Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway lend their star power to the thriller Serenity, out next weekend. The pic was originally slated for a fall 2018 release before its delay to January, which can often serve as a dumping ground for certain titles. Steven Knight directs with Diane Lane, Jason Clarke, Djimon Hounsou, and Jeremy Strong in the supporting cast.
The studio seems to be treating this as an afterthought. Marketing has been pretty slim. While McConaughey has had some hits since his Oscar win five years ago, there’s been some flops including FreeStateofJones, Gold, and WhiteBoyRick. Hathaway has a better track record as of late, but I’m not convinced her participation will help matters.
Serenity has a $25 million budget, so at least its potential losses shouldn’t be too significant. Like the trio of previous McConaughey titles, I don’t have this hitting double digits.
Serenity opening weekend prediction: $6.2 million
For my TheKidWhoWouldBeKing prediction, click here:
It’s been two weeks since I’ve made Oscar predictions and it’s fair to say a lot has happened since then. The show never did find a host, but a host of significant precursors happened. There were the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The Directors Guild named their five nominees and they typically nail four of the five eventual nominees in that race. The last 14 days of action have changed my #1 rankings in some very big categories:
After consistently being ranked at #1, AStarIsBorn now falls to second behind Roma.
Keeping with the theme, Christian Bale’s work in Vice vaults to first in Actor ahead of Bradley Cooper in Star.
Once again, a Star dips from the top spot as Glenn Close (TheWife) is first in Actress above Lady Gaga.
After Globe and Critics victories, Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse is #1 in Animated Feature instead of Pixar’s Incredibles2.
You can can read all the rankings below and on Sunday, I will reveal my final picks for nominees ahead of Tuesday morning’s announcements!
BestPicture
1. Roma (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. GreenBook (PR: 4)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. BlackPanther (PR: 6)
6. TheFavourite (PR: 3)
7. Vice (PR: 8)
8. BohemianRhapsody (PR: 10)
9. IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 7)
OtherPossibilities:
10. FirstMan (PR: 9)
11. MaryPoppinsReturns (PR: 11)
12. AQuietPlace (PR: 13)
13. FirstReformed (PR: 15)
14. CrazyRichAsians (PR: Not Ranked)
15. CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
EighthGrade
BestDirector
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, GreenBook (PR: 6)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, TheFavourite (PR: 4)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
7. Ryan Coogler, BlackPanther (PR: 5)
8. Barry Jenkins, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 7)
9. Damien Chazelle, FirstMan (PR: 8)
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, ColdWar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Schrader, FirstReformed
BestActor
1. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody (PR: 4)
4. Viggo Mortensen, GreenBook (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, FirstReformed (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, AtEternity’sGate (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Gosling, FirstMan (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, TheOldMan & TheGun (PR: 10)
10. Lucas Hedges, BoyErased (PR: 9)
BestActress
1. Glenn Close, TheWife (PR: 3)
2. Lady Gaga, AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, TheFavourite (PR: 2)
4. Melissa McCarthy, CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, MaryPoppinsReturns (PR: 5)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
10. Elsie Fisher, EighthGrade (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, BenIsBack
BestSupportingActor
1. Mahershala Ali, GreenBook (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, AStarIsBorn (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, BeautifulBoy (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
7. Michael B. Jordan, BlackPanther (PR: 6)
8. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: 10)
9. Nicholas Hoult, TheFavourite (PR: 8)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Russell Hornsby, TheHateUGive
BestSupportingActress
1. Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, TheFavourite (PR: 4)
4. Emma Stone, TheFavourite (PR: 3)
5. Claire Foy, FirstMan (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, MaryQueenofScots (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, BoyErased (PR: 8)
8. Michelle Yeoh, CrazyRichAsians (PR: Not Ranked)
A juvenile rendering of the King Arthur tale hits theaters next weekend with the family fantasy TheKidWhoWouldBeKing. It comes from director Joe Cornish, whose 2011 debut AttacktheBlock (marking the debut of John Boyega) was a critical favorite. This marks his awaited sophomore effort. The title character is played by newcomer Louis Ashbourne Serkis, son of motion capture king Andy. Costars include Tom Taylor, Rebecca Ferguson, and Patrick Stewart.
