th Edition

    Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.

    One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.

    I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.

    The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.

    Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.

    I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.

    You can peruse all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)

    15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)

    16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)

    17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)

    18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)

    20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)

    21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)

    22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)

    23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)

    24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)

    25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)

    10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

    11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Kathy Burke, Blitz

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The End (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)

    14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

    All We Imagine as Light

    I Saw the TV Glow

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Here

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Simon of the Mountain

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Orion and the Dark

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Frida

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Maria

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Here

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

    3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)

    9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Conclave

    8 Nominations

    Blitz, Emilia Pérez

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

    2 Nominations

    A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain

    1 Nomination

    Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 29th Edition

    The unexpected announcement that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is releasing in 2024 shakes up my predictions. I have it being nominated in four races. That would include Best Picture (where it replaces The Piano Lesson) and Timothèe Chalamet in Actor as he vaults over The Piano Lesson‘s John David Washington. It was not a great week for Piano as I now have it being solely nominated for Samuel L. Jackson in Supporting Actor. Yet even he drops to second in favor of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.

    The news is not all positive for that movie. As I hinted at last week, Sing Sing was a very soft frontrunner in BP and A24’s release strategy has been curious. Therefore I am elevating Steve McQueen’s Blitz back to first position with its director atop that category over Dune‘s Denis Villeneuve. Colman Domingo is still in my lead for Actor.

    There are two alterations in the supporting fields with Isabella Rossellini returning to Supporting Actress over… you guessed it… Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) returns to my anticipated quintet in Supporting Actor in place of Adam Pearson from A Different Man.

    The Venice and Toronto festivals have announced the bulk of their lineups for late August into September. There has also been screening news for New York and London and we have a general idea of some pics likely to play Telluride. The lack of certain titles at those events have caused me to drop some hopefuls. This include The Apprentice, The Collaboration, and Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Should they be confirmed for the 2024 calendar, I’ll obviously readjust.

    A quick note on Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It appears that Julianne Moore is more likely to be in lead Actress with Tilda Swinton in supporting. I’ve made that change though I’ve yet to put either of the past winners in my final five picks.

    Of course, this is all completely unknown at press time but you can peruse all my best guesswork below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-4)

    12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. The End (PR: 19) (+3)

    17. Maria (PR: 18) (+1)

    18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    19. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (-2)

    20. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (+2)

    21. The Fire Inside (PR: 20) (-1)

    22. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (-7)

    23. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-2)

    24. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. Wicked (PR: 24) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Apprentice

    Dídi

    His Three Daughters

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

    9. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+3)

    11. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 11) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Marianne-Jean Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to supporting

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door – moved to lead

    Erin Kellyman, Blitz

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Hard Truths (PR:5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

    8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The End (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Challengers (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Apprentice

    A Different Man

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Collaboration

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

    3. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Caught by the Tides (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Uprising (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Emmanuelle

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Flow (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Savages (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Most Precious of Cargoes

    The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Daughters (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. No Other Land (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Conclave (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Maria (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Blitz (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Megalopolis

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-5)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Queer (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Blitz (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Conclave (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Challengers (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Here (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. TBD from Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Maria (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Twisters (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Sing Sing

    Civil War

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    And that shakes out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Blitz

    7 Nominations

    Conclave, Emilia Pérez

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

    4 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Queer

    3 Nominations

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    2 Nominations

    A Different Man, A Real Pain, Wicked

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper