Tag: Ridley Scott

September 4-7 Box Office Predictions

There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

By Any Means Box Office Prediction

As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.

The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.

Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.

As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.

And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. By Any Means

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.

After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.

The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.

Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.

With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).

Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Dog Stars

While Ridley Scott hasn’t had a major Oscar player in over a decade (2015’s The Martian), three out of his last five features have received at least one nomination. Christopher Plummer was up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s All the Money in the World, 2021’s House of Gucci got a nod in Makeup & Hairstyling, and 2023’s Napoleon scored three mentions (Costume Design, Production Design, Visual Effects). 2021’s The Last Duel and 2024’s Gladiator II went empty-handed even though both were considered possibilities in some acting and tech races.

His latest is The Dog Stars and the post-apocalyptic thriller is out this weekend. Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Allison Janney, Guy Pearce, and Benedict Wong fill out the cast. It is expected to struggle at the box office and critical reaction is weak. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 45% with Metacritic at 51. While Scott’s previous pics have at least contended or been in contention for awards, Dog won’t be expected to pop up anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 28-30 Box Office Predictions

August at the box office should close out like July did with Spider-Man: Brand New Day ruling the charts. Coyote vs. Acme, the live-action/animated hybrid with a bumpy journey to theaters and Ridley Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama The Dog Stars are the fresh challengers to the throne and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Coyote vs. Acme Box Office Prediction
The Dog Stars Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros axed Coyote as a tax write-off as the Looney Tunes tale (shot in 2022) finally was picked up by Ketchup Entertainment. They hope to squeeze an opening weekend in the high teens though my low teens projection could mean third place.

That’s because the MCU’s Spidey adventure should see a fifth weekend in 1st with a drop in the low to mid 40s. The Odyssey could rise from third to second as Insidious: Out of the Further could see a sophomore frame plummet in the 60% range.

I’m putting Further in a close race with The Dog Stars for fourth place as I don’t see the latter finding much of an audience.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. The Dog Stars

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (August 21-23)

The sixth entry of the Insidious horror franchise was no match for Tom Holland as Brand New Day spent a fourth weekend as the champ. Spidey took in $39 million, just ahead of my $38 million prediction for $854 million total. This week it will become the second highest grossing domestic feature in history (unadjusted for inflation) behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million).

Insidious: Out of the Further settled for second with $25.1 million, under my $29.7 million call. While its numbers are just fine considering the reported $18 million budget, it did not match the $33 million that predecessor The Red Door opened to in 2023.

The Odyssey was third with $19.7 million compared to my $17.1 million take as the epic adventure has amassed $539 million in six weeks. It has now surpassed The Dark Knight ($534 million) to become Christopher Nolan’s largest stateside earner.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth in weekend #2 with $9.1 million, in line with my $9.6 million forecast. The animated sequel stands at $35 million.

The End of Oak Street, another dino movie, rounded out the top five with $8.7 million (I said $8.2 million) for $37 million after two weeks.

Jason Statham’s Mutiny was sixth with $7.7 million as the star’s latest action thriller premiered close to my $7.7 million projection.

Tony, focused on a formative summer in the life of Anthony Bourdain, expanded nationwide and was seventh with $5 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall tally is $6.6 million.

Finally, comedy Spa Weekend fizzled in ninth with $3 million though that is ahead of my $2.3 million prognosis.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Dog Stars Box Office Prediction

Adapting Peter Heller’s 2012 novel, the post-apocalyptic tale The Dog Stars arrives in theaters August 28th. Still going strong at age 88, Ridley Scott directs a cast led by Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Allison Janney, Guy Pearce, and Benedict Wong.

Originally slated for March, Stars hits multiplexes at a sleepier box office time with summer winding down. Sporting a reported budget north of $100 million, profitability could be a challenge for 20th Century Studios production. I can’t imagine this getting over $15 million out of the gate.

I suspect this may not even reach double digits unless buzz picks up considerably in the coming days. I’ll put it in high single digits for a rough start.

The Dog Stars opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my Coyote vs. Acme prediction, click here:

Coyote vs. Acme Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Death of Robin Hood

A dark interpretation of a folkloric character portrayed many times on film, Hugh Jackman has title role status in The Death of Robin Hood. Out June 19th, costars include Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Murray Bartlett, and Noah Jupe. Michael Sarnoski, maker of Pig and A Quiet Place: Day One, directs.

