Tag: Jesse Plemons

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.

One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.

Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.

Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.

For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).

Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.

In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.

OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)

17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)

23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Regina King, Shirley

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Strangers

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Strangers

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilties:

6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Maestro

Oscar Predictions: Killers of the Flower Moon

All 206 minutes of Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon have been breathlessly awaited by pundits ahead of its Cannes premiere. That occurred today some five months before its domestic release. The crime western reunites the legendary filmmaker with his two most famous and frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro in this adaptation of David Grann’s 2017 non-fiction novel. Lily Gladstone (in what’s long been pegged as a role with awards potential) costars alongside Jesse Plemons, Brendan Fraser, and John Lithgow.

On paper, Killers has looked like a surefire contender for Oscar glory ever since it was announced. Scorsese has seen five of his past eight films nominated for Best Picture: The Aviator, The Departed (which won), Hugo, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Irishman. As mentioned, the 1920s set tale of murders among the Osage Nation comes with a runtime that just exceeds its reported $200 million budget. Apple TV footed the bill, but it will see a theatrical bow prior to any streaming release.

Some of the early critical reaction does gripe about the length (same went for Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman). Yet most reviews indicate this will be the gold player that we assumed. That last Marty movie scored 10 nods. This could match it or even exceed it. Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by the director and Eric Roth), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound are all feasible. The early Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 100%.

As for the acting derbies, Leonardo DiCaprio is drawing raves and should be in line for his seventh acting nom (his sole win being 2015’s The Revenant). There was some question as to whether Gladstone would contend in lead or supporting. The buzz indicates the latter is more likely and it appears she’s a shoo-in for inclusion. I had her at #1 in my ranked predictions a few days ago and that may not change. A bigger question was Supporting Actor. It sounds like the role Jesse Plemons plays is relatively small (popping up in the third act). He could still sneak in (as he did in 2021 for The Power of the Dog). The studio’s campaigners could opt to throw their full attention to De Niro. The 79-year-old new dad looks to grab his eighth nod and first since 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. You can pencil him in with DiCaprio and Gladstone.

Can you find the nominees in this picture? There could be plenty for Killers of the Flower Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 14th Edition

My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.

At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. May December (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)

24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Bikeriders

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

David Fincher, The Killer

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)

Adam Driver, Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Paul Dano, Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

After I gave you my unranked initial picks back in March in the six major Oscar categories, it’s time to get numbers involved!

April brings us the first ranked predictions for the four acting categories, director, and picture. We begin with Supporting Actor and the usual caveats:

  • Some of these performers could end up in lead Actor. For example, both Willem Dafoe and Ryan Gosling are big question marks as to where their placement will end up being. For now, I have them here.
  • Some of these releases could be pushed back to 2024. Robert De Niro and Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon, Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, and Glynn Turman in Rustin were all first slated for 2022.
  • And, of course, some of these performances and their pictures will simply fall by the wayside and actors I haven’t even considered will surface on the festival circuit and on the release calendar.

In 2022, my initial ranked picks in Supporting Actor correctly had the eventual winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) in the top five. He was the only eventual nominee listed in the 15 possibilities.

Let’s see how it shakes out this time around with the inaugural ranked forecast for our Supporting Actors!

TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

5. John Magaro, Past Lives

Other Possibilities:

6. Charles Melton, May December

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

9. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong

11. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

12. Ben Affleck, Air

13. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin

15. Paul Dano, Dumb Money

Best Supporting Actress is up next!

Best Picture 2021: The Final Five

We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.

As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:

Belfast

Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.

Don’t Look Up

Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.

Drive My Car

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.

Dune

Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.

King Richard

Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.

Licorice Pizza

Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.

Nightmare Alley

Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.

The Power of the Dog

Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.

West Side Story

Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.

That means my final 2021 five is:

Belfast

CODA

Dune

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.

If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
Best Picture 2017: The Final Five
Best Picture 2018: The Final Five
Best Picture 2019: The Final Five
Best Picture 2020: The Final Five

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Just as I did last year, I waited an entire two weeks from the previous ceremony before pontificating on the next Oscars. There is my impossibly early look at the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards and it begins with Supporting Actor.

Let’s be clear that many of the 15 names I mention today will probably not be on the radar screen a little less than a year from now. Release dates will get pushed back and make some hopefuls ineligible. Some pictures will simply fizzle out. Roles will be smaller than anticipated or even bigger and perhaps contend in the lead derby.

With the four acting races and director, I’ll give you my five current picks with ten other possibilities. When it gets to Picture later this week, I’ll project my ten and list fifteen others.

In 2022, when I made my super duper early picks in Supporting Actor, it yielded none of the eventual contenders. Like I said… it’s early. Some of the names I said last time around were Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, Glynn Turman in Rustin, and Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. All three of those movies were pushed to 2023 and that’s why they materialize again.

