Tag: Toronto Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: Misty Green

Misty Green is Chris Rock’s first directorial feature in a dozen years since his well-received Top Five. The A24 release has premiered in Toronto prior to its October 9th stateside release. Rosalind Eleazar, best known for her small screen work on Apple TV’s Slow Horses, plays the title role with a supporting cast including Adam Driver, Daniel Kaluuya, Anna Kendrick, Topher Grace, and Mr. Rock himself.

Initial reaction from TIFF is a mixed bag. The initial Metacritic score is 73. What’s not mixed is the praise for Eleazar in her portrayal of a fading Hollywood star. Critics are also being kind to Kaluuya, but the Supporting Actor winner for 2020’s Judas and the Black Messiah‘s role is likely too small for recognition.

Green‘s only Oscar play is for Eleazar. However, A24 could face a challenge in their campaign. Julianne Moore (The Debut) appears to be the frontrunner and Olivia Wilde (The Invite) has a strong shot at inclusion. Will A24 really get three performers in? I’m not so sure and that’s probably why Eleazar won’t be in my top five in my next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: I Play Rocky

50 years after parlaying its “little movie that could” status to a Best Picture Oscar victory over heavyweights like All the President’s Men, Network, and Taxi Driver, a movie about its making looks to punch its own ticket with awards voters. Peter Farrelley’s I Play Rocky has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival prior to a November release with Anthony Ippolito as Rocky star and writer Sylvester Stallone. Costars include AnnaSophia Robb, Toby Kebbell, P.J. Byrne, Stephan James, Jay Duplass, Tracy Letts, and Matt Dillon.

Word-of-mouth from our northern neighbor indicates that this Rocky recounting, like the source material, is quite the crowdpleaser. Critics are more mixed. The early RT score is 60%. Eight years ago, Farrelly’s Green Book premiered in Toronto, ended up taking the coveted audience prize, and eventually took home Best Picture at the 91st Academy Awards. It is a BP win that is now considered one of the weaker results in recent ceremonies.

I Play Rocky is a fascinating case study for prognosticators. The reviews aren’t overly strong. However, if this can nab the same TIFF hardware that Farrelly’s earlier title did, all bets are off and this could materialize in BP. An impressive box office run could assist and that’s certainly a possibility.

I’m skeptical that it makes the cut right now. If it does, Adapted Screenplay or Casting nods could follow. Where Rocky may have its best shot is Best Actor where Ippolito’s work is said to rise far above just an impersonation. He would face off against a seemingly crowded ring of competitors. I doubt I’ll have this predicted in BP or Actor in my imminent next update though it’ll be ranked higher in both than any time before. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother

Director Bassam Tariq and two-time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali were supposed to team up for the MCU’s Blade reboot but the project never materialized. They did end up collaborating on Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother which has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival before its September 25th stateside bow.

The action thriller features Ali as a hitman in a tale of faith and grief with a supporting cast including John Cho, Giancarlo Esposito, Abubakr Ali, Tramell Tillman, Tiffany Boone, and Laith Nakli. Early reviews are positive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.

Ali is receiving kudos for his headlining role. A decade ago, he took home Best Supporting Actor for Moonlight and followed that up two years later with a victory in the same category for Green Book. Despite praise for this leading man part, I don’t believe the Amazon MGM production is one that awards voters will take note of. That’s unless critics groups really get behind the performance of its lead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tangles

Based on Sarah Leavitt’s graphic novel about her mother’s battle with Alzheimer’s, the animated drama Tangles premiered at Cannes and has now played Toronto to fresh reviews. Said to be a major tearjerker, Leah Nelson directs with a voice cast including Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Abbi Jacobson, Bryan Cranston, Samira Wiley, Beanie Feldstein, Seth Rogen, Pamela Adlon, Sarah Silverman, Bowen Yang, and Wanda Sykes. Among the film’s producers are its cast mates Louis-Dreyfus and Rogen.

IFC has acquired distribution rights with a planned Oscar qualifying release by year’s end. It might pan out. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%. If this gets enough exposure with the animation branch, I could see it nabbing one of the five slots and I’ve had it doing so in my projections for some time. Competition in the coming weeks will be key to see whether it stays there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Being Heumann

Five years ago, Sian Heder’s Apple TV dramedy CODA achieved “little movie that could” status by winning all three Oscars it was nominated for – Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur), and Adapted Screenplay. Focused on a teen growing up in a deaf family, the film beat out heavyweights including The Power of the Dog and Dune in the biggest race of all. Heder’s follow-up is Being Heumann and it serves as the opening night selection for the Toronto Film Festival. It has a theatrical release on November 6th before streaming on Apple the following week.

Ruth Madeley stars as activist Judith Heumann in the 1970s set true story about achieving rights for the disabled. The supporting cast includes Mark Ruffalo, Dylan O’Brien, Rob Delaney, and Ray Fisher. With a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 Metacritic, scores are actually similar to CODA‘s (94% RT, 72 MC). Yet I’m not convinced that Heder’s latest will be a contender in BP unless its crowdpleaser status gets it there. If so, another Adapted Screenplay nod could occur.

There are, however, some races where it has a better shot. Best Casting is a possibility. Many performers in the ensemble are part of the community whose rights are focused on. I could see it making the cut in Casting without any other noms.

