A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Box Office Prediction

Tom Hanks dons the iconic red cardigan next weekend in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. The feel good drama casts the double Oscar winner as childrens host Mister Rogers, just one year after Won’t You Be My Neighbor? became one of the highest grossing documentaries of all time. Marielle Heller (who directed Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant to Academy nods last year in Can You Ever Forgive Me?) is behind the camera. Matthew Rhys stars as a journalist doing a story on Rogers with Susan Kelechi Watson and Chris Cooper in the supporting cast.

Since Day debuted at the Toronto Film Festival a couple months back, solid buzz followed and its current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 97%. It appears probable that Hanks will receive his first Oscar nomination (in Supporting Actor) since 2000’s Cast Away. The aforementioned 2018 doc likely helps its visibility, as does casting one of our biggest movie stars as one of America’s most beloved figures.

There is the matter of Frozen II, which could siphon some family audiences away. Beautiful also arrives on the pre Thanksgiving long frame and some filmgoers may simply choose to spend time in this neighborhood at that time.

While I do believe a premiere of over $20 million (maybe even $25 million) is feasible, I’ll say  high teens with weekends of strong holds ahead is the play.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million

For my Frozen II prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/12/frozen-ii-box-office-prediction/

For my 21 Bridges prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/15/21-bridges-box-office-prediction/

Harriet Box Office Prediction

Once looked at as a potential Oscar contender, buzz for Harriet has significantly dwindled since its debut at the Toronto Film Festival back in September. I suspect this autobiographical tale of abolitionist Harriet Tubman will suffer at the box office as a result. Widows actress Cynthia Erivo stars in the title role with a supporting cast including Leslie Odom Jr., Joe Alwyn, and Janelle Monae. Kasi Lemmons directs. 

Its premiere in Canada yielded mixed reviews and it currently stands at a middling 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture seems like a lost cause and Erivo (once looked at as a sure fire contender) may have a tough time making the cut for Best Actress. 

Based on those factors, I foresee Harriet struggling to hit double digits for its start. 

Harriet opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million 

For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/22/terminator-dark-fate-box-office-prediction/

For my Motherless Brooklyn prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/motherless-brooklyn-box-office-prediction/

For my Arctic Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/arctic-dogs-box-office-prediction/

The Current War Box Office Prediction

Historical drama The Current War has experienced a very bumpy road on its journey to the big screen. The film in September 2017 at the Toronto Film Festival with Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon starring as Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse, respectively. Once looked at as an awards hopeful, it failed to electrify critics and it currently sports a dim 31% Rotten Tomatoes score. To add insult to injury, War was being distributed by The Weinstein Company and its co-founder’s legal issues put its release on hold.

That ends this Friday as Alfonso Gomez-Rejon’s effort is out with trailers calling it the “Director’s Cut” (an odd choice considering only reviewers and Toronto goers saw it two years back). Costars include Katherine Waterston, Tom Holland (who’s appeared as Spider-Man several times since making this), and Nicholas Hoult.

Simply put, I see no little anticipation here and there’s plenty of actual Oscar contenders out in limited or wide release for adults to attend. There’s no screen count yet and that could alter my estimate, but I believe this will lucky to even reach $2 million.

The Current War opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million

For my Countdown prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/16/countdown-box-office-prediction/

For my Black and Blue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/17/black-and-blue-box-office-prediction/

2019 Oscar Predictions: September 19th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Some events from over the last week:

  • By Friday next week, The Irishman will have screened and we will know how much of a contender it truly is. I’ve held it as a placeholder in first since I started my projections a month ago. I’m shaking it up a bit and sliding the picture and Martin Scorsese to third. That means Marriage Story takes over in slot one for Pic and Quentin Tarantino is first for direction.
  • Winning the Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival, Jojo Rabbit got just the shot in the arm it needed after mixed reviews. 10 of the past 11 Toronto recipients have nabbed a Best Picture nod. So it’s back in my mix. It replaces Waves.
  • In Director, Sam Mendes is back in with James Mangold out.
  • No changes to the top five in Best Actor. . In Actress and Supporting Actress – same story as even 1-5 rankings remain consistent.
  • In Supporting Actor, it’s Willem Dafoe returning to the predictions over Sterling K. Brown.
  • The five Adapted Screenplays haven’t changed while in Original, it’s The Farewell over Waves. 