Best Supporting Actress will be posted tomorrow. This is my snapshot of Supporting Actor.

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Josh O’Connor, Challengers

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Air

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Book of Clarence

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Matthew Goode, Freud’s Last Stand

Stephen Graham, Blitz

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Tahar Rahim, Napoleon

Glynn Turman, Rustin

2022: The Year of Hong Chau

My Year Of posts focused on six performers who gave audiences a memorable 2022 culminates with what I’ll consider the Utility Player prize. This goes to a character actor who improves the viewing experience of the projects they’re in. We could coin it the Patricia Clarkson or J.T. Walsh Award.

This year, I’m giving it to Hong Chau. Five years ago, she received Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for her supporting part in Alexander Payne’s Downsizing. An Oscar nod was expected to follow, but didn’t materialize.

In the half decade since, she’s been seen more in small screen material. That changed in ’22 with two critically heralded roles in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale and Mark Mylod’s The Menu. For the former, her Liz (caretaker and confidant to Brendan Fraser’s lead) could mark Chau’s first Academy recognition. For the latter, her Elsa (second in command to the sadistic chef played by Ralph Fiennes) was a highlight in a terrific cast.

At the Cannes Film Festival in May, another Chau performance received acclaim. Kelly Reichardt’s Showing Up features her with Michelle Williams in a dramedy that sports a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score. It’ll be released stateside in 2023. So will Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City where she’ll be part of his typical impressive ensemble that includes Tom Hanks, Tilda Swinton, Margot Robbie, Edward Norton, and many more. Chau is also cast in Yorgos Lanthimos’s And with Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, and Margaret Qualley.

Among all those well-known filmmakers and stars, Chau stands out and earns a final slot in the Year Of write-ups.

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actor Race

With two months to go for 2022 releases to make their mark with awards voters, it’s a opportune time to assess the six major Oscar races. That would be Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

It begins with Supporting Actor. Over the past couple of years, this has been the category that’s confounded me the most during this juncture in the calendar.

That was a different story three years ago. In late October of 2019, I correctly identified 4 out of the eventual 5 nominees. This included winner Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as well as Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), and Al Pacino (The Irishman). The other nominee – Joe Pesci for The Irishman – was in my #6 spot.

For the unpredictable year that was 2020 (due to constantly shifting release dates because of COVID), I only named 2 of the 5 hopefuls two months out – Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still had eventual victor Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected for lead actor until the studio announced him for supporting.

In 2021, I made a point to say that the Supporting Actor derby was wide open in late October. And that was evidenced in my only identifying 1 of the eventual Supporting Actor quintet in the Halloween time frame – Ciaran Hinds in Belfast. I had Troy Kotsur (CODA), who would take the gold statue, in 10th place. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) was in first place and he missed out. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), who made the cut, was in 8th place. His costar Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) weren’t listed at all.

Which brings us to 2022 and at this spooky time of year, I would say this competition is up in the air with no obvious frontrunner. 12 months ago, however, I couldn’t have imagined I’d kick off the speculation with this sentence…

The Supporting Actor discussion starts with Ke Huy Quan.

The 51-year-old actor belongs in the mid 80s cinematic Hall of Fame with his turns as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies. His return to acting in Everything Everywhere All at Once has been met with raves. It’s also undeniable that his win would be a heckuva Academy narrative nearly 40 years after his iconic child performances. I’ve had him listed in first place for weeks and that remains.

In four of the last five years, we’ve witnessed double nominees in Supporting Actor. Last year it was the aforementioned Smit-McPhee and Plemons for The Power of the Dog. In 2020, we had the winner Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah and his costar Lakeith Stanfield. 2019’s Irishman double duo was Pacino and Pesci. Five years ago, it was Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Martin McDonagh directed Billboards and his follow-up is The Banshees of Inisherin. Brendan Gleeson has sat in the #2 position for several prediction posts in a row. He’s a threat to take the prize. I believe his costar Barry Keoghan may also get in.

Banshees is not the only viable option for double nominees. Ke Huy Quan’s Doom maker Steven Spielberg has The Fabelmans. Before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival, we wondered whether Paul Dano or Seth Rogen (or both) would be the likely nominee(s). Post screening, scene (just one scene) stealer Judd Hirsch bubbled up while Rogen’s viability dwindled. Dano’s work is understated and certainly not as flashy as Hirsch’s brief turn. That leads me to put Hirsch in with Dano on the outside looking in. I’ll admit it’s a coin flip.

Damien Chazelle’s Babylon screens for critics in two weeks. There’s a trio of possibilities with Brad Pitt, Jovan Adepo, and Tobey Maguire. I’ve had Pitt in my 5 previously. It’s fair to speculate whether his recent tabloid headlines could hinder him. We’ll know more once reviews roll in.

Ben Whishaw in Women Talking is a trendy selection and for good reason. I’m not completely sold as voters could opt to focus only on his female cast members Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (and maybe others) in Supporting Actress. Yet it feels wrong to keep him out right now.

You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time the five contenders all came from Best Picture nominees. I’m not wild about the fact that my projections currently do. There’s a few names that could get in from movies I’m not putting in BP list. We have Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, Jeremy Strong or Anthony Hopkins in Armageddon Time, Mark Rylance in Bones and All, Micheal Ward in Empire of Light, Don Cheadle in White Noise, and Tom Hanks in Elvis. Of that group, I’m starting to flirt with the idea of Rylance being the guy. He scored an upset win here with Bridge of Spies in 2015 over Sylvester Stallone in Creed and Bones has its ardent admirers. I wouldn’t discount the Redmayne pick as he’s a Best Actor winner in 2014 for The Theory of Everything who was nominated again the following year with The Danish Girl. If Elvis manages a BP nod (not out of the question), this would increase the inclusion of Hanks. I do have Triangle of Sadness in my BP ten and that could mean a third nomination for Woody Harrelson.

Bottom line: I feel pretty confident about Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson. Everything everywhere else is up in the air.

With that said, here’s my state of the race:

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Tom Hanks, Elvis

My deep dive with the Supporting Actress field is next!

2022 Oscar Predictions: July 31st Edition

As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.

Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not come out until 2023. Variety and Deadline essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to include Killers in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. If Killers ends up back on the 2022 calendar, Variety and Deadline have some explaining to do…

Another development is that Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.

The Killers announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winner Triangle of Sadness replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice opener White Noise replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room for Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally, She Said rises in Adapted Screenplay.

That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’s Babylon ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to go all the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. That was 16 years ago. Babylon could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.

I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes. The Son is now first in Adapted Screenplay since Killers has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano from The Fabelmans. 

Another alteration – Empire of Light falls out of Original Screenplay with The Banshees of Inisherin in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.

That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!

Best Picture 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bardo (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Son (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)

12. White Noise (PR: 12) (E)

13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)

14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (E)

15. Elvis (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (+3)

17. Broker (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Till (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Amsterdam (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 25) (+2)

24. The Woman King (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Hirokazu Kore-eda, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Chinoye Chukwu, Till

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (E)

15. Emma Corrin, Lady Chatterley’s Lover (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frances McDormand, Women Talking 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (E)

13. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 14) (E)

15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)

11. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 11) (E)

12. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 12) (E)

13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Whoopi Goldberg, Till 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tar (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Broker (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Menu (PR: 11) (E)

12. Amsterdam (PR: 12) (E)

13. Bros (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Son (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)

4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)

5. She Said (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bones and All (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Till (PR: 7) (E)

8 .The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Thirteen Lives (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Good Nurse (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Woman King (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Living (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Killers of the Flower Moon

Elvis 

2022 Oscar Predictions: July 24th Edition

The release schedule for 2022 is always shifting (though thankfully not as much as in 2020 and 2021). This week, there were reports that Netflix’s Rustin will be pushed to 2023. While this isn’t 100% confirmed, it’s enough that I’ve moved it out of contention and that’s significant. I had it pegged for a Best Picture nomination as well as Actor (Colman Domingo) and Supporting Actress (Audra McDonald) in my post from 7 days ago.

The beneficiary of Rustin falling out of contention? None other than Top Gun: Maverick. Let me be clear – I’m very skeptical that it receives a nod in the biggest race of all. Yet it’s hard to ignore the potency of its box office supremacy over the summer. Oscar voters will know that audiences will root for its inclusion. And that could be enough to push it past the finish line.

In Actor, Bardo‘s Daniel Gimenez Cacho replaces Domingo while Zoe Kazan (She Said) rises to the final five in Supporting Actress. There’s another change in Actress as I’m putting Cate Blanchett (Tar) in the mix over Regina King (Shirley). The latter is another Netflix effort where the release date seems uncertain. If they verify 2022 in the near future, she could (and probably would) get back in the mix.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)

10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)

12. White Noise (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)

14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Elvis (PR: 16) (E)

17. Till (PR: 21) (+4)

18. Broker (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Decision to Leave (PR: 22) (+3)

20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Amsterdam (PR: 23) (E)

24. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rustin

The Killer

Don’t Worry Darling 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)

9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (E)

10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (E)

12. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Chinoye Chukwu, Till (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 12) (E)

13. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 13) (E)

14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annette Bening, Nyad 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Song-Kang Ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (E)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, Rustin 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Audra McDonald, Rustin

Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth

Jodie Foster, Nyad 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Glynn Turman, Rustin 

Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tar (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Broker (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Amsterdam (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Bros (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Rustin 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Till (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Woman King (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Thirteen Lives (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Bones and All (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

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