A pair of Academy Award recipients headline the thriller Mother’s Instinct from Benoît Delhomme. A remake of a 2018 French flick from Olivier Masset-Depasse (which itself was based on a 2012 novel by Barbara Abel), Jessica Chastain (Best Actress victor for 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Anne Hathaway (Supporting Actress honoree for 2012’s Les Miserables) are feuding housewives in the 1960s. Josh Charles, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Caroline Lagerfelt costar.
Stateside distribution is still being worked out, but Instinct came out in the U.K. this past week. Reviews thus far are a bit on the basic side with a 58% RT rating. Despite a handful of nominations and the two wins between the two leads, this does not appear to be an awards player. The only exception could be the period piece costumes, but this could well be forgotten by the time ballots are being filled out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Despite being a well-known horror series that’s been around for nearly half a century, The First Omen is the first franchise entry in nearly two decades. Serving as a prequel to the 1976 original, Arkasha Stevenson makes her directorial debut with a cast including Nell Tiger Free, Tawfeek Barhom, Sônia Braga, Ralph Ineson, and Bill Nighy.
Genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately from Immaculate to Imaginary to Late Night with the Devil. 20th Century Studios is hoping the brand name helps here, but that could be a stretch. As mentioned, you have to go back 18 years to the last time we had an Omen flick. The 2006 remake premiered in the summer of 2006 and capitalized by debuting on Tuesday, June 6th of that year (get it?). Despite poor reviews, the gambit paid off at first with a $16 million start from Friday to Sunday and $36 million when factoring in those extra three days of release. However, it managed to tumble 65% in its sophomore outing and wound up with a so-so $54 million domestically.
All of that exposition is a way of saying that this franchise doesn’t have the juice of a Conjuring or Insidious or even Evil Dead, to name some. There’s always the chance that horror exceeds expectations. With that caveat, I’ll say low teens is where this lands with a famously unlucky number.
The First Omen opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
The previous four features in Universal’s MonsterVerse franchise have yielded precisely one Oscar nomination and it was for the movie without Godzilla in the title. That would be the second feature 2017’s Kong: Skull Island for its Visual Effects (it lost to Blade Runner 2049). The other entries with the jolly green giant on the poster – 2014’s Godzilla, 2019’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and 2021’s Godzilla vs. Kong – didn’t make the VE competition or any other.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is out this Easter weekend and reviews are mixed. Adam Wingard directs with Rebecca Hall, Brian Tyree Henry, Dan Stevens, Kaylee Hottle, Alex Ferns, and Fala Chen among the human cast. The monster mash sits below the 76% RT score that (strangely enough) Godzilla, Skull Island, and Godzilla vs. Kong share. The 62% rating is above the 42% that King of the Monsters was saddled with.
Visual Effects is really the only possibility unless there’s a surprise Sound nod. The VE are being singled out by some writers. What’s transpired already in the MonsterVerse suggests it’s an uphill battle for final five inclusion. Academy voters also honored the title character just last year when Japan’s Godzilla Minus One won the category (giving Godzilla his first gold statue). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Unlike 2016’s ballyhooed female Ghostbusters reboot or 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife (which served as a sequel to the first two), Frozen Empire doesn’t need to burden itself with spending time introducing new characters to mix with the oldies and three-year-old newbies. The fifth franchise feature, unlike Afterlife, doesn’t have to employ a long windup before it nourishes our nostalgic hankerings. Unfortunately it still does yet I found it slightly more fulfilling than its two predecessors. That’s not sizzling praise, but I wasn’t totally cold to its charms and it’s the fresher characters that often shine.
