Tag: Willem Dafoe

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 17th Edition

It’s been two weeks since I’ve made Oscar predictions and it’s fair to say a lot has happened since then. The show never did find a host, but a host of significant precursors happened. There were the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The Directors Guild named their five nominees and they typically nail four of the five eventual nominees in that race. The last 14 days of action have changed my #1 rankings in some very big categories:

  • After consistently being ranked at #1, A Star Is Born now falls to second behind Roma.
  • Keeping with the theme, Christian Bale’s work in Vice vaults to first in Actor ahead of Bradley Cooper in Star.
  • Once again, a Star dips from the top spot as Glenn Close (The Wife) is first in Actress above Lady Gaga.
  • After Globe and Critics victories, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse is #1 in Animated Feature instead of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.

You can can read all the rankings below and on Sunday, I will reveal my final picks for nominees ahead of Tuesday morning’s announcements!

Best Picture

1. Roma (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Green Book (PR: 4)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Black Panther (PR: 6)

6. The Favourite (PR: 3)

7. Vice (PR: 8)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. First Man (PR: 9)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)

12. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

13. First Reformed (PR: 15)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Eighth Grade

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

7. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Best Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 10)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

10. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: 10)

9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

7. Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 9)

10. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Hate U Give

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. First Reformed (PR: 4)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Cold War (PR: 10)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

10. Private Life (PR: 8)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 4)

5. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Capernaum (PR: 5)

7. The Guilty (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse (PR: 2)

2. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 8)

8. The Grinch (PR: 7)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 10)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. RBG (PR: 6)

4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 4)

5. Shirkers (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Minding the Gap (PR: 3)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

8. On Her Shoulders (PR: 10)

9. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 4)

7. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Cold War (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. The Rider (PR: 9)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Roma (PR: 5)

4. First Man (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

5. Border (PR: 3)

6. Suspiria (PR: 7)

7. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 8)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 7)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Black Panther (PR: 3)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 1)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)

8. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 7)

10. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Vice (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Ready Player One

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

5. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. “OYAHYTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)

And that equates to the following movies getting these numbers when it comes to nominations:

10 Nominations

A Star Is Born, The Favourite

9 Nominations

Black Panther, First Man, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice

3 Nominations

Bohemian Rhapsody, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

Cold War, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Burning, Crazy Rich Asians, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Never Look Away, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Golden Globe Winner Predictions

The highest profile Oscar precursor airs this Sunday with Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh sharing hosting duties. That means it’s time to roll out my predictions on who and what will win in the film categories. Truth be told, some of these races are fairly easy to pick. Others… not so much. Let’s break each category down with my final picks on the victors.

Best Drama

The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born

It was an interesting decision for Warner Bros. to place Star here instead of in Musical/Comedy. Even with that, I believe anything else winning would be an upset (BlacKkKlansman may have the best remote shot). Star is looked at as a soft front-runner at the big show down the line. I feel a win here will help solidify that.

Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born

Best Musical/Comedy

The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice

Unlike Drama, this race is considerably tougher to project. Vice received the most nominations of any picture and that could mean something. However, critical reaction has been more mixed than originally anticipated. Mary Poppins Returns now seems to be a legitimate question mark as to Oscar inclusion for Picture and the competition is steep. The reward for Crazy Rich Asians is its nomination.

So, for me, this comes down to Green Book and The Favourite and it’s seriously a coin flip. I am giving a tiny edge to Green Book since it received a directing nomination, unlike The Favourite. 

Predicted Winner: Green Book

Best Director

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)

A win for Cooper or Lee is not out of the question, but Cuaron is the odds on favorite (as he is for the Academy). Roma was not eligible for inclusion in Drama since it’s a foreign pic. It will (spoiler alert for below!) be honored there and here.

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

Best Actor (Drama)

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

The Best Actor drama race comes down to two performers who used their musical skills to dramatic effect: Cooper and Malek. I would not at all be surprised to see Malek’s Freddie Mercury pick up the trophy, but I’ll say the Star love extends here.

Predicted Winner: Cooper

Best Actress (Drama)

The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)

Not long ago, the Globes bestowed Lady Gaga with an unexpected win for her TV work in “American Horror Story”. If they did that, I’ll say they honor her here for her breakthrough film role. Close is the only actress that provides potential competition.

