Oscar Watch: The Woman in the Window

On paper, at least, Joe Wright’s The Woman in the Window has a whole lot of Oscar connections in it. The psychological thriller stars Amy Adams, recipient of six nominations who’s never won (she’s considered well overdue for a victory). Costars include Academy winners and nominees such as Gary Oldman, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Julianne Moore in addition to Anthony Mackie, Wyatt Russell, and Brian Tyree Henry. Screenwriter Tracy Letts has a Pulitzer Prize to his name. And Wright has seen two of his efforts (Atonement, Darkest Hour) nab Best Picture nods.

Window hits Netflix today after originally being planned for a fall 2019 premiere via 20th Century Fox. It was pushed back to May 2020 due to reshoots and the COVID-19 pandemic. The pic was finally snatched up by the streamer, foregoing a theatrical release. So there’s the question of whether this is even eligible for the Oscars since it’s not hitting the big screen. Not that it matters.

Word of mouth over the past several months has not been kind and the just lapsed review embargo confirms that. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 27% with many critics calling it a poor Hitchcock ripoff. Despite the many participants with a nexus to awards attention, Window appears more likely to garner Razzie mentions than anything at the big dance.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Army of the Dead

Zack Snyder’s zombie tale Army of the Dead hits hundreds of screens this weekend before its Netflix streaming premiere on May 21. Reviews are out and several indicate it’s a winner (especially the opening scene which is drawing raves). The Rotten Tomatoes score currently sits at 76%.

If an Oscar Watch post for this particular genre seems strange, I get it. I’m not talking about a Best Picture nod or lead actor recognition for Dave Bautista. However, some critics are pointing out Army‘s visuals. Just last year, the Netflix monster pic Love and Monsters scored a surprise nomination in Visual Effects.

Here’s the caveat: several contenders in the race from 2020 were pushed back to 2021. In other words, VE should be more of a crowded field this time around. That includes potential heavy hitters like Dune, Eternals, the fourth Matrix, Top Gun: Maverick, The Suicide Squad, and Spider-Man: No Way Home.

Having said that, if Netflix launches a serious campaign, Army could march to the shortlist in this specific category and a nod is not out of the question.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2020 Oscars Reaction

For a while, it didn’t look like this would be the case… but there were surprises to be had at the 93rd Annual Academy Awards and it wasn’t just about the winners. I didn’t expect Glenn Close to shake her groove thang to the late 1980s classic “Da Butt” by E.U., but it happened and it was pretty darn funny. I certainly didn’t expect Best Picture not to be the last category announced, but it happened in what turned out to be a poor decision. Memo to the Academy: make the biggest race of all the final one. It’s not that complicated.

There were also some unexpected twists in the categories themselves. Let’s get this out of the way: I went 13/20 in my picks. You won’t hear me bragging about that statistic. Until the final few minutes of the program (which did manage to run just a tad long), it started to seem like Nomadland might not be the big winner of the evening. It got there with expected wins in Picture and Chloe Zhao in Director (becoming the second woman to ever nab that prize). The surprise victory was Frances McDormand in Actress. By doing so, she became only the second performer to take that race three times (Katherine Hepburn did it on four occasions). McDormand won over my prediction of Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman. Most prognosticators who didn’t pick Mulligan went with Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. 

Nomadland led all films with 3 wins. We had six others with two: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling (correctly picked), Soul for Animated Feature and Score (got that right), Sound of Metal in Sound (yes) and Editing (where I incorrectly had The Trial of the Chicago 7), Mank in Production Design (bingo) and Cinematography (where I had Nomadland), Judas and the Black Messiah with Daniel Kaluuya in Supporting Actor (a no-brainer) and Song (where “Fight for You” was an upset victor and where I had “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami).

