Tag: Bob Marley: One Love

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Wicked

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Wang, Dídi

Alex Garland, Civil War

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Sing Sing

5. The End

6. Queer

7. The Fire Inside

8. Bird

9. Kinds of Kindness

10. Dídi

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux

12. The Apprentice

13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

15. Civil War

16. Maria

17. Megalopolis

18. The Piano Lesson

19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

20. A Real Pain

21. Here

22. The Nickel Boys

23. Hard Truths

24. Wicked

25. Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

12. Sean Wang, Dídi

13. Alex Garland, Civil War

14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

5. Tilda Swinton, The End

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

13. Zendaya, Challengers

14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

4. Daniel Craig, Queer

5. André Holland, The Actor

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

7. George MacKay, The End

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joan Chen, Dídi

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

4. Lesley Manville, Queer

5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

8. Drew Starkey, Queer

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

11. John Lithgow, Conclave

12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And here we go! We are about four weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded two nominees: winner Cillian Murphy as Oppenheimer and Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Colman Domingo in Rustin and Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers I did not identify Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actor.

My first projections give Colman Domingo a second shot in a row in this competition. Cillian Murphy could be back as well. They also open up the possibility of Joaquin Phoenix’s return as Joker giving him another statue in the role. In 2023, I listed Kingsley Ben-Adir in Bob Marley: One Love as one of my predicted quintet. Now he’s an Other Possibility (and a somewhat remote one at that).

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Daniel Craig, Queer

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

André Holland, The Actor

Barry Keoghan, Bird

Other Possibilities:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Paul Mescal, Gladiator 2

Cillian Murphy, Small Things like These

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

Glen Powell, Hit Man

Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Back to Black

Back to Black doesn’t hit domestic venues until May 17th, but the biopic is out this weekend in the U.K. and reviews are available for download. Focused on the life of British crooner Amy Winehouse, Fifty Shades of Grey helmer Sam Taylor-Johnson directs with Marisa Abel as the late singer. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Critical reaction is decidedly mixed. Trades like Variety and Hollywood Reporter are mostly positive while plenty of across the pond publications are panning it. The current result is 52% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Like another 2024 musical biopic about a legend gone too soon (Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title part), notices for its headliner are stronger than the picture itself. Abel is being praised and she’s at least a slight threat to contend in Best Actress. Like Ben-Adir, it might be a stretch to make the final cut. Perhaps BAFTA is more doable. Don’t expect Black to factor in anywhere else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Mark Wahlberg stars in dog tale Arthur the King while A24 thriller Love Lies Bleeding with Kristen Stewart expands nationwide. Those newcomers are highly unlikely to dislodge Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two from the top two positions. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Arthur the King Box Office Prediction
Love Lies Bleeding Box Office Prediction

Arthur could exceed expectations as canine content sometimes can. My lower double digits estimate puts it in third place as it hopes for word-of-mouth to keep it around for a while.

Bleeding performed well in 5 venues on the coasts, but could face headwinds as it rolls out everywhere. My forecast could put it anywhere from 4-6 though I’m banking on 6th.

The battle for #1 could be tight between Kung Fu Panda 4‘s sophomore outing and the third frame of Dune: Part Two. The former had a terrific premiere at the highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). The second weekend dip could be 50% or a little more or less. Dune may only decline in the 40% range and that could create a photo finish. I’ll give Panda the slight edge.

Assuming Bleeding doesn’t over perform, 4-5 should be a close race between the second stands for Imaginary and Cabrini.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. Love Lies Bleeding

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (March 8-10)

DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4 easily ruled the charts with a potent $57.9 million. I thought the long running franchise would continue its downward trend (part 3 started with $41.2 million), but I was off base with my meager $38.1 million prediction. This is actually the second best start for the series after the original’s $60.2 million in 2008.

Dune: Part Two filled the runner-up spot with $46.2 million and that’s still ahead of my $40.7 million call. The acclaimed sequel eased only 44% as its two-week tally has reached $157 million.

In third, Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary (which features a bear not doing martial arts) debuted to barely under its reported $10 million budget with $9.9 million. I was close at $10.5 million. While this doesn’t match various other genre offerings from the studio, it’s still a satisfactory figure considering the price tag.

Cabrini from Angel Studios was fourth with $7.1 million, not reaching my $8.9 million projection. The period piece biopic from the maker of Sound of Freedom hopes to post smallish drops as we head towards Easter.

Bob Marley: One Love rounded out the top five with $4 million (I went higher with $5.2 million) as this biopic has amassed $89 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Kung Fu Panda 4 will attempt to kick Dune: Part Two out of the top spot this weekend and we also have Blumhouse horror flick Imaginary and faith-based biopic Cabrini debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction
Imaginary Box Office Prediction
Cabrini Box Office Prediction

I am estimating that DreamWorks Animation’s Panda franchise will continue its downward trend with a high 30s start after the longest layoff between entries.

If that occurs, that likely means a 2nd place showing behind the sophomore frame of Dune: Part Two. That hotly anticipated sequel opened right in line with expectations (more on that below) and had an A Cinemascore grade. Some of its business is understandably frontloaded, but its drop could hold up sturdier than other genre fare in the high 40s to low 50s range.

