Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M
Big George Foreman enters the box office ring on April 28th from George Tillman Jr. (who recently directed Notorious and The Hate U Give). The sports biopic stars Khris Davis as the two-time boxing champ and grill master. Jasmine Mathews, John Magaro, Sullivan Jones, and Forest Whitaker are in the supporting cast.
Sony Pictures is hoping audiences are ready for another tale of the sweet science shortly after the success of Creed III. With a lack of star power and not much in the way of buzz, Foreman may struggle to reach $10 million in the first weekend. I’ll project it falls a bit shy for a performance that’s no knockout. It does get credit for having a ridiculously lengthy full title – The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World.
Big George Foreman opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
For my Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret prediction, click here:
When King Richard came out in November, the preceding reviews and buzz pointed to a likelihood in the Best Actor race for this year’s Oscars – Will Smith would be on his way to his first gold statue. Playing Richard Williams, patriarch of the family that gave us tennis royalty Venus and Serena Williams, the film provides us multiple Academy bait scenes for the actor.
Mr. Smith has gone to the Oscars before as a nominee. 20 years ago, he was up for Ali (where to lost to Denzel Washington in Training Day). 15 years back, he scored his second nod for The Pursuit of Happyness (coming up short to Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland).
This time around felt different. Obviously Smith is a beloved figure across the entertainment spectrum from movies to music to TV and he’s had blockbuster upon blockbuster in the last quarter century. Richard seemed like the right role for him to get that Oscar. Third time’s the charm.
That could still absolutely happen. In fact, I still have him ranked #1 in the Actor derby where he’s been perched for months. Yet I must admit, doubts are creeping in.
Why? A couple of reasons. First off, King Richard underwhelmed at the box office and that’s being kind. The sports drama has taken in less than $15 million. Part of the reason has to be due to its simultaneous release on HBO Max, but there’s no sugarcoating that it’s a subpar performance.
Secondly, there’s the rise of Benedict Cumberbatch in Netflix’s The Power of the Dog. The actor (who’s about to land his second nod after 2014’s The Imitation Game) is becoming the critical favorite and he’s picking up hardware from their associations. It also helps that Cumberbatch has been highly visible in 2021 with four pics (including financial behemoth Spider-Man: No Way Home).
In that sense, the 2021 Best Actor race is starting to look like what we witnessed in 2020. As an aside, I do see this a two-person competition at the moment (though Andrew Garfield from Tick Tick, Boom! may have a remote shot). There’s a head vs. heart vibe emerging. Last year, the sentimental favorite was the late Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The performance that was equally if not more hailed by critics came from Anthony Hopkins in The Father. And it was Hopkins who ultimately and somewhat surprisingly prevailed.
Could we see a repeat in 2021 and a slight upset by Cumberbatch over the favored Smith? Stay tuned…
When I did my first ranked Oscar predictions in the Best Actress race on August 27, 2020 – I had Jennifer Hudson’s portrayal of Aretha Franklin in Respect ranked fifth. The biopic ended up getting delayed due to COVID. Now it’s out on Friday (August 13). My initial two weeks of Academy rankings for 2021 has had Hudson pegged in fourth while not including the film itself in the 25 possibilities for Best Picture.
The review embargo lifted this evening and… well, I might be onto something. The prevalent theory has been that Respect could be a one race player in the major categories. This is similar to what we saw two years ago when Renee Zellweger took Best Actress as Judy Garland in Judy and last year when Andra Day was nominated for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
Early critical reaction is mixed though Hudson is being widely praised. It was 15 years ago that the former American Idol singer won gold in Supporting Actress for her show stopping work in Dreamgirls. She hasn’t been on the Academy’s radar since. Respect, as anticipated, could easily change that. Nothing in the write-ups indicates this will a Picture hopeful. Same goes for the supporting cast. I have had Audra McDonald in the lower rungs of possibilities in supporting for the past two weeks. Don’t expect to see her name when I update my forecast on Thursday.
Costume Design is another possibility, but don’t be surprised at all to see Hudson as the lone representation here. And that’s far from guaranteed. There’s a lot of leading performances yet to be seen that could contend: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being theRicardos), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Kristen Stewart (Spencer), and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) are just some. Emilia Jones (CODA) and Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World) represent two turns already seen that could find themselves in the mix.
Bottom line: Hudson is absolutely more than just a little bit of a factor in this race, but we have to see what transpires over festival season and the rest of the year. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
15 years after her Oscar winning supporting turn in Dreamgirls, Jennifer Hudson is Aretha Franklin in the biopic Respect. Out August 13, the film marks the directorial debut of Liesl Tommy. The supporting cast includes Forest Whitaker, Marlon Wayans, Audra McDonald, Marc Maron, Tituss Burgess, and Mary J. Blige.
Hudson is hoping for some additional awards respect for this high-profile turn. Originally slated for a Christmas 2020 release, the pic was delayed due to COVID. Sporting a reported $55 million budget, it is now coming out around the same as the Chadwick Boseman led James Brown bio Get On Up. It opened to $13.4 million back in 2014. Will the Queen of Soul movie manage to match The Godfather of Soul’s?
With Delta variant challenges, I’m a little skeptical. My hunch is that Respect falls just a little bit under $10 million as it hopes future positive word-of-mouth keeps it around in subsequent weekends.
Brad Furman’s City of Lies, originally scheduled for 2018, was delayed and the reason why depends on what you read. It could be because the LAPD didn’t want it to come out based on their bad behavior with the case it involves. Or it could be due to recent bad behavior of its own leading man. City of Lies itself isn’t a bad movie. It just doesn’t doesn’t add a whole lot to a well covered story told in other mediums.
The film recounts the still unsolved homicide investigation of The Notorious B.I.G. thru the lens of Detective Russell Poole (Johnny Depp) and journalist Jack (Forest Whitaker). When the murder occurred in the spring of 1997 in Los Angeles, this was in the aftermath of the 1992 riots and the O.J. Simpson trial. It was also, of course, mere months following the killing of another rap superstar Tupac Shakur.
Based on Randall Sullivan’s book LAbyrinth, the picture puts forth the theory that LAPD officers were deeply involved in the plot to take out Brooklyn’s legendary rapper in conjunction with Death Row Records and its founder Suge Knight. Yet with the aforementioned events in Southern California, Detective Poole’s efforts to expose the corruption was buried.
For those with an interest in this nearly 25-year-old unsolved mystery, none of this is new information. It’s been told in various documentaries and novels. The two lead characters collaborate some 18 years after Biggie’s death. Poole’s earlier investigation (seen in flashbacks) has led to the downfall of his career and family life. Jack’s previous journalistic writings on the case posited mostly discounted speculation that Biggie ordered Tupac’s fateful ride on Las Vegas Boulevard. He’s preparing a 20 year retrospective of the murders and Poole’s hypotheses are increasing in their validity (despite the LAPD’s continued obstruction).
Depp and Whitaker are two actors who can chew scenery. Both of their performances here are more on the subtle side and they’re both solid. City of Lies, unfortunately too often, is a subdued record of an urgent subject. Late in the proceedings, there’s a scene where Biggie’s mother Voletta Wallace plays herself. It’s quite well-done and is a brief and powerful reminder of her unending search for answers. Had the individuals involved not been named Biggie and Tupac and Suge Knight, the pic would mostly feel no different than a typical episode of a police procedural. Ms. Wallace’s late appearance keeps us mindful of the real cost involved with justice delayed.
Political legal drama The Mauritanian, which tells of the true life trial of a Guantanamo Bay prisoner, hits theaters on February 19th and its embargo lifted this week. Kevin Macdonald, who directed Forest Whitaker to a Best Actor Oscar in The Last King of Scotland, is behind the camera with a cast headlined by Jodie Foster, Tahar Rahim, Shailene Woodley, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Zachary Levi.
Critical reaction thus far is quite mixed with a 55% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Distributor STX Entertainment has already announced the category placements of Rahim for lead actor and two-time winner Foster for Supporting Actress. They are the two performers getting the most praise for their work.
However, the subject matter and the so-so feedback will present a challenge for The Mauritanian to reach audiences and awards voters. Two years ago, the similarly themed The Report had a much better Tomatoes rating (82%) and a thought that Annette Bening could contend in Supporting Actress. That never materialized and I’d be surprised if this ends up being a player in a couple of months. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have arrived at Week #2 for my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. I do so as the Venice Film Festival has kicked off with Telluride and Toronto slated to virtually get underway in the coming days. That means quite a few Oscar Watch posts will be up in short order, including for several of the features predicted below.
