Most horror remakes would not warrant an Oscar Watch post. However, when it’s an update of the 1977 Dario Argento cult classic and it’s directed by Luca Guadagnino – we come to the 2018 version of Suspiria.
The film premiered at the Venice Film Festival this weekend and it’s said to be a blend of gore and dance that departs significantly from its source material. Early critical reaction is very mixed and its drawn some comparisons to last year’s mother! That could be a sign that audiences could be baffled by this concoction.
Guadagnino saw his previous work, 2017 CallMebyYourName, nab a Best Picture nomination. That will not happen here and I don’t expect it to play any role in other high-profile categories, including the performances of Dakota Johnson or Tilda Swinton.
The new Suspiria is said to place a greater emphasis on dance sequences. If there was an Oscar for Best Choreography, this could be a shoo-in. There could be the possibility of recognition in Production Design or for Radiohead lead singer Thom Yorke’s Original Score, but Suspiria is more likely to be a non-factor come Oscar time.
Bottom line: expect Suspiria to get lots of publicity, divide audiences, and generate controversy. Don’t expect awards attention.
The film comes out domestically on October 26. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have arrived at my penultimate weekly Oscar predictions. With the Oscar nods arriving in 8 days, I will be making my final estimates next Monday. And as we get closer and closer to actually knowing the nominees, there are some notable changes today:
Jordan Peele has at last entered my predicted five in the Director category, replacing Steven Spielberg.
Daniel Kaluuya is in Best Actor for the first time, replacing Tom Hanks.
Frances McDormand has taken the #1 spot in Actress over Saoirse Ronan.
In more good news for ThreeBillboards, Sam Rockwell has reached the top spot in Supporting Actor over Willem Dafoe.
Octavia Spencer has replaced Holly Hunter in Supporting Actress.
You can read it all here with those last estimates coming in one week!
Two major developments since last week’s Oscar predictions as the Golden Globes happened and the Production Guild Award nominations came out. Combined with other precursor activity, one thing has become clear to me:
It was time to remove Dunkirk from its months long perch in the #1 slot. It’s fallen to #4 and we finally have a new #1 – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Truth be told, I could have just as easily put The Shape of Water or Lady Bird in that spot. It’s a close race, folks!
Guillermo del Toro replaces Christopher Nolan in the top spot for director, as does Allison Janney in Supporting Actress over Laurie Metcalf.
We are only 15 days away from nominations and here’s my take at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
4. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
5. The Post (PR: 3)
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
9. The Big Sick (PR: 12)
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 13)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
13. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
14. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 8)
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 6)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 9)
9. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
7. The Post (PR: 6)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 9)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 2)
3. The Insult (PR: 4)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
5. In the Fade (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
9. Felicite (PR: 8)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Icarus (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 4)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: 7)
8. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. LA 92 (PR: 8)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Chasing Coral
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 9)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hostiles
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 6)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
10. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bright (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 5)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 6)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
8. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 7)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Coco (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
8. Coco (PR: 8)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. The Post (PR: 4)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
3. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
4. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
8. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 9)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following nomination breakdown for each picture –
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, I, Tonya, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Wonder Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Baby Driver, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Ferdinand, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Insult, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Long Strange Trip, City of Ghosts, Icarus
Back at it again with my first 2018 predictions for the Oscars! We are just three weeks away from the reveal of the nominations. On Sunday, a large awards precursor will occur when the Golden Globes air…
Here’s the major developments this week –
For the first time, I’m switching from a predicted nine pictures being nominated to eight. Why? Well, part of it is selfish. I feel rather confident about the eight features predicted. The nine (or ten) spot could be a mix of Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Big Sick, or Mudbound. Perhaps one or two of them sneak in. For now, they’re all out.
Speaking of The Big Sick, I’ve finally put it in the Original Screenplay predictions, which leaves out The Post.