You may recall that Afterlife introduced us to Egon Spengler’s brood that he abandoned for what turned out to be noble reasons. Granddaughter Phoebe (Mckenna Grace) is Harold Ramis’s spitting image in look, spirit, and overall nerdiness. She’s moved from Oklahoma to NYC along with mom (Carrie Coon), stepdad (Paul Rudd), and brother (Finn Wolfhard) and they’ve set up shop in that iconic firehouse where their patriarch slid down the pole with the OG ‘Busters. They are carrying on the family tradition and, yes, it makes them feel good until Mayor Walter Peck (William Atherton, returning after four decades after a memorable role in the original) sidelines Phoebe. Ray (Dan Aykroyd) and Winston (Ernie Hudson) and Janine (Annie Potts, finally getting to put on a uniform) are still around as is Venkman (Bill Murray)… sort of. One gets the impression that Murray crashes the party just long enough for the paycheck and perhaps a week on set. He still fits in a drolly satisfying one-liner or two as only he can.
There’s a lot of characters to keep up with and the script from director Gil Kenan and Jason Reitman develops juggle problems. Rudd and Coon, whose romance was a focal point three years ago, are given the short shrift. Wolfhard and Celeste O’Connor (who hit it off in Oklahoma as well) fare even worse. Same goes for Phoebe’s buddy Podcast (Logan Kim).
The most promising additions are the brand new ones that factor into the plot. Lazy Nadeem (Kumail Nanjiani) sells his dead grandma’s shiny orb to Ray for a quick few bucks. It turns out to be a device that could start a new ice age while also summoning previously captured spirits back to the Big Apple. Nanjiani’s comedic spirits are a high point. Patton Oswalt’s quick work as a library employee in the New York Public Library is one of the better scenes. We have Emily Alyn Lind as a long departed apparition trying to reunite with her loved ones. In the meantime, she plays chess with Phoebe with a slight romantic undertone. Some of this material is decent enough that I wondered whether the wistful remembrances of what entertained us from 1984 is needed anymore.
Saying that Empire is the best sequel in the series is really not saying much. A more appropriate way to say it might be that it’s the least disappointing. Many of the same drawbacks of what came between 1984 and 2024 are present. I did, however, find it funnier than the schmaltzy Afterlife. Maybe there’s a little life left in this franchise after all. Frozen Empire shows that sporadically.
Luc Besson’s Dogman is out in limited release stateside after premiering at the Venice Film Festival last fall and hitting France months ago. The crime thriller casts Caleb Landry Jones (of Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri fame) as a troubled canine lover. Costars include Jojo T. Gibbs, Christopher Denham, Clemens Schick, John Charles Aguilar, and Grace Palma.
Unsurprisingly, many reviews are calling this is a bizarre watch. That’s par for the course from the man who made The Fifth Element and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. Critical reaction is mixed with a 62% RT rating. Unlike those aforementioned titles, don’t look for Dogman to be in the mix for a Visual Effects nom from awards voters. Neither made the Oscar cut though Element nabbed a Sound Editing mention. Despite plenty of kudos for Jones’s performance, don’t expect this to contend for any other prizes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Universal Pictures looks for Monkey Man to make the lion’s share of box office dollars when it opens on April 5th. Dev Patel (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) makes his directorial debut in the action thriller with John Wickish vibes. He also headlines and cowrote the pic that premiered at South by Southwest to general acclaim (the RT score is 92%). Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Sobhita Dhulipala, Sikandar Kher, and Vipin Sharma costar. Jordan Peele serves as a producer.
The effective ads could lure genre enthusiasts searching for Wick style violence, even if Patel is far from a bankable commodity (though expect The Green Knight stans to be first in line). This could be an example of cinephiles being more thrilled to view it than general audiences. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this overperforms and that could mean a high teens to low 20s start. Mid teens might be more likely.
Monkey Man opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
The fifth entry in the MonsterVerse series stomps into theaters this weekend with Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. It is the sole wide release newcomer over the Easter frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The latest battle royale between iconic creatures should easily top the charts. Predecessor Godzilla vs. Kong still faced COVID challenges in 2021 and I think Empire should have no trouble surpassing its low 30s start. My estimate puts this just ahead of 2019’s premiere for Godzilla: King of the Monsters.