And then there’s The Father. Of the 8 Best Picture nominees, it was the only one that I had leaving empty-handed. Instead it took Adapted Screenplay over Nomadland. And then the late speculation of an Anthony Hopkins win over Rainey‘s Chadwick Boseman came to fruition. This really wasn’t a big shocker as Hopkins had just nabbed the BAFTA and this seemed like a genuine possibility. The decision of the producers to save Best Actor for last as opposed to Best Picture seems like they wanted to end on a dramatic note with Boseman getting the posthumous award. That backfired as Hopkins was named and he wasn’t even on video to accept. P.S. – it was Trial of the Chicago 7 that turned out as the lone BP nominee that left with zero hardware.

In other races, Promising Young Woman took Original Screenplay and Another Round won International Feature Film as expected. Same with Tenet in Visual Effects. In one of the better acceptance speeches of the night, Yuh-jung Youn emerged as Supporting Actress in Minari. I picked Time as somewhat of a spoiler choice in Documentary over My Octopus Teacher, but Octopus stood tall.

The team behind this year’s ceremony obviously had their work cut out for them. I appreciate that they mostly met the time limit. Beyond Yuh-jung, Another Round filmmaker Thomas Vinterberg and Chloe Zhao gave standout acceptance remarks. This ceremony itself won’t be too well remembered despite some best efforts… perhaps other than (and I didn’t think the post would end like this) Glenn Close and her surprise dance moves.

Breakdown of wins are as follows:

3 Wins

Nomadland

2 Wins

The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Soul, Sound of Metal

1 Win

Another Round, Minari, My Octopus Teacher, Promising Young Woman, Tenet

That’s all for now and thank you for following me all along the way in these many months of 2020 Oscar speculation!

Oscar Watch: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

As we wait to hear the Best Animated Feature at the Academy Awards this Sunday evening (hint: it’s Soul), we have a fresh possibility for the competition next year. Formerly titled Connected, Netflix premieres The Mitchells vs. the Machines on April 30. The computer animated sci-fi comedy comes from director Michael Rianda and is produced by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (the team behind 2019’s Oscar recipient Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and The Lego Movie franchise). Actors doing voice work include Abbi Jacobson, Danny McBride, Maya Rudolph, Eric Andre, Fred Armisen, Beck Bennett, Conan O’Brien, and Olivia Colman.

The Sony Pictures release was originally slated for theatrical release before the COVID-19 pandemic switched it to streaming. Reviews out today are nearly across the board positive with a current 96% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is early in the year and there’s eight more months of animated hopefuls to come. Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon is already out and could easily make the final cut. Pixar’s Luca (out this summer) is certainly one to keep an eye on. However, Mitchells has already established itself as a contender in the 2021 mix.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2020 Final Oscar Predictions

Blogger’s Note (04/23): After ever more careful consideration, I have decided to change my Best Actress prediction again. I am not reverting back to Carey Mulligan instead of Viola Davis. Did I mention this is a tough category??

Blogger’s Note (04/21): After careful consideration, I have decided to change my Best Actress prediction from my original Monday (04/19) post. Carey Mulligan is out in favor of Viola Davis… no other predictions have changed.

And here we go! After 8 months of lots and lots of speculation, it’s time to make my final picks in the races covering feature length films. I have finished up my 33 posts covering the nominees in Best Picture, Director and the four acting races.

The 93rd Academy Awards airs this Sunday evening. A couple of quick note before delving into the forecasts on the 20 categories. There are surefire frontrunners in a lot of competitions this year and that includes Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress (as well as most technical races). The real drama lies in the two leading acting competitions, especially Best Actress.

For each race, I will name my predicted winner and what I believe to be the runner-up. Without further adieu, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis: Nomadland has taken all the precursors it needs to: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA. I would say that in most recent years, there’s been some drama in Best Picture. Not this year. If there’s any chance of an upset, it could be Minari or Promising Young Woman. For a Green Book type of upset, that could be The Trial of the Chicago 7 and that’s what I’m picking as my #2. Yet let me be clear: anything not named Nomadland taking the biggest prize would be a huge upset at this point.