Blumhouse should have another profitable fright fest with Imaginary considering its reported low budget. However, I don’t envision it premiering anywhere near the studio’s biggest earners. A low double digits gross could put it in third.

That’s unless Cabrini overperforms and it’s the weekend wild car in my view. Coming from Angel Studios and the director of last summer’s smash Sound of Freedom, this could surprise if faith-based crowds turn out in force. On the other hand, Angel’s follow-ups like After Death and The Shift have only managed mid single digits out of the gate. I’m splitting the difference and forecasting a fourth place finish.

Finally, Bob Marley: One Love should round out the top five as it attempts to reach $100 million domestically.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $40.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

3. Imaginary

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Cabrini

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 1-3)

I had Dune: Part Two doubling the debut of its 2021 predecessor and that’s precisely what occurred. The sequel, which landed even better reviews than the heavily Oscar nominated original, took in $82.5 million. That’s in line with my $83.6 million prediction and just over what Oppenheimer premiered with last summer. Christopher Nolan’s biopic (which is about to be crowned Best Picture) experienced only a 43% second weekend decline. As mentioned, Dune‘s should be more, but perhaps not by too much.

After two weeks in first, Bob Marley: One Love was second with $7.4 million and that’s right on target with my $7.5 million call. That biopic now stands at $82 million after three weeks.

Ordinary Angels remained in third with $3.8 million, falling shy of my $4.9 million projection. The faith-based drama with Hilary Swank has $12 million in its coffers after two weeks.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $2.9 million). Since its Leap Day Thursday opening, the total is $4 million.

Finally, superheroine flop Madame Web was fifth with $3.1 million (I said $2.9 million) for a mere $40 million in its three frames of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.

Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.

Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $83.6 million

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (February 23-25)

Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.

Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.

Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.

Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.

Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.

Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction
Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction
Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.

I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).

The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.

While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.

Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.

Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:

1. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Migration

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

7. Drive-Away Dolls

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 16-19)

The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.

Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.

Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.

The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.

Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 16-19 Box Office Predictions

As for the trailer for prequel A Quiet Place: Day One debuted this week, multiplexes themselves were even quieter over the Super Bowl weekend. With the Valentine and President’s Day holiday hitting, studios are hoping business gets louder. We have Spider-Man Universe flick Madame Web starring Dakota Johnson and musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love looking to place 1-2 when they open on February 14th. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Madame Web Box Office Prediction
Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

The top 3 should all be newbies with faith-based The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 beginning on Thursday. On the day before, Madame Web hopes to break a recent run of so-so starts for comic book adaptations. That could be a tall order. I have it opening in the low 20s over the 4-day with low30s when counting the six-day output.

Marley might be close behind with low 20s from Friday to Monday and high 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. If it manages to over perform (which could be tricky considering the lackluster reviews), it might contend for the top spot if Web doesn’t match its fairly meager expectations.

Episodes 1-3 of The Chosen‘s fourth season made nearly $6 million from Friday to Sunday in the first weekend of February. Grosses could be about the same even with the extra day thrown in.

Holdovers Argylle and The Beekeeper are likely to populate the remainder of the high five with last weekend’s newcomer Lisa Frankenstein dropping out altogether (more on that below).

Here’s how I think it’ll look and keep in mind that these projections are for Friday thru Monday:

1. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $28.9 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

3. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 9-11)

It was the weakest frame since early December 2022 as spy action comedy Argylle plummeted 64% and still managed to stay #1. It made $6.2 million and was right on target with my $6.1 million prediction. The subpar two-week take is $28 million.

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein was the only newcomer and it was DOA in second with a putrid $3.6 million. That’s well below my $6.8 million forecast and it should experience a hefty decline in subsequent frames.

The Beekeeper was third at $3.3 million (I said $3.5 million) as Jason Statham’s steady grosser hit $54 million after five weeks.

Holiday holdover Wonka was fourth with $3 million, a shade under my $3.4 million projection. The total is $205 million in its ninth go-round.

Finally, animated Migration rounded out the top five in weekend #8 with $2.9 million compared to my $3.2 million guesstimate. It’s up to $110 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions – Bob Marley: One Love

When Reinaldo Marcus Green’s Bob Marley: One Love, the biopic of the reggae icon was slated for early 2024 (it’s out February 14th), it called into question the viability of its awards prospects. After all, most real contenders aren’t seen in the first quarter unless it’s a Sundance screening. That speculation has been confirmed with the review embargo now lifted.

Kingsley Ben-Adir, who likely came close to a Supporting Actor nod in 2020 for One Night in Miami…, plays the title character with Lashana Lynch as wife Rita. The supporting cast includes James Norton, Tosin Cole, Umi Myers, and Anthony Welsh. Green’s previous pic King Richard gave Will Smith a much discussed Best Actor victory.

Don’t look for the Academy to look too much into Love and that could include Ben-Adir’s performance (though I wouldn’t totally discount the possibility). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 36% and even the positive(ish) reviews use descriptions like serviceable and decent. Despite Marley’s beloved music, I wouldn’t look for Sound to be in play (though it would be the only race where it’s somewhat possible). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…