Predicted Winner: Gaga

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

If the Hollywood Foreign Press goes crazy for Green Book, Mortensen could be a benefactor. Yet I suspect this is the most obvious category to give Vice a win for Bale’s acclaimed performance.

Predicted Winner: Bale

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), Charlize Theron (Tully), Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

This is Blunt v. Colman. With Poppins not quite getting all the box office/critics love that was expected, I lean Colman.

Predicted Winner: Colman

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

The HFPA has had shockers in this race… Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals being a recent example. This is a tricky one. Other than Rockwell, I could see any name being called. I’m tempted to pick Grant, but I’ll go with Ali for a more safe choice (especially since it was Taylor-Johnson that unexpectedly beat him in 2016 for his Oscar-winning part in Moonlight).

Predicted Winner: Ali

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

These are the five women I currently have down for Oscar nods. I suspect The Favourite ladies will cancel themselves out. Foy would be an upset. Could the several Vice nods mean Adams is a factor? It certainly could, but I believe King’s performance in Beale (not withstanding her SAG snub) will emerge.

Predicted Winner: King

Best Screenplay

The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice

Unlike the Oscar, the Globes do not divide this race between adapted and original screenplays. A Roma or Book win is feasible, but I’ll say The Favourite is the choice in this case.

Predicted Winner: The Favourite

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters

As already discussed, this is going to be Roma. Not much left to say.

Predicted Winner: Roma

Best Animated Feature Film

The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

It’s generally not wise to bet against Pixar and Incredibles 2 stands an excellent shot. I’m thinking the Globes may go against the grain though as Spidey is peaking at the right time with its very recent raves.

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Original Score

The Nominees: Black Panther, First Man, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place

Once again, I’m tempted to go with Disney and their iconic nanny as this is the only musical on here. However, I’ll say Justin Hurwitz’s acclaimed score for First Man lands the win.

Predicted Winner: First Man

Best Original Song

The Nominees: “All the Stars” from Black Panther, “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin, “Requiem for a Private War” from A Private War, “Revelation” from Boy Erased, “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

It was unexpected that Poppins made no showing here (part of the reason I’m picking against it in Score). Regardless, there is an extremely obvious front-runner here and it’s Cooper and Gaga’s duet.

Predicted Winner: “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

My projections give Star a bright evening with four victories, with The Favourite, Green Book, and Roma all picking up two. I’ll have analysis up shortly after the ceremony as to how I did. Stay tuned!

 

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: January 3rd Edition

We are now 19 days away from Oscar nominations as the major precursors are set to air in short order. It begins with the Golden Globes on Sunday (look for my winner predictions for that ceremony on the blog tomorrow). My updated rankings this week reflect the following changes:

  • Emily Blunt’s starring role in Mary Poppins Returns is back in my predicted top five, ousting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma
  • In Documentary Feature, RBG falls out of my nominees for the first time and makes way for Shirkers
  • In Editing, it’s Black Panther in for BlacKkKlansman. This contributes to my tally of Panther getting the most nominations of any picture for the first time (over A Star Is Born)
  • In Makeup and Hairstyling, Border crosses the top 3 with Mary Queen of Scots on the outside looking in

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)

13. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

14. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

15. First Reformed (PR: 15)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

10. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Viola Davis, Widows

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 7)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 10)

10. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 9)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

10. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Guilty (PR: 6)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 4)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)

10. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. Minding the Gap (PR: 4)

4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

5. Shirkers (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. RBG (PR: 5)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 6)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)

10. On Her Shoulders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dark Money 

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Black Panther (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

8. Widows (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cold War (PR: 6)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

9. The Rider (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

9. Colette (PR: 10)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (PR: 2)

2. Black Panther (PR: 1)

3. Border (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

7. Suspiria (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

5. Roma (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 7)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 5)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 10)

8. Roma (PR: 6)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 4)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 8)

8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 7)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

10. Vice (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 10)

9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

And that breaks down to these movies getting the following number of nods:

12 Nominations

Black Panther

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Roma

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 27th Edition

It’s my final Oscar predictions of 2018 as the nominations draw closer (with the Golden Globes airing next Sunday)! And, yes, we’re seeing some changes:

