Monthly Archives: January 2019

The Prodigy Box Office Prediction

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Orion Pictures hopes horror fans turn out next weekend with the release of The Prodigy. The fright fest casts “Orange Is the New Black” star Taylor Schilling as a mom who thinks her young son might be possessed by a demon. Jackson Robert Scott, most known as Georgie (the kid who got his arm ripped off by Pennywise in It), plays the boy. Nicholas McCarthy directs.

As has been said many times on this blog, this genre always has the possibility to surprise with a larger than anticipated opening. There’s no direct competition for horror watchers, but there’s three other pics debuting that should all premiere with bigger numbers (The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, What Men Want, Cold Pursuit).

The studio would be fortunate to see a rollout like 2016’s The Boy, which managed nearly $11 million for its start. I don’t see it happening and I’ll project it makes a bit over half that figure.

The Prodigy opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million

For my The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/29/the-lego-movie-2-the-second-part-box-office-prediction/

For my What Men Want prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/what-men-want-box-office-prediction/

For my Cold Pursuit prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/cold-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

Cold Pursuit Box Office Prediction

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As they say, revenge is a film best served with Liam Neeson in it and Summit Entertainment hopes that holds true next weekend with Cold Pursuit. The action thriller casts Neeson as a snow plow driver avenging the murder of his son with his particular set of skills. Norwegian director Hans Petter Moland is behind the camera and costars include Laura Dern, Emmy Rossum, Tom Bateman, and William Forsythe.

We are a decade past the star’s career resurgence with the sleeper hit Taken and its two sequels. What followed were $20 million plus openers like Unknown and Non–Stop. The sub genre of Neeson tough guy flicks, however, has seen its grosses dwindle in recent years. A Walk Among the Tombstones, Run All Night, and last year’s The Commuter all debuted in the low double digits to low teens range.

Reviews have been surprisingly strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is at 93%. Several critics have praised an apparent well-placed sense of humor. Yet I’m skeptical that will give Cold Pursuit a hot premiere. I’ll predict this falls right in line with his later entries.

Cold Pursuit opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/29/the-lego-movie-2-the-second-part-box-office-prediction/

For my What Men Want prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/what-men-want-box-office-prediction/

For my The Prodigy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/31/the-prodigy-box-office-prediction/

What Men Want Box Office Prediction

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Paramount is banking on a significant African-American and female audience next weekend for What Men Want, a remake of the 2000 blockbuster What Women Want with Mel Gibson and Helen Hunt. As the title suggests, this is a flip of the original with its lead character being able to hear the inner thoughts of the male species. Taraji P. Henson plays her with costars including Aldis Hodge, Tracy Morgan, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Pete Davidson, and Erykah Badu. Adam Shankman, maker of Bringing Down the House and The Pacifier, directs.

The gimmicky formula could be a success with its target audience. Its source material was a smash, debuting to $33 million and legging out to $182 million overall. Henson has starred in such high-profile hits as Hidden Figures, No Good Deed, and the Think Like a Man pics.

Some of those efforts saw openings in the mid to high 20s and that’s exactly where I see this starting out at.

What Men Want opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million

For my The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/29/the-lego-movie-2-the-second-part-box-office-prediction/

For my Cold Pursuit prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/cold-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

For my The Prodigy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/31/the-prodigy-box-office-prediction/

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part Box Office Prediction

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The Warner Animation Group hopes to build back up its near half billion dollar domestic franchise next weekend with the release of The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. This direct sequel arrives five years after its hit predecessor, though there’s been two spin-offs in the meantime. Mike Mitchell, who made Shrek Forever After and Trolls, takes over directing duties from Christopher Miller and Phil Lord (they wrote the screenplay). Returning voices include Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett (he’s Batman), Charlie Day, Nick Offerman, Alison Brie, and Will Ferrell. Familiar faces joining the voiceover party are aplenty. They include Tiffany Haddish, Maya Rudolph, Channing Tatum, Jonah Hill, Brooklyn Prince, and thespians from the DC Cinematic Universe (Gal Gadot, Margot Robbie, Jason Momoa).

In February of 2014, The Lego Movie earned $69 million out of the gate with an eventual stateside take of $257 million. Our first spin-off, 2017’s The Lego Batman Movie, achieved $53 million for its start and $175 million total. A few months later, The Lego Ninjago Movie was a legitimate disappointment. It premiered with only $20 million and didn’t leg out well ($59 million).