Predicted Winner: Nomadland

Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director

Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

Analysis: For reasons expressed above, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Chloe Zhao getting the gold. She’s won all the precursors and it’s difficult to even name a runner-up (I’ll go Fincher I suppose).

Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Runner-Up: David Fincher, Mank

Best Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

Analysis: Ugh. This is literally the most head scratching race of all. There is no favorite as the major precursors have split. Andra Day, in an upset, took the Globe. Carey Mulligan won Critics Choice. Viola Davis is the SAG recipient. Frances Mcdormand is the BAFTA victor. All of those precursors have a good or very good record of predicting the eventual Academy winner. Confused yet? Me too.

Vanessa Kirby is the least likely to take this and it’s not out of the question that she could. Day’s omission from SAG makes it tough for me to predict her. So we are left with Davis, McDormand, and Mulligan and they all could certainly be making a podium trip. With Nomadland almost surely taking Pic and Director and McDormand’s BAFTA win, it’s tempting to pick her. However, she’s won twice already and the last time was just three years ago. Promising Young Woman did very well in grabbing 5 nominations. Mulligan is a highly respected actress who’s only been nominated once before and this is a showy role that got a lot of attention. Davis’s SAG victory makes me lean toward her, but the Academy not giving Rainey a Best Picture nod gives me some pause.

So… my final decision is Mulligan… with zero degree of confidence. There’s great narratives for McDormand, Mulligan, and Davis so roll the dice with your pick and see what happens!

Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Runner-Up: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Actor

Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)

Analysis: For the duration of the precursor season, the late Chadwick Boseman appeared on a glide path to Oscar coronation. That’s until Anthony Hopkins took the BAFTA and made this race considerably more interesting. I will also say that Riz Ahmed has his supporters, but this is a two person race. I do truly believe Hopkins has a very good shot, but I ultimately just can’t pick against Boseman.

Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

Analysis: This was a wide open category for a while, but Yuh-jung Youn’s recent victories at SAG and BAFTA came at the right time. There is upset potential from both Maria Bakalova and the eight times nominated and never won Glenn Close, but Youn is the safest pick.

Predicted Winner: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

Runner-Up: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Analysis: Daniel Kaluuya has steamrolled through precursors and this is definitely the easiest pick of the acting derbies. I’m not even the least bit worried about his costar Lakeith Stanfield splitting votes.

Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Runner-Up: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (I guess)

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis: If Mulligan doesn’t win Best Actress (which is quite possible), Promising should still walk away with a win here. Minari and Trial are threats, but feeling pretty confident with this one.

Predicted Winner: Promising Young Woman

Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger

Analysis: While Nomadland looks like a shoo-in in Picture, I could see The Father threatening it in this race. I’m really tempted to go with it, but I’m sticking with Nomadland. Don’t be surprised if The Father takes this though.

Predicted Winner: Nomadland

Runner-Up: The Father

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers

Analysis: Not wasting much word count here. Pixar is dominant in this category. Soul has dominated the other shows.

Predicted Winner: Soul

Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time

Analysis: My Octopus Teacher has surprisingly emerged as the favorite due to precursor wins. There’s certainly a narrative for its win as the other more serious selections could split votes. That said, while Octopus is the safe pick, I’m going for a bit of an upset with the acclaimed Time. For those filling out ballots for work and friend pools, Octopus might be the way to go.

Predicted Winner: Time

Runner-Up: My Octopus Teacher

Best International Feature Film

Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?

Analysis: It’s going to be Another Round. It’s wrapped up the precursors it needs and it would be foolish to pick against it.

Predicted Winner: Another Round

Runner-Up: Quo Vadis, Aida?

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis: Mank could be and should be a trendy upset choice, but Nomadland is most likely to grab this.

Predicted Winner: Nomadland

Runner-Up: Mank

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio

Analysis: Another sturdy frontrunner here with Ma Rainey.

Predicted Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Runner-Up: Emma

Best Film Editing

Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis: For some time, it looked like this might be the one award Trial would receive. And then Sound of Metal started winning the big precursors. Sound is probably a little ahead by most standards, but I’m still leaning Trial for its flashier editing. This is essentially a coin flip in my view.

Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Runner-Up: Sound of Metal

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio

Analysis: Another tech race where Rainey seems way out in front.

Predicted Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Runner-Up: Pinocchio

Best Original Score

Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

Analysis: Like in Animated Feature, Soul has killed it in the precursors. This is not a tough choice.

Predicted Winner: Soul

Runner-Up: Minari

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

Analysis: This is a tough choice. I’ve had this nagging feeling that if “Husavik” got in, it could definitely win and I still feel that way. Then there’s Diane Warren who’s behind “lo si”. She’s been nominated 12 times without a win and the overdue factor is real. “Speak Now” is probably the safe choice. I really believe that we could see a surprise here, but I’ll reluctantly stick with Leslie Odom Jr. getting an Oscar for the One Night in Miami track.

Predicted Winner: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

Runner-Up: “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead

Best Production Design

Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

Analysis: This is absolutely where Mank should win and that means I think it goes 1/10.

Predicted Winner: Mank

Runner-Up: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Sound

Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal

Analysis: Sound of Metal has had this wrapped up for some time. Plain and simple.

Predicted Winner: Sound of Metal

Runner-Up: Soul

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet

Analysis: This appears to be a two picture battle between The Midnight Sky and Tenet, but the latter seems to have moved fairly comfortably in front.

Predicted Winner: Tenet

Runner-Up: The Midnight Sky

That means I believe the following pictures will walk away with these numbers in terms of victories:

4 Wins

Nomadland

3 Wins

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2 Wins

Promising Young Woman, Soul

1 Win

Another Round, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Time, The Trial of the Chicago 7

For the 8 Best Picture hopefuls, I’m projecting that only The Father will go home completely empty-handed (though it could certainly happen to Trial as well).

I will, of course, have a recap up with my thoughts on the show and how I did shortly after Sunday’s ceremony. Stay tuned!

Oscars 2020: The Case of Lakeith Stanfield

The performance of Lakeith Stanfield in Shaka King’s Judas and the Black Messiah is last up in my Case Of posts for Supporting Actor hopefuls. For the previous four write-ups, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/04/01/oscars-2020-the-case-of-sacha-baron-cohen/

Oscars 2020: The Case of Daniel Kaluuya

Oscars 2020: The Case of Leslie Odom Jr.

Oscars 2020: The Case of Paul Raci

The Case for Lakeith Stanfield:

The past couple of years has brought Stanfield exposure in acclaimed projects ranging from Sorry to Bother You to Knives Out and Uncut Gems. His work here brought career best reviews in his burgeoning career.

The Case Against Lakeith Stanfield:

His nomination came as a total surprise. For starters, Warner Bros campaigned for him in lead actor, but Academy voters went ahead and ignored that. Then there’s the matter of his costar Daniel Kaluuya (they were also in Get Out together). Kaluuya’s win seems assured next weekend as he’s had a clean sweep at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and BAFTA.

The Verdict

According to his own Twitter feed, Stanfield even seemed blindsided by his nod. Judas will probably only get one Oscar and it will be in this race. That will be for Stanfield’s costar.

My Case Of posts have concluded! Thanks to all who have perused all 33 of them. The next matter of business… final Oscar predictions and they’re coming your way very shortly!

Oscars 2020: The Case of Yuh-jung Youn

The Case Of posts for Supporting Actress hopefuls reaches its end with Yuh-jung Youn for Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari. If you missed the previous four posts, they’re available here:

Oscars 2020: The Case of Maria Bakalova

Oscars 2020: The Case of Glenn Close

Oscars 2020: The Case of Olivia Colman

Oscars 2020: The Case of Amanda Seyfried

The Case for Yuh-jung Youn:

Momentum. Already a legendary actress in South Korea, the 73-year-old has found American success with her role in Minari, which picked up a sturdy 6 nods on nomination morning. Youn has won the latest precursors to pick up steam with the SAG Awards and BAFTA.