After an opening right in line with expectations (more on that below), Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire should slide to second (big weekend for sequels ending in the word empire by the way). How far it dips is worth monitoring. 2016’s Ghostbusters reboot fell 54% after mediocre word-of-mouth in its sophomore outing. 2021’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife eased 45%, but it had the advantage of weekend #2 taking place over the Thanksgiving holiday. I’m basically splitting the difference with Empire experiencing a decline approaching 50%.
Holdover sequels Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4 should populate the three and four slots with mid 40s drops. The five spot should be between Immaculate and Arthur the King.
Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:
1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $52.2 million
2. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
3. Dune: Part Two
Predicted Gross: $11 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
5. Immaculate
Predicted Gross: $3 million
6. Arthur the King
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (March 22-24)
The Ghostbusters franchise has been pretty darn consistent over the last near decade. The aforementioned reboot from 2016 with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig debuted with $46 million. Afterlife kicked off with $44 million. Frozen Empire heated up the charts with $45 million, a bit ahead of my $42.7 million prediction. As mentioned, this is generally where most prognosticators figured this would fall and even at the higher end of that range.
Dune: Part Two was second with $17.6 million, on target with my $17.4 million call. The sci-fi spectacle is up to $233 million after four weeks.
Kung Fu Panda 4 went from 1st to 3rd in its third weekend with $16.5 million, a bit below my $18.2 million call. The animated adventure has amassed $132 million thus far.
Sydney Sweeney’s fright fest Immaculate was fourth with Neon’s highest opening of all time at $5.3 million. I was close at $4.9 million. While this isn’t an overly impressive haul, it does give the studio bragging rights and helps solidify Sweeney’s status as Hollywood’s It Girl of the moment.
Arthur the King rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $3.8 million) for a muted two-week tally of $14 million.
Finally, I didn’t make a projection for the critically acclaimed horror flick Late Night with the Devil. It opened in sixth with $2.8 million on just over 1000 screens and that marks a best ever for IFC Films.
Western The Dead Don’t Hurt marks Viggo Mortensen’s second directorial feature after 2020’s Falling. In addition to his behind the camera work, he’s the star, writer, coproducer, and even composed the score. It premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival and is being readied for a semi-wide May 31st theatrical bow. Vicky Krieps, acclaimed alongside Daniel Day-Lewis for 2017’s Phantom Thread, co-headlines with a supporting cast including Garret Dillahunt, Solly McLeod, and Danny Huston.
Reviews out of Canada were more respectful than gushing with an 85% RT rating. Mortensen, a two-time nominee for Eastern Promises and Captain Fantastic, is unlikely to see any of his many jobs on the project rewarded during awards season. That goes for everything in the picture. If there’s a slight chance for recognition, it would be with Krieps (whose performance is being singled out). The better odds are that The Dead is forgotten by voters a few months from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 2024 edition of South by Southwest recently concluded, but Problemista from Julio Torres premiered at the fest last year. Distributor A24 has at last put it into theaters this month. The quirky pic is written and directed by and stars Torres, a former SNL scribe who also co-created the HBO series Los Espookys. His directorial debut features Tilda Swinton, RZA, Greta Lee, Catalina Saavedra, James Scully, and Isabella Rossellini.
Reviews are mostly complimentary for the black comedy with an 89% RT score and particular kudos for the script and Swinton’s work. The reaction isn’t strong enough for this to have any Oscar viability. Maybe the Indie Spirit Awards will give Torres a nod in the First Screenplay competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Christy Hall’s Daddio isn’t out in theaters until June 28th, but festival goers in Telluride and Toronto checked out the two-hander last fall. Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn make up the cast with the latter playing an NYC cabbie and the former as his fare. It marks the debut for the director who also scripted.
Picked up by Sony Pictures Classics, plenty of critics are hailing both performances as well as Hall’s screenplay. The RT score is 83%. I’m just not convinced this will stick with voters come nomination time. Penn, a two-time winner for Mystic River and Milk, and Johnson (yet to be in contention) could get campaigns. I wouldn’t count on them taking a ride to the 97th ceremony (though Johnson has a better shot with this over Madame Web). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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