  • First Man is back in my predicted nine with Mary Poppins Returns out. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to rise and is inching closer to possible inclusion.
  • In Best Director, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) is in with Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) out.
  • In Best Actress, Yalitza Aparicio returns to my top 5 with Emily Blunt’s title role in Mary Poppins Returns falling.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 5)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

13. A Quiet Place (PR: 14)

14. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

15. First Reformed (PR: 15)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 9)

8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

9. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 10)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

7. First Man (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Widows (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

5. First Reformed (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Private Life (PR: 8)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Sorry to Bother You

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 5)

5. Capernaum (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Guilty (PR: 8)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

4. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 8)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

4. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

5. RBG (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

7. Shirkers (PR: 8)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 10)

10. Dark Money (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Green Book (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

10. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cold War (PR: 5)

7. Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 5)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)

7. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Vice (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Border (PR: 5)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

7. Suspiria (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Roma (PR: 4)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

7. Ready Player One (PR: 5)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 8)

10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 4)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 2)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)

8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 9)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 7)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 6)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet 

And that adds up to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born, Black Panther

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man, Roma

6 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 20th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions are here again and there’s been some developments to discuss:

  • Earlier this week, a number of categories released their shortlists: Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Original Score, Original Song. As you’ll see, those picks reflect the new landscape for those races.
  • I’m going back to picking nine Best Picture selections and that means that First Man is out for the first time.
  • Black Panther is a predicted nominee in Adapted Screenplay, making its inaugural appearance. It replaces Crazy Rich Asians.
  • In Original Screenplay, Eighth Grade is back in over Vice.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Green Book (PR: 4)

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. First Man (PR: 10)

11. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)

14. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

15. First Reformed (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Crazy Rich Asians

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

9. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

10. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparacio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 9)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

10. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Natalie Portman, Vox Lux

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Widows (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. Green Book (PR: 2)

4. First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

10. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Capernaum (PR: 5)

5. Burning (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

8. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ayka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Girl

Border

I Am Not a Witch

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 7)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 9)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 8)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 4)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 3)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 9)

8. Shirkers (PR: 8)

9. Dark Money (PR: 7)

10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Science Fair

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. First Man (PR: 2)

4. The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk 

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Cold War (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Vice

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 8)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Colette (PR: 6)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Vice (PR: 3)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

5. Border (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

7. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Colette

A Star Is Born

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

4. Roma (PR: 5)

5. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 5)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Incredibles 2

Aquaman

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

A Quiet Place

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. BlackKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Incredibles 2

Colette

Suspiria 

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

9. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 8)

10. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex

And that gives these pictures the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

A Star Is Born, The Favourite

9 Nominations

Black Panther

8 Nominations

First Man, Mary Poppins Returns

7 Nominations

Roma

6 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Cold War, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs, Ready Player One, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 14th Edition

A day late, but my weekly Oscar predictions are up for your review! Enjoy…

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

7. Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Vice (PR: 7)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

13. First Reformed (PR: 12)

14. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 10)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

3. Sam Ellliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marina De Tavira, Roma

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. First Man (PR: 5)

8. Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. Widows (PR: 7)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Vice (PR: 4)

5. First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

8. Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Private Life (PR: 7)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ben Is Back

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 6)

5. Capernaum (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

7. Girl (PR: 5)

8. Border (PR: 8)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

7. Early Man (PR: 8)

8. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. RBG (PR: 4)

4. Free Solo (PR: 3)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Shirkers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 8)

10. Science Fair (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Quincy

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Green Book (PR: 9)

7. Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 7)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Vice (PR: 10)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 3)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. Roma (PR: 5)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bohemian Rhapsody 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

3. Vice (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

7. Colette (PR: 6)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Deadpool 2

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 5)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

8. Aquaman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

7. Black Panther (PR: 9)

8. Isle of Dogs (PR: 6)

9. Colette (PR: 7)

10. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

5. “Girl at the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

8. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born 

And that equates to the following films getting these numbers for nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, First Man

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Burning, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, RBG, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’

 

Aquaman Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (12/18/18): Update here as I’m increasing my $74.3 million estimate up to $77.3 million.