Since last Thursday, I’ve written only two Watch entries. Mulan isn’t likely to be a factor in any of the big races, but it could definitely contend for some technical categories. The forthcoming horror pic Antebellum didn’t impress critics and won’t be mentioned again here. If you would like to peruse those posts, you can do so here:
When I wrote my initial guesstimates one week ago, it was on the following day that movie lovers across the globe were hit with tragic news. The loss of Chadwick Boseman to colon cancer has shocked and saddened all of us. Despite his acclaimed performances in 42, Get On Up, and his iconic work as Black Panther, Mr. Boseman has yet to receive a nomination from the Academy. Last Thursday, I already had him listed at #2 in Supporting Actor for the upcoming Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He is now listed first as is his costar Viola Davis in Best Actress.
Here are some other developments of note:
I am still higher on Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (which also featured Boseman) than some other prognosticators. I have it listed for inclusion in Best Picture, Actor (Delroy Lindo), and Original Screenplay. However, its numbers have fallen a bit and I am taking Spike Lee out of my Director five.
My estimated eight Best Picture nominees has remained intact with some shifting in the rankings.
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Paul Greengrass (News of the World) are in for Director with the aforementioned Spike Lee and Francis Lee (Ammonite) out.
The five in Actress has not changed. In Actor, I’ve made the move to take Bill Murray’s performance in On the Rocks and put it in the supporting field. That allows for Tom Hanks (News of the World) to move up. In general, I have soured a bit on Rocks. You’ll see below that its numbers have dropped precipitously.
Supporting Actress also includes the same five women and that’s also the case with Supporting Actor.
Though I don’t have it in the top five, I’ve corrected French Exit to be listed in Adapted Screenplay as opposed to Original. Soul replaces The French Dispatch in Original for the moment while The Father vaults over West Side Story in Adapted.
As you’ll see, there’s plenty of new faces being mentioned for the first time that didn’t make the list last week and others who have dropped.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Dune (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
6. Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 16)
10. Soul (PR: 14)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
13. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
15. Minari (PR: 18)
16. The Father (PR: 17)
17. Annette (PR: 13)
18. Stillwater (PR: 21)
19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 22)
20. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Tenet (PR: 15)
22. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 24)
24. French Exit (PR: 25)
25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
C’Mon C’Mon
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
10. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
11. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 11)
13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
14. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Christopher Nolan, Tenet (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Leos Carax, Annette
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 11)
10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 8)
11. Marion Cotillard, Annette
12. Julianne Moore, The Glorias (PR: 9)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 15)
14. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 13)
15. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
8. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 13)
9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 8)
10. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)
13. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
14. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 9)
15. Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (moved to Supporting Actor)
Timothee Chalamet, Dune
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 14)
8. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire (PR: 8)
14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 11)
15. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
8. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 6)
9, Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 12)
10. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Lucas Hedges, French Exit (PR: 9)
14. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
15. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Oscar Isaac, Dune
Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Ammonite (PR: 4)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Stillwater (PR: 11)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 15)
11. Annette (PR: 13)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
13. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
14. Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tenet (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
French Exit (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Dune (PR: 2)
4. The Father (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)
8. West Side Story (PR: 4)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
11. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
12. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9)
13. The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 11)
15. Respect (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it with updated predictions next Thursday!
As is tradition on the blog, my weekly Oscar prediction posts (coming to you each Thursday) kick off in the final weekend of August!
So while I’m following up with my normal Academy Awards speculating schedule, I am doing so in a year that is anything but traditional. The COVID-19 pandemic has tremendously altered release schedules for many pictures. This has left many release dates still uncertain.
Additionally, I have chosen this late August date because it’s usually right before some high-profile film festivals like Toronto, Venice, and Telluride are set to kick off. Some of these fests are continuing to operate in a much different fashion. We will see some of the titles identified below (including Nomadland, Ammonite and One Night in Miami) screen at these virtual competitions in the coming days.
This week, one significant contender had its unveiling for critics and that’s Christopher Nolan’s Tenet. That reaction leads me to believe that it will certainly contend in a half dozen or so technical races, but that a Picture or Directing nod is a bit of a long shot.
Even in a year without the pandemic related challenges, Oscar speculation this early always comes with numerous caveats. They include the following:
Release dates will change and some movies listed here will get pushed back. This sure applies to 2020 and that’s even with the Academy extending eligibility to any features released in January and February of 2021.
There will be pics and performances that come out of nowhere and make their way to the release calendar that aren’t identified here.
Some performances listed in lead will shift to supporting and vice versa. For titles like David Fincher’s Mank, Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch – category placement for their large casts is still a question mark. As an example, there’s lot of potential contenders in The French Dispatch, but it’s impossible to determine who gets the critical shine. For the time being, I’m not listing any of the actors in that particular film.
There will be Original Screenplay hopefuls that turn out to be Adapted and vice versa.
