Tag: Sandra Hüller

99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Fjord

6. No One Cares

7. All of a Sudden

8. Fatherland

9. The Social Reckoning

10. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

12. A Place in Hell

13. A Long Winter

14. The Entertainment System is Down

15. Being Heumann

16. Cry to Heaven

17. Josephine

18. Werwulf

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

20. Michael

21. Paper Tiger

22. Saturn Return

23. Sense and Sensibility

24. Jack of Spades

25. Behemoth!

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

2. John Goodman, Digger

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

My first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards are underway!

We are not even a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation. These are my opening glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Actress. When I presented my first picks in April of 2025, it produced the most eventual nominees among the quartet of acting races. At this impossibly early stage, I correctly had the eventual winner Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) in the quintet. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were listed in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) was not mentioned.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This inaugural post has Renate Reinsve getting a second nod in a row for Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Julianne Moore (No One Cares) contending for the first time since her victory in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Mikey Madison, I’m projecting 2024’s victor in the category for Anora will be up again for The Social Reckoning. Then there’s Sandra Hüller. She’s a threat to get in for Fatherland or Rose (for which she’s already won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival). At press time, I’ve got her making the cut for the latter. That’s in addition to my forecast that Hüller nabs a Supporting Actress nomination for Digger.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

Sandra Hüller, Rose

Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

Julianne Moore, No One Cares

Renate Reinsve, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Halle Bailey, No One Cares

Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

Claire Foy, Ink

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Michaela Coel, Mother Mary

Olivia Colman, Elsinore

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada 2

Project Hail Mary Box Office Prediction

Project Hail Mary looks to throw down impressive grosses for Amazon MGM when it debuts March 20th. Drew Goddard adapts Andy Weir’s 2021 novel with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directing. The sci-fi adventures stars Ryan Gosling with a supporting cast including Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub.

Critics have complimented the production on its Spielberg vibes with Rotten Tomatoes at 95% and 80 on Metacritic. With a reported budget north of $200 million, the studio is hoping for a high launch. Encouraging early word-of-mouth should assist.

One scenario is that it plays similar to 2015’s The Martian which is also based on a Weir book. That space tale with Matt Damon opened to $54 million. A best case might be closer to $80 million, but I’ll hedge and say high 60s is likelier.

Project Hail Mary opening weekend prediction: $69 million

For my Ready or Not 2: Here I Come prediction, click here:

Ready or Not 2: Here I Come Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Project Hail Mary

Project Hail Mary touches down in theaters March 20th looking to score impressive box office numbers. The sci-fi adventure comes from filmmakers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, best known for their involvement in the Lego, 21/22 Jump Street, and Spider-Verse franchises. Ryan Gosling headlines with Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub providing support.

Early reviews are encouraging with many critics calling this a big-hearted popcorn feast reminiscent of Spielberg. Rotten Tomatoes is fresh at 96% with Metacritic at 80. If Mary pops with audiences and becomes a financial hit, that could help with awards attention. Down the line nods including Daniel Pemberton’s score, Editing, Production Design, and especially Sound and Visual Effects are all possibilities.

How it fares in the major races is more of an open question. Under a best case scenario, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by Drew Goddard from the Andy Weir novel) could happen. This logic also applies to Best Picture like other space tales Gravity and The Martian (also based on a Weir story). It could also miss the big dance like other genre titles Interstellar and Gosling’s First Man. The leading man could make a play for a fourth acting mention.

The bottom line is that this Project could be one that Oscar voters notice. To what level remains to be seen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Rose

The Berlin Film Festival is underway. Last year, it was where critics and audiences first saw Rose Byrne’s Oscar nominated performance for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. There could be another Best Actress contender for the next ceremony via Rose.

Sandra Hüller plays the title role of a 17th century woman masquerading as a man for financial purposes. Marcus Schleinzer directs with a supporting cast including Caro Braun, Marisa Growaldt, Godehard Giese, and Robert Gwisdek. The Austrian/German production is slated for European release this spring while stateside distribution is unsettled (though probably not for long).

Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with much praise going to its star. Hüller was a 2023 nominee for Anatomy of a Fall and she could rise again here. It is also feasible that Austria or Germany might select this as their horse for International Feature Film. If this receives a well-managed campaign, Rose could bloom during the next season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

American Fiction

Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.

Anatomy of a Fall

The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.

Barbie

Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.

The Holdovers

Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.

Killers of the Flower Moon

Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.

Maestro

Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.

Past Lives

Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.

Poor Things

The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.

The Zone of Interest

The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.

And that means my final 2023 five would be:

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

We are about a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and Best Actor and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Actress. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Emma Stone for Poor Things. I will note that her main competitor – Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon – was listed at that time as a Supporting Actress contender and not lead. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Annette Bening in Nyad and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. I did not identify Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actress (the vice versa of Gladstone).

Speaking of Gladstone, she could make a return appearance with Fancy Dance. So could Ms. Stone though I do wonder if the anthology format of Kinds of Kindness slots her here or in lead. Other possibilities include the return of Angelina Jolie to the awards conversation as opera legend Maria Callas in Maria and Lady Gaga as Joker’s muse Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Other Possibilitities:

Glenn Close, The Summer Book

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Tilda Swinton, The End

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Director is up next!

96th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).

Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.

As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.

Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…

Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.

Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.

Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.

Prediction: American Fiction

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.

Prediction: The Zone of Interest

Runner-Up: Society of the Snow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.

Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.

Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Four Daughters

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.

Prediction: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

A very easy call for Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.

Prediction: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.

Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.

Prediction: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

BEST SOUND

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.

Prediction: The Creator

Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One

That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.

Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

2 Wins

Barbie

1 Win

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…

77th BAFTA Awards Reaction

The top races went as I anticipated at the 77th BAFTA Awards while other races were a bit more unpredictable. That’s pretty much par for the course with the British equivalent of the Oscars as I went 13/23 (oof) in my selections.

Let’s start with Oppenheimer. As expected, Christopher Nolan’s epic took Best Film and its maker is your Best Director. Some prognosticators had this pegged for a record setting 10 BAFTAs. I had it winning 8 and it took 7. In addition to Film and Director, I correctly called Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Original Score. I still believe Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers poses a threat to Murphy with the Academy (especially if he manages to win SAG). Oppenheimer should take those other BAFTA trophies a little less than a month away at the Oscars.

I incorrectly had Oppenheimer taking Best Sound. It instead went to The Zone of Interest. The Holocaust drama had a solid day with a victory in Best Film Not in the English Language over my predicted Anatomy of a Fall and for Outstanding British Film over my pick of Poor Things.

Despite the Poor miss in that category, it was honored with a handful of prizes. Emma Stone is your Best Actress and it won Costume Design, Makeup & Hair (over my Maestro call), Production Design, and Special Visual Effects (over my Napoleon pick).

The Holdovers was a double recipient for Supporting Actress with Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Casting (I went with All of Us Strangers instead).

Those four (Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, The Holdovers) were the only features with two victories or more. Here’s what else I got right: Anatomy of a Fall in Original Screenplay (which certainly helps its Oscar chances) and 20 Days in Mariupol for Documentary (same story).

In Adapted Screenplay, it was American Fiction continuing to make the case for Academy gold with a surprise win over Poor Things and my runner-up Oppenheimer.

The Boy and the Heron, as it did at the Globes, is Best Animated Feature over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I went with Spidey and there could be a real showdown on March 10th.

Earth Mama is the Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer over the favored How to Have Sex while the lead in Sex (Mia McKenna-Bruce) is the Rising Star over Jacob Elordi (who I picked).

Some overall takeaways that shouldn’t surprise: Oppenheimer is still the overwhelming choice for BP as it’s winning everywhere it needs to. Same goes for Nolan and Downey Jr.

Randolph is bascially a lock for Supporting Actress while Emma Stone helped herself today over stiff competition from Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Some noteworthy pics that didn’t take a single award: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Maestro.

Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar speculation as we approach the big show!