We don’t have Vincent Chase from TV’s “Entourage” starring in it as portrayed on that show years ago with James Cameron directing. Yet DC Comics hero Aquaman finally gets his stand-alone experience next weekend. Instead it’s Jason Momoa reprising his role as the waterlogged warrior after first seeing him in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Justice League. James Wan, who made the Conjuring entries and Furious 7, directs. The supporting cast includes Amber Heard, Willem Dafoe, Patrick Wilson, Dolph Lundgren, and Nicole Kidman. In a bit of irony, Julie Andrews has a voice-over while Mary Poppins Returns serves as competition over the pre-Christmas frame.

Aquaman marks the sixth DC Extended Universe feature that began in 2013 with Man of Steel. The lowest grossing opener of the series was Justice League in November of last year with $93 million. All others (Steel, BvS, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) took in over $100 million. Forecasts and expectations aren’t as high here, but Warner Bros is certainly hoping for a sizable hit. The film opened in China last weekend to robust results. Reviews are fairly solid with a current Tomato rating of 78%.

No previous DC Universe production has premiered in the crowded holiday month of December. Direct competition comes from both Poppins (family crowd) and Bumblebee (action crowd). With Disney’s famous nanny getting a two-day jump on Wednesday, Aquaman appears in good position to grab the #1 spot.

My feeling is that it will do so with a gross in the mid 70s.

Aquaman opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million

For my Mary Poppins Returns prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/10/mary-poppins-returns-box-office-prediction/

For my Bumblebee prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/11/bumblebee-box-office-prediction/

For my Second Act prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/14/second-act-box-office-prediction/

For my Welcome to Marwen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/15/welcome-to-marwen-box-office-prediction/

2018 SAG Awards Predictions

Yet another major precursor enters the fold tomorrow when the Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced. Unlike other awards shows, it’s wise to remember that this ceremony is solely voted upon by the thespians who make up SAG. That means no Director race.

More importantly, it means “Best Picture” does not exist. The big prize is Best Ensemble. That designation favors films with large casts. Let’s break down the five major categories with predictions and an alternate and wild card, shall we?

Best Ensemble

As mentioned, big casts help. That would seem to favor something like If Beale Street Could Talk with its sprawling one, as well as Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. Another pic fitting the bill is Vice. As long as the guild members saw it in time, I think it stands an excellent shot.

A Star Is Born is more of a question mark. While it could be looked at as a soft front-runner for Best Picture (along with Roma, which I don’t believe factors here), the actors garnering attention are Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, and Sam Elliot. While I believe they will be individually noticed, I’m questioning whether the picture itself is named here. The Favourite (even with it also being focused mostly on three actresses) likely has a better chance. There’s certainly other possibilities and they include BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, and Widows (though it’s seen its awards fortunes dwindle).

Predicted Nominees

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Vice

Alternate – A Star Is Born

Wild Card – Widows

Best Actor

The nominees for Actor here are a solid predictor for Oscar inclusion. In 2015 and 2017, four of the performers here went on to be honored by the Academy. In 2016, it was all five. I’m going with the 5 men I see as most likely to score an Oscar nod at this juncture – with a sneaking suspicion that Ryan Gosling for replace one of then.

Predicted Nominees

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Alternate – Ryan Gosling, First Man

Wild Card – Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Best Actress

There’s not quite as much match with Oscar and SAG here – three in 2015 and 2016 and four last year. As has been discussed many times on this blog, Best Actress is packed in 2018. The potential for a “surprise nominee” here is very real. I feel the need to pick one and I’m going with Toni Collette in Hereditary over the more probable Academy nominee Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns.

Predicted Nominees

Glenn Close, The Wife

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Wild Card – Viola Davis, Widows

Best Supporting Actor

We had an outlier in 2015 when only two of the SAG nominees here got Oscar attention. For the past two years, it’s been four. If there’s a real shocker here, look out for names like Daniel Kaluuya (Widows) or Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give). I’m not willing to be that bold with my picks though.

Predicted Nominees

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Sam Rockwell, Vice

Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

The SAG/Oscar match was four in 2015, five in 2016, and three for 2017. I’m estimating the five performers here match last week’s Golden Globe nominations. If there’s a surprise, look for Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), Natalie Portman (Vox Lux), or Marina de Tavira (Roma).

Predicted Nominees

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

And there you have it! I’ll have reaction up tomorrow after the announcements are made.