Even with all those caveats, I was able to identify the winners in each of the top 8 categories in both 2018 and 2019. Their numeric placement varied widely. In 2018, I had Best Picture victor Green Book all the way down at 21 of my first initial 25 possibilities. Roma director Alfonso Cuaron, on the other hand, was placed at #2. Bohemian Rhapsody‘s Rami Malek was at #12 in Best Actor with Olivia Colman in The Favourite at 9th in Actress. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) was 9th and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) was 2nd in the supporting fields. Adapted Screenplay winner BlacKkKlansman was in fifth with Original Screenplay recipient Green Book at #11.
As for 2019, Best Picture winner Parasite was originally placed in slot #7 while its director Bong Joon-Ho was fifth. In the lead acting companions, Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) was 6th and Renee Zellweger (Judy) was fifth. In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) was perched at #1 and that never changed. Supporting Actress Laura Dern (Marriage Story) was #2. Adapted Screenplay Jojo Rabbit was fourth and Original Screenplay Parasite was 5th.
So based on history, you’re likely seeing the eventual 2020 Oscar winners somewhere here on these listings. In 2020, though, who really knows?
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Ammonite
6. Dune
7. News of the World
8. West Side Story
Other Possibilities
9. The French Dispatch
10. Hillbilly Elegy
11. On the Rocks
12. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Annette
14. Soul
15. Tenet
16. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
17. The Father
18. Minari
19. C’Mon C’Mon
20. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
21. Stillwater
22. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
23. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
24. Next Goal Wins
25. French Exit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
Other Possibilities:
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
10. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
11. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
12. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Christopher Nolan, Tenet
14. Leos Carax. Annette
15. Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
9. Julianne Moore, The Glorias
10. Marion Cotillard, Annette
11. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
12. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
13. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
14. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
15. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
2. Gary Oldman, Mank
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
8. Adam Driver, Annette
9. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
11. Timothee Chalamet, Dune
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
13. Matt Damon, Stillwater
14. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
15. Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
3. Olivia Colman, The Father
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
7. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
8. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
10. Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
11. Mary J. Blige, Respect
12. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
13. Meryl Streep, The Prom
14. Nicole Kidman, The Prom
15. Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Strathairn, Nomadland
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Burke, Mank
7. Tom Pelphrey, Mank
8. David Alvarez, West Side Story
9. Lucas Hedges, French Exit
10. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
11. Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
12. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
13. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
14. Oscar Isaac, Dune
15. Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. Ammonite
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul
7. On the Rocks
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
9. C’Mon C’Mon
10. Minari
11. Stillwater
12. French Exit
13. Annette
14. Tenet
15. Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland
2. Dune
3. News of the World
4. West Side Story
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father
7. Hillbilly Elegy
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
9. Next Goal Wins
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
11. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
12. The White Tiger
13. One Night in Miami
14. Respect
15. The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it next Thursday, folks! Until then…
And a new day has dawned on this blog of mine as the 2020 Oscar Predictions begin!
To put it mildly, this is a challenge in 2020. The obvious hindrance is the COVID-19 pandemic that has shut theaters down for the past nearly five months and prevented scores of titles from their release.
It doesn’t stop there. I always do my early prediction posts in the later part of August when significant film festivals are about to get underway. The coronavirus has altered that dynamic as well. The Toronto and Venice festivals will operate in a much different fashion with some releases getting remote screenings and you should expect quite a few Oscar Watch posts in the coming weeks. However, it’s not nearly the volume of previous years. I have chosen to push up these early prediction posts because… well, I don’t have much else to write about!
To add to the mayhem – we have understandably seen a year in which release dates are constantly changing. Some of the pictures mentioned here may not see the light of day by February 2021. That, by the way, is the month the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have extended eligibility to for the upcoming ceremony. A good example: Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch (which has seen its date pushed back more than once) is now a TBD release. We’ve grown accustomed to that lately. For this reason, I am not including it in my inaugural round of predictions.
One potential beneficiary to all of this is Netflix. The streaming giant has loaded up on awards contenders for the season. Three of them in particular – David Fincher’s Mank, Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods, and Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7 – boasts multiple performers who could see their work recognized in this particular category. In fact, four of the five early predicted nominees here are for Netflix properties.
As with any other year, these first projections are done with another degree of uncertainty and that’s category placement. It is inevitable that some performances in the supporting field could move to lead and vice versa. These decisions will become clearer as time goes along and will certainly shift my predictions in the future. For instance, Delroy Lindo seems bound for a nod in Da 5 Bloods. The smart money is that he’ll be campaigned for in Best Actor, but it’s in the realm of possibility that he could be a Supporting Actor contender.