While there’s no changes in the acting races, let’s see how the next three weeks play out. For now, my initial 2018 estimates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
6. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Get Out (PR: 6)
8. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Mudbound (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 13)
13. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 8)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
8. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 6)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 9)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 6)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 8)
9. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. All the Money in the World (PR: 8)
9. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Beguiled
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 4)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 9)
8. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 8)
9. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. Loveless (PR: 4)
3. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 3)
4. The Insult (PR: 6)
5. The Square (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Fade (PR: 5)
7. The Wound (PR: 7)
8. Felicite (PR: 8)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 5)
4. Strong Island (PR: 7)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Icarus (PR: 3)
7. Last Men in Aleppo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. LA 92 (PR: 4)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
10. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
9. Get Out (PR: 8)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 3)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
7. Mudbound (PR: 6)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
10. Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Bird
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. Downsizing (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 5)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 9)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
8. The Post (PR: 7)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Wonder (PR: 2)
3. Bright (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 3)
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 4)
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
7. Ghost in the Shell (PR: 7)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Okja (PR: 7)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: 8)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: 9)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 6)
8. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coco (PR: 10)
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
8. Coco (PR: 10)
9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
3. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 4)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 7)
10. “The Star” from The Star (PR: 10)
And that leaves the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Post
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
3 Nominations
Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Mudbound, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, Get Out, The Disaster Artist, The Big Sick, Downsizing, Wonder, Coco, Beauty and the Beast, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Victoria and Abdul, Bright, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, The Square, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Strong Island, Long Strange Trip
Greetings everyone! It’s Monday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are back. In the past week, we’ve seen SAG nominations (often a better indicator than the Globes when it comes to precursors) released. This week, we’re going to see review embargoes lifted for All the Money in the World (tomorrow) and The Greatest Showman (Wednesday). These are really the final two pieces of the awards puzzle.
Here are the significant developments and changes in my rankings from the last 7 days:
Best Picture remains the same nine nominees, but Phantom Thread is, well, hanging by one with Mudbound, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, and (maybe) All the Money in the World close behind.
Daniel Kaluuya moves up to #6 in Best Actor possibilities. I’m not ready to put him in, but he’s making Franco and Hanks look a bit vulnerable.
In Supporting Actor, I’ve replaced Michael Stuhlbarg with Woody Harrelson.
In Supporting Actress, I’ve replaced Melissa Leo with Octavia Spencer. I nearly went with Holly Hunter for the 5 spot.
In Adapted Screenplay where the fifth slot looks up for grabs, I’ve put in All the Money in the World in for now (replacing Wonder).
The Foreign Language film race released its nine possible contenders. Surprisingly, BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Angelina Jolie’s First, They Killed My Father were left out.
The Visual Effects category named their ten possible films. Left off were Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and Beauty and the Beast. I had all four in my top ten possibles, but not in my predicted five.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. The Post (PR: 4)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 7)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 11)
11. Darkest Hour (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 7)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
7. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
10. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 9)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. All the Money in the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder (PR: 5)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Get Out (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. The Girl Without Hands (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 7)
8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
9. Ferdinand (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Boss Baby
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 1)
2. The Square (PR: 3)
3. Loveless (PR: 5)
4. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
5. In the Fade (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Insult (PR: 8)
7. The Wound (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Felicite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. On Body and Soul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
First, They Killed My Father
Thelma
The Divine Order
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: Not Ranked)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 5)
7. One of Us (PR: 7)
8. LA 92 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 6)
10. Chasing Coral (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. The Post (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
10. Get Out (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Call Me by Your Name
Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonderstruck
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
**Blogger’s Note (12/19/17): A days after my initial estimates, the Academy has announced the seven films that will compete in the category. My updated predictions are reflected here:
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
3. Wonder (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
5. Bright (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Ghost in the Shell (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beauty and the Beast
Phantom Thread
Logan
The Shape of Water
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
It
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
7. Kong: Skull Island (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Okja (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Alien: Covenant (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Beauty and the Beast
Wonder Woman
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 8)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
4. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
5. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
7. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 8)
9. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 10)
That gives us the following nomination breakdowns:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
The Post
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
7 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Lady Bird
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Downsizing, Molly’s Game, All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, Wonder Woman, Wonder, Baby Driver, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Detroit, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3, Foxtrot, The Square, Loveless, A Fantastic Woman, In the Fade, Jane, Faces Places, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip
My Oscar picks will be updated next on Christmas Day!