Early reviews are encouraging with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%. It could help that the family friendly holiday holdovers have started to wane. That said, the marketing campaign hasn’t been robust and followers of the filmmaker’s first feature belong in a niche market.
I think Kid could manage to hit double digits while teens could be a reach. That might get it to second place next weekend behind the sophomore frame of Glass.
TheKidWhoWouldBeKing opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
The four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame brings just one new release and it’s a big one as M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass debuts. The melding of the director’s past hits Unbreakable and Split looks to achieve January’s second largest debut ever. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:
While reviews have been mixed at best, I have a hunch Glass could be fairly critic proof (think Venom from a few months back). My low 70s estimate for its Friday to Monday performance easily has it dominating the charts and nabbing the month’s runner-up status as far as all-time openers behind 2015’s AmericanSniper.
With no new wide releases out, TheUpside should fall to second after its better than anticipated premiere (more on that below). Aquaman, ADog’sWayHome, and Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse should fill out the rest of the top five.
My estimates are as follows and keep in mind they’re for the four days of grosses:
1. Glass
Predicted Gross: $72.1 million
2. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million
3. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. ADog’sWayHome
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
BoxOfficeResults (January11–13)
As mentioned, TheUpside had just what its name suggested. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama surprised prognosticators like me with a healthy start of $20.3 million, easily surpassing my $11.6 million projection. It’s further proof of Hart’s potency at the box office and marks the first #1 opening for studio STX Entertainment.
Aquaman was second after three weeks on top with $17.3 million, in line with my $17.7 million prediction. The impressive total stands at $287 million.
ADog’sWayHome had a so-so start in third with $11.2 million – not quite reaching my guesstimate of $12.8 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The animated superhero tale (fresh off a Golden Globe win for Best Animated Film) made $9 million to bring its tally to $147 million.
EscapeRoom was close behind in fifth with $8.9 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $32 million.
MaryPoppinsReturns fell to sixth with $7.6 million (I went higher with $8.8 million). The Disney sequel has made $151 million.
The Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic OntheBasisofSex expanded nationwide and placed eighth with $6 million. I went with a little more at $7.9 million.
Finally, the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas bombed badly in 13th with just $2.3 million compared to my take of $3.4 million.
The Critics Choice Awards aired last night and the ceremony has been a harbinger at times for the Oscar race ahead. Notably the show in 2017 ended up matching the Academy’s winners in all major races. So what message did reviewers send yesterday? Well some of it was mixed and some of it solidified certain selections in their positions come gold statue time.
It was a very good evening for Roma. The Mexican drama won Best Picture and its filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron won for his direction and cinematography. In those latter two races, Cuaron is the strong favorite to take the Oscar. Picture is still not assured as it faces competition from AStarIsBorn and maybe BlacKkKlansman (which did go home empty-handed yesterday). I’ve had Star placed at #1 consistently in my Oscar rankings. Don’t be surprised if Roma grabs that slot this week when I update my predictions.
Christian Bale was victorious in Actor for Vice. Coupled with his Golden Globe win the week prior, it could give him a slight edge over Bradley Cooper in Star and Rami Malek for BohemianRhapsody. Yet it’s competitive.
So is Best Actress and last night proved it. There was the rare tie and it was between Lady Gaga in Star and Glenn Close as TheWife. I’d say it’s a coin flip between them at the Oscars and I wouldn’t totally count out Olivia Colman in TheFavourite.
The supporting winners matched the Golden Globes with Mahershala Ali (GreenBook) and Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk). Even though King was surprisingly not nominated at the upcoming SAG Awards, both actors look like front-runners in their respective categories.
BealeStreet also took Adapted Screenplay, giving it a boost in that race over the slightly more favored BlacKkKlansman. In Original Screenplay, Paul Schrader notched a big win for FirstReformed. I’m feeling more confident it makes the final five for the Academy.
The Critics Choice voters also chose Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse over Pixar’s Incredibles2 in Animated Film like the Globes did. That’s more fuel to the fire that Spidey could get that Oscar win and give Pixar a rare loss in that race.
