And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.
This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
After premiering last fall at the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, the latest cinematic version of Hamlet hits stateside venues this weekend. Aneil Karia helms a contemporary retelling of William Shakespeare’s tragedy with Riz Ahmed in the title role. Costars include Morfydd Clark, Joe Alwyn, Sheeba Chaddra, Art Malik, and Timothy Spall.
Critical reaction is varied with a 73% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. A 2020 Best Actor nominee for Sound of Metal, Ahmed is getting some solid ink. However, the high likelihood is that awards chatter for this Hamnet is not to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The prolific Steven Soderbergh’s latest is comedic thriller The Christophers and it’s out in limited fashion this weekend after originally premiering at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Distributed by Neon, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel (who will also be seen this month in Mother Mary) headline with Jessica Gunning and James Corden providing support.
Reviews are on the fresh side with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. There have been plenty of critically appreciated efforts from the director in the 21st century including last year’s Black Bag. However, you have to go back to 2000 and Soderbergh’s one-two punch of Erin Brockovich and Traffic to find his last major Oscar players. I don’t anticipate that will change with The Christophers. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It might be Oscar weekend, but it’s also time for South by Southwest which is premiering numerous movies and TV shows. The Austin fest isn’t really a breeding ground for eventual Academy fare though 2022’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once did kick off there.
SXSW is known more for showcasing odder and independent spirited movies. The Oscar bait usually saves itself for Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Nevertheless Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is an eagerly awaited title that served as opening selection.
This is the rapper and political activist turned filmmaker’s sophomore feature after his acclaimed 2018 debut Sorry to Bother You. The satire centers on a group of shoplifters boasts an eclectic cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
Early buzz indicates Riley has another critical hit with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Reviews also infer that it’s far out there similar to Bother. Perhaps Original Screenplay could be in play at the Oscars, but this might be more tailored to the Independent Spirit Awards or the Gothams (two ceremonies where Riley’s inaugural effort showed up). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nigerian family drama My Father’s Shadow has been playing the festival circuit for months beginning at Cannes and continuing to Toronto. It marks the directorial debut of Akinola Davies Jr. and stars Sope Dirisu with Godwin Chiemerie Egbo and Chibuike Marvellous Egbo as his sons. The United Kingdom has submitted it as the hopeful for Best International Feature Film.
The Brits may have chosen wisely. Shadow is receiving early kudos from other awards bodies. It was given a special award for its first-time filmmaker at Cannes. At the British Independent Film Awards, it was up in 12 categories and won Best Director. And tonight at the Gothams, it went 2 for 2 with Breakthrough Director and a surprise victory for Dirisu for Outstanding Lead Performance.
After a streak in which none of their 21st century submitted features made the cut in the international race, the UK took top honors two years ago for The Zone of Interest. Last year, Santosh made the shortlist but not the final quintet. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 85 Metacritic, Shadow could be gathering buzz at the right time.
Some key caveats as the aforementioned ceremonies aren’t exactly reliable Oscar precursors. There’s also the matter of IFF being quite crowded with more high-profile titles including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident (which also received some Gotham love), The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice. However, if Shadow makes this year’s shortlist, it could be a trendy pick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Palestine 36 is in limited release after playing the festival circuit and it hopes to become the nation’s third submission nominated for Best International Feature Film. The historical epic with ties to current events is from writer/director Annemarie Jacir with a cast including Hiam Abbass, Kamel El Basha, Yasmine Al Massri, Robert Aramayo, Liam Cunningham, and Jeremy Irons.
The film debuted at the Toronto Film Festival where it received a prolonged ovation and traveled to the Tokyo International fest where it took the top prize. With a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the aforementioned resume would point to a possible nomination. It would join 2005’s Paradise Now and 2013’s Omar as Palestine’s other contenders (last year’s From Ground Zero was shortlisted but didn’t make the quintet).
Yet while all reviews are fresh, the 61 Metacritic score is more telling and this is a year where IFF is packed with hopefuls. I have yet to list this in my top 10 for possibilities and I don’t see that changing unless precursors change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (11/25): It appears Eternity is opening on approximately 1500 screens which is lower than I assumed. Therefore my three-day estimate is declining from $4.3 million to $3 million and five-day from $6.1 million to $4.4 million.
The afterlife set rom com Eternity premieres over Thanksgiving after screening at the Toronto Film Festival in September. David Freyne directs with Miles Teller, Elizabeth Olsen, and Callum Turner making up a love triangle. Costars include John Early, Olga Merediz, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
A rare comic relief genre title from A24, word-of-mouth from the north of the border festival was decent if not overwhelmingly positive. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 83% with Metacritic at 65. Despite the presence of Teller and Olsen (who’ve had their share of high profile titles), this should struggle for eyeballs over the five-day holiday frame. Some of its intended audience could be catching up on Wicked: For Good, taking the kids to Zootopia 2, or simply waiting this out for streaming.
I’ll say mid single digits from Friday to Sunday with a couple million added when factoring Wednesday and Thursday.
Eternity opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Three years after a comeback role in The Whale that won him an Oscar, Brendan Fraser headlines the dramedy Rental Family on November 21st. Hikari directs the apparent crowdpleaser that played the Toronto Film Festival in September. Costars include Takehiro Hira, Mari Yamamoto, Shannon Mahina Gorman, and Akira Emoto.
The Japan set Searchlight release sits at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 66 on Metacritic is a bit more telling. Family was seen by prognosticators as a potential Oscar contender. Its festival debut tamped down those expectations. Awards buzz might’ve helped its box office prospects.
Premiering on approximately 1600 screens, Rental may only see low single digits for starters and hope that word-of-mouth keeps its declines low in subsequent weekends.
Rental Family opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million
It’s been a 2025 of unimpressive box office numbers for Sydney Sweeney features including Eden and Americana. That may end in December with The Housemaid, but I look for it to continue in November with Christy. The true life sports biopic casts Sweeney as boxer Christy Martin with David Michôd directing. The supporting cast includes Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, Katy O’Brian, and Ethan Embry.
Christy premiered in early September at the Toronto Film Festival hoping to kick off an Oscar campaign for its star. While her performance is being appreciated, reviews themselves were so-so with 69% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56 Metacritic. That word-of-mouth hasn’t completely KO’ed Sweeney’s awards chances, but did significantly hamper it.
I doubt audiences turn up though it should top the $1 million and $500,000 that Eden and Americana respectively made in their first weekends of semi-wide release.
As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:
I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
After the Hunt
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
The Rivals of Amziah King
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Alpha
Ballad of a Small Player
Bugonia
Die, My Love
F1
Frankenstein
Highest 2 Lowest
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Materialists
Michael
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Testament of Ann Lee
Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.
So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.
The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.
Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.
I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.
Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.
Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.
That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.
I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.
An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.
To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.
Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.
Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).
The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.
Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.
Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.
Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!
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