The Case Against Yuh-jung Youn:

She has not fared as well with other precursors. Youn wasn’t nominated at the Golden Globes and lost the Critics Choice prize to Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), who could be her stiffest competition. There’s also still the chance that the Academy will finally give Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) her overdue trophy.

The Verdict

There was certainly a time where this acting race seemed like the biggest tossup. That has certainly been replaced by Best Actress. While I believe this category could go three different ways, Youn has emerged as the most likely candidate.

My Case Of posts will conclude with Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah…

Oscars 2020: The Case of Steven Yeun

My Case Of posts in the Best Actor field at the Oscars reaches its end with Steven Yeun in Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari. If you didn’t catch the first four posts, you can find them here:

Oscars 2020: The Case of Riz Ahmed

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/04/04/oscars-2020-the-case-of-chadwick-boseman/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/04/10/oscars-2020-the-case-of-anthony-hopkins/

Oscars 2020: The Case of Gary Oldman

The Case for Steven Yeun

The first Asian-American thespian to receive a Best Actor nomination, Yeun’s career has been on a hot streak lately and that includes a critically heralded supporting performance in 2018’s Burning. That work prompted some Oscar chatter that never came to fruition. Minari performed as well as expected (maybe even a bit better) with 6 nods including Yeun and his costar Yuh-jung Youn in Supporting Actress. He was also given nominations at the Critics Choice Awards and SAG Awards.

The Case Against Steven Yeun

Yeun was ignored at the Golden Globes. Best Actor appears to be a two-person competition between Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Yeun has yet to log a significant victory in the precursors.

The Verdict

Minari‘s best chance at a win in the major categories lies with Youn and not Yeun.

My Case Of posts will continue with Yeun’s costar Yuh-jung Youn…

Oscars 2020: The Case of Carey Mulligan

Carey Mulligan’s performance in Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman wraps up my Case Of posts for the five Best Actress contenders. If you missed the first four, they can be read here:

Oscars 2020: The Case of Viola Davis

Oscars 2020: The Case of Andra Day

Oscars 2020: The Case of Vanessa Kirby

Oscars 2020: The Case of Frances McDormand

The Case for Carey Mulligan

Earning her second nomination following 2009’s An Education, Mulligan’s work here was part of Promising‘s five nominations. She’s managed nods in all the major precursors (with the surprising exception of BAFTA) and won the Critics Choice Award.

The Case Against Carey Mulligan

I predicted Mulligan to take the Golden Globe and she lost to Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday). I predicted her for the SAG Award and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) took the prize. The wide open Best Actress race is hard to pin down.

The Verdict

Mulligan absolutely could win next week, but so could do Davis, Day, or McDormand. I’ll be going back and forth on this one until I make my final predictions on Wednesday.

My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Yeun in Minari…

Oscars 2020: The Case of Chloe Zhao

My Case Of posts in the Best Director category reaches its fifth and final hopeful with Chloe Zhao for Nomadland. If you missed the previous four, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/26/oscars-2020-the-case-of-lee-isaac-chung/

Oscars 2020: The Case of Emerald Fennell

Oscars 2020: The Case of David Fincher

Oscars 2020: The Case of Thomas Vinterberg

The Case for Chloe Zhao

Nomadland is absolutely the frontrunner to win Best Picture and oftentimes it matches with director (though not quite as much in recent years). Even if something upsets Nomadland in the big race, Zhao has made it a clean sweep at the precursors and that includes BAFTA, DGA, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and many other regional critics group awards. Zhao (who will next take on the MCU’s Eternals) will also make some history by becoming the second female to take the gold after Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) in 2009.

The Case Against Chloe Zhao

To be blunt – there really isn’t one. I suppose only if the Academy doesn’t embrace Nomadland like other awards bodies have and that appears unlikely.

The Verdict

Some of the major categories have some suspense around them. This one doesn’t. Zhao appears primed for victory.

My Case Of posts will continue with Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman…