Love of Your Life is Oscar nominated cinematographer Rachel Morrison’s second directorial effort behind 2024’s The Fire Inside. The romantic drama premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last month and is currently in limited release prior to its Amazon Prime bow on October 14th. The cast is led by Margaret Qualley, Aaron Pierre, Patrick Schwarzenegger, Gabriel Basso, and Catherine Keener.
The film, like Fire, generated a mostly muted response upon its festival premiere. Reviews are respectful but far from glowing with 76% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. Awards voters should greet this similarly to the Toronto crowd with ambivalence. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It can be said that four of Ben Affleck’s previous five directorial efforts attracted awards attention. His 2007 debut Gone Baby Gone received a Supporting Actress nod for Amy Ryan while 2010’s follow-up The Town saw Jeremy Renner nab a supporting mention. 2012’s Argo was the Best Picture winner in addition to Adapted Screenplay and Editing victories (though Affleck was not up for his directing). Four years later, Live by Night was a critical and commercial failure that is the outlier as far as Oscar prospects. While 2023’s Air didn’t end up with any noms, it was in the conversation for some.
Affleck’s sixth behind the camera effort Animals is out with a limited theatrical engagement (I guess for Academy eligibility) this weekend along with a Netflix streaming bow. The crime thriller stars Affleck, Gillian Anderson, Kerry Washington, Steven Yeun, Luis Gerardo Méndez, and Adriana Paz.
Critical reaction is even softer than what greeted Live by Night. Rotten Tomatoes is at 35% with Metacritic at an even worse 31. The review embargo didn’t lift until hours before it was available to millions of Netflix viewers. That was a big hint that Animals chances in the awards conversation were DOA and that’s been proven true. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 2010, David Fincher’s The Social Network was an awards powerhouse with 10 nominations including Best Picture, Director, and Jesse Eisenberg in Actor (it would lose all three to The King’s Speech). It did emerge victorious for its Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Original Score. Fincher and Eisenberg are not involved in the sequel The Social Reckoning which releases this weekend. Network‘s writer Aaron Sorkin returns in that role and in the director’s chair. Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White, Bill Burr, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, and Billy Magnussen lead the cast with Jeremy Strong taking over from Eisenberg as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.
With the review embargo having lifted just a day before its theatrical debut, it seems like Reckoning will not resonate with awards voters. Rotten Tomatoes is at 70% with Metacritic only at 50. Madison and Strong are getting by relatively unscathed (the same cannot be said for Sorkin’s script according to several critics). However, I don’t see Madison (in her first role since her Oscar-winning lead performance in 2024’s Anora), Strong, or anyone else generating much chatter for their work. A nominee two years ago for The Apprentice, I’ve had Strong listed in my Supporting Actor possibilities in the top 10 for months (though not as a nominee). There’s a good chance he drops out of contention altogether. I’m struggling to see Social getting in anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Recounting the company history of OpenAI, Artificial is a new tale involving a web-related reckoning from director Luca Guadagnino. Originally an Amazon MGM release, the studio controversially dropped the feature after it was completed with Neon eventually snatching the rights. Said to be a dark comedy, Andrew Garfield is OpenAI CEO Sam Altman with Yura Borisov as the company’s cofounder. The supporting cast includes Monica Barbaro, Cooper Hoffman, Jason Schwartzman, Chris O’Dowd, Ike Barinholtz, and Mark Rylance. It premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its Christmas Day theatrical bow.
Based on initial reaction, Artificial could enter the chat as an awards contender in several races. That begins with Best Picture. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 92% with Metacritic at 76. I view this as a hopeful in the 9-10 range of the 10 BP possibilities though it certainly may miss the cut entirely. An Original Screenplay nod is also feasible.
An announcement earlier this week confirmed that Borisov will be submitted in lead Actor with Barbaro vying for Supporting Actress. Both were nominees two years ago in the supporting fields for Anora and A Complete Unknown respectively. I am skeptical either get in. Garfield is another story. He’s a two-time nominee in Best Actor for 2016’s Hacksaw Ridge and 2021’s Tick, Tick… Boom! Neon is campaigning him in Supporting Actor and I do believe he stands a solid shot at making that quintet. I’ve yet to predict Garfield, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update for what sounds like a juicy role. As for the down-the-line attention, the score from Blur/Gorillaz frontman Damon Albarn is getting noticed.
While Challengers and Queer and After the Hunt ultimately became non-factors with the Academy, Artificial seems like Guadagnino’s first real shot at multiple noms since 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
True life mountain climbing drama Tenzing has played the Telluride and Toronto festivals prior to a limited theatrical engagement next weekend and an Apple TV streaming release on October 16th. Jennifer Peedom, known for most nature related docs, directs. Genden Phuntsok plays the title role (known to be the first individual to ascend Mount Everest) alongside Sir Edmund Hillary (Tom Hiddleston). Willem Dafoe and Caitriona Balfe costar.
Tenzing managed a respectful reception on the fest circuit. While Rotten Tomatoes is at 100%, the Metacritic is a more grounded 65. While critics are praising some technical aspects, I doubt this climbs into the awards conversation on any level. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Two decades plus after receiving a Supporting Actress nomination for Hotel Rwanda, Sophie Okonedo is picking up raves for her lead work in Clarissa. Updating Virginia Woolf’s Mrs. Dalloway, the Nigerian set drama comes from directors and twin brothers Arie and Chuko Esiri. The supporting cast includes David Oyelowo, Toheeb Jimoh, India Amarteifio, Nikki Amuka-Bird, and Ayo Edebiri.