Looking back at my early 2019 predictions in this category nearly a year ago, only one of my five projected nominees got through the process. It was, however, the winner with Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. For context, I predict my top 5 and then list ten other possibilities. All four other eventual nominees (Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for The Irishman), were all listed as possibilities.
So… let’s get to it with my very speculative first look at which gentlemen could contend in the supporting field!
I was rewatching Avengers: Endgame over the weekend and it once again struck me how many famous actors are in that thing. I mean… seriously. It’s rather amazing. This got me thinking and yes, current world events may have given me an opportunity to do so:
Just how many performers that have been in Marvel Cinematic Universe entries have won Oscars or been nominated for Oscars? I knew the number would be high, but the answer still astonished me. In fact, you have to back to 1981 for a year where no actor that eventually appeared in the MCU didn’t receive a nomination.
If you count Marvel’s next two pictures (Black Widow, The Eternals) and then count the 23 movies prior that started in 2008 with Iron Man, it encapsulates 110 acting nominations and 20 wins! I am not yet putting Christian Bale in there though he’s rumored to be playing the villain in the fourth Thor flick. I’ll wait for confirmation on that. If you did count Bale, the numbers go to 114 nods and 21 Academy victories.
Due to this research, I’m writing 4 blog posts dedicated to each acting race and we begin with Best Actor:
The leading man category makes up 33 out of the 110 nominations with 6 wins. The victorious gentlemen are as follows:
Jeff Bridges, the main baddie in Iron Man, won in 2009 for Crazy Heart
William Hurt, who appeared in The Incredible Hulk and other MCU titles, took Best Actor in 1985 for Kiss of the Spider Woman
Anthony Hopkins, aka Thor’s Dad, was stage bound in 1991 for his iconic role as Dr. Hannibal Lecter in The Silence of the Lambs
Ben Kingsley, who sparred with Tony Stark in Iron Man 3, is a 1982 recipient in the title role of Gandhi
Michael Douglas, who appeared in both Ant-Man pics, was Best Actor in 1987 for Wall Street
Forest Whitaker, who costarred in Black Panther, took gold in 2006 for The Last King of Scotland
Aside from the winners, here are the other 27 Actor nods:
Iron Man himself, Robert Downey Jr., for 1992’s Chaplin
Terrence Howard, who was in the first Iron Man, for 2005’s Hustle & Flow
Jeff Bridges scored two additional nominations for 1984’s Starman and 2010’s True Grit
Edward Norton, who was Hulk before Mark Ruffalo, for 1998’s American History X
William Hurt, like fellow winner Bridges, also landed two other nods for 1986’s Children of a Lesser God and 1987’s Broadcast News
Don Cheadle, who replaced Terrence Howard in Iron Man 2 and more, for 2004’s Hotel Rwanda
Mickey Rourke, the villain in Iron Man 2, for 2008’s The Wrestler
Anthony Hopkins, following his Lambs victory, was nominated twice more for 1993’s The Remains of the Day and 1995’s Nixon
Tommy Lee Jones, from Captain America: First Avenger, for 2007’s In the Valley of Elah
Jeremy Renner, aka Hawkeye, for his breakthrough role in 2009’s The Hurt Locker
Robert Redford, who was in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, surprisingly only has one acting nod for 1973’s The Sting. He is, however, a twice nominated director and won in 1980 for Ordinary People
Bradley Cooper, Rocket in Guardians of the Galaxy, has been nominated thrice with no wins: 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, 2014’s American Sniper, and 2018’s A Star Is Born
Benedict Cumberbatch, aka Doctor Strange, for 2014’s The Imitation Game
Chiwetel Ejiofor, also in Doctor Strange, for 2013’s 12 Years a Slave
Sylvester Stallone, who popped up in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, for his signature role in 1976’s Rocky
Michael Keaton, the villain in Spider-Man: Homecoming, for 2014’s Birdman
Matt Damon, who had a memorable cameo in Thor: Ragnarok, is twice nominated for 1997’s Good Will Hunting and 2015’s The Martian
Daniel Kaluuya, Black Panther costar, for 2017’s Get Out
Laurence Fishburne, supporting player in Ant-Man and the Wasp, as Ike Turner in 1993’s What’s Love Got to Do With It
Jude Law, from Captain Marvel, for 2003’s Cold Mountain
Whew. And there you have it. I’ll be back at it shortly with the Best Actress nominees who got their Marvel on!
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