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions. There’s been a host of precursor activity in the past week with the biggest coming this morning as the Golden Globe nominations were announced.
The verdict? The five nominated Best Drama contenders are all very likely Oscar competitors – Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me by Your Name. In the Comedy category, both Lady Bird and Get Out got in as expected.
Speaking of Get Out, this week marks its first inclusion in my estimated nine contenders. In fact, it vaults four spots up to #7. Something had to come out and it was Darkest Hour, whose luster seems to be fading.
Another Globe surprise: the strong showing for All the Money in the World. Reviews have yet to come, but it was nominated for Director (Ridley Scott), Actress in Drama (Michelle Williams), and Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer, who famously took over the role from the embattled Kevin Spacey). All three debut on the lower rung on my predictions.
In other developments:
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) is in for Supporting Actor over Mark Rylance (Dunkirk)
Two changes in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) and Hong Chau (Downsizing) in over Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
In the Screenplay races, Wonder is in for Adapted over Wonderstruck while in the crowded Original Screenplay category, The Shape of Water is back in over Phantom Thread
Read on!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: 11)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 9)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
11. Mudbound (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Disaster Artist
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)
5. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
3. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 6)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
8. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 9)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: 10)
10. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
5. Wonder (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Victoria and Abdul
First, They Killed My Father
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Get Out (PR: 5)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
8. Despicable Me 3 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Boss Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ferdinand
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
In this Corner of the World
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Foxtrot (PR: 2)
2. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
3. The Square (PR: 7)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. Loveless (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. In the Fade (PR: 4)
8. The Insult (PR: 5)
9. Thelma (PR: 9)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Faces Places (PR: 5)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
4. Long Strange Trip (PR: 7)
5. Strong Island (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: Not Ranked)
7. One of Us (PR: 9)
8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Chasing Coral (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cries from Syria
Icarus
Risk
Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Blade Runner 2049
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: 7)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Wonder (PR: 9)
5. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
8. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
10. It (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. Detroit (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 8)
8. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 10)
9. Detroit (PR: 5)
10. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 7)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Mighty River” from Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 6)
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
“The Promise” from The Promise
And that break down for the following number of nominations for each picture:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Post
6 Nominations
Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Darkest Hour, Mudbound
2 Nominations
Get Out, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
1 Nomination
Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Wonder, Wonderstruck, Baby Driver, Marshall, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Cars 3, The Girl Without Hands, Foxtrot, BPM (Beats Per Minute), The Square, First, They Killed My Father, Loveless, Jane, Faces Places, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, Strong Island
Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.
Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:
The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.
You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 7)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
11. Get Out (PR: 11)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)
13. Detroit (PR: 13)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, CallMebyYourName (PR: 3)
4. James Franco, TheDisasterArtist (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)
10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)
7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)
10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)
3. Mudbound (PR: 2)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 7)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Get Out (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Despicable Me 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. In the Fade (PR: 2)
5. The Insult (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. The Square (PR: 5)
8. Loveless (PR: 7)
9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Happy End
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 1)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
4. Icarus (PR: 3)
5. Faces Places (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Strong Island (PR: 8)
7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)
8. Risk (PR: 7)
9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Step
The Final Year
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 4)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Mudbound (PR: 10)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 7)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)
7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonder (PR: 7)
10. It (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thor: Ragnarok
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Beauty and the Beast
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
5. Detroit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Transformers: The Last Knight
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
2. PhantomThread (PR: 2)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)
And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:
11 Nominations
Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
1 Nomination
Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall.