Mr. Jackman is generally being appreciated for his downbeat take on the part. Reviews are varied with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. That’s more than 2010’s Robin Hood from Ridley Scott and starring Jackman’s Les Miserables singing partner Russell Crowe. It’s far better than 2018’s version with Taron Egerton, but the critical reaction does not indicate the A24 release will play in awards season. I doubt its distributor will prioritize it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Director Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.

So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).

The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.

Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?

Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.

Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.

James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.

Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.

RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.

Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.

I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.

Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.

That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.

So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.

And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.

DGA Predicted Nominees

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Jan 3-5 Box Office Predictions

2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.

While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.

The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).

Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:

1. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million

2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. Nosferatu

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

5. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $13 million

6. A Complete Unknown

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (December 27-29)

In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.

Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.

Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.

Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.

Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.

The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.

Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.

Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.

In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.

Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Kraven the Hunter and anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim hope to get lucky at the box office this weekend while Moana 2 and Wicked look to maintain the 1-2 spots. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Kraven the Hunter Box Office Prediction
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim Box Office Prediction

Kraven arrives after multiple delays amid muted buzz. It will hope for numbers closer to the Venom franchise as opposed to Madame Web, but that could be wishful thinking. My low to mid teens forecast puts in third behind the fourth frame of Wicked.

As for Rings, it could exceed expectations simply due to brand recognition. While some anime fans could turn up in addition to Tolkien aficionados, I have it flopping in fourth barely ahead of Gladiator II.

Moana 2 should manage a third weekend in 1st with a mid 40s decline.

Here’s how I see the high five playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $27.5 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

3. Kraven the Hunter

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (December 6-8)

The post Thanksgiving holiday weekend saw even bigger declines than I figured with the top four remaining unchanged. Disney’s Moana 2, after its record shattering debut, fell 63% to $51.2 million compared to my $55.1 million prediction. Nevertheless the Mouse Hunt smash sequel has amassed $299 million since its start.

Wicked was second with $36.4 million (down 55%) and I incorrectly had it holding steadier with $48 million. In three weeks, the Golden Globe nominated Best Musical or Comedy has taken off with an astounding $322 million in three weeks.

Gladiator II was third with $12.5 million, again not matching my loftier $14.8 million projection. Ridley Scott’s follow-up brought its three-week tally to $132 million.

Red One held the four spot at $7 million (I said $7.6 million). The holiday offering continues to inch toward nine digits with $85 million in four weeks.

Finally, epic Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule was fifth with $4.8 million from Friday to Sunday. That didn’t match my $5.9 million expectation though it has made $9.3 million since being unveiled on Wednesday.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 6-8 Box Office Predictions

The post Thanksgiving frame, as it normally is, should be ruled by leftovers as Indian action fest Pushpa 2: The Rule looks to be the only newcomer in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Pushpa 2: The Rule Box Office Prediction

Moana 2 decimated all Turkey Day weekend records (more on that below). The Mouse House sequel might see a drop in the high 50s to low 60s range and that would still be good for $50M+ in its sophomore outing.

It should manage to edge phenomenon Wicked in its third go-round. However, if the Broadway adaptation only dips 40% or below, it could leapfrog Moana for the #1 spot. I have it easing in the low to mid 40s.

Gladiator II and Red One should stay in 3rd and 4th with Pushpa 2 in the mid singe digits for the five spot.

Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Moana 2

Predicted Gross: $55.1 million

2. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $48 million

3. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Red One

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Pushpa 2: The Rule

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (November 29-December 1)

Disney’s Frozen II went into Thanksgiving 2024 with the best ever five-day take over the holiday. Moana 2 topped it with $100 million to spare! The follow-up to 2016’s original surpassed expectations with $139.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $225.4 million since its Wednesday bow. That crushes my respective takes of $92.1 million and $130.3 million. As anticipated, it did propel the box office to its highest Thanksgiving earnings of all time.

Wicked kept bringing in crowds in second with $81.1 million, zooming past my $71.6 million forecast. Already the largest grossing Broadway adaptation in history, the two-week tally is $263 million.

Gladiator II was third with $31 million, slashing beyond my $27.5 million prediction. The Ridley Scott sequel to his Best Picture winner stands at $111 million after two outings.

Fourth place was Red One, which declined only 4% for $12.7 million. I was less charitable at $9.4 million and the three-week total is $75 million.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever rounded out the top five at $3.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside of the high five and it has made $31 million after four weeks.

Venom: The Last Dance, which I had in 5th, was 7th with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) for $137 million in six weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…