2022 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.

While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.

That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.

Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)

12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)

7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)

10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Smith, Emancipation

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)

10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Menu (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (E)

9. Strange World (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Holy Spider (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joyland (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. Descendant (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sr. (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Retrograde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Last Flight Home

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Emancipation

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Woman King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elvis (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. X (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Amsterdam (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

She Said

White Noise

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Stand Up” from Till

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)

8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:

11 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

10 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Babylon, Women Talking

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Whale

4 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár

2 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: November 20th Edition

Two weeks have passed since my previous Oscar predictions and the biggest news is that there’s a new #1 in Best Picture. For quite some time, I’ve had Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans in first position. It would still make plenty of sense to keep it there. However, I’ve had a nagging feeling that this frontrunner is vulnerable. And my gut (at the moment) tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once is a major threat for the victory. Stephanie Hsu is back in Supporting Actress for Everything over Carey Mulligan (She Said).

This isn’t the only development in the last 14 days. Damien Chazelle’s eagerly awaited Babylon held screenings. The buzz is wildly mixed, but I still believe it should perform well with nominations.

Another big change in BP is that Avatar: The Way of Water has surfaced in the top 10 (where it’s yet to place before). She Said, which had a very disappointing box office showing this weekend, dips to 11th.

There are changes in Best Actor. For the first time, I’m elevating Tom Cruise to the top five in Best Actor. He does so at the expense of Hugh Jackman in The Son, whose wide release was just delayed to January. That indicates to me that Sony Pictures Classics is losing faith in the pic (which received plenty of negative reviews). They may focus the bulk of their attention on Bill Nighy in Living.

In Supporting Actor, I’ve put Paul Dano back in for The Fabelmans. That means Spielberg’s movie would have the double supporting nominees instead of The Banshees of Inisherin (Barry Keoghan has moved to sixth).

There’s modifications in Animated Feature with Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and My Father’s Dragon entering the quintet and Wendell and Wild and Strange World falling out. Holy Spider is back in International Feature Film to the detriment of Bardo. In Documentary Feature, Fire of Love returns with Last Flight Home out.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-2)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jean Smart, Babylon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: 8) (E)

9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Menu (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Broker

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bones and All (PR: 7) (E)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 6) (+3)

4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (+4)

5. The Bad Guys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Strange World (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Lightyear (PR: 9) (E)

10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. EO (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alcarras (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Klondike

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Last Flight Home (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)

8. X (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Thousand Years of Longing

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-4)

8. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Bardo

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 10) (+4)

7. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (E)

9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 7) (+4)

4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Babylon (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-4)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Fabelmans

9 Nominations

Babylon, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking

6 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Whale

4 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár

3 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Empire of Light, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: November 6th Edition

Over the past week, I posted deep dives into 6 major categories: Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, you can access them right there:

The numbers for those competitions are reflected below (therefore you won’t see Previous Rankings for them). For every other race, these are projections updated for the first time since October 23rd.

There’s less than two months left in the calendar year! We’re entering crunch time and here’s my state of the races as we sprint to the finish…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Babylon

4. Women Talking

5. The Banshees of Inisherin

6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. Tár

8. The Whale

9. Triangle of Sadness

10. She Said

Other Possibilities:

11. All Quiet on the Western Front

12. Decision to Leave

13. Avatar: The Way of Water

14. Elvis

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

5. Todd Field, Tár

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

9. Adam Driver, White Noise

10. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Claire Foy, Women Talking

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

8. Nina Hoss, Tár

9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. Jean Smart, Babylon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon

8. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Broker (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Armageddon Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bones & All (PR: 7) (E)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Son

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 3) (E)

4. Strange World (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Klondike (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)

8. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 6) (-2)

9. EO (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Alcarras (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Last Flight Home (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sr. (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aftershock

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Woman King (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. X (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

10. The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“On My Way” from Marry Me

“At the Automat” from The Automat

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Elvis (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. RRR (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (-3)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once, Women Talking

7 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

6 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

4 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, She Said

2 Nominations

Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Last Flight Home, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Strange World, Till, The Woman King, Wendell and Wild

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actress Race

The Supporting Actress derby is up next for my deep dives in the six major categories (Picture, Director, the 4 acting competitions). If you missed my current take on Supporting Actor, it’s here:

With two months left to go in the calendar year, it’s a good time to take stock in where we stand in 2022 with the various hopefuls. In 2019 and 2020 in late October, I correctly identified 3 of the 5 eventual nominees in Supporting Actress. Three years ago, that included eventual winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell). I had Scarlett Johansson listed in Other Possibilities for Jojo Rabbit while not having Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) yet on the radar. A year later, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were already in my top five. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) took the gold. Both she and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were tagged in Other Possibilities.

The ratio dropped in 2021. I named 2 of the 5 women with Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (who won) and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. 2 nominees – Judi Dench (Belfast) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) – were in Other Possibilities while Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) wasn’t in my listed ten.

We arrive at 2022 where Ms. Buckley is in the mix again. She appears in Women Talking alongside a large ensemble of additional actresses. This film gives us the highest probability of seeing double nominees from the same picture. It’s happened three times since 2010. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams were up for The Fighter that year with Leo emerging victorious. In 2011, Octavia Spencer took the statue for The Help with Jessica Chastain also making the cut. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were both in the mix for 2018’s The Favourite.

With Women Talking, the Academy could dive a tad deeper with Judith Ivery and Sheila McCarthy (who are standouts). I suspect they’ll go with Buckley and Claire Foy (who was notably snubbed three years ago for First Man). I’ve had the latter listed in first place as she’s got a slightly meatier role.

That brings us to a key caveat in this race. A few weeks back, there was the unexpected announcement that Michelle Williams in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in lead actress. She could’ve easily been placed here. If the studio had done that, I would continue to have Williams at #1 and feel confident that she’d win her first Oscar. However, in the Best Actress competition, I only have her in fourth position as of my last forecast.

Back to performers who are eligible in this. As long as The Banshees of Inisherin performs well with voters (and it should), Kerry Condon should make the quintet and could be a threat to win. Truth be told, this seems like a wide open competition without Williams. I could see either Women Talking actress at the podium or Condon. Same goes for Hong Chau as Brendan Fraser’s caretaker in The Whale or Stephanie Hsu as the world altering daughter in Everything Everywhere All at Once. That film offers the possibility of an additional double nomination with Jamie Lee Curtis’s nearly unrecognizable role. As for The Whale, I think Chau is far more likely than costar Sadie Sink.

I’m not as sold on Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, which may not make a dent at the ceremony. The many negative reviews for The Son have me questioning the viability of Vanessa Kirby or Laura Dern. Cha Cha Real Smooth might be too small for Dakota Johnson to nab her first Academy mention. Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King seems like a stretch. There’s unseen performances that could rise up like Kate Winslet (Avatar: The Way of Water) or Jean Smart (Babylon). Of all those choices, only Smart is in the top ten.

Critics groups may be integral in weeding out the nominees. This is where we could see Nina Hoss (Tár) or Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) rise up. Or we could get a nominee from a forthcoming hit such as Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) or Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).

Over the past couple of months, all of my five nominees have come from films that I have in my 1o Best Picture hopefuls. That also holds true for Supporting Actor. And, frankly, that usually doesn’t happen. This is partly why I’m putting Carey Mulligan (She Said) in my projections after the studio announced she’ll vie for supporting instead of lead. I’ve got She Said barely missing a BP nod.

Bottom line: nothing is close to being settled in Supporting Actress and the talking about these women could change as we get closer to nomination time.

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Actor is up next!

Everything Everywhere All at Once Review

It takes a few minutes to get acclimated to Everything Everywhere All at Once, a visionary and visual effects packed gumbo of genres from Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (the directing duo known as Daniels). For a very brief period of time, I was as skeptical in taking the journey as our central character Evelyn (Michelle Yeoh) is. That didn’t last long. By the time I’d witnessed hot dog fingers, raccoons assisting hibachi meal preparations, and world destroying bagels, Everything had 100% won my heart over. I mean that literally. This is an emotional ride by its third act… in a film with raccoons assisting hibachi meal preparations. It’s cliche to say “you’ve never seen anything quite like this!” Not this time as it’s applicable and glorious.

Evelyn is running a laundromat in poor financial shape alongside her kind but somewhat listless husband Waymond (Ke Huy Quan). This is not exactly their vision of the American dream after they emigrated from China. Evelyn’s ailing father (James Hong) now lives with them, but years ago he strongly felt Waymond wasn’t good enough for his girl. Maybe he was right as Waymond has served his spouse with divorce papers. Evelyn can’t accept daughter Joy’s lesbianism or girlfriend Becky (Tallie Medel). This causes Joy (Stephanie Hsu) to rebel in ways both small and, as we’ll soon learn, hugely reality altering.

This family baggage is all brought to a cluttered cubicle manned with authority by Deirdre (Jamie Lee Curtis), an IRS agent. She takes her auditing duties very seriously and doesn’t like Evelyn’s spin about her washer and dryer location. Everything quickly gets weirder than the awards on Deirdre’s desk (you’ll see). The lackadaisical Waymond seemingly has a personality transplant into some sort of a super spy. Now identifying as Alpha Waymond, he explains to his perplexed wife that he’s come from an alternative world called the Alphaverse. In short, there are infinite dimensions (or Multiverses) where these characters exist. They are created by the choices that Evelyn makes. She’s a movie star in one or a chef in another (where we find that raccoon) and so forth. In some, she’s even inanimate objects. One constant is that the villainous Jobu Tapaki is attempting to destroy the Multiverse. And that deadly bad girl is always a version of Joy.

I’ll interrupt this plot description by coming clean and admitting that there’s no way to properly contextualize this movie. Readers of the previous three paragraphs might be scratching their heads and I get it. During the first half hour or so, that’s how I felt. How on Earth do hot dogs for fingers factor in? You have to see it to believe it. And you have to see it.

Kwan and Scheinert take all these wild ingredients and create a feast for movie lovers. There’s a kitchen sink mentality that can initially be overwhelming. Yet as it barrels along, I realized I didn’t want to leave the kitchen. It manages to be lots of stuff at the same time (maybe there’s a better way to say that). This is a tribute to the cinematic legacy of Yeoh, who’s given the role of a lifetime and still shows off her martial arts prowess at age 59. It’s a welcome return to the screen for Huy Quan nearly 40 years after his iconic child performances in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies. For Hsu, this is star making work as the disgruntled daughter and Curtis nails her part as the frumpy and fervent government employee.

When Everything reaches it third act, I was gobsmacked by how moving it became. There are deep themes explored among the wiener digits and badgering cooks. This is about the love and sometimes tough love that families go through. The Daniels go as far to explore meaning of life questions in absurd yet ultimately boldly touching ways. It’s marvelously exhilarating.

**** (out of four)

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 23rd Edition

Elvis has left the top ten predicted nominees in my Best Picture rankings and it’s Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave back in the mix. The good news continues for Leave as it returns to #1 in International Feature Film over its close competitor All Quiet on the Western Front.

While the directing and lead acting derbies remain the same, there are changes in both supporting races. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is back in Supporting Actress over Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness). Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) falls out of the Supporting Actor quintet with Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) moving up.

Another picture increasing its nomination count is Living. I already had Bill Nighy in the Best Actor five and I’m now putting it in Adapted Screenplay while removing White Noise. Living also makes its debut in Costume Design for a total of three nods.

Later this week, I’ll have State of the Race detailed posts on the six major competitions (Picture, Director, the 4 acting contests).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Tár (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)

12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elvis (PR: 9) (-3)

14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Till

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Strange World (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alcarras (PR: 8) (E)

9. Klondike (PR: 6) (-3)

10. EO (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1 . All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Aftershock (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emancipation

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Corsage (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blonde

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-2)

10. X (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Blonde

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 9) (E)

10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Love Is Not Love” from Bros

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fabelmans

Bardo

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (-1)

And that equates to these pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

7 Nominations

Women Talking

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

5 Nominations

Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

4 Nominations

Tár

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living

2 Nominations

Bardo, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 16th Edition

On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.

Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).

I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.

Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.

She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.

In other developments:

    • I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
    • Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
    • With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
    • My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)

12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Till

The Woman King 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Smith, Emancipation 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Broker 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 6) (E)

7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sr. 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Costume Design 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Best Film Editing 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)

8. (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Top Gun: Maverick 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Thirteen Lives

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)

8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nope 

That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Women Talking

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis

5 Nominations

Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness 

2 Nominations

The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise

Halloween Ends Review

One of the most violent moments in Halloween Ends involves an actual record (as in the vinyl variety) skipping and it’s one of the cooler parts of this trilogy ender. There’s also many instances where a record skipping sound effect would’ve been appropriate. As in – what in the world is this movie doing?!?! 

Our final pairing of Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) and Michael Myers after almost four and a half decades features some bewilderingly bad decisions. The odd choices that don’t work stack up higher than the body count. On the plus side, I at least found its unpredictable nature to be more intriguing than most of what occurred in predecessor Halloween Kills. Does that make it better? Probably not. It means neither were of much quality and 2018’s starter was just OK too. That could be the legacy of the 11th, 12th, and 13th overall franchise entries.