 

The Critics Choose Their Buffet

The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their nominees for the Critics Choice Awards today, with the show itself airing January 13. Unlike some precursors, it truly can be a window of what’s to come with Oscar nods… with a significant caveat.

This particular awards ceremony lists six to seven performers and directors in those races. Therefore we know one or two nominees won’t make the cut for the gold statue. As for Best Picture, they do name ten and that’s the highest number the Academy can honor. Critics Choice has a large number of categories, but we shall focus on the top six in today’s analysis and use the last three ceremonies for historical context.

Best Picture

Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

In 2015, all eight Oscar nominated films were named here. In 2016, it was eight of the nine Academy honorees named, with Hidden Figures missing the Critics cut. Last year, it was 8/9 again with Phantom Thread as the outlier.

The 10 nominees this year exactly match my current top 10 Oscar possibilities. These selections serve as potential bad news for titles such as Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, Crazy Rich Asians and Widows. If any of them make it in, First Man is likely the most vulnerable.

Best Director

Nominees: Damien Chazelle (First Man), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)

Three and five and four. Those are the respective number of nominated directors here from 2014-2016 that made the Academy cut.

The story here is the surprising omission of Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk. Whether that is a sign of something to come is questionable. Chazelle, Farrelly, and McKay might have helped themselves a bit today.

Best Actor

Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Ryan Gosling (First Man), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

2015 saw a five for five match while the last two years have seen four Critics nominees receive Oscar love. As in the previous two races, First Man got a boost yet again for the box office disappointment that had previously underwhelmed in precursors. This list not including Robert Redford’s work in The Old Man & The Gun could mean the end of the road for his potential inclusion.

Best Actress

Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Glenn Close (The Wife), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Simple math here. Over the past three years, the five women listed for the Best Actress Oscar have all been mentioned here. By the way, the three winners match as well.

This year is crowded for Best Actress (more so than Actor). Today’s nominations could be best news for Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back), Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots), and Rosamund Pike (A Private War).

As for actual nominees, Aparicio and Collette helped their momentum to potentially dislodge one or two of the others.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born), Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

Unlike the last race, 2015 and 2016 saw four Critics recipients here get Academy attention. Last year, it was three. While Jordan helped himself, we could still see Sam Rockwell (Vice) or possibly Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite) in the mix.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Five for five match three years ago and four for five the last two years. Right now, these six women are my top six Oscar contenders. If there’s a name not here that could sneak in for Academy voters, perhaps it’s Natalie Portman in Vox Lux, though it’s weak limited release debut over the past weekend doesn’t help at all.

It never lets up this time of year with Awards prognosticating. SAG nods will be unveiled Wednesday. I’ll have predictions up in short order with reaction up soon after!

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 6th Edition

We’ve had Golden Globe nominations this morning and AFI’s top ten list on Tuesday, but my top 10 Best Picture picks for Oscar glory have stayed remarkably the same. In case you missed my recap of those major precursors, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/06/2018-golden-globe-nominations-reaction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/04/afi-picks-favourites/

Let’s get to the predictions, shall we?

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Vice (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 13)

12. First Reformed (PR: 11)

13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Widows (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

10. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Vice

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 10)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)

10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: !)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)

10. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Boy Erased

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 4)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. First Reformed (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

7. Private Life (PR: 8)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

10. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mule

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Capernaum (PR: 4)

5. Girl (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 5)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

8. Border (PR: 7)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Guilty 

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 3)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

8. Early Man (PR: 7)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tito and the Birds

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. Free Solo (PR: 3)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Dark Money (PR: 8)

8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

9. Science Fair (PR: 10)

10. Quincy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amazing Grace

Best Film Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Black Panther (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 8)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

9. Green Book (PR: 7)

10. Widows (PR: 6)

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

3. First Man (PR: 2)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 7)

8. Widows (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colette

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Colette (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

3. Vice (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

9. Deadpool 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

A Wrinkle in Time

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 2)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Sound Mixing 

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 8)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

A Wrinkle in Time

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Colette (PR: 7)

8. Widows (PR: 6)

9. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Roma

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 9)

7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 5)

8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)

10. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Gravity” from Free Solo 

And that correlates to the following movies getting this number of nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite, First Man

9 Nominations

Black Panther

8 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Vice

4 Nominations

Green Book

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, RBG

1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Girl, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Crazy Rich Asians, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’