In Best Actress, Julianne Moore (The Debut) and arguably Inde Navarrette (Obsession) and Olivia Wilde (The Invite) appear to be holding punched tickets. Madeley is generating great notices in the central role and I wouldn’t count her out. I’m not sure I’ll have her in the final five in my next update (out Sunday), but she might rank higher than 10th. That’s where I had her listed in my latest update at the end of August. On the other hand, Ruffalo has been listed as a possibility in my 15 Supporting Actor slots (last time in 13th position). Toronto WOM indicates he’ll be a non-factor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Long Winter

Andrew Haigh has been a critics darling over the past decade plus with 45 Years, Lean on Pete, and All of Us Strangers. He’s yet to have a major Oscar breakout (though Charlotte Rampling was up in Actress for 45 Years). His latest is the coming-of-age drama A Long Winter which premiered at Telluride and soon moves to the Toronto and New York fests. Fred Hechinger, Kit Connor, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitriona Balfe, and D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai make up the ensemble.

With Metacritic at 79, reviews are respectful but I don’t think they go far enough for this to contend in Best Picture. Hechinger and Balfe are receiving decent notices. However, Winter‘s only shot seems to be in Cinematography and I’m not convinced a major campaign will be mounted for it to sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tender Loving Care

Legendary English auteur Mike Leigh has stated that Tender Loving Care is most likely his last feature film after a career of indie dramas. Several have garnered awards attention including seven personal mentions for his directing or screenwriting. Those nominations cover a quintet of pics: 1996’s Secrets & Lies, 1999’s Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake from 2004, 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky, and 2010’s Another Year. Leigh has yet to win.

Care stars Kate O’Flynn, Marion Bailey (Leigh’s real life partner), Paul Jesson, and Alice Bailey Johnson. Premiering at Telluride before moving to Toronto and New York, Bleecker Street is releasing it December 4th. Early reviews indicate this is a touching dramedy that would serve as a fine swan song to his career.

I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for this to be in the Best Picture conversation. O’Flynn and Bailey, in a best case scenario, could be chatted up in the Actress and Supporting Actress fields. The former is having a banner year with an acclaimed performance on Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay which could earn her an Emmy.

The likeliest scenario might be Leigh receiving his sixth and potentially final try in Original Screenplay and that being Care‘s sole nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bucking Fastard

Filmmaker Werner Herzog has been known more for his documentaries in recent years than fictional features. Yet he’s back in Venice (and then Telluride and Toronto) with the latter via Bucking Fastard. Real life sisters Rooney and Kate Mara headline as two siblings in the oddball drama where their characters share a rare emotional connection. Orlando Bloom and Domhnall Gleeson costar.

Herzog is known for eccentric tales and Fastard (with an eccentric title to boot) appears to fit that description. Critics are appreciating the work of the two leads while most reviews are more mixed on the picture itself. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with Metacritic at 58. This was never seen as much of an awards contender and reaction from Italy prove its chances are, well, bucked. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Wild Horse Nine

Martin McDonagh’s last two features have received Best Picture and screenplay nominations and a combined seven acting mentions yielding two wins. 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had our Best Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) victors with Woody Harrelson also up in supporting. The Banshees of Inisherin, while 0 for 4 in podium walks, saw Colin Farrell (Actor), Kerry Condon (Supporting Actress), and Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan (Supporting Actor in contention) in the mix.

So it’s no surprise that Wild Horse Nine, the filmmaker’s latest black comedy, was considered a serious awards contender upon announcement. John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Mariana di Girolamo, Ailín Salas, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey are in the ensemble. It has screened at Venice prior and moves to Telluride and Toronto before the November 6th theatrical bow.

Early word-of-mouth from Italy gives it an 83% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 79 on Metacritic. That’s not as high as Billboards or Banshees. However, the strongest reviews indicate this should be a third BP nominee in a row for McDonagh. Directing is more of a question mark while his original screenplay seems like a certainty. Down-the-line inclusion in Casting (a strong possibility), Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score are achievable.

One of the biggest question marks has been which performers will rise out of the group. Malkovich has been nominated in Supporting Actor twice – 42 years ago for The Killing Fields and 33 years ago for In the Line of Fire. It appears his first leading nom is coming based on buzz and he might be a threat to win. This is assuming Fox Searchlight campaigns for him there instead of supporting. Until I hear different, I’m making that assumption. Rockwell appears more poised to get attention in that race than Buscemi though it’s worth a reminder that both Banshees boys got in. As for the females providing support, a better than expected haul for Horse could sweep di Girolamo or Posey in. Yet I’m less convinced about both making the cut and I’ve had the former in my projected five since my initial predictions. That may change in my next update. What hasn’t changed is that Wild is an awards player as expected. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ink

The Venice Film Festival kicks off today with Telluride and Toronto soon to follow. Danny Boyle’s Ink is the Italian fest’s opening feature. The filmmaker’s Slumdog Millionaire was the Best Picture honoree in 2008. Based on the 2017 stage play, the film recounts the founding and evolution of British tabloid The Sun from the late 1960s to the 1980s. Jack O’Connell, Claire Foy, and Guy Pearce (as Rupert Murdoch) headline the cast. Ink is slated for a limited and Oscar-qualifying theatrical engagement on December 11th before a Netflix bow on January 8th.

Sometimes a festival premiere will greatly increase or decrease a pic’s awards viability. The initial reaction to Ink pretty much puts it where I assumed it was. With 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, reviews are generally praising many aspects without going overboard.

I’ve had Ink just on the outside looking in for Best Picture contention. My update three days ago had it 11th. Netflix faces a choice with how hard they go in their campaign as The Black Ball will likely be their main focus. Right now my hunch that it misses the BP cut feels correct.

The buzz from Venice also indicates that O’Connell, Foy, and Pearce all deliver fine performances. However, only Pearce seems truly viable for consideration in the Supporting Actor field. The veteran performer landed his first nom two years ago for The Brutalist and was arguably runner-up for the win. He is nowhere near a shoo-in to make the final five though I suspect he’ll be in the mix in a way his costars are not.

Ink could also play in Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. For the latter, that may apply only if it sneaks into the BP race. That is certainly a possibility, but I’m leaning the other way as the ink figuratively dries on this write-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…