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association put their stamp on awards season today and it marked a solid afternoon for Luca Guadagnino’s CallMebyYourName and Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater. The latter hasn’t received much precursor love thus far. The former picked up its first Best Picture prize.
LAFC also honors runner-ups and that went to TheFloridaProject, another pic that seems to be on the upswing at the moment. There was a tie for Best Director between Guadagnino and del Toro. The CallMe love continued with Timothee Chalamet taking Best Actor with James Franco (TheDisasterArtist) second. The Water appreciation extended to Sally Hawkins for Actress with Frances McDormand (ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri) following.
Supporting Actor went to Willem Dafoe in Project, making him 3 for 3 including the NBR and New York Critics. Sam Rockwell in Billboards was on his heels. Laurie Metcalf in LadyBird was victorious for Supporting Actress with Mary J. Blige in Mudbound in the two spot.
Bottom line: the Academy’s Best Picture race is indeed looking wide open right now and CallMe and Shape had nice west coast showings today to keep their names relevant.
I’m back at it again with my post Turkey Day Oscar predictions. The winner of this particular week is Phantom Thread, which has held screenings. While reviews are under strict embargo until next week, there is some positive word emanating from the Twitterverse. It’s buzz could certainly change once official reviews are released, but for now I’ve got it in Best Picture for the first time and that means The Florida Project has been taken out. Additionally, Phantom has gone from an estimated four nods last week to seven today.
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is also gaining traction even though official reviews aren’t yet out. It’s doubled my predicted nomination count from 4 to 8 this week.
If there’s a loser this week, it’s Darkest Hour. I had it at 10 nominations last week and now I have it at 6.
Some other developments:
Best Director has two newbies: Spielberg and Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. That means Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) and Dee Rees (Mudbound) are currently out.
In Best Actor, I’ve removed Andrew Garfield (Breathe) in favor of James Franco (The Disaster Artist).
Changes in both Supporting races as I’ve put Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) in and taken Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) out. In Supporting Actress, I’ve vaulted Lesley Manville’s (there’s buzz) work in Phantom Thread in, therefore removing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.
Here’s how I’ve got it all playing out!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. LadyBird (PR: 7)
5. CallMebyYourName (PR: 6)
6. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
7. ThePost (PR: 8)
8. Mudbound (PR: 5)
9. PhantomThread (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
10. TheFloridaProject (PR: 7)
11. GetOut (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
13. Detroit (PR: 14)
14. BattleoftheSexes (PR: 15)
15. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 13)
BestDirector
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, LadyBird (PR: 6)
5. Steven Spielberg, ThePost (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, CallMebyYourName (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Lesley Manville, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 10)
8. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
9. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Breathe
BestAdaptedScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. CallMebyYourName (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’sGame (PR: 3)
4. TheDisasterArtist (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. LastFlagFlying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 10)
8. VictoriaandAbdul (PR: 7)
9. First, TheyKilledMyFather (PR: Not Ranked)
10. TheBeguiled (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stronger
BestOriginalScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. LadyBird (PR: 3)
3. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
4. GetOut (PR: 4)
5. ThePost (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
7. TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. TheFloridaProject (PR: 6)
9. DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. PhantomThread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
9. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Girl Without Hands
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. Foxtrot (PR: 5)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. The Square (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. Loveless (PR: 7)
8. The Divine Order (PR: 9)
9. The Insult (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Happy End (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Tom of Finland
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 2)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
3. Icarus (PR: 3)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Step (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Risk (PR: 7)
8. Strong Island (PR: 5)
9. Faces Places (PR: 10)
10. The Final Year (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kedi
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
8. Lady Bird (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Get Out
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
9. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 8)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. The Post (PR: 7)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 3)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
10. It (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 10)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Coco
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
8. Detroit (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 6)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 3)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 4)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Jump” from Step
And that tallies up the following nominations for each film:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, Baby Driver
1 Nomination
Stronger, The Florida Project, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Cars 3, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Jane, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall
I’ll be back at it next Monday with updated predictions!