WINNER OF THE WEEK: Jojo Rabbit 

LOSER OF THE WEEK: Waves 

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

5. Parasite (PR: 6)

6. 1917 (PR: 10)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 14)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 4)

9. Joker (PR: 8)

10. Little Women (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

12. Waves (PR: 9)

13. The Farewell (PR:12)

14. Just Mercy (PR: 13)

15. A Hidden Life (PR: 19)

16. Bombshell (PR: 18)

17. The Lighthouse (PR: 20)

18. Pain and Glory (PR: 16)

19. Booksmart (PR: 22)

20. Dark Waters (PR: 17)

21. The Report (PR: 15)

22. Knives Out (PR: 21)

23. Ad Astra (PR: 25)

24. Rocketman (PR: 24)

25. The Good Liar (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queen and Slim 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)

5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 13)

8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 7)

9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)

10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 12)

13. Todd Phillips, Joker (Not Ranked)

14. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 15)

15. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, Dark Waters 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 3)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 2)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)

7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 13)

11. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)

12. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 10)

13. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)

15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)

7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 10)

10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)

12. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)

13. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 12)

14. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 13)

15. Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit (PR: 15)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)

3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)

4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 6)

9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)

10. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)

11. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 7)

12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 11)

13. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)

14. Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters (PR: 12)

15. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Renee Elise Goldsberry, Waves 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

5. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 5)

8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 11)

9. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 10)

10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 8)

11. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)

12. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 12)

14. Chris Evans, Knives Out (PR: 14)

15. Jamie Bell, Rocketman (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Aldis Hodge, Clemency 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 4)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. The Farewell (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Waves (PR: 5)

7. Booksmart (PR: 10)

8. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)

10. The Report (PR: 7)

11. Knives Out (PR: 11)

12. Bombshell (PR: 12)

13. The Lighthouse (PR: 13)

14. 1917 (PR: 14)

15. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queen and Slim 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

3. Little Women (PR: 2)

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Just Mercy (PR: 6)

7. Dark Waters (PR: 7)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 13)

9. The Laundromat (PR: 8)

10. Judy (PR: 11)

11. The Good Liar (PR: 15)

12. Luce (PR: 10)

13. Hustlers (PR: 9)

14. Toy Story 4 (PR: 12)

15. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 14)

Back at it next week!!

Jojo Takes Toronto

Buckle up Oscar prognosticators because we are in for a heckuva awards season over the next few months!

One week after Joker took the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and increased its Oscar chances for Best Picture, Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit has emerged victorious in the People’s Choice Award in Toronto.

A very solid argument can be made that this particular designation is even more key in determining an eventual BP nod. Why? The odds are certainly in its favor. 10 out of the last 11 winners have received a nod in the big race come Oscar time. Four of them – 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2010’s The King’s Speech, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave and last year’s Green Book – ended up winning BP.

What makes the Jojo victory surprising is the mixed critical reaction it’s garnered. The buzz for this award was centered on titles like Parasite (which was a runner-up), Marriage Story (another runner-up), and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Conventional wisdom in the last few days has been that Jojo is an on the bubble BP contender at best. The Toronto audience love shows that its admirers are passionate. And that might be enough to overcome the naysayers.

There is no doubt that this is exactly the kind of prize Jojo needed to keep its Oscar viability alive. And now Jojo and Joker have more in common than their alphabetical proximity. They’re contenders.

My Jojo Rabbit review can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/10/jojo-rabbit-movie-review/

Oscar Watch: Honey Boy

There was a time and it wasn’t long ago when Shia LaBeouf’s career appeared to be a Hollywood cautionary tale. Just about a decade ago, he was the industry’s hot new leading man with starring roles in the Transformers franchise, Disturbia, and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. However, his bizarre personal antics and a high profile 2017 arrest looked to derail his promising standing.

2019 has proved to be a resurgent period. There’s his acclaimed turn in the indie hit The Peanut Butter Falcon. And early this year, Honey Boy was unveiled at the Sundance Film Festival and screenings have continued in Toronto.

LaBeouf wrote the screenplay and it serves as an autobiographical look at his childhood. He also costars and he gave himself a part in which he plays his own father. Other actors include Lucas Hedges, Noah Jupe, Maika Moore, and Natasha Lyonne. Like Falcon, the film has garnered critical praise to the tune of a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Academy voters love a solid comeback story. Could they reward LaBeouf with a supporting actor or original screenplay nod? I generally think Honey Boy might be a tad too low profile for inclusion and Original Screenplay in particular seems awfully crowded. Yet when it comes to how things were looking just two years ago, awards chatter is a positive sign of where Shia’s career is at. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Lucy in the Sky

Natalie Portman is an astronaut who seems to lose touch with reality when she becomes Earthbound again in Lucy in the Sky, which has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. And while many critics are praising her performance, their reception to the picture itself is having a problem.

Noah Hawley, who created the acclaimed TV adaptation of Fargo, makes his directorial debut with a supporting cast including Jon Hamm, Zazie Beetz, Dan Stevens, and Ellen Burstyn (who reportedly gets to spout some salty dialogue). As mentioned, Lucy did not fly in its rollout and it sits at just 31% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Portman is an Oscar winner from 2010’s Black Swan in addition to two other nods for Closer and Jackie. With tepid reaction to her latest, expect her nominations number to stay put at three. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…