Finally, BlackPanther had a solid showing – winning Visual Effects, Production Design, and Costume Design. FirstMan took Editing while Vice was honored for its Makeup.
I’ll have my updates Oscar predictions up later this week with final estimates up on Sunday prior to Tuesday’s announcement. Stay tuned!
One week ago, we had a Golden Globes surprise when AStarIsBorn had an unexpectedly bad night. The Freddie Mercury biopic BohemianRhapsody was a hit with the Hollywood Foreign Press and that was much to the detriment of Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut. Rhapsody took Best Picture (Drama) and Rami Malek won Actor in the drama category over Cooper. Furthermore, it was Glenn Close winning Actress for TheWife over Lady Gaga. The only race Star won was Best Original Song for the Cooper/Gaga duet “Shallow”.
The next question is obvious: do the Globe snubs hurt Oscar chances? The quick answer: perhaps not. It’s worth noting that in this decade, the Best Picture Drama recipient from the Globes has matched the Best Picture Academy winner three out of eight times (Argo, 12YearsaSlave, Moonlight).
I have had Star ranked as my #1 choice in my weekly forecasts for Oscar nominees since I started doing it in late August. It’s never changed. That said, it’s always been a soft front-runner. I do not think Bohemian will win the Oscar for Best Picture. It’s only in recent days that I’ve come to believe it’ll definitely be nominated.
The brightest challenger, in my view, is Roma. Alfonso Cuaron won the Globe for his direction over Cooper. I believe he is looking solid for the Oscar victory. One thing to keep an eye on this evening is the Critics Choice Awards. They matched the Oscar in every major category last year. If Star has another sub par evening there, look for even more chatter about its prospects dimming.
For the moment, the Globes could prove to be an anomaly for the film’s possibilities with the Academy. However, it’s well worth monitoring how these other precursors play out.
When it debuts over the MLK four-day holiday weekend, M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass will easily break into the number one spot. Questions about its potential ceiling are very real. The superhero thriller mixes the casts of two of the filmmaker’s best known works – 2000’s Unbreakable and 2017’s Split. That means James McAvoy, Bruce Willis, Samuel L. Jackson, Spencer Treat Clark and Anya-Taylor Joy are along for the ride as well as Sarah Paulson joining this cinematic universe. No other movie opens wide against it.
Just over 18 years ago, Unbreakable was Night’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to his breakthrough smash hit TheSixthSense. Audiences had a mixed reaction at the time, but it managed a five-day Thanksgiving haul of $46 million before a final domestic gross of $95 million. Its reputation has grown in many circles in time. Two years ago, Split served as a major comeback vehicle for the director with a $40 million start as it legged out to $138 million.
I believe the positive response for Split will earn this impressive results. It only helps that it’s still fresh in the minds of audiences, including the ending that set up this picture. Word-of-mouth will determine the rest.
Glass will not shatter this holiday weekend’s record, which is held by AmericanSniper at $107 million. Earning the #2 honors over MLK should be a breeze as that’s currently held by RideAlong at $48 million.
Prognostications have this nabbing anywhere between $50-75 million from Friday to Monday. I have a hunch the higher end of that range is the route to go.
*On the eve of its premiere, I’m downgrading from $72.1 million to $58.1 million
Glass opening weekend prediction: $58.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The Director’s Guild of America is a reliable guide as to who the Academy may nominate come Oscar time. The consistency in the DGA selections has been remarkable over the last five years. In that time, the DGA’s picks match the Academy’s selections at a ratio of 4/5 every single year. And their picks definitely mean a whole lot as to whether the filmmaker’s movie will get a Best Picture nod.
Today the DGA unveiled their five directors nominated and they are:
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Let’s begin with the Best Picture race. Looking over the films made by each director that’s been nominated for the past five years, all 20 of them went on to receive a Best Picture nod. Bottom line: all five of the movies listed above appear to be locks in the 5-10 pictures that will be honored.
In my view – Cooper, Cuaron, and Lee are virtual certainties for inclusion in the Academy’s directing race. When I made my latest round of weekly Oscar predictions last Thursday, I did not have Farrelly or McKay in. Instead, I went with Ryan Coogler for Black Panther and Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite.