In Haddonfield, Illinois in 2019, there were tragedies on the spooky holiday not related to Mr. Myers. Corey (Rohan Campbell) is babysitting a young boy when their game of hide and seek takes an unplanned head banging turn. Though accidental in nature, Corey is looked upon as a pariah by the townspeople four years later. He does find a sympathetic figure in Allyson (Andi Matichak), granddaughter of Laurie who is accustomed to grief. Their blossoming romance concerns Grandma, who notices something is off with Corey in a way that reminds her of her tormentor (who’s been AWOL).

This previous paragraph could beg your question: why is a dude who accidentally offed a kid and his strange relationship with Allyson getting so much attention? Well, it’s what Halloween Ends is about for quite a while. On that level, there are problems. First and foremost, any character development of Allyson from the first two features is slashed as she inexplicably falls for Corey in about five minutes. I’m not asking for realism in this genre, but this romance is a badly developed one.

Myers is often a supporting player in Ends along with Laurie (though she has more to do than her bedridden hospital appearance in Kills). Instead we have the potential Natural Born Killers like union of Corey/Allyson and the former dealing with boring high school bullies and his domineering mother. What we expect from a Halloween flick, eh??

Truth be told, my interest piqued a little when I realized David Gordon Green and his three cowriters (including Danny McBride) were going off the rails. The diversionary tactics mostly stall. By the time we get to the showdown between Laurie and Myers, it seems almost anticlimactic. Even though this trilogy ignores everything after 1978’s brilliant original, we’ve kinda been there and done that with 1998’s Halloween: H2O. 

Curtis brings the tough survivor attitude that we’ve witnessed before and it helps in the final act. Campbell truly is the lead character and his performance is shaky at best. I’m not sure I buy the “ends” part of the title though Laurie and Michael’s saga does appear to have reached its conclusion. Maybe The Shape will take another form someday in the reboot/requel/prequel or whatever term comes next. The mediocrity of this three-arch journey dies here.

** (out of four)

October 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Horror should rule the box office with Halloween Ends debuting and Smile continuing its impressive run. Jamie Lee Curtis’s alleged final battle with Michael Myers is the only new release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Halloween Ends Box Office Prediction

Predecessor Halloween Kills from last year made considerably less out of the gate than its predecessor from 2018. Even with a simultaneous release on Peacock (same as Kills), I will give Ends a start in the mid to high 40s. That’s on pace with Kills. 

Smile should easily hold the #2 spot after a very sturdy hold in its sophomore outing (more on that below). Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (after a unimpressive opening) may experience a high 30s second weekend fall while The Woman King and bomb Amsterdam round out the top five.

Here’s how I see it:

1. Halloween Ends

Predicted Gross: $47.6 million

2. Smile

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

4. The Woman King

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. Amsterdam

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (October 7-9)

I expected Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile to take a bigger bite out of the charts and open in first place. That didn’t occur as the family friendly musical took in $11.4 million for second place. This is well below my prediction of $17.6 million.

That’s because Smile had a remarkable hold (especially for its genre) at $18.4 million. I was lower at $13.3 million. The low budget Paramount scare fest has amassed $50 million in ten days and looks like a solid contender to make nine digits domestically.

Despite the star power of Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, and many more, David O. Russell’s critically lambasted Amsterdam was a dud with $6.4 million, under my $8.4 million take. Look for this see a drop in the mid 50s (at least) and sink fast.

The Woman King was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $4.7 million) and it’s reached $54 million total.

Don’t Worry Darling rounded out the top five with $3.5 million (I was right there with $3.4 million) for $38 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Halloween Ends Box Office Prediction

The culmination of this iteration of Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) battling  Michael Myers arrives on October 14th with Halloween Ends. Said to be Curtis’s final appearance in the 44-year-old franchise (though I’m sure Myers will manage to return in some form), David Gordon Green is back directing along with cowriter Danny McBride. It comes a year after Halloween Kills and four years behind Halloween which began the trilogy. It’s the 13th overall entry in the series overall. Costars include James Jude Courtney and OG Nick Castle doubling up again as the iconic slasher, Andi Matichak, Will Patton, and Kyle Richards.

2018’s Halloween was a juggernaut with a $76 million opening and $159 million eventual domestic haul. Kills still killed, but to a lesser degree with a $49 million start and $92 million overall take. Like its predecessor, Ends will be simultaneously available on Peacock.

In addition to the streaming option that could siphon away viewers, horror fans have had plenty to enjoy lately (Barbarian and Smile for example). That said, there’s obviously a built-in base here.

I do expect diminishing returns though not close to the disparity between 2018 and 2021. Mid to high 40s is where I see it and considering the reported $20 million budget, that’s a profitable cut for Universal.

Halloween Ends opening weekend prediction: $47.6 million