As they were with the first part, reviews are positive as this stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics, however, have noted it doesn’t quite match up to the original. While this should easily debut at #1, I’ll project that it falls short of the 2014 earnings. Topping $50 million is certainly possible, but I’ll go just shy of that number.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million

For my What Men Want prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/what-men-want-box-office-prediction/

For my Cold Pursuit prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/30/cold-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

For my The Prodigy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/31/the-prodigy-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Velvet Buzzsaw

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Premiering at the Sundance Film Festival just before its Friday debut on Netflix is Dan Gilroy’s latest picture Velvet Buzzsaw. The horror satire reunites the writer and filmmaker with his Nightcrawler lead Jake Gyllenhaal in a film said to mercilessly mock the world of art critics and collectors. Several movie critics seem quite impressed. Others are more mixed. The current Rotten Tomatoes score is 82%. Costars include Toni Collette, Gilroy’s spouse and frequent collaborator Rene Russo, and John Malkovich (who must have office space at Netflix with this, Bird Box, and Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil, and Vile).

Reviews suggest Buzzsaw could be quite polarizing. It may have a tough time breaking through with Oscar voters nearly a year from now. That said, both of the director’s previous works nabbed one nomination. 2014’s Nightcrawler was recognized for its Original Screenplay. In my view, it should’ve received more nods than that (especially Gyllenhaal). 2017’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. saw Denzel Washington garner a lead actor spot.

If Velvet has enough strong boosters, another screenplay nomination isn’t totally out of the question. Yet there’s a long road ahead to see whether that’s a possible outcome. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

February 1-3 Box Office Predictions

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It should be an extremely quiet weekend at the box office, as it typically is during the Super Bowl frame. There’s only one wide release out and it’s the Gina Rodriguez led action thriller Miss Bala. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/25/miss-bala-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting Bala to reach double digits and my estimate probably puts it in third place behind current holdovers Glass and The Upside (it could go lower). It’s quite possible that no picture will hit double digits this weekend as the 1-2 combo should hover right around that mark.

The rest of the top five should be held by Aquaman and The Kid Who Would Be King, but with the possibility that Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse could vault over King after its weak debut. I’ll say that happens. It’s also feasible that the drop for Green Book could be insignificant and it could jump into the top five. I’ll put it just behind Spidey, however.

With that, my projections for the uneventful frame ahead:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

3. Miss Bala

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $5 million

5. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (January 25–27)

Glass held the top spot with an expected hefty sophomore dip at $18.8 million, in line with my $19.6 million estimate. The M. Night Shyamalan mashup, with middling audience and critical reaction, has made $73 million (which is nearly three times its meager budget).

The Upside continued its strong holdings in second with $11.9 million (I said $9.8 million) for a three-week tally of $62 million.

Aquaman was third with $7.2 million compared to my $6.4 million prediction. The DC tale is up to a terrific $316 million.

The aforementioned King Arthur based family flick The Kid Who Would Be King got off to a poor start in fourth with just $7.1 million, under my take of $10.8 million.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $5.2 million) for $169 million overall.

Finally, the Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway crime thriller Serenity bombed in eighth position with only $4.4 million. I was a bit higher at $5.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2018 SAG Awards Reaction

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The wealth was spread this evening at the 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards as It provided more clues to how Oscar voters may choose their winners in February. I went 4 for 5 in my predictions and I’m pretty pleased with that because some of these races were quite unpredictable.

The miss was indeed a surprise as Emily Blunt took Supporting Actress for her work in A Quiet Place. She wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar and the exclusion of Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) here was significant. Ironically, the Blunt victory over the Academy nominated Amy Adams in Vice or Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) may give King a boost come Oscar time.

As for the other acting categories, it was another trophy for Mahershala Ali in Green Book for Supporting Actor as he continues to solidify his status as the front-runner. Same goes for Glenn Close in The Wife in lead actress. In lead actor, that’s a bit murkier as Rami Malek took the Actor for Bohemian Rhapsody. I still consider the Oscar race close between him and Christian Bale in Vice. Bradley Cooper’s chances for A Star is Born have dimmed even more.

It was a bad night for that picture as it went 0 for 4. The top Ensemble race went to the sprawling cast of Black Panther. What does that do for its Oscar chances? Truth be told, I think not much as the victor here often doesn’t match the Academy’s Best Picture recipient.

There’s your recap, folks! Now it’s onto more speculation for Oscar…