Clarissa premiered at Cannes with its stateside unveiling last week at the New York festival. Neon is planning a limited theatrical engagement on December 11th. Reviews are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 87 on Metacritic. I just wonder if exposure will be wide enough for Okonedo to nab her second try at gold. I suspect she’ll need some precursors or critics’ groups love to get the Academy’s attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In his first directorial project since 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! has premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its December 4th stateside bow. The Searchlight property from the Michael Clayton filmmaker casts Pedro Pascal as a cello prodigy returning home to his native L.A. The drama costars Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor, Will Arnett, and Hank Azaria.
I’ve had Behemoth! in my top 10 projected Best Picture nominees (usually in the 8-9 slot range) for awhile now. Now that it’s been seen, I’m less confident it makes the cut. Some reviews are quite laudatory but the 81% Rotten Tomatoes and 73 Metacritic also indicates mixed notices. I expect it will drop from BP when I do my next update.
The pic could still factor into other races. Wilde is getting some nice ink though I’m skeptical a Supporting Actress nom would occur, especially because she’s likely to get an Actress nod for The Invite. Pascal is another story. He could contend for his first Actor mention. Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Andrew Scott (Elsinore) seem like safe bets for inclusion in the quintet. That leaves two slots with several vying for attention. Pascal’s notices are solid enough that he belongs in that group along with Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary, who I’m more confident about than others), Robert Pattinson (Primetime), Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York), Jaafar Jackson (Michael) and, yes, Tom Cruise in Digger.
Behemoth!‘s best shot might be in Best Original Score where nine individuals contributed including celebrated composers like James Newton Howard, Michael Giacchino, and Alan Silvestri. Critics especially took notice of that aspect. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Austrian filmmaker Sandra Woller premiered psychological drama Everytime at the Cannes Film Festival where it won top honors in the Un Certain Regard section. Birgit Minichmayr, Tristán Lopez, Lotte Shirin Keiling, and Carla Hütterman lead the ensemble.
The pic is bouncing around the festival circuit and it’ll play the currently occurring New York event. Reviews put it at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. Germany has announced Everytime as the hopeful for International Feature Film. In this decade, half of their picks have made the final cut.
In 2022, All Quiet on the Western Front nabbed the gold. The following year, The Teachers’ Lounge was nominated with The Seed of the Sacred Fig achieving the same the year after that. Everytime will compete for attention with higher profile entries including The Black Ball, All of a Sudden, Fjord, Possible Love, and Fatherland. Yet I wouldn’t discount the possibility of this managing to sneak in. I haven’t predicted it yet, but I think it belongs in the top 10 contenders worth mentioning. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, psychological thriller Verity looks to top the box office this weekend over Tom Cruise’s Digger. All signs are indicating that it will. Michael Showalter directs with Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson, and Josh Hartnett headlining.
While it may double the opening performance of Cruise and company (that’s what I’m projecting), reviews for both features are not great. Verity is at 47% on Rotten Tomatoes with 44 on Metacritic (Digger currently has the exact same MC score).
This is Hathaway’s fifth theatrical release of 2026. The Odyssey gives her a great opportunity for a second Supporting Actress try and possible win 14 years after her podium trip for Les Miserables. The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mother Mary are both possibilities for Costume Design while The End of Oak Street hopes to get in for Visual Effects. Verity is the only Hathaway flick that appears to have no chance at awards consideration. To be fair, Amazon MGM didn’t make it for that and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
From 2003-2015, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s five directorial efforts in a row (21 Grams, Babel, Biutiful, Birdman, The Revenant) resulted in ten acting nominations at the Oscars and a win for Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant. The filmmaker himself collected two directorial victories in a row with Birdman and The Revenant while the former won Best Picture.
Tom Cruise is probably the biggest movie star on the planet over the last four decades. He’s a three-time Academy nominee (in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and supporting for Magnolia) who’s yet to be in the mix during the 21st century.
The collaboration of Iñárritu and Cruise for this weekend’s satire Digger was rightly looked at as a major awards contender that could finally land its lead a statue (not counting his honorary Oscar that came months ago). And why not honor John Goodman, a beloved character actor never up for an Academy Award, with a first go at Supporting Actor? Other costars include Riz Ahmed, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Jesse Plemons.
With the review embargo lifted, a lot of the aforementioned narrative has been buried. Rotten Tomatoes is at 51% with Metacritic even lower at 44. Critical reaction is widely varied. There are truly positive write-ups with others calling it an unmitigated disaster. Box office potential appears limited and I’m projecting it will bomb with just over $11 million out of the gate domestically.
Are the Oscar chances dead? In the main categories, a strong argument can be made in the affirmative. It may stand an outside shot at following the Don’t Look Up path. That 2021 political black comedy from Adam McKay holds similar numbers on RT/MC. The difference is that the 2026 lineup of BP contenders appears stronger and Up was generally considered a widely viewed Netflix effort. Digger seems headed for the stench of financial failure.
As for Cruise, he would have zero chance of winning. Without that narrative, I don’t see him getting into the final five. Conventional wisdom put Goodman in as the Supporting Actor hopeful. It’s Ahmed who’s being called the standout among the rest of the ensemble. Hüller was bandied about though her supporting turn in Project Hail Mary seems more feasible now and she has an even stronger chance in lead with Rose. Ultimately I doubt the cast factors into those races at all.
Digger‘s best and perhaps only opportunities to show up on Oscar night 2027 are for Makeup & Hairstyling and Production Design. I had it predicted for both in my update two days ago and I suspect that could remain the case moving forward. I’m slightly more confident about Makeup & Hairstyling. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