That forecast runs contrary to the 4/5 ratio that we’ve witnessed for the last half decade. That means adjustments might be made in my next estimates this Thursday. I’m starting to think Farrelly may have a better shot at this juncture than McKay. Of Lanthimos and Cooper being the odd DGA man out who gets in the Oscar pool, that’s an awfully close call and I’ll probably debate that until post time.
The DGA, if history proves true, provided us with five movies that are in the Oscar race. As for the final five for Director, that’s in question. However, it’s probably wise to think four of them get in.
Three newbies make their way to the screen this weekend as canine tale ADog’sWayHome, Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama TheUpside, and the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Even with the trio of openings, it appears Aquaman will glide into a fourth straight weekend atop the charts with a high teens take. The superhero saga’s reign will certainly end the following weekend with Glass being unveiled.
Other titles will likely struggle to reach the teens. I have Dog’s managing a #2 showing with TheUpside not far behind.
Replicas appears to be getting dumped and my $3.4 million projection leaves it well outside the top five. We have an expansion with OntheBasisofSex, the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic that’s performed well in limited release and is slated for approximately 2000 screens Friday. I’ll put its number at $7.9 million. I believe that gets it to a 7th place rollout.
Returnees EscapeRoom and MaryPoppinsReturns are my picks for the rest of the high-five and here’s the estimates:
1. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
2. ADog’sWayHome
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
3. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. EscapeRoom
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. MaryPoppinsReturns
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
BoxOfficeResults (January4–6)
As anticipated, Aquaman logged another frame in first place with $31 million, topping my $27.9 million projection for an impressive $260 million three-week total.
New horror thriller EscapeRoom made off with a terrific $18.2 million start in second, more than doubling its meager $9 million budget.
MaryPoppinsReturns fell to third in its third weekend with $15.8 million compared to my higher $18.7 million prediction. Total tally is $138 million.
Bumblebee was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.2 million) as it sniffs the century mark at $97 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $13.1 million, slinging beyond my $10.9 million forecast. It’s made $133 million thus far.
Wow. Well, the Golden Globes were going according to script for the vast majority of its running time… until the last 20 minutes or so. It was a huge night for both BohemianRhapsody and GreenBook, with the former’s final win being quite the shocker.
The Queen biopic won in an upset for Best Film (Drama) over the heavily favored AStarIsBorn. Less surprising was its star Rami Malek’s Best Actor (Drama) victory, though I picked Bradley Cooper.
In the other upset, Glenn Close took Best Actress (Drama) for TheWife over Lady Gaga in Star. While the Cooper/Gaga musical drama predictably won Best Song for “Shallow”, that was the only statue for it. That’s surprising.
All in all, I went 10/14 on my picks. I was chugging right along until the Close, Malek, and Bohemian victories.
The other race I missed was GreenBook taking Screenplay over TheFavourite. The race relations pic also won for Best Film (Musical/Comedy) and Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali.
As for the other categories I correctly called:
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Actor (Musical/Comedy): Christian Bale, Vice (it’s only win despite a leading six nods)
Supporting Actress: Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Animated Film: Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Score: FirstMan
So… what does this mean for the Oscars? It could mean a lot. I have felt that AStarIsBorn and Cooper and Gaga were the soft favorites. That could still be true. I’m still a bit skeptical Malek wins the Oscar, but Bale is a different story. Bottom line: Best Actor is a competitive three-way race.
So is Best Actress. Close’s win could mean the Academy’s race will end up closer than anticipated. And Colman is a factor, too.
Ali and King helped solidify their status as supporting front-runners. So did Cuaron in the directing race.
To Best Picture… I believe the unexpected Star loss could ironically boost its Oscar chances for the big prize. Perhaps the Academy voters will feel they wish to go a different way. As for Rhapsody, I had yet to predict it would even get a nomination. You can definitely expect that to change come Thursday in my weekly predictions. I feel the biggest Star competition is Roma rather than GreenBook at the moment.
So that’s my first blush reaction on a night when Bohemian was a champion. And finally – I want to hang out with Carol Burnett. That’s all for now, folks!
